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East Notes: Point, Dzingel, Duchene, Wilson

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Lightning GM Julien BriseBois held contract extension discussions this week with the agent for center Brayden Point, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic on TSN’s Insider Trading (video link).  However, both sides agreed to shelve those talks until after the season.  He made quite an impact for Tampa Bay last year with 32 goals and 34 assists and is off to a strong start in 2018-19 with four points in as many games heading into tonight’s contest.  That’s going to have him in line for a significant raise on the league-minimum $650K salary ($686K cap hit) that he’s receiving this season even though he won’t have salary arbitration rights.  However, it won’t be until the offseason now until he finds out how much his next deal will be for.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • The Senators are expected to have winger Ryan Dzingel back in the lineup on Saturday against Montreal, notes TSN’s Brent Wallace (Twitter link). He has missed the last two games due to a lower-body injury.  Meanwhile, while the team was hopeful that defenseman Cody Ceci (upper body) and winger Alex Formenton (concussion) would also be ready to play Saturday, head coach Guy Boucher indicated that both will be out until next week at the earliest.
  • Still with the Senators, center Matt Duchene confirmed to reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that his agent held preliminary extension discussions with GM Pierre Dorion earlier this week. It’s expected that if an agreement can’t be reached between now and the trade deadline in February that he will wind up being dealt as a rental player.  Duchene has a $6MM cap hit with a $6.5MM salary this season and it’s likely that his next contract will eclipse that.
  • Tom Wilson’s suspension appeal with the league was a lengthy one, reports Sportsnet’s John Shannon (Twitter link), who notes that the hearing took over seven hours altogether. However, no ruling from Commissioner Gary Bettman is expected until next week as he will use the weekend to review the transcripts.  Wilson has served the first six games of a 20-game suspension and is currently eligible to return to the Capitals lineup on November 21st.

2018-19 NCAA Players To Watch

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Just like their professional and junior counterparts, the college hockey season is underway. With each passing year, the NCAA’s influence on the world of hockey grows. The NHL boasts more than a few top rookies fresh out of the college ranks this season and those still in school in 2018-19 will soon join them. This year’s crop of talent is sticking with the trend, with several players in need of watching:

The Recent Draft Picks

D Quinn Hughes, Michigan (VAN): Hughes very nearly signed his first pro contract with the Vancouver Canucks this summer before deciding to return to Michigan. The seventh overall pick back in June, Hughes was the second defenseman off the board behind top pick Rasmus Dahlin, and many even saw No. 7 as being a steal for Vancouver. An electric skater who can’t help but draw the eyes of spectators as he moves effortlessly around the ice, Hughes pairs his skating ability with the vision and positioning that makes him a threat in all three zones. Hughes also has an NCAA season under his belt already and should be even more prepared to dominate opponents this season. Hughes is a complete two-way defenseman and the centerpiece of a Wolverines team that was a Frozen Four finalist last year. Hughes himself could be eyeing the Hobey Baker Award this season. Michigan almost had Hughes’ younger brother and presumptive top 2019 pick Jack Hughes joining them this season, before he decided to stick with the U.S. National Development Program for another year before almost certainly turning pro.

F Oliver Wahlstrom, Boston College (NYI): Perhaps the most gifted goal scorer of the 2018 draft class, Wahlstrom was a late addition to BC’s freshman class, changing his commitment from Harvard, and the Eagles could not be happier. Wahlstrom is a rare combination of both high-end skill and hard-nosed play who dominated with the U.S. National Development Program last year. The right winger has had the attention of scouts for his puck-handling ability since he was nine years old, but as he’s grown up he has also filled out his frame and added a menacing physical element to his game. Wahlstrom can skate and possess the puck as well as anyone, but is even more of a threat as the go-to shooter, which he will be skating with a roster of play-makers up front for BC. Wahlstrom could be the next big NHL power forward and may very well be one-and-done in the NCAA if he continues to score at a torrid pace this year and force the hand of the rebuilding New York Islanders, who selected him with the eleventh pick this past year.

