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Tampa Bay Lightning Deadline, Expansion Notes

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have had a ton of success the past few seasons, winning at least 46 games three straight seasons and making a Stanley Cup final in 2015. Today, they find themselves in last place in the Atlantic division and one point out of the bottom of the conference. They’re 2-7-1 in their last 10, and haven’t been able to find any consistency at either end of the ice.

When looking at the rest of their season, it’s not all bad. Despite being close to the bottom of the conference, they’re also just four points back of the Maple Leafs for the last wildcard spot (though they’ve played 48 games, four more than the Leafs). They should get Steven Stamkos back at some point, though depending on when he returns (likely mid-March) it may be too late.

When looking at their roster, they have very few expiring deals to sell off at the deadline. Ben Bishop would be a big chip, though most Cup contenders already have a #1 installed firmly in net. He’s also struggled through inconsistency and injury this season, making him a hard player to value for the back half of the season. Brian Boyle is a UFA this summer, and while he’s have a nice season he likely isn’t the 20 goal scorer he once was for New York. He’d be attractive to some teams to plug into a bottom-six, but wouldn’t bring much back.

The biggest problem for the Lightning though may be the upcoming expansion draft, where they will have a tough time protecting their current assets up front.  Since Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula all have no-movement clauses and come with automatic protection, the team has just four forward spots left to protect.

Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin are locks to be protected, meaning there are two slots left for the crop of forwards including Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Vladislav Namestnikov among others (many, many others). Losing one of those players for nothing would be a questionable move, meaning GM Steve Yzerman may be busy in the next month positioning his team better for the draft.

Adding a defenseman is a big need for the Bolts, and if they could find one that is exempt from the draft (meaning a young, first or second year player) it would be advantageous. Johnson could likely have fetched a huge price two years ago coming off his 29-goal, 72 point 2014-15, but after the struggles last year and a perceived step backwards defensively it may be selling low on him. He’s an RFA again this summer meaning he’ll be looking for a big-money deal, but perhaps the team could get a better price after letting him play out the rest of the regular season and (hopefully) topping the 50 point mark once again.

Killorn just signed a new deal this summer that locked him up for seven years, which may scare some teams off after a sluggish first half. Palat, though also not having a huge year probably has a bigger upside than Killorn and is two years younger. Though he’s also up for a new deal this summer as an RFA, the Lightning would likely need a big offer to pry him away.

If the team still thinks that it can compete in the Eastern Conference playoffs once Stamkos is back, perhaps they don’t need to sell one of their forwards for help down the line but with the draft looming and this season slipping away they may end up shipping out a well-known name.

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5 Key Stories: 1/16/2017 – 1/22/2017

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As millions of American anxiously await to find out who will represent their respective conferences in Super Bowl LI, don’t forget to check in on all of the recent news and rumors involving the NFL on our sister site, Pro Football Rumors.

The action is starting to pick up in the NHL, though it’s still relatively quiet compared to what we expect next month. Here is a roundup of the five key stories from the week ending on 1/22/2017.

Islanders Dismiss Capuano – Sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, the New York Islanders relieved head coach Jack Capuano of his duties this week and inserted AGM Doug Weight into the position on an interim basis. Capuano spent parts of seven campaigns behind the Islanders bench and guided the club to the second-round of the playoffs for the first time in more than two decades just last season.

Claude Julien’s Job in Jeopardy? – With rumors circulating as to the job security of longtime bench boss Claude Julien, the Boston Bruins called a press conference to address the situation. While nothing definitive came out of it, the belief is that Julien will maintain his position at least through the season, barring a major late-season collapse.

Clarke MacArthur Will Not Play This Season – Veteran winger Clarke MacArthur, who has yet to appear in a game this season after suffering a concussion during training camp, has not progressed enough in his recovery and a return has been ruled out by Ottawa team doctors. This will represent what is essentially a second consecutive lost season for MacArthur, who only suited up for four contests a year ago due to yet another concussion. It’s also quite possible this is the end of the line for the 10-year veteran.

