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Matt Duchene

Decisions On Ottawa’s Impending Free Agents Expected This Week

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The NHL Trade Deadline is right around the corner and no team is under more pressure to figure out what their position will be than the Ottawa Senators. The Senators are in the unenviable position of having to both work on extensions and field trade offers for three of the most prolific unrestricted free agents of the 2019 market. Forwards Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel are currently ranked No. 2, No. 3, and No. 8 respectively among all impending free agents in scoring and have all established themselves as elite players and core pieces. While Ottawa would prefer to keep the trio, the rebuilding team cannot afford to let any of them walk as a free agent because they were unable to come to terms on a new contract and too indecisive to make a move before the deadline.

During last night’s “Headlines” segment of Hockey Night in Canada, Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman reported that it was his understanding that the Senators would have a decision made on the availability of Stone, Duchene, and Dzingel by “about 10 days out before the deadline hits” on February 25th. This hypothetically gives the Senators one more week to discuss new contracts, followed by one weeks to talk through trade scenarios. In other words, Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion should either be announcing extensions or reaching out to teams with asking prices by the end of the week.

It has long been expected that the Senators would talk through contracts with Stone and Duchene first and then work on Dzingel once they have more clarity on their long-term future. As the Sportsnet team expanded on the topic, Chris Johnston added that he feels Duchene could be the linchpin of the whole situation. Johnston believes that Duchene enjoys living and playing in Ottawa, near family and friends, and is open to staying with the Senators. In fact, Johnston even threw out the possibility that Duchene could be traded at the deadline, the return on which would help the Sens in the rebuilding process, and then re-sign with the team this summer. Colleague Nick Kypreos also notes that many expect Ottawa’s initial extension offer, rumored to be in the ballpark of eight years and $64MM, to be the largest total amount Duchene will receive in a contract offer. As the top free agent center, he may get an offer with an AAV higher than Ottawa’s $8MM per year, but it will be limited to seven years maximum, if that. Kypreos believes this could also point to Duchene staying with the Senators.

If Duchene really is committed to Ottawa long-term, and has bought in to the promises made by owner Eugene Melnyk earlier this week, it would help to convince Stone and Dzingel to stay as well. However, some are not as optimistic about the odds of the trio sticking around as the Sportsnet crew. The venerable Bob McKenzie stated on the latest episode of “The TSN Hockey Bobcast” that he does not expect Duchene or Stone to re-sign with Ottawa and believes they will both be dealt at the deadline. McKenzie notes that the promise of the open market is likely too much for the star forwards to ignore and that neither is convinced that Ottawa’s offers are the best they will get. While McKenzie doesn’t doubt that Dorion and company will continue to work on contract negotiations, he thinks that decisions are already close to being made, possibly even by tomorrow, which marks two weeks out from the deadline. If there’s a silver lining for Senators fans in McKenzie’s forecast, it’s that he admits the Senators will land substantial returns for both players and he did not speak to a Dzingel departure. That may have to do for the Senators faithful as their team navigates this tricky situation.

 

Snapshots: Fines, Barrie, Senators

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James van Riemsdyk has been fined $5,000 for his high-stick on Los Angeles Kings defenseman Alec Martinez last night. That is the maximum allowable fine for the incident, which did not draw a penalty in the game. While van Riemsdyk will not face a suspension, fines like these are taken into account for any future discipline handed down from the Department of Player Safety.

  • The Colorado Avalanche are about to have a wealth of right-handed defensemen available to them, and Mike Chambers of the Denver Post believes it might mean they end up trading Tyson Barrie. In fact, Chambers went so far as calling a Barrie trade “inevitable” in his latest mailbag, noting that Conor Timmins is close to a return from injury and Cale Makar is expected to sign after the NCAA season is completed. Barrie is having another outstanding offensive season with 40 points in 49 games and could likely bring back a substantial trade package for the Avalanche if they make him available. With another year on his current contract, a trade doesn’t necessarily need to be before this month’s deadline.
  • Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today to talk about the trade market, and he explained that “in the next three to five days” there should be a resolution one way or another with Mark Stone and Matt Duchene in Ottawa. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Senators will have signed or traded their two star free agents, but likely that their camps will have indicated to GM Pierre Dorion where negotiations are headed and whether he needs to move them. Friedman notes that those players are still holding up the market at large.

