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Blackhawks Notes: Sharp, Saad, DeBrincat

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus (along with various Chicago media) tweeted quite a bit from the beginning of the Blackhawks Fan Convention as players and personnel were available to the media. It was a reunion of sorts as two former players returned to field questions. Patrick Sharp returns to the place where he saw much success, saying that he had some of his “best years” playing for Joel Quenneville in Chicago. Lazerus tweets that Quenneville could use Sharp with Jonathan Toews, and to expect the veteran winger to see top six minutes, which may not thrill some fans.  Brandon Saad confirmed that he would be on a line with Toews, which was the belief of many after Stan Bowman swung a deal to re-acquire the forward. The Athletic’s Scott Powers tweeted video of different interviews which included Quenneville, Patrick Kane talking about the Panarin trade, and Sharp’s return to Chicago.

  • Several hockey analysts are “tapping the brakes” when declaring Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat as the next big thing. The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton and Chicago SportsNet’s Tracey Myers both covered this, with Clinton adding onto Myers’ analysis.  First, the salary cap limits who the Hawks can add to the roster, and the only player as of now who can shuffle to the AHL without passing through waivers is Nick Schmaltz. Should Marian Hossa go onto the LTIR, more than enough money would be available for many in Rockford to go onto the roster. Second, head coach Joel Quenneville isn’t exactly one to hand out ice time to kids. Clinton notes that DeBrincat is only 19, and the only players under 21 to see significant ice time during Quenneville’s tenure were Kane and Toews. Of course, Clinton notes, Toews was the captain and Kane was a budding superstar. Further, Clinton writes that Schmaltz, considered one of Chicago’s best prospects, struggled to stay in the lineup last season, showing that cracking the NHL lineup and then staying on it is far more difficult than it appears. Realistically, Clinton believes that the Hawks have the luxury to “over-season” players and allow them time to grow into a role–something that DeBrincat may very well do.

Is The Window Closing For The Chicago Blackhawks?

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FanRag’s Carolyn Wilke outlines a few questions Chicago may have as they catch their breath following a head-spinning offseason. One such question Wilke revolves around general manager Stan Bowman who vowed changes following the Hawks’ four game sweep at the hands of the Nashville Predators. She points out that Bowman has been made to be the architect of the modern day dynasty, but trading away first round picks may be burning the Hawks. To be fair, Bowman’s deal with Arizona in 2015 to acquire Antoine Vermette netted a Stanley Cup–while yielding a first round pick.

But the past two exits, Wilke writes, may cast some doubt on Bowman’s abilities should they get bounced early again. The depth pieces he’s drafted or signed have not provided the help they need to sustain contender status. While Bowman has done a masterful job of keeping the team together, it’s often overlooked that a lot of the heavy lifting, and drafting was done by his predecessor, Dale Tallon, who was unceremoniously dumped in 2009. Worse, it’s well known that Bowman, and not Tallon, might have been more responsible for the qualifying offer deadline fiasco that ultimately cost Tallon his job.

To be sure, Tallon made his fair share of mistakes that didn’t help his case. But Bowman, who has offered some  questionable contracts that have gummed up the cap situation, is facing what is most likely his most telling season since taking over as GM. From a purely numerical standpoint, it doesn’t look promising.

Mar 14, 2017; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Chicago Blackhawks forward <a rel=

The Athletic’s Sean Tierney uses quantitative analysis to measure how Bowman did in his trades this offseason. Though they got younger and cheaper, Tierney uses Goals Above Replacement to illustrate just how much talent and production Chicago lost in the trade. When measuring the current roster versus its previous one, Tierney finds that there’s a steep drop off in production. Though Brandon Saad rises to the top of the GAR list,

The more startling metrics, using a model created by Dom Galamini. reveal that the Hawks playoff probability pre-trade (sans Marian Hossa) was 49%  Following Bowman’s moves, it dips to 37%.

Is this to say the Blackhawks are doomed? Hardly.

But what it does show is just how difficult it is to win in the National Hockey League. Bowman has done a good enough job with the cap, and yet, like every other general manager, has struggled with a few deals that have come back to haunt him. The Brent Seabrook deal immediately comes to mind.

His tightrope act following the 2010 Stanley Cup championship allowed the Hawks to keep key parts, and astutely pick new talent to fill it.  Saad was one of those pieces, selected in the 2011 draft.

So is the window really closing?  Numbers can’t certainly predict everything, especially since the metrics used to predict playoff probability didn’t include some players that may see time. Phenom Alex DeBrincat falls into that category, especially if his goal scoring prowess from juniors carries over to the pros. He may not score buckets of goals, but consistent contribution is what the Hawks need for the future, especially as the core ages.

