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Extension Candidates: 2017 Restricted Free Agents

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After Artemi Panarin signed a two-year extension earlier today that will pay him $6MM per season and take him right up to unrestricted free agency, the RFA pool for this summer got a little bit smaller. Other extensions that have already been signed include Aaron Ekblad (Eight years, $60MM), Jake Allen (Four years, $17.4MM) and Victor Hedman (Eight years, $63MM).

Even though these big names are already locked up long-term, there are a ton of other restricted free agents that will be negotiating extensions between now and July 1st. Here are a few big names who become RFAs this summer.

Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton: The former third-overall pick who once scored 192 points in 29 German junior-league games, has broken out this season with 31 points in 36 games. Already coming off a 50 point season, this 70 point pace puts him in elite territory up front.  Only 21 years old, the Oilers will be looking to lock him up long-term to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid well into their peak years.

Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal: Another third-overall pick who put up a 50+ point season a year ago, Galchenyuk was off to a brilliant start before going down with injury early this month. Because he’ll be out for another month at least, Galchenyuk won’t rush into a contract that may not be representative of his development. This one might head into the summer, but if he comes back strong perhaps the two sides can come together before what looks like a long playoff run.

David Pastrnak, Boston: Not quite the same situation faces Pastrnak, who before this year showed promise but hadn’t played a full season in the NHL. With 26 points already he’s about to set his career-high and has a chance at a 40-goal season.  Boston has a lot of money already tied up long-term in their forward group, with David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes and Brad Marchand all under contract through at least 2020-21. They may not be able to afford buying out UFA years this summer, meaning a one or two year pact is more likely.

Snapshots: Kings, Hunlack, Bogosian

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In his latest column, ESPN Insider Pierre LeBrun takes a look at the Los Angeles Kings roster and suggest strategies for the upcoming expansion draft. LeBrun boils the issue down to two names: Brayden McNabb and Dustin Brown. If the team wishes to protect McNabb, they’ll have to go the “eight skaters” option, since Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez will undoubtedly need protection. If they do, they put at risk some of their big names up front, including former captain Dustin Brown. While Brown is coming off the worst year of his career, he’s turned it around a bit this season and may be an interesting option for the Vegas team to bring in a veteran forward who could immediately become their first captain.

On the other hand, if they choose to leave McNabb exposed he may not necessarily be the selection since he only has one year remaining before becoming a highly sought after free agent in 2018. At 27, the shutdown defender would have teams lining up to bring him into the fold, and he’ll be looking for a substantial raise from the $1.8MM he’ll make next season.  For the Kings, just like every other team, the expansion draft will be a game of chicken with George McPhee and the Vegas front office.

  • In Toronto, a nickname has surfaced for the veteran third pairing of Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak; “Hunlack”, as many fans refer to the duo has been chided incessantly by the analytics community for their constant struggle with possession metrics. While the two rank terribly in terms of Corsi and Fenwick, head coach Mike Babcock dismisses the notion that they’re unplayable. When asked by Chris Johnston of Sportsnet what makes up a good game for them, Babcock replied “There’s a bunch of ways to look at the game. So Corsi’s one, maybe. But who turns the video on and rewinds to see if those shots actually hit the net or not? Because our math and theirs don’t add up. So what I do is I say: ’Did the puck go in or did they get scoring chances against?'” While the metrics available to the public don’t necessarily share Babcock’s assesment of the pairing, he does seem to imply that the Maple Leafs’ internal numbers don’t match up exactly.  Perhaps even though ’Hunlack’ doesn’t generate shots like Toronto’s other pairings, they can be effective in other ways – or maybe it’s just talking them up for the trade deadline.
  • For Buffalo, their season-long struggle with injuries is starting to see an end. After Jack Eichel has rejoined the team and shown why he shouldn’t be forgotten as last season’s second-overall pick, the team got more good news today. Zach Bogosian, out since the beginning of November with a knee injury, took full part in today’s practice and should be back before long. Now they just have to figure out a way to motivate Zemgus Girgensons and Evander Kane, both of whom will skate on the fourth line tonight against the Los Angeles Kings.