Senators Notes: Anderson, Boedker, Stone, Duchene

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The Ottawa Senators are busy negotiating extensions with and listening to trade offers for several of their most important players. Yet, The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that you can cross one prominent name off the list of deadline trade candidates. Garrioch, referring to comments made by GM Pierre Dorion, states definitively that starting goalie Craig Anderson will not be traded before the NHL Trade Deadline at the end of the month. Anderson, 37, has dealt with injuries this season and has only played in 34 games. While his performance has improved slightly over a forgettable 2017-18 season, Anderson’s .906 save percentage and 3.50 GAA are less than stellar. In fact, Anderson has not even been the Sens’ best keeper of late, as trade acquisition Anders Nilsson sports a .922 save percentage and 2.53 GAA in eight appearances. Despite these setbacks, there has been speculation all season that a team in need of help in net could look at the experienced veteran as an option. However, Dorion seems content to stick with Anderson, at least through the end of the season. Anderson is signed for one more year at $4.75MM and could hypothetically be moved this off-season, but with Nilsson heading toward free agency and a loaded free agent crop at the goalie position that should quell the trade market, it’s safe to assume that Anderson surviving the deadline this year means he will begin next season with the Senators.

  • CapFriendly reported earlier today that the Senators have placed forward Mikkel Boedker on injured reserve. Garrioch additionally adds that Boedker is considered week-to-week with an undisclosed injury. While it seems like the Senators might not be too concerned about a brief absence for Boedker given their place in the standings, his injury could prove problematic in trade talks. While the bulk of the focus on Ottawa’s deadline dealings has fairly been on priority free agents Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, and Ryan Dzingel, Boedker has quietly had a strong season and could be of interest to suitors. Acquired from the San Jose Sharks as part of the Mike Hoffman return, Boedker has 28 points through 51 games thus far, which puts him on pace for 45 points; this would be the top mark by Boedker since he left the Arizona Coyotes organization years ago. Boedker has one more year left on his contract at $4MM and the cost-cutting Senators would jump at the chance to move his contract off the books – especially if it would help to retain any of the aforementioned trio – and also get a decent trade return this year. However, Boedker’s ability to help a team down the stretch and in the postseason this year would be a key part of his trade value. This injury could make it difficult to move Boedker after all.
  • Another week closer to the trade deadline and the Senators still do not have an extension in place with Mark Stone. Despite Stone’s insistence that he would like to stay in Ottawa and the team’s determination to get a deal done, there have been no signs that a resolution is close. TSN has reflected this lack of change to the status quo by moving Stone up to No. 5 in their Trade Bait List, where he joins teammate Matt Duchene, who is currently No. 2. As Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes, it’s impossible to know where exactly Ottawa is in negotiations with Stone or Duchene, but as the days tick by, it becomes more likely that they are dealt. Friedman believes that the team will have to make a decision on the pair “very soon” so that they can move on to working with Ryan Dzingel on an extension.

Ottawa Senators Meet With Matt Duchene’s Representatives Again

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Pat Brisson, the agent for Matt Duchene was in Ottawa today meeting with Senators GM Pierre Dorion according to Darren Dreger of TSN. The meeting lasted “a few hours” according to Dreger, but apparently no decision has been made one way or the other. The Senators are working to try and come to a conclusion on a potential contract extension with Duchene in the next few days so that there will be time to figure out a trade before the deadline if necessary.

Duchene, a pending unrestricted free agent, was linked to the Winnipeg Jets again today by Frank Seravalli of TSN by saying the team has done their “due diligence” on the Senators forward (along with teammate Mark Stone and others). There will be many more teams checking in on the status of the potential trade target, given the impact he could have on a contender down the stretch. While Duchene has only played eight playoff games in his entire career, he’s in the middle of his best offensive campaign and would be arguably the top center available.

Still, it’s understandable that the Senators will do everything in their power to keep him around. Less than two years ago Dorion sent a huge package out the door to bring in the former Colorado Avalanche forward, and immediately explained that he wanted to keep him around long-term if possible. That was when the Senators expected to be battling for the Stanley Cup, something that quickly turned out to be a dream (or nightmare, if you’d rather). Now, with the team heading into another rebuild and very possibly saying goodbye to Stone just a few months after watching captain Erik Karlsson traded away, Duchene has his own reservations about signing long-term.

Duchene recently explained to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia his hesitation:

I’m still trying to educate myself with what’s here now and what’s coming. It’s hard because when you go from a team when I got here that was kind of favorite to challenge for a Cup, and probably looked at as a top six or seven team in the league, to where we’re at right now.