Last year’s team was tops in the Western Conference, winning 50 games and potting 109 points. It’s hardly time to write their epitaph.

But there certainly are signs that their dominance won’t be what it once was.

Chicago Blackhawks Bring Back Patrick Sharp

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As indicated by reports this morning, the Chicago Blackhawks have indeed signed Patrick Sharp. After a two-year hiatus with the Dallas Stars, the three-time Stanley Cup winner is back home in Chicago to the tune of just $1MM. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the deal is for one year and carries an $800K base salary with $200K in bonuses for games played.

This could be quite the steal for the Blackhawks, given that Sharp scored 78 points in his last fully healthy season in Chicago. While Sharp struggled with injuries and inconsistency last season in Dallas, he posted 55 points in his first season with the team the year before and another 43 in just 68 games in his final season in Chicago. Armed with a top-end shot, Sharp was always the beneficiary of great offensive linemates on the Blackhawks and there is no reason to think he won’t excel again, even if he has lost a step.

Sharp becomes the second player this week to re-join the Blackhawks after the team re-acquired Brandon Saad from the Columbus Blue Jackets in a deal that saw Artemi Panarin shipped out of town. While neither Sharp nor Saad could single-handedly make up for the loss of offense from Panarin’s departure, together the two may be able to get the job done if they can re-ignite the old chemistry they had with the likes of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. 

Morning Notes: Sharp, Bernier, Agostino

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It’s been a wild few weeks for the Chicago Blackhawks, including the departures of several key players like Niklas Hjalmarsson, Artemi Panarin, and Trevor van Riemsdyk, but the Western Conference dynasty appears to be bringing back a fan-favorite when free agency opens today to help deal with those losses. The Chicago Sun Times’ Mark Lazerus reports, as speculated, that Patrick Sharp will return to Chicago for the coming season. While details of the deal – term, salary, incentives – are not yet known, the deal is expected to be made official promptly after free agency opens at noon ET. Sharp, 35, is a three-time Stanley Cup winner with the Blackhawks and an eight-time 20-goal scorer over his impressive career. Sharp was essentially forced out of Chicago in the off-season two years ago, as the ’Hawks could not muster the cap space to re-sign the prominent forward. The Dallas Stars could, but after a strong 55-point campaign in 2015-16, Sharp struggled with injury and inconsistency this past season, recording just 18 points in 48 games. Age and health have clearly softened Sharp’s edge, but if he is going to rejuvenate his career at this age for any team, it will be in a return to Chicago and his former teammates. Sharp will join Brandon Saad as returning Blackhawks this off-season if this deal does come to fruition this afternoon.

  • Adrian Dater of BSN Denver was busy late last night, breaking the news that Jonathan Bernier is expected to sign with his Colorado Avalanche today. The Avs recently lost young backup Calvin Pickard in the expansion draft and were on the lookout for a reliable backup to Semyon Varlamov. While Bernier has been rumored to sign anywhere from the Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins to a return to the Anaheim Ducks, the fit in Colorado makes sense. One could argue that Bernier is coming off the best season of his career in 2016-17 and will have a chance to be more of a “1B” than a definite #2 with the Avalanche. Per usual, there is still no word on the details of the deal that cannot be consummated until later today.
  • Dater also reported that the Boston Bruins are set to make a small, but interesting move today, as they have supposedly come to terms with AHL MVP Kenny Agostino on a short-term contract worth $850K. The high-scoring minor league left wing has seen only limited NHL action, but over the course of an 83-point season with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves last season, he also contributed a goal and two assists in seven games with the St. Louis Blues. The Bruins were known to have some concerns over the potential of Matt Beleskey and Frank Vatrano to play top-six roles on the left side next season, but were also worried about blocking up-and-coming prospects like Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, Anders Bjork, and more. The Agostino signing would add another option at a relatively cheap price and (likely) the flexibility of a two-way contract as well. The details will be revealed a few hours from now.
  • In more concrete news, the KHL’s Barys Astana has signed former Washington Capitals prospect Darren Dietz, according to European hockey insider Aivis Kalnins. Dietz was not tendered a qualifying offer by the Capitals by last Monday’s deadline and became an unrestricted free agent. Without any NHL interest, Dietz will try his hand at Russian pro hockey rather than a minor league deal to remain in North America.

Artemi Panarin Traded To Columbus Blue Jackets For Brandon Saad

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Just moments after the Niklas Hjalmarsson deal, the Chicago Blackhawks have traded Artemi Panarin, Tyler Motte and their 2017 sixth-round pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Brandon Saad, Anton Forsberg and Columbus’ 2018 fifth-round pick.