F Joel Farabee, Boston Univ. (PHI): Wahlstrom’s teammate with the U.S. National Development program last season, Farabee was the one feeding Wahlstrom most of the time with 43 assists to his linemate’s 48 goals. Farabee is now a cross-town rival of Wahlstrom’s as he joins the uber-talented BU Terriers. Farabee is a threatening presence in the offensive zone, but is even more dangerous due to his two-way ability. An extremely intelligent winger who is beyond his years in terms of decision-making and positioning, Farabee is as responsible a freshman forward as you can find in the NCAA. He may not light up the score sheet right away this year, but will no doubt make a difference for the title-chasing Terriers. Farabee’s style bodes well for an NHL career in Philadelphia, after the Flyers used the No. 14 pick on him in June.

F Jay O’Brien, Providence (PHI): Some considered it a reach when the Flyers used their second first-round pick on O’Brien, another college-bound forward and one who was coming from the prep school ranks with Thayer Academy. However, the 19th overall pick more than earned his draft slot after scoring 80 points in 30 games while also displaying an impressive two-way game. O’Brien now bring his talents to Providence, a program that lost their top two scorers from last season and are looking for their next star forward. O’Brien could emerge as both the top scoring threat and dependable defensive forward for the Friars in his first collegiate season. O’Brien is also ready to take on Hockey East competition with a gritty games that all Philly and Providence fans will appreciate.

The Soon-To-Be NHLers

D Cale Makar, UMass (COL): Few will argue that Makar isn’t the best prospect in the NCAA, if not the best drafted player not playing in the NHL. The smooth-skating defenseman was the fourth overall pick in 2017 by the Colorado and would be skating on the Avs’ top pair right now if he had not committed himself to Amherst and to entering the pros as well-rounded as possible. Makar possesses elite puck-handling skills and vision and can out-skate almost anyone in the college ranks. Makar should improve upon his 21 points in an up-and-down freshman campaign and could flirt with point-per-game production from the blue line. The newly-named UMass captain, along with talented fellow defenseman Mario Ferraro (SJS) and top forward John Leonard (SJ) have the Minutemen thinking NCAA Tournament for the first time in years, while Makar could easily be a Hobey Baker candidate.

G Jake Oettinger, Boston Univ. (DAL): Oettinger nearly turned pro this off-season, but returns to BU with his sights set on backstopping the team to a national championship. A first-round pick at No. 26 in 2017, Oettinger was selected by the Dallas Stars with the expectations that he would be the heir apparent in net. Even with the emergence of Colton Point, the Dallas job is still there for the taking. The team’s veteran duo of Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin won’t be around forever and Oettinger could conceivably compete for starts as early as 2020. Expect the big goaltender to put up stellar numbers behind a deep Terrier defense this season before joining the pro ranks next year.

F Ryan Poehling, St. Cloud (MTL): Poehling was drafted for his intelligent, professional, two-way style and Montreal hoped he would develop into a capable bottom-six center. However, they have to be pleased with the improvement in his offense, after he registered 31 points in 36 games for a St. Cloud team that was top seed in the NCAA Tournament. Poehling lacks the high-end skill of other first-round prospects, but the 2017 No. 25 pick makes up for his skating and hands with positioning and composure. Poehling should again improve this season while maintaining his elite defensive play and could be in the running for the Hobey Baker Award, especially if the Huskies are dominant yet again. The Canadiens prospect should then compete for a roster spot right away next season.

The Trade Return

F Josh Norris, Michigan (OTT): The recent centerpiece prospect of the Erik Karlsson trade, a lot of eyes in Ottawa will be on the performance of Norris this season. The entire top line of the Michigan Wolverines’ Final Four roster has moved on to the pros, leaving Norris as the team’s top center. The No. 19 pick in 2017 by the San Jose Sharks, Norris is a freak athlete who can hold his own against anyone in the NCAA. The Senators’ new addition also has a deceptively quick release on his shot and is deadly accurate with both passing and shooting. Norris simply needs to embrace his role for Michigan, both carrying the puck and shooting more often. Some more experience, specifically as the team’s top scoring option, should go a long way for the promising center’s development.