I’ve been in this situation before with teams where we’re kind of starting from the bottom and the biggest thing is you need a crystal ball to see how it’s going to pan out. That’s what I’m trying to do as much as I can but, at the end of the day, it might be something that’s too hard to predict.

I see these young guys and this team is going to be outstanding at some point, but the question is, ‘When?’

That question is not without an obvious answer, given the turmoil that has surrounded the Senators over the past year. Even this season the team can’t get away from their mistakes of the past, as Colorado still owns their first-round pick from the Duchene deal. That very well could be the first overall selection in June’s draft, given the Senators currently sit in last place in the entire NHL. That’s a tough negotiating position for Dorion on the Senators front office.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Deadline Primer: San Jose Sharks

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we begin to examine the Pacific Division, here is a look at the San Jose Sharks.

The moment that the San Jose Sharks traded for star defenseman Erik Karlsson, many people felt that the Sharks would be at the top of the Pacific Division. While no one was expecting the Calgary Flames to be so dominant, the Sharks are solidly in second place and with their impressive play of late, it wouldn’t be a shock if San Jose found their way back during the team’s stretch run. The Sharks have been rolling, having won 10 of 14 games and three of those games were a streak when they were forced to play without Karlsson.

With a number of veteran players trying to hold on for another deep playoff run, including Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Sharks picked up another significant piece to their plans to win this season. The team went out a year ago at the trade deadline and picked up Evander Kane from Buffalo, eventually locking him up long-term and they followed that up by adding Karlsson during the offseason. Throw in the fact that Thornton hasn’t been 100 percent this season and isn’t the same player due to his knee injury and the need for more depth is obvious. No one would be surprised if general manager Doug Wilson tries to pry another major piece.

Record

29-16-7, second in the Pacific Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$6.76MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: FLA 2nd, SJS 3rd, SJS 5th, SJS 6th, SJS 7th
2020: SJS 2nd, SJS 3rd, SJS 4th, SJS 5th, OTT 5th

Trade Chips

This is where the Sharks might have some problems. The team has already moved its first-round picks in 2019 and in 2020 as they moved their 2019 pick to Buffalo for Kane and then their 2020 first-rounder for Karlsson (pending multiple conditions that are likely to hold). The team has already unloaded several key young players and prospects in separate deals, including Chris Tierney, Rudolfs Balcers, Danny O’Regan, and Josh Norris. It’s been made clear that the Sharks aren’t interested in moving too many more prospects, leaving the team bare of incoming prospects, but regardless, time is running out for a number of their veterans and with the dominance of several teams, the Sharks will want to keep up with them.

Regardless, the team may have few choices. One player the team could consider moving out would be forward Kevin Labanc, who has five goals and 30 points this season, but hasn’t been able to break into the team’s top six. The 23-year-old still has plenty of promise and might be able to being in a significant return for a player who tallied two 100-point seasons in the OHL. The team also could dip into their prospect pool that has a number of talented players, including 21-year-old goalie Josef Korenar, who appeared in the AHL All-Star game this year, AHL forwards Dylan Gambrell and Francis Perron, as well as highly-touted offensive defenseman Ryan Merkley, and junior forwards Sasha Chmelevski and Ivan Chekhovich.

Five Players To Watch For: G Aaron Dell, F Barclay Goodrow, D Tim Heed, F Kevin Labanc, D Joakim Ryan

Team Needs

1) More forward depth: The team has a solid top-six, but the third line has been average at best and hardly the scoring line the team was hoping for at the beginning of the year. With Thornton ailing, the team could use a sniper, potentially who has some experience manning the center position to improve the bottom-six. Thornton has just 10 goals and 25 points in 43 games this season and looks like he’s heading for his most disappointing season so far. While Marcus Sorensen has shown improvement, the forward has just 17 points this season, while Labanc still hasn’t full proven himself to head coach Peter DeBoer. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Sharks went to the Ottawa well again, having already worked out deals to take Mike Hoffman and Karlsson from the Senators. A rental like Matt Duchene or winger like Mark Stone would force the team to adjust their lines and put some quality offense on their third line.

2) Defensive depth: With an injury, as well as poor play, coming from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, the team may want to bring in a veteran defenseman who could provide the team with some strength behind the blueline. The team has gotten surprisingly good play from defenseman Radim Simek, who the team signed out of the Czech Republic last summer. However, the team needs more help there and don’t have too much help at that position down in the AHL.

