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Matt Duchene

One Year Later: Matt Duchene Will Dictate The Senators’ Future

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A year ago today, the Ottawa Senators made a three-team deal with the Colorado Avalanche and the Nashville Predators. Since then, names like Erik Karlsson, Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, and Tomas Tatar (twice) have all been traded. Yet, it’s that November 5th deal that is still the most memorable recent trade for many, due to both the immediate impact and the lasting results.

In that trade, Ottawa – at a contract impasse with center Kyle Turris – dealt he, first-round prospect forward Shane Bowers, goaltender Andrew Hammond, a first-round pick, and a third-round pick to Colorado. The Avs then flipped Turris to Nashville for defenseman Samuel Girard, forward Vladislav Kamenev, and a second-round pick. It was quite a haul for Colorado and they have yet to even use either of Ottawa’s picks, including a likely lottery pick in the first round next year. The Predators meanwhile signed Turris to a six-year extension and he has 53 points in 79 games since joining the team. The return for all of this for the Senators? Matt Duchene, who a year later is in limbo with an expiring contract and a team that is far from the contender he was promised.

As TSN’s Ian Mendes notes, Senators GM Pierre Dorion was coming off a 2016-17 season that saw his team make a run to the Eastern Conference final. When he acquired Duchene, he thought it could be the final piece of the puzzle to get them back and through that third round of the playoffs. Instead, Ottawa sunk to the second-worst record in the NHL. It’s too late to reverse that trade or the events of last season. The team could have simply traded Turris for picks and prospects at the deadline, as Mendes points out, and certainly could have found a deal for a top-six forward this off-season that was far less expensive. Their first-round pick in 2019 could be first overall, franchise center Jack Hughes, and there’s nothing they could do. Boston University standout Bowers could blossom into a top-line forward, but there’s no recourse for that. The only element of the trade left in the control of Dorion and the Senators is the future of Duchene and with it potentially the future of the team.

Ottawa is faced with two choices this season: pay Duchene or trade him. The 2009 third overall pick carries a $6MM cap hit on his current contract. If he were to hit the open market, he would certainly be due a raise. Duchene’s alleged reason for wanting out of Colorado last season was ironically that he didn’t want to play through a rebuild. If that is still his mindset, it would take a substantial sum from the Senators to keep him around. Owner Eugene Melnyk has been unwilling to pay his better player their fair value, leading to the Karlsson trade and likely more moves to come. Will he make an exception for Duchene? If not, the Senators need to move Duchene and sooner rather than later. The trade deadline will be the final opportunity to trade the star center, who will have a long list of suitors, but his value drops each day leading up to that point. Dorion will likely never get back a package commensurate with what he gave up for Duchene, but his best chance to get close is to trade him as soon as possible to the highest bidder.

Either option serves to benefit the Senators. Duchene may not be a superstar, but he is a talented, well-rounded player who is capable of leading Ottawa out of the basement if provided with at least a little support. On the other side, the team cannot escape the reality of their own rebuild and could greatly use the trade capital that they would gain from a Duchene trade. The worst case scenario – and a veritable death knell for the franchise – would be to make neither decision, opting not to trade Duchene and waiting and hoping for an extension agreement only to watch him walk away in free agency. One year later, this notorious trade is still so prevalent around the NHL. The Senators should celebrate the anniversary by making another major move with Duchene – a new contract or another trade – as soon as humanly possible.

