2018-19 Season Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
With the NHL season now just a month away, it’s time to look at what each team has done this summer and what to watch for in the year to come. Today, we focus on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Last Season: 54-23-5 record (113 points), third in the Atlantic Division (lost to Washington in the Eastern Conference Finals)
Remaining Cap Space: $2.646MM per CapFriendly
Key Additions: D Cameron Gaunce (free agent, Columbus); Kevin Lynch (free agent, Syracuse Crunch (AHL))
Key Departures: F Chris Kunitz (free agent, Chicago Blackhawks); D Andrej Sustr (Anaheim Ducks); F Matthew Peca (Montreal Canadiens); F Erik Condra (Dallas Stars); Mathew Bodie (Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod (KHL)); F Alex Gallant (Vegas Golden Knights)
[Related: Lightning Depth Chart From Roster Resource]
Player To Watch: F Nikita Kucherov – The 25-year-old superstar quietly signed a eight-year, $76MM extension this offseason and after breaking the 100-point barrier, many wonder if Kucherov takes another step this season. He broke the 100-point barrier last year as his assist totals took a jump, most likely in part because of his success playing next to center Steven Stamkos.
However, is there more that Kucherov can do to help the team capture a Stanley Cup? The winger took his game up a notch after the 2016-17 season when he jumped from 30 to 40 goals. Then last season, he took those assists up a notch, raising his assist totals from 45 to 61, while maintaining his goal-scoring prowess as he still tallied 39 goals last season.
The real question is whether the 100-point performance last season is just Kucherov scratching the surface of his potential or whether he will slip back to his 80-pont ways. No matter what, he remains one of the best plaeyrs in the NHL, but one wonders how much better he can be.
Key Storyline: General manager Steve Yzerman has never been shy of making a big trade to add talent for their Stanley Cup run. He did that at the trade deadline last year when the team went out and acquired two key pieces for their run when they got defenseman Ryan McDonagh and winger J.T. Miller, both who were critical to their playoff run. Unfortunately, they hit the Washington Capitals’ wall and failed to reach the Stanley Cup Finals, but they were extremely close.
The team didn’t make many moves in the offseason, but were rumored to be in on a potential Erik Karlsson trade and at one point it looked like it was a done deal. However, the team may not have been ready to part with talented defenseman Mikhail Sergachev at the time. However, with Karlsson still in Ottawa, don’t be shocked if the Lightning do everything it can to bring the star defenseman aboard. If the team could find itself with a top-four of Victor Hedman, McDonagh, Karlsson and Sergachev, the team’s defense might be the best in hockey.
Overall Outlook: There may be only eight teams that could be considered legitimate candidates to win the Stanley Cup this year and Tampa Bay would likely be considered among the top two or three teams this year. With their offensive success throughout their forward lines as well as a developing defense with two solid top-two defenders on the roster and the most talented young goaltender in the NHL at the moment in Andrei Vasilevskiy, the team is in good hands for the 2018-19 season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Nurse, Karlsson, Crawford, Seattle
Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse is one of the more prominent remaining restricted free agents and the belief for quite some time has been that he will inevitably sign a short-term bridge contract. However, there is nothing imminent on the contract front for the 23-year-old, agent Anton Thun told Postmedia’s Jim Matheson. A two-year deal with a cap hit around $3MM has been the expected outcome but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the sides change gears and look at a one-year contract if they can’t bridge the gap on the two-year pact in the coming days. Matheson adds that Nurse will not be at training camp next week without a deal in place.
Elsewhere around the league:
- The Senators have received a trade offer for defenseman Erik Karlsson that features six elements in it, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (audio link). The offer is believed to consist of a pair of roster players, two prospects, plus a pair of draft picks although it’s contingent on Karlsson agreeing to a long-term contract extension. Dreger notes that the offer came in several weeks ago without a deal happening but that at least provides a better idea of what Ottawa is looking for in order to move their franchise player.
- The health of Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford has been in question for a while dating back to last season. While he has made progress, team president John McDonough acknowledged to Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times that he hopes the netminder will be ready when training camp opens up next Friday. Crawford is believed to have not taken part in on-ice sessions since mid-February so even if he is physically ready to practice, it will take a while for him to get game ready.
