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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $74,746,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oliver Wahlstrom (three years, $925K)
D Sebastian Aho (one year, $925K)
D Noah Dobson (three years, $894K)
F Mathew Barzal (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:

Wahlstrom: $538K
Dobson: $538K
Barzal: $400K
Aho: $100K

Barzal will be an interesting case as the young center saw his numbers drop off after an amazing rookie campaign as the 22-year-old got more attention from top defenders without John Tavares to protect him. While his goals only dropped by four (18) last year, he saw his assist numbers slip from 63 to 44. However, many people feel that Barzal should take that next step and establish himself as top-line center. While the Islanders can only hope that this will happen, it could also prove to be costly for New York as Barzal will be wrapping up the final year of his entry-level contract and could be in line for a major deal as the youngster is likely keeping a close eye on all the unsigned restricted free-agents on the market currently.

The Islanders have quite a bit of talent in the system and several of their top picks from 2018 could be ready to contribute this season. Wahlstrom, the 11th-overall pick, played well in his one season at Boston College, but looked even more impressive in a short showcase with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL. He played five regular season games, scoring two goals, but added another two goals and four points in five playoff games. Dobson, the team’s 12th-overall pick last season, could be ready to take a key spot in the Islanders defense.

While the defense could add Dobson this season, another addition could be Toews who looks to be ready for an increased role with the Islanders. The 25-year-old put up 18 points in 48 games last season and looks ready to contribute.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($2MM, RFA)
F Derick Brassard ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Tom Kuhnhackl ($850K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($700K, RFA)

While Robin Lehner received all the attention for his stellar play in goal, Islanders’ fans were just as pleased with the play of Greiss, who just a couple of years ago was considered to have an untradeable contract. However, no one is complaining after Greiss put up impressive numbers last year. The 33-year-old had a .927 save percentage and a 2.28 GAA in 43 appearances and should be a key piece for New York in his final year, although with several prospects getting closer to being NHL ready, this is likely to be his last year with the Islanders.

The 24-year-old Pulock continued to improve his game, especially offensively. He finished the season with nine goals and 37 assists, which is impressive considering the team’s offense dropped off quite a bit since the 2017-18 season as the defenseman continues to work on his defensive game. He could be prime for another big contract if he can take his game to another level.

Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello is a big believer in a veteran bottom-six and has done well with both Martin and Kuhnhackl as well as Brassard, who the team signed recently and could always get a new contract if they continue to perform well.

Two Years Remaining

F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA)
F Tanner Fritz ($700K, UFA)

The 28-year-old Cizikas had a breakout season last year. Not only did he finally break the double-digit barrier, he actually reached 20 goals. The hope is that Cizikas can repeat that success as he is expected to continue playing on the team’s impressive fourth line. The team also has hopes that Dal Colle can win a regular spot. The 23-year old got a 27 game trial, scoring three goals and seven points last season.

The defensive minded Pelech has been a solid player for the Islanders and is quite a bargain at $1.6MM. Perhaps the top left-handed defenseman, he has received solid minutes and should continue to get good minutes this season. The team

Three Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)

At age 35, the team will be paying for Boychuk’s late years and there does seem to be a decline in his play as both his ATOI and his points dropped. On the positive, his 74 games played is the most he’s played since he was with the Bruins back in 2013-14. However, he saw his minutes drop by almost two per game and picked up just 19 points last season. That could mean a reduced role for the veteran this season as he could slide outside the top four and move into a bottom-pairing role. The 28-year-old Leddy, however, continues to play well as he broke the 20-minute mark for the fifth-straight season. His offense, however, took a hit as he only tallied 26 points after three straight 40-point seasons, but with a defense-first philosophy, that might not be surprising. The team also has high hopes that Hickey, who missed quite a bit of time due to an upper-body injury, will stay healthy this season. The two-way blueliner will be a key addition for the team, but he will have to earn his playing time, especially if Dobson makes the roster out of training camp.

