The Lightning were bounced last week in Game 7 of their opening series against the Canadiens, in what was one of the most evenly matched series the NHL has seen in a long time. Still, it was a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions.
The Canadiens are at the beginning of their competitive window and are surging towards what could become a special era of hockey in Montreal, while the Lightning are on the downslope from their best era in franchise history. With the window to win closing and four straight first-round exits, it’s time to start asking how much longer the Lightning can remain a top team in the NHL.
The Lightning have been among the gold standard in the NHL for the past ten years, winning two Stanley Cups, reaching three Stanley Cup Finals, and making a fourth appearance in 2015. On top of that, they have sustained regular-season success and made hard decisions to let top players move to other teams.
All the while, they have found ways to replace the players who have moved on, either internally or through trades and free agency. Darren Raddysh is a great example of a free agent find who fits in seamlessly with the Lightning.
But with his pending free agency, plus Kucherov being 14 months away from free agency as well, and an aging core, it’s fair to wonder whether the salary cap, their aging stars, and a ton of playoff hockey have finally caught up to them.
Despite their stars aging, Tampa Bay’s core remains elite, and many of their best players are firmly in their primes, including Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel. Kucherov is on the wrong side of 30 but remains among the NHL’s best offensive players, and Andrei Vasilevskiy still gives the team elite goaltending. But are they still good enough to compete for a Cup?
At some point, the mileage on the players becomes a concern. Just look at what happened to the Penguins, Blackhawks and Kings after their Stanley Cup runs in the 2010s. All three teams had a few years of quick playoff appearances before their postseason run ended as they tried to hold on to their last bit of relevance. In all of those cases, the wear and tear caught up with the players. The veterans then aged out or moved on, and rough times followed.
It’s an inevitability in hockey; everyone ages out eventually. Tampa Bay is in the early stages of that cycle.
Not to mention, many members of the Lightning don’t get around the ice the way they once did, particularly on defense, which hurts the Lightning’s overall team speed and depth. Speaking of depth, it’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay replenishing it the way it has in the past, given that it has sent many futures out the door in win-now moves, which have also eroded its salary cap flexibility. Tampa Bay has done a good job of finding cheap replacements, but that becomes harder every year as depth pieces depart due to cap pressures.
The Lightning don’t have many high-end prospects in the pipeline and have one of the weakest prospect pools in the NHL, ranking 24th in The Athletic’s prospect rankings. While that ranking is an improvement from 29th place in 2025, it isn’t anything to write home about, and the Lightning don’t appear to have a ton of help coming in the way of prospects.
Forward Conor Geekie looks like a gamer after scoring at a point-per-game pace in the AHL this season. The 2022 11th overall pick was one of the pieces of the Mikhail Sergachev trade with Utah and could be ready for a full-time NHL role next season, which would be huge for the Lightning.
Tampa Bay would love a similar timeline for forward Sam O’Reilly, but he is likely a few years away from full-time NHL duty. The 2024 first-round pick (32nd overall) is in the midst of a terrific playoff run with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL, but he probably needs a year or two of AHL seasoning before he’ll be ready for the NHL. O’Reilly was just named the winner of the Red Tilson Trophy, awarded annually to the Ontario Hockey League’s most outstanding player, and is chasing a third straight OHL title and a second straight Memorial Cup.
Those big games will bode well for O’Reilly’s development, but his offensive ceiling has been limited, and he hasn’t significantly increased his scoring over the last two years. Wheeler projects O’Reilly as a 3C in the NHL, which is great, but if the Lightning want to extend their window of contention, they’ll need more from him.
The final point to consider when it comes to Lightning’s competition is the division they play in. The Buffalo Sabres have finally arrived and appear to be the real deal. The same can be said for the Habs, who are poised to go on a long run as a potential powerhouse. Ottawa still boasts a solid core of young players, and the Red Wings have some nice pieces that are itching to get to the NHL, and you figure they will put it all together at some point.
Then there are the Panthers, who have a deep core of champions and will be hungry to return to the playoffs next season after an injury-riddled campaign this year. It’s impossible to guess what the division will look like next year, but even the Bruins and Maple Leafs don’t feel like they are going to go away easily. The Atlantic Division is an absolute buzzsaw, and next year could be the toughest yet.
Can Tampa Bay overcome all of these obstacles and roll back the clock? Only time will tell, but extending their window starts this summer, and they will have their work cut out for them. GM Julian BriseBois has proven doubters wrong in the past, as his club has consistently adapted to challenges and kept the window to win open.
