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Deadline Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With the trade deadline now less than a week away, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Next to the Ottawa Senators, no team is under more pressure at the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline than the Columbus Blue Jackets. The team has decisions to make on two priority free agents, both of whom appear primed to test the off-season market, in Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Despite two major players who they may opt to sell, the Blue Jackets also plan to be net buyers at the deadline, giving them a massive presence on both sides of the trade market.

Believe it or not, Columbus is still in search of their first playoff round win in franchise history. The 2000 expansion team has had bad luck in the postseason, so their moves at the deadline will be made with some consideration for the future, but mostly in taking advantage of the present. While the Blue Jackets are within striking distance of the Washington Capitals for second-place in the Metropolitan Division and home ice advantage in the first round, they also are not a lock for a playoff spot. Columbus is currently tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens in the divisional and wild card races with just one game in hand and are at risk of falling behind the surging Carolina Hurricanes, who are two points back. The team cannot afford to come out of the trade deadline with the same or worse caliber of roster, even if they do trade Panarin or Bobrovsky. Expect some fireworks from the Blue Jackets this week.

Record

33-22-3, third in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$28.77MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: CLB 1st, CLB 3rd, CLB 4th, CLB 7th
2020: CLB 1st, CLB 2nd, CLB 4th, CLB 5th, CLB 6th, CLB 7th

Trade Chips

There is no trade chip on the block right now that is more valuable than superstar winger Artemi Panarin. Panarin, 27, leads the Blue Jackets in scoring by a wide margin with 67 points through 56 games, which is also good enough for a top-20 mark in the NHL. He is currently on pace for a career-high 96 points, which would be his second straight season of scoring at better than a point-per-game pace and would mark four straight years with 70+ points. Panarin is simply one of the most dangerous offensive players in hockey and his addition would be a complete game-changer for any contender. The question is whether or not Columbus chooses to use him as their “own rental” rather than trade him. It has been reported that Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen will not trade Panarin if the cost to replace him by adding another forward or two will leave the team with little to show for the initial trade. If Columbus can get through the deadline with replacement forward production and significant future building blocks, Panarin will be traded. If not, he stays put.

The odds of Sergei Bobrovsky moving are less likely than the near 50/50 status of Panarin. Although the all-word goaltender seems more likely to depart Columbus as a free agent than Panarin, he is also near impossible to replace at the deadline. Bobrovsky is one three top rentals in net and the other two – Jimmy Howard and Semyon Varlamov – are not guaranteed to be available. The Blue Jackets are not prepared to move an established starter right before the stretch run and postseason without bringing in a suitable replacement. As such, unless a more long-term target emerges, Bobrovsky is unlikely to be traded despite the hype.

Beyond potentially Panarin and Bobrovsky – ironically the only notable UFA’s in the Blue Jackets organization – Columbus is a buyer, not a seller. However, that doesn’t mean that their current roster is untouchable. If Panarin is moved and the Blue Jackets are pursuing top forwards to replace him, talented but ice-cold forward Alexander Wennberg will surely be dangled. Wennberg, 24, is in the second season of a six-year, $29.4MM contract that he has failed to live up to so far. This season has been worse than last, as he has yet to score an even strength goal all season. Even at a cap hit that has not been reflective of his production, some sellers will certainly be intrigued by the 2013 first-rounder’s ceiling. Another young Blue Jackets forward who could be offered up is Sonny Milano, who continues to see limited NHL action despite good AHL production. Young defenseman Gabriel Carlsson, another under-utilized first-round pick, is also a candidate to be traded.

Among their prospect pool, the Blue Jackets may have a tough time avoiding seller demands for first-year pro forward Vitaly Abramov, who has played well in the AHL this season. Arguably the top prospect in the organization, the slick winger has NHL potential and sellers have surely taken notice. Deeper in the pipeline, Columbus will likely hear calls on Swedes Emil Bemstrom and Jonathan Davidsson as well.

