What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?
Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.
Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.
The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.
So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.
The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.
Poll: Early Hart Trophy Favorite?
It may be the slowest stretch of the off-season, but the odds-makers at Bovada are staying busy. As Sports Illustrated’s Michael Blinn writes, the first odds for the NHL’s MVP Award, the Hart Trophy, for the 2018-19 season are out. Very few could have predicted that the New Jersey Devils’ Taylor Hall would have taken home the title this past season at this point last year. Is next year’s winner even on the board? Or will it be one of the heavy favorites?
To no surprise, Edmonton Oilers phenom Connor McDavid has the best odds to win the Hart for the second time in three years after being crowned in 2017. McDavid has 10/3 odds to win the award and those are actually pretty fair odds. Even last season, when McDavid was not even a finalist for the Hart, he nevertheless was the league’s leading scorer with 108 points, six more than the next-best player. It was the second season in a row that McDavid won the scoring title and that trend seems unlikely to change if he remains healthy. However, there are some who will say that McDavid’s Hart chances are tied to the success of the Oilers. The argument this past season was that he could not truly be the most valuable player in the league when his contributions still left Edmonton far from a playoff spot. With a roster that has been largely unimproved this off-season, another regular season disappointment for the Oilers could make it hard for McDavid to get back on top.
Next up is two-time Hart winner Sidney Crosby at 13/5. The face of the Pittsburgh Penguins dynasty has long been considered the best player on the planet. Yet, one would think that Crosby might actually have more than two MVP titles. Crosby has scored between 84 and 120 points in every healthy season of his career, but his impressive supporting cast detracts from the impact of those unbelievable numbers. Especially last season, when Crosby was narrowly outscored by both Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, it would have been close to impossible for him to win the Hart. Malkin (18/1 odds) and Kessel (75/1 odds) are still Penguins and barring injuries to one or both, Crosby would have to take his game to an even higher level to get back into Hart consideration.
Maple Leafs centers John Tavares and Auston Matthews both have 10/1 odds to win the Hart, as the odds-makers clearly expect there to be plenty of offense to go around in Toronto next season. Injuries held Matthews to 63 points last season, outside the top 50 in scoring, while a healthy Tavares only managed to tie for sixteenth with 84 points for the New York Islanders. Both players will greatly need to improve their production to be Hart – and it is certainly possible now that they are playing together – yet an improvement by both could land them in Crosby/Malkin territory where they cancel each other out in the Hart race.
Reigning Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe, and Maurice Richard winner Alex Ovechkin also has 10/1 odds to take home the Hart. Ovechkin has done it three times before, more than any other active player in the league. However, Ovechkin’s 49 goals last year only came with 38 assists, as his 87 points kept him outside the top ten in scoring. At 33 years old this season, the Washington Capitals captain will have to fight both the aging process and a potential Cup hangover to improve his production if he wants a fourth Hart. Ovechkin’s 10/1 odds seem like a stretch.
At 15/1 are both the 2018 winner Hall and finalist Nathan MacKinnon, as well as Nikita Kucherov and Mark Scheifele. This is where the value lies in these early odds. The former duo greatly benefited from both excellent seasons – 97 points for MacKinnon and 93 points for Hall – but also being far and away the best players on the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche respectively. Both should again lead the way for their clubs and if they match their previous output and again sneak into the postseason, it would be no surprise to see them both back in consideration next year. As for Kucherov, he was the favorite to win the Hart for a long stretch last season as he led the league in scoring. Although his production tailed off as the season closed out, the dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning winger still managed to finish third with 100 points. Tampa will be top contenders again and promise to light up the score board with Kucherov leading the way. Perhaps this time he can seal the deal on the Hart. Scheifele is a dark horse candidate who could be the breakout star of the coming season like Hall and MacKinnon last year. The Winnipeg Jets franchise center played in only 60 games last year, but scored 60 points and continues to show flashes of brilliance. He could be a savvy pick to take home the hardware.