- While the Seattle group secured additional investors and completed negotiations on multiple arena agreements yesterday, NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly cautioned that this doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be ready to begin playing in 2020-21. Instead, he told reporters, including ESPN’s Emily Kaplan, that the Board of Governors is eyeing 2021-22 as the potential start date, assuming Seattle eventually goes through the approval process. He added that there won’t be a vote from the board at their next meeting with Seattle’s representatives on October 2nd.
Is Vancouver Looking To Make A Big Splash?
It is no secret that the Vancouver Canucks do not operate like a typical rebuilding team. Make no mistake, the team has accrued plenty of talented young building blocks over the past few years: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen, Adam Gaudette, Quinn Hughes, Olli Juolevi, Thatcher Demko, Michael DiPietro and the list goes on. However, the team has also gone about business as usual, signing free agents and at times even overpaying to add veterans to the roster. Over the past two off-seasons, Vancouver has taken roster spots away from younger players in order to sign the likes of Erik Gudbranson, Sam Gagner, Michael Del Zotto, Anders Nilsson, Thomas Vanek, Darren Archibald, Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Tim Schaller and more. The moves have put the team no closer to being a contender. The Canucks have not advanced past the first round of the playoffs since their 2011 Stanley Cup Final appearance and have failed to reach the postseason altogether in each of the past three years. It seems unlikely that the trend will change any time soon, either.
The Province’s Ed Willes is worried that things might get even worse. Willes claims that recently departed team president Trevor Linden ” lost his job because he favored a patient, methodical approach to the team’s rebuild”. With Linden gone, the team has been even more aggressive than usual this summer in targeting older players. Vancouver made an offer to John Tavares that was rejected and more recently has been linked to Erik Karlsson. While he isn’t convinced the team has the means to acquire Karlsson, the fear is that some player will come along on the trade market that they can afford and will deplete their promising prospect ranks to acquire. Willes firmly believes that Benning and the Canucks are in the hunt for a cornerstone player, no matter the cost.
Just as it has in recent years, even adding an elite veteran player is unlikely to get the Canucks to where they want to be. As it is currently composed, the team lacks the supporting cast to be a true contender. The greatest strength of the organization is the youth waiting in the wings, with at least two goaltenders, four defensemen, and eight forwards under the age of 25 that are all almost universally expected to be NHL regulars for a long time to come. Yet, the cost of adding a marquee player would be a package of those exact players or upcoming (early) draft picks. The patient approach that Linden fought for could transform the Canucks into one of the league’s top teams in five years time. An impatient acquisition could cost them what progress they have made and, in Willes’ opinion, cost them fans as well. So perhaps the question is not “is Vancouver looking to make a big splash?”, but “should Vancouver be looking to make a big splash?” and the answer seems to be a convincing no.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Current Projected Cap Hit: $76,853,780 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry Level Contracts
D Mikhail Sergachev (two years, $894K)
F Anthony Cirelli (two years, $728K)
F Brayden Point (one year, $687K)
Potential Bonuses:
Sergachev: $850K
Cirelli: $183K
Point: $183K
Total: $1.22MM
After a impressive rookie campaign, the Lightning knew they had a special player in Point, who proceeded to have a breakout year as the team’s second-line center. Point, who is good enough to be a No. 1 center, provided the team with a 32-goal, 66-point season. Now in his third year, Point could really walk away with a huge payday if he can equal or even better on that performance this year. Cirelli looks to have the third-line center spot locked down after the 21-year-old had a successful, but short stint, last season. He posted five goals and 11 points in 18 games last season and played in all 17 games of the playoffs, adding a pair of goals.
