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Ottawa Senators Preparing For Huge Roster Turnover

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Late last night after much of the hockey news had died down for the day, the Ottawa Senators released a video of defenseman Mark Borowiecki and owner Eugene Melnyk discussing the future of the organization. Touching on subjects from dressing room leadership to overcoming the low expectations for 2018-19, Melnyk made clear he would be staying with the franchise for a long time and will not move it from Ottawa. He also noted an interesting point about roster construction, explaining how quickly the rebuild will get underway:

This coming year we’re going to have 10 out of the 22 players are going to be new. Meaning they’re either rookies or they’ve played maybe under 10 games last year. Then the following year, it’s going to go up to about 15 of the 22, maybe 16. So that’s a total turnover you know, which is exactly what should be in a rebuild. 

Stripping your roster down to the studs and letting a group of young players grow and mature together is often a strategy for struggling teams who want to rebuild, and the Senators saw a similar situation play out just down the road in Toronto a few years ago. In fact, when the Maple Leafs traveled to Ottawa to open the season in 2016 they had seven rookies in the lineup including Auston Matthews, who scored four times despite the loss. That would appear to be the blue print for Melnyk and the Senators as they look to pull a similarly speedy rebuild.

The question though becomes how do they achieve the goal of having 10 rookies on the roster at the beginning of the year. The team currently has at least 19 players—Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Tom Pyatt, Magnus Paajarvi, Max McCormick, Colin White, Marian Gaborik, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Ben Harpur, Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson, Mike Condon and Borowiecki—who played more than 10 games for the organization last season and should at the very least be battling for roster spots. While perhaps Melnyk was exaggerating and players like White and Chabot would still be considered “rookies” given their relative youth and inexperience, it seems likely that there will be substantial turnover in the rest of the group.

We’ve heard for months that Karlsson may be on the block, speculation that will only increase given his complete absence from this video, but other players including Stone and Duchene are both heading into the final years of their contracts and could be shipped out for prospects and picks. If the Senators are committed to a full scorched earth rebuild, they are powerful assets in trade.

At the very least, we should expect the Senators to be involved in trade talks all season. Even though Melnyk and Borowiecki seem excited about playing the underdogs this year, the amount of roster turnover that the owner mentions isn’t possible without some transactions coming through the pipe quickly. Camp starts in just a few days and Senators rookies should be licking their chops on the opportunity that is apparently there for the taking.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $67,318,095 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Kerfoot (one year, $925K)
F Dominic Toninato (one year, $925K)
F J.T. Compher (one year, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (one year, $894K)
F Tyson Jost (two years, $886K)
F Vladislav Kamenev (one year, $833K)
F A.J. Greer (one year, $741K)
D Samuel Girard (two years, $728K)
D Anton Lindholm (one year, $718K)

Potential Bonuses:

Rantanen: $850K
Jost: $850K
Kerfoot: $213K
Girard: $183K
Lindholm: $183K
Compher: $100K
Greer: $75K

Total: $2.47MM

For a successful team that made it into the playoffs and gave the Nashville Predators a run for their money, it’s a bit surprising that the team got quite a bit of contributions from entry-level players, with Rantanen probably at the top of the list of contributors. After a 20-goal season in his first full season on the team, the 21-year-old took that next step and benefitted from playing with Nathan MacKinnon on the first line, breaking out with a 29-goal, 84-point season. With the top line expected to return this season, don’t be surprised if the winger puts up another big season right before he becomes a restricted free agent and could get rewarded with a long-term contract.

The team expects similar success from Kerfoot, who arrived in Colorado as a four-year college free agent from Harvard University. The 24-year-old posted a 19-goal, 43-point rookie campaign last year as a member of the team’s third line and now is expected to move up a notch and battle Jost for the second-line center position, with the loser moving to right wing on the same line. Jost, scored 12 goals last season in his rookie season, but the 2016 first-rounder is expected to break out if he can earn a spot on that second line as well. Both are likely to have promising seasons.

The 23-year-old Compher is another young talent who will be given every chance to fight for a spot as the left wing on the second line. In his first full season, Compher posted 13 goals and could be in line for a bigger season next year. The team also has high expectations for Girard on the defense. One of the key pieces of the Matt Duchene trade, the then 19-year-old defenseman was able to stay in the NHL, averaging 17:39 ATOI once he was traded from Nashville and posted 20 points in his rookie season and should be able to improve on that as he will likely assume a top-four role already next season.