Among the rest of the field are some very interesting options. Los Angeles Kings star Anze Kopitar, a Hart finalist last season, has 18/1 odds and new weapon to play with in Ilya Kovalchuk (50/1 odds). Philadelphia Flyers captain Claude Giroux has 25/1 odds despite finishing second only to McDavid at the top of the scoring charts last season with 102 points. Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand, also 25/1 odds, was arguably the most dangerous scorer in the league last season when on the ice, finishing 13th overall in scoring with 85 points in just 68 games – the only player in the top 50 to play in less than 70 games. Bargain odds belong to Artemi Panarin at 50/1. The Columbus Blue Jackets dynamo gets better each year since coming over to the NHL and could toy with 100 points in his second year with the team. That would make for an interesting off-season, as Panarin is slated for free agency next summer.
What do you think? Does Bovada have the right names at the top? Or will the Hart winner be another unpredictable upset like Hall?
Poll: Who Are The Best Centers In The NHL?
The NHL Network lit up the hockey world recently when they revealed their list of the Top 20 Centers in the league, ranking Connor McDavid as the best in the league ahead of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The number four slot was occupied by Auston Matthews, which ruffled some feathers, while the reigning Stanley Cup champions Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom were down at 13 and 14 respectively.
The Penguins (Croby, Malkin), Maple Leafs (Matthews, John Tavares), Capitals (Kuznetsov, Backstrom) and Oilers (McDavid, Draisaitl) all had two names on the list, while other potential options like Eric Staal, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Toews, Brayden Schenn, Brayden Point, Ryan O’Reilly, Sean Monahan and Dylan Larkin were all absent.
Since the NHL Network’s fan vote was so different—Jay Beagle ranked 20th on the list—we thought we’d do our own tally here at PHR. In the poll below we’ve listed many options and are asking you to vote for your top group by selecting 10 names. Does Matthews stay in the top five? Can defensive wizards like Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron climb up the rankings? Does the PHR community believe in William Karlsson? Cast your vote for the top 10 centers in the league and make sure to leave a comment explaining your choices.
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*Though Claude Giroux has played center for much of his career, his absence from the NHL Network list means he was likely left off the ballot. We’ve similarly left him out of the poll, along with other part-time centers like Joe Pavelski, Blake Wheeler and Logan Couture. If you feel as though any of them should be included in this group, make sure to leave a comment down below.
Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders
Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal – Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.
- Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
- While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.
The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III
Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:
Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining
Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera‘s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining
The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.
San Jose Sharks: None
Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.
St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining
The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining
The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining
The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.
Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining
It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.
Vegas Golden Knights: None
The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.
Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining
No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.
Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining
The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.
Early Notes: Prospects, Moore, Matthews
The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler has released his Top-50 NHL Prospects ranking (subscription required), listing the best drafted players under the age of 23. Wheeler’s list includes a short paragraph on every single one of the ranked players, and nearly 70 honorable mention players. There are some rankings that may surprise fans, but Wheeler explains that the biggest factor in his rankings is high-end skill, not necessarily proximity to the NHL or likelihood of getting there.
Number one on his list should come as no surprise, given that Rasmus Dahlin has been termed a “generational talent” by people all around the NHL over the past few months. While Wheeler isn’t comfortable handing out that exact term, he does rave about the Buffalo Sabres prospect and his potential to become the “best defenseman in the world.” That should bring a wave of smiles to Sabres fans, who have another prospect near the very top of the list as well.
- Dominic Moore is hoping to play again in 2018-19, but he doesn’t think it will be with the Toronto Maple Leafs. After suiting up for 50 games with Toronto last season, Moore was essentially replaced by Tomas Plekanec at the trade deadline and is still waiting for an opportunity around the league. He told TSN 1050 radio that he’s just being patient, given that he’s had long offseason waits before. Moore has played nearly 900 regular season games in his NHL career, and had 12 points last season for the Maple Leafs.
- Speaking of the Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews has begun talks with the team on a contract extension according to several reports including Luke Fox of Sportsnet. Matthews is heading into the final season of his entry-level contract and became eligible to sign an extension on July 1st. The star center is likely going to command a huge contract similar to the ones Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel have signed in past seasons, though the new Maple Leafs front office will have work to do making sure everything can fit into their salary cap. The team already handed out an $11MM cap hit to John Tavares and are still in negotiations with restricted free agent William Nylander on his next deal.
Tavares Notes: Toronto, San Jose, Boston
While reports suggest that John Tavares and his representation are speaking to five teams in Los Angeles, there is some confusion of which teams Tavares’ camp is speaking to. It was reported that the Toronto Maple Leafs, San Jose Sharks and the Dallas Stars are three teams that are definitely meeting with him, while other teams such as Vegas and Tampa Bay have been suggested as possibilities.
