Salary Cap Deep Dive

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

August 25, 2017 at 8:47 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $71,949,444 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pavel Buchnevich (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Anthony DeAngelo (Two years remaining, $863K)
D Brady Skjei (One year remaining, $925K)
F Jimmy Vesey (One year remaining, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

DeAngelo: $400K
Vesey: $2.85MM

Total: $3.25MM

Vesey, the top prize out of the 2016 August free agent group, got off to a strong start with New York but tailed off as the season progressed. Now that he has gone through a full professional season, expectations will be higher and if he can live up to them, he’ll get a nice boost on his next deal. Buchnevich was held back by injuries for a good chunk of last year but he should be in line for a bigger role next season.

Skjei was a major bright spot in 2016-17. Although he had just 12 games of NHL experience (regular season and playoffs) heading into the year, he wound up locking down a regular spot and was extremely productive from the third pairing with 39 points (5-34-39) in 80 games. If he comes even close to that next season, he will be in line for a significant raise. DeAngelo now finds himself with his third organization since June of 2016. He was productive at times in a limited role with Arizona last year but there’s no guarantee he locks down a full-time spot. If he winds up going back and forth between the Rangers and the AHL’s Wolf Pack, he might be a player who takes a smaller NHL AAV next summer in exchange for more guaranteed money (or a one-way deal).

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F David Desharnais ($1MM, UFA)
F Michael Grabner ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Kevin Hayes ($2.6MM, RFA)
D Nick Holden ($1.65MM, UFA)
F J.T. Miller ($2.75MM, RFA)
G Ondrej Pavelec ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Matt Puempel ($725K, RFA)
F Rick Nash ($7.8MM, UFA)

Nash is by far the most notable name on this list. His production has nosedived the past two years (injuries haven’t helped either) but he still has the reputation of being a quality goal scorer. He hasn’t lived up to his contract and shouldn’t land close to that in free agency but even though he’ll be 34 next summer, he’s likely to garner a fair amount of interest based on his reputation alone. It was noted earlier today that no extension talks have taken place between Nash and the team.

As for the other forwards, Miller is wrapping up his bridge deal in 2017-18 and expectations will be high. Not only is he coming off of a career year, he will also be asked to take on more of the load with Derek Stepan now in Arizona. It’s certainly reasonable to think that he could double his current deal if he eclipses the 50 point mark again. Hayes is in a similar situation and is also coming off of a career season with 49 points. He is also likely to shift up a notch with Stepan gone which can only bode well for his next deal. Grabner was a pleasant surprise as he finished second in goals last season on a team-friendly contract. He has been hot and cold over his career but another 20-goal campaign would make him a much more coveted player next summer. Desharnais was added to give them some extra depth down the middle while they wait for their prospects while Puempel will once again attempt to lock down a regular spot on the fourth line.

Holden struggled with Colorado but saw his fortunes take a turn for the better with New York. He set career highs across the board offensively and cemented himself as a top-four option. His name has been involved in trade speculation throughout the summer as someone they could move to find a replacement for Stepan but being a rental player that should land a bigger deal next summer, his value around the rest of the league may not be as high as it should be based on the way he played last season. If he makes it to free agency, he’ll be in line for a considerable pay increase.

With Antti Raanta also being moved to the Coyotes, the Rangers moved quickly to bring Ondrej Pavelec in as their new backup goalie. He’s coming off a rough year that saw him spend a long time in the minor leagues but on a new team and lower expectations than he had with Winnipeg, he’s a good candidate to bounce back.

Two Years Remaining

D Ryan McDonagh ($4.7MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($4.5MM, UFA)

There aren’t many players here but they’re prominent ones. Zuccarello was more or less an afterthought going back to 2012-13 but since then he has been consistently productive, averaging 57 points over the past four years. Even though he’s undersized, that won’t stop him from being highly sought after if he makes it to the open market.

McDonagh has been a dependable workhorse on the blueline for a long time and has cracked 40 points as well in two of the last four years. He’s still a legitimate top pairing defender and will be 30 once he’s eligible for free agency. At that age, he could very well land another six-year deal at a higher rate than he’s getting now.

Three Years Remaining

F Jesper Fast ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Chris Kreider ($4.625MM, UFA)

After not being able to agree to terms on a longer-term deal last summer, Kreider and the Rangers avoided arbitration by basically meeting in the middle with a four-year pact. That lines him up to hit the open market at 29 and power forwards like him are always in high demand. Fast saw his numbers decline last year but he’s still a capable third liner that’s locked up at a reasonable rate for the foreseeable future.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5MM through 2020-21)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($6.65MM through 2020-21)
D Brendan Smith ($4.35MM through 2020-21)
D Marc Staal ($5.7MM through 2020-21)
F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM through 2021-22)

Zibanejad’s deal is still quite fresh as it was signed just one month ago. With Stepan gone, the 24-year-old will have a chance to push for a regular spot on the top line and if he can pull that off and produce like a number one, this will be a bargain pretty quickly.

Shattenkirk turned down more money and term to land with his preferred team in the Rangers. He’ll provide them with a big boost offensively from the back end while strengthening their top four. Smith fit in well after being acquired from Detroit around the trade deadline and his contract slots in around what a typical second pairing player gets in free agency although he doesn’t bring much to the table in the attacking zone. Staal’s contract has been nothing short of a disaster to the point where it appears they’ve at least considered buying him out. His reputation was that he was a strong shutdown player but that hasn’t been the case in recent years. He can log minutes but not much else which is going to make this a rough contract to move.

Lundqvist’s deal stood up as the richest for a goalie before Montreal’s Carey Price signed his extension last month. He’s 35 and is coming off his worst statistical season in the NHL. If it was just an off year and he reverts back to his normal numbers it won’t be an issue but if 2016-17 represented the beginning of a downswing, this also has the potential to be a problem contract down the road.

Buyouts

D Dan Girardi ($2.61MM in 2017-18, $3.61MM in 2018-19/2019-20, $1.61MM from 2020-21 through 2022-23)
C Brad Richards (compliance buyout so no cap hit; payments to be made through 2025-26)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Miller
Worst Value: Staal

Looking Ahead

As things stand, New York is in a good spot cap-wise this season while they have $51.6MM committed to 11 players for 2018-19. A good chunk of that money will need to go to new deals for Miller, Hayes, Vesey, and Skjei which will make it a challenge to keep Nash or Holden in the fold or find replacements.

The biggest test will come in 2019-20 when McDonagh and Zuccarello are set to hit the open market. Both of them are likely to command sizable raises and the team already has a little over $40MM tied up in just seven players, an amount that will assuredly jump when the above group sign their next contracts. Will GM Jeff Gorton be able to keep the entire core together at that time? That might prove to be a bit too much of a challenge without moving at least one key player out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

August 23, 2017 at 7:31 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $57,799,166 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Sebastian Aho (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Noah Hanifin (One year remaining, $925K)
D Brett Pesce (One year remaining, $809K)
D Jaccob Slavin (One year remaining, $743K)

Potential Bonuses

Aho: $850K
Hanifin: $850K
Pesce: $33K
Slavin: $133K

Total: $1.865MM

Carolina hasn’t wasted much time handing out some early extensions to their blueliners as Slavin received a seven-year, $37.1MM deal while Pesce inked a six-year pact worth $24.125MM in total earlier this offseason. Both deals will kick in for 2018-19. That locked up two of their core defenders through the rest of their RFA-eligible seasons plus three and two years respectively of their UFA eligibility.

As for the third defenseman on the list, the team has also expressed an interest in getting another contract for Hanifin done although there have been no formal discussions yet on one. The former fifth overall pick has played a regular role in his first two seasons but hasn’t progressed a lot and as a result, he’s more likely to wait until next offseason to sign.

Aho had a very productive rookie season that went under the radar thanks to some of the other well-known freshmen. He has already established himself as a legitimate top-six winger and if that carries over for the next two seasons, he’ll be in great shape to continue the trend of bypassing the bridge deal and landing a long-term, big money contract, something that GM Ron Francis is clearly comfortable doing.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Klas Dahlbeck ($850K, RFA)
F Josh Jooris ($775K, UFA)
F Elias Lindholm ($2.7MM, RFA)
F Joakim Nordstrom ($1.275MM, RFA)
F Derek Ryan ($1.425MM, UFA)
F Lee Stempniak ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($825K, RFA)
G Cam Ward ($3.3MM, UFA)

Lindholm has yet to take the big leap offensively that the team has been hoping for and as a result, he’s still more of a second line center. Even if he hovers around the 40-50 point range again in 2017-18 though, he’ll have a chance to potentially double his AAV with the demand for quality players down the middle. Stempniak was basically a placeholder for some of their younger players last year and will do so once again. At this stage, it’s more likely that he’s traded in-season over signing a new deal. If there’s ever such a thing as a bridge contract for a 30-year-old, Ryan has it. He was off the radar just two years ago but more than held his own last season. If he can repeat that this season, he’ll hit the market with a much stronger case to market to other teams. Nordstrom and Jooris are likely to hold down depth roles and their next deals (or those for their replacements) will come in around the same amount.

