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East Notes: Matthews, Jaskin, Callahan

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While Maple Leafs team President Brendan Shanahan inferred yesterday that their young stars may need to take a little less money to keep the team together, Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic suggested on the latest TSN Insider Trading (video link) that Toronto may have to make an exception when it comes to center Auston Matthews.  He suggests that the salary range for the 21-year-old will likely fall between $12MM and $12.5MM on his next contract and while the high end of that range equals Connor McDavid’s AAV in Edmonton, the continued increase of the Upper Limit means that Matthews could equal (or even beat) McDavid’s cap hit while actually taking a lower percentage of the salary cap.

More from the East:

  • New Capitals winger Dmitrij Jaskin had been looking to get out of St. Louis for a while. Blues GM Doug Armstrong acknowledged to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Jaskin requested a trade following last season but that there were no takers at the draft and in the early stages of training camp.  That led to him being waived where Washington picked him up and with Tom Wilson out for the first quarter of the season, Jaskin should have a chance to make a mark with his new organization.  He has, however, been a healthy scratch in their first two games so far.
  • Tampa Bay winger Ryan Callahan has been cleared for contact, notes Bryan Burns of the Lightning’s team site (Twitter link). However, the veteran indicated that this does not mean that his timeline to return has been changed.  Callahan underwent shoulder surgery at the end of May that was expected to keep him out five-to-six months.  We’re still several weeks away from the earliest possible return based on that timeline so it appears they’re going to ere on the side of caution before putting him back in the lineup.  Considering he has missed 79 games due to injury over the past two years, that’s probably a good idea.

Latest On William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs

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While the Toronto Maple Leafs get their season started against the Montreal Canadiens tonight, there is one player conspicuously missing from the lineup. That’s William Nylander, who is still without a contract and now missing regular season games as he holds out for a lucrative long-term deal. The Maple Leafs are moving forward without Nylander on the wing of Auston Matthews, but certainly don’t want to wait very long for one of their young stars to re-enter the lineup.

Still, the Maple Leafs know they can’t give in to demands and pay Nylander an exceptional amount of money. Toronto will soon be faced with a very real cap crunch as Matthews and fellow star forward Mitch Marner finish their own entry-level contracts this season, and with John Tavares already locked up for $11MM per season there isn’t a ton of money to go around. It’s Tavares that the team hopes its young forwards take a lesson from according to President and Alternate Governor Brendan Shanahan, who told reporters today including Kristen Shilton of TSN that the club expects their players to want to win hockey games more than earn the absolute most money possible. That’s what Tavares did this summer according to Shanahan, and also what he believes his Stanley Cup-winning Detroit Red Wings teams did when he was still on the ice.

Tavares did indeed leave money on the table to come to Toronto, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports in his excellent recent piece detailing the offseason signing. Friedman writes that the San Jose Sharks were rumored to be willing to offer $13.5MM per season, while the New York Islanders basically had a blank check waiting for Tavares, one that would have been filled out in “McDavid territory.”

While that may have been Shanahan just sharing some honest feelings with the media as he approached the season opener, it also seems as though it is a bit of a negotiation tactic with his unsigned star. The Maple Leafs are forging on ahead without Nylander at the moment, and aren’t willing to put themselves in a tough spot financially by catering to whatever the player is asking for. It’s a tough stance for Toronto fans to appreciate, but it might end up saving them in the end if they plan on keeping their young core together long-term.

Toronto’s Dubas Isn’t Budging On Contract Standoff With William Nylander

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With still a number of restricted free agents around the league opting not to attend training camp, many people find themselves looking at the most prominent of them in Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander, who still hasn’t come to an agreement with Toronto and rumor have the two sides being far apart. The 22-year-old winger, who was the eighth-overall selection back in 2014, has put up two solid 20-goal, 60-point campaigns and could be ready for a breakout season.

Regardless, negotiations seem to be at a standstill. Maple Leafs’ general manager Kyle Dubas did a Q&A with students from his alma mater, Brock University this morning and had an interesting response when asked when the team was going to sign Nylander.

