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Johnny Gaudreau Set To Return Three Weeks Ahead Of Schedule

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According to the Calgary Flames official Twitter account, star winger Johnny Gaudreau is set to return to action and is expected to play tonight. Gaudreau underwent surgery to repair a broken finger on November 17th and at that point was expected to miss six weeks. Clearly the diminutive winger is quick to heal as he bested the initial timeline by more than three weeks.

Gaudreau was off to a somewhat slow start in 2016-17 with just 11 points in 17 games and a -10 plus-minus rating. Although the gifted forward appeared to be getting his game on track, scoring three goals and four points in the four games prior to suffering the injury. In 2015-16 Gaudreau averaged nearly a point-per-game and finished tied for sixth in the league in scoring with 78 points.

Calgary has fared surprisingly well during Gaudreau’s absence. The Flames have won six of 10 decisions and accumulated 13 points since Gaudreau went down with the injury. That push has helped the Flames resurface in the playoff race out west after a slow start to the season. Gaudreau’s return should only help Calgary in their continued pursuit of a postseason berth.

 

Peter Holland Stays Home During Maple Leafs Road Trip

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2:11pm: Darren Dreger has a quote from Resnick:

Peter and Lou met this weekend. At this time, it appears that Peter’s future with the club is limited and Lou will do his best to trade him. Lou also stated that Peter not go on the road trip during this time frame.

It seems like Lamoriello is trying to protect his asset from any sudden injury by keeping him at home during the road trip, but whatever value he had must have been damaged by the public admission that he’s trying to trade him. We’ll see if the Maple Leafs can get anything of substance for the struggling forward.

1:21pm: Uncertainty around the fringes of the Maple Leafs roster continues, as today Peter Holland was not present at the morning skate in Edmonton. According to Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun, Holland stayed home after talking to his agent Joe Resnick.  Luke Fox of Sportsnet also tells us that Resnick met with Lou Lamoriello recently, and Darren Dreger says that he “absolutely wanted to go on Leafs’ trip west in hopes of playing.”

The expectation, from Dreger and Kristen Shilton of TSN, is that either a trade or waivers will follow soon for the 25-year old. Holland cleared waivers earlier this summer while negotiating a new contract and has only seen eight games through the early part of the season, registering a single point.

Since being drafted by Anaheim 15th overall in 2009, Holland has developed into a solid bottom-six player that contributes around 10 goals and 25 points per season. The Leafs and head coach Mike Babcock seem to have grown tired of him however, as even when he’s dressed he’s only seen around ten minutes of ice time per game.

With the impending return of Josh Leivo from injury, the team had a decision to make about the last roster spot, and it seems as though it won’t go to Holland. If he is placed on waivers, it will be interesting to see if another team takes a chance on him this time around. He’s currently earning $1.3MM on his second RFA contract.

Metro Division Snapshots: Islanders, Hall, Stolarz

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The use of advanced statistics and analytics is becoming more prevalent in the NHL with each passing year. Along with that, advances in technology have improved both the quantity and the quality the information available to teams. Companies who develop analytics platforms utilizing new technology continue to pop up and one, a startup based in Russia and called Iceberg, is now being employed by the NHL’s New York Islanders, according to this article on Bloomberg.com.

As Bloomberg goes on to report, Iceberg is already working with professional teams in the KHL, Sweden and Austria and now has its first NHL client. The platform includes several cameras small enough to fit into a suit case and easy enough to set up at any venue within minutes. The software is able to identify and track any player on the ice surface and its algorithms gauge up to 500 metrics while also suggesting which players to put on the ice in any situation.

It remains to be seen how effective the new platform will be for the teams employing it. As Henrik Evertsson, GM of the Vaxjo Lakers of the Swedish League, indicates, the system is just one of many tools decision-makers will use:

“We hadn’t jumped on this wagon if we didn’t believe in the system. It will be one tool of many in our toolbox.”