Snapshots: “Trade Bait”, Lindholm, Spezza

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The second month of the NHL season is underway and with it comes the first iteration of TSN’s “Trade Bait” board. To no surprise, unsigned Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander tops the list. With the countdown at 28 days until the December 1st deadline for Nylander to sign and play in the NHL this season, the impasse between the two sides is desperately in need of a resolution, and with each day that goes by, a trade looks more and more likely. TSN’s Frank Seravalli notes that it was the first week of November last year when No. 1-ranked trade bait player Matt Duchene was traded away, making it entirely possible that a Nylander trade or other big name move could drop in the next few days. Joining Nylander in the top six of the list are recent rumor mill highlights Kevin Hayes of the New York Rangers and Alec Martinez and Tanner Pearson of the Los Angeles Kings, as well as summer trade bait board holdout Mats Zuccarello, also of the Rangers, and perennial rumor monger Gustav Nyquist of the Detroit Red Wings. Both free agency-bound Columbus Blue Jackets superstars – Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin – feature in the top ten, as does a possible Nylander return piece Brett Pesce of the Carolina Hurricanes. A surprise addition is Winnipeg Jets defenseman Tyler Myers, who seems unlikely to move in the midst of what the Jets hope is a Stanley Cup-caliber season. So too is Wayne Simmonds, who the Philadelphia Flyers seemingly would like to re-sign and keep on as a leader and core contributor, but the Flyers’ success this season will likely determine his availability. The trade board is limited to just 15 names right now, but this initial list certainly features plenty of talent and some names that have already featured prominently in rumors. TSN may have perfect timing, as the NHL trade market seems ready to heat up.

  • One of the off-season’s biggest trades almost went differently, writes Sportsnet’s Luke Fox. Fox talked to new Calgary Flames head coach Bill Peters recently, who stated that he expected a different package from a different team entirely in return for defenseman Dougie Hamilton, only to find that his former club, the Carolina Hurricanes, had offered the top package of Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin. Peters (obviously) says that he likes the way the deal turned out. While Hanifin is off to a slow start in Calgary, Lindholm has been an excellent fit next to Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau on the top line and currently sports a 24.3% shooting percentage to go with a team-leading nine goals and total of 14 points.
  • Fox also recently spoke with Dallas Stars center Jason Spezza, who this past week played in his 1,000th NHL game, about how he is approaching a contract year. Spezza was transparent with his answer:

“Not when you’re 35. You don’t care about the contract years… I just want to play the year, have a good year. I want to be back here next year. The money doesn’t matter. I just want to play and make sure I have a good role… It’s different when you’re at this point in my career. I just want to be on a team that has a chance to win. So, no, I can’t say that’s once played into my mind… That time has passed in my career. I’m just looking to play and be on a good team and have a good role and contribute… If you put the work into it, you get rewarded with big contracts. I can honestly say I don’t think I’ve ever played the game for the money.”

Spezza’s honesty is refreshing, but he also contradicts himself with a scenario that is likely to unfold as the season progresses. Spezza states that he wants to be back in Dallas next season, yet also wants a chance to finally win the Stanley Cup. Those two things may not coincide soon enough for the veteran center. The Stars currently share the 14th-best record in the NHL, but sit sixth out of seven in the powerhouse Central Division and have struggled to score goals early on this season. If Dallas cannot improve over the course of the season, Spezza will become an attractive trade rental candidate, especially since his eight points thus far indicate a bounce-back season compared to a disappointing 2017-18 campaign. Dallas may also be a few years away from really competing with the likes of Nashville and Winnipeg in the Central. A desire to win may make a continued career with the Stars less likely, but would make Spezza’s decision to waive his No-Movement Clause and choices in free agency much easier.

Boston Bruins Won’t Wait To Add Help Up Front

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By most standards, the Boston Bruins are off to a strong start in 2018-19, sharing the fourth best record in the NHL. By their own standards, the campaign has been less than spectacular thus far due to the heavy reliance on the first line. The grouping of Patrice Bergeron between Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak is considered by many to be the best line in the NHL. Through twelve games, Pastrnak is tied for the league lead in goals with 11 and has a total of 16 points, Bergeron is third in the league in scoring with 19 points, and Marchand has hardly looked himself and has still contributed 15 points. However, beyond those three, scoring has been hard to come by. According to Matt Kalman of WEEI Boston, it’s not a problem that president Cam Neely and company are willing to “wait too long” to solve.