Western Conference Notes: Stars, Red Wings, Labanc, Toews, Seabrook

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A year after riding the league’s most prolific offense to a Central Division title, the Dallas Stars have been beset by injuries and currently sit on the outside looking in at a postseason berth. Obviously the absences of key players like Ales Hemsky, Patrick Sharp, Jiri Hudler, Mattias Janmark and Cody Eakin for parts – or in the case of Janmark, all – of the season has played a role. However, Mike Heika addressed another possible factor for the team’s on-ice struggles in a recent mailbag feature.

When asked what trade he would make if he were the GM to improve the Stars, Heika suggested making a relatively minor deal sending blue liner Patrik Nemeth to Detroit for a goalie prospect. While on the surface it’s difficult to envision a trade of this nature having much of an impact on the ice for either team, Heika reasons that moving one of the eight defensemen on the roster would “alleviate the pressure of eight defensemen for the players and the coaching staff and that could immediately make a player such as Jamie Oleksiak better.” 

Ordinarily having quality depth is considered a good thing but perhaps not when it comes to the Stars blue line. As Heika suggests, carrying seven blue liners may allow head coach Lindy Ruff to more easily identify consistent defense pairings.

While this does not qualify as an actual trade rumor, Heika’s hypothetical deal does provide a look at what the Stars brass may actually consider at some point. The team does have solid depth on the back end and with neither Antti Niemi nor Kari Lehtonen performing well between the pipes for Dallas, the Stars could certainly find themselves in the market for a young goaltender-of-the-future.

  •  Highly-regarded rookie Kevin Labanc isn’t exactly lighting up the league with just three goals and five points in the first 14 games of his NHL career. But after going scoreless in his first four, the 20-year-old winger – 21 on December 12th – has been more productive of late with all of his points coming in the last 10 contests. As Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area writes, the mini outburst from Labanc has already helped the youngster leapfrog veteran forwards Joonas Donskoi, Joe Thornton and Mikkel Boedker in the goal-scoring department. As Kurz notes, Labanc’s contributions have likely earned him a regular role on the Sharks for the balance of 2016-17.
  • Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune provides an update on the status of Jonathan Toews and Brent Seabrook. Toews has missed the past eight contests with a back problem while Seabrook missed his first game of the season with an upper-body-injury. Hawks bench boss Joel Quennville has already said that before returning to the lineup, both players will need to skate with the team. To this point, neither player has been able to do so, though Seabrook’s injury is a recent development. The injury to Toews has to be of great concern to the Blackhawks. There is no timetable for a return and back injuries can be problematic, leading to the possibility Chicago’s top pivot could be odd for a while yet.

Early Returns On Summer Blockbusters

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Typically, free agency items dominate hockey headlines in the latter days of June. However, the events of June 29th changed that dynamic in the 2016 offseason. First, the marquee name available in free agency, Steven Stamkos, agreed to remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning, inking an eight-year extension with the team and effectively ruining the offseason plans of several other NHL clubs. Second, a pair of rare, player-for-player blockbuster trades were completed, shocking all who follow and cover the league.

Desperately searching to upgrade the team’s blue line, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli agreed to ship top-line left wing Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Not long after that deal was announced, the Nashville Predators dealt team captain and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber to Montreal for the electric P.K. Subban.

While it’s too early to make any definitive judgments as to which teams may have come out ahead in their respective exchanges, it is possible to analyze the early returns and see how much each club has benefited from the transactions.

Montreal –  While there is no question P.K. Subban is a supremely skilled player, as the 2015-16 season played out it appeared as if head coach Michel Therrien and GM Marc Bergevin had grown weary of the defender’s high-risk, high-reward playing style. In Weber they get a veteran blue liner who boasts the league’s hardest shot and one who has long been a stalwart for Team Canada in numerous international events. Weber has also had a productive start to his Habs career, with eight goals and 18 points through 27 games.

