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Players Changing Positions Up Front In 2016-17

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Often, players around the league will be thrust into new situations and responsibilities because of injury or ineffectiveness on the part of someone else. Sometimes they thrive in this new role, and sometimes they just can’t quite make it work.  Here are a few players who will be changing roles this season:

Dylan Larkin – Moving to C – As Ansar Khan of Mlive writes in his latest column, the Red Wings are looking for an answer down the middle after the departure of Pavel Datsyuk to the KHL. Larkin, originally drafted as a centerman out of the US development program, will be moved back to the position for the upcoming year.

In his own words, he’s “going to have to work on faceoffs and little details that are going make me a better player all around and better in the defensive zone.” Indeed, if the Red Wings want to replace Datsyuk’s excellent two-way game, Larkin will need to concentrate on the defensive end a little bit more. He clearly has all the talent to make it work offensively.

William Nylander – Moving to W – In a case of the opposite transition, Nylander of the Maple Leafs is preparing to play much of this season on the wing of Auston Matthews, a pair that head coach Mike Babcock wants to keep together for a while to see if he can create some chemistry. While Babcock admits that Nylander may still take some draws on the right side, he won’t have to be as responsible for the defensive side of the centering a line – something that he struggled with last season.

Another possible Maple Leafs candidate for the transition is Mitch Marner, the uber-prospect who some think is too small to play center in the NHL. If he makes the squad, he’d be hard pressed to knock one of Matthews, Nazem Kadri or Tyler Bozak out of that role, leading to a potential pairing with one of them to start his young career.

Tomas Hertl – Moving to C – While this one actually happened midway through last season, it’s important to note that Hertl will be coming into this camp as a center, and will be pushed to develop and stay at the spot.  He’s spent much of his career thus far on Joe Thornton’s wing, but will now be a big piece of the Sharks down the middle. Even on the third line, Hertl can provide impact with his blazing speed and nifty offensive hands; if he’s to become a future first line centerman though, he’ll have to develop the defensive game just like Larkin.

Mikael Granlund – Moving to W – Another player who made the switch late last year, Granlund excelled on the wing and impressed GM Chuck Fletcher so much that he’ll be moved there again this year. The Wild’s signing of Eric Staal makes sure of that, as they now have a handful of centers that could suit up on the top two lines. Granlund will be allowed to focus on his offense, something that the Wild think will do him wonders. The 24-year old has provided strong play-making ability in his short career, racking up 101 assists in 240 games; from the wing, perhaps he’ll be able to build on his career-high goal total of 13 last season.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.

Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.

Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.

The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.

Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.

Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.

Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.

A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.

Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.

Rebuilding A Franchise: Toronto Maple Leafs

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When a team has a rich history of success followed by decades of disappointment, they become the league’s punchline. A joke so easy to make, some even start to sympathize with their plight – just see the pre-2004 Boston Red Sox, who fans cheered for to dethrone the mighty Yankees and get back to their previous glory.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of these teams. Almost universally hated at one point, they’re now just one of the bottom-feeders, and an afterthought in many fan’s minds. But since Brendan Shanahan took over in April of 2014, the team has had a clear (if sometimes ineffective) plan to tear down the culture and history of the last fifty years, and replace it with a new mentality.

The Leafs ended up at the very bottom of the standings last year, but many believe this was part of the plan. Auston Matthews was the prize, and the team can now start to head back in the right direction, with an ultimate goal of raising the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967, and 14th in team history.

Now, as they head into their centennial season and celebrate the past greats that have donned the blue and white, the team will look for even a modicum of improvement. Matthews will help, as he looks like a lock to be a star forward in the NHL as soon as next year. He’s already playing on team North America despite never hitting the ice as a professional in NA.

They’ve built an elite prospect pool, that includes Mitch Marner and William Nylander, two blue-chippers that can support Matthews and fellow star Morgan Rielly in the resurrection of one of the leagues worst current franchises.

But in what might be their greatest accomplishment, the Shanahan-led front office has convinced a Toronto market – that is usually one of the harshest in the league – to buy into a rebuild in a way never seen before. When nine players made their debut all at once for the Maple Leafs last year, instead of disgust, fans embraced the rookie mistakes and pointed out the encouraging moments.

One of the problems, however, is that they’re not the only team in the Atlantic division to be “doing it the right way”. Buffalo, one of Toronto’s biggest rivals due to their geographic proximity, is following almost the same blueprint to turn around a once proud franchise. Their team has just as many (if not more) elite level prospects/young players, and is trying to create the same winning mentality.

For the Maple Leafs, this may sound like a broken record. They’ve tried rebuilds before, at least for a little while. What they haven’t had, since the Pat Quinn-led, pre-salary cap powerhouses (that still never got all that close to a Stanley Cup), is this level of talent. Matthews, Rielly, Marner, Nazem Kadri and James van Riemsdyk all represent all-star level talent. It’ll be up to Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello and head coach Mike Babcock to keep the team on this path, and really complete the rebuild.

Mitch Marner Has “Good Chance” At Cracking NHL Roster

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While speaking to TSN’s Brent Wallace, Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock revealed his thoughts about top-prospect Mitch Marner, and his chances at breaking camp with the NHL team:

Well I sure think he has a good chance. Mitch has been working with our guys and really training hard. He’s eating right and doing everything he can to get stronger. To say Mitch has got to put on a bunch of weight is ridiculous. All you have to do is get stronger – you are who you are, be the best Mitch you can possibly be. He’s got a lot of summer here left, and he’ll keep working at it, but he’ll have a real good chance to make the Leafs.

