Salary Cap Deep Dive

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

September 9, 2017 at 8:42 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $67,661,666 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Patrik Laine (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Kyle Connor (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Nikolaj Ehlers (One year remaining, $894K)
D Josh Morrissey (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Laine: $2.65MM
Ehlers: $850K
Connor: $850K
Morrissey: $500K

Total: $4.85MM

The future looks bright for the Jets, especially with Laine, who is constantly overshadowed by Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews. Laine, who was taken second-overall in last year’s draft, put up phenomenal numbers that make Jets fans believe again in their team. He put up 36 goals in his rookie campaign and added 28 assists for a 64-point season. He should only get better and become the cornerstone of the franchise in the future. He should be joined by Ehlers, who also had a breakout year last year. The 2014 first-round pick had 15 goals in his rookie year, but added to that this past year, putting up 25 goals and 39 assists for 64 points.

The team also has high hopes for Connor to make the team and find himself a full-time role this year. The team’s 2015 first-round pick, put up big numbers a couple years ago at the University of Michigan two years ago, then scored 25 goals with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose and still managed to get 20 games in with the Jets, where he scored two goals and three assists. The team believes he has a good shot to end up on one of the back two lines. Morrissey, the team’s first-round pick back in 2013, found a full-time role with the Jets last year as he put up six goals and 14 assists. He is currently slated to start on the Jets’ third-line defense.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Toby Enstrom ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Bryan Little ($4.7MM, UFA)
D Jacob Trouba ($2.81MM, RFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($2.25MM, RFA)
F Shawn Matthias ($2.13MM, UFA)
G Michael Hutchinson ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Adam Lowry ($1.13MM, RFA)
F Joel Armia ($925K, RFA)
F Marko Dano ($850K, RFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($700K, RFA)
F Matt Hendricks ($700K, UFA)
F Michael Sgarbossa ($650K, RFA)

That’s a long list, but most of the players are restricted free agents and should easily be retained. However, the team will have to make some decisions on some key veterans, including Little, who many feel is an underrated forward. The 29-year-old has been with the franchise from the start of his career when they were the Atlanta Thrashers and has scored 184 goals for the franchise. With the team’s large number of young forwards, might they move on from Little in a year? Injuries have plagued little over the past two years as he’s missed 48 games. His 21 goals last year were solid, but he will need to prove his value this year if he wants another long-term deal. Another potential unrestricted free agent would be Enstrom, who will be 33 next year and the team will have to decide whether to keep the veteran blueliner. His offensive numbers dropped into the teens in the last couple of years. Mattias and Hendricks are expendable fill-ins, but valuable veterans to hold that roster together.

The team will be looking to several of their restricted free agent as key players in the future. The team will be looking at Trouba to have a big season this year. The 23-year-old defenseman had a career-high 33 points a year ago and he did that in only 60 games, so many feel he may take his game up a notch this year if he can avoid injuries. Despite Hellebuyck’s down year as they attempted to hand him the starting goaltender job, the team still looks at him as a potential starter that just wasn’t ready to take their reigns last year. His 2.89 GAA in 56 games didn’t get the job done. With Mason coming in, Hellebuyck will have more time to develop as a backup.

The team will be looking for Lowry to continue to develop as well. Lowry had 15 goals last year and the 24-year-old is expected to center the team’s third line. Armia also has bigger expectations this year after putting up 10 goals a year ago. He could also end up as a wing next to Lowry on that third line. Dano could also pick up a full-time role with the Jets this year. The former 2013 first-rounder played 38 games for Winnipeg last year, putting up four goals and seven assists.

Two Years Remaining

F Blake Wheeler ($5.6MM, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Steve Mason ($4.1MM, UFA)
D Ben Chiarot ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Andrew Copp ($1MM, RFA)

The team’s main focus will be determining which of these veteran players will they want to bring back. Wheeler, who is 31 years of age, will be 33 years old, but he’s been amazingly consistent for Winnipeg over the last four years, scoring no less than 26 goals in that span. His success over the next two years will be the determining factor if they keep him. Granted, Mason hasn’t played a game for the Jets yet, but it’s more than likely that the Jets will move on from the veteran goaltender. He was signed to provide a stop-gap for Hellebuyck or other young goaltenders to move up in the system. As for Myers, again, the team will look to see how he plays. Considered to be one of their top defenders, he went down with a lower body injury after playing in just 11 games and now is expected to man the team’s second defensive line. At 27, he still has time to prove his value to the franchise.

Three Years Remaining

D Dmitry Kulikov ($4.33MM, UFA)

One of the most criticized signings was this summer when the Jets went out and inked Kulikov to a three-year, $13MM deal. Once considered to be a top defensive prospect, Kulikov has failed to have a big season and really collapsed a year ago when he only was able to put up five points in 47 games. Yet, the Jets brought him in with the hope he could help fix the team’s defensive woes. He suffered a back injury in the preseason with Buffalo a year ago and could never get it going, missing chunks of games due to that injury all year. Now healthy, the Jets hope this gamble will pay off.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Dustin Byfuglien ($7.6MM through 2020-21)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM through 2023-24)
F Mathieu Perreault ($4.125MM through 2020-21)

The team has only three large, long-term contracts on the books and the team is thrilled they have Scheifele locked up for another seven years. Signed to an eight-year extension in July of 2016, Scheifele is a centerpiece for the Jets. The 24-year-old had a breakout season that year, scoring 29 goals in the 2015-16 season. He topped that number with 32 goals this past year and is poised for greater things and at his age, they can count on him for a long time.

Byfuglien is locked up for another four years. The bruising 6-foot-5 defender has put up big numbers over his career, including a 13 goal, 39 assists season a year ago. He will be 36 when his contract ends, but with him still performing at his prime, this also looks like it was a good signing. Perreault, on the other hand, has not worked out as well. Signed from Anaheim after an 18-goal season in 2014, he agreed to a three-year deal, putting up another 18 goals, but since then, has combined for 22 goals in the past two seasons. Nevertheless, the team locked him up to a new four-year, $16.5MM deal which starts this year despite his offensive struggles.

Buyouts

D Mark Stuart ($1.46MM in 2017-18; $583K in 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Scheifele
Worst Value: Perreault

Looking Ahead

The Jets have done a fantastic job putting together a powerful offense. When you combine players like Scheifele, Laine, Wheeler and Little to go with their young players, offense isn’t the problem. The team finished seventh in the NHL in goals scored, averaging 3.0 goals per game. Yet, despite all that scoring, the team still did not reach the playoffs, placing ninth in the Western Conference, seven points short of that final playoff berth. What kept them from advancing? The team’s lack of defense and their goaltending situation held them back. The team was fourth in the NHL in goals allowed as they allowed 3.11 goals per game. The team hopes with the improvement of their offense, the return of Myers from injury and the additions of Kulikov and Mason, the team should be able to push their way into the playoffs this year.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

September 9, 2017 at 11:45 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $63,272,262 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Chris Bigras (One year remaining, $843K)
F J.T. Compher (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Tyson Jost (Three years remaining, $885K)
D Andrei Mironov (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (Two years remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Compher: $75K
Jost: $663K
Rantanen: $850K

Total: $1.588MM

Rantanen’s first full season was a bumpy one but he still projects as a top forward at the very least for the foreseeable future. Depending on how he fares in his sophomore campaign, it will be interesting to see if the team ponders signing him to an early extension, particularly with the recent inflation of RFA contracts we’ve seen this summer. Jost was lured away from North Dakota late in the season and they didn’t do that to turn around and play him in the AHL this year. They expect he’ll be a top-two center before too long and if he gets to that level within the next three years, his second deal will be a significant one. Compher spent the bulk of last year in the minors and should slide into a regular role for 2017-18. He’s more of a middle-six option and his next contract shouldn’t be anywhere as big of a jump as the other two.

With their complete lack of depth on the back end, quite a few rookies will be given the opportunity to play big minutes pretty quickly. Mironov was signed out of the KHL and has a European Assignment clause in his contract so he figures to get a long look at training camp. Bigras spent quite a bit of time with Colorado in his rookie season but none last year. As he gets set to finish his ELC, this will be a critical year for him – can he earn a bigger second deal or will he be looking at a one-year deal at potentially a lower NHL salary (with a higher AHL guarantee)?