Nashville – The team may have lost the longtime face of their franchise but they did add a dynamic talent who is four years Weber’s junior and has perhaps a more favorable contractual situation. While Subban’s cap hit is more than $1M higher annually through the 2021-22 campaign, his contract expires four years earlier than Weber’s and does not come with the likelihood of a cap recapture penalty. Subban is slowly growing more comfortable in his new home and has produced nearly identical numbers to his counterpart, tallying seven goals and 17 points through 26 contests.

Verdict – With Montreal currently sitting in the top spot in the Eastern Conference it’s hard to argue the trade hasn’t paid off exactly as Bergevin hoped. Weber plays a more conservative style of hockey which Therrien clearly prefers and he is still an impact player at both ends of the ice. On the flip side Subban gives the Nashville market a huge personality and a bankable star. He has quickly endeared himself to the Predators fans off the ice and is still producing on the ice. This deal has worked out for both clubs about as well as could have been hoped.

New Jersey – After ranking dead last in goals scored in 2015-16, the Devils desperately needed an infusion of skill and that’s exactly what they got in Hall. In 19 games this season, Hall is averaging better than a point-per-game for his new team and gives the Devils a legitimate, goal-scoring threat they haven’t had since Zach Parise resided in Jersey.

Edmonton – Larsson doesn’t contribute much in the offensive end of the ice – just six points in 30 contests this season – but has at least provided steady play on the back end for Edmonton. Chiarelli perhaps could have pursued a more dynamic player to address his team’s dire need on the blue line but Larsson came with the cost-certainty that RFA options like Mathew Dumba and Jacob Trouba did not. The Oilers will soon have to consider extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – neither of which will come cheap – and getting Larsson in the midst of a long-term deal with a manageable cap hit carries additional value.

Verdict – Hall is clearly the better and more valuable player, both today and into the future. But to Chiarelli’s credit, he knew his team needed to improve on the back end and was willing to lose the trade to make his team better. It’s probable the Oilers GM simply was not content maintaining the status quo and made the best deal available to upgrade the blue line. With the Oilers at the top of the Pacific Division standings, Chiarelli is likely pleased with how this deal has worked out for Edmonton.

Custance’s Latest: Projecting Those Most Affected By Flat Cap

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The NHL’s Board of Governors (BOG) are in the midst of two days of meetings designed to cover several important topics before wrapping up today. Chief among them – and of particular interest to team executives as well as fans of the sport – is an early projection of the 2017-18 salary cap ceiling. Commissioner Gary Bettman advised the BOG to expect a modest increase, perhaps as much as $2MM, if any at all. Specifically, Bettman suggested the salary cap may remain flat. Naturally, that may present problems for several teams already close to the cap ceiling while pending free agents might find their respective markets depressed due to fewer clubs being in position to take on big salaries.

Craig Custance of ESPN.com wrote about a few teams and players who stand to be affected the most should the salary cap ceiling remain flat for the 2017-18 campaign. Among those he listed were Artemi Panarin, who will be a RFA coming off his ELC and in line for a massive raise. As we already know, Chicago is tight up against the cap and have already been forced to deal away key contributors due to a lack of cap space – Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp and Teuvo Teravainen, for instance. They’ll likely have another tough decision to make given the situation.

Tampa Bay and their GM, Steve Yzerman, are two others Custance mentions as being impacted by a flat cap. The Lightning are set to watch Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat become RFAs this summer and with just less than $60MM in cap commitments already on the books for 2017-18, it’s highly unlikely that Yzerman will be able to re-sign all three players.