While advanced analytics will never fully replace traditional scouting, it can greatly augment the “eyeball test,” and serve as an important element of evaluation and decision-making in the game.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Taylor Hall underwent knee surgery to repair meniscus damage nine days ago. The injury was expected to keep the goal-scoring winger out of action for three-to-four weeks but Devils head coach John Hynes tells NJ.com’s Chris Ryan that Hall is “a little bit ahead of schedule,” in his rehab. Hall has already missed six games – tonight makes it seven – during which the Devils have gone 2 – 4 – 0 while scoring 14 goals. Hall, who is tied for the team lead in goals with three others, is the Devils most potent offensive weapon. His return, particularly if it comes earlier than expected, will provide the Devils a much-needed spark as they attempt to remain in the playoff hunt as long as possible.
  • The Philadelphia Flyers have struggled in the goal-prevention department, ranking dead last in goals allowed this season. Much of the blame can be placed on the team’s goaltending duo, Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth, who have combined for a Save % of 0.879. With Neuvirth out of the lineup for up to a month, the Flyers recalled goaltending prospect Anthony Stolarz, and the 22-year-old net minder will make history tomorrow night by becoming the first New Jersey-born goalie to play in the NHL, as Tim Panaccio of CSN Philly reports.

 

The 2016 All UFA Bargain Team

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Organizations generally wait until around the quarter mark of the campaign before making determinations on their team. Are they contenders or pretenders? Do they anticipate being buyers or sellers at the deadline? These are among the questions teams begin to ponder at this point in the season. Subsequently, now seems like a good time to look back at the summer’s free agent signings to see which are outperforming expectations and can safely be called free agent bargains.

Forward

Eric Staal (Minnesota) – Three years, $10.5MM: After a down season in 2015-16 split between Carolina and the New York Rangers, questions surfaced about whether Staal was a legitimate top-line center or if his decline in production was representative of a player past his prime. Staal recorded 10 consecutive seasons – 2005-06 through 2014-15 – in which he recorded at least 53 points but stumbled to a 39-point output last season. Those concerns led to a discounted contract which compensates Staal at the level of a well-paid third liner as opposed to a top-line player.

Staal has rebounded this season and through 20 games with the Wild, the 13-year veteran has registered 15 points. Perhaps a better sign his early-season production may be based more on ability than on luck, Staal is back to averaging close to three shots per game. Last season he averaged just 2.4 shots per contest and for his career he is at 3.3. Staal is currently tied for 57th among forwards in points-per-game; a rank perfectly in line with that of a top-line forward.

Jonathan Marchessault (Florida) – Two years, $1.5MM: Marchessault could prove to be the steal of the summer. He signed a two-year deal with the Panthers worth just $1.5MM this summer after failing to find a permanent role in either Columbus or Tampa Bay. Through 20 games in South Florida, the 25-year-old forward has nine goals and seven helpers and is on pace for a 65-point campaign.

While Marchessault struggled to earn regular NHL work prior to this season, he has an excellent junior and minor league track record. In 306 AHL games, the 5-foot-9, 174-pound wing tallied 98 goals and 262 points. That success at least suggests Marchessault can continue to produce at the level of a top-six forward. That’s a steal for $750K.

Michael Grabner (New York Rangers) – Two years, $3.3MM: Grabner was a solid producer while with the Islanders, averaging 0.30 goals-per-game over parts of five seasons. But after registering just nine goals and 18 points in 80 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs during the 2015-16 campaign, Grabner was available at a bargain price for the Rangers.

All he’s done for the Blue Shirts is register 12 goals, all at even strength, and 16 points in 22 games with the Rangers. He ranks third overall in goals scored while his total at even strength leads the league. He’s also tops in the NHL in plus-minus with a rating of +20. His penalty-killing ability has also been welcome on Manhattan. Perhaps he won’t continue to produce at this level but even then, he’s well on his way to a 20-goal campaign which would be a tremendous return on a $1.65MM investment.