F Shane Bowers, Boston Univ. (COL): Of course, who can forget the top center prospect that Ottawa recently traded away themselves. Bowers, part of the regrettable package that the Senators sent to the Colorado Avalanche for Matt Duchene, is set to be the go-to guy up front for BU this season. Bowers’ 32 points in 40 games last season ranked third last season for the Terriers, but with Jordan Greenway and Brady Tkachuk now gone, Bowers should be the top option and could be a dark horse Hobey Baker candidate on a talented BU team that should provide plenty of scoring chances. Bowers is quick-thinking and quick-skating offensive presence who is especially dangerous on the power play and works the puck down low perhaps better than anyone in the college ranks. A breakout campaign for Bowers should give the 2017 No. 28 pick an opportunity to compete for a spot among the Avs’ young forward corps next year.

D Adam Fox, Harvard (CAR): Fox, entering his junior year with the Harvard Crimson, has already seen his NHL rights traded. Fox had allegedly expressed a resistance to signing with the Calgary Flames, but so far no such sentiment has been associated with his new team, the Carolina Hurricanes. Fox is a mature, intelligent defender who has been a point-per-game player in college and especially excels as a power play quarterback. However, Fox is more than capable on the back end as well. Assuming he is yet again producing a Hobey Baker campaign for Harvard this year, Fox seems like a prime candidate for a late-season contract and brief tryout with the Hurricanes. Carolina’s depth on defense may block him from being a full time NHLer for a few years, but when Fox finally does land that job, he has the complete game to be a dangerous presence on any blue line.

The Top Prospect

D Ben Brinkman, Minnesota: If there is one thing that the 2018-19 NCAA class lacks, it is many standout draft-eligible prospects. Brinkman alone is a candidate for early selection next June, but the Minnesota native is a surefire first-rounder. The Gophers have rarely given a true freshman defenseman the role and minutes expected of Brinkman this season, but the teen blue liner is a special talent. A smooth skater who excels with the puck on his stick, it will be no surprise to see Brinkman frequently carry the puck up and start the rush for Minnesota and he should see ample power play time as well. Brinkman is no slouch in his own zone either, as he plays a competent game that allowed him to shut down high school competition. The adjustment to the college level will come with some lumps for the young defenseman, but Brinkman should emerge from this season as a bona fide NHL prospect.

Matt Duchene To Be Patient With Next Career Move

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Much has been made of the dwindling core of the Ottawa Senators. Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman are gone, Craig Anderson is nearing retirement, and the teams top three forwards are impending unrestricted free agents – that would be Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel. Given the current state and direction of the team, it has been estimated by many that all three could opt for the open market next summer. Stone took a direct approach to those rumors this week, stating that he loves Ottawa and wants to remain with the Senators.

As TSN’s Frank Servalli writes, Duchene is not so eager to decide one way or the other on his future. Earlier this off-season, Duchene said that an extension is something that he would definitely consider, but wanted to see how things go this year. Since then, it has gone from bad to worse in Ottawa with the departure of key players, as well as ownership and the front office committing to a rebuild. It seems very unlikely that the season will go well for the Senators, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will sour Duchene on sticking around. Duchene called last year a “disaster”, both personally and for the Senators and is looking for a fresh take this season. In his first full season with the team, Duchene’s individual performance and his fit in the locker room and in Ottawa’s long-term plan is instead what will likely dictate his next move. Duchene appreciates being close to home in Ottawa and could cherish a role as a leader with the Senators. Then again, polarizing owner Eugene Melnyk has been apprehensive about awarding expensive contracts and Duchene could decide after a strong season that he has a much better chance at getting market value and finding a winning situation with another team.

Sens fans would love to hear that Duchene is committed to the team, and sooner rather than later. After all, Ottawa gave up quite the package to acquire him from the Colorado Avalanche early last season, including what could turn out to be the top overall pick in next year’s entry draft. However, given their recent rash of bad luck, those same fans would rather Duchene be patient with his decision than be yet another player hoping to be dealt away. Unlike Stone, who – after going through the arbitration process – may not re-sign until after January 1st, Duchene is eligible to ink an extension already. Just don’t expect a decision any time soon, though.