The Hurricanes quietly added van Riemsdyk from the Golden Knights after expansion and he’ll have a chance to fortify their third pairing which suits him quite well. While his potentially lower ice time will hurt his bargaining power, he’ll still be in line to at least double his salary with arbitration rights while sitting within a year of unrestricted free agency next summer.

Ward has been with Carolina since they drafted him back in 2002 but his time with the team may be coming to an end. His numbers the past several seasons have been rather pedestrian which played a big role in them trading for a new starter this offseason. Regardless of where he winds up for 2018-19, he’s likely in line for a notable pay cut, especially when the free agent market looks like it will have several players in his situation next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

F Marcus Kruger ($3.083MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($888K, RFA)
F Jeff Skinner ($5.725MM, UFA)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($2.86MM, RFA)
F Justin Williams ($4.5MM, UFA)

It took a while but Skinner finally matched his rookie season output, tallying a strong 63 points last season. Assuming he stays healthy, he’s slotted in on their top line and if he maintains that pace over the next two years, he’ll be a very intriguing free agent who will also be one of the youngest on the market. Williams should give their secondary scoring a nice boost in the short-term but he turns 36 before the season starts so he’s not a long-term piece. Teravainen improved on his production from his time in Chicago but didn’t exactly thrive with the Hurricanes which resulted in a bridge deal for him. He’ll be pegged for a notable raise if he can continue to approach the 50 point plateau. Kruger is another former Blackhawk (there are a few on this team) and while he’ll shore up the fourth line, they’re paying a premium for him in cap space to do so. His salary is lower than the cap charge in both years though which is notable for a budget team. McGinn has been up and down in the past two years but since he needs waivers, he’ll likely stick for the full season but as a depth player, it’s hard to project any substantial increase on his next contract.

Three Years Remaining

D Justin Faulk ($4.083MM, UFA)

This won’t come up for a while but it will be interesting to see if the team has the money (in the budget; they’ll have the cap room) to keep Faulk in the fold. He’ll be set to hit the market at 28 and between that and the Slavin deal coming in at $5.3MM, Faulk is going to be looking to surpass that and then some. He has quietly become one of the top scoring threats from the back end in the entire league so the demand should certainly be there if he gets to free agency.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Scott Darling ($4.125MM through 2020-21)
D Brett Pesce ($4.05MM through 2023-24)
F Victor Rask ($4MM through 2021-22)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM through 2024-25)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM through 2022-23)

Staal’s contract was the one he signed upon being acquired on draft night from Pittsburgh back in 2012. His offensive game hasn’t progressed like they had hoped for but he’s still a solid second line center that can go up against the top line of the opponents so it’s still not a particularly bad contract. Rask skipped over the bridge deal and he too is a strong second line center so far (Carolina may not have a true number one center but they have a few good second line ones). As a result, he looks like he’ll be a bargain for the next half-decade.

The two blueliners were already covered earlier so let’s turn the focus to Darling, their big offseason acquisition. It was only a few years ago that he was on a minor league deal with Montreal’s ECHL team but in his time with Chicago, he has become one of the more dependable backups in the league. If he can carry that level of play over as a starter, he’ll be a major bargain. If he falters with a full-season workload as a starter though, they’ll be back at square one when it comes to trying to find dependable goaltending.

Buyouts

F Alexander Semin ($2.33MM per year through 2020-21)
D James Wisniewski ($1MM in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

G Eddie Lack ($1.375MM in 2017-18)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Rask (among non-ELC players)
Worst Value: Kruger

Looking Ahead

For quite a while now, Carolina has been a team that spends closer to the floor than to the Upper Limit so from a cap perspective, they’re in really good shape (although they are just one contract under the maximum of 50 at the moment). If the proposed sale goes through, it will be interesting to see if they start to become a higher-spending team. If that happens, they’ll be well poised to add another key piece or two to a strong, young core which would put them in good shape for the long haul.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

August 20, 2017 at 4:16 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 2 Comments

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $70,910,107 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jakub Vrana ($863K, two years remaining)

This is where the Capitals have gotten themselves into trouble. Playing to win it all for the last couple of years has taken a toll on the depth of the team’s roster as they have chosen to go with veterans rather than allow youngsters to work their way into the lineup. Now that those contracts have become too much and the team has had to purge a number of free agents to stay under the cap, suddenly there is no depth to look to when they really need it.

Vrana, a former 2014 first-rounder returned to his team in Sweden after being drafted, but signed at the end of the 2015 season and joined the AHL Hershey Bears for three games, tallying five assists. He then added six points in 10 playoff games to establish himself as a top prospect. He scored 35 goals over the next two seasons in Hershey before being promoted to Washington last year. In 21 games, he tallied three goals and three assists and appears ready to step in to a bottom line role this year.

There are a number of minor leaguers that may be ready to step into the lineup such as defenders Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos, but none have seen any NHL action so far in their careers and there is no guarantee they will make the team out of training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D John Carlson ($3.96MM, UFA)
F Lars Eller ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Tom Wilson ($2.0MM, RFA)
F Jay Beagle ($1.75MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Taylor Chorney ($800K, UFA)
F Devante Smith-Pelly ($650K, RFA)

The team has already lost several key defenseman in the past few months, including Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt and Karl Alzner. Could Carlson be next? While the team still has several veteran remaining on their roster, the team might be hard-pressed to avoid losing another veteran defenseman. Currently penciled in to play next to Orlov, at 27 years old, he would be a big loss if the team is unable to bring him back. However, the team will be paying Orpik, Niskanen and Orlov, more than $16MM combined next year. Will Washington find the money for Carlson?

Wilson is a player who the Capitals have high hopes for. The 23-year-old wing is a former 2012 first-rounder and has played four years with the team already, usually among the bottom-tier lines. However, with smoe of the team’s losses on offense, including Marcus Johanson and Justin Williams, this might be the year that Wilson breaks out. He is currently penciled in on the team’s second line and while he managed just seven goals a year ago, he did put up three playoff goals, showing he might be ready for an enhanced role. As a restricted free agent in 2018, the team will have some control on managing his salary.

Perhaps one of the more interesting decisions the team must make is what they plan to do with their backup goalie. Grubauer is considered to be one of the top-young goaltending prospects and while he was not chosen by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft, many feel that he could be a solid starting goaltender. However, with Holtby in front of him and locked up for three more years, that role would not likely be given to Grubauer in Washington. With minor leaguer Pheonix Copley looking ready to become the team’s backup and the presence of 2014 second-round prospect Vitek Vanacek and 2015 first-round prospect Ilya Samsonov, the team is loaded with goaltending talent. It seems far more likely the team will move Grubauer at some point, maybe at the trade deadline next season to add much needed depth.

Eller is at best a third line center, who averages between 10 and 15 goals per season. Barring a breakout year and he’s already 28 years old so that seems unlikely, Eller at $3.5MM might be too expensive to bring back in a year, but it’s too early to tell. Beagle did have a career year last year and should challenge Eller for that third-line center job with the loser likely to man the fourth line. Beagle, a faceoff specialist, scored 13 goals last year. If the team can bring them back on relatively cheap deals, they might be able to retain them.

Chorney was used primarily as an extra defenseman last year and only managed 18 games last season. With the team’s lack of depth after their top four, Washington may have no choice but to give Chorney a chance to win one of the last spots. The 30-year-old did manage to get into 55 games a year ago. Smith-Pelly, a quiet free agent acquisition this offseason, scored four goals in 55 games for New Jersey last year. Their futures will be decided by whether they make the team and how they perform.

Two Years Remaining

D Brooks Orpik ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Andre Burakovsky ($3MM, RFA)
F Brett Connolly ($1.5MM, UFA)

At 36 now and 38 years old when his contract expires, Orpik’s days could be numbered. While he’s never been a major offensive presence, his defense has helped anchor a Capitals team for several years since coming over from Pittsburgh, but his skills are already beginning to diminish and this deal is considered by many to be one of the worst deals the Caps have made over the last few years.

The player to keep an eye on is Burakovsky, who many believe might have a breakout season now that the team has lightened their forward depth. Burakovsky, a first-round pick in 2013, has 38 goals and 95 points in three seasons and is currently expected to move onto the team’s second line. In two years, he should be a restricted free agent and could ask for quite a contract if he can put together a couple of big seasons for the Capitals. Connolly is another player for the team to keep their eyes on. While the 25-year-old wing had a career year with Washington this year (15 goals, 23 assists), but the team will need to see what he does over the next two before awarding him another deal.

Three Years Remaining

F Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($6.1MM, UFA)

Both players would seem like obvious candidates to be brought back in three years, but there are a lot of factors that determine that. Backstrom will be 33, while Holtby will be 30, so both should still be in their prime. Backstrom’s 23 goals and more importantly, 63 assists were critical to the Capitals success this last year, while Holtby is the cornerstone in goal. There is no guarantee that any youth will step in and supplant them although the Capitals are strong in goaltending depth.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Alex Ovechkin ($9.54MM through 2020-21)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)
D Matt Niskanen ($5.75MM through 2020-21)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM through 2022-23)

The Capitals have a great core and the team has obviously planned to put most of their money and years towards Kuznetsov, Oshie and Orlov as well as Ovechkin and Niskanen.

