Headlines

  • Avalanche Sign Jared Bednar To Contract Extension
  • Philadelphia Flyers Fire Chuck Fletcher
  • Boston Bruins Extend David Pastrnak
  • Boston Bruins Acquire Tyler Bertuzzi
  • Ottawa Senators Acquire Jakob Chychrun
  • Detroit Red Wings Extend Dylan Larkin
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • MLB Trade Rumors
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors

Pro Hockey Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • Atlantic
      • Boston Bruins
      • Buffalo Sabres
      • Detroit Red Wings
      • Florida Panthers
      • Montreal Canadiens
      • Ottawa Senators
      • Tampa Bay Lightning
      • Toronto Maple Leafs
    • Central
      • Arizona Coyotes
      • Chicago Blackhawks
      • Colorado Avalanche
      • Dallas Stars
      • Minnesota Wild
      • Nashville Predators
      • St. Louis Blues
      • Winnipeg Jets
    • Metropolitan
      • Carolina Hurricanes
      • Columbus Blue Jackets
      • New Jersey Devils
      • New York Islanders
      • New York Rangers
      • Philadelphia Flyers
      • Pittsburgh Penguins
      • Washington Capitals
    • Pacific
      • Anaheim Ducks
      • Calgary Flames
      • Edmonton Oilers
      • Los Angeles Kings
      • San Jose Sharks
      • Seattle Kraken
      • Vancouver Canucks
      • Vegas Golden Knights
  • About
  • Contact Us
  • Advertise
  • Partners
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
Go To MLB Trade Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Colorado’s Odds At The First Overall Pick

February 17, 2019 at 1:36 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 7 Comments

Early this season, the Colorado Avalanche were in the most enviable position in sports. Their team was excelling and looking playoff-bound, but without any negative effect on their draft status. Because as the Avs won games, the Ottawa Senators were losing them and Colorado owned the Sens’ first-round pick this year as part of last season’s Matt Duchene trade. There was a real possibility that the Avalanche could be Stanley Cup contenders and also have the first overall pick in the draft. Lately, the Avs have looked less like a playoff team and more like the Senators. Colorado has four wins in their past 23 games dating back to mid-December and have slipped into a tie for tenth-place in the Western Conference, three points out of a playoff spot. The one silver lining: their odds at drafting No. 1 have improved and might end up being the best in several years.

Ahead of the 2014 NHL Draft, the NHL changed the draft lottery rules. Any team in the lottery could now move up into a top-three position and the odds would be more fairly distributed among all lottery teams. There have been slight variations in the odds for each draft, but the biggest shift came last year when the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights to the league added a fifteenth member of the lottery group and further split the odds. Yet, with 18.5% odds, the last-placed Buffalo Sabres still retained the first overall pick and drafted Rasmus Dahlin, a generational defenseman. This year’s prize, play-making forward Jack Hughes, is seen by most scouts as a guaranteed top-six center and power play wizard and the team with the worst record still stands the best chance of getting him by a significant margin.

Of course, the worst record looks like it will belong to Ottawa and thus the pick will belong to Colorado. The Senators are currently in 31st overall in the league standings, three points back of the Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils. If those standings hold, based on last year’s odds Colorado will have a 18.5% chance that the Ottawa pick will be first overall, compared to 13.5% for L.A. and 11.5% for New Jersey. Then, Colorado’s own pick comes into play. Currently, the Avs are technically 23rd overall. If they remain in that spot, they would have 5% odds that their own pick would be No. 1. Combined, they would have a 23.5% shot at picking first. Since 2014, no team has come close to having odds that high at the top pick and Colorado could continue to struggle down the stretch and improve the odds on their own pick. If the Avs were to slip three more spots in the league standings, their odds would be greater than 25%, giving them better than a one-in-four shot at Hughes.

The possibilities are even more intriguing when you consider the odds of both picks winning the lottery instead of just one. Currently, there is about a 0.9% chance that Colorado could pick first and second, not dissimilar odds to those that the final lottery team has of picking first. The addition of both Hughes and the presumptive No. 2 pick, Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko, would be an enormous influx of elite draft talent unseen since the Sedin twins landed with the Vancouver Canucks at second and third overall in 1999. There is a whopping 58% chance that both of their picks land in the top four, which would also be an unbelievable boost for the Avalanche with a number of impact forwards available in this class. And again, these odds can only improve if the Avalanche continue on this downward spiral. If the current standings hold, the worst that Colorado could do is to pick fourth and twelfth – which would still be a better first-round combination than any team in recent years – and the odds of that happening are approximately 18x less likely than picking both first and second; the best case is greater reality than the worst-case.