In spectacular fashion, the Blackhawks have reunited Saad with his former teammates, something that perhaps pushed along the deal in the first place. Saad won two Stanley Cups with the Hawks before being shipped out of town in one of their cap-saving measures, which interestingly is what brings him back just two years later. Though Panarin and Saad both have a cap hit of $6MM, the “bread man” is signed for only two more years and will be demanding a hefty raise in the summer of 2019. The former Rookie of the Year is a legitimate 70+ point winger in the prime of his career, something that is extremely difficult to find on the open market. Brandon Saad

Saad himself can score 30 goals and is a much more well-rounded player, better defensively and physical. Though he clearly doesn’t have the elite offensive talent of Panarin, he can be a legitimate first-line winger and should slot back in next to Jonathan Toews for the next four seasons. The 24-year old is under contract through 2020-21, meaning they won’t have to worry about re-signing him for an extra couple of years.

Interestingly, the Blackhawks have also found a potential backup goaltender after losing Scott Darling earlier this offseason. Forsberg is clearly ready for an NHL role, but was behind Sergei Bobrovsky and Joonas Korpisalo in Columbus. He comes over as a restricted free agent, and will need a new contract before next season. Motte, the prospect going the other way is an undersized forward who played 33 games for the Hawks this year, struggling to contribute much offensively. Though he had an outstanding season as a junior for the University of Michigan, that same offensive flair hasn’t carried over to his professional play just yet.

Really though this trade comes down to Panarin for Saad, and a move for more cost certainty for the Hawks. They get a former fan favorite back, who is both younger and locked up for a longer term, but deal one of the individually gifted scorers in the entire league. It will be a bittersweet pill to swallow, as fans have gotten used to seeing Panarin and Patrick Kane play games with opposing teams and almost score at will, but perhaps Saad will bring back a more dominant Toews on the top line.

For Columbus, they move out some of the physicality and size to introduce pure skill. While it’s not clear where Panarin will play, adding him to a lineup that already includes Cam Atkinson will be too much to handle for most teams on most nights. They only have him locked up for two more seasons, but with a dominant defensive group, Vezina-winning goaltending and scoring depth on all four lines look like a solid contender for the immediate future.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet broke the deal, with Pierre LeBrun of TSN gave details on the other pieces.

Blue Jackets Notes: Team Building Goals, Gavrikov, Ruopp, Soberg

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Refreshingly straightforward Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen was open and honest with Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman recently when asked about his teams short-term and long-term objectives. The Blue Jackets surprised many this past season with their stellar play, reaching 108 points on the year – a franchise record by a significant margin. Yet, Columbus was easily dispatched by the Eastern Conference champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round of the playoffs. Kekalainen understands that his team must get better if they ever want to reach their first Stanley Cup, but he is not worried. Kekalainen told Friedman that they “are not thinking short-term. Our window is not just open now. We are only cracking the window.” Kekalainen clearly believes that his young, talented team can compete for a long time – even with a difficult Expansion Draft situation looming – without having to worry entirely about just the next couple of seasons.

When discussing what exactly he want to do to improve the team, Kekalainen named a number one center and a “sniper in the key moments” as the biggest needs. He expands on the desire for a “sniper” by stating that the team will look internally and externally for players with greater finish around the net. In 2016-17, Cam Atkinson had a breakout year with a career-best 35 goals, courtesy of a 14.6% shooting percentage. Captain Nick Foligno and rookie Josh Anderson also broke the 14% shooting mark, while others like Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad, and Brandon Dubinsky topped the NHL average, generally somewhere around 9%. Yet, other key contributors including every starting defenseman, Boone Jenner, and William Karlsson were not as lucky with their accuracy. Kekalainen hopes to add players who can make up for some of those missed opportunities with a better eye for putting the puck in the back of the net.

One player who has been known as a “sniper” and may also fit the bill as a top center one day is Oliver Bjorkstrand. The 2013 third-round pick was nearly unstoppable as a junior player with the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks, but has cooled down since turning pro in 2015-16 with just pedestrian AHL numbers. He also has largely moved completely to right wing in that time as well. Yet, last season Bjorkstrand played in 26 games with the Blue Jackets, recording 55 shots and scoring six goals for a 10.9% shooting percentage. He also scored four goals in 12 NHL games in his rookie season. Some more ice time, possibly even some back at center, in 2017-18 could be an internal solution for Columbus’ need for finish. However, in speaking with Friedman, Kekalainen made no mention of Bjorkstrand as the answer to either problem. He also left Wennberg out of the mix for an internal number one center, even though the 22-year-old had an outstanding campaign in exactly that role, recording 13 goals and 46 assists. Wennberg is by no means a “sniper”, but if Kekalainen can separate the two biggest needs of his team, Wennberg certainly has the appearance of a potential top-31 center in the NHL down the road.