It helps to have the best coach in the game behind the bench in Jon Cooper, but at some point, the magic runs out, and a team’s window of opportunity to win slams shut. For the Lightning, that day is coming; it’s just a matter of when.
The window closed 3 years ago but no one with the Lighting has figured that out yet. Most of this roster is old and stale. Anyone not named Hagel can bounce.
So Kucherov, Vasilevskiy, Guentzel, Hedman, and Point are all done? You’d make a great GM.
The Lightnings lack of speed was more than evident in the MTL series, A bit of a retool is in order for sure, They have to get younger.
Unfortunately Coop and JBB’s love of Vets has anchored the Bolts with slower older Vets like Hedman, McD, and Gourde. Who have all lost a step or two. And all three are here for at least three more years with Full NTC. Not like anyone will want to trade for those albatross contracts anyway even if they waived their NTC. That 2nd Rounder for Perry was pure stupidity by JBB.
Pelletier’s deal is one way the next two years and Geekie is ready so both will be on the Team next year. They also played well together on the same line in Syracuse. James and his strong skating will be more prominent next year but another young fast skater would be great for this Team. I’d love to see JBB trade for a disgruntled but extremely quick skater and player Brad Lambert. Stick a Right Handed Lambert on the third Offensive Line and it makes us competitive with those quicker younger Teams. I wouldn’t mind him on a Line with Pelletier and Geekie. The only issue is they’ve all played C but none are good on face offs. Paul is the only good face off man on the team. Point used to be good but has declined severely over the years from a 54-55 win % to like a 45 win %. Resigning Raddysh is a must but not a lot of holes to fill after that.
@Kenny – Gourde?! Are you kidding me? Gourde was keeping up with James & Goncalves with ease. Gourde is a freakin’ energizer bunny. I wish more guys had Gourde’s mentality. He was solid overall and was an instrumental part of one of the best shutdown lines in the entire league. Also, Gourde’s contract is nothing close to an “albatross” especially when you’re paying him well under $3MM and with the cap increasing for the foreseeable future. It’s a blip on the cap. I 100% disagree with your assessment on Gourde.
Hedman & McDonagh might have lost a step to a certain extent. Can’t say much on Hedman this season because of the unfortunate circumstances he was dealing with. McDonagh missed some time this season because of a freak foot injury but statistically speaking, he was one of the best defenders in the playoffs for Tampa. While guys like Lilliberg, Crozier, & Carlile were at the bottom statistically. They allowed more goals then prevented. Carlile I wouldn’t extend to a new contract this summer.
As for Pelletier and Geekie, they just haven’t shown enough when given the opportunity on the main roster. Yes, Pelletier had a great season in the AHL but that doesn’t necessarily translate to the NHL. Geekie is only 21 years of age but still has much work to do before becoming a NHL full-timer. He’s looking more like a bottom six prospect at this point in time.
As for Raddysh, to me, he isn’t a must sign. You only sign him for the right terms, otherwise move on then. This season was a flash in the pan for him, if we’re being realistic. He’s not a 70+ point player & more than likely, never will hit it again. He’s a 30 to 40 point guy at best as I expect a 30 point drop next season. Raddysh in the playoffs was highly disappointing as he underperformed significantly, was inconsistent & lacked urgency throughout the playoffs. Raddysh is a buyer beware condition.
All that happened is that Vasilevskiy wasn’t in his best form in the playoffs.
Coops keeps pulling off miracles. Under him, Hagel, Moser and Raddysh have blossomed into star players. As long as he is the coach, they are guaranteed to at least make the playoffs.
A retool is likely, but a rebuild is the best option. Grab a pile of picks, and do it all again. Just like after St Louis, Richards, and Lecavalier retired/moved on
The Lightning are still relevant and a sure lock for the Playoffs. GMJB just needs to tweak the roster a bit and priority #1 is locking down Raddysh long term.
They are in a tough spot. They’re good enough to get into PO consistently yet they’ve had how many 1st rnd exits in recent years? They’re like PIT after 2 cups in a row kinda spot rn
They really should try to cash in on Kuchurov and Hedman. Keep Raddysh.
Kuch and Hedman to SJ for 2nd OA and Eklund and a B prospect.(example)
That deal wouldn’t work under any circumstances. While I understand the example you’re providing, acquiring Kucherov alone would require a starting price of two first-round picks, with additional assets needed. Kucherov is undeniably one of the top three players in the league—second in my opinion—and the only players of comparable trade value would be McDavid or MacKinnon. Anything less than that would undervalue him. However, it’s worth noting that Kucherov won’t be traded under any scenario, as he still has several elite years ahead of him.
lol ofc you think Kuch is the 2nd best player in the league
As a sharks fan I’d pay that price (it’s very low) but in general I’d hope they’d stay well away from this. Well well away.