Five Players To Watch For: F Artemi Panarin, F Alexander Wennberg, F Sonny Milano, D Gabriel Carlsson, F Vitaly Abramov

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forwards: The only difference a potential Panarin trade makes is the caliber and number of the forwards that the Blue Jackets will target. There is a clear need for offensive depth beyond the Blue Jackets’ top line of Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Cam Atkinson, as no other forward has surpassed 30 points on the year. The power play also needs serious help. If Panarin leaves, the team will need to do their best to replace his production on the top line, likely targeting the top wingers on the market like Mark Stone, Gustav Nyquist, or Mike Hoffman. They will probably look for more affordable top-six options after that. If Panarin stays, the team will still look at top forward options like Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, Mats Zuccarello, and Kevin Hayes. Columbus will be in on nearly every big forward name in the coming days and should add one or two before all is said and done.

2) Defensive Depth: Behind a strong top-four in Columbus are several questions. Can the likes of Scott Harrington, Dean Kukan, and Adam Clendening really hold up down the stretch in a tight playoff race? Or go up against elite competition in the playoffs? The shot side doesn’t really matter so much as the ability, as the Blue Jackets simply need to add a capable veteran defender before the deadline.

3) Draft Picks: When Kekalainen says that he won’t trade Panarin unless the cost of acquiring a replacement would still leave him with a major future piece, that isn’t for nothing. A quick look at the team’s cupboard of draft picks shows how desperate they are in quantity alone. The Blue Jackets currently have just four picks in 2019, likely just one of which will be in the top-75, and are already missing a third-rounder next year. A closer look at the team’s pipeline shows that they lack some game-breaking talent in the system as is, particularly on the blue line. In order to be a buyer, Columbus will further deplete this trade capital. If they do trade Panarin – or Bobrovsky – Kekalainen and company need to make sure that they are going to net some valuable draft picks or prospects in the process.

Poll: Where Will Matt Duchene Finish The Season?

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The trade deadline is less than a week away, and it seems as though the Ottawa Senators have clarity on at least one of their pending free agents. Matt Duchene will almost surely be traded. That’s the sentiment coming out of several reports over the last few days. But where he will eventually end up is still anyone’s guess, even as the best fits start to present themselves. The Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders have all been linked to the star center, with several other teams mentioned in the rumor mill over the last few weeks. Even more than that have likely checked in on Duchene at some point, wondering if he could perhaps be the missing piece for a Stanley Cup playoff run.

Today, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) detailed the various options for Duchene’s camp as they attempt to secure an eight-year deal in free agency. A deadline deal and then sign-and-trade is not out of the question, thus including teams that may not want to give up the assets in-season. A free agent can only sign an eight-year deal with the team that owns his rights as of the latest trade deadline, meaning whoever gets him before Monday passes would have to orchestrate a deal of that length.

Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia also suggested that a sign-and-trade may be on the table, and notes that the Senators actually started “quietly shopping” Duchene last week. The expected asking price according to the Ottawa-based scribe would be a first-round pick, high-end prospect and another piece.

Like with Artemi Panarin and teammate Mark Stone, a deal for Duchene could potentially set the market for these exceptional rental options and quickly get things moving ahead of the deadline. All three will have a dramatic effect on whoever acquires them, and no one wants to waste assets on the second tier of available players before getting a crack at a star.

So who will end up acquiring Duchene? Will the Senators strike a last second deal to keep him in Ottawa long-term, or will he be on the move for the second time in less than two years? What will it eventually cost to get him? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain why in the comments.

Where will Matt Duchene finish the season?
New York Islanders 17.42% (335 votes)
Nashville Predators 17.21% (331 votes)
Winnipeg Jets 12.17% (234 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 7.75% (149 votes)
Boston Bruins 5.93% (114 votes)
Ottawa Senators 3.22% (62 votes)
Montreal Canadiens 3.02% (58 votes)
Pittsburgh Penguins 3.02% (58 votes)
Vegas Golden Knights 2.91% (56 votes)
Calgary Flames 2.81% (54 votes)
St. Louis Blues 2.70% (52 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks 2.29% (44 votes)
Dallas Stars 2.08% (40 votes)
San Jose Sharks 1.72% (33 votes)
Carolina Hurricanes 1.61% (31 votes)
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.46% (28 votes)
Philadelphia Flyers 1.35% (26 votes)
New York Rangers 1.14% (22 votes)
Washington Capitals 1.14% (22 votes)
Colorado Avalanche 1.09% (21 votes)
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.09% (21 votes)
Buffalo Sabres 0.94% (18 votes)
Edmonton Oilers 0.94% (18 votes)
Minnesota Wild 0.88% (17 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 0.73% (14 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 0.73% (14 votes)
New Jersey Devils 0.73% (14 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 0.62% (12 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 0.62% (12 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 0.42% (8 votes)
Florida Panthers 0.26% (5 votes)
Total Votes: 1,923