“As soon as possible,” said Dubas. “If we want to sustain success here we can’t be setting any marketplace records.”

According to Kevin McGran of the Star, Dubas made it clear that the team wasn’t budging on its offer to Nylander, who is rumored to be seeking $8MM per season, while the Maple Leafs are offering around $6.5MM. Dubas also said he isn’t worried if Nylander misses some of training camp. Due to all its salary cap issues over the next several years, Dubas has to make sure not to overpay any one player, considering he still has to sign Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to extensions as well.

While there is no confirmation of the $8MM salary demand from Nylander, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, in his most recent 31 Thoughts column, writes that he believes that Nylander is asking for Leon Draisaitl money at $8.5MM per season and is likely accurate for several reasons. He writes that agents are always high, but they are using the Draisaitl comparison since Draisaitl posted 129 points in his first two seasons, while Nylander has posted 122. Throw in the fact that Connor McDavid new contract last season pushed Draisaitl’s pricetag up, the same is likely to happen as Nylander will want to be near the salaries that Matthews and Marner will eventually get (not to mention the money that Tavares got this offseason).

Dubas and the Maple Leafs are hoping that Nylander will take a little less money being on a deep, dominant playoff team, something that other players have already done such as Tavares, Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly already have.

Early Notes: Lehner, Matthews, Nylander

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Last season went down as the worst statistical season Robin Lehner had during his time as a Buffalo Sabres goaltender, registering just a .908 save percentage while putting together a 14-26-9 record. His struggles weren’t just localized in the crease though, as the 27-year old explained in an incredibly open and honest piece for The Athletic today. Lehner revealed struggles with mental health and alcoholism that he has dealt with for some time, and only just started getting help for.

Though his departure from the Sabres at the end of the year may have been surprising given the team invested a first-round pick in him a few years earlier when they acquired him from the Ottawa Senators, Lehner explains it was anything but contentious. Sabres GM Jason Botterill has apparently stayed in touch with Lehner all offseason to make sure things were trending in the right direction for him, and the New York Islanders have embraced him as part of their squad for this season.

  • Auston Matthews doesn’t have a long-term extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs yet, but that doesn’t mean he’s not committed to being with the team for a long time. Newcomer John Tavares confirmed as much in an interview alongside Matthews, telling Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman that the young forward’s commitment was part of the selling process on Toronto. The two star centers seem comfortable with each other already and easily deflected any questions about the Maple Leafs captaincy going forward.
  • Matthews’ teammate William Nylander on the other hand is still not under contract and won’t be at the start of training camp as he continues his negotiations. Head coach Mike Babcock and GM Kyle Dubas both downplayed the situation by indicating that there are many players who go through this process around the league, but wouldn’t give an update as to when the Maple Leafs can expect Nylander on the ice. The young forward is looking for a long-term contract to secure his future in Toronto but there have been reports of a substantial gap between the two sides.

Maple Leafs Will Not Name A Captain This Off-Season

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The Toronto Maple Leafs did not have a captain last season and judging by the comments of new GM Kyle Dubas, they may not have one this season either. In an interview with TSN’s Bob McKenzie, Dubas stated for a fact that the team would not name a captain prior to the beginning of the season and would again go without one until Dubas, Brendan Shanahan, and the coaching staff can better evaluate their options.

I want to get into a day-to-day with these people and see who is best suited to handle [the captaincy]… if we do determine that we need somebody to handle that. If we feel we have a void in leadership because we don’t have a formal captain, then that is something that I think we can address… We need to evaluate it as the season evolves and as we go through the ups and downs of a season and see how the players each individually handle the daily process of a season.”

Dubas seems hesitant to make any sort of decision until he has a complete read of the locker room and until a time that he feels naming a captain is necessary. He calls the title for a historic club like the Maple Leafs “an honor” and wants to make sure that the correct person is named. Dubas feels that being patient with naming a captain will be the right move and eliminates the risk of any future drama surrounding the team’s leadership.