Neely knows that the Bruins cannot possibly top their performance from last season, a Round Two defeat at the hands of the division rival Tampa Bay Lightning, with just one line of production. Yet, that is more or less what they have had so far. Beyond the top line, second line mainstay David Krejci has been playing well with nine points to date. However, he has had little help, as frequent linemates Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen have failed to build upon breakout rookie campaigns and have been held to just three points apiece. Calder hopeful Ryan Donato has been anything but and was recently demoted after recording just a single point in eleven games. Even surprise top-nine regulars Joakim Nordstrom and Anders Bjork have just two points each. This also comes after prospects Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, and Jack Studnicka all failed to claim an open third-line center spot in camp, a role initially held by veteran David Backes, who was scoreless through seven games before getting injured. Kalman recently opined that Backes should not necessarily even return to the Bruins lineup once healthy.

Neely told Kalman that “we recognize we don’t want to sit around, wait too long, for something that may or may not happen”, as management’s patience with the lack of secondary scoring is running out. He spoke individually on each of the four struggling younsters – DeBrusk, Heinen, Donato, and Bjork – expressing varying degrees of trust in their ability to bounce back, but simply said as a group the young forwards need to improve in all three zones. There is no reason to think that any of the four will turn things around, especially without some shakeup to the roster.

So what could be the next move? Speaking with TSN 1050 in Toronto yesterday, insider Darren Dreger stated that he thinks the Bruins would be willing to part with one of Heinen, 23, or Bjork, 22, in the right deal. The pair share a similar skill set and ceiling and neither has made much of an impact thus far. Of the two, Heinen’s stock is higher, fresh off of a 47-point campaign that placed him among the top ten in rookie scorers. However, Bjork himself was on pace for a 30+ point season prior to season-ending injury and has looked the better of the two thus far this season. Using the last-place Los Angeles Kings as an example, Dreger speculates that a cap-strapped club like L.A. might be willing to part with a Tyler Toffoli or Tanner Pearson for a package based around a young, affordable, and controllable asset like Heinen or Bjork. Beyond Dreger’s hypothetical, the Bruins could also deal from their wealth of defensive prospects or dangle a mid-round draft pick in order to land some help. Established young forwards of any kind would likely be the primary target group, but impending unrestricted free agent centers could also make an immediate difference. The Bruins could kick the tires on the likes of Matt Duchene, Kevin Hayes, Jason Spezza, and Brock Nelson before too long. Neely has made it clear that the team won’t wait to fix their secondary scoring and a deal could occur any time now.

East Notes: Skinner, Dermott, Duchene

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Sabres winger Jeff Skinner is off to a strong start with his new team after Buffalo acquired him in the offseason from Carolina.  Through his first 11 games this season, he has a dozen points to lead the team in scoring.  While the team is certainly pleased with his performance thus far, Skinner is also bolstering his case when it comes to his next contract.

He currently is making a $6MM salary with a $5.725MM cap hit and is poised to improve upon that as a pending UFA this summer.  Jared Clinton of The Hockey News suggests that the best comparable player may actually be the player he ultimately replaced on the Sabres in winger Evander Kane.  Kane signed a seven-year, $49MM contract this offseason but Skinner has actually been the more productive player in terms of goals per game and points per game over that span.  Fortunately for Buffalo, they have plenty of salary cap space to work with if they want to give the 26-year-old that type of raise as they have just under $55MM committed to 14 players for next season, per CapFriendly.

More from the East:

  • Maple Leafs defenseman Travis Dermott has recovered from the illness that kept him out of the last two games, notes TSN’s Kristen Shilton (Twitter link). However, Toronto plans to give him a little more time to rest and plans to play Martin Marincin for at least one more game in his place.  After making an impact after a midseason recall last year, Dermott has been quieter out of the gate this season with just a single assist through nine games.
  • Despite his trade request and eventual departure from the Avalanche last season, Senators center Matt Duchene hasn’t closed the book on playing in Colorado again down the road. Speaking with reporters, including Postmedia’s Ken Warren, Duchene indicated that he could see himself returning to the Avs one day.  The veteran is a pending unrestricted free agent but it would certainly be surprising to see him head back to Colorado so soon after forcing a trade.