Matt Duchene Still Undecided On Future In Ottawa

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The Ottawa Senators are going to need an answer at some point. Matt Duchene understands that, but it doesn’t mean he’s going to feel pressured into making one before his time is up. The pending unrestricted free agent forward spoke to reporters including Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia today, and explained that whether he re-signs in Ottawa or tests the market, the decision will be based on where he thinks he can win.

We’ve been talking, my agent and I have been talking, and, like I said, at the end of the day it’s going to be a hockey decision. I see certain things on TV or in the media and I laugh because I have no idea where they’re coming from.

It’s pretty simple right now. We’re talking about it, we’re looking at it from a hockey perspective and we’ll go from there.

On the latest edition of TSN’s Insider Trading, Bob McKenzie reiterated that nothing has changed between Duchene’s camp and Senators GM Pierre Dorion. The two sides are set to speak again in the next few days, but McKenzie points out how saturated the rental market will be if both Duchene and fellow Senators forward Mark Stone become available. A team that would be interested in both players according to panelist Darren Dreger is the Winnipeg Jets, who have been searching for more forward help throughout the season. Stone, Dreger notes, is from Winnipeg and could be a huge addition for their Stanley Cup run.

But with Duchene, a decision has to be made in the next few weeks in order to give the Senators time to put together a trade if it comes to that. The 28-year old center would be quite an addition for any team looking to contend this season given his outstanding production—47 points in 41 games—but his lack of playoff experience might come as a red flag. Duchene has suited up for just eight playoff contests in his entire career and just two since his rookie season in 2010.

There is now just over three weeks until the February trade deadline, and the Senators are still holding up a good portion of the market with Duchene and Stone. Though defensemen may now have a price set thanks to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ acquisition of Jake Muzzin, the forward market is still unclear. Teams aren’t going to want to spend all of their assets on a lesser player just to find out that Duchene and Stone are available, meaning we may not see a ton of movement until the Senators come to a conclusion. That decision rests on Duchene as far as his future is concerned, and he clearly hasn’t made it yet.

2019 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 1-10

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With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, the All-Star break seemed like the perfect time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2019. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We ran spots 11-20 a few days ago, and will publish the honorable mentions tomorrow afternoon.

1. Erik Karlsson, San Jose Sharks — Karlsson was the unanimous choice for the top spot and it is easy to understand why. Even after an apparent slow start, the 28-year old defenseman is having one of the most dominant seasons of his career and now has 43 points through 47 games with the Sharks. Acquired for a huge package of assets just before the season began, he makes San Jose one of the most dangerous contenders in the quest for the Stanley Cup. Karlsson has been reported to be looking for a deal approaching Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM extension in free agency and could only sign a contract of that length with the Sharks after this season’s trade deadline. If he doesn’t put pen to paper quickly after the deadline passes though, you can bet 30 other teams—well, perhaps not Ottawa—will be drooling over the idea of adding him in the offseason.

2. Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets — Panarin was ranked no lower than fourth by any of the writers, and that is only because of the other incredible talents at the top of the list. The 27-year old winger is a dominant offensive force that ranks seventh in scoring since entering the league in 2015-16. Once believed to be a byproduct of Patrick Kane in Chicago, Panarin has shown that he can be the one driving the offense even while helping along a rookie forward in Pierre-Luc Dubois. Agent Dan Milstein is set to speak with Panarin one final time before letting Columbus know if he’s willing to negotiate an extension with the Blue Jackets, but looks like he’ll remain with the team through the trade deadline regardless. If the Blue Jackets can’t get him to sign, Panarin could very well cause a bidding war in the offseason that results in one of the biggest winger contracts in league history.

3. Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators — The first of several Senators to grace this list, Stone trailed Panarin just barely in our voting for the second spot. That’s a credit to how far his star has risen over the past few seasons, and how well-rounded his game has become. The 26-year old will be one of the younger players to hit free agency this year and will likely do so after a career-high in points. Already sitting with 50 in 50 games, Stone brings more than just offensive production to the table. One of the best two-way wingers in the league, he routinely strips opposing players of the puck and gives the Senators a chance for a counter attack. He has received Selke votes in each of his four full seasons and will undoubtedly do so again this time around. There’s no doubt that the Senators want to keep Stone around and that he’s willing to listen to an extension offer, but the closer it gets to July 1st the more tempting free agency becomes.

4. Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres — You can understand why Skinner has publicly stated several times that he would love to stay with the Sabres. All he’s done since arriving in Buffalo is score, notching 30 goals through his first 48 games this season. That’s the fourth time the smooth-skating winger has reached the 30-goal plateau in his career, and a mark that is sure to drive up his price to a point where the Sabres may not be able to accept it. Remember that the team already has Jack Eichel locked in long-term for $10MM per season and could be worried about putting themselves in a situation similar to Edmonton where too much of the cap is tied up in a few players. Kyle Okposo’s deal is already looking troublesome and the team will have work to do on players like Sam Reinhart and Casey Mittelstadt after the 2019-20 season. That’s not to say Buffalo won’t fight to keep him though, as Skinner has been a big part of rejuvenating a frustrated fan base this year.

5. Matt Duchene, Ottawa Senators — You would think a 28-year old center scoring at more than a point-per-game rate in his contract year would rank even higher on this list, but there are likely still concerns about Duchene after his actions the last few years, deserved or not. Forcing a trade out of Colorado hasn’t done him any favors as he found himself on a struggling Ottawa team, but there is nothing wrong with his production since arriving in Canada’s capital. With 47 points in 41 games this season he has a chance to break his previous career-high of 70 points, and almost all of his damage has come at even-strength. Always one of the best in the league in the faceoff dot and a responsible enough player in his own end, you can bet a long-term deal is coming for Duchene. The only question is will he sign it with Ottawa over the next few weeks, or does a team spend big to get him at the deadline and try to extend him before the end of the year.

6. Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets — Buyer beware with the first goaltender on our list, as long-term deals for goaltenders over 30 don’t always work out. If there’s a goalie you would want to put your chips on though, Bobrovsky may be it. The Blue Jackets netminder is a two-time Vezina winner who came into this season with a career .920 save percentage and showed his durability with 128 starts over the last two years. This year hasn’t been up to his standards, but there is reason to believe he’ll bounce back in the future. Still, if Bobrovsky is expecting a deal approaching Carey Price’s eight-year, $84MM extension there won’t be a ton of teams lining up for him. Not many can afford to inject that kind of goaltender contract into their salary structure, meaning Bobrovsky will need to find the right fit—or perhaps desperate team—to squeeze that much juice out of his next deal.

7. Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks — Just when you think Pavelski might be reaching the age where he starts slowing down, the 34-year old gets off to perhaps the best start of his career. The San Jose captain scored 25 goals in his first 43 games this season and now sits with 45 points through 52 contests. A reliable, versatile forward that can play in basically any situation, Pavelski would also add an incredible amount of leadership and experience to any team in the league. The idea of him leaving San Jose still doesn’t feel right though, especially when you consider GM Doug Wilson’s loyalty to his veteran players in the past. Still, Patrick Marleau left San Jose in the summer of 2017 to chase a Stanley Cup—and $18.75MM—in Toronto and Pavelski would likely draw an even bigger offer from someone around the league. His game won’t last forever, but 194 goals since the start of 2013-14 speaks for itself.

8. Kevin Hayes, New York Rangers — Hayes wants to stay with the Rangers, but the New York front office will have to make a decision on whether he fits into their competitive timeline. If they happen to send him packing at the deadline, you can bet there will be plenty of teams calling. He’s missed time due to injury this season but there is still a very good chance that Hayes ends up with a career-high in points given that he already has 33 through 39 games, and teams are always on the lookout for size up the middle. It’s not that Hayes is a very physical player, but adding a 6’5″ center who can contribute in all situations is basically goal number one for almost any contender. Still, Hayes could very well be a player who gets a little more money than perhaps he deserves, thanks to the huge opportunity he’s had in New York this season during their rebuild.

9. Anders Lee, New York Islanders — Lee arrives on our list in the top-10 given his performance again this season, but it is unlikely that he will actually reach free agency in July. The Islanders have been confident with their approach to an extension with Lee, and felt secure enough to hand him over the captaincy even with just a single year remaining on his current contract. You can bet GM Lou Lamoriello will be putting on the full-court press to get Lee under contract in the coming weeks, but if for some reason the big forward decides to follow John Tavares out the door he’d be a hot commodity. While he might not hit 40 goals this season, there’s still a good chance he will notch his third consecutive 30-goal campaign and with it establish himself as one of the best all-around goal scorers in the league. A big powerplay presence who has demonstrated great leadership in the new-look Islanders locker room, he’s in for a huge raise on the $3.75MM cap hit he’s carrying this year.