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Jonathan Bernier ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($750K, UFA)
F Joe Colborne ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Blake Comeau ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Matt Nieto ($1MM, RFA)
F Nail Yakupov ($875K, RFA)

Comeau was one of many to have a rough year but after putting up better than 30 points the past two seasons, he could easily rebound. If that happens, he should be able to land a contract similar to his current one on the open market next summer. Colborne had an absolutely disastrous season to the point where he was a frequent scratch. Barring a notable turnaround, he’s setting himself up to be shopping for a PTO at this time next offseason. Yakupov has failed to live up to his first overall pedigree but the skill is there and he should have the opportunity to secure a more regular role. If that happens, he’ll set himself up for a nicer contract next summer but if not, he could be out of an NHL job entirely. Nieto should have a regular role in the bottom six but will need to produce more if he wants to garner any sort of raise a year from now.

Barberio joined Colorado via waivers midseason and he wound up with a bigger role than he had ever had before. Given their lack of depth at that position, that could very well happen again. If that is the case, Barberio could position himself for a big increase in salary if he can even satisfactorily hold down a top-four role during the season.

Bernier hasn’t been able to secure a true number one starting job between the pipes since the Kings dealt him back in 2013. Instead, he has been in platoons the last couple of years and is likely to be in one again. If that does indeed happen, a comparable deal to this one would be expected next summer as it’s doubtful that a team would be willing to give him a multi-year contract at number one money.

Two Years Remaining

F Sven Andrighetto ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Matt Duchene ($6MM, UFA)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Colin Wilson ($3.937MM, UFA)

By now, everyone knows all about the trade speculation with Duchene so let’s turn the focus away from that. From a contractual standpoint, Duchene didn’t live up to his salary as he put up his lowest production since 2011-12. If he can get back towards that 55-60 point mark, he’ll set himself up to earn a comparable contract to the one he’s one now when he hits the open market at the age of 28. If not, it will be an interesting free agency period for Duchene as he’s still young enough to command another long-term pact but if he’s more of a 40-45 point player these next couple of years, will a team be willing to give it to him?

Wilson was brought in on the cheap from Nashville this summer and he provides them with some needed depth in their middle six. However, his play has been hot-and-cold in recent years and if that continues, he’ll be hard pressed to find a contract close to $4MM on the open market. Andrighetto fit in well after joining the team at the trade deadline from Montreal. With their depth on the wing, he’ll have a chance to play a top-six role which will give him the potential to earn a much bigger contract in two years’ time.

Colorado’s decision to keep Varlamov over Calvin Pickard in expansion was controversial but it’s a sign that they still view him as a legitimate starter. He didn’t exactly play like one when healthy last year and if that happens again, he could become a legitimate buyout candidate next summer.

Three Years Remaining

D Tyson Barrie ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)

Soderberg lived up to his contract in his first year with the Avs, posting 51 points along the way. This past season, that total plummeted to 14. He’ll be given a chance to restore some value (right now the contract is bad enough that there’s pretty much no trade value) but if that doesn’t happen, he could also be someone who gets bought out in June.

Barrie has been speculated as someone that could be dealt with the team preferring a more balanced top pairing blueliner. Though his defensive zone issues are well known, he remains one of the more dangerous offensive threats league-wide from the back end so while his contract is pricey, he is living up to it for the most part.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM through 2020-21)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)

MacKinnon has yet to repeat his rookie performance but he has still been a somewhat productive top liner the last couple of years. He’s still just 22 and while he’s not a bargain now based on his production, there’s still a good chance that will change well before this deal expires. Landeskog was one of many who underachieved in 2016-17 but with four seasons of 50+ points under his belt already, it’s safe to expect that this was an outlier and not a sign of things to come. With that in mind, his contract is still a team-friendly one.

Johnson, when healthy, is a quality top-pairing blueliner but staying healthy has proven to be somewhat of a challenge in recent years. He remains a cornerstone part of their defense and is worth the contract when he is in the lineup.

Buyouts

D Francois Beauchemin ($4.5MM in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Nikita Zadorov

Best Value: Rantanen
Worst Value: Soderberg

Looking Ahead

Colorado projects to be well under the cap again this season by the time they get Zadorov signed and fill out the rest of their roster. That’s likely to be the case for a while yet as even though players like Rantanen will be due major raises before too long, they will have some pricey, underachieving veterans coming off their cap around the same time as well. They’re typically a budget team so the salary cap doesn’t project to be any sort of considerable obstacle any time soon unless they get in the market of taking on an injured contract in exchange for some other assets like Arizona has done in recent years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

September 4, 2017 at 4:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $72,858,591 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joel Eriksson Ek (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Luke Kunin (Three years remaining, $925K)

Eriksson Ek made the team out of training camp last season but was sent back before he triggered the first year of his entry-level deal. However, the team decided to go ahead and burn that first season later on and brought him back for the end of the year and playoffs. He likely slides in as a third line center to start the season. Kunin is only a year from being drafted 15th overall but the fact that Minnesota had him turn pro already would suggest that they plan to use him with the big club before too long.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Matt Cullen ($1MM, UFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($2.55MM, RFA)
F Mikko Koivu ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Kyle Quincey ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Chris Stewart ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($2MM, RFA)

Koivu is the most notable name of the group. He has been with the team since they drafted him back in 2001 and has been the captain for the past six seasons. He also has collected at least 48 points in each of the last four seasons and has provided them with some consistency at that end while being a responsible two-way player. However, he’ll be 35 when his next contract kicks in and given that he hasn’t reached the 20 goal mark since 2009-10, it stands to reason that he’ll be looking at a lower cap hit next season whether that’s with Minnesota or elsewhere.

Zucker took a bridge deal last summer and responded with almost as many points as the previous two seasons combined. He has set himself up to easily double that on his next contract if he hovers around the 45 point plateau once again. Stewart fit in well in a fourth line role last season but won’t likely command a big raise on the open market next summer. Cullen returns for another stint with the Wild and while he’ll likely play on the fourth line, his bonuses aren’t tied to points but rather playoff series.

Dumba has made steady progress since being drafted and has established himself as a top-four defenseman. Considering he’ll have arbitration rights in the offseason, he is positioned to earn a notable pay increase on his next deal. Quincey adds some depth with the trade of Marco Scandella to Buffalo but considering how he has bounced around in recent years, he probably won’t be able to command a much bigger contract a year from now.

Potential Bonuses

Cullen: $700K
Eriksson Ek: $213K
Kunin: $400K

Total: $1.313MM

Two Years Remaining

F Tyler Ennis ($4.6MM, UFA)
D Gustav Olofsson ($725K, RFA)
F Eric Staal ($3.5MM, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($650K, UFA)

Staal had a great first season with Minnesota, posting his highest point total (65) since 2011-12. This made him one of the top bargains in the 2016 free agency class and that should hold true again in 2017-18 even if his production dips somewhat. Ennis was acquired primarily to match salary more than anything else in the offseason trade with the Sabres. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy the last couple of years and hasn’t been productive when he is in the lineup. If he continues to struggle, his contract becomes a prime candidate to be bought out next summer.

Olofsson inked a one-way deal despite having only 15 games of NHL experience under his belt. He will likely slot in as a sixth or seventh blueliner which won’t give him much bargaining power when it comes to his next contract. Stalock was able to leverage the Expansion Draft into landing a couple of years from the Wild, including a one-way salary this season. If he can hold down the backup job for both seasons, he should be able to command a bit more on the open market a couple of years from now.

Three Years Remaining

F Charlie Coyle ($3.2MM, UFA)
F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($5.1875MM, UFA)

Unable to come to terms on a long-term deal, Granlund inked what basically amounted to a second bridge contract last month except this one takes him to unrestricted free agency. He’s coming off of a career year and if he can maintain that level of production, he’ll set himself up for a long-term, big money deal at that time. Coyle has seen his production improve every year and he is a quality top-six forward making well below market value. That will change on his next contract.