One interesting prospect is Kamenev, who also came over with Girard in the Duchene deal, but the 22-year-old center was injured one game into his Colorado career, and he missed most of the season. Now healthy, Kamenev has a good chance to earn a role on the team’s third line in hopes of putting up good numbers next year. Toninato may also be an interesting addition as he has a chance to pick up the fourth-line center spot after signing last season out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Colin Wilson ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($2.15MM, RFA)
F Sven Andrighetto ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Gabriel Bourque ($950K, UFA)

With cap room at a premium, general manager Joe Sakic had the opportunity to use that to his advantage as he was able to acquire the bloated contract of Brooks Orpik from Washington to acquire their future goaltender in Grubauer, who has posted two straight seasons of .923 save percentages or higher. The Capitals’ backup goalie looks ready for a chance to take a starting role and while he might split time with Varlamov early on, the team’s hopes is that Grubauer steals the job away from him. Varlamov and his $5.9MM contract is set to expire next year, meaning the Avalanche are likely going to allow him to walk.

The team has a pair of defensive players in Zadorov and Nemeth, who will be fighting for contract extensions next season. Zadorov has been a key defensive player for the team, posting 278 hits as well as blocking 106 shots. He even posted a career high in both goals (7) and points (20). Nemeth came over to Colorado from Dallas and immediately jumped into the rotation and led the team with a plus-27 rating and was crucial to the team’s penalty kill and likely will take a third-pairing role once again.

Wilson could be pushed down to the team’s third line or provide a veteran presence on the second line depending if one of the youngsters fails to impress in camp. However, the 28-year-old is coming off of one of his worst-ever seasons as he posted just six goals and 18 points last season. Andrighetto will be another youngster who should get some time in the team’s bottom-six.

Two Years Remaining

D Tyson Barrie ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($1.98MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
D Mark Alt ($725K, UFA)

The 27-year-old took that next step for the Avalanche, putting up career numbers in both goals and points as he posted 14 goals and 57 points last season as he’s proven to be a No. 1 defenseman that the franchise really needs. The team must find a way to lock him up to an extension in July next year.

Soderberg doesn’t post big offensive numbers, but is viewed as a critical shutdown defender, who the Avalanche put up against other teams’ top players. The 32-year-old did put up 16 goals and 37 points last year, but his main responsibility is to center the team’s third line. Nieto will likely end up there with him, who also produced at a career-high as he posted a 15-goal season last year.

Three Years Remaining

F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)

Landeskog has become an integral part of the Avalance’s top line as he posted numbers that are comparable to his best seasons of his career as he posted 25 goals and 62 points. The 25-year-old has added excellent balance to that top line since the team moved on from Duchene. The second-overall pick in 2011 might be able to start meeting the high expectations of his draft status if the chemistry between Rantanen and MacKinnon continue.

Cole, Grubauer and Calvert were all recent additions this offseason with Grubauer having already been discussed. However, the team hopes to get some solid value out of both Cole and Calvert at their respective positions. Cole should provide veteran depth to developing defense and if he plays well enough could beat out Girard or Zadorov for a top-four spot, but is more likely to settle into a third-line pairing. Calvert should be able to provide third or fourth-line depth since his lack of offensive skills would likely prevent him from earning a second-line role.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)

The amazing thing is that Colorado only has two players locked up long-term and considering that MacKinnon was one of the top vote-getters for the Hart Trophy last season after the 23-year-old posted 39 goals and 97 points, the team has a steal of a deal with him. With the rising salaries of star players, the fact that Colorado has MacKinnon locked up for five more years at just $6.3MM only makes their situation better and should allow the team to add even more talent over the next couple of years.

The team also has five more years of Johnson at $6MM, which isn’t as good. While Johnson is a solid defensive defenseman, the 30-year-old is injury-prone and hasn’t been able to play 80 games just once in his 10 NHL seasons. He managed nine goals and 25 points in 62 games last season and still remains the team’s second-best defenseman.

Buyouts

D Brooks Orpik ($2.5MM in 2018-19; $1.5MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Avalanche is a young team that just a year ago many considered to be one of the worst in the NHL. Thanks to the superb play of many of their young players, the team should be in good hands. Colorado has plenty of cap space to handle long-term deals that will need to be given to their many youngsters with Rantanen the most likely to be handed a long-term extension and the team may even have the ability to go after a big-name free agent in a year or two if they continue to improve and show they are the most intriguing team in the Central Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Matt Duchene, Ottawa Senators

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The Ottawa Senators look like they may have the keys to the 2019 free agent market at the moment, with Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene all heading into their final seasons. Duchene, the 27-year old center that Ottawa put together a big package of assets for last season, has spoken about how he would like to stay with the Senators if possible in the past, but today denied that the two sides have had any talks. Frank Seravalli of TSN quotes Duchene, who also notes the appeal of unrestricted free agency.

