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Poll: Who Will Win The Calder Trophy In 2018-19?

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The Athletic’s NHL Draft and prospects guru Scott Wheeler has released the first definitive list of candidates for the Calder Trophy in 2018-19, and the order may surprise some people. Admittedly, the list is in the context of fantasy hockey, but Wheeler’s rankings are true to how he thinks Calder voting will unfold if each rookie hits their stat projections. As such, it’s not this year’s first overall pick, Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, at the top of the list, but presumptive top-six center for the Vancouver Canucks, Elias Pettersson. Pettersson will be put in a much better position to rack up points than will Dahlin, the next-best candidate, as potentially one of the three best scoring forwards for the Canucks and traditionally productive forwards have a better shot at the Calder than (relatively) equally productive defensemen.

Coming in at number three is Boston Bruins forward Ryan Donato, who led both the NCAA and Olympics in goals last season and will look to win a top-six role for Boston and continue to find the back of the net at an alarming rate. Playing alongside either Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk is an easy way for Donato to quickly become an elite scorer at the NHL level. The fourth-ranked candidate is second overall pick Andrei Svechnikov of the Carolina Hurricanes, who – like Pettersson – will be given an immense amount of responsibility right away as a top-six winger who is arguably already one of the three most skilled forwards on the team. However, Svechnikov is one of three Hurricanes rookies on Wheeler’s list, which could take away from his case. Rounding out the top five is Dahlin’s fellow rookie in Buffalo, center Casey Mittelstadt, who scored at nearly a point-per-game pace in the college ranks and in a brief stint with the Sabres to end the year. Mittelstadt should face favorable match-ups this season with the lines anchored by Jack Eichel and Patrik Berglund drawing considerable attention from the opposition.

Wheeler’s top twenty Calder Trophy candidates are as follows:

  1. C Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
  2. D Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
  3. RW Ryan Donato, Boston Bruins
  4. RW Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
  5. C Casey Mittelstadt, Buffalo Sabres
  6. RW Filip Zadina, Detroit Red Wings
  7. C Dylan Strome, Arizona Coyotes
  8. C Henrik Borgstrom, Florida Panthers
  9. C Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes
  10. D Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars
  11. RW Dylan Sikura, Chicago Blackhawks
  12. RW Eeli Tolvanen, Nashville Predators
  13. C Filip Chytil, New York Rangers
  14. LW Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators
  15. LW Valentin Zykov, Carolina Hurricanes
  16. RW Kailer Yamamoto, Edmonton Oilers
  17. C Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
  18. LW Kristian Vesalainen, Winnipeg Jets
  19. C Sam Steel, Anaheim Ducks
  20. RW Vitaly Abramov, Columbus Blue Jackets

Honorable Mentions: C Vladislav Kamenev, Colorado Avalanche; LW Jordan Greenway, Minnesota Wild; C Robert Thomas, St. Louis Blues; LW Andreas Johnsson, Toronto Maple Leafs; C Michael Rasmussen, Detroit Red Wings; C Lias Andersson, New York Rangers; D Sami Niku, Winnipeg Jets; D Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers; RW Daniel Sprong, Pittsburgh Penguins

What do you think? Who will be the NHL’s Rookie of the Year and take home the Calder Trophy at the end of the season? The favorite? The first overall pick? Another top candidate? Or a name not even mentioned here?

Atlantic Notes: Vasilevskiy, Eichel, Backes, Evans

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Despite an impressive season in the net, Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy learned one valuable lesson by the end of the year: Rest is a good thing. The 24-year-old netminder put up amazing numbers, including playing in a career-high 65 games and posting a .920 save percentage (also a career-high) which was good enough to earn him third place in the Vezina Trophy voting. Regardless, Vasilevskiy wore down in the second half, saying he was both physically and mentally fatigued by the end of the season.

Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) writes the response was to take two months off from hockey this summer. Vasilevskiy had never played more than 50 games in a season before last year and finished fourth in games played behind Cam Talbot, Frederik Andersen and Sergei Bobrovsky. Tampa Bay goaltending coach Frantz Jean said the ideal number should be between 55 to 65 games. However, Vasilevskiy has changed many of his routines within the last six months in order to rest his body more and more, including doing post-game workouts immediately after games, so he can rest his body completely on off days.

“I think it was hard for him in the past to step back, but I think last year once we got to that second half of the season, I think he was actually open to taking a little more time off,” Jean said. “When we’re going in practice, we go hard. We work hard. I think he understood he needed that rest time, to allow his body and mind to kind of refresh.”

  • Count Jack Eichel as a player that is really looking forward to training camp this season after a successful offseason for the Buffalo Sabres, according to NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin. The 21-year-old superstar who saw his team struggle with constant losing the last couple of years sees an immediate change in the clubhouse. The Sabres drafted Rasmus Dahlin with the first-overall pick this year, traded for Jeff Skinner, Conor Sheary and signed goaltender Carter Hutton as well as add quite a bit of veteran depth to the team. “There’s a lot of new faces in there,” Eichel said. “So I think a lot of the people with a sour taste in their mouths from the last few years have either gotten over it or aren’t in the locker room anymore. I think it’s a good opportunity for us to just prove ourselves to the League and prove ourselves to ourselves.”
  • After an injury plagued year for the Boston Bruins, forward David Backes re-dedicated himself this offseason, according to Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont. The 34-year-old winger has seen his game decline over the past three years and found himself putting up just 14 goals and 33 points in 57 games. However, he lost 10 pounds to his 6-foot-3 frame and now stands a much leaner 210 pounds, which he hopes can help him increase his speed and help him avoid injuries this season. Backes, who is signed for another three seasons at $6MM per year, is hoping to move up from the third line last year to a top-six role this season. “I’ve played with a 220-pound frame for 8-10 years in the league, and now it’s going to be a little lighter and a little leaner,” Backes said. “It’s my attempt to adapt to what changes have gone on in the league. It might just swing back the other way and be a heavier, harder league. But it’s certainly more skillful and quick, and that’s just the realization I had to make.”
  • NHL.com’s Matt Cudzinowski writes that Montreal Canadiens center Jake Evans has high hopes to make the team out of training camp this year. The 22-year-old, who finished four years at Notre Dame, last offseason is finally healthy after requiring surgery in May to repair a sports hernia and now hopes he can take on his next challenge as he’s been practicing with Dallas’ Tyler Seguin and Washington’s Tom Wilson this summer. As a senior, he tallied 13 goals and 46 points last season for the Fighting Irish and now hopes to take his talents directly to Montreal. “I want to go in with a mindset of making the Canadiens, but I also need to go in open-minded and ready to learn from guys who’ve been there for a long time – how they handle their bodies, how they act,” concluded Evans.

Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Krug, Reinhart, Kotkaniemi

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With the last piece of major housekeeping completed in Detroit after the Red Wings signed star Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM deal, the team now has to take a look at their salary cap, which they will be over, even after they move forward Johan Franzen to LTIR. General manager Ken Holland told The Athletic’s Craig Custance, they will likely be “in the neighborhood” of $1MM over the cap.

“We’re very tight,” Holland said on Friday of the cap situation. “With this deal, we’re probably a dribble over. Not a lot, but we’re over. We’re going to have to make some decisions moving forward.”

One possibility would be to bury the contracts of Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski in the minors. However, if the team believes that veteran Henrik Zetterberg could end up missing the season as his injuries haven’t improved this summer, the team could place him on LTIR as well and wouldn’t have anything else to worry about. Custance adds, however, that if Zetterberg does return, that likely would end the chances of 2018 first-round pick Filip Zadina of making the roster out of training camp.