Spurgeon remains under the radar but there’s a case to be made that he is a top pairing blueliner. He logged over 24 minutes a game in the regular season and set a new career mark in points with 38. His contract raised a few eyebrows last summer but the Wild are getting solid value out of this deal.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Jonas Brodin ($4.17MM through 2020-21)
G Devan Dubnyk ($4.33MM through 2020-21)
F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM through 2021-22)
F Zach Parise ($7.538MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Suter ($7.538MM through 2024-25)

Parise’s deal (now illegal in the CBA) looked like a steep overpayment then and that hasn’t changed now. The 33-year-old is well past his point-per-game years and is more of a second liner at this point. With three years at $2MM or lower in salary at the end, there’s real potential for significant salary cap recapture at that time. Niederreiter has turned into a quality power forward that the Islanders envisioned when they drafted him fifth overall back in 2010. Considering he typically plays only 15 minutes a game, it could be argued that this is a bit high but he is very productive in that second line role and at 25 (as of later this week), there’s still room to improve which the Wild are likely banking on.

The same concerns exist with Suter when it comes to recapture down the road but the veteran blueliner is living up to his identical contract for now. He continues to be among the league leaders in minutes played every season and is still one of the better defensemen overall. There will come a time where that contract is a negative but that hasn’t happened yet.

Dubnyk has shown that his 2014-15 breakout campaign wasn’t just a fluke and as a result, the Wild have a high-end starter locked up at a well-below market price tag for several more years.

Buyouts

F Thomas Vanek ($2.5MM in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Marcus Foligno

Best Value: Dubnyk
Worst Value: Ennis

Looking Ahead

By the time they get Foligno locked up (his qualifying offer was $2.25MM so his contract will come in higher than that), Minnesota is going to be dancing around the cap with very little wiggle room for all of this season. That shouldn’t be the case next year, however.

Zucker, Dumba, and Koivu are the only three expiring contracts of note and the team has plenty of room in 2018-19 (currently $55MM committed to 15 players) to keep or replace them and still fill out their roster without much issue.

Things will get a bit trickier for 2019-20 where they have nearly $44MM locked up in just nine players. They also have to be mindful of the potential cap recapture where they could be faced with a significant cap charge if Suter and/or Parise retire early (it will vary depending on the year they do so) that could restrict their flexibility down the road. That’s still quite a ways away from happening though so it’s not likely to factor into their planning over the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

September 3, 2017 at 8:50 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $75,196,355 (over the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Devin Shore (One year remaining, $870K)
D Julius Honka (Two years remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Honka: $500K

Total: $500K

Despite a disappointing season a year ago, the Dallas Stars did have some young players who showed some promise. Shore was one of those players. A second-round pick in 2010, the 23-year-old had a decent first year with the Stars, scoring 13 goals and adding 20 assists and playing in all 82 contests. What Shore did not get much of was ice time, as he averaged just 14:08 on the ice. That may change this year as there are many who believe he could be a top-six forward right now. Honka is another player who got a little bit of time with the Stars last year. The 21-year-old defender, their first-round pick from 2014, has already fared well with the AHL’s Texas Stars. He scored seven goals and added 24 assists in 50 games with them and got 16 games with Dallas at the end of the year and picked up five points. He is a likely candidate to make the team this year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Kari Lehtonen ($5.9MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Antoine Roussel ($2MM, UFA)
D Jamie Oleksiak ($965K, RFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($945K, RFA)
D Greg Pateryn ($800K, UFA)
D Stephen Johns ($725K, RFA)
F Curtis McKenzie ($700K, UFA)
F Brian Flynn ($700K, UFA)
F Mattias Janmark ($700K, RFA)
F Adam Cracknell ($675K, UFA)

That’s a long list, but the team really has few major worries about re-signing free agents next season. Lehtonen was a buyout candidate this offseason after the team had too many goaltenders. Instead, they held onto him to be their backup, but at $5.9MM, that’s an expensive backup who played 59 games and had a save percentage of .902. The team will rejoice at their salary cap savings next season. As for Hamhuis, the 34-year-old blueliner will need to have a big year if he wants another contract.

The 27-year-old Roussel is a different story. Everything depends on how he plays, but Dallas would like to see more offense than 12 goals from him to go with his 115 penalty minutes he picked up last year. The same holds true for Oleksiak, although he will be a restricted free agent, but the 24-year-old defenseman must show he can win a full-time job. He only managed 41 games last year. Johns, however, will likely be retained next year. He managed to get into 61 games last year and currently expected to make the team.

Two Years Remaining

F Jason Spezza ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Seguin ($5.75MM, UFA)
D Marc Methot ($4.9MM, UFA)
D Esa Lindell ($2.2MM, RFA)
F Brett Ritchie ($1.75MM, RFA)

This will be where the Stars must make some key decisions. Seguin will be their top target as re-signing their star will be essential. The 25-year-old center forced his way out of Boston and landed in Dallas where is career really took off. He has put up 133 goals in four seasons and even though he had a bit of a down year last year (26 goals), everyone did. He should move back to center this year under coach Ken Hitchcock and is expected to have a big year, despite having shoulder surgery. He is expected back for training camp.

Spezza, on the other hand, will be 36 when his contract expires and his numbers have been declining for the last few years. At $7.5MM, there are many better ways to improve this team than his 15 goals and 35 assists. No one is quite sure what Methot will do in Dallas. Acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights after the expansion draft, Methot is a very good defensive player, but injuries have stood in his way – often freak injuries like the finger slash. He has never once in his career played an 82-game season and he’s 32. He played 68 games last year, so the stars are hoping for a big season from him despite his expensive price tag.

Lindell was signed to a two-year extension just this offseason. The 23-year-old got into 73 games in his first full season with the Stars. He had a quiet, but solid season for Dallas and should be part of their long-term future. Ritchie is also a commodity the Stars will want to lock up in two years. His first full season produced 16 goals. Along with his 6-foot-3 size and his speed, he is a candidate for a breakout season this year.

Three Years Remaining

F Martin Hanzal ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Radek Faksa ($2.2MM, RFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($1MM, RFA)

After the team will be forced to pay up for players like Seguin, Lindell and Ritchie, the team won’t have as much to spend one year later. Hanzal, who just signed a three-year deal with Dallas this offseason, is already 30 years old. Will he be worth bringing back in three years? It will depend on his success over the next three years, but if they can get 20 goals like he put up this last year between Arizona and Minnesota, perhaps they would. Faksa will be a restricted free agent, but like Ritchie, could be in line for a big season this year. The 23-year-old had 12 goals and 33 points this past year and is already praised for his defensive play. Once his offensive skills catch up, he should put up good numbers. Pitlick is more of an unknown. Signed from Edmonton this summer, the 25-year-old had eight goals in 31 games, but has never been able to crack the Oilers’ lineup. He hopes to get that chance this year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM through 2024-25)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM through 2021-22)
G Ben Bishop ($4.92MM through 2022-23)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM through 2021-22)

The team has only a handful of long-term contracts, starting with Benn, who had a 41-goal season in the 2015-16 season and was rewarded with an eight-year extension at $9.5MM. Unfortunately, he put up only 26 goals last year, the first year in the deal. However, there is the general belief that the 28-year-old will bounce back and put up another big season like he had the three years before. Expect those numbers to also go up with this year’s big free agent acquisition in Radulov. The former Canadiens wing came over from the KHL last year and put up an 18-goal season and is likely to team up with Benn this season. The 31-year-old is expected to put up big numbers, but will he be worth the contract when he is in his mid-thirties?

Bishop is another one of the team’s big acquisitions after the Stars acquired him from the Los Angeles Kings and signed him to a six year deal for 4.92MM per year. He dominated for many years with the Tampa Bay Lightning, but became expendable to the Lightning and later to the Kings who traded for him at the deadline this year. But despite a slightly down year, Bishop should be able to produce with his 2.32 career GAA. Klingberg is also a key piece to the Stars puzzle. The 25-year-old blueliner has been the team’s star on defense, putting up 13 goals and 49 points last season. His deal almost looks like a bargain at $4.25MM.