Sergachev has two years remaining on his contract and the 20-year-old defenseman had an up and down season, but still posted a nine-goal, 40-point season. He did have trouble getting regular minutes as the team often lost faith in his defensive play along with some immaturity issues. Regardless, the left-handed shot actually proved to head coach Jon Cooper that he can play on the right side, solving their depth issues on the right side. Sergachev should continue to develop his skills and also be in line for a big payday in two years.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry Level
D Anton Stralman ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM, UFA)
D Dan Girardi ($3MM, UFA)
F Yanni Gourde ($1MM, UFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($1MM, RFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($865K, RFA)
D Jake Dotchin ($813K, RFA)
F Adam Erne ($800K, RFA)
F Andy Andreoff ($678K, UFA)
F Cory Conacher ($650K, UFA)
For a team known for its defensive depth on its defense, it’s a little shocking to see that they only have three players signed after the 2018-19 season. Almost all of the team’s defense become free agents, restricted or otherwise, including Stralman, Coburn, Girardi, Koekkoek and Dotchin. With the team heavily laden in long-term deals, the team might be willing to allow Stralman, Coburn and Girardi to walk at the end of the year. All three are solid players, but there might not be any cap room to extend any of them, especially if the team has to give long-term deals to both Sergachev and Point. Stralman’s situation will be the most interesting as he’s a solid defenseman that complements his partner quite well and was the veteran who mentored Sergachev last season. Coburn and Girardi are likely expendable. Koekkoek and Dotchin will only be restricted free agents, but neither got a lot of playing time with the team, especially after the team added defensive talent at the trade deadline. However, both could play bigger roles this year, or within two years.
Another interesting decision the team will have to make is Gourde, who posted a breakout season in his first full season. The 26-year-old spent many years working on his game in the AHL before finally catching on with the Syracuse Crunch in 2014. From there he worked his way up before catching the team’s eye in training camp to win a spot. The result was a 25-goal, 64-point performance and now he has to prove he can duplicate that performance this season to get a big boost in his pay. For $1MM, Gourde may be the best bargain on the team, but he could get pricey quickly.Read more
Craig Anderson Content To Stay With Senators
It wasn’t long ago that Craig Anderson had requested a trade out of Ottawa and the Senators were looking to oblige him. The well-liked and respected goalie was coming off of a difficult season that saw him post a .898 SV% and a 3.32 GAA as the starter for the second-worst team in the NHL last year. He also had to keep his family in mind, as his wife – who had finally beaten her publicized battle with cancer – and kids still reside in Florida. Fast forward about eight weeks and the veteran goalie has changed his tune.
Whether it be due changes to those personal circumstances, a change of mind about his role in Ottawa, or simply due to lack of interest in the trade market, it seems that Anderson is okay with sticking around with the Senators. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun writes that Anderson is ready for a “fresh start” with the team. The 37-year-old still has two years remaining on his contract and now says he wants to stay in Ottawa and make the best of what are likely the twilight years of his career. Anderson was quoted as saying “Ottawa. I’ve been there for eight years now, and that’s my home. I’ve got no interest in going anywhere else”.
Ironically, Anderson mentioned that he was “too old for drama” when talking about wanting to make things right with the Senators and their fans. No team in the league, or perhaps all of sports, has been more embroiled in drama of late than Ottawa. Although the situation surrounding Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, and their significant others – a situation that Anderson claims he was unaware of – has been resolved with Hoffman’s trade, there is still the matter of problematic owner Eugene Melnyk and a dwindling fan base who may watch their team finish dead last this season and potentially give away the first overall pick. The Senators are not short on controversy, and while Anderson might be talking about his own contentious relationship with the team due to his inconsistent pay and perceived poor value, he is not out of the woods yet when it comes to dealing with drama.
Contract Talks “At A Standstill” Between Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars
Just over a month ago here on PHR we ran an article detailing the speculation and rumor that was bound to start surrounding Tyler Seguin as the year approached. The superstar center is heading into the final season of his current contract with the Dallas Stars and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2019. Like John Tavares last year, Seguin is a franchise-changing talent that could completely alter the free agent market if he decides to see what is available, and will be a story closely followed by the hockey world all season long. That interest crept to the surface today, when Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet tweeted that contract talks between the Stars and Seguin are “at a standstill and have been for quite some time.”
Kypreos compared the situation directly to the Tavares one, and that Seguin wants to sign a long-term deal, but speculation will surely follow the tweet. Even if the two sides haven’t spoken about an extension in some time, there is no reason to believe that means they won’t circle back in the near future and try to work something out. The team does have plenty of cap space moving forward as only Jamie Benn ($9.5MM) and Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM) carry real bank-breaking cap hits. John Klingberg, the team’s Norris-caliber defenseman is signed for four more seasons at just a $4.25MM cap hit while most of the rest of the roster are on short-term deals.