Hawks Interested In Tatar, Nyquist – In search of a top-six winger to slot next to Jonathan Toews, the Chicago Blackhawks have reportedly expressed interest in Detroit forwards Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar. The report contradicts the notion that the club would restrict its pursuit to rentals or players on ELC’s. The Hawks have a number of rather large commitments already on their books for 2017-18 but apparently they would still be willing to take on a player with control beyond the current campaign. Nyquist has two seasons left on his deal with an AAV of $4.75MM while Tatar will be a RFA this summer and likely in position for a raise on his $2.75MM cap charge.

Winnipeg Recalls Ondrej Pavelec – Desperate for consistently competent play between the pipes, the Winnipeg Jets recalled deposed started Ondrej Pavelec from the Manitoba Moose of the AHL. The Jets decided had waived the veteran net minder just prior to the beginning of the campaign and assigned him to the minors when he went unclaimed. Now the team is hopeful he can provide the Jets with quality play and bolster their pursuit of a playoff berth.

Restricted 2017: Checking In On The Upcoming RFA Class

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As the NHL continues to skew towards younger and younger talent with players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews making an immediate impact, the restricted free agent classes become more and more important.

Last year we saw an impressive group, headlined by the dynamic duo in Calgary Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, Tampa’s new sniper Nikita Kucherov and a handful of excellent defensemen like Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Trouba.

While teams have started to lock up their young talent before they even become restricted free agents – like Aaron Ekblad in Florida who signed a $60MM deal just months after his 20th birthday – this year looks like it will be one of the biggest and most expensive RFA crops ever. Glen Miller took a look back in September at this year’s crop in an excellent series of articles that really should be consumed before reading any further (parts one, two, three, four, five and six), but let’s now check in on the group and how they’re fairing this season. Well list just a few of the highlights, as the group is almost endless.

Leon Draisaitl (EDM) – 47 GP / 17 G / 23 A / 40 P

You can’t start this list without mentioning Draisaitl, who will head to restricted free agency for the first time after what looks like a 30+ goal, 70+ point season. Skating alongside McDavid for much of the year, Draisaitl is currently tied for 18th in league scoring and leads the RFA group. He won’t turn 22 until after the 2017-18 season begins, and is an important player for the Edmonton Oilers to lock up long term. Expect the team to shell out big money to buy into a few free agent years this summer.

Mikael Granlund (MIN) – 44 GP / 10 G / 27 A / 37 P

Often forgotten about across much of the league because of the relative gag-order on any Minnesota Wild news, Granlund is having an exceptional season. Playing almost 20 minutes a night and on pace to shatter his previous career high in points, the Finnish forward will get a huge deal this summer. Unlike Draisaitl, Granlund is 24 and has already been through the RFA process before, signing a two-year $6MM deal before last season. With three solid seasons and now one spectacular one, he’ll likely earn something closer to $7MM (AAV) if signed long-term.

Justin Schultz (PIT) – 44 GP / 7 G / 23 A / 30 P

Schultz is such an interesting case, because of the breakout he’s experiencing this year. With Kris Letang on the shelf for much of the season, Schultz has blossomed in Pittsburgh to the player most teams expected when he signed out of college. He’s 26 now, and will turn 27 just days after free agency opens, but will likely fetch a hefty price as an RFA. After not even receiving a qualifying offer last year, has he done enough to prove that a big-money deal is worth it?

Robin Lehner (BUF) – 29 GP / .920 SV% / 2.54 GAA

The best RFA goaltender this year is one who just blew up at his coach after getting pulled and has generally been inconsistent for the Sabres since they traded a first-round pick for him in 2015. He has all the talent in the world to be a number one goaltender in this league, but with Buffalo floundering again near the bottom of the league will he be able to put it all together and lead them back to the playoffs? He’s 25-years old now and has 136 games under his belt with an above-average .916 save percentage. If Buffalo can ice any healthy defensemen, perhaps they’d be able to finish in the top half of the league for a change.

Friedman’s Latest: Strome, Shattenkirk, Sharp, Filppula

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Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet published this week’s “30 Thoughts” column this morning and like always, it’s worth the read in its entirety. Of course the scribe touches on several trade-related topics as the calendar closes to within six weeks of the deadline. Here’s a rundown of some of the highlights from the column.