The moral of the story is that, while it’s disappointing for Avalanche fans to see a talented team plummeting down the standings, there is some upside as well. The team is young and built for the future and are in better shape than any team in recent memory to add the best player in the draft and perhaps two of the best available. So whether you’re a Colorado fan soley focused on Hughes or holding out for another top prospect as well, the team’s current slump is only helping in that pursuit. The ping pong balls will ultimately decide the Avs’ fate, but the future is bright.

Share 0 Retweet 0 Send via email

Colorado Avalanche| Joe Sakic| Los Angeles Kings| Matt Duchene| New Jersey Devils| NHL Entry Draft| Ottawa Senators| Rasmus Dahlin

“Chances Are High” Montreal Canadiens Will Stand Pat At Deadline
Main
Atlantic Notes: Muzzin, Zadina, Scandella, Rodewald
View Comments (7)
newest oldest

Comments

  1. pawtucket

    4 years ago

    Could you imagine if they got 1 and 2?
    I think the rest of the world would demand to see the “draw” live

    Reply
  2. kenleyfornia2

    4 years ago

    Draft lottery is pretty unforgiving in hockey. Maybe thats on purpose tho

    Reply
  3. Polish Hammer

    4 years ago

    Well the Crosby draft certainly seemed rigged to me, they tweaked the rules that year due to the lockout and then picked off camera. After the owners pledged their allegiance to Bettman they all sat there while the fix was in to pass the torch from Mario to Crosby.

    Reply
  4. 66TheNumberOfTheBest

    4 years ago

    And then they sacrificed a chicken and tossed a virgin into a volcano.

    If you think the other owners sat around while Bettman fraudulently handed a player worth hundreds of millions to whichever team got him to a team besides theirs…

    No.

    Reply
  5. Polish Hammer

    4 years ago

    There’s no good reason the picking was done off camera.

    Reply
  6. AstrosWS20

    4 years ago

    Picking 1 and 2 might make up for picking 4th the year after we had the worst point total by over 20 points and one of the worst NHL teams in years.

    Reply
  7. Polish Hammer

    4 years ago

    Even though the 3 guys drafted in front have already done well in the NHL, the kid the Ave got at 4 could very well end up having a better career.

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

    Top Stories

    Avalanche Sign Jared Bednar To Contract Extension

    Philadelphia Flyers Fire Chuck Fletcher

    Boston Bruins Extend David Pastrnak

    Boston Bruins Acquire Tyler Bertuzzi

    Ottawa Senators Acquire Jakob Chychrun

    Detroit Red Wings Extend Dylan Larkin

    New York Rangers Acquire Patrick Kane

    Edmonton Oilers Acquire Mattias Ekholm

    Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty

    New Jersey Devils Acquire Timo Meier

    Recent

    Sharks Recall Kyle Criscuolo And Danil Gushchin

    Predators Recall Spencer Stastney

    Derick Brassard Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery

    Blue Jackets Recall Three, Assign Trey-Fix Wolansky To AHL

    Flyers Activate Travis Konecny Off Injured Reserve, Recall Samuel Ersson

    Metropolitan Notes: Rangers, Ersson, Penguins Defensemen, Edstrom

    Canucks Shutting Filip Hronek Down For The Rest Of The Season

    Atlantic Notes: Harvey-Pinard, Armia, Acciari, Foligno

    Minor Transactions: 03/31/23

    Ottawa Senators Recall Jacob Bernard-Docker

    Rumors By Team

    Rumors By Team

    • Avalanche Rumors
    • Blackhawks Rumors
    • Blue Jackets Rumors
    • Blues Rumors
    • Bruins Rumors
    • Canadiens Rumors
    • Canucks Rumors
    • Capitals Rumors
    • Coyotes Rumors
    • Devils Rumors
    • Ducks Rumors
    • Flames Rumors
    • Flyers Rumors
    • Golden Knights Rumors
    • Hurricanes Rumors
    • Islanders Rumors
    • Jets Rumors
    • Kings Rumors
    • Kraken Rumors
    • Lightning Rumors
    • Maple Leafs Rumors
    • Oilers Rumors
    • Panthers Rumors
    • Penguins Rumors
    • Predators Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Red Wings Rumors
    • Sabres Rumors
    • Senators Rumors
    • Sharks Rumors
    • Stars Rumors
    • Wild Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives

    PHR Info

    • About
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

    scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version