  • In a mailbag series, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that with eight quality NHL defenseman on the roster, the team will likely make a trade before the season starts. The team has Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Adam McQuaid, John Moore, Kevan Miller, Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the roster. The scribe writes that could mean that the team might be ready to move Krug if the team can get a big return for the blueliner. And they would need to, as Krug is one of the top offensive defensemen in the league as only Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Brent Burns and John Klingberg have more points over the last two seasons. He has 22 goals and 110 points combined in that time.
  • The Athletic’s Ryan Stimson (subscription required) wonders where restricted free agent Sam Reinhart should play next year in the Buffalo Sabres’ lineup once he signs. The 22-year-old center has been a decent center for the Sabres in the past, but saw his game blossom once he was moved up and played on the wing next to top-line center Jack Eichel. With the team moving on from Ryan O’Reilly and bringing in prospect Casey Mittelstadt, what should the team do with Reinhart? The scribe breaks down Reinhart’s game and wonders if it would be best for the youngster to take over the team’s No. 2 center position and ease Mittelstadt in.
  • The Athletic’s Mitch Brown (subscription required) ranks the Montreal Canadiens’ top five prospects with 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi listed as their top prospect. The young centerman, who flew up the draft boards in the final weeks, anchors a list of prospects that Brown believes is the most exciting in the last five or six years. He has been successful playing in the SM-liiga as an 18-year-old and is expected to fill that long-waited hole in the middle.

Atlantic Notes: Reinhart, Panthers, Forsbacka Karlsson, Canadiens

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The recent restricted free agent deals signed by Calgary’s Elias Lindholm (6-year, $29.1MM deal) and Minnesota’s Jason Zucker (6-year, $27.5MM deal) may be interesting, but no one might be more intrigued by those deals than Buffalo Sabres restricted free agent Sam Reinhart.

The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington cites that Reinhart has quite similar numbers to that of both Lindholm and Zucker. Reinhart is coming off a 25-goal, 50-point season, while Lindholm tallied 16 goals and 44 points. Zucker potted 33 goals for 66 points. So a long-term extension could look similar to those two deal.

However, Harrington also adds that the Sabres are likely maneuvering for a shorter bridge deal as the team still isn’t sure what they have in Reinhart. He was drafted in the same 2014 draft that produced Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, who is also looking for a long-term deal. Yet, Larkin is the face of Detroit’s franchise, while Reinhart is not with players like Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin around.

  • Jameson Olive of the Florida Panthers website reports that he recently interviewed Panthers’ general manager Dave Tallon, who said there are still a number of players available out there that the GM likes, so don’t be surprised if the Panthers aren’t done dealing. The Panthers have been relatively quiet this offseason, although they did trade for Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman earlier this year as well as sign goaltender Michael Hutchinson to a one-year deal through free agency. The team’s biggest addition is likely to come from their youth as prospects like Henrik Borgstrom and Owen Tippett are expected to take on full-time roles with the team this season. However, could a trade still be in the works?
  • The Athletic’s Joe McDonald (subscription required) writes that the Boston Bruins expect that prospect Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson will challenge for the third-line center job in training camp this year. The 21-year-old, who was a second-round pick back in 2015, posted 15 goals and 32 points in his first season in the AHL and hopes to make the jump next season. “He’s got the ability,” Providence Bruins coach Jay Leach said. “He has a high level of skill and can make high-end plays, the kind of plays you need your third-line center to make at the NHL level. He went through a year last year where he turned into a professional hockey player. He was playing against men, and there were some adjustments, and he still had a pretty solid year.”
  • Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette notes that many people are wondering why the Montreal Canadiens left $8MM in cap room sitting around last season when they could have spent it to upgrade their team. With no free agents to worry about, the team has almost the same amount of money available to spend this season, but once again seems content not to spend that money, suggesting the team would rather save that money for their profits. He wonders if Montreal fans are willing to accept a bargain-basement team.

Sabres Re-Sign RFA Forward Danny O’Regan

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The Buffalo Sabres continue to work through a substantial list of restricted free agents. While it was reported yesterday that they had agreed to terms with forward Nicholas Baptiste, the team this morning both confirmed that deal and announced the signing of fellow RFA forward Danny O’Regan. With the deadline for accepting a qualifying offer arriving later today, O’Regan accepted his offer of $874,125 at the NHL level and $70K at the AHL level.