Atlantic Notes: Krug, Zaitsev, Formenton

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Throughout the offseason, there have been lots of rumors surrounding the Boston Bruins, including many names that had been bandied about, including their top defenseman Torey Krug, whose name came up on several occasions while Boston was looking for a top-six winger. It wasn’t that they wanted to get rid of him, but logically, Krug would have made the most sense to move with the emergence of Charlie McAvoy. The crowded defense probably could survive without him and with his cap hit of $5.25MM AAV, the team could use the cap relief. Not to mention the fact that he’s posted 110 points over the course of the last two seasons.

In the end, the team never moved Krug or even came that close to moving him. Regardless, Krug laughed off the trade rumors, according to Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports.

“I don’t really see anybody doing my job here. I just have to make sure I show up every day and do the job the best that I can,” said Krug, who remained behind in Boston while rehabbing a fractured ankle as the bulk of the team trains in China. “You can’t really worry about too many things that people are saying. You go back to that famous line that it’s the nature of the business. So I’m still here and ready to do my job.”

  • Kristen Shilton of TSN writes that Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Nikita Zaitsev took it hard last season when he struggled after returning from injury last season. The 26-year-old was coming off an impressive rookie season in which he four goals and 36 points, but after breaking his foot, while blocking a shot on Dec. 15, his season took a turn for the worse. He came back after missing 17 games, but never was the same. “[You’re] not confident in yourself,” Zaitsev said on Saturday, reflecting on his return during Toronto’s training camp session at Gale Centre Arena. “Missing six weeks, it was [really hard]. It’s not an excuse, though. I started the season really good and I was confident in every minute what I did on the ice. After [getting hurt] I just couldn’t keep myself on the same level.” He hopes that now, finally healthy, he should be able to bounce back next season.
  • The Ottawa Senators might be heading for a full-blown rebuild, but that’s just fine for 19-year-old Alex Formenton, who has impressed the coaching staff after a couple days of training camp, according to Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen. The 2017 second-rounder made the team as an 18-year-old out of training camp last season, but was sent back after playing just two games before being sent back to his junior team. However, it’s his speed that has really impressed the staff this year as he has been already teamed with Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel in practice. “He makes a few guys look like cones out there,” Ottawa Senators coach Guy Boucher said of Formenton, who scored during Saturday’s intrasquad scrimmage. “It’s not the guys’ fault. It’s just that he’s so impressive. If you give this guy a bit of room and you didn’t gap up well, goodbye. A few of our older guys are finding that out.”

More On Erik Karlsson Trade: Pick Conditions, Extension, Colorado

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Perhaps the biggest move of the off-season was completed earlier today, when Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators to the San Jose Sharks. The return: two-way NHL forward Chris Tierney, rookie forward Rudolfs Balcers, collegiate center and 2017 first-round pick Josh Norris, young depth defenseman Dylan DeMelo, and four draft picks. While the Senators don’t know for sure how the likes of Norris and Balcers will pan out, the players acquired in this deal are somewhat identifiable assets with ascertainable ceilings. The picks carry far more potential; however they also each carry conditions. The earliest possible pick chronologically would be a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks owe the Buffalo Sabres their first round pick in the next NHL Draft as a condition for re-signing winger Evander Kane, but with the additional condition that they make the playoffs. Should they miss the playoffs – a catastrophic result for a team that now has meteoric expectations – the team could opt to send that pick to Ottawa and their 2020 first-rounder to Buffalo if they so choose. If not, and the Sharks make the playoffs as expected, the Senators will land that 2020 first-round pick.

Ottawa will still have an early pick from San Jose in June though, perhaps even earlier than expected. The condition on that pick is that it is the highest of the second-round picks owned by the Sharks: their own and the Florida Panthers’, which ironically was part of the return from the Sharks’ flip of former Ottawa forward Mike Hoffman earlier this year. Florida is expected to improve this season, but playing in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs means the Panthers face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and could easily end up with a draft slot in the first half of the second round. Whereas, the Sharks should by all accounts be a playoff team and more in the coming season.

Speaking of Hoffman, the Senators learned from that experience with Sharks GM Doug Wilson. As Sportsnet’s  Chris Johnston notes, Ottawa threw in what may as well be a “Mike Hoffman Clause”. After San Jose traded for Hoffman only to trade him hours later to one of the Senators’ division rivals, GM Pierre Dorion added a conditional future first-round pick if Karlsson is traded back to the Eastern Conference this season. The pick must be exchanged by 2022 at the latest.