The two players tabbed by Kekalainen, the former as possible top center option and the latter as a potential elite NHL finisher, were unsurprisingly 2016 third-overall selection Pierre-Luc Dubois and 2015 third-rounder Keegan Kolesar. Dubois nearly made the Blue Jackets out of camp in 2016-17, but was sent back to junior before he could make his NHL debut. After a somewhat disappointing junior season production-wise, aside from a strong QMJHL postseason run, Dubois appears to have outgrown juniors and should be in Columbus next season. He possesses high-end two-way ability and hockey IQ and has unique strength, both with and without the puck, for his age. While it remains to be seen if Dubois can stick at center in the NHL rather than move to left wing, where many scouts projected him even before he was drafted, Dubois is very likely to make an impact for the Jackets next season and surely could be an option at number one center. Meanwhile, Kolesar may not be ready for the big-time next season, but when he does arrive, the 6’2″, 223-lb. right wing will also bring with him a developed two-way game. However, where Kolesar catches your eye is his finish: he can capitalize around the net and he can strike from afar with a great shot. Kolesar could be that “sniper” that Kekalainen is looking for, but not for a few more years.

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Poll: Which Team Will Be Next To Make Stanley Cup Debut?

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With a 6-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final last night, the Nashville Predators punched their ticket to the franchise’s first ever Stanley Cup appearance. In fact, Nashville had never even advanced beyond the conference semifinals until this heroic run and now stand just four wins away from hosting the greatest trophy in sports.

A Stanley Cup berth has certainly been a long time coming for the NHL’s 27th franchise whose inaugural season took place in 1998. GM David Poile, who has been the man in charge through it all, did not qualify for the postseason for the team’s first five seasons of existence, but since 2003 the Predators have only missed the playoffs three times. With other 1990’s expansion or relocation teams having made the Final before, like the San Jose Sharks, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers, and even more having won a Stanley Cup, including the Tampa Bay Lightning, Anaheim Ducks, Colorado Avalanche, and Carolina Hurricanes, many would expect that the Predators may be the last team to accomplish the feat. However, there are four teams who have yet to make it to Stanley Cup Final, the Expansion Class of 2000 – the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets, the current Winnipeg Jets, and the original Winnipeg Jets, now the Arizona Coyotes. Which of these teams will be the next to realize their dreams of playing in June?

The Minnesota Wild certainly seemed to be heading in that direction for much of this season as they had their way with the Western Conference. Although in a tough Central Division with the Cup-bound Predators, Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, and Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota is armed with a depth and talent at every position and showed (in the regular season) that they can fight through a tough schedule. The team was able to turn goaltender Devan Dubnyk into a star, has one of the strongest defensive cores in the NHL, and has a combination up front of strong veterans like Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, and Eric Staal and exciting young players like Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker and Charlie Coyle. However, everything fell apart when it mattered most, as the Wild were easily bounced in the first round by the Blues. Can the Wild bounce back and, with the aid of top prospects such as Joel Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin, make a Stanley Cup appearance in the next few years?

The Columbus Blue Jackets will be racing them for that honor. Almost mirror images of each other in 2016-17, the Blue Jackets also surprised many by dominating the Eastern Conference early in the year. At the time, the New Year’s Eve match-up between Columbus and Minnesota, both on historic winning streaks, was even touted as the game of the year. The Blue Jackets too have a stellar goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky and deep group of talented defenseman, like young game-changers Zach Werenski and Seth Jones. However, where Columbus may edge out Minnesota is in their youth up front. Although similarly successful, the Jackets were able to reach 108 points to the Wild’s 106 with a much younger forward corps. The likes of Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg, Boone Jenner, and Josh Anderson, plus incoming talent like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Oliver Bjorkstrand could keep Columbus in the running for a Cup longer than the Wild.

Speaking of youth, the Arizona Coyotes seem to be building something special in the desert. Question marks abound throughout the roster, such as starting goalie and a long-term partner for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and many don’t expect the Coyotes to be contenders for several more years. However, after the rapid ascent of the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs this season, fueled largely by under-21 talent, Arizona may be relevant sooner rather than later. Their best players are also their top prospects – Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Brendan Perlini, Jakob Chychrun – and that’s just the beginning, as even better young talent is on its way in Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome, not to mention whoever they select with the 7th and 23rd overall picks this year. It seems inevitable that the Coyotes will be good down the road, and, regardless of whether it’s in Arizona or not, have a strong chance to host a Stanley Cup final. However, will that day come before the likes of Minnesota or Columbus can take advantage of their current success?