The team’s success has revolved around Ovechkin since the day he was drafted and little will change. He is locked up for another four seasons and no one would be surprised if they brought him back after that at age 35. Even though there was some trade chatter about moving on from their star, Washington will likely do everything it can over the next four years to compete for a championship. However, Ovechkin didn’t fare as well this year. After three 50-goal seasons, the 31-year-old wing dropped to a 33-goal season. Still great, but not his usual standard. Can he take his game back to that previous level?

The team then inked three of their stars to long-term deals this offseason. Kuznetsov is just 25 and should be solid for years, but was he worth $7.8MM per season? That’s a lot of money for good, but not great production. He suffered a down year compared to his 2015-16 season, but he’s coming off a 19 goal, 40 assist season, the Capitals have to hope he can take his game to the next level and fill in the offense they will lose this year. Otherwise that’s a lot of money spent on an average center.

Orlov also was extended this offseason. The 26-year-old defenseman signed a six-year, $30.6MM deal to remain with Washington. He finished the season with six goals and 33 points and may be ready to take over the defensive reigns. Many people thought Oshie would leave during free agency due to the Capitals’ cap issues, but the team found a way to keep the 30-year-old forward, signing him to an eight-year extension at $5.75MM. Whether he will be worth that much in his late 30s is unknown, but his 33 goals last year was a career high.

Niskanen remains solid on defense and will be needed even more with some of the offensive losses. The 30-year-old defenseman put up another solid season, scoring five goals and 34 assists for 39 points.

Buyouts

None

Best Value: Backstrom
Worst Value: Kuznetsov

Looking Ahead

The Capitals are a well-run franchise that has done an excellent job of spending money on their core of stars, while drafting well enough to have talent ready to go. They may have overreached themselves this past year as they lost quite a bit of talent and have several gaping holes on defense, but the team seems to have put together a great team that just has not been able to get themselves to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Ovechkin still has a number of years left, so expect the Capitals to be aggressive and make moves to add more scoring and more defense over the next year or two. Don’t be shocked to see a goaltender get moved to make room for their prospects, but also to find new talent they can plug into their lineup.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

August 19, 2017 at 1:43 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $77,479,167 (over the $75MM Upper Limit and using offseason LTIR)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mitch Marner (Two years remaining, $894K)
F Auston Matthews (Two years remaining, $925K)
F William Nylander (One year remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Marner: $850K
Matthews: $2.85MM
Nylander: $850K

Total: $4.55MM

To put it lightly, this is quite the formidable group of top youngsters that have already established themselves as high quality NHL players with more improvements expected. It’s great news for their current cap situation as those bargains have allowed the team to keep the rest of the previous core together while having those three under control for at least five more years each through restricted free agency makes them the envy of many teams around the league.

However, the inevitable downside to this is that all three players will be in line for massive raises at the expiration of their current deals. The prospect of all of them hitting their bonuses is very much realistic which creates the potential of having to use the bonus cushion once again and eat the cap charge in 2018-19. They’re doing this now for 2016-17’s bonuses to the tune of over $5MM.

It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see GM Lou Lamoriello try to at least sign one of them to an early extension. Of the three, only Nylander is eligible to do so now as Matthews and Marner can’t sign until next July. ‘Cost certainty’ is viewed by some as an evil term in the NHL given how often it was uttered during the 2004-05 lockout but Toronto undoubtedly needs to have a sense of how much these three will cost in the years to come to know what they can and can’t do with some of their other players.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Bozak ($4.2MM, UFA)
D Connor Carrick ($750K, RFA)
F Eric Fehr ($2MM, UFA)
F Joffrey Lupul ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Josh Leivo ($613K, RFA)
D Martin Marincin ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Dominic Moore ($1MM, UFA)
F Ben Smith ($650K, UFA)
F Nikita Soshnikov ($737K, RFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($4.25MM, UFA)

Lupul is one of two players that are likely LTIR-bound (they haven’t said which one was already placed there in July). It’s safe to say he won’t be back. Fehr was added in a deal that basically bought Toronto a fourth round pick and he’s not in their long-term plans. After that though, things get interesting. Van Riemsdyk is coming off of a career year and if he can even come close to repeating that production this coming season, he’ll likely be one of the most coveted forwards in free agency next summer. Bozak has settled in nicely as a quality second line center and he too will be in line for a raise. Komarov has shown that he can play a rugged checking game and chip in offensively. He too will attract plenty of interest if he hits the open market. Leivo played sparingly last year but made an impact when he was in the lineup; it will be interesting to see if they can find more of a regular spot for him this season. Soshnikov could be up-and-down thanks to his waiver exemption and his next contract shouldn’t be a big jump while Moore and Smith are likely one year placeholders.

On the back end, if Marincin stays healthy for the full season and continues to hold his own averaging around 18 minutes a night, he’ll be in better shape to command a bigger deal with arbitration eligibility. Carrick rates well in some of the advanced stats but unless he takes a step forward in terms of his production, he’ll likely have to settle for another fairly cheap deal next summer.

Two Years Remaining

D Jake Gardiner ($4.05MM, UFA)
D Ron Hainsey ($3MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($850K, UFA)

Gardiner continues to play a bigger role each season and is coming off a career year with 42 points and a 21:32 ATOI. His contract raised a few eyebrows when it was signed but now it’s a nice bargain for at least two more years. Hainsey was brought in to stabilize the back end and he has shown he can still log big minutes. It sounds like he’s going to get a chance to start on their top pairing so expectations will be somewhat high.

As for McElhinney, he did enough after joining the team in a midseason waiver claim to earn an extension. The contract is cheap enough that he can be buried in the minors without any cap charge should a potential upgrade present itself or if he gets off to a slow start again in 2017-18.

Three Years Remaining

F Nathan Horton ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Patrick Marleau ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)

Horton is the other LTIR-bound Leaf and he has all but announced his retirement already. With his contract being uninsured, they’re not going to be able to find another spot for him so they’ll just have to eat his deal. Marleau’s addition came as a surprise to many after spending nearly two decades in San Jose. He’s still a legitimate top-six forward and should give an already strong offense that much more of a boost. The third year may wind up being an issue down the road but for the short-term, he’ll be a key addition. Martin won’t bring much offensively to the table but is one of the NHL’s most physical players and is more than willing to drop the gloves when necessary. Because of the lack of offensive upside, his deal may be somewhat hard to move but at the same time, they want him around in the hopes of protecting their young stars.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Frederik Andersen ($5MM through 2020-21)
F Zach Hyman ($2.25MM through 2020-21)
F Nazem Kadri ($4.5MM through 2021-22)
D Morgan Rielly ($5MM through 2021-22)
D Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5MM through 2023-24)

Kadri really broke through last season, scoring 32 times despite only ever hitting the 20-goal mark once in the past. In doing so, he has solidified himself as a part of their core for the long-term and if he can continue to produce around that pace moving forward, it will wind up as a team-friendly contract given the demand for top-six pivots at the moment. Hyman spent the majority of last season alongside Matthews and while he won’t be a big scorer at the NHL level, his all-around game clearly endeared himself to head coach Mike Babcock.

While plenty of players stood out last year, Rielly wasn’t one of them. That isn’t to say that he played particularly poorly but the team was undoubtedly hoping that he would continue to improve. He will once again enter the season as their top defender and they’ll be expecting big things from him. As for Zaitsev, he became an impact player right away, earning that seven-year extension before he even finished his first NHL season. If he can continue to capably hold down a top-four spot, it shouldn’t be a bad contract over the long haul.

Andersen’s first season with the Maple Leafs was a strong one. He’s being paid less than some of the more prominent names out there and as Toronto’s (mostly) young defense corps continues to improve, it stands to reason that his numbers should get a bit better as well, giving them an above average goalie at a bit of a bargain price.

Buyouts

D Jared Cowen ($750K in 2017-18)
D Tim Gleason ($1.33MM in 2017-18)
F Mikhail Grabovski (Compliance buyout so no cap hit, payments to be made through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Phil Kessel ($1.2MM through 2021-22)

Still To Sign

F Connor Brown

Best Value: Matthews
Worst Value: Horton (due to his deal being uninsured), Fehr among active players

Looking Ahead

Get used to hearing Toronto and ‘tight to the cap’ in the same sentence for a while. They’ll be okay once the season starts and in-season LTIR opens up a bit of space but most of that will go to Brown; there isn’t going to be a lot of flexibility. The first of their major new contracts will come next summer while the new deals to Matthews and Marner could cost the team an extra $15MM (or more) the following year.