East Notes: Point, Dzingel, Duchene, Wilson

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Lightning GM Julien BriseBois held contract extension discussions this week with the agent for center Brayden Point, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic on TSN’s Insider Trading (video link).  However, both sides agreed to shelve those talks until after the season.  He made quite an impact for Tampa Bay last year with 32 goals and 34 assists and is off to a strong start in 2018-19 with four points in as many games heading into tonight’s contest.  That’s going to have him in line for a significant raise on the league-minimum $650K salary ($686K cap hit) that he’s receiving this season even though he won’t have salary arbitration rights.  However, it won’t be until the offseason now until he finds out how much his next deal will be for.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • The Senators are expected to have winger Ryan Dzingel back in the lineup on Saturday against Montreal, notes TSN’s Brent Wallace (Twitter link). He has missed the last two games due to a lower-body injury.  Meanwhile, while the team was hopeful that defenseman Cody Ceci (upper body) and winger Alex Formenton (concussion) would also be ready to play Saturday, head coach Guy Boucher indicated that both will be out until next week at the earliest.
  • Still with the Senators, center Matt Duchene confirmed to reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that his agent held preliminary extension discussions with GM Pierre Dorion earlier this week. It’s expected that if an agreement can’t be reached between now and the trade deadline in February that he will wind up being dealt as a rental player.  Duchene has a $6MM cap hit with a $6.5MM salary this season and it’s likely that his next contract will eclipse that.
  • Tom Wilson’s suspension appeal with the league was a lengthy one, reports Sportsnet’s John Shannon (Twitter link), who notes that the hearing took over seven hours altogether. However, no ruling from Commissioner Gary Bettman is expected until next week as he will use the weekend to review the transcripts.  Wilson has served the first six games of a 20-game suspension and is currently eligible to return to the Capitals lineup on November 21st.

2018-19 NCAA Players To Watch

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Just like their professional and junior counterparts, the college hockey season is underway. With each passing year, the NCAA’s influence on the world of hockey grows. The NHL boasts more than a few top rookies fresh out of the college ranks this season and those still in school in 2018-19 will soon join them. This year’s crop of talent is sticking with the trend, with several players in need of watching:

The Recent Draft Picks

D Quinn Hughes, Michigan (VAN): Hughes very nearly signed his first pro contract with the Vancouver Canucks this summer before deciding to return to Michigan. The seventh overall pick back in June, Hughes was the second defenseman off the board behind top pick Rasmus Dahlin, and many even saw No. 7 as being a steal for Vancouver. An electric skater who can’t help but draw the eyes of spectators as he moves effortlessly around the ice, Hughes pairs his skating ability with the vision and positioning that makes him a threat in all three zones. Hughes also has an NCAA season under his belt already and should be even more prepared to dominate opponents this season. Hughes is a complete two-way defenseman and the centerpiece of a Wolverines team that was a Frozen Four finalist last year. Hughes himself could be eyeing the Hobey Baker Award this season. Michigan almost had Hughes’ younger brother and presumptive top 2019 pick Jack Hughes joining them this season, before he decided to stick with the U.S. National Development Program for another year before almost certainly turning pro.

F Oliver Wahlstrom, Boston College (NYI): Perhaps the most gifted goal scorer of the 2018 draft class, Wahlstrom was a late addition to BC’s freshman class, changing his commitment from Harvard, and the Eagles could not be happier. Wahlstrom is a rare combination of both high-end skill and hard-nosed play who dominated with the U.S. National Development Program last year. The right winger has had the attention of scouts for his puck-handling ability since he was nine years old, but as he’s grown up he has also filled out his frame and added a menacing physical element to his game. Wahlstrom can skate and possess the puck as well as anyone, but is even more of a threat as the go-to shooter, which he will be skating with a roster of play-makers up front for BC. Wahlstrom could be the next big NHL power forward and may very well be one-and-done in the NCAA if he continues to score at a torrid pace this year and force the hand of the rebuilding New York Islanders, who selected him with the eleventh pick this past year.