O’Regan was acquired by the Sabres at the NHL Trade Deadline in the deal that sent Evander Kane to the San Jose Sharks. The 2012 fifth-round pick had recorded four assists through 19 games with Sharks prior to the deal and saw action in two contests with Buffalo down the stretch, but was held scoreless. While his NHL offensive efforts to date – five points in 22 games – are underwhelming, O’Regan has not yet been put in a position to succeed, seeing limited ice time in an energy role. That could change in Buffalo, where he joins former Boston University teammates Jack Eichel and Evan Rodrigues up front for the Sabres. O’Regan displayed strong offensive instincts and scoring ability at BU and in his only full season at the AHL level, scoring at a point-per-game pace over the three campaigns. If given proper opportunity up in Buffalo, O’Regan could prove to be an exciting addition.

With O’Regan and Baptiste officially in the books, that still leaves Justin Bailey, C.J. Smith, and most importantly Sam Reinhart as remaining restricted free agents for GM Jason Botterill and the Sabres to sort out. Perhaps before the deadline today, new deals can be hammered out with Bailey and Smith – both of whom could be bound for the AHL for much of next season – but work on Reinhart’s extension is slow and steady.

Buffalo Signs Brandon Hickey To Entry-Level Contract

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After acquiring defenseman Brandon Hickey from the Arizona Coyotes last month, the Sabres had until August to sign the Boston University product before he became an unrestricted free agent. Per The Athletic’s John Vogl, Buffalo has gotten a deal done, signing Hickey to a two-year entry-level contract.

The 22-year-old blueliner could have been an unrestricted free agent if he waited until Aug. 1. With the belief that they couldn’t sign him, Arizona sent him along with Mike Sislo to Buffalo for winger Hudson Fasching. Buffalo felt they could ink the four-year college veteran and now they have.

Hickey put up solid numbers at BU as he tallied six goals and 14 points this past season. At 6-foot-2, he provides Buffalo with some size and while he’s a better defensive player, is considered to have the skills to develop into a solid two-way player. He has already played with several Sabres’ players while at Boston University, including Jack Eichel, Evan Rodrigues and Daniel O’Regan.

Hickey likely will start the season with the AHL Rochester Americans and along with some of their other defensive prospects like Lawrence Pilut, Taylor Fedun, Zach Redmond and Matt Tennyson, the team should have quite a few talented pieces in their system.

Sabres Notes: O’Reilly, Ristolainen, Bogosian, Grubauer

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With the Stanley Cup champions crowned and the offseason getting underway, the trade season is about to get started. In Buffalo, many expect general manager Jason Botterill to make some changes after a dysfunctional season. The most popular name on the trade rumor circuit is Buffalo’s Ryan O’Reilly, who helped out the rumors after his season ended when he remarked he hated losing and lost his passion for the game around a locker room full of players who don’t care.

However, the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington believes that trading O’Reilly would be a mistake and advises Botterill to hold onto the center. One key reason is the team has now added two key players in Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin, both who should take the talent level up a notch in Buffalo. Trading a quality center in his prime doesn’t make a lot of sense if the goal is to be more competitive. How would the team replace O’Reilly’s minutes if the team traded him away? And that doesn’t even mention his value for his ability to win faceoffs.

Harrington said his comments made after the season makes sense. He wants to win. He is desperate for a winning situation. O’Reilly has already said at the World Championships last month that he was stoked about the Sabres winning the draft lottery and wants to stay in Buffalo. Another argument is that while he has a large contract, O’Reilly’s $52MM contract was heavily frontloaded with Buffalo already having paid $20MM in the first two years. Starting in 2019-20, he will cost just $6MM per year ($5MM signing bonus, $1MM salary), making it a very affordable contract in the coming years.