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Five Key Stories: 2/11/19 – 2/17/19

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With the trade deadline now just over a week away, activity has started to pick up around the NHL.  Rumors of major trades continue, but so far just a few deals have been completed.

Lafreniere To Stay In CHL: Potential 2020 first-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere set the record straight after rumors were circulating that the 17-year-old may opt to sign a contract overseas and follow the footsteps of Auston Matthews who played his draft year in the Swiss NLA. Lafreniere’s agent, Momentum Hockey Agency, released a statement making it clear that while the young talent did look into playing overseas, he and his family decided to stay in the CHL with Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL where he’s played the last two years, having totaled 74 goals and 172 points in 110 games. At 6-foot-1, he already has the size and proven ability to play in a professional league, but he will stay put for one more year.

Pastrnak, Maatta Injured: The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins each took a hit to their team when each team lost a significant player to injury. The Boston Bruins lost David Pastrnak for a minimum of two weeks after he underwent thumb surgery on Feb. 12 after he fell at a team function. The Bruins, who are fighting with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the second spot in the Atlantic Division won’t be helped even if its for a few weeks without Pastrnak, who is the team’s leading scorer with 31 goals as well as 66 points, second on the team. The Penguins also took a hit on their blueline when they placed Olli Maatta on injured reserve with an upper-body injury that would sideline him indefinitely. The team was getting back Justin Schultz from injury at the time, but the team was looking forward to getting back a fully healthy defense, which now they won’t have for some time. To make matters worse, the team had recently dealt away Jamie Oleksiak to make room for Schultz, leaving the team with a lack of depth all of the sudden.

Wild Owner Approves Selling: Just hours after Minnesota Wild head coach Bruce Boudreau guaranteed that the Wild would make the playoffs, Wild owner Craig Leipold announced that he has given general manager Paul Fenton the green light to sell off some of the team’s players in advance of the upcoming trade deadline. With the team dropping four straight and having a 2-5-3 record in their last 10 games, it might be time for Fenton to make his mark on this team after being hired this summer to fix the team’s inability to advance deep into the playoffs. Among the numerous players who could be shipped off include pending unrestricted free agent Eric Staal as well as Charlie Coyle, who still has one more year on his deal. There are also a number of bottom six players who could be moved as well, including Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, Brad Hunt, Matt Bartkowski and Anthony Bitetto.

Philadelphia’s Hart Gets A Mentor: The Philadelphia Flyers finally consummated a rumored trade in which it acquired Edmonton Oilers goaltender Cam Talbot for Anthony Stolarz. While Edmonton freed themselves some much needed cap room as Talbot was making $4.17MM, the Flyers got themselves what they hope will be a long-term veteran who can mentor their prized rookie Carter Hart for the next few years. Talbot, who was already familiar with Hart before, waived his no-movement clause to come to Philadelphia and made it clear that he was open to signing a new contract before July 1 to remain with the team.

Ottawa Intends To Trade Duchene: The Ottawa Senators have stopped in their attempts to sign Matt Duchene to an extension and have indicated to all teams that they intend to trade the 26-year-old center. According to reports, the Senators have shifted their focus of signing Duchene to making a full effort to locking up Mark Stone to an extension. Stone may have a day or two to make up his mind on whether he is willing to sign an extension or he too, will be made available to the league with the intention of selling them off at the trade deadline. Already there has been rumors that the Nashville Predators, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the New York Islanders have expressed serious interest in acquiring the center with more suitors likely to join in before the upcoming trade deadline on Feb. 25.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders are under new management and new general manager Lou Lamoriello has made a name for himself over the years with numerous big deals at the trade deadline during his time with New Jersey and Toronto. The question is whether Lamoriello intends to making a big move with his team being atop the Metropolitan Division.