F Joel Farabee, Boston Univ. (PHI): Wahlstrom’s teammate with the U.S. National Development program last season, Farabee was the one feeding Wahlstrom most of the time with 43 assists to his linemate’s 48 goals. Farabee is now a cross-town rival of Wahlstrom’s as he joins the uber-talented BU Terriers. Farabee is a threatening presence in the offensive zone, but is even more dangerous due to his two-way ability. An extremely intelligent winger who is beyond his years in terms of decision-making and positioning, Farabee is as responsible a freshman forward as you can find in the NCAA. He may not light up the score sheet right away this year, but will no doubt make a difference for the title-chasing Terriers. Farabee’s style bodes well for an NHL career in Philadelphia, after the Flyers used the No. 14 pick on him in June.

F Jay O’Brien, Providence (PHI): Some considered it a reach when the Flyers used their second first-round pick on O’Brien, another college-bound forward and one who was coming from the prep school ranks with Thayer Academy. However, the 19th overall pick more than earned his draft slot after scoring 80 points in 30 games while also displaying an impressive two-way game. O’Brien now bring his talents to Providence, a program that lost their top two scorers from last season and are looking for their next star forward. O’Brien could emerge as both the top scoring threat and dependable defensive forward for the Friars in his first collegiate season. O’Brien is also ready to take on Hockey East competition with a gritty games that all Philly and Providence fans will appreciate.

The Soon-To-Be NHLers

D Cale Makar, UMass (COL): Few will argue that Makar isn’t the best prospect in the NCAA, if not the best drafted player not playing in the NHL. The smooth-skating defenseman was the fourth overall pick in 2017 by the Colorado and would be skating on the Avs’ top pair right now if he had not committed himself to Amherst and to entering the pros as well-rounded as possible. Makar possesses elite puck-handling skills and vision and can out-skate almost anyone in the college ranks. Makar should improve upon his 21 points in an up-and-down freshman campaign and could flirt with point-per-game production from the blue line. The newly-named UMass captain, along with talented fellow defenseman Mario Ferraro (SJS) and top forward John Leonard (SJ) have the Minutemen thinking NCAA Tournament for the first time in years, while Makar could easily be a Hobey Baker candidate.

G Jake Oettinger, Boston Univ. (DAL): Oettinger nearly turned pro this off-season, but returns to BU with his sights set on backstopping the team to a national championship. A first-round pick at No. 26 in 2017, Oettinger was selected by the Dallas Stars with the expectations that he would be the heir apparent in net. Even with the emergence of Colton Point, the Dallas job is still there for the taking. The team’s veteran duo of Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin won’t be around forever and Oettinger could conceivably compete for starts as early as 2020. Expect the big goaltender to put up stellar numbers behind a deep Terrier defense this season before joining the pro ranks next year.

F Ryan Poehling, St. Cloud (MTL): Poehling was drafted for his intelligent, professional, two-way style and Montreal hoped he would develop into a capable bottom-six center. However, they have to be pleased with the improvement in his offense, after he registered 31 points in 36 games for a St. Cloud team that was top seed in the NCAA Tournament. Poehling lacks the high-end skill of other first-round prospects, but the 2017 No. 25 pick makes up for his skating and hands with positioning and composure. Poehling should again improve this season while maintaining his elite defensive play and could be in the running for the Hobey Baker Award, especially if the Huskies are dominant yet again. The Canadiens prospect should then compete for a roster spot right away next season.

The Trade Return

F Josh Norris, Michigan (OTT): The recent centerpiece prospect of the Erik Karlsson trade, a lot of eyes in Ottawa will be on the performance of Norris this season. The entire top line of the Michigan Wolverines’ Final Four roster has moved on to the pros, leaving Norris as the team’s top center. The No. 19 pick in 2017 by the San Jose Sharks, Norris is a freak athlete who can hold his own against anyone in the NCAA. The Senators’ new addition also has a deceptively quick release on his shot and is deadly accurate with both passing and shooting. Norris simply needs to embrace his role for Michigan, both carrying the puck and shooting more often. Some more experience, specifically as the team’s top scoring option, should go a long way for the promising center’s development.