  • An NHL executive evidently felt the Islanders were recently nearing a trade of Ryan Strome but the firing of Jack Capuano may have postponed the move. In the opinion of Friedman, Isles GM Garth Snow may elect to see how Strome responds to the coaching change before moving on from their 2011 first-round draft choice. Strome, who has only 14 points in 39 games this season, has struggled in each of the last two campaigns but did tally 50 points in 2014-15 as a 21-year-old sophomore. Prior to the season, Strome inked a two-year bridge deal with an AAV of $2.5MM. Given his potential and the additional year on his contract at an affordable rate, there would likely be a number of teams in the league with genuine interest in the 23-year-old forward, should the Islanders put him on the market.
  • St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who is in the final year of his pact with the team, has frequently been mentioned in trade rumors going back to the 2016 draft. It’s thought the native of New Rochelle, New York, who grew up a New York Rangers fan, would ultimately choose to sign with a club on the east coast this summer as a free agent, with the Blue Shirts emerging as early favorites in that scenario. Also, it’s been reported that Shattenkirk derailed a potential offseason trade to Edmonton due to his reluctance to sign an extension with the Oilers, but Friedman wonders if he would consider a deadline deal to a playoff team in which he would see his role, and therefore potentially his free agent value, increase. Friedman mentions the Oilers and perhaps the Maple Leafs as teams who might pursue a player of Shattenkirk’s ilk as a rental to boost their postseason chances. The suggestion makes sense for the Blues as well, since the organization has fellow right-handed blue liners Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo on hand to pick up the slack. St. Louis was also stung losing veterans David Backes and Troy Brouwer for nothing as free agents this past summer and may be unwilling to do the same in the case of Shattenkirk. Trading the skilled defender would allow them to add some young talent to the system while opening up additional salary cap space in the event they wish to chase forward reinforcements at the deadline.
  • With Chicago reportedly searching for a top-six winger to slot next to star center Jonathan Toews, Friedman wonders whether the club will seek a reunion with Patrick Sharp. Sharp spent nine-plus seasons with the Hawks and was part of three Stanley Cup championship teams. His familiarity with the organization would seem to appeal to Chicago GM Stan Bowman as he searches the market for scoring depth. Additionally, Sharp is in the last year of his contract and qualifies as a pure rental; something the Blackhawks would likely value given their tight salary cap situation. Of course Sharp’s $5.9MM cap charge complicates matters for Chicago, as the club is currently slated to only have roughly $3.3MM in space at the deadline. It’s conceivable, however, that Dallas would be willing to retain enough salary to make the finances work, assuming the Blackhawks made it worthwhile to do so. Sharp’s season has been marred by concussion problems and he has just four goals on the season, though two came last night in Dallas’ wild 7 – 6 win over the New York Rangers. The Blackhawks could also entertain other rental options, such as Thomas Vanek of Detroit, who has 30 points in 33 games for Detroit and carries a cap charge of just $2.6MM.
  • One unfortunate consequence of team success in the NHL is having to navigate through the resulting salary cap challenges as an organization’s younger contributors advance into free agency. Tampa Bay, who has appeared in the Eastern Conference Final in each of the past two seasons, is set to encounter that very problem this summer. Projected to have only about $12MM in cap space and with only 14 players under contract for next season, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is going to have his work cut out for him as he attempts to find common ground on new arrangements with pending RFA’s Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson. If the team has any hope of extending the trio, they will inevitably have to trade a high-salaried veteran to create the necessary salary cap flexibility. Friedman believes the Lightning might be best served by moving veteran forward Valtteri Filppula and his $5MM cap charge. Filppula, who has a partial NTC, might be appealing to other teams given his ability to slot in on the wing or at center. The veteran Finn has 29 points in 44 games for Tampa Bay and could provide versatility to any number of teams with the requisite cap space to add the 6-foot, 196-pound forward. Unless Tampa Bay is well out of the playoff chase by the deadline, it’s likely the team will hang onto Filppula through the end of the season and look to move him this summer when there may be more interested suitors.