The team has a core of pending unrestricted free agents who Lamoriello may or may not bring back next season and a number of impressive prospects that are either on the team or sitting with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL and has plenty of cap space to work with. Besides Mathew Barzal, the team still lacks a defining core to work and could use another big-name player or two to give the team several faces to the franchise, which is where the deadline could come in. The real question is do the Islanders want to take the chance of possibly damaging the chemistry the team has created so far this year under head coach Barry Trotz.

Record

35-17-6, first in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Serious to moderate buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$46.12MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: NYI 1st, CAL 2nd, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2020: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

The team has a number of players it could package to a team for a big-name player as the team has five significant players who are approaching unrestricted free agency in the summer, including Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Valtteri Filppula and goaltender Robin Lehner. That doesn’t mean the team has any intention of trading even one of those players. That also doesn’t mean the team won’t let them walk away in free agency either. In fact, there is little known about what the team intends to do before next season and knowing what we know about Lamoriello, the team will make significant changes to their team before the start of next season. However, if Lamoriello intends to make a deal, those five could potentially be part of any package. One interesting storyline is Lehner, who is having a comeback season after struggling greatly in Buffalo and dealing with alcoholism. However, does the franchise feel that he is worthy of a long-term deal or could Lehner be used to work out a deal for a Sergei Bobrovsky?

The team also has a number of young players who could be sent out as well, including Michael Dal Colle, Kieffer Bellows, Joshua Ho-Sang, Otto Koivula, and Sebastian Aho to name a few and that doesn’t even include the talent they still have sitting in the junior ranks. Bellows could be a significant trade chip as the team’s 2016 first-rounder has had significant success on his way up, but has also had some struggles. He currently has 11 goals as a rookie in the AHL. Ho-Sang, who has showed some offensive flair over the years, hasn’t put it all together and has struggled with his attitude. One other significant asset the team has is a significant amount of cap space and the team could be willing to take on a bad contract or two if that can net them another talent.

Five Players To Watch For: F Keiffer Bellows, F Jordan Eberle, F Joshua Ho-Sang, G Robin Lehner, F Brock Nelson

Team Needs

1) Franchise Player: Other than Barzal, the team lacks that face-of-the-franchise player at the forward position who can take over games for the next eight years. The team does have Josh Bailey under contract for a few more years, but the rest of the top-six will have to be written, whether that includes re-signing some of their own unrestricted free agents or whether they attempt to trade for a player like Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone or even someone like Bobrovsky in net.

2) Upgrade on defense: The interesting thing about the Islanders’ defense is that it went from being one of the worst defenses in the league in the 2017-18 season as they allowed 3.57 goals per game (31st in the league) and suddenly the team has totally turned that around in 2018-19 as they have allowed just 2.29 goals per game (first in the league). And that’s with almost no changes on defensive personnel. The team lost defenseman Calvin De Haan, but basically returned the same group from the previous year. Obviously, much of the credit should be given to Trotz, but at the same time, the team needs to consider adding to that defense and improving its blueline like acquiring a Alec Martinez from Los Angeles or Cody Ceci from Ottawa.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Notes: Duchene, Pionk, Talbot, Elliott

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Now that the Matt Duchene sweepstakes have started up after it was announced Saturday night that the Senators have decided to trade their star center after they have failed to negotiate an extension. While the report suggested that the Nashville Predators and Columbus Blue Jackets were the two teams that have been in on acquiring the 26-year-old, The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reports that the New York Islanders and general manager Lou Lamoriello are also very interested in bringing Duchene over to Long Island.

While no one is ever sure what Lamoriello plans to do, he is also well known for making an impact at the trade deadline and even though the Islanders are in first place in the Metropolitan Division, the team is still looking for an identity and has plenty of cap room and prospects to work out a potential blockbuster package if Lamoriello wants to do it. The team is still looking for a replacement for the loss of star John Tavares, who left for Toronto during the offseason. Duchene might be a solid No. 2 center for New York and could be viewed as a long-term piece in New York.