The Maple Leafs have been interested in signing Tavares for a long time, years in fact. However, with the state of their salary cap in the coming years with contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander on the books, there are a lot of questions whether the Maple Leafs are really true candidates to bring Tavares on board, especially after the team splurged a season ago when they pried Patrick Marleau away from San Jose.
The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) writes that trying to add a contract that at the moment is linked at $11MM per year for Tavares (possibly $12MM) might be challenging, but not totally impossible. Unlike two years ago, when they tried to sign Steven Stamkos when they were a struggling franchise, things are much different. For one, Tavares gets to come home, he can immediate play for a top team which has a legitimate chance to win a Stanley Cup, and lots of cap space in the first year of a contract, which is where the discussion ends.
Mirtle suggests one rumor that has been going around for week is to offer Tavares a one-year max deal, which would be worth $15.9MM. Then the team could attempt to lock him up to an eight-year deal after that. However, that could also be construed as cap circumvention as well as dangerous if Tavares gets injured in that first year. Another offer Toronto could add to the package is the captaincy, but that would also be an issue considering that Matthews has been in line for that role.
- David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period confirms that the San Jose Sharks were the second team to speak with Tavares and his representatives. He writes that the Sharks are all-in on Tavares and the entire organization is on board to bring Tavares in. With more than $18MM in cap space, the Sharks have the money even after locking up winger Evander Kane to a seven-year, $49MM extension last month. With their defense and goaltending, alongside Tavares, Kane, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski as well as a bunch of talented younger players that are ready to break out, the Sharks would look like a perennial Stanley Cup contender.
- Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that while there is no word yet, the scribe gets the sense that the Boston Bruins haven’t been told yet whether they are one of the five teams that Tavares will meet with, but Boston definitely wants a meeting with the center. Boston has almost $12MM of cap space available and a team that is full of both veterans and young stars in which the addition of Tavares could take them to that Stanley Cup level as well.
Eastern Notes: Kovalchuk, Marner, Smith, Rasmussen
Could the Boston Bruins be the front-runners for Russian free agent and former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk? Evidently, the Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson thinks so.
As reported by NBC Sports, Anderson appeared on Toucher & Rich on 98.5 and said he believes the Bruins are currently the leading candidates to get the 35-year-old winger due to the Bruins cap space. While the Bruins are listed by CapFriendly as having just $6.5MM in available cap space, the team has few free agents of their own to deal with and a loaded roster, including multiple talented veterans such as Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron and a core of youth of which many had solid rookie years last season.
Kovalchuk, who tallied 31 goals for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL has been touring NHL cities, looking for a new home. While his preference has been to stay on the East Coast, especially either New York or Florida, he’s broadened his search this year including a trip to Los Angeles and San Jose as he’s made it clear that he wants to win a Stanley Cup as soon as possible.
- Kevin McGran of The Star interviewed Mitch Marner about multiple topics, but the 21-year-old star said that there has been no discussion yet with management about a potential contract extension. The fourth-overall pick from the 2015 draft will be eligible for a contract extension on July 1 along with teammate Auston Matthews, but there is no word on whether Marner will sign an extension this year or will have to wait until next year. “Nothing has been said yet, but nothing you can do,” said Marner. “If nothing happens, you still have a year to play under your rookie contract. Just go out there and try to prove you can make the team better.”
- While the New York Rangers are looking for defense, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that veteran defenseman Brendan Smith has stayed in New York following the season and has been working with fitness trainer with Ben Prentiss to get into better shape. Smith, who was placed on waivers on Feb. 9, after signing a four-year, $17.4MM contract in the offseason, came into camp out of shape and struggled on the Rangers’ blueline all season long. The scribe writes that the Rangers not only expect him to compete for a job at training camp, but they expect him to return to the status of the player they handed that contract to.
- Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press writes she believes it looks promising that 2017 first-round pick Michael Rasmussen makes the Detroit Red Wings team out of training camp this year. The ninth-overall pick last year put up 31 goals and 58 points for the Tri-City Americans of the WHL and even got some time at the wing position during the season because Detroit would likely like for him to start at the wing if he makes the team next season. What’s more impressive is that he scored 16 goals and 33 points in just 14 playoff games, suggesting he might be ready for Detroit. If he doesn’t make the team, he will have to return for one more year to Tri-City.