Defense

Brian Campbell (Chicago) – One year, $1.5MM: Campbell was dead set on returning to Chicago as a free agent this summer and he did, at a rate the cap-strapped Hawks could afford. Campbell has eight points in 22 games this season, despite seeing nearly four fewer minutes of ice time per contest than he averaged in 2014-15. Currently, the 37-year-old blue liner is on pace for a 29-point campaign, which is pretty good value relative to Chicago’s minimal commitment.

Patrick Wiercioch (Colorado) – One year, $800K: Wiercioch inked a one-year contract with Colorado after his previous employer, the Ottawa Senators, elected not to submit a qualifying offer to the restricted free agent. Wiercioch has been a good fit on the Avalanche blue line, ranking fifth on the team in scoring with eight points and leading the club with a +2 plus-minus rating. The 26-year-old has been utilized primarily as a third-pair defender and is fifth among the team’s blue liners in average ice time at 17:27 per game.

Goaltender

Chad Johnson (Calgary) – One year, $1.7MM: Johnson was signed by Calgary to ostensibly serve as the understudy to summer trade acquisition Brian Elliott. But while Elliot has struggled in his new surroundings – 3.43 GAA and a 0.882 Save % – Johnson has provided the Flames with steady play between the pipes. In 11 starts this season, Johnson has a GAA of just 1.98 and a Save % of 0.928. Only five goalies who have appeared in at least 10 games have a better GAA than Johnson.

 

How Will The Expansion Draft Impact Canadian Teams?

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Continuing our look at different expansion draft angles,  CBC’s Amy Cleveland examines how the draft will affect the seven teams in Canada. Laying out the rules for the draft, Cleveland looks further and prognosticates who she sees as “potentially protected” versus those players who would be “intriguing” in being exposed. She further writes that all seven Canadian teams will be able to protect the bulk of their important players. The Flames sit prettiest without any non-movement clauses in contracts while the Leafs and Senators have only one player with an NMC (Nathan Horton, and Dion Phaneuf respectively).

Below are Cleveland’s picks for each team. Going to CBC’s page with the story includes in depth reasoning behind each of Cleveland’s choices.

Calgary Flames
NMC protected players: None.

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Edmonton Oilers
NMC protected players: Milan Lucic (F), Andrej Sekera (D), Cam Talbot (G)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Montreal Canadiens
NMC protected players: Carey Price (G), Jeff Petry (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Ottawa Senators
NMC protected players: Dion Phaneuf (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Toronto Maple Leafs
NMC protected players: Nathan Horton (F)

Potentially protected: 

Vancouver Canucks
NMC protected players: Loui Eriksson (F), Daniel Sedin (F), Henrik Sedin (F)

Potentially protected: 

​Intriguing exposed: 

Winnipeg Jets
NMC protected players: Dustin Byfuglien (D), Toby Enstrom (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

 

Canucks Sign Ben Hutton To Two-Year Extension

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The Vancouver Canucks have found some certainty during this difficult season. Today they announced that they’ve signed Ben Hutton to a two-year extension that will pay him $2.8MM annually. The deal will kick in at the start of the 2017-18 season.<a rel=

After selecting Hutton in the fifth-round of the 2012 draft (147th overall), the Canucks couldn’t have envisioned his quick rise to the NHL blueline. At just 22 last season, Hutton led all Vancouver defensemen in points with 25, in what would be an excellent rookie campaign. While he has only four points this season, he’s been relied upon even more, logging over 21 minutes a night.

With the Canucks floundering somewhere between contending and rebuilding, Hutton is a shining light for the future. The team will, however, be spending quite a bit of money on their defense next season as Erik Gudbranson and Nikita Tryamkin are up for new contracts and Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev and Luca Sbisa already cost $13MM combined.  It’ll be an interesting offseason for a team who put money up this summer to try and compete during the closing Sedin window, but have gotten off to a tough 8-10-2 start.