Agree but Hedman has a full NTC and Kuch has a partial NTC and I bet SJ is on it. Kuch’s starting point is 2 #1’s, 2 top 5 prospects, and one very good young player already on a Team’s Roster. You do have to take this into consideration. When JBB sits down this Summer with Kuch and his Agent what if they don’t want to sign an extension in Tampa. What if Kuch wants to hit the Market to see his top dollar value. What if he wants to go to a better contender because he thinks Tampa’s run is done. Then JBB is almost forced to trade Kuch. I’m a Bolts fan in Tampa and many of us have discussed this as a realistic possibility.
As for Hedman I’d give him away for a Shooter Tudor.
He’s lost two steps as age has hit him hard. He was slow two Seasons ago, and just God awful this year when not injured. Now he has a mental issue I hope he works through. Even if he waived his full NTC no one is taking on three more years of Hedman at $8M per.
Tampa’s championship window remains open, with a few more years as a contender before facing the need for a rebuild. It’s worth noting that Montreal secured the series by a single goal—one pivotal moment that could have changed the entire narrative. Montreal certainly didn’t dominate the series, and there’s a case to be made that Tampa’s mistakes played a bigger role in their loss than Montreal’s performance. By metrics and margins, the Tampa-Montreal series ranks among the three closest matchups in NHL playoff history.
Moving forward, Tampa must address their secondary scoring, strengthen their right defensive side, and focus on regaining full health. The absence of Victor Hedman and Pontus Holmberg during the playoffs was undeniably significant. Additionally, not having the Girgensons-Gourde-Holmberg line—a shutdown trio statistically ranked among the best in the league—hurt their chances substantially. Hedman’s presence alone might have been enough to alter key outcomes.
On top of all this, Tampa technically boasts a younger roster compared to teams like Colorado, Vegas, and Florida. It would be unwise to count them out just yet.
Well the biggest difference in the TB-Hab series was that Montreal is on the rise and the Bolts are in decline. LeHabs will be better yet next year, and Tampa has to sell off a couple of older and slower players or get worse.
You still don’t seem to be aware that the Bolts have gone out in the first round the past four years. But hey, the series was one of the closest ever. At least you get to hang that banner.
@Dog – I find it astonishing that you criticize others while speaking about awareness, which is highly ironic considering that your understanding exemplifies superficiality and ineptitude.
Furthermore, I’m fully aware of Tampa’s four first-round eliminations, each occurring under different circumstances and conditions. However, that level of detail is likely beyond your comprehension.
They still have some high end talent for sure, but the division keeps getting better every day. With Florida likely to be as hungry as ever, the bolts are no lock for a playoff spot.
Where to begin…..
Short answer, the window is nowhere near closed…exclamation point.
The teams primary problem was, unlike the Panthers the last few years, the lightning won cups and had a flat salary cap, which cost them players and continuity.
In 2023, the outplayed Toronto all series and lost the series. In 24 and 25, with a weaker roster, they lost in the first round to the eventual cup winners. Yes losing is losing, but you did not get upset or lay an egg in a gimmee series.
In 2026, they turned the corner. When Hedman, McDonough and Cernak went down, Cooper was forced to play the younger and faster defensemen, who shined. Just look at the record. They spent little time in their own end and had points in like 20 in a row.
In addition to the young D (Crozier, Carlyle and Dastous) playing bigger roles, Dominic James brought the it factor to the 3rd/4th line. Again, looking at facts, the record the team had when he played and did NOT play tells a big story.
I love Cooper, but could not stand the excuses all year about the schedule, guys being tired and trying their best, when they played some uninspired hockey for stretches. Yes, you will not win all the games, but you will only get where you want to go by conditioning yourself to play hard/full 60 minutes every night. (See Carolina and Vasi quote). There clearly is some entitlement there. That message has to change and the uneven effort has to stop.
They win the Montreal series if they play games 1 – 5 like they played 6 and 7. They have the horses and moxy to play oppressive hockey, they just play 60 to 70% most nights, with their east west BS hockey. It really is that simple.
Geekie will step in and add some jump and size. O’reilly will not be far away. I bet he makes the team out of camp. JB does not expect O’Reilly to play much in AHL.
Cooper has to do what he was forced to do last year, that is play the faster and younger D. Trade Cernak, let McDonough play with Crozier or Carlyle and he will not get hemmed in so often. That was brutal vs Montreal. Cernak and McDonough simply can not play at that speed. Yes they defend hard, but its a wasted shift, as the only victory is not getting scored on. They offer little in puck movement and offensive support, especially playing together.