With Cizikas and Martin, Clutterbuck gives the Islanders a physical and offensive fourth-line that is one of the best in the league and the 31-year-old has been putting up 200-plus hits 10 of the last 11 years and is expected to continue that success. Komarov also has put up big hits (203), giving the team quite a bit of physicality for the next few years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Anders Lee ($7MM through 2025-26)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM through 2023-24)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM through 2022-23)
F Josh Bailey ($5MM through 2023-24)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM through 2022-23)

Lamoriello was busy this offseason, signing four of these long-term deals this summer. The team was hoping to steal Artemi Panarin from the New York Rangers at the last minute, but when that fell through, the team immediately locked up their captain to a seven-year deal. Lee posted solid numbers, scoring 28 goals and 51 points, while showing off a plus-20 rating on the ice. Nelson, who many believed was the most likely to bolt the Islanders, surprised many by signing a six-year deal at $6MM after career-high 53 points and netted four goals in eight playoff games last year. Eberle was another key signing as the team committed five years and $5.5MM per season to him despite a down year where he had just 37 points, one of the lowest numbers of his career. However, a strong playoff performance might have been enough to prove his worth after he tallied four goals and nine points in eight playoff games.

The team made a shocking move this offseason when they opted not to keep the fan-favorite Lehner and instead signed Russian goaltender Semyon Varlamov away from Colorado. One reason for that was because the team still hopes to convince top Russian goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin to come to the U.S., which might be easier with Lehner out of the way and a veteran countryman in place to ease him into the NHL. However, Varlamov has the potential to be quite successful with the Islanders’ defensive system. He has been quite successful over the years, but has had to deal with many injuries as well.

Bailey may be one of the better deals the teams has. The pass-first winger put up another solid season, putting up 16 goals and 56 points and added four goals in the playoffs and is a key player on the team’s top-six. On the other hand, Ladd may have the contract that looks the worst on the team. The 33-year-old veteran continues to deal with injury issues. This time, the veteran only appeared in 26 games, putting up just three goals for the team. He put up a 23-goal season back in the 2016-17 season, but the team rewarded him with a seven-year, $38.5MM deal, which so far looks like a disaster after he has scored just 15 goals in two seasons and isn’t likely to get the minutes he needs to make that deal look decent.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Anthony Beauvillier

This will be a key year for Beauvillier once he signs. A 2015 first-round pick, the 22-year-old winger struggled in a top-six role last year, putting up 18 goals and 10 assists and he must show that he can take his game to another level. He likely will command some kind of bridge deal to prove his value to the franchise as he hasn’t necessarily shown enough to warrant a long-term deal. However, if he can’t show that he belongs on the top-six, he could find himself falling to the third line soon.

Best Value: Bailey
Worst Value: Ladd

Looking Ahead

The Islanders put all their eggs in one basket this summer. Lamoriello had all the cap space he needed to shape the franchise any way he wanted, but in the end, he brought back almost all of his key unrestricted free agents and has committed to keep his team. The team broke all expectations last season as few expected the team to even make the playoffs, let alone sweep their first-round opponent. Regardless, the belief that under head coach Barry Trotz, the team will continue to get better and battle for a Stanley Cup for the next few years. The team has committed to its core and now have to hope that their farm system can continue to develop their young players and add to the Islanders team for the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agency Notes: Edler, Hayes, Pavelski, Krug

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When Alex Edler asked Vancouver not to move him at the NHL Trade Deadline, many assumed it was precursor to an extension between the long-time Canuck and his team. Yet, as the weeks have passed and no resolution has emerged, that expectation grew less and less certain. Now, after a month or so of reports that term and expansion protection were coming between the two sides, it seems the deal is dead and Edler will hit the open market. Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that it does not sound like the Canucks and Edler will get a deal done by July 1st. This does not entirely rule out a return to Vancouver, but it will be substantially harder to convince him to come back after he’s tested the waters and likely found teams willing to give him the desired term and No-Movement Clause. This especially rings true today, as Erik Karlsson’s extension leaves a thin defense market even weaker and D-needy teams will have little choice but to meet the demands of Edler and fellow top free agents like Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers. It would not be surprise to now see Vancouver make a hard push for one of those two as well, as they seek an upgrade on the blue line but were not willing to give the 33-year-old Edler a long-term deal or risk losing young players to protect an aging veteran in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.