The Leafs are fairly well positioned from the standpoint that they have a lot of expiring deals next July so they shouldn’t have to trade away any of their signed players in the offseason to free up room. But as far as having the best collection of talent available goes though, 2017-18 may be their best chance to really contend as they’ll have to let some of their current veterans go to accommodate the big raises that are on the horizon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

August 17, 2017 at 6:19 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $71,149,167 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Brayden Point (Two years remaining, $687K)
D Mikhail Sergachev (Three years remaining, $894K)

If there was any upside to the injury woes that the Lightning suffered last season, it was the opportunity provided to Point to show that he can be a productive NHL player already. He wound up producing like a second line forward in his rookie campaign but may be a bit lower on the depth chart when everyone’s healthy. If he can come close to duplicating his 40 points in 2017-18, it wouldn’t be surprising to see contract extension talks open up next summer.

Sergachev was picked up in the Jonathan Drouin trade just prior to expansion and should be given a long look in training camp. However, Tampa has seven other defenders on the roster and Sergachev has another year of junior eligibility remaining so it’s not a guarantee he makes the team. If he does, he’ll likely start in a third pairing role with the potential to move up later on.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F J.T. Brown ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Erik Condra ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($800K, RFA)
F Chris Kunitz ($2MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($1.938MM, RFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($813K, RFA)
D Andrej Sustr ($1.95MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Kunitz: $1MM
Point: $258K
Sergachev: $850K

Total: $2.108MM

Up front, Kunitz was brought in to try to help replace some of Drouin’s offense while giving them another veteran voice as well. It will be interesting to see how he performs away from the Penguins; if he shows he can do so, he should be able to land a similar deal next summer. Namestnikov is coming off of a bit of a down year but before that was showing signs of being a top-six forward. If he can rebound, he’ll be in line for a nice raise but if not, he could become available in a trade with Tampa having several quality prospects in the system. Paquette’s production has stagnated in the teens so while he’s a decent checker, he shouldn’t command a big raise next summer. Brown is coming off a dreadful season and could see his roster spot usurped by a prospect before too long while Condra cleared waivers last year and could do so once again come October.

Defensively, Sustr has somewhat quietly carved out a regular role for himself on the third pairing. However, he may price himself out of a spot next summer as GM Steve Yzerman could look for a cheaper replacement to save some money as his cap hit is starting to get high for someone who’s primarily a depth option. Koekkoek has yet to lock down a full-time roster spot but as he’s now waiver eligible, he’ll likely get a longer look this time. He’s on a one-year ‘show me’ contract and if he can land a regular role, he’ll set himself up for a pay bump next summer.

Two Years Remaining

G Peter Budaj ($1.025MM, UFA)
D Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM, UFA)
D Jake Dotchin ($813K, RFA)
D Dan Girardi ($3MM, UFA)
F Yanni Gourde ($1MM, UFA)
F Nikita Kucherov ($4.77MM, RFA)
D Anton Stralman ($4.5MM, UFA)

The Lightning’s cap situation basically pushed them in the direction of giving Kucherov a shorter-term deal and while they’ll enjoy the benefits of that for a couple more years, they’ll be paying for afterwards. Kucherov finished fifth in NHL scoring last season and he has established himself as a top flight talent. Yzerman is likely hoping he can get Kucherov to leave a bit of money on the table as his other top stars did but even if that happens, it’s still going to be a significant jump. Gourde finished last season on a strong note and turned that into a multi-year deal despite only having two games of NHL experience coming into 2016-17.

Although his production took a dip last year, Stralman has still been a key cog on Tampa’s back end. His playing style fits in well with a shift towards a more mobile blueline which should make him highly coveted if he makes it back to the open market. Coburn’s contract raised many eyebrows when it was signed and it’s one they’d undoubtedly like to move now. Even though there are two years left, it’s pretty safe to guess the team will be looking elsewhere when it’s done (while earmarking a big chunk of that for Kucherov’s raise). The Lightning moved quickly to sign Girardi which also caught some off guard but they envision him as a reliable stay-at-home player. If he plays like he did with the Rangers last year though, that contract won’t be that easy to move. Dotchin was a regular in the second half of the season after being brought up from the minors which earned him a one-way contract. If he stays as a regular in 2017-18, his deal should be a bit of a bargain.

Last season was quite a turnaround for Budaj. He was expected to be the third stringer for the Kings but the Jonathan Quick injury gave him an NHL spot and he made the most of it, earning a two-year extension in June after joining Tampa in the Ben Bishop trade. It’s not often that a veteran goalie goes from being an expected minor league call-up to having a multi-year deal with guaranteed NHL money.

Three Years Remaining

F Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM, UFA)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($3.5MM, RFA)

Hip problems sidelined Callahan for the majority of last season and made his contract that much worse. He’s only two years removed from a 54 point season and if he could even come close to that production, they’d be happy. If not, Callahan’s contract will continue to be one of the more challenging contracts to try to trade.

Vasilevskiy is now the undisputed starter with Bishop gone. If he can play as a legitimate number one netminder, this contract has the potential to be a bargain for them. He was up-and-down last season when put in that situation so it will be worth watching to see if he’s more consistent this year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM through 2024-25)
F Tyler Johnson ($5MM through 2023-24)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM through 2022-23)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM through 2021-22)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM through 2023-24)

Stamkos took his negotiations right to the onset of free agency before taking what some would suggest was a bit under market value to stay with the Lightning. He’s now fully recovered from his meniscus tear from last season which should make a huge difference for them. Johnson and Palat both signed their deals last month and lock in a big chunk of their secondary scoring for the long term. Killorn has been fairly consistent (he has had between 36-41 points in each of his four full NHL seasons) but with the rest of the firepower they have, his contract stands out as one that they may want to move out to free up some cap room. However, with six years left on it, there probably won’t be a significant market for Killorn.

Hedman wasted little time signing an extension last summer that starts in 2017-18. The contract locks up one of the premier blueliners in the NHL and looks even better following a 72 point season. He’ll be the cornerstone of their back end for a long time to come.

Buyouts

D Matt Carle ($1.833MM through 2019-20)
F Vincent Lecavalier (Compliance buyout so no cap hit, payments to be made through 2026-27)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Kucherov
Worst Value: Callahan

Looking Ahead

The last few summers, the talk has been about the cap trouble that the Lightning have been in. Yzerman has been able to navigate it so far but he’s not entirely out of the woods yet. Tampa Bay has over $42MM committed for 2019-20 to a total of seven players and Kucherov, their top scorer last year, isn’t one of them so there is a lot of work to do for when that deal expires.

Shorter-term, they have room now and they’re not in bad shape for next summer either. They have nearly $62MM on the books to 15 players but there aren’t many key players in need of new deals either so for the time being, there won’t be a looming cap crunch.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

August 16, 2017 at 8:37 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $64,848,335 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry Level Contracts

D Charlie McAvoy (two years remaining, $917K)
D Brandon Carlo (two years remaining, $789K)
F Frank Vatrano (one year remaining, $792.5K)
F Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (two years remaining, $917K)
F Anders Bjork (three years remaining, $925K)

Boston has one of the deeper prospect pipelines in the NHL with upwards of a dozen players in the system on entry-level deals who could earn a call-up before that deal expires. However, this group of five stands the best chance of having a major impact on the Bruins right away in 2017-18.

Carlo, of course, already has a full year under his belt in which he skated in all 82 regular season games and played in over 20 minutes per night, all under the tutelage of one of the best defensive players of his generation: Zdeno Chara. Carlo has already made his #37 overall draft slot look like a steal, but with two more years at under $800K as he develops into a shutdown NHL defender, he could be one of the best blue line bargains in the league.

McAvoy is certainly ready to give Carlo a run for that title though. One of the Calder Trophy favorites for the upcoming season, McAvoy was thrown into the fire last season, making his NHL debut in the Bruins opening round playoff series. McAvoy performed admirably among a ragtag group of replacement players on Boston’s battered blue line and showed that he is more than ready for NHL action. Burning a season off of McAvoy’s ELC was a tough call for GM Don Sweeney and company, but giving McAvoy a taste last year could pay off this year. The former Boston University star and 2016 first-rounder will have all eyes on him in 2017-18.

Burning a year off of Forsbacka Karlsson’s entry-level deal for just one late-season game may have been ill-advised however. The Bruins love “JFK” and his two-way ability and cerebral play at center, with some in the organization and outside observers comparing him to Boston’s own Patrice Bergeron, widely considered the best two-way forward in the game. Those are big expectations to meet, but the Bruins will give Forsbacka Karlsson every chance to earn a regular role this season as they work to develop him into a well-rounded pro. JFK may not have the immediate impact, and expected pay day, of Carlo or McAvoy, but in two years he will certainly be worth more than $917K.

Vatrano has been a revelation for Boston since he was signed as an undrafted free agent, leaving UMass Amherst early in 2015. Vatrano led the AHL in goal scoring in 2015-16 with a stunning 36 goals in 36 games, while tallying 29 points in 83 NHL games along the way as well. Injury and inconsistency slowed down Vatrano’s rapid ascension last season, making 2017-18, his final ELC season, a major year in his career.