  • Harrington does say that the team probably should look to move on from defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. With Dahlin coming in, the team doesn’t need him as bad and the scribe believes that the constant losing has gotten to Ristolainen more than anyone and had trouble seeing eye-to-eye with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, suggesting that the defenseman might need a change of scenery. Ristolainen’s numbers declined slightly in his fifth year with the team as he had six goals and 41 points in 73 games. He notes a trade rumor of Ristolainen for Edmonton’s Oscar Klefbom as a smart way to give two players change of sceneries without disrupting the team’s overall defense.
  • In the same article, Harrington questions the intelligence of buying out defenseman Zach Bogosian this offseason. With two more years on his seven-year, $36MM deal he signed back in 2013 with the Winnipeg Jets at $5.14MM AAV, the team might be better off sticking with his contract. A buyout would reduce their cap hit to $1.14MM over the next two years, but the Sabres would then have to shell out $2MM for the next two years following that when he wouldn’t be on the books anymore. Considering the team isn’t dealing with major cap implications at the moment, a buyout wouldn’t make much sense.
  • Harrington adds that the Sabres need to be taking a serious look at Washington Capitals goaltender Philipp Grubauer. With a major need in goal and the New York Islanders already showing interest, it would make a lot of sense for the Sabres to trade for the backup goaltender. After taking the starting job from Brayden Holtby for a time near the end of the season, many believe Grubauer is ready for a starters’ role next year.

Draft Day Trade Rumors: O’Reilly, Hoffman, Coyotes, Maple Leafs

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Given the last-place finish of the Buffalo Sabres and the comments made by veteran leader Ryan O’Reilly at the end of the season, it would come as no surprise if the team was to trade away their best player not named Jack Eichel in an effort to build around Eichel and his fellow promising young players. Earlier today, TSN’s Darren Dreger spoke on the extensive demands that Buffalo GM Jason Botterill has for any return in an O’Reilly deal and, while he admitted that a deal is beginning to seem more likely, felt that it would take a lot of work for any team to make a fair offer in Botterill’s eyes. Dreger’s TSN colleague and The Athletic reporter Pierre LeBrun seems slightly more optimistic about the likelihood of a deal. LeBrun admits that O’Reilly likely wouldn’t mind returning to Buffalo, what with Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin likely in the fold next year and beyond, and the Sabres may not mind keeping him. However, LeBrun opines that if John Tavares re-signs with the New York Islanders prior to the NHL Draft, the top center on the free agent market will be Paul Stastny and many teams would prefer to search the trade market instead, where O’Reilly appears to be the top prize down the middle. Given the Sabres’ desire to add young pieces – picks and prospects – to develop alongside their new, young core, the draft would be the ideal time to strike on an O’Reilly trade. LeBrun goes so far as to say that the Montreal Canadiens have already discussed such a deal.

  • Another player who LeBrun feels is primed to be dealt during or around the upcoming draft is Ottawa Senators forward Mike Hoffman. Hoffman was a frequent member of the rumor mill through the most recent NHL Trade Deadline, but remained in Ottawa, at least for the time being. LeBrun says that those rumors are back in full swing and that he feels Hoffman will be traded at the draft. The Senators are not trending in the right direction and could benefit from both the multi-piece return that Hoffman would command and a reprieve from his $5.18MM salary over the next two seasons. LeBrun notes that the Los Angeles Kings and Calgary Flames were the top suitors for Hoffman at the deadline, but the St. Louis Blues and Florida Panthers were also among a plethora of teams pursuing a player who has flirted with 30 goals and 60 points for three years in a row.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes and Vancouver Canucks have already been rumored to be listening on offers for their top ten picks in the upcoming draft; add the Arizona Coyotes to that list as well. LeBrun states that the team has contemplated offers and would consider moving up or down on draft day, depending on how the picks fall. LeBrun believes that GM John Chayka has already spoken with the Montreal Canadiens about a swap involving picks #3 and #5, in case the Habs feel they can get the top center in the draft, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, later on and if the ’Yotes have a preferred choice between potential second overall picks Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. He also feels that there is a strong chance that they could trade down, given the depth of defensemen in the first round versus the desire of other teams to move up for top forwards. Look for Arizona to be busy on the draft floor later this month.
  • Another team that could be making moves on draft day are the Toronto Maple Leafs. In a mailbag for The Athletic, Jame Mirtle says to expect new GM Kyle Dubas to trade down, perhaps even multiple times, during the draft. When Dubas ran the draft for the Leafs in 2015 he employed this strategy, seen far more often in the NFL than NHL. Dubas traded down twice in order to collect multiple picks in later rounds. In a draft that many feel has a significant drop-off in talent after the first 20-odd picks to a tier that encompasses the next 60 or so picks, if Toronto feels that they don’t have a surefire option at 25th overall, they could swap with a team who has a specific player in mind and potentially grab multiple player of similar caliber later on.