It’s the first time you have that ultimate power as a player and you have to do what’s best for you.

Duchene, like any other pending free agent, just watch John Tavares reach free agency and finally decide to follow his heart back to his hometown. A seven-year, $77MM deal awaited Tavares in Toronto, and while Duchene may not command that kind of commitment he would certainly be a sought after asset next summer. Just today, Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) released an article speaking with other star players who took notice of Tavares’ decision and respect how he took care of himself over any loyalty to his former team.

While none of this means that Duchene’s tenure in Ottawa is coming to an end, it has to be on the mind of the front office after spending so much last season to bring him in. The Senators’ season went downhill quickly after acquiring Duchene, but at the time there was already talk about extending him long-term if possible. GM Pierre Dorion had coveted Duchene for some time, and after a rocky start the star center fulfilled on some of his potential. With 49 points in 68 games for the Senators, Duchene showed that he can still be a very effective offensive player and could be a key member of a group that has been pushed into rebuild status without even trying.

Duchene was eligible for an extension on July 1st, but as he explained to Seravalli there have been more pressing matters to deal with in Ottawa this summer. With the Karlsson situation still hanging over the franchise and training camp opening in a few days, there may not be news on a contract extension for Duchene anytime soon. With every day that passes free agency becomes more and more enticing though, so the Senators have to make sure they make a decision on Duchene’s future before long.

Senators Have Had Contract Extension Talks With Matt Duchene

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While defenseman Erik Karlsson headlines the notable list of pending unrestricted free agents on the Senators, center Matt Duchene is also in need of a new deal.  He told Lisa Wallace of the Canadian Press that he has spoken with GM Pierre Dorion over the summer about a long-term deal and is hopeful that they can reach an agreement:

I’d love for it to work out. Obviously it’s my home province, three hours from home, Canadian city, it’s a great situation for me so it would be awesome if things could work out that’s for sure.

Duchene was acquired from Colorado in a blockbuster deal that saw Ottawa give up veteran center Kyle Turris (who subsequently signed a long-term extension in Nashville), 2017 first-round pick Shane Bowers, plus their unprotected first-round pick in 2019, among other pieces.  With what they gave up, it’s certainly understandable to think that Ottawa will want to get more than just under two years of Duchene’s services in return for that package.

The 27-year-old put up 57 points in 82 games between the Senators and Avalanche last season, matching his best output since 2013-14.  A similar performance this upcoming campaign should have him in line to eclipse his current $6MM cap hit on the open market.

However, with Ottawa firmly in a rebuilding process, it’s fair to question if locking Duchene up is the best course of action.  While the trade market for wingers has been soft this summer, centers are always a premium to acquire, especially one that is a legitimate top-six player.  With that in mind, the Sens could certainly recoup some of the prospect capital they gave up in the original trade if they move him at some point in 2018-19.

For the time being, the two sides will likely continue to try to work out a long-term extension.  If talks break off though, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name pop up in trade speculation shortly thereafter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Pacioretty, Luongo, Boedker

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If Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty is being genuine about wanting to stay in Montreal for the rest of his career, the team has a lot of thinking to do whether the 29-year-old winger is worth a long-term deal. Sure, he had posted five straight 30-goal seasons (if you don’t include the strike-shortened 2012-13 year), but after a 16-goal campaign last season and the fact that he’ll be 30 when he starts his new contract, there are a lot of variables that the Canadiens need to consider after the team handed goaltender Carey Price an eight-year, $84MM extension a year ago that’s already starting to look questionable and it hasn’t even started yet.

One obvious way for things to work out perfectly would be if Pacioretty can rebound and put up another banner season. Another 30-goal performance would undoubtedly make the 2017-18 season look like a fluke and would make it a whole lot easier to sign him to a new contract, according to Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey. However, the scribe also points out that he must improve on his mental game as well as Pacioretty has a tendency to be streaky and get down on himself when he’s not producing. It’s likely, if the veteran captain can’t make that adjustment, he’ll be heading out of town just like Andrei Markov, Alexander Radulov and P.K. Subban did in past years.

  • NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley writes that veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo is focusing more on his health this year after two injury-plagued campaigns that has kept him out of 89 games. The 39-year-old goaltender, who will turn 40 during the season, still has four years remaining on the 12-year, $64MM deal he signed with Vancouver in 2009. He has spent more than 90 minutes a day of extra time with goaltending coach Robb Tallas, focusing on his surgically repaired hip from 2016 and the groin tear he sustained last season. “Back in the day, I used to show up half an hour before I went on the ice and just throw the gear on, but these are the things I need to do be ready, to be loose and make sure everything is working properly,” Luongo said. “The main thing is I understand what I need to do as far as preparation to be where I need to be to be healthy. After my hip surgery, once I started feeling good, I kind of neglected it. You think you are back to normal, but you are not. You always have to keep on it to make sure you keep it strong and loose.” While he’s missed quite a bit of time, Luongo’s numbers haven’t suffered as he posted a .929 save percentage and three shutouts in 35 appearances.
  • Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Ottawa Senators are considering using newly acquired winger Mikkel Boedker as a first-line option alongside Mark Stone and Matt Duchene next season. Boedker, who was acquired as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the San Jose Sharks, has posted up-and down numbers the last several years, including a 10-goal season in 2016-17 and then 15-goal season a year ago. The scribe writes that putting Boedker on the first line will be a dangerous combination as Boedker isn’t a great two-way player and historically is a player that thrives on the power play, but rarely during even strength.

Atlantic Notes: Senators’ Youth, Walker, Howard, Nelson

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The Ottawa Senators seem to have little go right over the last year or so, whether it was the unhappiness of their star defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Matt Duchene trade in which the team traded away their No. 1 overall pick for next season to Colorado. With the team shipping off players left and right, that pick could be a costly one for the team.

However, the Ottawa Sun’s Ken Warren writes that who the Senators need to look at the success of the New Jersey Devils last season had when they opted to add a struggling team with youth. Just a season ago, the Devils had a 28-40-14 season and just 70 points. However, New Jersey brought in an infusion of youth, including Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Will Butcher, as well as second-year players like Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha. That group altered the makeup of the struggling franchise and turned last season into a 44-29-9 season for 97 points, an increase of 27 points on the year. The team even qualified for the playoffs.

The Senators, who are actually loaded with quality prospects within their system, could get a similar infusion from their prospects. That possibility might start with 2018 first-rounder Brady Tkachuk, who opted to turn pro last week and has a chance to walk right into the Senators lineup. The team has other young players who are ready for full seasons this year, including Colin White, Logan Brown, Thomas Chabot, Filip Chlapik and Drake Batherson. The team also has last year’s second-round pick Alex Formenton, who made the Senators squad out of training camp last year, who could also make the jump this year. Some success from some of those kids could make people forget a little about some of the franchise’s struggles.

  • Former Toronto Maple Leafs enforcer Kurt Walker passed away Friday night at the age of 64 after a brief illness, according to the Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornby. Walker, who might have been better known after his short NHL career, was an advocate for retired NHL players. His efforts nearly a decade ago helped retired players and opened doors for affordable health care, concussion research on NHL retired players and stem-cell research. Walker played three seasons in the NHL, all for the Maple Leafs, playing in 71 games, tallying four goals, five assists and 152 penalty minutes.
  • Mlive’s Ansar Khan writes that the Detroit Red Wings need a solid year out of 34-year-old goaltender Jimmy Howard, who has one year remaining on his contract. Howard started the 2017-18 season strong, but struggled in the second-half of the season, finishing the year with a 2.85 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 60 games. The team may have to lighten his workload now that the team added Jonathan Bernier, but if Howard will have to have a better year to earn another contract with the team. Khan writes the team might want to give him a two-year extension as they lack goalie prospects in their system.
  • The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington writes that Buffalo Sabres defensive prospect Casey Nelson has a good chance at breaking camp with the Sabres this year because he now requires Buffalo to pass him through waivers to send him to the AHL. Nelson, has played 55 games for Buffalo over the past three years and showed some promise last year, putting up three goals and eight assists in 37 games. However, because the team could conceivably lose him if they attempt to pass him through waivers, they may be more likely to hold onto him and send other prospects like Brendan Guhle to the AHL since he doesn’t require waivers.