  • It’s been a roller coaster of reports on Kevin Hayes since the moment his negotiating rights were acquired by the Philadelphia Flyers from the Winnipeg Jets. The Flyers obviously became the favorite to sign the free agent center given their early access, but there have since been reports followed by other conflicting reports about how talks have been going between the two sides. Finally, trusted Flyers source Frank Seravalli of TSN has chimed in and he has only good news for Philly fans. Seravalli reports that the two sides have made good progress and that talks are trending toward a contract. He stops short of guaranteeing a deal gets done, but believes that it will. This would remove yet another major name from the free agent market, following Karlsson, Jeff Skinner, and Jordan Eberle. And like those three, reports of a deal being close have so far been proven true this off-season.
  • The sheer magnitude of Karlsson’s new contract with the Sharks has surprised many and has reinforced the narrative that San Jose will have to lose other key free agents to re-sign the talented defenseman. While he wouldn’t speak specifically about talks with those players, GM Doug Wilson did warn not to make assumptions when asked about Joe Pavelski, per The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz. Wilson says that nothing has been ruled out, making a Pavelski return a possibility. He also spoke to the importance of getting Karlsson under contract “well before July 1st”, specifically so that the team can plan around their new salary cap paradigm. It still remains a long-shot barring trades to remove salary from the current roster, but until Pavelski, a career Shark, puts pen to paper elsewhere, he remains a possibility for San Jose.
  • Boston defenseman Torey Krug will not be a free agent until next summer, but he has already proven that he is worth a significant raise in his next contract. The Bruins’ power play magician is fifth among all NHL defensemen in regular season scoring over the past three years and second only to Erik Karlsson in playoff scoring. Karlsson’s new extension, along with the contracts of players like John Carlson and Victor Hedman, raise the bar for what Krug might be looking for in his next deal. Even though he has some struggles defensively, it is fair to assume that his current $5.25MM cap hit will not cut it. This leaves the Bruins in a difficult spot, as they must first re-sign elite young defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo this summer. Those moves will leave Boston with little cap space this off-season and not much more the following year when Krug needs a new contract. Yet, speaking with the media today, GM Don Sweeney made it clear that his intent is not to trade the mobile defender, nor to let him leave after next season:

If somebody blew us away (with a trade offer for Krug), every player has to be looked at in that way. When you’re an organization, you just have to, you’re doing a disservice if you don’t. But it would take a pretty unique opportunity for us to part with Torey. We think he’s a big part of the fabric of our group. He’s kind of that next wave of leadership that we talk about.

New York Islanders Agree To Terms With Jordan Eberle

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The New York Islanders have locked up another one of their pending free agent forwards, this time agreeing to terms with Jordan Eberle on a five-year contract. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports the deal comes with an average annual value of $5.5MM. CapFriendly provides the full breakdown:

  • 2019-20: $5.25MM salary + $2.0MM signing bonus + full NTC
  • 2020-21: $4.75MM salary + full NTC
  • 2021-22: $7.0MM salary + 16-team NTC
  • 2022-23: $4.75MM salary + 16-team NTC
  • 2023-24: $ 3.75MM salary + 16-team NTC

Eberle, 29, has played two seasons with the Islanders since being traded by the Edmonton Oilers in the summer of 2017 . He was scheduled to be one of the top options in free agency this season even with his relatively down year, but will now be relied upon as a core piece of the Islanders moving forward. His $5.5MM cap hit is actually a slight drop from the six-year $36MM deal he had been playing under previously, but still puts him right behind Brock Nelson as the second highest-paid forward on the Islanders for the time being.

That kind of commitment comes even after Eberle struggled at times this season. With new head coach Barry Trotz installing a more rigid, defensive structure, Eberle’s offensive production dropped to just 19 goals and 37 points in 78 games. Some were questioning whether he could be the same impact forward he had shown in the past, but an impressive playoff run with nine points in eight games seems to have convinced the team he can. It’s not like he doesn’t have a solid resume, as Eberle had recorded at least 20 goals in each of the previous five seasons and reached a career high of 34 in 2011-12 with Edmonton. Still remembered for his World Junior heroics, the now-veteran forward has a knack for scoring important goals at opportune times.