With Hutton signed, GM Jim Benning says next on the list is former first-round pick Bo Horvat, a player he’d like to sign long-term if possible. The Canucks have roughly $55MM committed to just 15 players for next season, meaning that they’ll have somewhere around $18-20MM (depending on where the cap lands) to fill out their roster. Horvat, Gudbranson, and Tryamkin join many other including Brendan Gaunce and Michael Chaput on the team’s long list of RFAs this summer. If Horvat does indeed get a long-term deal, he’ll substantially eat into that cap space.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Division Notes: Sedins, Desjardins, Doan, Flames

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We’ve covered the Canucks awful start, which is largely driven by a poor offense, and how the job of head coach Willie Desjardins has been affected as a result. Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Province offers additional insight into the situation, relaying this quote from team president Trevor Linden on Desjardins’ job security from an interview yesterday on TSN 1040:

“We know this topic has been widely covered and it’s definitely not something I, or we, plan to debate publicly.”

On the surface that doesn’t sound particularly ominous but as Botchford pointed out, that was no vote of confidence and in the opinion of the scribe the statement was “ice cold.” In the past Linden has been a vocal supporter of his head coach but there wasn’t much support contained in that brief statement.

Botchford expressed the odds around the league were 50/50 whether Desjardins would be relieved of his duties before their current road trip and evidently, he has done nothing to swing the pendulum in his favor.

Whether or not the team eventually does fire Desjardins, it’s unlikely his replacement would be able to do much better unless the players start performing significantly better.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • From the same piece, Botchford ponders whether the team should trade Henrik and Daniel Sedin, even if the team has to retain half of their salaries to do so. He argues that the twins are still far-and-away the team’s best players and subtracting them would leave the Canucks bereft of quality talent. Botchford finds it difficult to fathom the team could recoup anything close to fair value in a trade, particularly since they would certainly require being dealt to the same team. He also points out that the team really has no succession plan in place. While the Canucks have some quality young talent, both on the big league roster and in the system, they don’t have the type of prospects likely to develop into a franchise-type player. Ultimately Botchford posits that the Canucks would accomplish one of two things by trading the Sedins; either they essentially gut the franchise or they finally provide the needed roster and salary cap flexibility to begin a real rebuild of the organization.
  • Craig Morgan, writing for Arizona Sports, delves into Shane Doan’s early struggles and wonders whether it’s a sign that the longtime Coyotes team captain is nearing the end of a terrific career or if it is just another in what has been a fairly long line of slow starts for Doan. Through 13 games, Doan has just one goal and four points after tallying 28 times in 2015-16. For his part Doan doesn’t believe the early season difficulties will be a portend of things to come, saying:  “Not in my mind, it doesn’t. That really hasn’t been something that I’ve even thought too much about. I’m more than capable of being better than I’ve been.” His coach, Dave Tippett agrees: “He’s probably a little like our whole group: up and down a little bit. He just has high expectations for himself. I remember last November he was struggling a little bit and then he scored 28 goals. Some guys just have that make-up where they need to get up and going and it takes a little while.” Morgan points out Doan is seeing less ice time this season, averaging almost two minutes less per game, and that might play a part in the captain’s lack of production.
  • After addressing their goaltending situation in the offseason and adding veteran winger Troy Brouwer as a free agent, the Calgary Flames were expected to contend for a playoff spot this year. However a sluggish start suggests the team lacks an identity and needs to find theirs quickly if they want to avoid postseason elimination, writes Eric Francis of Sportsnet. First-year bench boss Glen Gulutzan believes the team is playing well at times but can’t find a way to win games: “We’re finding ways to lose. There are certain things that we’re doing well, but we’re finding ways to lose. We need somebody now to step up and find a way to win, and stop playing the victim.” Francis points to the Flames special teams as a culprit with the team’s penalty-killing unit ranking 29th in the NHL and the man-advantage failing to score a goal at home this season. Both played a role in the team’s latest loss, a 4 – 2 defeat at the hands of Dallas. Dallas’ Jamie Benn potted the go-ahead goal early in the third period while the Flames power play failed to convert a late advantage to tie the contest. It’s not too late for the Flames to find themselves but they’d better get it going soon before it’s too late.