F Shane Bowers, Boston Univ. (COL): Of course, who can forget the top center prospect that Ottawa recently traded away themselves. Bowers, part of the regrettable package that the Senators sent to the Colorado Avalanche for Matt Duchene, is set to be the go-to guy up front for BU this season. Bowers’ 32 points in 40 games last season ranked third last season for the Terriers, but with Jordan Greenway and Brady Tkachuk now gone, Bowers should be the top option and could be a dark horse Hobey Baker candidate on a talented BU team that should provide plenty of scoring chances. Bowers is quick-thinking and quick-skating offensive presence who is especially dangerous on the power play and works the puck down low perhaps better than anyone in the college ranks. A breakout campaign for Bowers should give the 2017 No. 28 pick an opportunity to compete for a spot among the Avs’ young forward corps next year.

D Adam Fox, Harvard (CAR): Fox, entering his junior year with the Harvard Crimson, has already seen his NHL rights traded. Fox had allegedly expressed a resistance to signing with the Calgary Flames, but so far no such sentiment has been associated with his new team, the Carolina Hurricanes. Fox is a mature, intelligent defender who has been a point-per-game player in college and especially excels as a power play quarterback. However, Fox is more than capable on the back end as well. Assuming he is yet again producing a Hobey Baker campaign for Harvard this year, Fox seems like a prime candidate for a late-season contract and brief tryout with the Hurricanes. Carolina’s depth on defense may block him from being a full time NHLer for a few years, but when Fox finally does land that job, he has the complete game to be a dangerous presence on any blue line.

The Top Prospect

D Ben Brinkman, Minnesota: If there is one thing that the 2018-19 NCAA class lacks, it is many standout draft-eligible prospects. Brinkman alone is a candidate for early selection next June, but the Minnesota native is a surefire first-rounder. The Gophers have rarely given a true freshman defenseman the role and minutes expected of Brinkman this season, but the teen blue liner is a special talent. A smooth skater who excels with the puck on his stick, it will be no surprise to see Brinkman frequently carry the puck up and start the rush for Minnesota and he should see ample power play time as well. Brinkman is no slouch in his own zone either, as he plays a competent game that allowed him to shut down high school competition. The adjustment to the college level will come with some lumps for the young defenseman, but Brinkman should emerge from this season as a bona fide NHL prospect.

Matt Duchene To Be Patient With Next Career Move

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Much has been made of the dwindling core of the Ottawa Senators. Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman are gone, Craig Anderson is nearing retirement, and the teams top three forwards are impending unrestricted free agents – that would be Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel. Given the current state and direction of the team, it has been estimated by many that all three could opt for the open market next summer. Stone took a direct approach to those rumors this week, stating that he loves Ottawa and wants to remain with the Senators.

As TSN’s Frank Servalli writes, Duchene is not so eager to decide one way or the other on his future. Earlier this off-season, Duchene said that an extension is something that he would definitely consider, but wanted to see how things go this year. Since then, it has gone from bad to worse in Ottawa with the departure of key players, as well as ownership and the front office committing to a rebuild. It seems very unlikely that the season will go well for the Senators, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will sour Duchene on sticking around. Duchene called last year a “disaster”, both personally and for the Senators and is looking for a fresh take this season. In his first full season with the team, Duchene’s individual performance and his fit in the locker room and in Ottawa’s long-term plan is instead what will likely dictate his next move. Duchene appreciates being close to home in Ottawa and could cherish a role as a leader with the Senators. Then again, polarizing owner Eugene Melnyk has been apprehensive about awarding expensive contracts and Duchene could decide after a strong season that he has a much better chance at getting market value and finding a winning situation with another team.

Sens fans would love to hear that Duchene is committed to the team, and sooner rather than later. After all, Ottawa gave up quite the package to acquire him from the Colorado Avalanche early last season, including what could turn out to be the top overall pick in next year’s entry draft. However, given their recent rash of bad luck, those same fans would rather Duchene be patient with his decision than be yet another player hoping to be dealt away. Unlike Stone, who – after going through the arbitration process – may not re-sign until after January 1st, Duchene is eligible to ink an extension already. Just don’t expect a decision any time soon, though.

