Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Hartnell, Matthews
The 2018 NHL Entry Draft is less than three weeks away, and teams and pundits around the league are finalizing their rankings. Today, TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button released his final list of the top-100 prospects eligible for the draft, and Rasmus Dahlin remains on top. That’s not unexpected, neither is Andrei Svechnikov or Filip Zadina at the number two and three spots respectively.
Where Button’s list may vary from others is where he lists his top two center prospects, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton. The two young pivots are fifth and seventh respectively, ahead of top defensive prospects like Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard and Adam Boqvist. Button is also high on towering power forward Serron Noel (#13) and shifty winger Akil Thomas (#17). Joe Veleno, once expected to be selected at the very top of the first round, is way down at #28.
- Scott Hartnell has begun training for the 2018-19 season, but as Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes in his recent profile on the Nashville Predators free agent, if the 36-year old forward doesn’t find a contract he’s okay with that too. After registering 24 points in 62 games this season there is still reason to believe that Hartnell can be an effective bottom-six player, but it was just a year ago that he was bought out by the Blue Jackets and had to settle for a $1MM contract. If it is the end of his career, he’ll go out with 707 points in 1,249 games—a great career to say the least.
- Toronto Maple Leafs fans were up in arms last night questioning what it could mean when James Mirtle of The Athletic reported that Auston Matthews had changed agencies. Matthews has followed his agent from CAA to the Orr Hockey Group, with many pointing to the fact that they also represent Connor McDavid and negotiated his league-leading eight-year $100MM extension. Matthews can sign an extension on July 1st, and could be the league’s next highly-paid young star. While it may not match the $12.5MM/year that McDavid will start earning next season, Jack Eichel‘s eight-year $80MM deal is certainly within reach.
Toronto Maple Leafs Lead Bonus Overages List
It looks like the Toronto Maple Leafs are at the top of at least one list. CapFriendly released a list of teams with Bonus Overages for this year, which result from players on their entry-level contracts hitting their standard bonuses. Nine teams’ performance bonuses went over the salary cap with the Maple Leafs leading with $2.55MM, which will now count against their 2018-19 cap. The bonus overages range from Toronto’s $2.55MM to the Minnesota Wild’s $25K.
The Maple Leafs’ bonuses came from just three players from the entry-level contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander which totaled the $2.55MM. Since the team had no remaining cap room in 2017-18, it pushes over to the following year. Most of the nine teams were at the cap threshold, while others like the Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues and the Tampa Bay Lightning had some cap room to take a part of the bonus hits.
Two teams bonuses could still go up as Boston’s Jake Debrusk and Tampa Bay’s Mikhail Sergachev could each receive bonus if they are named to the All-Rookie Team.
Here is the nine-team list:
Toronto Maple Leafs: $2,550,000
Chicago Blackhawks: $1,232,500
Vancouver Canucks: $852,847
Boston Bruins: $774,000
Detroit Red Wings: $755,000
St. Louis Blues: $150,988
Tampa Bay Lightning: $142,947
Washington Capitals: $82,500
Minnesota Wild: $25,000
Toronto’s Babcock Travels To Arizona To Talk With Auston Matthews
It looks like there was some truth between the reported rift between the Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock and star Auston Matthews afterall. Elliotte Friedman of Hockey Night in Canada reported Saturday evening that Babcock travelled to Arizona (Matthews home) for a family vacation, but plans to sit down and clear up any issues that Matthews may have with the coach, according to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun.
“The expectation is the two of them are going to talk or have talked this weekend as they try to air things out and fix things between them,” Elliotte Friedman said during Hockey Night’s “Headlines” segment on Saturday.
The rift was first reported by Nick Kypreos after Game 7 of the first-round playoff series between the Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins. Both player and coach denied the accusation.
While Babcock’s trip to Arizona is being passed off as a family trip, Kypreos feels differently.
“It is common for star players sometimes to battle with their coaches for things such as ice time,” Kypreos said during intermission of the Penguins-Capitals game on Saturday. “But what isn’t that common is a week after [exit meetings]. It’s clear that this is a priority for Babcock, who’s hoping to smooth things out so come training camp, everyone’s on the same page.”
LeBrun, however, tweeted that Babcock also has plans to visit goaltender Frederik Andersen in Denmark soon as well.
Should Leafs Fans Really Worry About Babcock & Matthews?