Minor Transactions: 1/11/2017

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There has been a flurry of roster transactions so far today with several players recalled from or reassigned to the minor leagues. We’ll keep track of those moves in this post:

  • According to Eric Stephens of The Orange County Register, the Anaheim Ducks recalled forward Stefan Noesen and blue liner Shea Theodore from the San Diego Gulls of the AHL. In a corresponding move, defenseman Brandon Montour was reassigned to the Gulls. Montour made his NHL debut after initially being recalled on December 28th though he failed to register a point in five appearances. Noesen has one goal on the campaign in seven games while Theodore has a goal and five assists in 21 contests this season for Anaheim.
  • Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News tweeted this morning that Jamie Oleksiak is dealing with a hand injury and will likely be “out for a bit.” He goes on to say that fellow defenseman Stephen Johns will take Oleksiak’s spot in the lineup for tomorrow’s game at home against Detroit. With eight defensemen on the roster – Patrik Nemeth is currently playing for the AHL Texas Stars on a conditioning assignment though remains on Dallas’ official roster – no call-up is expected to be made. In a later tweet, Heika adds that with Texas playing at home, Stars head coach Lindy Ruff would easily be able to bring Nemeth back from his assignment if necessary.
  • After adding forward Derek Grant via waiver claim from Buffalo today, the Nashville Predators reassigned fellow forward Frederick Gaudreau to Milwaukee of the AHL, according to The Tennessean’s Adam Vingan. The 23-year-old rookie has made nine appearances for Nashville this season, the first NHL action of Gaudreau’s career, and has tallied a single assist. In 24 contests with the Milwaukee Admirals, Gaudreau has netted five goals and 14 points. Vingan speculated that Gaudreau’s reassignment might indicate that either James Neal or Colin Wilson could be ready to return to the lineup. Neal was placed on IR retroactive to 1/3 and is currently eligible to be activated. Wilson last played on 1/6.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have recalled blue liner David Warsofsky from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton while reassigning net minder Tristan Jarry to the Baby Pens. Jason Mackey, who covers the club for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, reported on the moves and added that with Jarry back to the minors, Matt Murray should be ready to at least serve as Marc-Andre Fleury’s back-up for tonight’s game against Washington.
  • Defenseman Slater Koekkoek and goalie Kristers Gudlevskis were both returned to the AHL Syracuse Crunch, Tampa Bay’s top minor league affiliate, tweets Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. Koekkoek’s assignment might seem odd on the surface as the blue liner had appeared in 12 of the last 13 Lightning games. But, as Smith points out, Koekkoek does not need to clear waivers to be sent to the minors while fellow defenders Luke Witkowski and Nikita Nesterov do.
  • The Washington Capitals announced they have sent forwards Paul Carey and Liam O’Brien to Hershey of the AHL, according to the team’s official Twitter account. The assignments leave the team with just 12 forwards on the active roster, a fact that suggests T.J. Oshie will be back in the Caps lineup tonight. That was later confirmed by Capitals head coach Barry Trotz.
  • Two days after sending the fourth overall selection in the June entry draft, Jesse Puljujarvi, to Bakersfield the Edmonton Oilers have assigned fellow forward Anton Lander to the same club. Called up from the Condors was forward Jujhar Khaira, who has eight goals and 18 points in 24 AHL games this season.

Anaheim Ducks Extend Dustin Tokarski

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Another goaltender has been extended early, as the Anaheim Ducks have extended Dustin Tokarski another year on a two-way deal. The team needed a goaltender to expose in the upcoming expansion draft or risk losing John Gibson.

Tokarski for his part hasn’t actually done much to deserve the extension, as he currently has a .889 save percentage in the AHL in 16 games. The team acquired Tokarski from Montreal in the middle of last season for prospect Max Friberg when Gibson was injured. He got into one game for the team earlier this season in relief.

This is the second backup or minor league goaltender, including Al Montoya the other day, that has received an extension well before it was necessary to do so. This is likely teams giving themselves some certainty heading into the unknown of the expansion draft. Every team needs to expose at least one goaltender that is signed through the 2017-18 season (or is an RFA this summer). Both Jonathan Bernier and Matt Hackett in Anaheim are free agents this summer.