This contract is interesting however, given the Islanders still have not announced an extension for captain Anders Lee. GM Lou Lamoriello has now handed out new expensive deals for Eberle and Nelson, the two pending free agent forwards who seemed more likely than Lee to hit the open market. The team still has more than enough cap space to make a deal with Lee—and goaltender Robin Lehner—work, but if they want to be aggressive on any of the other names in free agency they’ll have to be careful how much they commit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Metropolitan Division: Kessel, Martin, Sorokin, Lee

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Just a few days ago, it was leaked that the Pittsburgh Penguins were closing in on a deal to send veteran forward Phil Kessel to Minnesota in a four-player trade. However, that trade hasn’t happened yet, suggesting that Kessel, who has can choose eight teams that he cannot reject a trade to, isn’t interested in playing for the Wild.

This complication could be a major issue for Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford, according to The Athletic’s Rob Rossi (subscription required), whose goal was to move Kessel and free up some cap room as early as possible, so the team could begin reshaping its roster. Once that deal was done, Rutherford could concentrate on his checklist that includes finalizing a new contract for goaltender Matt Murray, smoothing things over with Evgeni Malkin, working towards adding more youth throughout its franchise and possibly adding more picks in the early portion of the upcoming draft.

Yet, with Kessel flashing an unwillingness to be cooperative in where he gets traded, Rutherford’s job has gotten quite a bit harder. Rossi points out that Kessel’s value takes a big hit if he has little control on where Kessel goes, which could limit the team’s ability to cut salary this offseason. On top of that, now that everyone knows that Rutherford wants to move Kessel out, it will even be harder to get a good trade in the future.

  • Sticking with the Penguins, TribLive’s Jonathan Bombulie reports that after not getting the head coaching position with the Ottawa Senators or Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins assistant coach Jacques Martin will return for a fifth season with the Penguins. That’s good news for Pittsburgh, as he was critical in running the team’s defense and penalty kill. Martin lost out on the Ottawa job to Toronto assistant coach D.J. Smith, while Buffalo hired Ralph Krueger.
  • The Athletic’s Arthur Staple (subscription required) writes that it doesn’t look like the New York Islanders will be signing goaltending prospect Ilya Sorokin out of the KHL this season. The team had hoped that Sorokin would buy out his final season of his KHL contract after he led his team to the Gagarin Cup Championships this year and come over to New York a year early. However, Staple writes that the 23-year-old netminder, who posted a 1.16 GAA and a .940 save percentage in the regular season for CSKA Moscow and was equally good in the playoffs, has chosen to finish out his contract, so the earliest New York would see him was the 2020-21 season.
  • The New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis writes that now the New York Islanders have locked up center Brock Nelson to a six-year, $36MM deal, the team must now focus their attention on captain Anders Lee, who is rumored to be seeking a seven-year deal at $7MM per season. That may be too much for general manager Lou Lamoriello, but at the same time would leave a huge hole in their lineup if they let him walk, leaving Lamoriello with the task of replacing him with either Jordan Eberle or another underwhelming option.

 

Islanders Re-Sign Brock Nelson To Six-Year Extension

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The New York Islanders had four key players approaching unrestricted free agency this off-season, but they have cut that number down to three. The Islanders have announced that they have signed center Brock Nelson to a long-term contract extension. The new deal is six years at $6MM per season for Nelson, who becomes both the highest-paid and longest-signed player on New York’s roster (for now). The full deal breaks down as follows:

  • 2019-20: $8.0MM + full no-trade
  • 2020-21: $5.2MM + full no-trade
  • 2021-22: $8.0MM + partial no-trade
  • 2022-23: $5.2MM + partial no-trade
  • 2023-24: $5.6MM + partial no-trade
  • 2024-25: $4.0MM + partial no-trade

Nelson, 27, bet on himself last summer by signing a one-year, $4.25MM extension with the Islanders in hopes that a breakout season would earn him the long-term, high-paying deal he was seeking. That gamble worked out perfectly, as Nelson enjoyed the best season of his career and had been set to hit the market as likely the third-best center and a top-15 or so free agent. The Islanders knew they had to pay, perhaps even slightly over market value, to keep Nelson and did just that. The six-year term is less of a concern, as Nelson will be just 33 when the contract expires.