Dubas specifically mentions Patrick Marleau, Ron Hainsey, and free agency prize John Tavares as top candidates if and when a decision is made. The latter was the captain of the New York Islanders before signing in Toronto and some speculated that the commitment made by the team to Tavares could indicate that he would be in line for the same role. Meanwhile, Dubas singled out Marleau as a player who stepped up as a locker room leader for the team last year. While the team lost regular alternates in Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov this off-season, Marleau, Hainsey, and Nazem Kadri also wore the “A” occasionally last season. As for the young core of the team, Dubas says that he hopes William Nylander, Morgan Rielly – a frequent alternate the past few years, Jake Gardiner, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner continue to grow in their leadership abilities, but stopped short of calling any of them a prime candidate at this point. With Nylander still unsigned and both Gardiner and Hainsey on expiring contracts, it would seem that either Marleau or Tavares would be the favorite for the role, with Rielly, Matthews, and Marner as possibilities. However, Dubas will not rush the decision and the Leafs may even go another whole season without a formal captain.

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner Unlikely To Sign Extensions Before Season

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While all eyes around the Toronto Maple Leafs right now are on William Nylander and his ongoing contract negotiations, there is also now the possibility of long-term extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Both star forwards have been eligible for an extension since July 1st, but haven’t been in the spotlight much after the team signed John Tavares in free agency and still has not reached an agreement with Nylander for the upcoming season. Now, while sitting down with Bob McKenzie of TSN, Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas admitted that those extensions may not get done before the season.

I wouldn’t say it’s all too likely. We’ve had good discussions with all of them, with both Mitch and Auston and their people. These are the types of things that because there’s no real immediacy to it—they both know they have another year on their contract, everyone’s excited for the season—it’s been a very patient process on all parts. That’s more from the team that it is from the players. We believe that if a player is going to commit that long to a team on a long-term agreement, that we want them to be fully comfortable and aware of what they’re getting into. 

Dubas went on to explain how his team would always be willing to negotiate in-season, but understands if the player doesn’t want that distraction as they’re trying to perform to the best of their abilities. That likely means that the two sides would have to come together next offseason and hammer something out, a tact that could end up costing the Maple Leafs even more.

There is little reason to believe that Matthews or Marner will take steps backwards this season given their individual talent and the expected improvement to the team. If they head into negotiations with new career highs, or even just a third season at the level they’ve been at their demands may increase. That said, both players would likely already be looking at huge contract extensions in any negotiations this summer, with players like Jack Eichel and Leon Draisaitl as potential comparables.

Dubas again seemed confident that all three of the Maple Leafs’ young stars will be with the club long-term, even going so far as to suggest the team try to keep them for their entire careers. While many have wondered how they’ll fit everyone in under the salary cap now that John Tavares is in town making $11MM per season, the young GM obviously has a plan in place. Nylander is the next step on that plan, and needs a contract in the next week or will be in danger of missing the start of training camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Bergeron, Vilardi, Rielly

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Patrice Bergeron was back on the ice today for the Boston Bruins as they prepare for training camp, but he won’t be going to China with the team for their upcoming preseason games. The Bruins are scheduled to open the preseason on September 15th in China against the Calgary Flames, but instead of travelling with the team Bergeron will be continuing his rehab after offseason surgery.

Bergeron is aiming to be ready for the start of the regular season, but as Joe McDonald of The Athletic writes he may have a different winger beside him to open the year. Danton Heinen has apparently been preparing to play either wing this offseason, and could get a look on the top unit beside Bergeron and Brad Marchand if the Bruins decide to move David Pastrnak onto a different line. Heinen may have been overlooked in an incredible rookie class last year, but still recorded 47 points in his first full-season which led all forwards outside of the top line.