In addition to those already brought up by Custance, there are several other clubs who will have a difficult time navigating the salary cap if the ceiling remains at or near the $73MM mark. Here are a few of those teams:

  • Los Angeles Kings – The Kings already have just more than $60MM committed to the 2017-18 salary cap with forwards Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli slated to become RFAs next summer. Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16 and while his scoring out put is down some this year, he could still easily command upwards of $4MM annually on a new contract. Pearson, meanwhile recorded 36 points last year and is on pace for about that same total this season. That could well push his salary north of $3MM next year.
  • New York Rangers – The Blueshirts might be in a bigger bind than the Kings. They have about $63MM tied up in 2017-18 commitments with top-six center Mika Zibanejad and checking forward Jesper Fast, among several others, scheduled to become RFA’s. On top of that, the team will likely be in the market for a blue line upgrade and unless they can find a way to unload one of Dan Girardi or Marc Staal, the Rangers won’t have enough cap space to make an impact addition in free agency.
  • Detroit Red Wings – The Red Wings are projected to have less than $5MM in cap space next season with Thomas Vanek hitting free agency. Additionally, five other players will be RFAs, including Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco. It’s hard to imagine the Wings being anything more than a fringe playoff contender next season given their current roster and with virtually no salary cap space available next season, as it’ll be tough for the team to improve through free agency.

Johnny Gaudreau Set To Return Three Weeks Ahead Of Schedule

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According to the Calgary Flames official Twitter account, star winger Johnny Gaudreau is set to return to action and is expected to play tonight. Gaudreau underwent surgery to repair a broken finger on November 17th and at that point was expected to miss six weeks. Clearly the diminutive winger is quick to heal as he bested the initial timeline by more than three weeks.

Gaudreau was off to a somewhat slow start in 2016-17 with just 11 points in 17 games and a -10 plus-minus rating. Although the gifted forward appeared to be getting his game on track, scoring three goals and four points in the four games prior to suffering the injury. In 2015-16 Gaudreau averaged nearly a point-per-game and finished tied for sixth in the league in scoring with 78 points.

Calgary has fared surprisingly well during Gaudreau’s absence. The Flames have won six of 10 decisions and accumulated 13 points since Gaudreau went down with the injury. That push has helped the Flames resurface in the playoff race out west after a slow start to the season. Gaudreau’s return should only help Calgary in their continued pursuit of a postseason berth.

 

Peter Holland Stays Home During Maple Leafs Road Trip

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2:11pm: Darren Dreger has a quote from Resnick:

Peter and Lou met this weekend. At this time, it appears that Peter’s future with the club is limited and Lou will do his best to trade him. Lou also stated that Peter not go on the road trip during this time frame.

It seems like Lamoriello is trying to protect his asset from any sudden injury by keeping him at home during the road trip, but whatever value he had must have been damaged by the public admission that he’s trying to trade him. We’ll see if the Maple Leafs can get anything of substance for the struggling forward.

1:21pm: Uncertainty around the fringes of the Maple Leafs roster continues, as today Peter Holland was not present at the morning skate in Edmonton. According to Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun, Holland stayed home after talking to his agent Joe Resnick.  Luke Fox of Sportsnet also tells us that Resnick met with Lou Lamoriello recently, and Darren Dreger says that he “absolutely wanted to go on Leafs’ trip west in hopes of playing.”

The expectation, from Dreger and Kristen Shilton of TSN, is that either a trade or waivers will follow soon for the 25-year old. Holland cleared waivers earlier this summer while negotiating a new contract and has only seen eight games through the early part of the season, registering a single point.

Since being drafted by Anaheim 15th overall in 2009, Holland has developed into a solid bottom-six player that contributes around 10 goals and 25 points per season. The Leafs and head coach Mike Babcock seem to have grown tired of him however, as even when he’s dressed he’s only seen around ten minutes of ice time per game.

With the impending return of Josh Leivo from injury, the team had a decision to make about the last roster spot, and it seems as though it won’t go to Holland. If he is placed on waivers, it will be interesting to see if another team takes a chance on him this time around. He’s currently earning $1.3MM on his second RFA contract.