Jacob Trouba Set To Make 2016-17 Season Debut

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According to head coach Paul Maurice, recently re-signed defenseman Jacob Trouba will make his 2016-17 season debut tonight against Colorado, tweets Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun. The Jets and the RFA blue liner settled on a two-year, bridge pact on Monday that comes with an AAV of $3MM. Trouba had asked for a trade out of Winnipeg last season but has since rescinded that request.

Of course one of the issues Trouba talked about during the stalemate was the fact he wanted to play on his natural, right side but with Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the depth chart above him, those opportunities had been few and far between with the Jets. Maurice did not state whether Trouba would see action on the right side or with whom he would play, saying only: “We’re going to send him out there with a right-handed stick.”

The coach also did not indicate who would be coming out of the lineup tonight to make room for Trouba though Wiebe suggested Paul Postma was the likeliest option. Postma has appeared in 12 games so far this season and has two points for the Jets.

Despite inking a new deal to remain in Winnipeg and pulling back his trade request, rumors linger that the team could still move him. Now under contract at what many might feel is a bargain price, teams interested in Trouba might be more inclined to meet the high asking price the Jets have placed on the young blue liner. During the 2011-12 campaign, Kyle Turris, who shares the same agent as Trouba, signed a short-term deal with the Coyotes only to be dealt days later to Ottawa. It’s possible the Jets could look to do the same with Trouba.

 

Central Division Snapshots: Trouba, Mitchell, Hudler, Dowling

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To this point, the only outcomes discussed in the Winnipeg/Jacob Trouba stalemate have involved either the player caving in and signing a new contract to remain with the Jets or a trade sending the RFA defenseman elsewhere. But as Rory Bolyen of Sportsnet writes, there is a possibility Trouba re-signs with the team as a way to help facilitate a trade down the road.

Bolyen references comments made by Nick Kypreos and Elliotte Friedman made yesterday on the Saturday’s Headlines segment. Kypreos states the a signed Trouba may have more value on the trade market than he does currently.

“Kurt Overhardt (Trouba’s agent) met with Kevin Cheveldayoff in Detroit. The feeling is it’s still pretty quiet on that front, but Winnipeg would love to sign this guy. And sign him to that same contract we’ve seen other defensemen get. The perception out there right now is that there is a deal, like a Morgan Rielly deal, for $5 million, six years.

“And that would still come with the thought that it could be tradable if in fact he signs this and starts playing again, that they could be in a position where teams would love the known certainty of Jacob Trouba for the next six years and it would be tradable if that’s the direction they wanted to go.”

Friedman added that Overhardt went through a similar situation with another client, Kyle Turris.

“Just so you know, Kyle Turris when he went through the situation, he signed on November 22, he was traded on December 17,”

Sitting out the season likely would do little to enhance Trouba’s value so getting back on the ice should be a priority. Obviously he would sacrifice the only leverage he possesses as Winnipeg could simply choose to hang onto the young blue liner instead of moving him. But perhaps it would be best for both sides if Trouba signs a new deal and gets back to playing while the Jets continue to pursue a trade to their liking.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • The Colorado Avalanche placed John Mitchell on waivers Friday and the veteran pivot, who is in his ninth NHL season, cleared Saturday. Mitchell, who has been held scoreless in five appearances this season, is in his fifth season with Colorado. He has reached double-figures in goals and tallied at least 20 points in each of his first four campaigns with the Avalanche. With only a projected $1.7MM in available cap space, the move was made in order to provide additional cap flexibility for GM Joe Sakic, as Mike Chambers of The Denver Post writes. The club can now send Mitchell down to their AHL affiliate in San Antonio at any point over the next 30 days to open up a spot on the roster for a younger player and/or to clear an additional $950K in salary cap space. Mitchell is in the last season of a three-year deal worth $5.4MM. He is making $1.9MM in actual salary.
  • According to Mark Stepneski, who covers the Stars for the team’s official website, Dallas has placed Jiri Hudler on injured reserve due to an undisclosed illness and recalled forward Justin Dowling from Texas of the AHL. Hudler was signed this summer to provide secondary scoring but the 12-year veteran has played in just four games and has so far failed to record a point. Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News adds that since Dowling played both Friday and Saturday in California for the Texas Stars, head coach Lindy Ruff may elect to dress seven defensemen for tonight’s game. According to Ruff (via Heika), the team has no idea what specifically has afflicted Hudler as tests have revealed nothing.