  • Los Angeles Kings fans may have to wait even longer to see top prospect Gabe Vilardi on the ice as his back injury could keep him out of rookie camp next week. That’s according to Curtis Zupke of the Los Angeles Times, who reports that the 19-year old forward experienced a “flare-up” of the injury this summer. Vilardi missed a good chunk of his junior season last year with this chronic injury, and the Kings want to be as careful as possible. The 11th-overall selection in 2017, Vilardi has the talent to become a dominant offensive player in the NHL if he can stay healthy enough to continue his development. He is a “day-to-day” situation at this point, just two weeks until training camp begins.
  • Kristen Shilton of TSN sat down with Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly recently, and asked the alternate captain about the recent news that Auston Matthews would accept the captaincy if offered it by the coaching staff. Rielly spoke incredibly highly of Matthews’ maturity and drive, and admitted that he’d already a leader on the team. The Maple Leafs have been without a captain since trading away Dion Phaneuf in the middle of the 2015-16 season, and lost two alternates in Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov to free agency this summer.

Snapshots: Corsi, Ramo, Matthews

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have hired a pair of new faces for the coaching staff, bringing in Jim Corsi as goaltending development coach and Carey Krug as an assistant for the Cleveland Monsters. Corsi of course is the coach that the statistic is named after, but also has a long history of developing NHL goaltenders including working with Dominik Hasek and Ryan Miller after taking over from legendary coach Mitch Korn in Buffalo.

Krug, another familiar name in the hockey world, is the uncle of Boston Bruins defenseman Torey Krug and has been a skills development coach working with various players for more than a decade. He’ll join Columbus’ AHL affiliate and work with head coach John Madden for the upcoming season.

  • Karri Ramo will miss the next six months thanks to a knee injury, keeping him out of a good portion of the KHL season. After posting outstanding numbers with Jokerit last season, Ramo was set to start for Avangard Omsk this season. Instead, that job will likely go to hulking goaltender Igor Bobkov, who also came over to Omsk this offseason. Bobkov was selected back in 2009 by the Anaheim Ducks in the third round, but never did crack the NHL. Now 32, it seems unlikely that Ramo will ever return to the NHL during his playing career.
  • Auston Matthews has been the center of several rumors this offseason regarding his perceived attitude towards Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock and the arrival of John Tavares in town. He sat down with Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription required) to put some of that speculation to rest, and admitted that he is ecstatic about the team adding a star of Tavares’ stature. Matthews also admitted that if the Maple Leafs brass asked him if he was ready to be the next captain of the team already, he would tell them yes—an admission that is only going to start more speculation about the 20-year old superstar.

What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?

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Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.

Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.

The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.

So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.

The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.

 

Poll: Early Hart Trophy Favorite?

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It may be the slowest stretch of the off-season, but the odds-makers at Bovada are staying busy. As Sports Illustrated’s Michael Blinn writes, the first odds for the NHL’s MVP Award, the Hart Trophy, for the 2018-19 season are out. Very few could have predicted that the New Jersey Devils’ Taylor Hall would have taken home the title this past season at this point last year. Is next year’s winner even on the board? Or will it be one of the heavy favorites?

To no surprise, Edmonton Oilers phenom Connor McDavid has the best odds to win the Hart for the second time in three years after being crowned in 2017. McDavid has 10/3 odds to win the award and those are actually pretty fair odds. Even last season, when McDavid was not even a finalist for the Hart, he nevertheless was the league’s leading scorer with 108 points, six more than the next-best player. It was the second season in a row that McDavid won the scoring title and that trend seems unlikely to change if he remains healthy. However, there are some who will say that McDavid’s Hart chances are tied to the success of the Oilers. The argument this past season was that he could not truly be the most valuable player in the league when his contributions still left Edmonton far from a playoff spot. With a roster that has been largely unimproved this off-season, another regular season disappointment for the Oilers could make it hard for McDavid to get back on top.