Interestingly though Kypreos also brought up the ongoing Erik Karlsson situation, and intimated that the team is still trying to acquire the Ottawa Senators captain. Dallas has been connected to Karlsson in the past, but were hesitant to include top prospect Miro Heiskanen in any trade. It seems likely that Karlsson will be traded to a team that has plans for a contract extension of his own, something that would certainly make fitting in Seguin more difficult. The Senators star is expected to be looking for similar terms to Drew Doughty‘s eight-year, $88MM extension.
Whether the Stars are involved with Karlsson talks or not, this sort of report is sure to become a near-daily occurrence until a decision is made on Seguin. If the team believes he might walk in free agency they could decide to trade him at some point, given the recent example of Tavares signing in Toronto without any compensation for the Islanders. That is months away from even being an option though, given that there hasn’t been any hint of unhappiness from the Seguin camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Erik Karlsson Refutes Report About Canadian Cities
Yesterday, several reports surfaced that Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson did not want to sign an extension in a Canadian city and preferred to have his next deal take him to the United States. Today, the superstar defenseman wanted to clear the air and reached out to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman to refute the report. Karlsson told Friedman that the report saying he is “unwilling to sign long-term with a Canadian team” is false, but wouldn’t go any further. Karlsson has been extremely quiet on the whole situation this summer, waiting until training camp to address the media.
Teams looking to acquire Karlsson from the Senators this offseason are likely asking about a extension, given that the 28-year old is heading into the final season of his current contract and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in July of 2019. If Karlsson was truly against signing anywhere in Canada it would limit Senators GM Pierre Dorion’s options, though there’s no guarantee at this point that the defenseman is willing to sign anywhere. With Drew Doughty, Ryan Ellis, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Ryan McDonagh all off the market after signing extensions this summer, Karlsson could find himself as the lone big ticket defensemen available in free agency.
That idea of picking your destination must be tempting, especially when you then know your new team isn’t wasting a pile of future assets to acquire you. Signing in free agency leaves the roster of a new team relatively in tact, something that no one would be able to say after trading for Karlsson. The Senators are surely looking for an enormous package in return for the face of their franchise, including roster pieces and prospects. An agreement like that is obviously affected by whether or not Karlsson is willing to sign long-term, or if Bobby Ryan is indeed strapped to him as a salary dump for the Senators.
For all the speculation that has surrounded Karlsson the last few months, the Senators captain has never said an ill word about the city of Ottawa. He and his wife live in the city and have strong ties to the community, and will likely continue to do so regardless of where he plays in 2018-19. While it doesn’t seem like a long-term extension is coming with the Senators after negotiations halted earlier this offseason, Karlsson has made it clear that he is not staunchly against playing in Canada.
The Vancouver Canucks were the Canadian team most recently linked to the Karlsson trade talks, though almost immediately came out to say they were not actively involved. Other teams that could certainly use the right-handed offensive defenseman include the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens, though it’s not clear if any have even approached the Senators about a potential trade. Karlsson does also hold a 10-team no-trade list, meaning he has at least some control over who the Senators talk to.
Latest On Erik Karlsson Trade Rumors
After Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet threw a match into the puddle of gasoline that is an Erik Karlsson trade rumor yesterday, speculation has ran wild about where the Ottawa Senators captain will start the season. Friedman was on NHL Network recently, and reiterated that he believes the Senators are ready to move on.
A few years ago Dany Heatley showed up on the first day of camp with the Senators, and the Senators were like “can we fix this?” and they realized they couldn’t. They made the [Heatley] trade right away with San Jose. I think they’ve just decided they don’t want to carry [the Karlsson situation] into the season if they can avoid it.
Karlsson has been in the news for some time, given that the Senators haven’t been able to reach an extension with their superstar defenseman. The 28-year old is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, leave the team with little choice but to trade him for future assets if he’s not willing to sign long-term with the club. There had been talk about Karlsson potentially discussing an extension with interested teams, which would obviously increase the value of the return for the Senators, but now there may be a hitch in those talks. Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest tweets that Karlsson does not want to sign an extension with a Canadian team, which could potentially take teams like the Vancouver Canucks—who were mentioned by Friedman yesterday, but quickly denied their involvement—out of the running.