Buyouts

Antti Niemi ($1.5MM for 2017-18 and $1.5MM for 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Klingberg
Worst Value: Radulov

Looking Ahead

After a extremely disappointing season that saw them go from a team that reached the second round of the playoffs to a team that placed sixth in the Central Divison, the Stars went out and spent some money. They picked up Hanzal, Radulov and traded and signed Bishop all for big money. They have quite a bit of youth that are mixed in to their veteran players and if those players emerge, the Stars should be able to easily get back into the playoff mix. Obviously, the need to make sure they retain Seguin, but with an influx of defenseman like Klingberg, Lindell, Honka and 2017 third-overall pick Miro Heiskanen, the team should be ready to move on from some of their veteran defenders. The team also has high hopes they can eventually bring back 2014 first-rounder Valeri Nichushkin, who left the organization a year ago to play in the KHL. All in all, the Stars should be in good shape for the future.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

September 3, 2017 at 4:16 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $72,569,167 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Robby Fabbri (One year remaining, $894K)
F Zachary Sanford (Two years remaining, $875K)
F Ivan Barbashev (Two years remaining, $742K)

Potential Bonuses

Fabbri: $425K
Barbashev: $183K
Sanford: $50K

Total: $658K

Much of the attention of the youth will fall on Fabbri, who many are hoping will have a breakout season this year. The former 2014 first-round pick has already played two full seasons with the club and combined for 29 goals, but many people feel this might be the year where he takes that next step. He looked to be having a solid year last year, but tore his ACL in February and missed the rest of the season. Now healthy, many believe the Blues will move him to center to take control of a top line.

Sanford and Barbashev are two youngsters who many feel may also take on regular roles in St. Louis this year. Sanford, a second-round pick in 2013 by the Washington Capitals, came to St. Louis in the Kevin Shattenkirk trade at the trade deadline last season. The 22-year-old joined the Blues for the final 13 games and scored two goals and five assists and many believe he should make a solid fourth-line center as he develops his game. Barbashev is a second-round pick from the 2014 draft and got a promotion for the season’s final 30 games. The 21-year-old picked up five goals and seven assists and showed that he deserves a chance to start, but may have to settle for a wing position to start the year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Paul Stastny ($7MM, UFA)
G Carter Hutton ($1.125MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Dmitrij Jaskin ($1MM, RFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($950K, UFA)
F Magnus Paajarvi ($800K, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($675K, RFA)
F Beau Bennett ($650K, RFA)

Obviously the team has to make a decision on what it plans to do with Stastny as he’s the biggest name amongst the team’s pending free agents next season. Stastny has been a solid contributor at center, but hardly spectacular and is probably not worth the $7MM AAV that he has received from St. Louis when they signed him in 2014. Injuries have played a major role for the 31-year-old veteran as he has missed 42 games in three seasons. On top of that, he only took 112 shots, one of the lowest of his career and his 22 assists last year is his career low, not including the strike-shortened 2012-13 season. The team has put some effort into developing some of their youngsters at the center position, including Fabbri, Barbashev and Sanford likely in hopes of eventually finding a replacement for Stastny in the near future.

After Stastny, the talent level drops, but the team will have several restricted free agents who will be in line for more money next year. Edmundson, entering his third full year in the league, who has struggled with injuries in his two years. He played in 67 games in 2015-16 and just 69 games last year. He put up three goals and 12 assists last year, but should get more playing time with Shattenkirk gone and if he can stay healthy, should put up even better numbers. Sundqvist also came to St. Louis in a recent trade. Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Ryan Reaves trade, Sundqvist hopes to break camp with the Blues. He couldn’t crack the lineup in Pittsburgh, managing just 28 games over the past two years, but he did score 20 goals for the Penguins’ AHL squad this year. The center has a good chance to win a bottom six center position this year.

Jaskin has had trouble staying in the lineup for the Blues. The 24-year-old has been with the team now for four seasons, but has never been able to a steady contributor. He only managed to get into 51 games last year, for one goal and 10 assists. If he can’t put together a solid season, it may be his last in St. Louis. Bennett, who was signed as a free agent this summer, must prove he can make the team first. The 25-year-old wing scored eight goals in 65 games for the New Jersey Devils last year.

Among unrestricted free agents, the team may want to bring back Hutton, who has served the Blues well as their backup goaltender. The 31-year-old played 29 games and finished the year with a 2.39 GAA and a .913 save percentage. The 33-year-old Brodziak makes for a good fourth-line player, but this could likely be his last year in St. Louis, while Paajarvi split time between the Blues and the Chicago Wolves and also could be at the end of the line if he can’t make the team out of training camp.

Two Years Remaining

D Jay Bouwmeester ($5.4MM, UFA)
D Carl Gunnarsson ($2.9MM, UFA)
D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Chris Thorburn ($900K, UFA)
D Nate Prosser ($650K, UFA)

This will be the year where the Blues will have to make some defensive decisions, especially with Bouwmeester, who will be 35 years old when his contract comes up. The deal he signed back in 2014 looked good, but three years later, he isn’t nearly as good and despite contantly being handed a role on the top defensive line, his time is fading quickly. Gunnarsson and Bortuzzo are bottom-line defenders and will likely be replaced by younger options.

Three Years Remaining

D Alex Pietrangelo ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Brayden Schenn ($5.125MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Sobotka ($3.5MM, UFA)

The team does have most of its top players already locked up for a significant amount of time and that includes Pietrangelo, who remains the team’s top defenseman. Of all the defensemen that benefitted when the team dealt Shattenkirk to the Capitals, the 27-year-old took advantage of the extra playing time. He had 30 points after his first 60 games, but after the trade, his numbers took off with 18 points in the next 20 games. He could have a breakout year. Schenn, acquired from the Philadelphia Flyers at a costly price of two potential first-round picks along with Jori Lehtera, should provide the team with some scoring. He has scored 51 goals over the last two seasons. Sobotka is the wildcard whose future is hard to project. After playing four years for the Blues, he left the NHL and played three years in the KHL before returning at the end of the season, signing a new three-year deal in April. He played in the team’s final regular season game, scoring a goal and then added two goals and six assists in 11 playoff games. The 30-year-old wing should be able to contribute to the team’s second or third line for a few more years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM through 2022-23)
F Alex Steen ($5.75MM through 2020-21)
D Colton Parayko ($5.5MM through 2021-22)
F Jaden Schwartz ($5.35MM through 2020-21)
G Jake Allen ($4.35MM through 2020-21)
F Patrik Berglund ($3.85MM through 2021-22)

Most of the team’s top talent is already locked up long-term. Tarasenko is signed for the longest and fortunately for the team, he’s also their best player. The 25-year-old has scored 116 goals over the past three years and still has the potential to get better. Many believe that despite having Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester, Parayko might be their best defenseman of the future. Already locked up for five more years, the 24-year-old blueliner is coming off a 35-point season and many feel he will only improve. Schwartz, who will likely team up with Tarasenko, is coming off a 55-point season with 19 goals. At 25, he should continue to develop alongside of Tarasenko.

Allen has steadily developed into a quality goaltender over the past few years and he really took off as the starter this year. He played in a career-high 61 games last year, putting up a 2.42 GAA and a .915 save percentage. However, he got even better once new coach Mike Yeo came aboard in February. In his final 25 games, he was 16-7-2 with a .938 save percentage. He should continue to put up good numbers for the next several years. The team took a hard loss earlier this offseason when Berglund underwent surgery on his left shoulder and will not return until December. The 29-year-old wing had a career-high 23 goals last year. Perhaps one of their worst deals, Steen still has four years at 33 years old. He has had a couple of down years after putting up 31 and 24 goals, respectively, but has managed just 33 goals in the last two years combined. Still, he put up 51 points last year and did have a broken bone in his foot during the playoffs, so maybe he deserves a break.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Tarasenko
Worst Value: Steen

Looking Ahead

This will be Yeo’s first full season in St. Louis, so he should have even more control than last year’s team that survived a round of the playoffs before losing in the second round to the Nashville Predators. With the additions of Sobotka and Schenn as well as the continued development of Tarasenko, Fabbri, Parayko and Pietrangelo to name a few, the Blues seem to have a bright future ahead of them. They are in solid shape cap-wise and should still be able to pick up a few free agents in the future if they can keep things going.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

September 2, 2017 at 8:55 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $57,037,501 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nico Hischier (Three years remaining, $925K)
D Will Butcher (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Michael Kapla (One year remaining, $925K)
F Pavel Zacha (Two years remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Hischier: $2.85MM
Butcher: $2.85MM
Zacha: $850K
Total: $6.55MM

It turned into a solid summer for the Devils as they won the draft lottery and used that first-overall pick to select Hischier, a talented Swiss center, who put up 38 goals and 86 points in 57 games for the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL. He is expected to break camp with the team and have an immediate impact. With recent injuries, Hischier could take over as the second-line center and start his career in a great position. The hope is he will help lead this team to the playoffs sooner rather than later.