 

Connor McDavid’s Next Contract

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He may be eight months away from being able to sign it, and 20 months before it takes effect, but Connor McDavid’s second contract is already a topic of conversation in the hockey world.

Despite being only 19-years-old and 55 games into his NHL career, McDavid is already a top-five player in the NHL. Of course, he’s scored 60 points in those 55 games, and is currently sitting tied for second in NHL scoring. He’s also the youngest captain in NHL history and the unquestioned face of the Oilers franchise.

McDavid is currently in the second year of his three-year entry-level contract. Including bonuses, McDavid can make $3.775MM per season. He’s eligible to negotiate and sign a contract extension on July 1, 2017. The longest term possible is eight years, something that’s a given for the Oilers but perhaps a point of worry for the McDavid camp. On Tuesday night’s Insider Trading, TSN and ESPN insider Pierre Lebrun floated the idea that the potential lockout in 2020 or 2022 could affect the player agent’s willingness to sign through that. He followed that up on Wednesday morning on TSN radio in Vancouver, pointing to the past CBA’s effects on player contracts. In 2005, there was a 24% salary rollback to all players; in 2013 they added cap recapture penalties to so-called “cheat deals” like Shea Weber’s. While Lebrun isn’t saying McDavid doesn’t want to sign an eight-year extension in Edmonton, he does point out the possibility of a four-year deal because “there’s some concern that when the CBA ends, maybe they need to protect themselves because the rules may change on existing contracts.”

Numbers-wise, McDavid is a very likely candidate to become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Chris Johnston discussed McDavid on Tuesday night’s Sportsnet Hockey Central, opining that he “doesn’t see any” situation where McDavid doesn’t become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Currently, Blackhawks forwards Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane’s $10.5MM cap hits are the highest in the NHL. Kings captain Anze Kopitar is the only other player making $10MM or more.

Of course, the Oilers could luck out if McDavid is as superstitious as the previous “next one” Sidney Crosby. Following his standard entry-level contract, Crosby has signed two separate contracts with an AAV of $8.7MM, which of course is the same as his number. Getting McDavid signed at under $10MM per season would be a major win for the Oilers and allow them to build a stronger team around him. Both sides can look no further than the Blackhawks struggles to keep their team together with Toews and Kane accounting for a combined $21MM against the cap.

Including LTIR-relief from former captain Andrew Ference (career-ending hip surgery), the Oilers are around $5MM below the cap. Things will change in the summer, when Leon Draisaitl is an RFA. Look for depth defenseman Mark Fayne to bought out or traded with salary retained to clear most of his $3.625MM cap hit, and perhaps a trade involving a bigger salaried player. McDavid and Darnell Nurse finish their entry-level contracts in 2018, and then Jesse Puljujärvi in 2019 (presuming he stays in the NHL this year and doesn’t slide.

While negotiations cannot begin until July, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli and his management team are already having internal discussions about the contract, and so are McDavid’s agents, Jeff Jackson and Bobby Orr. Expect a similar timeline to fellow exceptional status recipient and first-overall pick Aaron Ekblad signing his extension with Florida; the two sides agreed in principle to a new deal early in the morning of July 1st.

Johnston was dead-on when he called extending McDavid the “biggest decision the Oilers are going to have for the next decade.”

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