10. Tyler Myers, Winnipeg Jets — If it weren’t for Karlsson’s existence at the top of the list, more people might be talking about Myers’ impending free agency. The massive defenseman’s worth is boosted simply by him being right-handed, but he’s also proven to be an effective player for the Jets over the last few years. Though his responsibility and ice time have declined with the emergence of Jacob Trouba, Myers is still young enough—29 in just a few days—to be worth a long-term deal in free agency as a solid top-4 option. The right-handed variety of those get paid big bucks in free agency, making it a tough sell for Winnipeg in a year that they already have so much work to do in the offseason. Simply put, the team likely can’t afford to retain Myers if they plan on extending all of their key restricted free agents, a group that includes Trouba, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. If Karlsson is locked up before free agency starts, you can bet a ton more will be written about Myers and where he could possibly fit in.

Trade Rumors: Duchene, Lightning, Bargains

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Seemingly every year, there is speculation that a prominent impending free agent could be the one to finally bring the “sign and trade” back to the NHL. The sign and trade is relatively self explanatory; a player re-signs with his current team to a contract negotiated with a second team that he is subsequently traded to. In the current structure of the NHL, the sign and trade could hypothetically be used to add an eighth year to a contact, as free agents are limited to a cap of seven years when negotiating with a team other than their current club. This season, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun has reopened the sign and trade discussions, this time in regards to Ottawa Senators forward Matt Duchene. LeBrun speculates that Duchene has approximately two weeks to work out an extension with the Senators before the team will be forced to shop him. Ottawa has reportedly already made an initial offer of eight years and $64MM, but Duchene is likely to be eyeing an AAV closer to $9MM per year instead of $8MM. If that counter is too rich for Senators owner Eugene Melnyk and company, the team could not afford to miss out on a the potential return for Duchene at the trade deadline.

When it comes to a sign-and-trade, things get tricky for the player, which could explain why it remains such an infrequently used device in the NHL. While the eighth year is enticing for Duchene, especially at his desired salary, signing that long-term deal means a) getting another team to first agree to that contract and b) trusting the future plans for that franchise. The last time Duchene was traded, from the Colorado Avalanche to the Senators early last season, it didn’t work out so well. Duchene may be hesitant to sign with a team for eight years simply because they can afford to acquire him this season. A sign and trade also eliminates Duchene’s opportunity to test the free agent market and potentially maximize his market value. Duchene will undoubtedly be the top center on the UFA market this summer and may wish to weigh his options rather as a first-time free agent rather than commit to another team so soon before seeing what else is out there. A sign and trade works out nicely for the Senators, as they would surely receive a better return, but finding a trade partner could be difficult and getting Duchene to go along with the plan may not happen. For these reasons, a sign and trade remains an unlikely result to the ongoing Duchene saga.

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have all the makings of a true trade deadline buyer this season: they are the first-place team in the league by a considerable margin, will have upwards of $8MM in cap space by the deadline, and are facing an impending cap crunch that could begin to dismantle their roster as early as this off-season. The Lightning are in win-now mode and, with excellent odds of winning the Stanley Cup, will look to add the best reinforcements they can ahead of the deadline. However, the Lightning may struggle to make the trades typically seen by a true buyer. Tampa Bay currently has 49 players signed to professional contracts against a cap of 50, per CapFriendly. The team probably doesn’t want to hit that 50-contract mark either, as it would take them out of the college and junior free agent market this spring. This means that the Bolts cannot simply trade picks and prospects for rental players. Instead, GM Julien BriseBois will have to get creative with sending under-contract players the other way. Only two of Tampa’s 49 “pro” players are in juniors, meaning that any trades will likely send current AHL contributors to sellers and the team will effort to do so without hurting their postseason depth. At the end of the day, Tampa Bay’s trades at the deadline may end up looking more like hockey trades – player-for-player talent swaps – than you would typically see from a deadline buyer.
  • Sportsnet’s Andrew Berkshire believes that there is great long-term value to be found in the current buyer’s market. Berkshire writes that the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Brandon Saad, and the Florida Panthers’ Evgeni Dadonov are among the best bargains potentially available on the market due to their recent struggles and/or under-the-radar trade status. Berkshire states that Toffoli’s value is at a career-low given his current 33-point pace for the down-and-out Kings. However, Toffoli notched 47 points just last year and has 20+ goals in three of the past four seasons. The two-way forward also has a palatable $4.6MM cap hit and could be a buy-low candidate that blows up with a change of scenery. Similarly, Berkshire believes that Saad’s value is still low after bottoming out last season. He has rebounded this season, but is still on pace to fall short of the 50+ points that used to come consistently for him. At $6MM AAV for two more years, Saad’s contract isn’t egregious but is a strain for the cap-strapped Blackhawks. They could be enticed to sell low on the power forward and could very well end up on the wrong side of a Saad trade for the third time. Conversely, Berkshire believes that the Panthers are happy with Dadonov and would be reluctant to move him, but may feel pressured to sell at the deadline despite few obvious rental pieces. The play-making winger is quietly on his way to another 65-point season or better and with one year left on his contract at just $4MM, is already a bargain and could be even better elsewhere. Florida won’t give him up easily, but considering the upside that Dadonov has shown, he could still prove to be a steal even with ample trade capital going the other way.