New head coach Barry Trotz took an immediate liking to Nelson this season, giving him more than three minutes of extra ice time per night compared to last year, as well as an increased role on special teams. Nelson responded with a career-high 53 points this season and finished third on the Islanders in scoring. He was also New York’s best five-on-five forward, leading the team in even strength goals and points. The team clearly trusts Nelson to continue playing a well-rounded game and growing his offensive ability.

As the first major UFA forward to sign a long-term extension this off-season, Nelson sets the bar for not only his fellow Islanders teammates but for the market as a whole. After signing Nelson, the Islanders still have over $29.2MM in cap space per CapFriendly. The team still hopes to sign forwards Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle, as well as goaltender Robin Lehner. Although Nelson outscored Lee and Eberle this season, the unsigned duo are around the same age as Nelson but have more experience, more scoring history, and simply more talent. The 6×6 deal agreed to by Nelson is unlikely to do the trick for either Lee or Eberle, meaning signing both would chew up more than $12MM of the Islanders’ remaining cap space. It’s still very possible for them to sign all of their key free agents, but not as easy now that Nelson’s deal is in place. Elsewhere on the market, Nelson’s $6MM AAV will likely raise the price tag for the likes of Kevin Hayes, Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, and Brett Connolly among others, as each are close in age and platform production to Nelson, albeit Hayes is the only center in the group. This is just the first of what are likely to be several big-name extensions prior to July 1st, but Nelson’s deal will certainly have ramifications in the current marketplace.

Pacific Notes: Boeser, Brodie, Schmaltz

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While the names of Mitch Marner, Sebastian Aho, Brayden Point and William Karlsson are popular names brought up amongst the multitude of upcoming restricted free agents this summer, one name that often gets missed is Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser. The 22-year-old has been a key figure with the Canucks the past two years as he’s combined for 51 goals and 111 points in the last two seasons, making him quite an interesting figure, considering Vancouver needs to lock him up.

The Athletic’s Harman Dayal (subscription required) analyzes what it might take for the Canucks to sign Boeser this summer. While the Canucks have the cap space to be generous to their young forward, the scribe writes they need to be cautious as both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes will be watching as they will also be looking for new record-breaking deals in the next two years, but when noting that it took Boeser a couple of years to break into the league before his entry-level deal kicked in, the best comparisons are Filip Forsberg and Jordan Eberle. With those numbers in mind, the scribe says that a rough estimate puts Boeser at approximately $7.25MM with Boeser likely asking for $8MM, while the Canucks hoping to keep it as close to $7MM as possible.

However, with no eligibility for arbitration or a potential offer sheet to use as leverage, Boeser isn’t exactly in the prime situation to force the Canucks to pay $8MM unless he wants to hold out.

  • While there has been talk that the Calgary Flames might be ready to move on from defenseman T.J. Brodie with their influx of talented blueliners ready to take bigger roles in the near future, The Athletic’s Kent Wilson (subscription required) does an in-depth look at Mark Giordano as well as his impact on Brodie. The scribe notes that Brodie, who looked to be on the decline a year ago, had an improved year when paired with Giordano, but when he wasn’t playing with the star defenseman, Brodie’s numbers were extremely mediocre, even more suggesting that Calgary might be best served in moving Brodie now before his value slips even more. The 28-year-old will be in a contract-year at $4.65MM, which might make him even more valuable to other NHL teams.
  • Craig Morgan of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Arizona Coyotes forward Nick Schmaltz, who the team acquired last November but only appeared in 17 games before going down with a season-ending meniscus injury, is changing his diet in hopes of being in the best shape of his career. With a history of eating burgers and cheese curds, the team has asked him to start eating healthier this summer. “I have never really cooked in my life,” he said. “It was always easier to go out or order something, but learning how to cook healthy food is a big step, and you can really focus on that in the summer.”