Buffalo, Montreal, Carolina Early Winners In Draft Lottery

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The Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes each have won spots in the top three of the 2018 NHL draft at Saturday night’s NHL Draft Lottery. Any of the three can win the first overall pick and consensus first-overall pick defenseman Rasmus Dahlin in upcoming draft. The three teams will have to wait until the second intermission in tonight’s game between the San Jose Sharks and the Vegas Golden Knights to find out which of them won the lottery.

Buffalo, which has had the best chance to win the lottery in three of the last five years are still in it as the Sabres hope to add a franchise changing defenseman to their core of young players including Jack Eichel. The Sabres drafted eighth each of the last two years. They picked second in 2015 when they took Jack Eichel.

Montreal, who had the fourth best chance to get the top pick also won the lottery and will move up. The addition of Dahlin to their defense could help rebuild their blueline after an injury-plagued season by their top defenseman Shea Weber.

Carolina is the biggest surprise as they had the 11th best chance to fall into the top three. The franchise, flooded with quality young defensemen, would only get richer if they end up with the first overall pick.

Regardless of the top pick, there are several other top players that will round out the top three, including forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk.

 

Morning Notes: O’Reilly, Maple Leafs, De Haan

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The Buffalo Sabres held their locker clean out today after another season where they find themselves at the very bottom of the standings. The Sabres will have the best chance at selecting first overall in the upcoming draft, but that didn’t cheer up Ryan O’Reilly, who spoke candidly about how he has struggled with morale this season. O’Reilly is quoted in John Vogl’s piece for the Buffalo News:

We’re stuck in this mindset of just being OK with losing. I feel it, too. I think it’s really crept into myself. Over the course of the year, I’ve lost myself a lot, where it’s just kind of get through, just being OK with just not making a mistake. That’s not winning hockey at all, and it’s crept into all of our games.

It’s disappointing. It’s sad. I feel throughout the year I’ve lost the love of the game multiple times. You need to get back to it because it’s just eating myself up and eats the other guys, too. It’s just eating us up, and it’s tough.

The Sabres have finished out of the playoffs for the last seven seasons, and haven’t had any real postseason success in over a decade. With a rookie coach and GM in Phil Housley and Jason Botterill, things will have to turn around quickly if they want ownership to stick with them long-term. Jack Eichel will begin his $80MM contract extension next season, while O’Reilly still has five years at $7.5MM left on his deal. Those two will have to be the key members of any bounce back, though they’ll certainly need some help along the way.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs will carry $2.55MM in bonuses over to next season according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, who notes that they also have close to $21MM coming off the books this summer. Interestingly, that bonus number could still increase by another $2MM should Auston Matthews take home the Conn Smythe trophy. The Maple Leafs will have a reduced amount of cap room because of it, and plenty of decisions to make on unrestricted free agents like James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov.
  • Calvin de Haan would welcome a return to the New York Islanders according to Andrew Gross of Newsday, but is aware of the lack of defensemen on the free agent market this summer. de Haan’s season ended in December after just 33 games, which clouds his future considerably. At one point (including on our Midseason UFA Power Rankings) he looked like he was set to hit the market as one of the best defensemen available. Now, it’s entirely unclear if he’ll be able to secure a long-term deal at all.

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