Next up is two-time Hart winner Sidney Crosby at 13/5. The face of the Pittsburgh Penguins dynasty has long been considered the best player on the planet. Yet, one would think that Crosby might actually have more than two MVP titles. Crosby has scored between 84 and 120 points in every healthy season of his career, but his impressive supporting cast detracts from the impact of those unbelievable numbers. Especially last season, when Crosby was narrowly outscored by both Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, it would have been close to impossible for him to win the Hart. Malkin (18/1 odds) and Kessel (75/1 odds) are still Penguins and barring injuries to one or both, Crosby would have to take his game to an even higher level to get back into Hart consideration.

Maple Leafs centers John Tavares and Auston Matthews both have 10/1 odds to win the Hart, as the odds-makers clearly expect there to be plenty of offense to go around in Toronto next season. Injuries held Matthews to 63 points last season, outside the top 50 in scoring, while a healthy Tavares only managed to tie for sixteenth with 84 points for the New York Islanders. Both players will greatly need to improve their production to be Hart – and it is certainly possible now that they are playing together – yet an improvement by both could land them in Crosby/Malkin territory where they cancel each other out in the Hart race.

Reigning Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe, and Maurice Richard winner Alex Ovechkin also has 10/1 odds to take home the Hart. Ovechkin has done it three times before, more than any other active player in the league. However, Ovechkin’s 49 goals last year only came with 38 assists, as his 87 points kept him outside the top ten in scoring. At 33 years old this season, the Washington Capitals captain will have to fight both the aging process and a potential Cup hangover to improve his production if he wants a fourth Hart. Ovechkin’s 10/1 odds seem like a stretch.

At 15/1 are both the 2018 winner Hall and finalist Nathan MacKinnon, as well as Nikita Kucherov and Mark Scheifele. This is where the value lies in these early odds. The former duo greatly benefited from both excellent seasons – 97 points for MacKinnon and 93 points for Hall – but also being far and away the best players on the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche respectively. Both should again lead the way for their clubs and if they match their previous output and again sneak into the postseason, it would be no surprise to see them both back in consideration next year. As for Kucherov, he was the favorite to win the Hart for a long stretch last season as he led the league in scoring. Although his production tailed off as the season closed out, the dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning winger still managed to finish third with 100 points. Tampa will be top contenders again and promise to light up the score board with Kucherov leading the way. Perhaps this time he can seal the deal on the Hart. Scheifele is a dark horse candidate who could be the breakout star of the coming season like Hall and MacKinnon last year. The Winnipeg Jets franchise center played in only 60 games last year, but scored 60 points and continues to show flashes of brilliance. He could be a savvy pick to take home the hardware.

Among the rest of the field are some very interesting options. Los Angeles Kings star Anze Kopitar, a Hart finalist last season, has 18/1 odds and new weapon to play with in Ilya Kovalchuk (50/1 odds). Philadelphia Flyers captain Claude Giroux has 25/1 odds despite finishing second only to McDavid at the top of the scoring charts last season with 102 points. Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand, also 25/1 odds, was arguably the most dangerous scorer in the league last season when on the ice, finishing 13th overall in scoring with 85 points in just 68 games – the only player in the top 50 to play in less than 70 games. Bargain odds belong to Artemi Panarin at 50/1. The Columbus Blue Jackets dynamo gets better each year since coming over to the NHL and could toy with 100 points in his second year with the team. That would make for an interesting off-season, as Panarin is slated for free agency next summer.

What do you think? Does Bovada have the right names at the top? Or will the Hart winner be another unpredictable upset like Hall?

Who Is The Early Favorite To Win The 2019 Hart Trophy?
Connor McDavid 32.35% (273 votes)
Sidney Crosby 12.09% (102 votes)
The Field - comment below 11.37% (96 votes)
Nathan MacKinnon 11.14% (94 votes)
Nikita Kucherov 7.58% (64 votes)
John Tavares 6.87% (58 votes)
Taylor Hall 5.09% (43 votes)
Mark Scheifele 5.09% (43 votes)
Auston Matthews 4.74% (40 votes)
Alex Ovechkin 3.67% (31 votes)
Total Votes: 844

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