Finally, the Bruins were able to convince Bjork, a superstar at Notre Dame and the team’s 2014 fifth-round pick, to leave school early and sign on in Boston. The maximum three-year, $925K per ELC was nice motivation, but the team likely had to promise some play time as well. While Bjork’s spot on the team this season is not set in stone, with fellow high-end prospects Jake DeBrusk, Zach Senyshyn, Peter Cehlarik, and Danton Heinen clamoring for NHL play time, it seems that he’ll certainly get a chance. If the 2016-17 Hobey Baker candidate can find even remotely similar success in the big leagues compared to his past two NCAA seasons, his three-years of production at under $1MM will look mighty nice on the Bruins’ payroll.

One Year Remaining

D Zdeno Chara ($4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Spooner ($2.825MM, RFA)
F Riley Nash ($900K, UFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($1.2MM, UFA)

While it is a relatively painless 2018 free agency class for Boston, the end of Chara’s contract does loom large. The NHL’s tallest man has been the Bruins top defenseman since he signed with the team originally back in 2006 and very well could continue to be next season. It is possible that the Bruins re-sign Chara, whose cap hit drops from nearly $7MM to just $4MM this year, to a more affordable, short-term contract, but the more likely scenario is that the 40-year-old simply retires. He’ll leave the Boston blue line in much better condition than he found it back in ’06, with Torey Krug ready to lead the next wave of McAvoy, Carlo, and prospects like Jakub Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and Uhro Vaakanainen, but his size, strength, experience, and most of all, leadership, will not be easy to replace. The captain’s absence will be felt before the team even takes the ice for 2018-19 and could lead to the Bruins using the cap space Chara leaves behind to explore the free agent market.

Spooner and the Bruins nearly went to salary arbitration this summer, agreeing to terms on a one-year extension the morning of the hearing. Next year could be a very similar situation, whether Spooner performs or not. If Spooner can bounce back from a down 2016-17 season and prove that he is more than just a one-dimensional power play asset, then the Bruins will have to give him a raise on his new $2.825MM deal. If Spooner yet again struggles with the two-way and positional aspects of the game and is overshadowed by the Bruins’ younger talent, Sweeney will have to decide between bringing Spooner back again at a similar price and using up a roster spot or instead trading him away.

Nash and Khudobin, both signed on July 1st, 2016 to affordable two-year deals, also had incredibly similar seasons last year. Both were very disappointing for much of the year before their play picked up toward the end of the season. Going into 2017-18, Nash faces more pressure as he could take on the full responsibility of being the veteran presence on the checking line with Dominic Moore now gone. If Nash rises to the occasion, the Bruins have shown a fondness and loyalty toward their veteran fourth-liners and could reward Nash with an extension and a raise. If not, he’ll be gone. Khudobin also needs to have a big year, with starter Tuukka Rask in need of more rest than he got last season, but if Khudobin flops or if 24-year-old Zane McIntyre continues to light up the AHL, it seems very unlikely that he will re-sign.

Two Years Remaining

D Adam McQuaid ($2.75MM, UFA)

McQuaid has had a great run in Boston, including a Stanley Cup in 2011, but with injury concerns already an issue and Kevan Miller having passed him up on the depth chart with a very similar playing style, there is little doubt that 2018-19 will be McQuaid’s last in Boston. McQuaid will be 32 that year, playing behind Miller, McAvoy, and Carlo on the right side, with the Bruins’ ample defensive depth in the pipeline pushing for play time. Unless he’s willing to take a major pay cut to keep his seventh-man job, McQuaid will be gone.

Three Years Remaining

D Torey Krug ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Kevan Miller ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Matt Beleskey ($3.8MM, UFA)

The Bruins are surely hoping that by 2020 the likes of McAvoy, Carlo, Zboril, Lauzon, Lindgren, Vaakanainen, and a few other additions here and there will make the end of Krug and Miller’s contracts a non-issue. At that time, Miller will be 32, like McQuaid the year before, and could be on the way out. Krug will be just 29, but four of those other defenseman listed are also lefties and could be a better value on ELC’s and bridge deals than what easily could be an extension worth $7MM annually. With that said, Krug could take on a vital leadership role on the blue line after Chara’s departure and that, coupled with his rising offensive numbers each year, could make him a valuable commodity that the B’s would rather keep around beyond his current contract. The same could go for the reliable Miller, who has really rounded out his game recently. Boston showed their true feelings this summer, opting to expose (and subsequently lose) young Colin Miller in the Expansion Draft rather than risk the same fate for Kevan Miller and his reasonable cap hit over three more years. Miller could be kept around as a solid stay-at-home anchor on the bottom pair beyond 2020.

Beleskey had a career year in his first season in Boston and his $3.8MM cap hit seemed well worth it. He then had a disastrous year in his second season, plagued by injury and utter ineffectiveness, and his $3.8MM cap hit was the Bruins’ biggest blemish. If the next season or two go more like last year, then Beleskey is unlikely to even make it to 2020 without being traded or bought out. If he straightens out and returns to near 40-point production, then he will surely play out his contract. Beleskey’s hard-nosed brand of hockey may even make him a fan favorite in Boston if he returns to form, which could lead to an extension. The future of Beleskey in Boston is completely unclear, but 2017-18 will make a major difference.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F David Krejci ($7.25MM through 2020-21)
F David Backes ($6MM through 2020-21)
G Tuukka Rask ($7MM through 2020-21)
F Patrice Bergeron ($6.875MM through 2021-22)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM through 2024-25)

Few teams in the NHL have their core locked up as well as the Bruins do. While both Krejci and Backes are coming off of down years and their expensive cap hits and four more years of term can seem like a burden on Boston, a return to form is expected in 2017-18 and both players have the physical tools to play out their contracts as reliable top-six skaters. Backes would be 37 at the end of his contract and Krejci would be 35, with neither a lock for any extension.

Even if Krejci and Backes continue to put up just modest numbers relative to their chunk of the salary cap, it is hard to compete with the job the Bruins have done locking up Bergeron, Marchand, and Rask.

It is difficult to argue that Bergeron is not the best two-way forward in the game and he may even be the best of all time. He is the undisputed leader of the Bruins’ forward corps and will take his rightful place as captain once Chara retires. Beyond those intangibles, Bergeron is also a consistent 50-60 point scorer. For all that, the Bruins pay less than $7MM per year for five more years. It is undoubtedly one of the best bargains in the NHL. There is also little concern about Bergeron slowing down. He may be the best bet of any player in the NHL to play into his 40’s due to his style and work ethic. Boston surely plans on having him mentor the likes of Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, and Jack Studnicka into two-way stars in their own right. When Bergeron’s contract expires in 2022, he will still be just 37 years old, despite having 19 seasons of NHL experience. The smart money is on Bergeron signing another short-term deal in Boston after his current contract expires and whenever he does call it quits, it seems inevitable that there will be a spot in the rafters at TD Garden with his name on it.

Challenging Bergeron for one of the best contracts in hockey is long-time line mate Marchand. Marchand inked an eight-year, $49MM extension with the Bruins last summer to avoid the drama of impending free agency in 2016-17. However, Marchand then went and shattered his career highs, recording 85 points – 24 more than his best – and finishing in the top five in the NHL in goals and points. Marchand was named a First Team All-Star and even garnered some Hart Trophy consideration. If Marchand had hit the free agent market this off-season, there is no doubt that he would have made $8MM+ on a long-term deal, in Boston or elsewhere, rather than $6.125MM. Marchand has always been considered a talented two-way player with speed and scoring ability, but if he has really taken the next step toward elite NHL scorer, then then next eight years could be pretty special for Boston.

Finally, there’s Rask, who is signed for four more years at $7MM. Rask gets his fair share of criticism, and maybe more than his fair share in New England, but at the end of the day he is an elite goaltender. Many forget that Rask has the best career save percentage in NHL history, not to mention the top goals against average among all active players. While the game has changed over the years and it is hard to compare Rask to some of the greats of earlier years, the stats state that he is the best of all time which at least implies that he is an elite NHL goaltender. Compared to the $10.5MM that Carey Price will be paid starting in 2018-19 and the current contracts for aging keepers Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne, Rask’s deal is a steal and he has shown no signs of deterioration at age 30, making the four remaining years likely to be just as stellar as the past four.

Buyouts

D Dennis Seidenberg ($2.2MM this year, $1.2MM in 2018-19 and 2019-20)

F Jimmy Hayes ($567K this year, $867K next year)

Considering his rebirth with the New York Islanders, the Bruins short-term need on the left side of the defense, and the relatively steep cost of the buyout, cutting Seidenberg was regrettable. The Hayes buyout seems far less likely to leave Bruins fans feeling any regret.

Still To Sign

F David Pastrnak

The Bruins have stated that they will not trade Pastrnak and are looking to extend him long-term. The 21-year-old scorer with three NHL seasons and 123 points already is likely to soon join the list of smart long-term deals signed by Boston. Pastrnak scored 70 points in 75 games in 2016-17 and has 80-90 point upside, even in the conservative Boston offense. Even if it costs the Bruins $8MM per year to sign him for the maximum eight years it will be well worth it. Assets like Pastrnak don’t come around very often and when his eight-year deal expires and he’s still just 29 years old and ready for another eight years of elite production, the Bruins will be glad they did what they had to do to keep him.