Avalanche To Be “Aggressive” With Top Free Agents

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Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is a fan of the upcoming free agent class. Speaking at the team’s final media availability of the season, Sakic said of the impending market that “It’s a pretty good class this year…We see positions of need, of what we’re looking to do. There’s a few guys that we’re gonna want to talk to if they become available. We’ll be more aggressive this year.” The Avalanche went out and added defenseman Ian Cole and forward Matt Calvert last summer, who are solid complementary players, but aren’t the major game-changers that can alter a franchise. After a surprising postseason run, Colorado now knows that their championship window is open and those game-changers appear to be exactly what Sakic has his sights set on this off-season to support his team’s pursuit of the Stanley Cup. And he’s also not willing just add anyone if he misses out on his top targets, adding “if it doesn’t work out with the players that we want to talk to we’re not just gonna go spend on anybody. We want the right players and the right fit.”

Fortunately for Sakic and the Avs, the team’s salary cap structure allows the GM to back up his comments as well. With Semyon Varlamov, Patrik Nemeth, and Derick Brassard – three players who contributed little to nothing this postseason – coming off the books, Colorado will shed more than $11MM. The team could opt to re-sign the likes of Colin Wilson, Gabriel Bourque, and Pavel Francouz, but none of that trio would likely take up much cap space. Right now, the team has an estimate of nearly $32MM in cap space entering the off-season. Some of that will need to be reserved for re-upping restricted free agents Alexander Kerfoot, J.T. Compher, Nikita Zadorov, and most of all Mikko Rantanen. However, it should still leave the Avs with at least double-digit cap space to explore the market with.

So which top free agents could the Avalanche pursue? You can cross off the tandem of Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky for a number of reasons and it’s hard to imagine Matt Duchene returning to Denver. However, the team’s need for secondary scoring could lead Sakic to make pitches for many of the other elite forwards. Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, and Anders Lee may not hit the market, but expect the Avs to be in the mix if they do. More ascertainable targets could be Ryan Dzingel, Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Marcus Johansson, and Mats Zuccarello, any of whom would provide an immediate boost to the team’s scoring depth. Adding two of those forwards would give the team a totally different look up front next season. Colorado may also have their eye on an established backup for Philipp Grubauer and could chase the likes of Mike Smith or Cam Talbot, among others. 

Given the talent already on the Colorado roster, an aggressive off-season plan should be an interesting topic to follow along with this summer. Sakic and company have seen what their team can do as an 8-seed in the playoffs and surely are imagining what might happen if they are instead a top seed. A division title and more is certainly in the realm of possibility next season if the Avalanche succeed in adding a couple of the aforementioned players.

Poll: How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign Before July 1st?

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The season is over for all but four NHL teams, meaning free agents from the other 27 clubs are already focused on July 1st and the start of free agency. How many of those top free agents are still considering staying where they are versus testing the market? How many teams have the means and interest to re-sign them?

In January, PHR published our Mid-Season UFA Power Rankings: 1-10, 11-20, and honorable mentions. Mark Stone, Eric Staal, Jakob Silfverberg and Jimmy Howard – four of our top 25 –  have already signed extensions. However, the other top names and their current squads have exactly seven weeks to decide whether or not they will follow suit.

The Columbus Blue Jackets went all in at the trade deadline and it paid off with the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, a shocking sweep of the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. Yet, the acquisitions of Ottawa Senators standouts Matt Duchene (No. 5) and Ryan Dzingel (No. 16) was not enough to get the team through round two, nevertheless to a Stanley Cup title. Now, the team faces the possibility that their new additions could walk in free agency alongside stars Artemi Panarin (No. 2) and Sergei Bobrovsky (No. 6), leaving them with major holes to fill. The latter duo have long been expected to test the market, perhaps even as a package deal. Additionally, the conditional 2020 first-round pick tied to re-signing Duchene would seemingly make it less likely that Columbus opts to extend him, especially given their lack of picks in the upcoming draft. None of those three have officially ruled out a return to the Blue Jackets, but it doesn’t look good. On the other hand, Dzingel, an Ohio State University alum, looks like he could be a more natural long-term fit, but it hasn’t prevented rumors that other teams are very interested in signing him.