Butcher has been a more recent signing sensation as the Devils also won the offseason bidding for the Hobey Baker Award winner after he became a free agent several weeks ago. Butcher picked the Devils with the hopes of getting immediate playing time, since no one is truly sure if he is an NHL impact player. The 22-year-old blueliner put up outstanding numbers as a junior and senior at the University of Denver, but chose not to sign with the team that drafted him, the Colorado Avalanche. With the Devils biggest weakness being their defense, the team is thrilled to bring him on board.

Zacha, the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft, finished his first full season in New Jersey, playing in 70 games, while putting up eight goals and 16 assists for the year. While those numbers look disappointing, he didn’t play a lot of minutes last year (14:18) and didn’t play with much talent next to him, although he looked good playing alongside Taylor Hall at points during the season. He should take that next step this year. Kapla, like Butcher arrives to join the team’s defense from college. He played four years for the University of Massachusetts – Lowell and signed a two year deal immediately after ending his senior year. That first year consisted of five games. Already on year two of his deal, Kapla must prove he is an NHL defenseman this year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Ryane Clowe ($4.85MM, UFA)
D John Moore ($1.67MM, UFA)
D Dalton Prout ($1.575MM, UFA)
F Drew Stafford ($800K, UFA)
F Stefan Noesen ($660K, RFA)

The group is not filled with impact players, so the Devils have little to worry about in the short term. They will likely rejoice once’s Clowe’s contract comes off the books. The veteran signed a five-year deal back in 2013 and only played two years, before being forced to retire due to concussion issues. Moore is an offensive defenseman (22 points in 63 games last year), but is totally inept on the defensive end. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the team went in a different direction on defense next year.

Prout, who the team picked up at the trade deadline for veteran Kyle Quincey, only played 14 games for the Devils and it might take all season to determine whether or not he has value. Stafford, who just signed recently to a one-year deal, could easily be a bargaining chip at the trade deadline. After putting up 21 goals two seasons ago while with the Winnipeg Jets, his value dropped as he scored just eight goals between the Jets and the Boston Bruins last season. The Devils, however, are counting on a bounce-back season, which could eventually net them some more young talent. Noesen, who signed a one-year, two-way contract will try to make the roster this year after scoring six goals in 32 games for New Jersey last season.

Two Years Remaining

F Marcus Johansson ($4.58MM, UFA)
F Adam Henrique ($4MM, UFA)
F Brian Boyle ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Ben Lovejoy ($2.67MM, UFA)
G Keith Kinkaid ($1.25MM, UFA)

The team picked up some much-needed scoring in Johansson from the division rival Capitals for a second and a third round pick, but the 26-year-old winger scored 24 goals last year, albeit on a offensive juggernaut. The former first-round pick in 2009 has averaged 20 goals in the past three seasons and he should get even more ice time in New Jersey than he saw in Washington. The team has two years to see whether the forward is worth holding onto as a future piece or as future trade bait.

The Devils have a much better knowledge on what Henrique can do. The 27-year-old center has had a 30-goal season (in the 2015-16 season) and has put up nice scoring numbers, but assists have been few, especially for a center. He had a down year last year, putting up 20 goals, but only had 20 assists to go with that. For a top-six center, those numbers are a little disappointing. The Devils still have two more years to see if he can develop, otherwise it’s more likely the two teams could part ways.

As for Boyle, the Devils brought the 32-year-old in on a two-year deal to provide veteran leadership and a person who can center one of the bottom two lines and the team was praised for that signing. Lovejoy provides the team with a strong defensive presence, but like most of the defense, he is very one-sided. He is great on defense, but can’t produce much on offense, finishing last year with seven points in 82 games. At 33, this is likely his last contract with the Devils. Kinkaid returns as a quality backup to Schneider and should provide good value for the next two years.

Three Years Remaining

F Taylor Hall ($6MM, UFA)
D Andy Greene ($5MM, UFA)

Two players heading in opposite directions of their career, but both are valuable to the franchise. Hall, despite coming off a down year (almost all Devils had down years), has two 25-goal seasons to his resume and still had 20 goals last year. The 25-year-old wing is one of the team’s top scorers and many believe that the team’s success will ride on his play. With three years left on his deal, the Devils again have time to decide whether he is worth a big payday down the road. Greene, a 34-year-old aging defenseman, is also a defensive-first player and has always been. As the team focuses its future attention on their defense, Greene playing time may drop over the next few years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Cory Schneider ($6MM through 2021-22)
F Travis Zajac ($5.75MM through 2020-21)
F Kyle Palmieri ($4.65MM through 2020-21)

Schneider is locked up for the longest on this team and until last year, that deal looked like a great one. The 31-year-old goaltender has been golden throughout most of his career, but the team’s poor defensive play finally got to Schneider, who struggled in his 60 games played. His 2.82 GAA and .908 save percentages were career lows and the team believes he will bounce back even though the team has done very little to improve their defense this offseason.

To make matters worse, the team also lost Zajac to injury this offseason. The veteran center will be out for four to six months after he had surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle, which he sustained during offseason training. While he may be back late in the season, the injury will force others like Henrique to step up and take a larger role this season. Zajac, who has spent his entire career in New Jersey, had 14 goals and 31 assists last year. But the fact that he’ll be 36 when is contract ends, this contract is likely to be one they want to get out of at some point in the future.

Palmieri, like Hall, is the present day future of the Devils. The 26-year-old wing has scored 56 goals in the past two seasons and has been one of their most dominant players. At $4.65MM, that’s pretty good value for the forward.

Buyouts

F Mike Cammalleri ($1.67MM through 2020-21)
F Devante Smith-Pelly ($175K in 2017-18, $225K in 2018-19)
F Ilya Kovalchuk (not a buyout, but a recapture penalty will cost the team $250K through 2024-25 after retiring three years into a 15-year, $100MM deal)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Damon Severson

Best Value: Palmieri
Worst Value: Clowe

Looking Ahead

The Devils look to be in a better situation after a solid offseason. Striking the lottery and getting Hischier is a huge stroke of luck, one the organization needs after several years of struggles. The team’s defense also got a boost recently when they signed Butcher from the college ranks. Both prospects should provide long-term value, and the team is not clogged up with too many expensive contracts. Most general managers would be happy to pay Schneider just $6MM over the next five years. What the team needs to do is continue to improve and develop their prospects. Players like Pamieri, Hall, Henrique and Severson must continue to improve and take their games up a notch this season. But with a low cap number and some young prospects on the horizon, the Devils should continue to improve over the next few years.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

September 2, 2017 at 3:36 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $67,012,975 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oliver Bjorkstrand (One year remaining, $656K)
D Gabriel Carlsson (Three years remaining, $894K)
F Pierre-Luc Dubois (Three years remaining, $925K)
F Sonny Milano (Two years remaining, $863K)
D Markus Nutivaara (One year remaining, $818K)
D Zach Werenski (Two years remaining, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Bjorkstrand: $133K
Dubois: $2.5MM
Milano: $400K
Werenski: $850K

Total: $3.883MM

Bjorkstrand was expected to be an important player last year after a strong finish to his rookie campaign but he instead split 2016-17 between the NHL and AHL. He should be able to lock down a regular role this time around but given his small track record so far, he looks like a candidate for a bridge deal next summer. Dubois, the third overall selection just a year ago, didn’t have a great year at the junior level but should get a long look at training camp. Milano spent most of his first pro season in the minors and was productive and should also get a long look. There’s room for both top youngsters potentially to make the lineup.

On the back end, Werenski had a fantastic rookie season that saw him finished third in Calder Trophy voting for Rookie of the Year. He set a team record for rookie scoring while finishing 13th league-wide in points by a blueliner with 47. He maxed out on his Class A performance bonuses and assuming he stays healthy, he should be able to do so again in 2017-18 without too much difficulty. He’s trending towards landing himself a significant second contract if he can keep this up for the next two years; already a bridge deal doesn’t seem likely.