Paul replaces Girgensons, and again, you get younger very quick. This allows you to put Gourde on the wing and keep him out of the face off dot. He and Holmberg will be great on forecheck.
Point missed 30 games, was still on a 30 goal pace. He will find his game. The idea that him at 28 somehow lost it is retarded.
You hear all this crazy crap about Vasi getting older. Bobrowsky, just won 2 cups north of 36. Bob could not hold Vasi’s jock when he was 32. Vasi locks down the goal for 5 more years minimal, without a major injury.
All in all, all the haters and whiners can wish ill upon the best run franchise in the NHL the last 15 years. Don’t discount the Finnish phenom they drafted a few years back coming around to make a splash.
As for Hedman, on the human side, wish him all the best. From team side, huge risk right now. He is already on downside of career…so much wildcard with him. He looked horrible every game he played last year. If he finds his game and edge again, he will be found money, otherwise, there is a risk he becomes a huge distraction for the team.
Cooper enough hockey Gods BS and excuses, play oppressive 60 minute games each night. If you do, you will raise another cup!
Ok, but they still have to get younger and faster, and you only got rid of Cernick and a 4th liner.
And as for Hedman, he may be fortunate that it is all in his head man……
Get well soon Victor!
Who else is slow? I get the generalization of getting faster, but getting faster is not just skating, it is moving the puck. Having younger guys who can win puck races and battles and turn the pucks the other way makes you faster.
That is how they played without Hedman, McDonough and Cernak.
Like Coop and Paul Mo say all the time, we all play the same style…get the puck up and out of your zone.
I know you have better things to do, but sample some recent playoff games and watch McDonough and Cernak in their own end…That is playing slow.
Watch any game from the streak, they spent minimal time in their own end. Carlyle, Dastous, Crozier, Moser, Raddysh and even Liliberg all able to skate pucks up and join plays.
Good points especially on the D. I’ve been saying this all year. We had the best record mid Season when slow Hedman, McD, and Cernak were out. Love Moser, Crozier (and Right Handed), D’Astous, and have to resign Raddy. JBB has F’d this D over because for the next 3 years Hedman, McD, and Cernak all have full NTC and be half of this D. I’d buy out Hedman if he is even slower next year or his mental issues get worse.
Actually Cernak played well with D’Astous before McD came back and they would probably be a good pairing the next 2 years. JBB is a F’n moron for giving an almost 40 year old McD a 3 year extension. It didn’t kick in until this Season. Every time I said for JBB to move him at the deadline this year for a younger player or a good face off man all the old school Bolts fans said we need his “experience”. Experience doesn’t mean 💩 when you can’t hold the Blue Line from being easily taken by opponents faster skaters. Experience doesn’t mean 💩 when you’re behind getting down on the Offensive rush and back for a Defensive rush. Experience doesn’t mean 💩when you’re too slow to get to, and move the puck out of their zone and up the ice. We are anchored with these two fossils of Hedman and McD, while blocking Crozier and Maxim.
Also Pelletier will be on this Team the next two years. His contract this year was two way but it’s only one way the next two years. He led the AHL all year, or almost all year, in scoring and top 10 in +/-. He will bring good offense on a bottom line. Probably have Geekie on the same line as they played very well together on the same line this year. Those two will take Bjorkstrand and Perry’s Roster spots. That Perry trade for a 2nd was pure JBB stupidity as well. It’ll be an interesting Offseason. I just hope JBB doesn’t F it up.
Tampa is still a playoff team and will be back in the playoffs again next year. Their Stanley Cup window looks to be closed though. Montreal, Buffalo look to be the next wave of tough teams from the east. Detroit has a stable of youngsters that just need to learn how to win. So the east is going to be a hard road for the next couple of years
Statistically your comment applies to every team. Of those 3, montreal scares me the most. They won a tough series, earned serious street cred to grind one out like they did.
Wouldn’t it be funny if they went on to represent the east and even win the cup…. TBD…
What is funny, is the article should be more about the panthers. Their core is much older, with a goalie hole. Marchand and Ekblad at plus 35…. Seth Jones reverting to the mean….
A post titled “Can The Lightning Remain Competitive For Much Longer?” should be about the Panthers? That is beautiful logic.
Well you know, hes a Lightning fan, so the Panthers are stuck in his head rent free. And ofc Montreal “scares” him the most, gotta make that 1st round exit look as impressive as possible lol