  • The New York Rangers got some good news after defenseman Neal Pionk sat out the third period of Sunday’s game after taking a stick to the eye from Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby, which many felt was a sign that the injury was severe. However, Rangers’ head coach David Quinn said that Pionk was held out for precautionary reasons and is expected to play Tuesday against Carolina.
  • Despite being acquired by the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday morning, the Philadelphia Flyers won’t have goaltender Cam Talbot available for their Sunday game against Detroit. The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor (subscription required) writes that while no reason was given, it’s likely because Talbot is moving from Canada to the U.S. and with his primary employment being moved between countries, he likely will be dealing with visa issues for a little while.
  • Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes that the earliest Talbot could be ready will be Thursday, but the team could get back Brian Elliott even sooner. Depending on how he feels after his game Sunday, Elliott could be available to join Philadelphia on Tuesday and serve as a backup. Elliott has been out of the lineup since Nov. 15 with a lower-body injury. However, with Mike McKenna on the roster and Talbot soon to follow, the team will have four goaltenders and will be forced to make a move, most likely waiving McKenna.

Colorado’s Odds At The First Overall Pick

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Early this season, the Colorado Avalanche were in the most enviable position in sports. Their team was excelling and looking playoff-bound, but without any negative effect on their draft status. Because as the Avs won games, the Ottawa Senators were losing them and Colorado owned the Sens’ first-round pick this year as part of last season’s Matt Duchene trade. There was a real possibility that the Avalanche could be Stanley Cup contenders and also have the first overall pick in the draft. Lately, the Avs have looked less like a playoff team and more like the Senators. Colorado has four wins in their past 23 games dating back to mid-December and have slipped into a tie for tenth-place in the Western Conference, three points out of a playoff spot. The one silver lining: their odds at drafting No. 1 have improved and might end up being the best in several years.

Ahead of the 2014 NHL Draft, the NHL changed the draft lottery rules. Any team in the lottery could now move up into a top-three position and the odds would be more fairly distributed among all lottery teams. There have been slight variations in the odds for each draft, but the biggest shift came last year when the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights to the league added a fifteenth member of the lottery group and further split the odds. Yet, with 18.5% odds, the last-placed Buffalo Sabres still retained the first overall pick and drafted Rasmus Dahlin, a generational defenseman. This year’s prize, play-making forward Jack Hughes, is seen by most scouts as a guaranteed top-six center and power play wizard and the team with the worst record still stands the best chance of getting him by a significant margin.

Of course, the worst record looks like it will belong to Ottawa and thus the pick will belong to Colorado. The Senators are currently in 31st overall in the league standings, three points back of the Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils. If those standings hold, based on last year’s odds Colorado will have a 18.5% chance that the Ottawa pick will be first overall, compared to 13.5% for L.A. and 11.5% for New Jersey. Then, Colorado’s own pick comes into play. Currently, the Avs are technically 23rd overall. If they remain in that spot, they would have 5% odds that their own pick would be No. 1. Combined, they would have a 23.5% shot at picking first. Since 2014, no team has come close to having odds that high at the top pick and Colorado could continue to struggle down the stretch and improve the odds on their own pick. If the Avs were to slip three more spots in the league standings, their odds would be greater than 25%, giving them better than a one-in-four shot at Hughes.

The possibilities are even more intriguing when you consider the odds of both picks winning the lottery instead of just one. Currently, there is about a 0.9% chance that Colorado could pick first and second, not dissimilar odds to those that the final lottery team has of picking first. The addition of both Hughes and the presumptive No. 2 pick, Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko, would be an enormous influx of elite draft talent unseen since the Sedin twins landed with the Vancouver Canucks at second and third overall in 1999. There is a whopping 58% chance that both of their picks land in the top four, which would also be an unbelievable boost for the Avalanche with a number of impact forwards available in this class. And again, these odds can only improve if the Avalanche continue on this downward spiral. If the current standings hold, the worst that Colorado could do is to pick fourth and twelfth – which would still be a better first-round combination than any team in recent years – and the odds of that happening are approximately 18x less likely than picking both first and second; the best case is greater reality than the worst-case.