Finally, the Sharks sent a 2021 second-round pick to the Senators that carries two conditions. The pick itself is conditional upon San Jose re-signing Karlsson, whose current contract expires at the end of the season. If the Sharks both appear in the Stanley Cup Final this year and extend Karlsson, that pick becomes a first-rounder. In summary, at worst the Senators will receive a second-rounder in 2019 and the Sharks’ first-rounder in 2020 and at best they receive three first-round picks between now and 2022 and potentially a first-round and early second-round pick next year.

  • One condition that is already looking good for the Senators is the one that hinges on Karlsson re-signing in San Jose. Although there has been no word from the star defenseman’s camp on his future or thoughts on a contract extension, Wilson already has the future in mind. Although the relatively underwhelming return for a player of Karlsson’s caliber reflects the risk of just one year remaining on his salary, Wilson made the deal with hopes of keeping him around for much longer. Wilson told the gathered media this afternoon that “It’s a long-term approach and we think Erik fits for now and for a long time.” While Karlsson has been clear that he wants to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and that would be best served on the open market, the Sharks have the salary cap composition moving forward to meet his contract demands. If the season goes according to plan and the Sharks win or come close to winning the Stanley Cup, with Karlsson playing a key role for what on paper looks like the best defense in the league, he could be tempted to skip free agency and re-sign in San Jose.
  • Although the Karlsson trade was between just two teams, there is no way to truly evaluate the reverberations of this trade without discussing the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators have changed the tone of their public relations approach following this trade, being clear that they have entered a rebuild. However, the fact remains that the Senators don’t own their first-round pick next season. That selection belongs to the Avs as part of the Matt Duchene trade. With Karlsson’s departure, the team that many pegged to be the worst in the league has now lost their best player and have an even better chance of finishing the season in 31st place. This would also give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery and the best odds of drafting projected franchise center Jack Hughes. However, that fate belongs to Colorado, who now stand a very high chance of seeing an already lopsided return for Duchene reach its maximum value. The 2018-19 Senators season will now likely matter more to Avalanche fans than it does to their own. To make matters worse, publicly committing to a rebuild could mean that Duchene, an impending unrestricted free agent, doesn’t even last the season on the Ottawa roster.

Poll: How Many Pending UFAs Will Stay With Ottawa?

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The Ottawa Senators made waves last night when they released a bizarre marketing video that seemed intended to settle down fans and sponsors upset with the direction of the team. Owner Eugene Melnyk and defenseman Mark Borowiecki discussed the roster, and how it may look completely different over the next 12 months. Melnyk even went so far to say there will be 10 “new”—rookies or players who played around ten games last season—on the roster this season and 15 or 16 in 2019-20. While that seems difficult to pull off for the 2018-19 season given the veteran group that is there right now, perhaps there is huge turnover coming in the next few weeks and months.

When looking at the Senators salary structure, there is certainly a few things that stick out. Only Bobby Ryan is signed for more than three seasons, and just Marian Gaborik and Zack Smith are even under contract that long. Almost the entire roster is set to hit unrestricted free agency in either 2019 or 2020, meaning there is a good chance they could have a much different looking group down the line.

That different look though is predicated on the idea that the Senators won’t re-sign any of their pending free agents. While Erik Karlsson seems like he’ll be gone soon and at the very least won’t be re-signing with Ottawa, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene have both remained open to the idea. Beyond them though are other key players like Ryan Dzingel and Chris Wideman, both scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2019.

So how many of those pending UFAs will stick around? Vote below for all the players who you believe will re-sign with the Ottawa Senators before the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Leave your comments on where you think they are heading below!