Metro Division Snapshots: Islanders, Hall, Stolarz

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The use of advanced statistics and analytics is becoming more prevalent in the NHL with each passing year. Along with that, advances in technology have improved both the quantity and the quality the information available to teams. Companies who develop analytics platforms utilizing new technology continue to pop up and one, a startup based in Russia and called Iceberg, is now being employed by the NHL’s New York Islanders, according to this article on Bloomberg.com.

As Bloomberg goes on to report, Iceberg is already working with professional teams in the KHL, Sweden and Austria and now has its first NHL client. The platform includes several cameras small enough to fit into a suit case and easy enough to set up at any venue within minutes. The software is able to identify and track any player on the ice surface and its algorithms gauge up to 500 metrics while also suggesting which players to put on the ice in any situation.

It remains to be seen how effective the new platform will be for the teams employing it. As Henrik Evertsson, GM of the Vaxjo Lakers of the Swedish League, indicates, the system is just one of many tools decision-makers will use:

“We hadn’t jumped on this wagon if we didn’t believe in the system. It will be one tool of many in our toolbox.”

While advanced analytics will never fully replace traditional scouting, it can greatly augment the “eyeball test,” and serve as an important element of evaluation and decision-making in the game.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Taylor Hall underwent knee surgery to repair meniscus damage nine days ago. The injury was expected to keep the goal-scoring winger out of action for three-to-four weeks but Devils head coach John Hynes tells NJ.com’s Chris Ryan that Hall is “a little bit ahead of schedule,” in his rehab. Hall has already missed six games – tonight makes it seven – during which the Devils have gone 2 – 4 – 0 while scoring 14 goals. Hall, who is tied for the team lead in goals with three others, is the Devils most potent offensive weapon. His return, particularly if it comes earlier than expected, will provide the Devils a much-needed spark as they attempt to remain in the playoff hunt as long as possible.
  • The Philadelphia Flyers have struggled in the goal-prevention department, ranking dead last in goals allowed this season. Much of the blame can be placed on the team’s goaltending duo, Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth, who have combined for a Save % of 0.879. With Neuvirth out of the lineup for up to a month, the Flyers recalled goaltending prospect Anthony Stolarz, and the 22-year-old net minder will make history tomorrow night by becoming the first New Jersey-born goalie to play in the NHL, as Tim Panaccio of CSN Philly reports.

 

The 2016 All UFA Bargain Team

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Organizations generally wait until around the quarter mark of the campaign before making determinations on their team. Are they contenders or pretenders? Do they anticipate being buyers or sellers at the deadline? These are among the questions teams begin to ponder at this point in the season. Subsequently, now seems like a good time to look back at the summer’s free agent signings to see which are outperforming expectations and can safely be called free agent bargains.

Forward

Eric Staal (Minnesota) – Three years, $10.5MM: After a down season in 2015-16 split between Carolina and the New York Rangers, questions surfaced about whether Staal was a legitimate top-line center or if his decline in production was representative of a player past his prime. Staal recorded 10 consecutive seasons – 2005-06 through 2014-15 – in which he recorded at least 53 points but stumbled to a 39-point output last season. Those concerns led to a discounted contract which compensates Staal at the level of a well-paid third liner as opposed to a top-line player.

Staal has rebounded this season and through 20 games with the Wild, the 13-year veteran has registered 15 points. Perhaps a better sign his early-season production may be based more on ability than on luck, Staal is back to averaging close to three shots per game. Last season he averaged just 2.4 shots per contest and for his career he is at 3.3. Staal is currently tied for 57th among forwards in points-per-game; a rank perfectly in line with that of a top-line forward.

Jonathan Marchessault (Florida) – Two years, $1.5MM: Marchessault could prove to be the steal of the summer. He signed a two-year deal with the Panthers worth just $1.5MM this summer after failing to find a permanent role in either Columbus or Tampa Bay. Through 20 games in South Florida, the 25-year-old forward has nine goals and seven helpers and is on pace for a 65-point campaign.