Auston Matthews And Mitch Marner May Prefer To Sign New Deals Next Summer
New Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas has already reached out to the agents for center Auston Matthews and winger Mitch Marner, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports (video link). He also notes that Toronto’s preference would be to get deals done with both players at the same time but McKenzie believes that the youngsters may prefer to hold off on signing an extension this offseason in favor of waiting until next summer when they are eligible for restricted free agency.
Both players are coming off of strong sophomore campaigns and if they play at that level or better in 2018-19, it stands to reason that their cases for a bigger payday will only be strengthened. There’s little reason to believe that one or both players will regress so betting on themselves certainly makes some sense. Of course, there is some risk here. A significant injury to either player would certainly negatively impact negotiations.
It’s also worth noting that the barometer for big contracts is shifting more towards the percentage of the salary cap over the actual AAV. The Upper Limit has only gone up since being instituted and will probably do so again next summer so if Marner and Matthews are targeting a specific percentage of the cap on their next deals, it should yield a higher amount by waiting.
McKenzie also wondered if Matthews, in particular, may prefer to not sign a max-term deal which is something that notable number one picks including Steven Stamkos and John Tavares have done in the past. Doing so would result in a lower cap hit on his next deal since fewer UFA-eligible years would be bought out but it would also give him the potential to hit the open market in the prime of his career. It’s safe to say that he’ll be keeping a close eye on Tavares in the next few weeks.
We haven’t seen too many prominent youngsters go this route lately as early extensions are becoming more and more prominent. Last summer, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel wasted little time signing a year earlier than they needed to and many expected that Toronto’s top duo would do the same this time around but that may be in question now. Even though those two may not sign right away, the other member of Toronto’s ‘big three’ up front (winger William Nylander) will need to get something done this offseason as he is eligible for restricted free agency next month.
Eastern Notes: Matthews, Werenski, Skinner
After Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews changed agencies last week, the Maple Leafs are suddenly wondering what that means for them? After a turbulent offseason so far with their star player, which includes a poor playoff showing, two meetings with head coach Mike Babcock and an impending extension either this summer of next, there are suddenly more questions than ever, according to Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons.
Matthews switched from CAA to Orr Hockey Group, leaving behind super-agent Pat Brisson, who the Toronto franchise has had a great relationship with. While most franchises wouldn’t bat an eye when a player changes agencies, Matthews situation is different. Among those questions is whether the 20-year-old plans to stay loyal to the franchise. There have been plenty of questions raised about his rocky relationship with Babcock, which forced the coach to make two trips to Arizona to see Matthews this offseason. There are still questions about his future role as captain of the team and of course, how much money will his extension eventually get him? Will he demand the same money as Connor McDavid‘s eight year, $100MM deal?
- Brian Hedger of NHL.com interviewed Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen about the shoulder injury and subsequent surgery that defenseman Zach Werenski went through this season. Evidently, Werenski suffered the shoulder injury on Oct. 30 and played through the pain all season. The 20-year-old blueliner played with a brace that seriously affected his movement all season and affected his season significantly. “When your arm moves, like, this much, it’s pretty hard, battling for loose pucks in the corner,” Kekalainen said. “It affects everything, and he didn’t ever complain or use it as an excuse. He just kept playing through it and playing through it, and now he’ll be healthy for next year.” Despite the injury, Werenski still had a career high 16 goals, although his total points dropped by 10 from his rookie campaign. After undergoing surgery in early May, Werenski is expected to be ready for the regular season, but could miss all or part of training camp.
- While there has been quite a bit of speculation surrounding Carolina Hurricanes winger Jeff Skinner this offseason already, don’t expect a trade too quickly, according to The News & Observer’s Chip Alexander. General manager Don Waddell said neither Skinner, nor his agent Don Meehan, has been asked to waive Skinner’s no-movement clause, nor have they been asked to tell them what team he would be willing to accept a trade to. Skinner, who is entering his final year of his six-year, $34.4MM deal he signed back in 2012 with a no-movement clause that kicked in last season, has tallied 204 goals for Carolina in eight seasons, but hasn’t taken them to the playoffs yet.