Minnesota and Philadelphia are in similar situations, with Darcy Kuemper, Alex Stalock, Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth all becoming unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. Expect them to make similar moves in the next few months to make sure that Devan Dubnyk and Anthony Stolarz can be protected.

Wednesday’s Waiver Wire Roundup

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston provides the latest updates on what has proven to be a busy day on the NHL’s waiver wire.

  • The Vancouver Canucks have claimed forward Reid Boucher off of waivers from New Jersey. Boucher recently returned to the Devils organization, albeit for only a short time, after they reclaimed the winger off of waivers from Nashville over the weekend. The Predators had earlier acquired the 23-year-old via waivers from New Jersey. All told, Boucher has one goal and three points in 12 appearances this season. It’s clear there is still much interest around the league in the former fourth-round draft pick and based on last season’s eight-goal, 19-point output in 39 games, it’s easy to see why. Vancouver currently ranks 23rd in the NHL in scoring and has been in the market for a scoring-line winger since this past summer. Boucher represents a low-cost, low-risk option to fill that need.
  • Ty Rattie is headed to Carolina after the Hurricanes were awarded their claim on the 23-year-old winger. Rattie was placed on waivers yesterday by St. Louis, the team that drafted the 6-foot, 195-pound forward in the second-round of the 2001 entry draft. Carolina ranks 19th in scoring this season and has just two players who have scored more than eight goals. The skilled Rattie has an excellent track record of offensive production at both the junior and minor league levels. He netted 105 goals over his final two junior campaigns in 131 games and has registered 69 goals and 137 points in 196 AHL games in the Blues organization. After appearing in just four NHL games with St. Louis this season, Rattie should be given a better opportunity in Carolina to show what he can do.
  • Meanwhile, the Boston Bruins have placed veteran goaltender Anton Khudobin on waivers this afternoon. Khudobin has struggled between the pipes in his second stint with the organization, winning just one of seven starts and posting a GAA above three. The net minder, now in his eighth NHL season, is in the first season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $1.2MM. If he clears waivers and is sent down to Providence of the AHL, Khudobin would still account for $250K against the Bruins cap. It’s possible another team in need of goaltending depth takes a chance on the 30-year-old back-up and if he is claimed the Bruins will be in need of a goalie with enough NHL playing experience to expose in next June’s expansion draft. Likewise, other club’s could have interest in Khudobin for the same reason if they don’t currently have a second goalie that meets that requirement under contract for next season. Should Khudobin be claimed or assigned to the minors after clearing waivers, the Bruins will likely recall Zane McIntyre to serve as the team’s back-up behind Tuukka Rask.
  • Joining Khudobin on waivers is four-year veteran left wing Matt Nieto. The 24-year-old has struggled to put up points this season, posting just two assists in 16 games this season for San Jose. However, Nieto scored 10 goals in each of his first two NHL campaigns and could provide another team with solid production in a bottom-six role should he be claimed. He will be a RFA next summer after earning $735K on a one-year deal and might represent a low-cost, low-risk acquisition for a club looking to add forward depth.

Waiver Claims: Burmistrov, Boucher

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Elliotte Friedman reports that the Arizona Coyotes have claimed Alexander Burmistrov from the Winnipeg Jets. The former eighth-overall pick hasn’t found his footing in Winnipeg (or Atlanta) since his draft, and will now open a new chapter.

Reid Boucher, the other player currently on waivers, is heading back to New Jersey after a short stint in Nashville. Boucher played just three games with the Predators, scoring one goal.

Burmistrov has long been expected to turn into a top-six forward, but has never turned into it. After two fairly successful seasons in the KHL, he returned to North America last year and only registered 21 points, despite playing in 81 games. Obviously, with his upside, the Coyotes will gladly take a risk on the 25-year old. Their team isn’t destined for anything big this season, and Burmistrov is still an RFA this summer. If he can find success in the desert, he could be a nice addition to that team.

For Boucher, he’ll head back to the only other franchise he’s ever known after a month away. The former fourth-round pick has had much success during his time in the Devils organization, and even scored 19 points in just 39 games last year for the Devils.