Duchene Camp, Senators Set To Speak Again This Week

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For a player in the final season of his current contract, time is running out to negotiate an extension before the trade deadline. If things aren’t put together over the next few weeks, teams will have to make a decision on whether they should move the expiring asset or risk letting him walk for nothing. Nowhere is that ticking clock louder than in Ottawa, where the Senators are facing tough decisions on a trio of forwards. Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel are all scheduled to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the year, and if they don’t get a deal done soon GM Pierre Dorion might be forced to trade them.

While it’s not clear if the Senators will get a deal done with any of the three, there is at least contact between the camps. Most notably with Duchene’s representation who met with Dorion when they were in Los Angeles and according to Darren Dreger of TSN will speak again this week about a potential extension. Dreger reports that in the discussions earlier this month the two sides spoke about an eight-year contract, and suggests that the Senators are hoping to stay somewhere around $8MM per season. That apparently might not be enough for Duchene’s camp, who Dreger points out might be looking for somewhere between $65-75MM, presumably also over that eight-year term.

Whether the Senators want to sign Duchene or not, a contract of that magnitude is one that takes a lot of consideration for a budget team. In fact, a $64MM deal like Dreger suggests would be three times as big as any contract Dorion has handed out in the past. His previous high water mark was the four-year, $20.75MM deal handed out to Mike Hoffman in 2016, one that obviously didn’t work out perfectly for the Senators. Even Dorion’s predecessor Bryan Murray only signed a single player to a deal eclipsing $50MM, and that was the seven-year $50.75MM deal for Bobby Ryan that is haunting the Senators’ salary structure to this day.

Obviously the team has paid out big contracts before, but it’s hard to imagine them forking over more than $125MM in the next few weeks to Duchene and Stone. Both players are undeniable talents, but may just be too pricey for the Senators to keep around. If that’s the case, the team will need some time to work out the best trade for the organization, meaning a decision will have to come in the next few weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

New York Islanders Could Be Buyers At Trade Deadline

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Just a few weeks ago, most people felt the New York Islanders would be sellers at the deadline as the team has a number of players ready to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of the season, including Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Valtteri Filppula as well as goaltender Robin Lehner. However, with a recent hot streak in which the team has gone 14-3 in their past 17 games dating back to Dec. 15, the New York Islanders suddenly have found themselves in first place in the Metropolitan Division and look like a team on the rise.

Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes that while no one ever knows what Islanders’ general manager Lou Lamoriello is thinking, he wouldn’t be surprise if the team decides to become a buyer rather than a seller at the trade deadline. The team could make a move in order to bring in a rental forward like Ottawa’s Matt Duchene or Mark Stone or even add to their defense by going after Los Angeles’ Alec Martinez or Jake Muzzin, or possibly both.

New York does have some tradeable assets as they have several young players trying to work their way onto the Islanders’ roster, including forwards Michael Dal Colle, Joshua Ho-Sang and Keifer Bellows as well as defenseman Sebastian Aho among others. And that doesn’t include top prospects that are currently playing for their junior teams. With many teams looking to get younger, the Islanders might have the right pieces to bring some of those players in as Lamoriello reshapes the roster to his design as the team currently has only a few players locked up to long-term deals.

While Brooks is guessing on what Lamoriello might target for his team, the scribe adds that moves may come soon as Lamoriello is well known for making deals well before the deadline.

 

 

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