Finally, there’s the Winnipeg Jets. They weren’t a playoff team this year like Columbus or Minnesota and they aren’t armed with years worth of high draft picks like Arizona either. Yet, the Jets may actually be the dark horse to reach the Stanley Cup first. Winnipeg finished ninth in the Western Conference in 2016-17, tenth in 2015-16, and eighth in 2014-15, consistently hanging around as a fringe team, not truly competing for a title. That seems like it is about to change. The Jets have one of the more dangerous forward groups in the NHL with Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, and captain Blake Wheeler leading the charge. They also have talented defenseman in Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers, and Jacob Trouba. The Jets are a deeper team than many know and this season did not have a single player over the age of 32. Next year, they’ll add ace forwards Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic to the mix, and possibly goaltender Eric Comrie as well, all part of what The Hockey News called the top prospect system in the NHL. Given the wealth of talent on this team already, it seems strange they haven’t performed better. Throw some dynamic young players in and use some of the team’s ample cap space, and the Winnipeg Jets could be a breakout team in 2017-18.

What do you think?

Potential Buyout Options

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NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.

For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:

 

Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars

Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.

Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks

Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.

Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets

Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.

 
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.

Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?

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FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?

Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.

Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.

It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.

Mar 10, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Edmonton Oilers forward <a rel=2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.

Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.

A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.

Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.

New York Hockey Notes: Tortorella, Davidson, Isles, Buchnevich

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The Columbus Blue Jackets, fresh off their 16-game winning streak, are in the unusual position of being considered among the best teams in the NHL. They currently own the league’s best record at 27-6-4 and currently rank among the top teams in several statistical categories. With the Jackets taking an early lead at home against the New York Rangers tonight, it’s perhaps interesting to note how much of an impact two former Blue Shirts have had on the fortunes of Columbus this season, argues Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post.

Former Ranger net minder and television analyst John Davidson took over as President of the Blue Jackets back in 2012 and has overseen the acquisition of much of the current roster. One of his first moves was to bring in the team’s GM, Jarmo Kekalainen, with whom Davidson worked while both were in the Blues organization. Kekalainen and his staff are responsible for drafting Alexander Wennberg and Zach Werenski, among others, and have orchestrated trades for Brandon Saad and Seth Jones.

Perhaps the biggest move Davidson and the Jackets have made was hiring head coach John Tortorella, who spent parts of five seasons behind the bench in New York and who led the Rangers to the playoffs four times and a berth in the 2012 Eastern Conference Final. Tortorella has rebuilt his reputation as one of the league’s top coaches and according to Davidson, Torts has pushed the players and adds “the players are also allowed to not only play the game hard, play the game in the way it should be played, but also have fun doing it. And Torts has done all that stuff.”

It remains to be seen just how far the Jackets will go this season. They certainly look like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender at this point and as the second youngest team in the league, they should remain one of the league’s best for the foreseeable future. Much of the credit for their success is owed to two men who used to be members of one of their Metro division rivals.

Elsewhere in New York hockey:

  • Unlike Columbus, the New York Islanders have underachieved and unless they get things turned around, they’ll be in danger of missing the playoffs. Their struggles this season may also have a negative affect on star center John Tavares’ desire to remain with the Islanders beyond the term of his current contract. Tavares has one more season left on his deal and it would be a crushing blow if he were to leave the team after the 2017-18 campaign. However, while things appear bleak today, the team does have hope for the future as Arthur Staple of Newsday writes. Even though they aren’t quite NHL-ready, Josh Ho-Sang and Michael Dal Colle are getting a thorough education playing for the Bridgeport Sound Tigers in the AHL and will soon be ready to contribute for the big club. The talented youngsters are learning what it takes to be pros from former NHL defenseman and Sound Tigers head coach Brent Thompson and while there is still work to be done their skill is undeniable.
  • Pavel Buchnevich, who was assigned to Hartford on the AHL yesterday, appeared in the Wolf Pack’s game last night and tallied a power play goal in his first game action in nearly eight weeks. More importantly for Buchnevich and the Rangers, Buchnevich reported no pain after the game, according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post. While the Wolf Pack return to the ice tonight but Buchnevich will not be joining them. Brooks reports that he won’t participate in back-to-back games but is expected to be in the lineup again for the third game of the weekend set, barring any complications of course.

 

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