Atlantic Notes: Krug, Zaitsev, Formenton

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Throughout the offseason, there have been lots of rumors surrounding the Boston Bruins, including many names that had been bandied about, including their top defenseman Torey Krug, whose name came up on several occasions while Boston was looking for a top-six winger. It wasn’t that they wanted to get rid of him, but logically, Krug would have made the most sense to move with the emergence of Charlie McAvoy. The crowded defense probably could survive without him and with his cap hit of $5.25MM AAV, the team could use the cap relief. Not to mention the fact that he’s posted 110 points over the course of the last two seasons.

In the end, the team never moved Krug or even came that close to moving him. Regardless, Krug laughed off the trade rumors, according to Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports.

“I don’t really see anybody doing my job here. I just have to make sure I show up every day and do the job the best that I can,” said Krug, who remained behind in Boston while rehabbing a fractured ankle as the bulk of the team trains in China. “You can’t really worry about too many things that people are saying. You go back to that famous line that it’s the nature of the business. So I’m still here and ready to do my job.”

  • Kristen Shilton of TSN writes that Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Nikita Zaitsev took it hard last season when he struggled after returning from injury last season. The 26-year-old was coming off an impressive rookie season in which he four goals and 36 points, but after breaking his foot, while blocking a shot on Dec. 15, his season took a turn for the worse. He came back after missing 17 games, but never was the same. “[You’re] not confident in yourself,” Zaitsev said on Saturday, reflecting on his return during Toronto’s training camp session at Gale Centre Arena. “Missing six weeks, it was [really hard]. It’s not an excuse, though. I started the season really good and I was confident in every minute what I did on the ice. After [getting hurt] I just couldn’t keep myself on the same level.” He hopes that now, finally healthy, he should be able to bounce back next season.
  • The Ottawa Senators might be heading for a full-blown rebuild, but that’s just fine for 19-year-old Alex Formenton, who has impressed the coaching staff after a couple days of training camp, according to Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen. The 2017 second-rounder made the team as an 18-year-old out of training camp last season, but was sent back after playing just two games before being sent back to his junior team. However, it’s his speed that has really impressed the staff this year as he has been already teamed with Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel in practice. “He makes a few guys look like cones out there,” Ottawa Senators coach Guy Boucher said of Formenton, who scored during Saturday’s intrasquad scrimmage. “It’s not the guys’ fault. It’s just that he’s so impressive. If you give this guy a bit of room and you didn’t gap up well, goodbye. A few of our older guys are finding that out.”

More On Erik Karlsson Trade: Pick Conditions, Extension, Colorado

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Perhaps the biggest move of the off-season was completed earlier today, when Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators to the San Jose Sharks. The return: two-way NHL forward Chris Tierney, rookie forward Rudolfs Balcers, collegiate center and 2017 first-round pick Josh Norris, young depth defenseman Dylan DeMelo, and four draft picks. While the Senators don’t know for sure how the likes of Norris and Balcers will pan out, the players acquired in this deal are somewhat identifiable assets with ascertainable ceilings. The picks carry far more potential; however they also each carry conditions. The earliest possible pick chronologically would be a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks owe the Buffalo Sabres their first round pick in the next NHL Draft as a condition for re-signing winger Evander Kane, but with the additional condition that they make the playoffs. Should they miss the playoffs – a catastrophic result for a team that now has meteoric expectations – the team could opt to send that pick to Ottawa and their 2020 first-rounder to Buffalo if they so choose. If not, and the Sharks make the playoffs as expected, the Senators will land that 2020 first-round pick.

Ottawa will still have an early pick from San Jose in June though, perhaps even earlier than expected. The condition on that pick is that it is the highest of the second-round picks owned by the Sharks: their own and the Florida Panthers’, which ironically was part of the return from the Sharks’ flip of former Ottawa forward Mike Hoffman earlier this year. Florida is expected to improve this season, but playing in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs means the Panthers face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and could easily end up with a draft slot in the first half of the second round. Whereas, the Sharks should by all accounts be a playoff team and more in the coming season.