Best Value – Brad Marchand

Worst Value – Matt Beleskey (for now)

Looking Ahead

The Bruins have been completely uninvolved in the free agent market this summer thus far, presumably opting instead to give their own young players a shot at roster spots this season. With lots of talent making its way to the pro level, that trend doesn’t seem likely to end any time soon. With their core locked up long term at an affordable rate and cheap young talent to fill out the roster, the Bruins are attempting to do one of the most difficult things in sports: rebuilding on the fly. If it works out, Boston won’t have to deal with a difficult cap crunch for many years. If it doesn’t and the Bruins have to dip into the 2018 free agent market, things could get a little tight.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Ottawa Senators

August 12, 2017 at 10:26 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Hit: $70,187,500 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Thomas Chabot (Three years remaining, $863K)
F Colin White (Two years remaining, $925K)

White signed with the Sens late last season and burned the first year of his ELC in the process although he got into just three games between the regular season and playoffs. As the lone waiver exempt forward on the roster though, he could be a candidate to move back and forth between the NHL and AHL.

Chabot was one of the top junior defencemen in all of the CHL in 2016-17 and many expect him to make the jump to full-time NHL duty, bypassing the AHL altogether. A top-four spot right away would be a tough ask but he should play his way into more minutes as the season progresses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Craig Anderson ($4.2MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Cody Ceci ($2.8MM, RFA)
D Fredrik Claesson ($650K, RFA)
G Andrew Hammond ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Johnny Oduya ($1MM, UFA)
F Mark Stone ($3.5MM, RFA)
F Kyle Turris ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($800K, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Chabot: $360K
Oduya: $1.25MM
White: $360K

Total: $1.97MM

Ottawa may only have two forwards with expiring deals but both are significant. Turris has established himself as a number one center and with that position constantly being in high demand, he is going to command a significant raise in order to forego testing free agency. If he does make it to the open market, the soon-to-be 28-year-old could come close to doubling his current cap hit. Stone has vaulted from a late-round afterthought in the draft into a legitimate top line winger. His next contract will take him to UFA status one way or the other as he will only be a year away from UFA eligibility next summer. Accordingly, GM Pierre Dorion will likely be looking to sign him long-term which will also require a considerable pay increase.

On the back end, Ceci is easily the most prominent of the group that will need to be addressed. While his offensive game hasn’t progressed quite as they had hoped, he has shown himself to be capable of playing big minutes so he will still be in line for a big raise. If Chabot is ready for a big role quickly though, Ceci could be a candidate to be dealt if they need to free up some budget space to keep their forward group intact. Oduya has a good chance to hit at least some of his bonuses (set in five $250K increments depending on ice time, games played, and making the playoffs) so his final cost should come in above his cap hit as well. Borowiecki, Wideman, and Claesson will all battle for playing time at the back of the lineup and their next deals (or ones for replacements) shouldn’t be considerably higher than they are now.

Between the pipes, Anderson is set to enter his walk year, one that he certainly hopes will be a lot more stable after what his wife went through last season. The free agent market for goaltenders next summer doesn’t have a lot of prominent talent so a strong season from Anderson could help him stand out. However, he’ll also be 37 next summer which could cool his market, something that would be to the benefit of the Sens. Hammond had a year to forget as he lost the backup job and then needed surgery to replace a torn labrum in February, ending his season early. He’s expected to make it through waivers but will still carry a cap charge of $325K at the minor league level.

Two Years Remaining

F Alexandre Burrows ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Derick Brassard ($5MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Erik Karlsson ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Tom Pyatt ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Nate Thompson ($1.65MM, UFA)

Brassard is the most notable name among the forwards in this group. He had a quiet first year with Ottawa, seeing his point total drop from 58 to 39 but he should be able to rebound in 2017-18. His future with the team could be at least in part tied to what happens to Turris; if the latter leaves, Brassard would become the number one by default (and gain a lot of negotiating leverage in the process). If Turris stays, it’s understandable to wonder if they’ll be able to afford to keep both pivots around. Dorion has decided to spend more on his bottom-six forward group which is reflected in the deals for players like Burrows and Thompson, who weren’t with the team to start last season. While all four other forwards should play regular roles, the second year in some of the contracts may hurt their short-term flexibility to re-sign the likes of Anderson, Stone, and Turris.

Karlsson’s case will be a fascinating one to follow. He is Ottawa’s undisputed top player and is among the top few defensemen league-wide. While he isn’t a defensive stalwart (though he has made strides there), he’s a high-end point producer, not only for his position but even when compared to forwards. He’ll also be 29 when he becomes UFA-eligible, still in his prime. Accordingly, he is a strong candidate to set a new benchmark for the highest cap hit among NHL rearguards, currently held by Nashville’s P.K. Subban at $9MM. Will Ottawa, considered to be a smaller-market team, be the one to give him that contract?

Three Years Remaining

G Mike Condon ($2.1M, UFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($5.188MM, UFA)
F Clarke MacArthur ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3.1MM, UFA)

It was only a few years ago that Hoffman was a decent AHL player but he has now become a quality top liner, averaging 60 points over the past two seasons. He’s a safe bet to be sticking around in that role for a while. MacArthur’s health situation has been something to watch for as concussion troubles kept him out for most of the year with some doctors recommending he retires. He plans to continue to play but one more concussion would put his career in jeopardy and make him a multi-year LTIR candidate. Pageau should slot in on the third line to start next season but if Brassard or Turris move on in the next couple of years, he could move into the top six.

Condon had himself quite the year in 2016-17. After losing the number two role in Montreal to Al Montoya, he was picked up by Pittsburgh off waivers to serve as short-term depth with Matt Murray on the shelf. Once Murray was healthy, Condon was flipped to Ottawa to play a similar role with Anderson taking a leave of absence. He wound up being a critical part of their season though, tying for the team lead in appearances with 40 while keeping them afloat in the playoff hunt until Anderson returned. He now has one of the pricier contracts for a backup and if Anderson leaves after the season, Condon could be battling for a starting job before long.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Dion Phaneuf ($7MM through 2020-21)
F Bobby Ryan ($7.25MM through 2021-22)
F Zack Smith ($3.25MM through 2020-21)

It’s safe to say that the seven year, $50.75MM contract that was given to Ryan after he had played just a single season in Ottawa hasn’t worked out exactly as intended as he has not been a top line winger. He’s coming off the worst season of his career, one where he managed just 25 points in 62 games. His contract is all but immovable at this point (unless they’re taking an equally bad deal the other way) so he will get plenty of chances to try to turn it around. Smith has gone from a fourth line energy player to a reliable secondary scorer and should slot in as a middle six forward for the foreseeable future.

The Sens were able to add Phaneuf fairly cheap from Toronto back in February of 2016 by taking on the entirety of his contract. While the 32-year-old isn’t playing like the number one blueliner he’s being paid to be, he’s still a serviceable top-four that can log major minutes. However, like Ryan, his contract would be hard to deal at this point which is something they briefly explored prior to the Expansion Draft.

Buyouts

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Turris
Worst Value: Ryan

Looking Ahead

Ottawa has typically been a team that doesn’t come close to spending to the upper limit. They currently are closer to it than they usually are as things currently stand and if they plan to keep the team intact beyond 2017-18, they’re going to have to quickly become a cap-spending squad (or find a way to move out some money). That doesn’t even get them to Karlsson’s walk year which is going to require the biggest commitment in franchise history to keep him around. If owner Eugene Melnyk is willing to greenlight spending to the cap, Dorion should be able to lock up the rest of their core long-term but if not, some cuts to the roster are going to have to come sooner than later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

August 9, 2017 at 6:10 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $66,537,977 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Jakub Jerabek (One year remaining, $925K, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen (Two years remaining, $839K, RFA)

Lehkonen made a strong first impression after coming over from the Swedish League, earning himself a regular spot in the lineup. As the season progressed, his responsibilities started to increase and he spent some time in Montreal’s top six. He should find himself either on the second or third line to start next season.