Extension Candidates: 2017 Restricted Free Agents

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After Artemi Panarin signed a two-year extension earlier today that will pay him $6MM per season and take him right up to unrestricted free agency, the RFA pool for this summer got a little bit smaller. Other extensions that have already been signed include Aaron Ekblad (Eight years, $60MM), Jake Allen (Four years, $17.4MM) and Victor Hedman (Eight years, $63MM).

Even though these big names are already locked up long-term, there are a ton of other restricted free agents that will be negotiating extensions between now and July 1st. Here are a few big names who become RFAs this summer.

Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton: The former third-overall pick who once scored 192 points in 29 German junior-league games, has broken out this season with 31 points in 36 games. Already coming off a 50 point season, this 70 point pace puts him in elite territory up front.  Only 21 years old, the Oilers will be looking to lock him up long-term to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid well into their peak years.

Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal: Another third-overall pick who put up a 50+ point season a year ago, Galchenyuk was off to a brilliant start before going down with injury early this month. Because he’ll be out for another month at least, Galchenyuk won’t rush into a contract that may not be representative of his development. This one might head into the summer, but if he comes back strong perhaps the two sides can come together before what looks like a long playoff run.

David Pastrnak, Boston: Not quite the same situation faces Pastrnak, who before this year showed promise but hadn’t played a full season in the NHL. With 26 points already he’s about to set his career-high and has a chance at a 40-goal season.  Boston has a lot of money already tied up long-term in their forward group, with David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes and Brad Marchand all under contract through at least 2020-21. They may not be able to afford buying out UFA years this summer, meaning a one or two year pact is more likely.

Snapshots: Kings, Hunlack, Bogosian

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In his latest column, ESPN Insider Pierre LeBrun takes a look at the Los Angeles Kings roster and suggest strategies for the upcoming expansion draft. LeBrun boils the issue down to two names: Brayden McNabb and Dustin Brown. If the team wishes to protect McNabb, they’ll have to go the “eight skaters” option, since Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez will undoubtedly need protection. If they do, they put at risk some of their big names up front, including former captain Dustin Brown. While Brown is coming off the worst year of his career, he’s turned it around a bit this season and may be an interesting option for the Vegas team to bring in a veteran forward who could immediately become their first captain.

On the other hand, if they choose to leave McNabb exposed he may not necessarily be the selection since he only has one year remaining before becoming a highly sought after free agent in 2018. At 27, the shutdown defender would have teams lining up to bring him into the fold, and he’ll be looking for a substantial raise from the $1.8MM he’ll make next season.  For the Kings, just like every other team, the expansion draft will be a game of chicken with George McPhee and the Vegas front office.

  • In Toronto, a nickname has surfaced for the veteran third pairing of Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak; “Hunlack”, as many fans refer to the duo has been chided incessantly by the analytics community for their constant struggle with possession metrics. While the two rank terribly in terms of Corsi and Fenwick, head coach Mike Babcock dismisses the notion that they’re unplayable. When asked by Chris Johnston of Sportsnet what makes up a good game for them, Babcock replied “There’s a bunch of ways to look at the game. So Corsi’s one, maybe. But who turns the video on and rewinds to see if those shots actually hit the net or not? Because our math and theirs don’t add up. So what I do is I say: ’Did the puck go in or did they get scoring chances against?'” While the metrics available to the public don’t necessarily share Babcock’s assesment of the pairing, he does seem to imply that the Maple Leafs’ internal numbers don’t match up exactly.  Perhaps even though ’Hunlack’ doesn’t generate shots like Toronto’s other pairings, they can be effective in other ways – or maybe it’s just talking them up for the trade deadline.
  • For Buffalo, their season-long struggle with injuries is starting to see an end. After Jack Eichel has rejoined the team and shown why he shouldn’t be forgotten as last season’s second-overall pick, the team got more good news today. Zach Bogosian, out since the beginning of November with a knee injury, took full part in today’s practice and should be back before long. Now they just have to figure out a way to motivate Zemgus Girgensons and Evander Kane, both of whom will skate on the fourth line tonight against the Los Angeles Kings.

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