Nutivaara wasn’t expected to land a roster spot but he wound up playing somewhat of a regular role on the third pairing. He’ll likely find himself in that sixth or seventh role once again which wouldn’t have him in line for any sort of notable raise. Carlsson played more with the Blue Jackets in the playoffs than he did during the regular season which will have him in the mix for a spot in training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Cam Atkinson ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.2MM, UFA)
F Boone Jenner ($2.9MM, RFA)
D Jack Johnson ($4.36MM, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($2.825MM, RFA)

Atkinson has quickly blossomed into a reliable goal scorer and set a new career mark with 35 tallies last season. If he comes close to those numbers once again, he’s going to set himself up to be one of the top forwards in free agency and it’s going to take a big raise to keep him around. Jenner’s production dipped from 30 goals to 18 while he also spent more time on the wing than in previous years. He’s still poised to see a pay bump in his next contract but it may not be as high as it may have seemed a year ago. Calvert saw his role decrease last year and if he stays in the bottom six (a likely scenario), there’s a good chance he’ll be let go after the season to save a bit of cap space as they’ll likely look to fill his spot with a cheaper player.

Johnson hasn’t lived up to his high draft billing (third overall in 2005) but is still a legitimate top-four defender. However, his offensive production has dropped quite a bit over the past two seasons which could hurt his leverage if he gets to the open market. As things stand, a new deal for him should come in somewhat close to his current one. Murray is another player who has yet to live up to his draft status (second overall in 2012) and is coming off a season where his average ice time dipped to career lows. As a result, his name has been involved in trade speculation and that’s probably not going to change. If he doesn’t have a rebound year in 2017-18, it might be tough to find the right fit on a long-term deal next summer.

Two Years Remaining

G Sergei Bobrovsky ($7.425MM, UFA)
F Markus Hannikainen ($675K, RFA)
D Scott Harrington ($675K, RFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($900K, RFA)
F Artemi Panarin ($6MM, UFA)
F Lukas Sedlak ($875K, RFA)

Panarin’s trade to Columbus was arguably the biggest deal of the offseason, one that saw the team surrender two years of player control with Brandon Saad heading the other way. Panarin has had two very strong seasons so far with over 70 points in each. This contract he’s on sets him up to hit the open market at 27 where he could be the most sought after player in free agency so a big raise is likely forthcoming. Sedlak and Hannikainen project to be depth forwards and their next deals shouldn’t be considerably higher in terms of cost. On the back end, Harrington also projects as cheap depth once again and won’t command a big raise two years from now in all likelihood.

What a difference a year makes when it comes to Bobrovsky. This time a year ago, there was a case to be made that he was overpaid but after a career year that saw him earn the Vezina Trophy, now it’s fair to wonder how much more it might cost to keep him, especially with the recent escalation in goaltender salaries. That, of course, will change if he plays more like the 2015-16 version over the next couple of years but GM Jarmo Kekalainen will have to keep that in mind when planning ahead. Korpisalo begins his first year of full-time NHL play and if he progresses as the team hopes, he will also be in line for a notable raise at the end of this contract.

Three Years Remaining

None (other than Carlsson and Dubois, covered above)

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Brandon Dubinsky ($5.85MM through 2020-21)
F Nick Foligno ($5.5MM through 2020-21)
D Seth Jones ($5.4MM through 2021-22)
D David Savard ($4.25MM through 2020-21)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.9MM through 2022-23)

Wennberg’s deal came together just recently with pen being put to paper back on Friday. It’s a pretty safe move as it represents market value for a second liner and even if he regresses a little, he’ll still be a solid second liner. (And if he continues to improve, it’s a steal of a deal.) He’s an important part of the team that’s locked up at a team-friendly rate. Foligno isn’t likely to get back over the 70 point plateau which he did the season in which he signed his current deal but if he can hold around 45-50 point mark like he did last year, it’s decent value. Dubinsky has seen his production dip lately but he’s still a key part of their lineup. This contract could be a bit burdensome by the end if his scoring continues to drop but that’s a few years away from happening.

Jones hasn’t disappointed since joining the team from Nashville as he continues to show that he’s a legitimate top pairing blueliner. To have one of those under contract for the next half-decade at that rate is a nice spot for the Blue Jackets to be in. Savard’s output is down relative to a couple of years ago but he remains a quality top-four player locked in at a rate that is commensurate with what a lot of second pairing defenders are receiving.

Buyouts

F Jared Boll ($567K in 2017-18)
F Scott Hartnell ($1.5MM in 2017-18, $3MM in 2018-19, $1.25MM in 2019-20/2020-21)
D Fedor Tyutin ($1.958MM in 2017-18, $1.458MM in 2018-19/2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Josh Anderson

Best Value: Werenski (Atkinson among non-ELC players)
Worst Value: Calvert

Looking Ahead

Columbus is going to be in great shape when it comes to the salary cap this season, even when they get Anderson locked up eventually. The bigger question will be whether they can afford to retain their top players as their contracts expire over the next two seasons. They should have the ability to do so with the players who are entering the final year of their deals in 2017-18 but after that, it could be a bit of a challenge.

As things stand, the Blue Jackets have just shy of $30MM tied up in six players for 2019-20. Werenski, Panarin, and Bobrovsky all have their contracts ending the year before and it’s going to take big ticket deals to lock those three up while players like Atkinson (assuming he re-signs), Murray, and Jenner will have their next deals by then. Add new contracts for them to what they already have committed and there’s a good chance they find themselves very tight to the cap, especially with several other players needed to fill out the roster. That’s a concern for a couple of years down the road though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

September 1, 2017 at 6:10 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $69,859,167 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Travis Konecny (Two years remaining, $894K)
F Nolan Patrick (Three years remaining, $925K)
D Samuel Morin (One year remaining, $863K)
D Ivan Provorov (Two years remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Konecny: $213K
Morin: $500K
Patrick: $2.65MM
Provorov: $850K

Total: $4.213MM

Konecny got off to a hot start last season but tailed off down the stretch. However, with a full NHL season under his belt, he should be in line for a solid sophomore year and will likely play in their top six. As for Patrick, the second overall selection is expected to lock down a regular roster spot although GM Ron Hextall has said they won’t force him into NHL action if he’s not ready. With their depth down the middle, the Flyers will be able to ease Patrick into the lineup which is something that isn’t typically afforded to top picks just coming out of the draft.

Provorov was put into a key role right away and he passed the test with flying colors. It’s quite rare that a rookie defender leads the team in average ice time but that happened last season with the 20-year-old, who also finished second on the team in points from the back end. Philadelphia will need to enjoy his cheap deal while they can as he already is on track for a massive raise on his second contract.

It’s expected that quite a few youngsters will get a chance on the back end. Morin is among those after getting a pair of full AHL seasons under his belt. Others like Robert Hagg (one year remaining) and Travis Sanheim (two years remaining) are also expected to get a long look at training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Valtteri Filppula ($5MM, UFA)
D Brandon Manning ($975K, UFA)
F Matt Read ($3.625MM, UFA)

Filppula was acquired from the Lightning back at the trade deadline with Tampa looking to unload some salary for this season. While he’s not likely to push for more than 50 points like he did earlier in his career, he still slots in as a capable second liner. If he makes it to the open market, his next deal should come in relatively close to this one. Read’s contract looked reasonable when it was signed as a winger on the rise but he has tailed off in recent years. He’s not likely to be back after this season and his next contract will be for considerably less.

Manning has taken on more of a regular role over the last couple of seasons. He’ll likely reprise a depth role but if the youngsters struggle early on, he could be asked to take on more of the load at times.

Two Years Remaining

G Brian Elliott ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Jori Lehtera ($4.7MM, UFA)
G Michal Neuvirth ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($2.35MM, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($3.975MM, UFA)
F Mike Vecchione ($900K, RFA)
F Jordan Weal ($1.75MM, UFA)

Simmonds is currently on one of the top team-friendly deals in the league. He signed it after his first year in Philly in 2012 and has been a top-six winger (often a front liner) since then. He’ll undoubtedly be looking for a big raise when this one is up but with his physical style of play, it will be interesting to see if that makes the team hesitant to hand out a long-term pact. Lehtera disappointed with St. Louis last season and will be looking to rebound in their top-six. Given their depth down the middle, there’s a chance that he could be moved out to the wing with the Flyers. Raffl had a year to forget in 2016-17 and didn’t live up to the contract. He’s more of a depth player at this point and if he struggles again early on, he’s someone that they could look to move. Weal didn’t play much in the NHL last year (and has only 37 career games under his belt) but impressed Hextall enough to land a big raise and a one-way deal so he’s likely to get a longer look. As for Vecchione, even though he has a one-way pact of his own, he’s still waiver exempt and is a candidate to go back-and-forth between the NHL and AHL.