It was mentioned in a recent PHR post that rumors of friction between Toronto Maple Leafs bench boss Mike Babcock and star Auston Matthews carried over into the postseason, a rift that was discussed at length by Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos who appeared on Sportsnet’s Starting Lineup. Kypreos believes that Babcock “lost” Matthews because, as Kypreos notes, Matthews went from being the “guy” for Babcock, and in what he calls a “Freaky Friday” situation, Mitch Marner emerged as Babcock’s “go to guy.” In addition to losing Matthews, Kypreos believes that there is “no trust” between the two, which of course, ignited a swell of stories regarding the relationship between the Leafs’ superstar and the man considered one of the best coaches in the game.
An Associated Press story refuted any sort of rift, quoting Babcock after he received a text from a friend asking if the stories were true. Along with taking a shot at the speculation, Babcock indicates he went straight to the source–Matthews:
“I said, ’What’s going on?’” Babcock told reporters of his conversation with Matthews. “It’s interesting in Toronto, you (media) do such a good job. You’re everywhere. You’re under the bench, you’re in the crack in the door, you’re in the car, you’re in the parking lot. You’re everywhere, and any time anybody does anything there’s a big story.
“I asked him flat-out, ‘Do we have any (issues)?’ He was sitting right there. We don’t seem to.”
Matthews responded as well:
“I don’t know what that’s all about,” he said. “Our relationship’s fine. Obviously, you guys can speculate all you want, but I think it’s pointless. Stuff happens, people speculate. I can tell you right now it’s not the case.”
If history is any indicator, this is likely much ado about nothing.
The Leafs just finished off their season in the most excruciating of ways: rallying from a 3-1 series deficit, holding a 4-3 lead heading into the third period of Game 7, and then watching Boston blow past them with four goals to seal the game, series, and Toronto’s season. Emotions from the players to the front office are going to be raw. Factor in that the Maple Leafs are under a microscope from local and national media, and you have a perfect platform for finger pointing.
Conflict with players is hardly new when it comes to Babcock. Known for his background in psychology and tough love, news has always followed the coach that players were either passing on a contract to play for him or that he was alienating players on his current roster. Chris Chelios famously came out after Babcock went to Toronto and said on a Detroit radio show that the Red Wings would have a better shot at free agents because Babcock was “a tough guy to play for.” Chelios was speaking more for veterans, as he commented that younger guys benefitted from Babcock because he held them “accountable.” Captain Henrik Zetterberg, in comments to MLive’s Ansar Khan back in 2015, spoke about how both the team and Babcock were ready to move on from one another. Though he never came out and spoke poorly of Babcock, many inferred from his words that players were tiring of him.
The claims weren’t unique to Detroit, either. Jeremy Roenick, back in 2009, argued that Babcock didn’t like American players. Going all the way back to 2003, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks insinuated that former Ducks Teemu Selanne and Paul Kariya bolted Anaheim for Colorado because of Babcock’s “unforgiving system.”
Mike Babcock is a tough coach to play for. That has been chronicled since he first came up with Anaheim. So why fret as a Leafs fan about friction between its star player and coach? History has revealed that any team with Mike Babcock will certainly see some kind of conflict with his players–as well as the success that has followed Babcock from Anaheim, to Detroit, and finally, to Toronto.
Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Pilut, Matthews
TSN has released a special top-15 ranking prior to tomorrow’s draft lottery, and Rasmus Dahlin remains the unanimous choice for first overall. Beyond that, the trio of forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk fill out 2-4 while four other defenseman land in the top ten.
There will undoubtedly be plenty of debate in the coming months, but one thing seems certain. Whoever wins the draft lottery tomorrow night will have Dahlin in their lineup come October. That may seem premature, but scouts seem to agree that he’ll be an impact player from day one. Make sure to tune in between the first and second periods of the Vegas Golden Knights-San Jose Sharks tomorrow night.
- John Vogl of the Buffalo News reports on rumors that Lawrence Pilut has signed with the Buffalo Sabres, adding that a deal can’t be officially announced until the defenseman finishes his stint with the Swedish national team. Pilut, 22, registered 38 points for HV71 in the SHL this season, leading all defensemen. Undersized but talented, he would add some skill to a defense corps in Buffalo that has had trouble moving the puck in recent years.
- Though there had been some rumors about a potential rift between Mike Babcock and Auston Matthews, both parties denied any problems when asked today during their season-ending media availability. Both men are obviously disappointed by the results of Wednesday’s game 7 against the Boston Bruins, but made it clear that nothing had changed in their relationship.
Evening Notes: Maple Leafs, Ducks, Holland
The Toronto Maple Leafs were so close, and yet so far away. Clawing their way back from a 3-1 series deficit, the Leafs surrendered the seventh game to a Boston team who came out flying the final period. In the latest iteration of his 31 thoughts, Sportsnet’s Elliott Friedman writes that the Maple Leafs need to clarify their front office structure after a gut-wrenching game seven loss. Writes Friedman, who says that the Leafs young front office talent is ready to move up:
(Kyle) Dubas and (Mark) Hunter are OHL rivals from London and Sault Ste. Marie. What does promotion for one mean for the other? And, what does it mean for Lamoriello? Would he want to stay in an advisory role? Or could another organization come calling?