Which pending UFAs will re-sign in Ottawa?
Ryan Dzingel 12.98% (181 votes)
None of the above 12.77% (178 votes)
Matt Duchene 10.98% (153 votes)
Magnus Paajarvi 9.47% (132 votes)
Chris Wideman 9.04% (126 votes)
Mark Stone 8.90% (124 votes)
Tom Pyatt 6.31% (88 votes)
Max McCormick 4.59% (64 votes)
Erik Burgdoerfer 4.16% (58 votes)
Mike McKenna 4.09% (57 votes)
Jim O'Brien 4.02% (56 votes)
Paul Carey 3.80% (53 votes)
Chase Balisy 3.73% (52 votes)
Ben Sexton 3.37% (47 votes)
Erik Karlsson 1.79% (25 votes)
Total Votes: 1,394

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Ottawa Senators Preparing For Huge Roster Turnover

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Late last night after much of the hockey news had died down for the day, the Ottawa Senators released a video of defenseman Mark Borowiecki and owner Eugene Melnyk discussing the future of the organization. Touching on subjects from dressing room leadership to overcoming the low expectations for 2018-19, Melnyk made clear he would be staying with the franchise for a long time and will not move it from Ottawa. He also noted an interesting point about roster construction, explaining how quickly the rebuild will get underway:

This coming year we’re going to have 10 out of the 22 players are going to be new. Meaning they’re either rookies or they’ve played maybe under 10 games last year. Then the following year, it’s going to go up to about 15 of the 22, maybe 16. So that’s a total turnover you know, which is exactly what should be in a rebuild. 

Stripping your roster down to the studs and letting a group of young players grow and mature together is often a strategy for struggling teams who want to rebuild, and the Senators saw a similar situation play out just down the road in Toronto a few years ago. In fact, when the Maple Leafs traveled to Ottawa to open the season in 2016 they had seven rookies in the lineup including Auston Matthews, who scored four times despite the loss. That would appear to be the blue print for Melnyk and the Senators as they look to pull a similarly speedy rebuild.

The question though becomes how do they achieve the goal of having 10 rookies on the roster at the beginning of the year. The team currently has at least 19 players—Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Tom Pyatt, Magnus Paajarvi, Max McCormick, Colin White, Marian Gaborik, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Ben Harpur, Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson, Mike Condon and Borowiecki—who played more than 10 games for the organization last season and should at the very least be battling for roster spots. While perhaps Melnyk was exaggerating and players like White and Chabot would still be considered “rookies” given their relative youth and inexperience, it seems likely that there will be substantial turnover in the rest of the group.

We’ve heard for months that Karlsson may be on the block, speculation that will only increase given his complete absence from this video, but other players including Stone and Duchene are both heading into the final years of their contracts and could be shipped out for prospects and picks. If the Senators are committed to a full scorched earth rebuild, they are powerful assets in trade.

At the very least, we should expect the Senators to be involved in trade talks all season. Even though Melnyk and Borowiecki seem excited about playing the underdogs this year, the amount of roster turnover that the owner mentions isn’t possible without some transactions coming through the pipe quickly. Camp starts in just a few days and Senators rookies should be licking their chops on the opportunity that is apparently there for the taking.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $67,318,095 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Kerfoot (one year, $925K)
F Dominic Toninato (one year, $925K)
F J.T. Compher (one year, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (one year, $894K)
F Tyson Jost (two years, $886K)
F Vladislav Kamenev (one year, $833K)
F A.J. Greer (one year, $741K)
D Samuel Girard (two years, $728K)
D Anton Lindholm (one year, $718K)

Potential Bonuses:

Rantanen: $850K
Jost: $850K
Kerfoot: $213K
Girard: $183K
Lindholm: $183K
Compher: $100K
Greer: $75K

Total: $2.47MM

For a successful team that made it into the playoffs and gave the Nashville Predators a run for their money, it’s a bit surprising that the team got quite a bit of contributions from entry-level players, with Rantanen probably at the top of the list of contributors. After a 20-goal season in his first full season on the team, the 21-year-old took that next step and benefitted from playing with Nathan MacKinnon on the first line, breaking out with a 29-goal, 84-point season. With the top line expected to return this season, don’t be surprised if the winger puts up another big season right before he becomes a restricted free agent and could get rewarded with a long-term contract.

The team expects similar success from Kerfoot, who arrived in Colorado as a four-year college free agent from Harvard University. The 24-year-old posted a 19-goal, 43-point rookie campaign last year as a member of the team’s third line and now is expected to move up a notch and battle Jost for the second-line center position, with the loser moving to right wing on the same line. Jost, scored 12 goals last season in his rookie season, but the 2016 first-rounder is expected to break out if he can earn a spot on that second line as well. Both are likely to have promising seasons.