Speaking of Hoffman, the Senators learned from that experience with Sharks GM Doug Wilson. As Sportsnet’s  Chris Johnston notes, Ottawa threw in what may as well be a “Mike Hoffman Clause”. After San Jose traded for Hoffman only to trade him hours later to one of the Senators’ division rivals, GM Pierre Dorion added a conditional future first-round pick if Karlsson is traded back to the Eastern Conference this season. The pick must be exchanged by 2022 at the latest.

Finally, the Sharks sent a 2021 second-round pick to the Senators that carries two conditions. The pick itself is conditional upon San Jose re-signing Karlsson, whose current contract expires at the end of the season. If the Sharks both appear in the Stanley Cup Final this year and extend Karlsson, that pick becomes a first-rounder. In summary, at worst the Senators will receive a second-rounder in 2019 and the Sharks’ first-rounder in 2020 and at best they receive three first-round picks between now and 2022 and potentially a first-round and early second-round pick next year.

  • One condition that is already looking good for the Senators is the one that hinges on Karlsson re-signing in San Jose. Although there has been no word from the star defenseman’s camp on his future or thoughts on a contract extension, Wilson already has the future in mind. Although the relatively underwhelming return for a player of Karlsson’s caliber reflects the risk of just one year remaining on his salary, Wilson made the deal with hopes of keeping him around for much longer. Wilson told the gathered media this afternoon that “It’s a long-term approach and we think Erik fits for now and for a long time.” While Karlsson has been clear that he wants to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and that would be best served on the open market, the Sharks have the salary cap composition moving forward to meet his contract demands. If the season goes according to plan and the Sharks win or come close to winning the Stanley Cup, with Karlsson playing a key role for what on paper looks like the best defense in the league, he could be tempted to skip free agency and re-sign in San Jose.
  • Although the Karlsson trade was between just two teams, there is no way to truly evaluate the reverberations of this trade without discussing the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators have changed the tone of their public relations approach following this trade, being clear that they have entered a rebuild. However, the fact remains that the Senators don’t own their first-round pick next season. That selection belongs to the Avs as part of the Matt Duchene trade. With Karlsson’s departure, the team that many pegged to be the worst in the league has now lost their best player and have an even better chance of finishing the season in 31st place. This would also give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery and the best odds of drafting projected franchise center Jack Hughes. However, that fate belongs to Colorado, who now stand a very high chance of seeing an already lopsided return for Duchene reach its maximum value. The 2018-19 Senators season will now likely matter more to Avalanche fans than it does to their own. To make matters worse, publicly committing to a rebuild could mean that Duchene, an impending unrestricted free agent, doesn’t even last the season on the Ottawa roster.

Poll: How Many Pending UFAs Will Stay With Ottawa?

at CDT | by 4 Comments

The Ottawa Senators made waves last night when they released a bizarre marketing video that seemed intended to settle down fans and sponsors upset with the direction of the team. Owner Eugene Melnyk and defenseman Mark Borowiecki discussed the roster, and how it may look completely different over the next 12 months. Melnyk even went so far to say there will be 10 “new”—rookies or players who played around ten games last season—on the roster this season and 15 or 16 in 2019-20. While that seems difficult to pull off for the 2018-19 season given the veteran group that is there right now, perhaps there is huge turnover coming in the next few weeks and months.

When looking at the Senators salary structure, there is certainly a few things that stick out. Only Bobby Ryan is signed for more than three seasons, and just Marian Gaborik and Zack Smith are even under contract that long. Almost the entire roster is set to hit unrestricted free agency in either 2019 or 2020, meaning there is a good chance they could have a much different looking group down the line.

That different look though is predicated on the idea that the Senators won’t re-sign any of their pending free agents. While Erik Karlsson seems like he’ll be gone soon and at the very least won’t be re-signing with Ottawa, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene have both remained open to the idea. Beyond them though are other key players like Ryan Dzingel and Chris Wideman, both scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2019.

So how many of those pending UFAs will stick around? Vote below for all the players who you believe will re-sign with the Ottawa Senators before the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Leave your comments on where you think they are heading below!

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

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