Central Notes: Tarasenko, Kunin, Kamenev, Ranta

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When St. Louis Blues’ Vladimir Tarasenko separated his left shoulder on the final game of the season last year, he underwent surgery the following day and was expected to be out four to six months, which theoretically coincided with the start of the regular season if he needed the latter amount of time to recuperate.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann writes that Tarasenko just hit the four-month date in his recovery and he expects to be ready for the start of training camp in a month. He was cleared to skate and began skating nearly a week ago, but he has yet to test his repaired shoulder.

“I need to talk about it with the doctors more,” Tarasenko told the team’s website, “but I’m cleared to skate with the group, but only with some contact right now. But I can shoot. I feel great and I feel stronger. I’m ready for the season.”

Assuming there are no setbacks, Tarasenko should be ready. With a group of new additions to the Blues this offseason, they will need the 26-year-old to be ready to go if they want a chance to compete for a playoff spot this year. Tarasenko had a bit of a down year, posting 33 goals and 66 points.

  • NHL.com’s Dan Myers writes that Minnesota Wild forward Luke Kunin still is not 100 percent after tearing his ACL five months ago against the Detroit Red Wings and undergoing surgery four months ago to repair it. However, the 20-year-old has already been skating for three or four weeks now and feels that he should be ready for training camp in September. The team’s first-round pick in 2016 hopes to make the club out of camp after appearing in 19 games for the Minnesota Wild last season. “I try not to look too far ahead, just take it week-by-week, keep getting stronger and more comfortable on the ice and just get that confidence back,” Kunin said. “It was definitely nice to sort of check that off I guess, but it’s not a goal of mine to just be up and down. I want to be there full time, I want to be there for a long time and be an impact player that’s going to help the team win.”
  • NHL.com’s Maddie Karr takes a look back at the disappointing rookie campaign of Colorado Avalanche winger Vladislav Kamenev. Considering the haul that the Avalanche received in the Matt Duchene trade from the Ottawa Senators, many people forgot about Kamenev who has become an afterthought after the team received defenseman Samuel Girard and the Senators 2019 first-round pick, which could potentially be the No. 1 pick. However, Kamenev looked to be a key piece as the team recalled him from the AHL just nine days after the trade, but the high-scoring winger instead suffered a broken arm in that first game and missed 50 games. Despite just getting into three NHL games with the Avalanche, Kamenev still has a good chance to break with the team as a bottom-six forward if all goes well. “I know that he’s a trusted defensive player, but he has a great skillset,” Colorado head coach Jared Bednar said. “He has good hands, good feet, smart player, committed on the defensive side of the puck.”
  • Another Colorado Avalanche prospect, Sampo Ranta, the team’s third-round pick in this year’s draft who is expected to attend the University of Wisconsin, may not attend there after all, reports Providence Journal’s Mark Divver. The scribe writes that Ranta has hit an admission snag at Wisconsin and suggests the 6-foot-2 winger could find himself at Boston University.

Poll: Ottawa’s Impending Free Agents

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The Ottawa Senators are a team in trouble. The Senators finished with a 28-43-11 record last season for a total of 67 points, second-lowest in the NHL. The team also placed close to the bottom in both goals for and goals against, which combined for a the league’s second-worst goal differential of -70. Ottawa dealt with a public relations nightmare this summer surrounding Mike Hoffman and ended up having to deal the dependable scorer away for pennies on the dollar. They have thus far failed to add any difference-makers via trade or free agency this off-season as well. On top of that, owner Eugene Melnyk is reportedly hemorrhaging money and appears to have a singular focus of spending as little as possible this season. That task is made difficult by a roster that features overpaid, ineffective veterans such as Bobby Ryan, Marian Gaborik, and Mikkel Boedker and a 37-year-old goalie coming off the worst season of his career in Craig Anderson. The Senators are the popular pick to be the worst team in the NHL in 2018-19, but even that has no silver lining, as the Colorado Avalanche own Ottawa’s first-round pick, potentially the first overall pick in next year’s draft.

It almost seems like so much is going wrong in Ottawa that things can only get better. Unfortunately, that is simply not the case. Early in this off-season, the Senators made a contract extension offer to all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson, who is slated for free agency next summer. When Karlsson dismissed this initial offer, the team made it know that they were open to trading the face of the franchise. Just this week, the team was unable to come to terms on a long-term extension with top scorer Mark Stone, instead signing him to a one-year deal that will make him an unrestricted free agent after the season, where he will potentially be the biggest available name behind Karlsson. Perhaps the biggest bargain on the team, Ryan Dzingel’s team-friendly contract runs out after next season and the young forward will want a significant raise, even if that means it doesn’t come from the penny-pinching Senators. Finally, Matt Duchene, who Ottawa gave up substantial trade capital to acquire early last season – when their future looked much brighter – is also entering the final year of his contract and may not want to stick around any longer in Ottawa after the team fell apart soon after his acquisition.