Another free agent-heavy team that blew through round one of the playoffs only to be knocked off in round two are the New York Islanders. After losing John Tavares last summer, going through the same with top forward Anders Lee (No. 9) would be devastating for the Islanders franchise. Yet, the captain still remains unsigned. It’s fair to assume they will eventually figure it out, but that line of thinking if awfully reminiscent of last year. New York is reportedly pushing hard to retain enter Brock Nelson (No. 11) and winger Jordan Eberle (No. 15) as well, but they could be more inclined to test the market. There’s also the question of resurgent goalie Robin Lehner (No. 23). Will the Islanders lock up the young keeper who was so solid this season? Or will they refuse to pay market value for a player that has benefited from their system while splitting time with Thomas Greiss?

Another team of interest are the San Jose Sharks, who remain alive in the Western Conference Final. Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 1) and respected veteran forward Joe Pavelski (No. 7) are both heading for free agency and the Sharks may be hard-pressed to sign both. There’s also deadline addition Gustav Nyquist (No. 14) to consider re-signing, as he has had a strong postseason with the Sharks. The Carolina Hurricanes are also one of four teams still playing and are definitely happy they held on to forward Micheal Ferland (No. 18). Ferland is reportedly expected to test the market, but after a deep postseason run he may be more open to extending his stay with the Hurricanes.

It was a difficult end to the year for the Winnipeg Jets, who were one-and-done this year, falling to the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Between rental center Kevin Hayes (No. 8) and big defenseman Tyler Myers (No. 10), the Jets have a pair of coveted free agents on the roster who they would surely like to keep, but that is the least of their worries as they face a daunting impending cap crunch. It could make bringing back even one of the two nearly impossible. The same goes for defenseman Jake Gardiner (No. 12) and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs will have a hard enough time keeping their roster together and re-signing their current restricted free agent, nevertheless managing to re-sign Gardiner.

Generally, playoff rentals proceed to hit the free agent market rather than re-up with their new teams. In addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Hayes, and Nyquist, Nashville’s Wayne Simmonds (No. 13), Dallas’ Mats Zuccarello (No. 21), and Colorado’s Derick Brassard (No. 24) could very well be headed to yet another destination. Simmonds and Brassard were disappointments in their short stays, but Zuccarello proved to be a nice fit with the Stars. However, the team would lose a first-round pick rather than a second-round pick to the New York Rangers if they were to re-sign the veteran forward. That may not be enough to stop them from extending him, though.

If there was any doubt that the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t re-sign Jeff Skinner (No. 4), one would think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. However, he remains suspiciously unsigned and would be a massive addition to the free agent market if he does make it to July. Skinner has been a great match with Jack Eichel and certainly looks like a long-term fit in Buffalo, but the team’s second-half struggles could have Skinner re-thinking a long-term stay.

Vancouver’s Alexander Edler (No. 22) stated that his preference was not to be dealt at this year’s trade deadline and to instead re-sign with the Canucks. The two sides have been working toward an extension, but until pen meets paper he is still an impending free agent that will attract considerable attention. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov (No. 17) has expressed an interest in remaining with the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s unclear if the feeling is mutual. Varlamov would have to take a major pay cut to stay on as backup and may rather test a goalie market that has already lost Howard and could lose Lehner before free agency opens.

Compared to recent years, this impending free agent class does look to have fewer locks for extensions among top players. Any of these names could hit the market, although odds are they won’t all choose to do so. Regardless, this could be a healthy market come July 1st. Just how deep could it be? That’s for you to guess. How many of these top free agents will sign extensions?

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Islanders Notes: Free Agency, Lehner, Offense, Lambert

at CDT | by 1 Comment

After a tough sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes in the second round, right after they impressed everyone by sweeping the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round, there remain many questions surrounding the New York Islanders and in what direction general manager Lou Lamoriello will go this off-season. They have multiple key free agent forwards that could hit the open market in July, including forwards Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee and Brock Nelson.