Although goaltending remains a big question mark for Philadelphia (seemingly an annual tradition), the team has done well to not lock into long-term deals while they wait for some of their prospects to develop. Elliott comes over from Calgary where he didn’t fare well but he’s only a year removed from a much better season with St. Louis. Even if he just comes close to those numbers, this would be a big upgrade and a nice steal for the Flyers. Neuvirth is also coming off of a down year but at the very least, he provides insurance as someone that can assume the starting role if need be.

Three Years Remaining

D Radko Gudas ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Andrew MacDonald ($5MM, UFA)
F Dale Weise ($2.35MM, UFA)

Weise did not have a good first season with the Flyers and wound up as a healthy scratch at times. If that happens again in 2017-18, it wouldn’t be surprising if they consider buying him out next summer.

Gudas has a well-deserved reputation for being a predatory player but he’s also a capable second pairing player that took a step forward offensively last season. While some criticized his contract that was signed last summer as being too pricey, if he can maintain a comparable level of play this year, it’s not a bad contract at all. MacDonald hasn’t come close to living up to his money. He’s a third pairing player that has cleared waivers in the past. Hextall would love to unload his deal but unless he’s willing to take a comparably bad contract in return, that’s not going to happen.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sean Couturier ($4.33MM through 2021-22)
F Claude Giroux ($8.275MM through 2021-22)
D Shayne Gostisbehere ($4.5MM through 2022-23)
F Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM through 2023-24)

It’s not entirely fair to suggest that Giroux is at a crossroads but his production has dropped for four straight years despite still seeing top line ice time; his 58 points last year was his lowest in a full season since 2009-10. He’s certainly capable of rebounding into form and if he does, this won’t be too onerous of a contract down the road. If the recent trend continues and his scoring output drops again though, there’s bound to be an increase in trade speculation as they’ll be paying top end money for no better than second line production.

Voracek signed his contract coming off of a career year but has put up 55 and 61 points since then. That’s not bad by any stretch but it isn’t what they’re paying him to produce. Because of the term left on the deal, he’d be tough to trade even if they wanted to so he’ll get plenty of chances to rebound. Couturier hasn’t become the offensive force he was back in junior but he is still a very strong two-way center on a good contract.

On the back end, Gostisbehere bypassed the bridge deal back in June with his new deal. His production dipped from his rookie season but was still above average overall. His offensive game alone should cover the cost of the contract but if he can improve in his own end, this could be a real bargain before too long.

Buyouts

G Ilya Bryzgalov (Compliance buyout so no cap hit; payments $1.643MM to be made through 2026-27)
F R.J. Umberger ($1.5MM in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Simmonds
Worst Value: MacDonald

Looking Ahead

For years, the Flyers found themselves in cap trouble to the point where there some bonus overages that carried over along the way. That’s not the case now. They’re comfortably under heading into 2017-18 and with the influx of young talent coming through the pipeline, they’ll be in good shape with quality players on cheap entry-level deals for the foreseeable future.

If Giroux (and to a lesser extent, Voracek) don’t rebound from the last couple of seasons, their contracts will hurt a bit. But again, a good chunk of those concerns can be offset by some cheaper talent on the horizon. Philadelphia is in very good shape cap-wise moving forward in a very tough Metropolitan Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

August 27, 2017 at 2:30 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $72,015,833 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Anthony Beauvillier (Two years remaining, $894K)
D Ryan Pulock (One year remaining, $863K)
F Joshua Ho-Sang (Two years remaining, $863K)
F Mathew Barzal (Three years remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Pulock: $500K
Barzal: $400K
Beauvullier: $213K
Ho-Sang: $213K

The team had to be pleased with the first-year production from Beauvillier after he put up nine goals and 15 assists in 66 games. Granted, it could have been better, but for the former 2015 first-round pick who wasn’t even expected to make the team out of training camp last year, this was a solid start. He didn’t get off to much of a start early in the season, but by the end of the year, he put together a solid string of games along with linemates Ho-Sang and Lee. He will likely find himself on the team’s third line along with Ho-Sang to start the year.

Pulock, the team’s first-round pick in 2013, was one of the main reasons behind the offseason trade of Travis Hamonic. The talented defenseman was traded away for a first and two second-round picks with the idea of implementing Pulock into the team’s plans. Rumors are they intend to put Pulock onto the team’s power play and showcase his hard slapshot. He only played one game for New York last year and broke his foot after playing just 3:57 of ice time, but he showed off his skill with the AHL’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers, putting up 15 goals and 46 points in just 55 games.

Ho-Sang, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, only played 21 games last year for the Islanders, putting up four goals and six assists in that span. A full 82-game season should be able to demonstrate his long-term value to the franchise. Barzal still must make the team out of training camp, but is considered to be one of the top prospects in the game and should have every opportunity to win one of the center jobs, which is not a position of depth on the team. Barzal did see two games for the Islanders last year, but played most of the year for his junior team.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F John Tavares ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Jaroslav Halak ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Nikolai Kulemin ($4.19MM, UFA)
F Josh Bailey ($3.3MM, UFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($3.3MM, UFA)
F Brock Nelson ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Jason Chimera ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Dennis Seidenberg ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Shane Prince ($850K, RFA)
F Stephen Gionta ($650K, UFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($625K, RFA)
F Alan Quine ($613K, RFA)

Obviously, the team’s future seems to hinge on where Tavares’ contract situation ends up. The team has high hopes they can re-sign their star forward, who has scored 235 goals for the franchise over eight season and is just about to turn 27 years old. The team that has watched several of their top players walk away in past years need to lock him up or, at the very least, trade him off for some talent in return. Losing Tavares would likely set the team back significantly and could play a role on whether some of the other pending free agents will come back next year.

The team will be forced to decide what they want to do with some of their regulars, including Bailey, de Haan and Hickey. Bailey, a first-round pick from 2008, has been around for nine years and while he consistently averages between 10 and 15 goals, he hit a personal high in assists last season, picking up 43 to put together a big season while playing with Tavares on the first line. With the addition of Eberle who is expected to play with Tavares, the team will likely demote Bailey to the second or even possibly the third line, which could suggest the team may not mind if he moves on in one year.

De Haan has proven to be a solid top-four presence on the blueline, but after signing a one-year deal this offseason, setting up unrestricted free agency next year, the team may decide to move on from him at some point, while Hickey hasn’t worked his way into the team’s top four. So it may be that many of the pending free agents will be allowed to leave to free up cap space, including Kulemin, Chimera and Seidenberg, along with some of the others above. That could free up a lot of cap room.

The team also will likely allow Halak to walk unless the veteran goaltender can produce a bounce-back season. After a couple of respectable seasons for New York, the 32-year-old’s production took a hit as he posted a 2.80 GAA in 27 games and then was demoted to finish the season in the AHL. He is back, but no one is quite sure what to expect for the veteran.

Perhaps the most important free agent (besides Tavares) will end up being from restricted free agent Brock Nelson, who should be asking for a big raise after three 20-goal seasons. Their 2010 first-round pick had 20 goals and 25 assists for the team last year, a career-high.

Two Years Remaining

F Jordan Eberle ($6MM, UFA)
F Anders Lee ($3.75MM, UFA)

Two of their core players will be up in two years. Both expected to be current linemates to Tavares on the team’s first line this year, both could be major free agents in two years. Depending on their continued success and what state the franchise is in, the Islanders will have to make some key decisions on them. Eberle will be 29, but was quite consistent with Edmonton, putting up four straight 20-goal seasons, while Lee, who will also be 29 in two years, broke out with a 34-goal performance last year. Both will likely command big money.