The Canadiens beat out a handful of other NHL teams to sign the 26-year-old Jerabek back in May. He’s coming off a strong first season in the KHL with Vityaz Podolsk where he finished fifth in points by a defenseman. With Montreal losing their top three left-shot defenders from last season (Andrei Markov to the KHL, Nathan Beaulieu to Buffalo via trade and Alexei Emelin in the Expansion Draft), there is an opening for him to step in and play right away. If he doesn’t make the opening roster, he has a European Assignment Clause in his contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Phillip Danault ($912K, RFA)
D Brandon Davidson ($1.425MM, RFA)
F Jacob de la Rose ($725K, RFA)
F Ales Hemsky ($1MM, UFA)
F Andreas Martinsen ($675K, UFA)
F Torrey Mitchell ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Joe Morrow ($650K, RFA)
F Tomas Plekanec ($6MM, UFA)
D Mark Streit ($700K, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Streit: $300K

Plekanec is Montreal’s highest-paid forward in terms of cap hit and is coming off of arguably the worst season of his career. While he is still a serviceable checker, his production dropped from 54 points two years ago to just 28 in 2016-17. Given their lack of depth down the middle, he’ll still be called on to log an important role this coming season. Danault is coming off of a breakout campaign that saw him ascend to the top line. If he can follow that up with a similar effort in 2017-18, he’ll be in line for a significant raise next summer and has arbitration eligibility. Hemsky missed most of last season with hip problems and is looking to rebuild his value on a team that had issues scoring with consistency. Mitchell should be able to hold on to his fourth line role for one more year but will be pushed by de la Rose for playing time while Martinsen will likely slide into a reserve spot.

On the back end, Davidson will enter his first full season with the Canadiens after being acquired near the trade deadline from Edmonton. He didn’t see a lot of action after being acquired and will likely battle with Jerabek for ice time. Streit was recently brought in just before Markov’s departure was made official. While he can’t handle big minutes anymore, he can still contribute offensively and could push for a third pairing/power play specialist role for a year. Morrow is no stranger to head coach Claude Julien and was brought in after Boston didn’t qualify him. He’ll also battle for a spot but could also be waived and sent to AHL Laval to serve as depth.

Two Years Remaining

D Jordie Benn ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Paul Byron ($1.17MM, UFA)
F Peter Holland ($675K, UFA)
F Charles Hudon ($650K, RFA)
G Al Montoya ($1.063MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($4.5MM, UFA)

Pacioretty is obviously the most prominent name on this list. He has been one of the top goal scorers league-wide in recent years and is on a team-friendly contract. It will take a considerable raise for GM Marc Bergevin to be able to keep him in the fold in the 2019 offseason. Byron surprised many last year as he finished second on the team in goals with 22, far from typical production from a waiver claim. He’ll likely start in a third line spot in 2017-18. Hudon has been one of the better goal scorers in the AHL in recent years and now that he’s waiver eligible, he should get a longer look this season. As for Holland, he’ll contend for a spot on the end of the roster but could also be a candidate to be waived and start in the minors.

Benn added some depth to their third pairing after being acquired before the deadline from Dallas and will likely reprise that role next season. While Montreal has some prospects that could fill that spot before too long, none are quite ready to push for that spot just yet. Montoya was able to leverage expansion to get a two-year extension back in January. He’ll serve as the backup between the pipes for at least one more season.

Three Years Remaining

F Alex Galchenyuk ($4.9MM, UFA)
D David Schlemko ($2.1MM, UFA)

Galchenyuk has long been a focus in trade speculation and this contract that he signed last month that almost amounts to a second bridge deal isn’t going to change that. There remain questions as to whether or not he can play down the middle but either way, he will be counted on to shoulder a big part of the scoring load for as long as he’s still in Montreal.

Schlemko was added from the Golden Knights following the Expansion Draft and gives them some depth on the left side. As the roster currently stands, he may be asked to start in a top-four role in 2017-18.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Karl Alzner ($4.625MM through 2021-22)
F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
F Brendan Gallagher ($3.75MM through 2020-21)
D Jeff Petry ($5.5MM through 2020-21)
G Carey Price ($6.5MM this season, then $10.5MM through 2025-26)
F Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM through 2021-22)
D Shea Weber ($7.86MM through 2025-26)

Drouin was Montreal’s key offseason acquisition after they acquired him from Tampa Bay just before expansion. The team wasted little time locking him up, settling on that contract just hours after the trade was made. He’s a candidate to slide into the vacancy left by Alexander Radulov on the top line right wing. Gallagher’s contract looked like a bargain when it was signed but hand injuries have taken their toll over the past two seasons. Accordingly, his name has popped up in trade speculation but they may be better off waiting to see if he can rediscover his scoring touch. Shaw had his ups and downs in his first season after being acquired from Chicago. He could potentially move into the center position as well but is likely to be a bottom six forward either way and that contract in term and dollar value is a premium for that type of role.

Although the league has trended towards mobility on the back end, Montreal acted quickly to sign Alzner in an effort to bring in some defensive stability. While he profiles better as a second pairing player, he could be forced into a spot on the top pairing. Petry is locked in on that second pairing but with the departure of Markov, he becomes their lone real mobile puck-mover.

Then there are the longest-termed contracts with two players locked up for nine more years. Weber is their undisputed top defender and with Markov gone, more may be asked of him in 2017-18. That contract will become more cumbersome as it progresses and it is one of the now-illegal back-diving deals that will see his salary drop considerably starting in 2022-23. It’s worth noting that Montreal won’t be off the hook for salary cap recapture until after 2019-20.

Bergevin has long-called Price the cornerstone of their franchise and they wasted little time formalizing that as he inked his max-term pact on July 2nd, only the second day that he was eligible to sign. He received the richest deal in franchise history and the most expensive ever given to any goalie league-wide. Because of that financial commitment, he’ll remain their franchise player for many years to come.

Buyouts

None

Still To Sign

None, although many expect them to make another move this offseason.

Best Value: Pacioretty
Worst Value: Plekanec (if his offensive struggles continue)

Looking Ahead

The Canadiens have more than $41MM locked up in those seven players with at least four or more years left which doesn’t leave a lot of financial wiggle room to add another big ticket piece (or in the case of Pacioretty, to retain their top scorer) without creating some concerns. That’s likely to come into play when it comes to using their remaining cap space.

Aside from that, with the sheer number of expiring contracts the team has, Montreal is a candidate to have quite a bit of roster turnover in the next calendar year although it will mostly be depth players replacing other depth pieces.

All in all, with more than $8MM still to work with this summer, it’s hard to imagine that they will have too many challenges staying under the Upper Limit in 2017-18. If the cap doesn’t rise much in the next few years though, they could be facing some difficulty a few years from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

August 7, 2017 at 7:33 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $64,114,999 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Henrik Haapala (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Denis Malgin (Two years remaining, $690K)
D Michael Matheson (One year remaining, $925K)
F Jared McCann (One year remaining, $894K)

Up front, the Panthers will be counting on Haapala, who led the Finnish SM-liiga in scoring in 2016-17, to help fill some of the void left by some of their departures up front (including leading goal getter Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, and Jaromir Jagr). He’s undersized at just 5’9 but with their winger depth, a top-six role isn’t out of the question. Malgin surprised many by making the team out of training camp last season but saw his role reduced as the season progressed. He should make a run at a bottom-six roster spot as should McCann, who enters his second season with the team after being acquired for defenseman Erik Gudbranson last summer.

Defensively, Matheson has quickly blossomed into a core player. He logged over 21 minutes per game last year and should come in around that amount again this coming season. He also has impressed at the past two World Championships with Team Canada. With those in mind, he’s going to be in line for a big raise come 2018-19 and is a prime extension candidate before then.

Potential Bonuses

Haapala: $450K
McCann: $212.5K

Total: $662.5K

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Alex Petrovic ($1.85MM, RFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($950K, UFA)
F Radim Vrbata ($2.5MM plus $1.25MM in bonuses, UFA)

Vrbata parlayed a strong showing with Arizona last season into a richer deal with Florida where he will have a prominent spot inside their top six given all of the players they lose. His bonuses are structured so that he should hit at least $1MM of them ($250K for each of 10, 15, and 20 goals plus $250K for 45 points) while he’ll earn another $250K if they make the playoffs. Sceviour fit in pretty well in his first season with the Panthers as a bottom-six forward who contributed the odd goal here and there. He’s not going to make or break their fortunes and if he was to get an extension, it should come in close to his current contract.

Petrovic signed his current deal at the end of June, avoiding the possibility of going through arbitration. He’s coming off an injury-shortened season where he missed 33 games due to a lower body injury which slowed up his progression. If he can stay healthy and potentially land a spot in their top four on the back end, he may be in line for a long-term contract next summer.

Two Years Remaining

F Micheal Haley ($825K, UFA)
F Derek MacKenzie ($1.375MM, UFA)

MacKenzie is on a 35-plus contract but it shouldn’t be too much of a risk. He has fit in well as a fourth line center and penalty killer. By the time his contract expires, he’ll be 38 and will be approaching retirement. Haley has bounced around on two-way deals in recent years but after holding his own in 58 games with the Sharks last season, he landed this one-way contract that should give him a spot as the 12th/13th forward.

Three Years Remaining

F Evgeni Dadonov ($4MM, UFA)
D Mark Pysyk ($2.733MM, UFA)

Clearly, GM Dale Tallon is a full believer that Dadonov’s offensive progression shown in recent years with SKA St. Petersburg will translate into NHL success in his second go-around. Their commitment to him demonstrates that they believe he can play a top six role right away. He’s one of the riskier signings of the summer but if he can produce, he could become one of the better bargains as well.