Newsday’s Andrew Gross makes his predictions on who is staying or going and is quick to point out that it’s likely that Lamoriello may only keep one of their three top-six free agent forwards. The question is whether he can get Lee to agree to take a little less to remain with the team. Gross believes that Lee would ask for six years at $6MM per, which Lamoriello might agree to, but both Eberle and Nelson could ask for similar amounts and if one of them opts to take less, that may be who ends up staying.

The scribe also adds that some of their other free agents could get re-signed, especially Valtteri Filppula and Tanner Fritz to smaller, shorter-term deals.

  • With tons of cap space and multiple key free agents of their own, the team must decide whether they intend to re-sign some of those players as well as whether they intend to dip into free agency and go after some bigger fish. What the team needs to do is find a way to sign Robin Lehner to cement their goaltending situation, according to Emily Kaplan and Chris Peters of ESPN (subscription required). Lehner, who has become a fan favorite in New York after an incredible season, is needed in New York with Thomas Greiss down to his last year on his contract. Lehner and Greiss combined to win the Jennings Trophy, while Lehner is also a finalist for the Vezina Trophy after putting up 25 wins, a 2.13 GAA, and a .930 save percentage during the regular season. Despite many who feel that Lehner failed in the playoffs, his numbers were still even better in the playoffs, posting a 2.00 GAA and a .936 save percentage. He was a bargain at $1.5MM, but will need a big raise this summer if the Islanders want to keep him.
  • Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post writes that what Lamoriello needs to find this summer is more high-impact scorers who can help with head coach Barry Trotz’s grinding defense. Like in Washington, Trotz’ defensive system relies on high-end forwards who can get opportunistic goals, which the team struggled to do in the second round of the playoffs. Trotz, however, believes there is talent in their system, which might be ready to supplement the team. “We knew that we were a little bit lean in some of the high-skill positions, but we have some good kids coming,” Trotz said.
  • With the Islanders eliminated, that could open up some coaching opportunity for associate coach Lane Lambert, according to The Athletic’s Scott Burnside (subscription required). The 54-year-old Lambert has been a long-time assistant to Trotz and might be one of the top assistant coaches ready to make the transition to the head coaching position. He has been key to game planning and practices and has been a critical part of the team’s penalty kill unit.

Arizona Coyotes To Target Scoring This Off-Season

at CDT | by 10 Comments

The Arizona Coyotes missed out on the postseason this year by a mere four points. While a success overall for the rebuilding club, the Coyotes struggled greatly on offense. The team’s 209 goals for were tied for third-worst in the NHL and their 16.3% power play success rate was sixth-worst. Behind stellar goaltending from Darcy Kuemper and strong team defense, the team largely got the job done, but they need to improve their scoring if they want to take the next step.

It’s thus no surprise that both Richard Morin of Arizona Republic and Craig Morgan of The Athletic write that Arizona will be looking to add a prominent scoring forward this summer. GM John Chayka would seem to agree:

I think to understand what we need to do to improve is pretty simple: We need to score more goals. I think anytime someone’s going through and trying to diagnose what you need to do to take that next step, that’s not the complicated part or complex part. I think what we need to understand and work through is, how do we score more goals? How do we create more offense, while maintaining that fundamental foundation of being a good stingy, defensive team.

Among the top options – albeit unlikely – for the Coyotes on the free agent market would be Columbus Blue Jackets stars Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, Buffalo Sabres’ standout Jeff Skinner, or any of the New York Islanders’ trio of Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Brock Nelson. All of these forwards are prime talents, but may not be available to Arizona. Both Skinner and Lee are expected to re-sign with their current teams, as could Eberle or Nelson, while Panarin and Duchene are likely outside the Coyotes’ price range. More accessible free agent scorers could include Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, Wayne Simmonds, or Brett Connolly, one or two of which would be a major boost to Arizona’s offense.

Morgan also adds that several cap-strapped teams could be forced to move talented forwards, leaving the Coyotes in places to scoop up valuable players at a discount. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, and Tampa Bay Lightning are all in a tough spot, leaving the likes of Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault, Ondrej Palat, J.T. Miller, or Alex Killorn possibly up for grabs.

Either by signing or trade, the Coyotes are likely to add a prominent forward or two and are expected to target wingers rather than centers. Arizona will be a team to watch this off-season as they target several of the aforementioned top names.

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