Honestly, I don’t have a great feel for it. There are some executives who believe Shanahan will change things, others who believe he will keep status quo into 2018–19. We’re guessing, but we’re soon to get our answer.
Friedman adds that the Leafs will have decisions to make with a number of key players, as Auston Matthews’ contract negotiations will “dominate conversation.”
- Friedman writes that Ducks GM Bob Murray said there is still a lot of “emotion” after Anaheim bowed out of the playoffs quickly against the Sharks. Friedman reports that he was in Ontario watching some of the Ducks prospects, and admitted that the game is being played at a much faster pace–and a version that he would like to see played and would have been played more if not for an injury plagued 2017-18.
- Freidman reports that Red Wings general manager Ken Holland will be one of several GMs to be present at the draft lottery on Saturday. Holland spoke with MLive’s Ansar Khan during AHL affiliate Grand Rapids Griffins’ 6-3 loss and told Khan that there will be no express line and that young prospects have to be an “NHL player” in order to make the roster. This type of thinking is a slight move from Holland’s “overly ripe” mentality for years, which was skewered by fans and some analysts for letting talent wait too long before coming to the NHL, hurting the organization in the long run. Holland said as much to the Detroit Red Wings’ Art Regner in his Red and White Authority podcast, indicating that the Red Wings have a number of chances to stockpile young talent and give the younger players a chance.
Evening Notes: Cholowski, Maple Leafs, Kadri
One of the young players who Ken Holland spoke of at his recent press conference will be a step closer to breaking into the Red Wings future. Defenseman Dennis Cholowski will join the Grand Rapids Griffins, writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James, as his Portland Winterhawks were eliminated from the second round of the WHL playoffs. Cholowski has been tied to much of the criticism Red Wings fans have about Holland, being that the former was considered a “reach” by many draft analysts while Detroit traded out of a chance to grab Jakob Chychrun, who already has 118 NHL games to his name. The development of Cholowski will be watched closely by fans and Detroit’s brass. A solid year with both Prince George and Portland has seen his stock rise. St. James writes that Cholowski is expected to report to Grand Rapids as early as Tuesday.
- Sportsnet’s Sean McIndoe believes that the Maple Leafs-Bruins tilt tonight will be a better offering than what was seen during Thursday’s 5-1 game. McIndoe writes that a game two loss won’t spell doom for the Leafs, but it would certainly make for a tough hole to climb out of, needing to win four out of five against a tough Boston squad. With regards to losing Nazem Kadri, McIndoe wonders if Auston Matthews, William Nylander and James van Riemsdyk will compensate for his loss, as the Leafs forwards had a “quiet night.”
- McIndoe’s colleague Chris Johnston agrees with the Kadri analysis, writing that the loss of Kadri for three games was a “significant blow.” Johnston reports that the Leafs can still without him and compares it to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who played without Kris Letang, and even lost Sidney Crosby for a few games en route to their second consecutive Cup. The key, Johnston adds, is for the Maple Leafs to embrace the challenge instead of rueing it. He quotes bench boss Mike Babcock, who said: “(so) Let’s just get on with it. We went without a number of centers this year. Let’s play.” Known for his background in psychology, it benefits Toronto even more to have Babcock there to focus on the sunnier side of their predicament.
Morning Notes: O’Reilly, Maple Leafs, De Haan
The Buffalo Sabres held their locker clean out today after another season where they find themselves at the very bottom of the standings. The Sabres will have the best chance at selecting first overall in the upcoming draft, but that didn’t cheer up Ryan O’Reilly, who spoke candidly about how he has struggled with morale this season. O’Reilly is quoted in John Vogl’s piece for the Buffalo News:
We’re stuck in this mindset of just being OK with losing. I feel it, too. I think it’s really crept into myself. Over the course of the year, I’ve lost myself a lot, where it’s just kind of get through, just being OK with just not making a mistake. That’s not winning hockey at all, and it’s crept into all of our games.
It’s disappointing. It’s sad. I feel throughout the year I’ve lost the love of the game multiple times. You need to get back to it because it’s just eating myself up and eats the other guys, too. It’s just eating us up, and it’s tough.