Three Years Remaining

G Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM, UFA)

Starting a three-year, $10MM deal this season, the team hopes to see Greiss take control of the net as the full-time starter this year. However, the 31-year-old goaltender must continue to put up good numbers. His performance last year, a 2.69 GAA and a .913 save percentage was just average. The hope is he can show everyone he can and should be a starter in this league.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM through 2021-22)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM through 2021-22)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM through 2021-22)
F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM through 2020-21)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM through 2020-21)

The team does have a number of long-term contracts and the team has put a lot of responsibility on those players, especially Boychuk who has been the leader of their defense for the last few years. At 34 years old, Boychuk has been a solid player alongside partner Leddy. Both are locked up for five more years. Boychuk’s biggest problem is injuries as he only played in 66 contests last season and has never played a full season in his career. Leddy has been more of an offensive sparkplug for the team and played even better once he was reunited with Boychuk. His 11 goals and 35 assists were career highs last year and at age 26, his contract looks like a good value.

The team signed Ladd to a long-term extension a year ago. The 31-year-old wing is a model of consistency, putting up at least 20 goals in six of the last seven years. Currently slated to take over duties on the second line, the team has high hopes he can continue those numbers.

The two contracts that don’t make as much sense are the long-term deals given to Clutterbuck and Cizikas, both back-six players, yet combined, the Islanders are giving them a little under $7MM combined for the next four (or five for Clutterbuck) years.

Buyouts

G Rick DiPietro (compliance buyout, so no cap hit; $1.5MM payments to be made until 2028-29.)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Lee
Worst Value: Clutterbuck

Looking Ahead

The entire future of this franchise lands on the backs of management to convince Tavares to ink a long-term deal with the franchise. While finding a home for themselves is also a priority, the franchise should be stabilized if the 26-year-old veteran agrees to return next year. They have acquired the necessary scoring to surround him with top talent and have a young group of top forwards who can take that next step and provide that much needed depth. Without Tavares, the Islanders may have to settle for rebuilding once again.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

August 26, 2017 at 3:33 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $71,720,000 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Zach Aston-Reese (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Jake Guentzel (Two years remaining, $734K)

Potential Bonuses

Guentzel: $183K

Guentzel was the latest of Pittsburgh’s youngsters to come up and make a difference right away to the point where he became a key cog in their attack down the stretch. It will be interesting to see if his production carries over to a full season; if it does, he’s going to be a major bargain for them. Aston-Reese was one of the more sought after college free agents during the season. With their lack of depth down the middle as the roster currently stands, he’ll get a long look at training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Ian Cole ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Tom Kuhnhackl ($625K, RFA)
G Antti Niemi ($700K, UFA)
D Derrick Pouliot ($800K, RFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Carter Rowney ($613K, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($640K, RFA)
F Scott Wilson ($625K, RFA)

Hornqvist has been a reliable and consistent secondary scorer for Pittsburgh since they acquired him three years ago. He has posted at least 21 goals and 44 points in each season in that time. That type of production is always in demand so barring a down year, he’s likely to have a shot at more money in free agency. The Pens paid a notable price to add Reaves at the draft, trading from the first into the second round to do so. He has improved his all-around game to the point where he can handle a regular shift and there aren’t many tough guys that can do that and the ones that can have landed sizable deals on the open market. The other four forwards are all poised to play bottom six roles and given the number of big contracts on their books already, the team will likely be pushing for them to give up a bit of money on their next deals to hold down their spots in the lineup.

Cole is coming off a career year in both points (26) and ice time (19:49 per night). That’s a notable jump for someone who has been more of a stay-at-home player in the past. A repeat of that performance will have him in line for a big raise but if he reverts back to his normal numbers, his next contract should come in somewhat close to his current one. Pouliot spent the majority of last year at the minor league level but as he now requires waivers, he’s likely to stick on the roster in some capacity. Whether or not he can lock down a regular spot will go a long way towards determining what his next contract will be.

Niemi is coming off a tough season with Dallas that resulted in the final year of his contract being bought out. That allowed him to take a cheap deal to join the Penguins where he’ll likely be tasked with playing 20-25 games to give Tristan Jarry another season to develop in the minors. A strong season would go a long way towards rebuilding his value, especially with some of the better backups landing some bigger deals in recent years.

Two Years Remaining

F Josh Archibald ($675K, RFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($4MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($650K, UFA)

Hagelin really struggled in 2016-17 and collected just 22 points in 61 games, a career low. Accordingly, the speedy winger has come up as a frequent suggestion as someone the team could trade. However, potential suitors will likely want to see if he bounces back before making any sort of commitment. Like many of the depth players with one year left, Archibald is likely to serve a role at the bottom of the depth chart but checks in at only $25K over the league minimum which will help him secure a spot.

Ruhwedel played more games last season with Pittsburgh (34) than he did in four years with Buffalo combined (33). Their injury woes also allowed him to get into six postseason contests as well. He’ll once again serve as a depth option that they can call on as players start to get hurt.

Three Years Remaining

D Matt Hunwick ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Matthew Murray ($3.75MM, RFA)
D Justin Schultz ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Conor Sheary ($3MM, UFA)

Sheary avoided arbitration earlier this summer while giving up a year of free agency to sign his new deal. If he continues to put up 50+ points like he did last season, this has a chance of being a big bargain for Pittsburgh. Even if his point total drops, his cap hit is the going rate for above average third liners and he should be able to at least produce at that level so there isn’t much risk for the team here.

Schultz bet on himself with a one-year deal last summer and it paid off handsomely as he parlayed a 51-point year into his new contract. His role should be a bit lower this season with Kris Letang set to return from injury but he’ll still have plenty of ice time next season. Hunwick was added to replace Trevor Daley who left via free agency for Detroit. While there were moments where played big minutes with Toronto, he’s better suited as more of a third pairing player and if that is his role, Pittsburgh may have overpaid slightly for him.

Murray’s contract already looks like a major bargain but it’s not as if the deal didn’t carry risk as when he signed it, he had just 34 NHL games of experience (regular season and playoffs) under his belt. Fast forward to today and he has quickly established himself as a high-quality starter which has this looking like a deal that is well below market value.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM through 2024-25)
D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM through 2022-23)
F Phil Kessel ($6.8MM through 2021-22)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM through 2021-22)
D Olli Maatta ($4.083MM through 2021-22)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM through 2021-22)

Having the top player in the league in Crosby locked up for as long as they have at this rate has to be considered a bargain for the Penguins. Of course, the type of contract he’s on is now illegal but nonetheless they’ll be benefitting from it for a while yet. While Malkin comes in more expensive and doesn’t produce as much as Crosby, he’s still a premier pivot when he’s in the lineup (though staying healthy has proven to be a challenge). He’s high priced for a second line role but there’s no denying he’s a top line talent so it’s one they’re content to pay. Kessel has seen his goal totals drop since leaving Toronto but he is still a legitimate top line forward. However, his inconsistency has drawn the ire of coach Mike Sullivan and if Pittsburgh has to move out one of their ‘big three’ to free up some money, Kessel will be the one to be dealt.

On the back end, Letang is a legitimate number one defender but injuries are a big concern; he has averaged just 55 games over the last four seasons. If he can stay healthy, there won’t be any issues with that cap hit but if he continues to be banged up on an annual basis, it could be a problem down the road. Dumoulin avoided arbitration earlier this summer with his new contract. He has established himself as a reliable second pairing defender and that’s where his cap hit checks in. Maatta hasn’t turned into a top defenseman like the team was hoping for and was more of a fifth blueliner last season. It’s probably too early to suggest they’ll be actively shopping him soon but if he follows last year up with a similar performance, there’s a good chance GM Jim Rutherford will be looking to shed his salary at some point.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Murray
Worst Value: Maatta

Looking Ahead

With the number of big contracts that Pittsburgh has on the books, they’re going to be a team that’s tight to the cap for the foreseeable future. They have the wiggle room to make another addition this season but with nearly $55MM committed to just 10 players two years from now, they’d be wise to look for someone on a short-term deal. They’ve filled out their roster in recent years with cheap depth pieces and that’s a trend that’s likely going to continue for a while to come. That said, they should be able to keep the core together for at least a few more years assuming the Upper Limit continues to increase gradually as well so while they won’t be flush with cap space anytime soon, they’re not in bad shape overall.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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