What The Senators Can Learn From Past Champions’ Development Model

The Senators qualified for the playoffs last season for the first time since the 2016-17 season. Their young core finally turned the corner and took their first significant step in a rebuild that previously felt like it was skidding off the tracks. They lost to the Maple Leafs in six games, but it has generated a sense of optimism in Canada’s capital. Ottawa has a promising young core led by captain Brady Tkachuk, most of the group is signed to reasonable long-term deals, the new ownership group is stable, and the team is inching closer to securing a new downtown arena. Everything looks promising for the Senators right now, but they are about to face the most challenging phase of their rebuild as they aim to make the next leap and become a Stanley Cup contender. The Senators have made several missteps along the way, and they would do well to learn from franchises that have already achieved what Ottawa is striving for.

There are many lessons the Senators can learn from the teams that achieved success, and the same applies to those that failed in their rebuilds. When it comes to success stories, look no further than the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and their intrastate rival Tampa Bay Lightning, who have accounted for four of the last six champions, as well as the Colorado Avalanche, who won the title in 2022, and the Pittsburgh Penguins, the first team in the salary cap era to win back-to-back Stanley Cups. All of these teams had promising cores before winning titles, and they all faced heartbreaking moments on their way to glory. While their stories share similar elements, each franchise had a different blueprint for building Stanley Cup-caliber rosters, and these are frameworks Ottawa could consider as it aims to take the next step.

Regarding a comparison between Ottawa’s roster and those four mentioned clubs, there is one main difference. Ottawa has secured its young core of top picks long-term (Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot), just as Pittsburgh, Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Florida have. Some might dismiss this comparison, arguing that Ottawa doesn’t share the same reputation as those teams. However, it wasn’t that long ago that Florida was considered an afterthought, and both Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay faced challenges at the bottom of the standings before they built their teams around top picks.

What Ottawa can examine is how those four teams built their championship squads without relying solely on making top draft picks. Each team clearly demonstrates the importance of selecting the top picks correctly, but beyond that, they each employed a unique strategy to develop their rosters around those key players.

For Tampa Bay, its elite scouting allowed it to draft top players outside of the first round. The Lightning selected Brayden Point in the third round in 2014, Nikita Kucherov in the second round in 2011, and Anthony Cirelli in the third round in 2015. These players supported top picks Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman and helped propel Tampa Bay to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and two championships. Former Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman adopted a tactic from the 1990s Detroit Red Wings teams by delaying the development of their prospects, choosing to let them develop longer in the AHL rather than rushing them to the NHL.

Florida didn’t draft as well as the Lightning but chose instead to rely on trades to build around their top picks, bringing in Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Sam Reinhart in major moves that strengthened Aaron Ekblad and Aleksander Barkov. The Tkachuk trade, in particular, was a significant gamble by general manager Bill Zito, and it was not well-received at the time it was made. However, it’s been a crucial move for Florida, and it ended up being the one that truly pushed them over the line. The Panthers also used free agency and waivers to bolster their team, signing Carter Verhaeghe and Sergei Bobrovsky as UFAs and acquiring Gustav Forsling off waivers. The Bobrovsky signing was widely criticized when it happened, but it has again panned out as a gamble worth taking.

The Penguins, much like the Panthers, used a variety of tools to build their championship rosters after years of poor drafting, bad trades, and signings for depth. By the time Jim Rutherford took over the Penguins in 2014, most people felt that Pittsburgh had wasted the primes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, and in 2015, another first-round exit made many believe the critics were right. The Penguins only had one championship with their core, and calls from fans were to trade Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang. However, Rutherford chose a different path, bringing in star scoring winger Phil Kessel in a significant trade with the Maple Leafs that could have ended in disaster. However, it didn’t, and Rutherford continued to make moves, adding forwards Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin, as well as defensemen Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz. These moves, along with some strong late picks from former GM Ray Shero (Bryan Rust and Matt Murray), set the Penguins up for a two-year run of excellence.

All of these stories raise several questions for the Senators. When is the right time to be patient versus aggressive? When should they be ruthless or show loyalty? There is no single way to succeed, but all of Colorado, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Florida have identified a clear vision and are committed to it. Tampa Bay was patient and spent a decade building the foundation for an incredible run of success. Colorado was patient as well, choosing to wait for the right moment to make trades that would boost their stars (Devon Toews).

Pittsburgh and Florida, on the other hand, were proactive in their effort to win now. There were no half measures. Rutherford would quickly correct a mistake in roster assessment for the Penguins if he felt it wasn’t a fit. By the end of his tenure, that kind of behaviour became comical, but between 2015 and 2017, it was like lightning in a bottle.

For Florida, Zito and his team have been aggressive yet precise, acquiring players who have struggled elsewhere and fitting them into the Panthers’ lineup where they can succeed. Forsling and Verhague were both traded between several teams before ending up in Florida. Now, they are vital pieces of a potential dynasty.

Ottawa is at a crossroads and must decide on its next step. Should they be patient with their prospects in Belleville, or is that not the best approach given their weak farm system? This could mean trading young players and draft picks to secure immediate help. Does GM Steve Staios have the courage for a bold move? It’s possible, especially since he recently traded Josh Norris for Dylan Cozens at the NHL Trade Deadline, but he needs to be careful not to compromise too much of the team’s identity.

Ottawa also needs to improve the depth of its lineup. Their bottom six haven’t been strong for a while, and there’s a lesson to learn from the teams that win titles. Florida’s bottom six is built for speed and toughness. Tampa Bay would find depth that’s tailored for the playoffs, while the Penguins’ teams rolled four lines with speed that could dominate teams through an aggressive forecheck on every shift.

While the Senators need to improve their team depth, they must be careful with their spending in free agency, as many of their recent signings have not worked out. The David Perron signing last summer wasn’t successful (two years, $8MM), nor was the Joonas Korpisalo signing the previous summer. The Senators haven’t had much success with UFAs and need to be cautious with their secondary deals, as they will eventually need to sign Shane Pinto and avoid limiting their flexibility, which could quickly close their window to contend.

Ultimately, Ottawa doesn’t need to follow any single path listed above. The Senators can combine elements from each team’s approach and adapt them to their own journey. They can emulate Tampa Bay’s patience in development, while reflecting Pittsburgh’s commitment to their core identity and pursuing bold, fearless trades like the Panthers. There are many routes the Senators could take as they aim to progress, but the key will be committing to a clear strategy rather than just relying on talent to develop and improve naturally over time.

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