The 23-year-old Compher is another young talent who will be given every chance to fight for a spot as the left wing on the second line. In his first full season, Compher posted 13 goals and could be in line for a bigger season next year. The team also has high expectations for Girard on the defense. One of the key pieces of the Matt Duchene trade, the then 19-year-old defenseman was able to stay in the NHL, averaging 17:39 ATOI once he was traded from Nashville and posted 20 points in his rookie season and should be able to improve on that as he will likely assume a top-four role already next season.

One interesting prospect is Kamenev, who also came over with Girard in the Duchene deal, but the 22-year-old center was injured one game into his Colorado career, and he missed most of the season. Now healthy, Kamenev has a good chance to earn a role on the team’s third line in hopes of putting up good numbers next year. Toninato may also be an interesting addition as he has a chance to pick up the fourth-line center spot after signing last season out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Colin Wilson ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($2.15MM, RFA)
F Sven Andrighetto ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Gabriel Bourque ($950K, UFA)

With cap room at a premium, general manager Joe Sakic had the opportunity to use that to his advantage as he was able to acquire the bloated contract of Brooks Orpik from Washington to acquire their future goaltender in Grubauer, who has posted two straight seasons of .923 save percentages or higher. The Capitals’ backup goalie looks ready for a chance to take a starting role and while he might split time with Varlamov early on, the team’s hopes is that Grubauer steals the job away from him. Varlamov and his $5.9MM contract is set to expire next year, meaning the Avalanche are likely going to allow him to walk.

The team has a pair of defensive players in Zadorov and Nemeth, who will be fighting for contract extensions next season. Zadorov has been a key defensive player for the team, posting 278 hits as well as blocking 106 shots. He even posted a career high in both goals (7) and points (20). Nemeth came over to Colorado from Dallas and immediately jumped into the rotation and led the team with a plus-27 rating and was crucial to the team’s penalty kill and likely will take a third-pairing role once again.

Wilson could be pushed down to the team’s third line or provide a veteran presence on the second line depending if one of the youngsters fails to impress in camp. However, the 28-year-old is coming off of one of his worst-ever seasons as he posted just six goals and 18 points last season. Andrighetto will be another youngster who should get some time in the team’s bottom-six.

Two Years Remaining

D Tyson Barrie ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($1.98MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
D Mark Alt ($725K, UFA)

The 27-year-old took that next step for the Avalanche, putting up career numbers in both goals and points as he posted 14 goals and 57 points last season as he’s proven to be a No. 1 defenseman that the franchise really needs. The team must find a way to lock him up to an extension in July next year.

Soderberg doesn’t post big offensive numbers, but is viewed as a critical shutdown defender, who the Avalanche put up against other teams’ top players. The 32-year-old did put up 16 goals and 37 points last year, but his main responsibility is to center the team’s third line. Nieto will likely end up there with him, who also produced at a career-high as he posted a 15-goal season last year.

Three Years Remaining

F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)

Landeskog has become an integral part of the Avalance’s top line as he posted numbers that are comparable to his best seasons of his career as he posted 25 goals and 62 points. The 25-year-old has added excellent balance to that top line since the team moved on from Duchene. The second-overall pick in 2011 might be able to start meeting the high expectations of his draft status if the chemistry between Rantanen and MacKinnon continue.

Cole, Grubauer and Calvert were all recent additions this offseason with Grubauer having already been discussed. However, the team hopes to get some solid value out of both Cole and Calvert at their respective positions. Cole should provide veteran depth to developing defense and if he plays well enough could beat out Girard or Zadorov for a top-four spot, but is more likely to settle into a third-line pairing. Calvert should be able to provide third or fourth-line depth since his lack of offensive skills would likely prevent him from earning a second-line role.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)

The amazing thing is that Colorado only has two players locked up long-term and considering that MacKinnon was one of the top vote-getters for the Hart Trophy last season after the 23-year-old posted 39 goals and 97 points, the team has a steal of a deal with him. With the rising salaries of star players, the fact that Colorado has MacKinnon locked up for five more years at just $6.3MM only makes their situation better and should allow the team to add even more talent over the next couple of years.