While Marchessault struggled to earn regular NHL work prior to this season, he has an excellent junior and minor league track record. In 306 AHL games, the 5-foot-9, 174-pound wing tallied 98 goals and 262 points. That success at least suggests Marchessault can continue to produce at the level of a top-six forward. That’s a steal for $750K.

Michael Grabner (New York Rangers) – Two years, $3.3MM: Grabner was a solid producer while with the Islanders, averaging 0.30 goals-per-game over parts of five seasons. But after registering just nine goals and 18 points in 80 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs during the 2015-16 campaign, Grabner was available at a bargain price for the Rangers.

All he’s done for the Blue Shirts is register 12 goals, all at even strength, and 16 points in 22 games with the Rangers. He ranks third overall in goals scored while his total at even strength leads the league. He’s also tops in the NHL in plus-minus with a rating of +20. His penalty-killing ability has also been welcome on Manhattan. Perhaps he won’t continue to produce at this level but even then, he’s well on his way to a 20-goal campaign which would be a tremendous return on a $1.65MM investment.

Defense

Brian Campbell (Chicago) – One year, $1.5MM: Campbell was dead set on returning to Chicago as a free agent this summer and he did, at a rate the cap-strapped Hawks could afford. Campbell has eight points in 22 games this season, despite seeing nearly four fewer minutes of ice time per contest than he averaged in 2014-15. Currently, the 37-year-old blue liner is on pace for a 29-point campaign, which is pretty good value relative to Chicago’s minimal commitment.

Patrick Wiercioch (Colorado) – One year, $800K: Wiercioch inked a one-year contract with Colorado after his previous employer, the Ottawa Senators, elected not to submit a qualifying offer to the restricted free agent. Wiercioch has been a good fit on the Avalanche blue line, ranking fifth on the team in scoring with eight points and leading the club with a +2 plus-minus rating. The 26-year-old has been utilized primarily as a third-pair defender and is fifth among the team’s blue liners in average ice time at 17:27 per game.

Goaltender

Chad Johnson (Calgary) – One year, $1.7MM: Johnson was signed by Calgary to ostensibly serve as the understudy to summer trade acquisition Brian Elliott. But while Elliot has struggled in his new surroundings – 3.43 GAA and a 0.882 Save % – Johnson has provided the Flames with steady play between the pipes. In 11 starts this season, Johnson has a GAA of just 1.98 and a Save % of 0.928. Only five goalies who have appeared in at least 10 games have a better GAA than Johnson.

 

How Will The Expansion Draft Impact Canadian Teams?

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Continuing our look at different expansion draft angles,  CBC’s Amy Cleveland examines how the draft will affect the seven teams in Canada. Laying out the rules for the draft, Cleveland looks further and prognosticates who she sees as “potentially protected” versus those players who would be “intriguing” in being exposed. She further writes that all seven Canadian teams will be able to protect the bulk of their important players. The Flames sit prettiest without any non-movement clauses in contracts while the Leafs and Senators have only one player with an NMC (Nathan Horton, and Dion Phaneuf respectively).

Below are Cleveland’s picks for each team. Going to CBC’s page with the story includes in depth reasoning behind each of Cleveland’s choices.

Calgary Flames
NMC protected players: None.

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Edmonton Oilers
NMC protected players: Milan Lucic (F), Andrej Sekera (D), Cam Talbot (G)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Montreal Canadiens
NMC protected players: Carey Price (G), Jeff Petry (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Ottawa Senators
NMC protected players: Dion Phaneuf (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Toronto Maple Leafs
NMC protected players: Nathan Horton (F)

Potentially protected: 

Vancouver Canucks
NMC protected players: Loui Eriksson (F), Daniel Sedin (F), Henrik Sedin (F)

Potentially protected: 

​Intriguing exposed: 

Winnipeg Jets
NMC protected players: Dustin Byfuglien (D), Toby Enstrom (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

 

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