There’s no guarantee that Karlsson wants to sign an extension with anyone at present, given that he could be the big fish on the open market next summer. Now that Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis and Ryan McDonagh have all signed long-term deals, Karlsson projects to be the one real star defenseman available in free agency. At that point he could essentially choose his destination, as one would have to believe that almost the entire league would express some interest in him as a UFA.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see who rises as the front runner for a Karlsson trade and whether a Canadian team can wiggle their way into extension talks. The star defenseman has always spoken highly of his love for the city of Ottawa, but it doesn’t appear at this point like he’ll be spending the next portion of his career there.
Snapshots: Canucks, Chimera, Amorosa
While the Canucks were a team that was surprisingly linked to Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson earlier this morning, GM Jim Benning told Sportsnet’s John Shannon (Twitter link) that the team is not involved in discussions for the Ottawa blueliner. Given that Vancouver appears to be heading into at least a soft rebuild, giving up considerable assets for the pending unrestricted free agent would seem to be somewhat counterproductive. However, with more than $9MM in cap room at the moment (per CapFriendly), Vancouver would make some sense as a potential fit to get involved as a third party facilitator if someone needs to clear some short-term cap room or retain on Karlsson’s deal before flipping him, similar to what Vegas did with Derick Brassard last season.
Other notes from around the league:
- While this is the time of the offseason where veteran free agents typically have to take a tryout agreement to go to training camp, winger Jason Chimera told Postmedia’s Jim Matheson (Twitter link) that he’s unsure if he’d be willing to take a PTO. The 39-year-old is still a strong skater but saw his production drop considerably last season as he went from 20 goals and 33 points to just three and ten respectively. At this stage coupled with his struggles last season, it may be tough for him to land a guaranteed one-way pact so unless he’s open to the idea of a tryout, he will likely be on the outside looking in when the puck drops in October.
- UFA defenseman Terrance Amorosa has signed a one-year deal with San Diego of the AHL, affiliate of the Ducks, the minor league team announced. The former fifth-rounder of the Flyers became a free agent last week after failing to sign with Philadelphia and was one of the top players available in this free agent class.
Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Picking Up
After the last few weeks have brought little in terms of trade speculation around the NHL, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has sparked the fire again surrounding Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators. Friedman tweets that trade talks involving the superstar defenseman have picked up recently, with Western Conference destinations—potentially including the Vancouver Canucks—as the most likely. West teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars had previously been linked to Karlsson, though it’s unclear if they’re included in the recent discussions.
For Vancouver the acquisition of Karlsson would seem unlikely, given that the team is still rebuilding and there is no guarantee that the Senators defenseman would be open to an extension. Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet tweets that Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson are all completely off the table for the Canucks, making it hard to imagine a package strong enough to beat any other contender for Karlsson’s services. Interestingly MacIntyre does not mention top prospect Olli Juolevi, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he would be available.
There are obviously dozens of other teams in the NHL who would be interested in Karlsson, though many of them won’t be able to afford an extension that could push towards Drew Doughty‘s eight-year $88MM contract. Ottawa would likely receive the biggest return from a team that can immediately extend Karlsson, but that could also dramatically reduce their trading partners. The Golden Knights have the prospect capital and cap space to fit a star like Karlsson in, and the Colorado Avalanche have a trade chip that no one else in the league can match. That’s the Senators own first-round pick this season, acquired in the Matt Duchene trade from last season. After Ottawa chose to keep their 2018 pick and select Brady Tkachuk, they had to give up the 2019 pick and a potential opportunity at top prospect Jack Hughes. With the Senators expected to struggle this season—especially if Karlsson departs—the Avalanche could easily be holding a top-three pick in their pocket. For what it’s worth, Adrian Dater of BSN Denver isn’t hearing any connection with the Avalanche and Karlsson.
The Tampa Bay Lightning were the other team strongly linked to Karlsson in the past, and it’s unclear if they still pose a threat to acquire the defenseman. That would require Tampa Bay moving out other salary, but would make them an absolute powerhouse in the Eastern Conference and the favorite for a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. All of the other teams in the Atlantic Division will be hoping that the Senators’ captain heads out west and signs a long-term contract to stay out of their way.