The team also has five more years of Johnson at $6MM, which isn’t as good. While Johnson is a solid defensive defenseman, the 30-year-old is injury-prone and hasn’t been able to play 80 games just once in his 10 NHL seasons. He managed nine goals and 25 points in 62 games last season and still remains the team’s second-best defenseman.

Buyouts

D Brooks Orpik ($2.5MM in 2018-19; $1.5MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Avalanche is a young team that just a year ago many considered to be one of the worst in the NHL. Thanks to the superb play of many of their young players, the team should be in good hands. Colorado has plenty of cap space to handle long-term deals that will need to be given to their many youngsters with Rantanen the most likely to be handed a long-term extension and the team may even have the ability to go after a big-name free agent in a year or two if they continue to improve and show they are the most intriguing team in the Central Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Matt Duchene, Ottawa Senators

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The Ottawa Senators look like they may have the keys to the 2019 free agent market at the moment, with Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene all heading into their final seasons. Duchene, the 27-year old center that Ottawa put together a big package of assets for last season, has spoken about how he would like to stay with the Senators if possible in the past, but today denied that the two sides have had any talks. Frank Seravalli of TSN quotes Duchene, who also notes the appeal of unrestricted free agency.

It’s the first time you have that ultimate power as a player and you have to do what’s best for you.

Duchene, like any other pending free agent, just watch John Tavares reach free agency and finally decide to follow his heart back to his hometown. A seven-year, $77MM deal awaited Tavares in Toronto, and while Duchene may not command that kind of commitment he would certainly be a sought after asset next summer. Just today, Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) released an article speaking with other star players who took notice of Tavares’ decision and respect how he took care of himself over any loyalty to his former team.

While none of this means that Duchene’s tenure in Ottawa is coming to an end, it has to be on the mind of the front office after spending so much last season to bring him in. The Senators’ season went downhill quickly after acquiring Duchene, but at the time there was already talk about extending him long-term if possible. GM Pierre Dorion had coveted Duchene for some time, and after a rocky start the star center fulfilled on some of his potential. With 49 points in 68 games for the Senators, Duchene showed that he can still be a very effective offensive player and could be a key member of a group that has been pushed into rebuild status without even trying.

Duchene was eligible for an extension on July 1st, but as he explained to Seravalli there have been more pressing matters to deal with in Ottawa this summer. With the Karlsson situation still hanging over the franchise and training camp opening in a few days, there may not be news on a contract extension for Duchene anytime soon. With every day that passes free agency becomes more and more enticing though, so the Senators have to make sure they make a decision on Duchene’s future before long.

Senators Have Had Contract Extension Talks With Matt Duchene

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

While defenseman Erik Karlsson headlines the notable list of pending unrestricted free agents on the Senators, center Matt Duchene is also in need of a new deal.  He told Lisa Wallace of the Canadian Press that he has spoken with GM Pierre Dorion over the summer about a long-term deal and is hopeful that they can reach an agreement:

I’d love for it to work out. Obviously it’s my home province, three hours from home, Canadian city, it’s a great situation for me so it would be awesome if things could work out that’s for sure.

Duchene was acquired from Colorado in a blockbuster deal that saw Ottawa give up veteran center Kyle Turris (who subsequently signed a long-term extension in Nashville), 2017 first-round pick Shane Bowers, plus their unprotected first-round pick in 2019, among other pieces.  With what they gave up, it’s certainly understandable to think that Ottawa will want to get more than just under two years of Duchene’s services in return for that package.

The 27-year-old put up 57 points in 82 games between the Senators and Avalanche last season, matching his best output since 2013-14.  A similar performance this upcoming campaign should have him in line to eclipse his current $6MM cap hit on the open market.

However, with Ottawa firmly in a rebuilding process, it’s fair to question if locking Duchene up is the best course of action.  While the trade market for wingers has been soft this summer, centers are always a premium to acquire, especially one that is a legitimate top-six player.  With that in mind, the Sens could certainly recoup some of the prospect capital they gave up in the original trade if they move him at some point in 2018-19.

For the time being, the two sides will likely continue to try to work out a long-term extension.  If talks break off though, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name pop up in trade speculation shortly thereafter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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