Pysyk fit in nicely with the Panthers in his first season with the team after being acquired from Buffalo at the 2016 draft. He’s a steady fourth or fifth blueliner with a cap hit that looks a whole lot better if he can handle the former role on a regular basis moving forward.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Aleksander Barkov ($5.9MM through 2021-22)
F Nick Bjugstad ($4.1MM through 2020-21)
D Jason Demers ($4.5MM through 2020-21)
D Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM through 2024-25)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM through 2022-23)
G Roberto Luongo ($4.533MM through 2021-22)
G James Reimer ($3.4MM through 2020-21)
F Vincent Trocheck ($4.75MM through 2022-23)
D Keith Yandle ($6.35MM through 2022-23)

Up front, there’s a case to be made that most of the players are on value deals. Barkov, when healthy, has proven that he’s a capable top center. However, he has dealt with injury trouble in each of his four NHL seasons and has only reached the 70-game mark once so far. Huberdeau missed most of last year with an Achilles injury but played quite well when he returned and has established himself as a legitimate front liner. Meanwhile, Trocheck led the team in scoring last season and is one of the more underrated centers in the league.

Bjugstad’s situation is a little more interesting, however. He signed his contract in the middle of a career year that saw him pot 24 goals and 43 points. His offense has tailed off since then (he had just 14 points in 54 games in 2016-17) and now sits third on their depth chart at center. His contract is somewhat of a premium for that type of role and with the reports that the Panthers are on a tighter budget, he’s someone that they could look to move at some point over the next year or so.

Defensively, Ekblad’s contract was somewhat of a controversial one at the time considering he had only played two years with Florida before landing it. The fact he’s coming off a down 2016-17 season and a concussion doesn’t help either. He’ll be given every opportunity to bounce back, however. Yandle won’t win many over with his defensive zone play but is still one of the better puck-movers from the back end and is consistently above average in his point production. As for Demers, there has been some speculation that he could be available, in part due to their budgetary restraints. His contract is a bit on the higher end for a second pairing player but he has been fairly steady in that role for several years now which makes him a safer buy if other teams are interested. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him move over the next year or so either.

Luongo is entering the final year of his contract that pays a salary commensurate with a starting goaltender. After that, his pay starts to go down fairly quickly which will lead to speculation about him retiring. If/when that happens, Florida will be hit with a salary cap recapture penalty, the amount of which will vary depending on the year he hangs them up. With that in mind, they went out and added Reimer to give them some insurance for when Luongo retires or gets hurt. In the short-term, Reimer is one of the highest-paid backups in the league but this signing was made with the longer-term in mind.

Buyouts

F Jussi Jokinen ($1.33MM through 2018-19)

Still To Sign

No remaining RFAs although it wouldn’t be surprising to see them shop for some scoring depth up front

Best Value: Barkov (when healthy)
Worst Value: Bjugstad

Looking Ahead

Florida has plenty of cap room to work with although their budgetary restrictions will come into play. They don’t have many expiring contracts that will be due major raises (Matheson is the only one that comes to mind) so their short-term flexibility should be intact for at least a little while.

A few years from now, that should change. They already have nearly $35MM committed to just six players for 2021-22 and unless the CBA swings a higher percentage of revenues to the salary cap (which doesn’t seem like a likely scenario at this point), there’s a good chance that they won’t have the flexibility to really add another core player or two. That said, a lot can change between now and then so their future situation shouldn’t be too much of a concern for now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

August 4, 2017 at 5:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $66,478,691 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Viktor Antipin (One year remaining, $925K)
F Jack Eichel (One year remaining, $925K)
F Sam Reinhart (One year remaining, $894K)

One big reason for the Sabres having the type of cap space that they do is due to the fact that Eichel and Reinhart are still on their rookie contracts. They won’t be cheap for much longer, however. Eichel is believed to be in talks on a max eight-year extension that should have him in the upper echelon of cap hits when all is said and done. Reinhart’s case will be more of an interesting one as he has produced like a second liner through his first two NHL seasons. If he takes the next step as expected, he’ll command a significant raise next summer as well. As for Antipin, he’s a wildcard as he crosses the pond for the first time at the age of 24. The team is undoubtedly hoping he’ll be able to lock down a top-four role and if he does, he too is going to command a big pay increase.

Potential Bonuses

Antipin: $850K
Eichel: $2.85MM
Reinhart: $2.65MM

Total: $6.35MM

One Year Remaining, Non Entry-Level

F Nicolas Deslauriers ($775K, UFA)
D Josh Gorges ($3.9MM, UFA)
G Chad Johnson ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Jacob Josefson ($700K, UFA)
F Evander Kane ($5.25MM, UFA)
G Robin Lehner ($4MM, RFA)
F Benoit Pouliot ($1.15MM, UFA)

Up front, the list is highlighted by Kane, a highly talented but sometimes mercurial winger. He has been a legitimate top line forward at times while at others, he has been content to play a more passive role on a lower trio. With this being a contract year, it will be interesting to see if he can respond with a more consistent season. If Buffalo is out of the playoff race by the trade deadline, he could be one of the best rental options available, assuming he doesn’t sign an extension beforehand. The others are primarily depth/role players although Pouliot is worth keeping an eye on as he looks to rebuild his value after being bought out by the Oilers in June.

On the back end, Gorges has started to break down in recent years, no doubt a by-product of his prolific shot-blocking throughout his career. He isn’t expected to be more than a depth defender on their new-look blueline and if he is offered an extension, it will surely be at a considerably lower salary.

There aren’t many teams that have both goaltenders on expiring contracts but that’s the case here. Lehner is on his second ‘prove it’ contract after coming off a career high 59 appearances last season. If he doesn’t earn the confidence of management in 2017-18, it would seem likely that they will start to take a long look at other potential options. Johnson was brought back to give the Sabres an above average backup that can hold his own if Lehner gets hurt or struggles and will serve as a bridge to youngster Linus Ullmark who is already signed through 2018-19 but will likely spend most of the year with AHL Rochester.Read more

Two Years Remaining

D Nathan Beaulieu ($2.4MM, RFA)
F Johan Larsson ($1.475MM, RFA)
D Jake McCabe ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Matt Moulson ($5MM, UFA)
F Jason Pominville ($5.6MM, UFA)

Pominville was basically a contract that Buffalo had to take on in order to land some help on the back end (more on that player shortly). His best days came with the Sabres and if he can even come close to the form he had a couple of years ago, he could be a big part of their attack. Moulson, meanwhile, has underwhelmed the last couple of years and hasn’t produced like the top-six player they’re paying him to be. If they decide they need to free up cap space for 2018-19, he could become a potential buyout candidate if he doesn’t rediscover his scoring touch.

Beaulieu recently received a second ‘bridge contract’ as the Sabres wait to see if he can put together more of a consistent all-around game while McCabe has emerged as a top-four rearguard. Both players will have arbitration rights at the end of their respective deals.

Three Or More Years

D Zach Bogosian ($5.14MM through 2019-20)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM through 2022-23)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.4MM through 2021-22)
D Marco Scandella ($4MM through 2019-20)

O’Reilly continues to be a go-to player for Buffalo and while his contract isn’t ever going to be a bargain, the perception of it isn’t anywhere near as bad as it was when they signed it upon acquiring him from Colorado. It will be interesting to see how the center position shakes out as Eichel and Reinhart – top-six pivots in their own right – continue to develop. Okposo failed to find the same chemistry he had back with John Tavares of the Islanders while missing the end of the year due to a concussion and an illness stemming from medication he took. While he didn’t produce as expected, he’ll be pencilled in as a top-six winger for a long time yet.

Ristolainen is one of the top young blueliners in the league and will be a bargain for the next half-decade as a legitimate number one defender. Scandella was the focal point of the trade with Minnesota that also yielded Pominville. While his offensive upside is limited, he should at the very least add some defensive stability while being able to log second pairing minutes. Bogosian has not fared well in recent years and hasn’t become the core defender they were hoping he’d be for them when they picked him up from Winnipeg. Speculatively, he’s someone that could potentially benefit from a change of scenery but between his struggles and recent injury concerns, his contract may be tough to move.

Buyouts

D Christian Ehrhoff (post-lockout compliance buyout)
F Cody Hodgson ($42K in 2017-18, -$458K (cap credit) in 2018-19, $792K from 2019-20 through 2022-23)
F Ville Leino (post-lockout compliance buyout)

Still To Sign

F Zemgus Girgensons (RFA)

Best Value: Ristolainen
Worst Value: Bogosian

Looking Ahead

Cap space won’t be an issue for Buffalo this coming season but that will change afterwards as Eichel and Reinhart come off their entry-level deals. If they don’t add any other notable multi-year contracts in the coming months though, they should be well-positioned to incur those raises without having to move any notable players off their roster. With that in mind, while the Sabres have plenty of room for this season as things stand, it’s reasonable to expect that they’ll keep a lot of that space intact to cover the potential bonuses the three entry-level players have on their current deals. If they can absorb the cap charge of those in 2017-18 and avoid any overage penalties, it will leave them in much better shape heading into next offseason.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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