The moral of the story is that, while it’s disappointing for Avalanche fans to see a talented team plummeting down the standings, there is some upside as well. The team is young and built for the future and are in better shape than any team in recent memory to add the best player in the draft and perhaps two of the best available. So whether you’re a Colorado fan soley focused on Hughes or holding out for another top prospect as well, the team’s current slump is only helping in that pursuit. The ping pong balls will ultimately decide the Avs’ fate, but the future is bright.

Ottawa Senators Plan To Trade Matt Duchene

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A “decision” on the trade plans of the Ottawa Senators for impending free agent forwards Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Ryan Dzingel has been anticipated all week long. With a week left before deadline day, the Senators have to be listening to offers for all three at this point, but there had been no word of extension talks ending with any of the standout out UFA’s. That is until now. According to several sources, for one reason or another the Senators have made the decision to trade Duchene.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman got the ball rolling late last night, when he reported that Ottawa had shifted their focus from re-signing Duchene to re-signing Stone. Friedman wrote that the Senators and Stone had re-engaged in extension talks over the last few days after abandoning talks with Duchene. He stated that Duchene is now available to all interested teams. This morning, TSN’s Darren Dreger reiterated the point by stating that unless there is an unexpected change in the mindset from Duchene’s camp, the center will be traded. He continued that Stone has bought himself another day or two, but that a decision should be made on the star winger soon as well. Colleague Pierre LeBrun followed that up by stating that several teams have already checked in on Duchene. LeBrun believes that the Nashville Predators, who have been interested in Duchene for several years, and the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are expected to target the Senators’ rentals as Artemi Panarin replacement options, are the early leaders in trade talks.

Of the three Ottawa free agents, many expected Duchene to be the most likely to re-sign, due to family ties to the area. It has also been speculated that there is a chance Duchene could be traded and still sign with the Senators as a free agent, giving him a chance to win a title this year and giving Ottawa some nice pieces to help jump-start their rebuild. However, the reason Duchene originally wanted to be traded by the Colorado Avalanche last year was so that he did not have to endure a rebuild. With that in mind, it was always a strong possibility that Duchene’s days in Ottawa were numbered. Now that he is officially on the trade block, the dominoes could begin to fall. If Duchene is available due to a breakdown in contract talks, that could also hurt the chances that Stone would opt for an extension in Ottawa. Additionally, Dzingel continues to be an afterthought compared to Duchene and Stone, which could result in his departure, unless talks with Stone end soon as well and he becomes the priority. Outside of the Senators organization, Duchene’s market will also dictate the price and interested teams for centers like Kevin Hayes, Eric Staal, and Derick Brassard, while the Blue Jackets’ involvement could heat up trade talks surrounding Panarin and set the market for all rentals. With a week to go, things are finally starting to heat up on the rumor mill.

Deadline Primer: Ottawa Senators

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Atlantic Division, here is a look at the Ottawa Senators.

This will be a franchise-changing time for the Ottawa Senators who are in a tough situation with three significant players ready to hit unrestricted free agency in Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. The team has made it clear it’s trying to get them signed to long-term extensions, but will the team offer appropriate deals to them and do any of the three really want to stay with a franchise that seems intent on being one of the cheapest franchises in the NHL.

If the team can’t get them to sign on the dotted line before the trading deadline, then the team will move them with the real possibility that all three will be moved before the trade deadline and with every passing day, it looks more and more likely that Ottawa and general manager Pierre Dorion will be shipping them off. The team has made it clear they are rebuilding their team, which might be just fine if they hadn’t paid a fortune last season to acquire Duchene from Colorado. In that mega-package for Duchene, the Senators also traded away their first-round pick, which right now (pending a draft lottery) is likely to be the No. 1 overall pick.

Considering that none of the three will agree to a sign-and-trade, Ottawa will be lucky to get a quality return for their three forwards, especially for Duchene and Stone who are two of the most coveted assets on the trade deadline.

Record

21-31-5, eighth in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Major seller

Deadline Cap Space

$30.79MM in full-season cap hit, 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 48/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: OTT 2nd, SJS 2nd*, PIT 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 5th, OTT 7th, CAL 7th
2020: OTT 1st, SJS 1st, OTT 2nd, OTT 3rd, CBJ 3rd, OTT 4th, OTT 6th, SJS 6th, STL 6th, OTT 7th

* Sharks will give Ottawa the higher of two different picks, their own and the Florida Panthers’ second-rounder.