With Hoffman and Derick Brassard already gone, the Senators face a very real possibility that they will begin the 2019-20 season without all of their top six scorers from the 2017-18 season (make that top seven if they succeed in trading Ryan). Between the value each would have on the open market prompting them to test the waters and the mounting pressure on the team to trade them during what will almost certainly be another season of struggles, the odds of each of them returning is slim. If the team was second-worst last year, did nothing to improve this off-season, and doesn’t have the pick that could otherwise land them a franchise cornerstone in next year’s draft, it is scary to think about how much worse things could get in Ottawa if all four of these prominent free agents depart.

This begs the question: how many of Karlsson, Stone, Dzingel, and Duchene will still be Senators this time next year?

Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares

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When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.

While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.

The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.

While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.

One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.

While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.

Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.

 

 

Avalanche Prepared To Pick Fourth If Senators Fold

at CDT | by 11 Comments

The first fireworks of the upcoming NHL Draft may show up at pick #4. When the Ottawa Senators acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche, part of the substantial package was a top-ten protected 2018 first-round pick. The terms of the deal afforded the Senators a choice between trading this year’s pick or next year’s pick to Colorado if the pick landed within the top ten spots. Finishing the season with the second-worst record in the league, Ottawa was obviously locked in to the top ten. Even after bad luck dropped them to fourth overall in the NHL Draft Lottery, GM Pierre Dorion confirmed that they would hold on to the pick this year and defer to the 2019 first-rounder.

However, that was back in April and things change. It seems more likely than ever that Erik Karlsson and/or Mike Hoffman will be traded away from Ottawa this off-season and that doesn’t bode well for a Duchene extension either. There also continue to be frustrations over the management of owner Eugene Melnyk and the fiscal future of the organization. Ottawa seems far from a free agent destination right now and no closer to turning around one of the worst records in the NHL. The initial Stanley Cup odds for next season reflect this, as the Senators at 100/1 odds are alone in last place. It’s understandable for public relations purposes that the Sens keep this year’s #4, both to add an exciting new prospect and to all but confirm to fans that the outlook for next season is better this season. It may not be the smart move though.

There is a trio of top prospects in the draft this year: defenseman Rasmus Dahlin and forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. After that, there is no consensus on the next-best player. In fact, the fourth overall pick more or less marks the beginning of a lesser tier of prospects; not exactly a power position in 2018. Next year, the Senators are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs and will be a lottery team with a chance to land in the top three with a lucky draw. According to odds makers, they are also the favorite to finish 31st, which would give them the best odds at the first overall pick – highly-touted franchise center Jack Hughes – and would mean that they could fall no farther than fourth again. There is risk in giving up a pick as high as #4 this year, but there is also substantial risk in not giving it away, blowing up the roster, and simply hoping for a better finish next year. The pain that the organization and the fans would feel about losing #1 after another brutal season would be far worse than giving up a non-consensus top player at #4 this year. The mounting pressure of that very real possibility could force the Senators to give in and surrender the 2018 pick.

The Avalanche know this and are remaining vigilant. The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers caught up with Colorado Director of Scouting Alan Hepple, who says the team knows what direction they would go in if they wind up with #4 this year after all. Per Chambers, the Senators can wait all the way until they are on the clock to make the pick to instead complete the trade this year. Hepple doesn’t think that will be the case, but the Avs are prepared in case it is. They certainly wouldn’t mind the spot, as the team nabbed defensive phenom Cale Makar in that same draft slot last year and would be happy to make a repeat performance. With their own pick at #16, Hepple says that the team will simply take the best player available, regardless of position, but at #4 they have identified a more pressing organizational need, as they did with the UMass puck-mover Makar last year.

If the first three picks go as expected and Ottawa isn’t thrilled by the next-best name on their draft board, they could crumble under the pressure of the potential repercussions: losing a higher pick next year. It could pay off or it could be a mistake in hindsight; there is no way to tell with a lot riding on the decision. However, if they do, Colorado is ready to jump in. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it remains a possibility, and an intriguing one, as draft day approaches.

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