The Sabres have finished out of the playoffs for the last seven seasons, and haven’t had any real postseason success in over a decade. With a rookie coach and GM in Phil Housley and Jason Botterill, things will have to turn around quickly if they want ownership to stick with them long-term. Jack Eichel will begin his $80MM contract extension next season, while O’Reilly still has five years at $7.5MM left on his deal. Those two will have to be the key members of any bounce back, though they’ll certainly need some help along the way.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs will carry $2.55MM in bonuses over to next season according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, who notes that they also have close to $21MM coming off the books this summer. Interestingly, that bonus number could still increase by another $2MM should Auston Matthews take home the Conn Smythe trophy. The Maple Leafs will have a reduced amount of cap room because of it, and plenty of decisions to make on unrestricted free agents like James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov.
- Calvin de Haan would welcome a return to the New York Islanders according to Andrew Gross of Newsday, but is aware of the lack of defensemen on the free agent market this summer. de Haan’s season ended in December after just 33 games, which clouds his future considerably. At one point (including on our Midseason UFA Power Rankings) he looked like he was set to hit the market as one of the best defensemen available. Now, it’s entirely unclear if he’ll be able to secure a long-term deal at all.
East Notes: Matthews, Zuccarello, Elliott
Last summer, the Oilers wasted little time locking up center Connor McDavid to a max eight-year extension worth $100MM. Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews and Jets winger Patrik Laine are eligible to ink their second contracts as of July 1st but Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos suggests (video link) that Toronto, in particular, may not be as eager to get something done as soon as possible. He notes that wingers Mitch Marner (also eligible for an extension in July) and William Nylander (RFA) also need new deals and that signing Matthews may create a domino effect for those two. If they are indeed concerned about that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a possible new deal for Matthews wait until later in the offseason.
More from the East:
- Although he was frequently speculated as someone who could be dealt before the trade deadline, Rangers winger Mats Zuccarello acknowledged to Justin Tasch of the New York Daily News that he still expects to be with the team next season. The 30-year-old has one year left on his contract after this one at a team-friendly cap hit of $4.5MM. However, given where New York is in their rebuilding phase, there remains a good chance that he could be dealt in the summer.
- Flyers goaltender Brian Elliott was not in uniform for today’s overtime victory over the Bruins but Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post notes that the team is hopeful that he will get into at least one game this week, if not two as he works his way back from abdominal surgery. His return would give them stability between the pipes heading into the postseason as acquisition Petr Mrazek has been inconsistent while veteran Michal Neuvirth is also banged up once again after suffering a lower-body injury back on Wednesday against Colorado.
NHLPA Approves Proposed Changes To Lottery Odds
In what has become an annual event, the NHL Players’ Association has yet again approved changes to the NHL Draft lottery odds. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the NHLPA today signed off on a new lottery set-up recently submitted by the league. It marks the third season in a row that the odds have been altered.
The percentage chance that a team is selected to pick first, second, or third, as expressed by the number of ping pong balls present in the lottery draw, is dependent on where they finish in the overall league standings. Unsurprisingly, the changes to the odds first agreed upon in the Collective Bargaining Agreement began with the Edmonton Oilers and the painful realization that they had won yet another lottery in 2015 and would move up in the draft order to select Connor McDavid as their fourth first overall pick in a six year span. In response, the league significantly boosted the odds in 2016 toward the teams finishing last winning the lottery – expecting that Edmonton would no longer be in that range – as LeBrun notes that the 30th-place team had 20% odds of picking first two years ago. After the worst team in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs, retained the top pick that year and selected Auston Matthews, the league and NHLPA again agreed to lessen the odds and insert more chance (and excitement) into the lottery. LeBrun indicates that last year the league’s worst, the Colorado Avalanche, had an 18% chance of holding on to the top pick. However, in a wild turn of events, three teams outside the bottom four won the lottery and moved into the top three draft slots, the biggest shift being the Philadelphia Flyers, who narrowly missed the playoffs, picking second. So, to perhaps combat another clean sweep, the odds have again been increased for those toward the bottom
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the new odds of selecting first for the upcoming 2018 NHL Draft will be 18.5% for 31st, 13.5% for 30th, and 11.5% for 29th. With the addition of an extra non-playoff team, there is also a new distribution which in fact increases the odds for the last team to miss the playoffs, the 17th-place finisher, by a tenth of a percent to 1%. This is accomplished by lessening the odds for the middle-of-the pack lottery teams. It may not be a coincidence that the Oilers are part of that group. Nor may it be a coincidence that the current bottom three – the Buffalo Sabres, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes – are all teams that have been struggling for years and would certainly appreciate retaining their high picks. This yearly change in draft lottery odds seems to be very responsive to the results of each prior lottery, but that isn’t a bad thing. So long as both the league and NHLPA agree, it’s safe to assume that the changes have the best interests of competitive balance in mind.