Trade Chips

As said earlier, the team will attempt to lock up one or two of Duchene, Stone and Dzingel, but if not, the team is ready to move on from them. Stone has received quite a bit of attention as the Winnipeg Jets are rumored to be aggressively pursuing the 26-year-old winger. Fortunately for Stone and the Senators, he’s having a career year as he’s already scored 26 goals and 57 points and looks to be developing into a consistent 30-point scorer for whatever team can eventually sign him.

Duchene himself, should bring a hefty return, although not as much as Ottawa paid for him a season ago. Duchene is also posting big numbers and looks to be heading for a career-year himself as he already has 26 goals and 54 points and should provide many playoff teams with a solid No. 2 center for the stretch run. Dzingel shouldn’t be forgotten either as the 26-year-old is also putting up nice numbers and again, is headed for a career year. Dzingel already has 21 goals and 41 points, and is just two goals of equaling his career-high. While not of the same magnitude as either Stone or Duchene, Dzingel could also bring back a significant return.

The Senators have a number of other players who could find themselves moved as well, including defenseman Cody Ceci. The 25-year-old will be hitting restricted free agency and with a number of young defensemen coming up through the system, the Senators may prefer to trade Ceci and avoid having to pay big money for him. Now that the team has gotten Jean-Gabriel Pageau back from injury, he too could find himself traded as a depth option for a playoff team.

Five Players To Watch For: D Cody Ceci, F Matt Duchene, F Ryan Dzingel, F Jean-Gabriel Pageau, F Mark Stone

Team Needs

1) First-rounders: Without a first-round pick for the upcoming draft, the Ottawa Senators might feel a little better if it could pick up a couple of first-rounders if they end up trading both Duchene and Stone. There is nothing the team can do to get back their own first and they will have to deal with that, especially if the Colorado Avalanche win the draft lottery with Ottawa’s pick. However, even if they can add a couple late first-rounders, that still would look better than having no first-round pick at all. The team does have a couple of second-rounders, but anything they can do to stockpile picks, especially in the first round would only help them.

2) Young NHL-established Players: It already seems like the Senators have a large number of prospects either already on the team, trying to earn more playing time or waiting with the Belleville Senators, waiting for their chance to get called up. While the jury is still out on many of those prospects, the team could easily use some young players who have already broken through to the NHL and might provide even more offense with a new chance and plenty of opportunities in Ottawa. The Senators are rumored to be asking for Jack Roslovic from Winnipeg in any deal involving Stone, but Roslovic is exactly what the team needs — a player who is closing in on 100 NHL games already and is starting to come into his own now. The Senators need more of those types of players to fill the gap that will exist if the lose Stone, Duchene, Dzingel or anyone else they can.

Trade Rumors: Panarin, Staal, Dzingel, Clifford

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For all the talk of an Artemi Panarin trade, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun cautions that the Columbus Blue Jackets keeping the star forward as an “own rental” is a very real possibility. Lebrun believes that it is all a cost-benefit analysis for the team, “because there’s almost no chance GM Jarmo Kekalainen simply sells off Panarin without also trying to replace him in some fashion via a separate transaction.” The Blue Jackets are on a four-game winning streak and, with a win last night over the Washington Capitals, leapfrogged their rivals in points percentage to put them on pace to finish second in the Metropolitan Division. Columbus is still searching for it’s first playoff series win in franchise history and is not going to give up all hope of that accomplishment this season when they have played so well all season and could earn a home ice advantage in the first round. As LeBrun notes, that means that if the Blue Jackets do in fact trade away Panarin, they would only do so knowing they could acquire another player of similar ability for a favorable price. LeBrun believes that Kekalainen continues to monitor the situation in Ottawa, as Senators forwards Matt Duchene or Mark Stone would be the most likely targets. However, if the Senators’ asking price for either Duchene or Stone is too similar to the return on a Panarin trade, the Blue Jackets lack incentive to shake up their roster for only a minor gain in trade capital. Most likely, this means that Panarin could stay in Columbus as an “own rental” rather than be traded if, of course, the Blue Jackets remain hot through the deadline, but also if the demand from Ottawa is more of a flip of trade assets from a Panarin deal. If the Blue Jackets cannot walk away from the deadline with both an immediate replacement from Panarin and significant future piece, it’s possible that the star scorer isn’t going anywhere until this summer.