Babcock is referring to the overwhelming opinion that has been floated around since his draft, that Marner is too small to play in the NHL. Standing at 5’11”, 164lbs he’s always been a light player, and while he’s been working diligently to put on weight, he’ll never be a bruising forward.  Opponents of the “he’s too small” camp use examples like Patrick Kane (5’11” 177lbs) and Johnny Gaudreau (5’9″ 157lbs) as reasons why Marner will succeed at the next level, given his elite offensive ability and hockey IQ.

While Marner played center in junior with the London Knights of the OHL, and was drafted as such, these smaller players often find the most success on the wings in the NHL and his role at the current National Junior Evaluation Camp may give credence to the idea that Marner is destined to move. He suited up today on the wing of Dylan Strome, top prospect of the Arizona Coyotes, for their game against Sweden (which they lost 4-1).  The Maple Leafs have multiple options down the middle for next season, with Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak and Peter Holland returning, while number-one choice Auston Matthews has been added to the fold. William Nylander, another top prospect who showed off his offensive ability in a short NHL stint last season, is also a center by trade, though some think he’s also destined for the wing long-term.

Babcock also talked about the huge number of young players in Leafs camp this season.  When asked if it was too many, he said he’d thought about that himself:

I’ve spent a lot of time on that. Obviously I have our lineup built out with three teams for camp, two teams for exhibition, and then you get down to one. They have to solve it themselves, it’s not up to me, they decide who’s on the team. When I go through it, we have some good men, we’ve acquired good men, we have good people in our leadership group so I think we can handle some kids. Obviously we had a lot of them last year, and having a few more this year – especially high-end ones – won’t hurt us.

The Maple Leafs have built quite a prospect pool to draw from going forward, with players like Nikita Soshnikov, Zach Hyman, and Kasperi Kapanen all making their NHL debuts last season. This year will be more of the same, as Marner and Matthews try to break in.

Coyotes, Tobias Rieder Still At Impasse On New Deal

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Arizona GM John Chayka has already accomplished much this offseason but a GM’s work is never done. The Coyotes still have RFA Tobias Rieder to re-sign and it appears a deal is not close to being completed.

According to Rieder’s representation, agent Darren Ferris, “There’s been no discussions at this point that have made any meaningful change in anyone’s position.”

Rieder is coming off a 14-goal, 37-point performance this past season and is looking to cash in. Last month, Ferris appeared to have established their expectations for a new contract by naming Nazem Kadri as a reasonable comparable. Kadri netted a six-year deal with Toronto with an AAV of $4.5MM a year ago on the heels of an 18-goal, 39-point campaign. Rieder, 23, tallied 37 points a year ago and on the surface that performance would appear to represent a fair talking point on a new contract. However, Kadri had a much longer and more distinguished track record than the two-year veteran Coyotes forward.

First, Kadri was a high first round draft choice, going 7th overall in 2009. Rieder was a 4th round selection two years later. Teams are willing to bet on upside in contract negotiations and 1st round picks generally come with more untapped potential than 4th rounders.

Second, when Kadri agreed to his extension, he already had posted at least 40 points in four separate NHL campaigns, with a career best 50 coming in 2013-14. He also had six years of NHL experience, putting him just two years away from unrestricted free agency per the terms of the current CBA. Rieder, on the other hand, just completed his second NHL campaign, leaving him well away from unrestricted free agency. Kadri had accomplished far more at the NHL level over a far longer period of time than has Rieder to this point and was closer to reaching free agency.

Ferris also pointed out Jamie McGinn’s recent three-year contract with Arizona as a base line for negotiations. McGinn carries an AAV of $3.33MM.

Again, McGinn has been in the league a lot longer than Rieder (veteran of 450 NHL games) and has two, 20-goal campaigns on his resume. He also signed his deal as an UFA with far more leverage thanks to a broad market than Rieder has as an RFA.

As Morgan wrote, perhaps the most logical comparable given Rieder’s age, experience and production level is Vladislav Namestnikov of Tampa Bay. Through 127 career NHL games, Namestnikov has tallied 23 goals and 51 points, numbers reasonably close to Rieder’s. Namestnikov was selected with the 27th selection in the 1st round of the 2011 entry draft and is the same age as Rieder. Tampa secured Namestnikov’s services on a two-year deal worth slightly less than $2MM annually.

Rieder’s camp is marketing the winger using advanced stats and as we know, Chayka is well-versed in analytics. Evidently, Ferris has yet to make a compelling enough case to sway the Arizona GM to their way of thinking on Rieder’s value. Chayka is obviously sticking to his guns as whatever deal he and Rieder agree on sets a standard for future negotiations. Every new contract adds to the pool of possible comparable deals other agents will point to when advocating for their clients and it’s the job of club management to try to keep those salaries as low as possible.

Ferris has suggested the German-born Rieder would entertain offers to play overseas and while that possibility can’t be discounted, particularly if his European contract contained an out-clause, the NHL is the premier league in the world and most players want to play there. It might go down to the wire but I fully expect the Coyotes and Rieder to get a deal done, likely very similar to Namestnikov’s, but perhaps eclipsing $2MM in AAV.

 

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