  • LeBrun also touches on another team having to tackle a cost-benefit analysis. The Minnesota Wild are in a tough spot; the team has been in playoff position all year, but have just one win in their past seven games since the season-ending injury to captain Mikko Koivu. At this rate, the Wild are going to miss the playoffs, as the Vancouver Canucks, Colorado Avalanche, and Arizona Coyotes are right on their tail. However, even a slight improvement could be enough for Minnesota to clinch the final wild card spot. But does that mean they shouldn’t also be sellers? LeBrun writes that without considerable improvement before the deadline, first-year GM Paul Fenton will need to seriously consider trading his most valuable rental piece, Eric Staal. Staal’s absence, especially in light of the loss of Koivu, would likely see the team fall out of playoff position. Yet, his presence likely isn’t enough to get them through the first round anyway. For what it’s worth, LeBrun adds that Staal has not made it easy on the Wild to move him. The veteran center’s trade protection includes a ten-team no-trade list, which LeBrun reports is primarily contenders. This could force Fenton’s hand when it comes to making a decision on Staal. However, even if Staal is open to a move, the team will have to consider the repercussions on their season. The return on the trade in future value would have to be worth the immense risk of missing the postseason, even with little hope of advancing.
  • In updating TSN’s Trade Bait List, Frank Seravalli writes that interest is picking up on Ottawa Senators forward Ryan Dzingel. While the media, and seemingly the Senators themselves, have been primarily focused of Matt Duchene and Mark Stone, Seravalli notes that Dzingel is enjoying a career year and teams are taking notice. With his trade value at a new high, his cap hit still low, and no sign of an extension, Dzingel is certainly on the block and is a valuable asset and Seravalli feels that the chatter points toward a trade. He has moved Dzingel up to No. 19 on the list.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Los Angeles Kings forward Kyle Clifford is a person of interest for the Toronto Maple Leafs and the two sides discussed Clifford during the recent Jake Muzzin negotiations. Toronto could go back to Clifford in their pursuit of a physical, bottom-six forward before the deadline. Like the reported interest in Luke Glendening, the only problem for Toronto when it comes to Clifford is term and salary. Clifford has just one year remaining at $1.6MM, but even that might be difficult for the cap-crunched Maple Leafs to spend on a probable fourth-liner. It remains a good potential fit, but the Leafs will likely look for pure rentals before returning to Clifford, unless the Kings are willing to retain salary.

Snapshots: Oilers, Duchene, Skinner

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The Edmonton Oilers are six points out of a playoff spot. They’re also just two points out of last place in the Western Conference and just 3-5-2 in their last ten games. Despite that, interim GM Keith Gretzky is still hoping his team can be buyers at the trade deadline. Gretzky spoke on several topics with Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic (subscription required) including his hope for the playoffs this season.

The team has six games remaining before the trade deadline and will have to go on quite a run to really prove that they are contenders in the Western Conference. While you can’t rule anything out when a team has Connor McDavid driving the charge, it’s tough to imagine the Oilers competing with the top contenders in the NHL.

  • Matt Duchene’s agent spoke with Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion again today according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, but still nothing is decided on whether the pending free agent will re-sign or not. Duchene’s decision is likely holding up the entire trade market, given he would likely become the most desirable center available if he chooses to be dealt. The Senators would love to keep their prized forward, but Duchene has to decide whether he wants to go through another rebuild. Even their owner doesn’t believe the team will be competitive until 2021.
  • Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic was on TSN radio recently and wanted to remind people that Jeff Skinner likely won’t be traded away from the Buffalo Sabres, but not necessarily because of an extension. Skinner has a full no-movement clause that came with him even though he waived it to come to Buffalo in the first place. As CapFriendly pointed out today on Twitter, players normally keep the clause even if they waive it for a single trade.

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