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Erik Karlsson

Morning Notes: 2019 Draft, Schedule, Karlsson

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The 2019 NHL Entry Draft is ten months away and there will be plenty of speculation on who should be selected in the first round. Already prospect gurus are beginning to release their early lists, which almost all have Jack Hughes as the easy first-overall selection. Craig Button of TSN released his early top five at the end of the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament, and started with Russian forward Vasili Podkolzin in the fifth overall spot. Podkolzin had a great U18 tournament with 11 points in five games, and is starting to put together all the talent and skill that people have been waiting for.

Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required) released a more in-depth list for 2019, breaking down more than two dozen players who could find themselves selected in the first round next June. Wheeler goes with the consensus in spot number two and lists Kaapo Kakko as the easy selection after Hughes is off the board. The Finnish forward is almost pro-ready and looks like he’ll be a dominant puck-protecting forward for a long time.

  • For any readers in the United States, NBC has released their national broadcast schedule for the 2018-19 season which will include a record 109 games. Wednesday Night Hockey will now feature regular double headers and include a variety of teams from around the league. The first such occasion will kick off the season on Wednesday, October 3rd when the Washington Capitals welcome in the Boston Bruins and the Anaheim Ducks travel to San Jose to face the Sharks. Kevin Allen of USA Today provides the whole broadcast schedule.
  • Count at least one member of the Ottawa Senators that doesn’t want to see Erik Karlsson traded before the season begins. Thomas Chabot, a young defensemen trying to round out his game at the NHL level, spoke out about his hope to see Karlsson in uniform when the season begins. There has been very little smoke surrounding Karlsson of late, and if he does begin the year with the Senators there might be a good chance that Chabot is the player lined up beside him on the blue line. Though different players, Chabot told media at his charity golf tournament that he is trying to model his game after the Senators captain and doesn’t think anyone could replace Karlsson if they did move him.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $73,890,832 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Zach Werenski (one year remaining, $925K)
F Pierre-Luc Dubois (two years remaining, $894K)
F Sonny Milano (one year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Dubois: $2.5MM
Werenski: $800K
Milano: $400K

Total: $3.7MM

The Blue Jackets got a big boost from Dubois who should provide the team with a top center for quite a long time as the 20-year-old had a solid rookie campaign as he posted 20 goals and 48 points. Those numbers should exponentially increase as he gets older, bigger and more comfortable in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him develop into a 60-70 point player this year already. And with two years remaining, he will continue to be a bargain for some time.

Werenski had a mixed bag of a season as he saw his points totals drop from his rookie season (47 points) to his second season (37 points). Yet his goal totals increased from his rookie season (10) to his sophomore season (16). However, Werenski underwent surgery for a shoulder injury that had been causing him pain since October, suggesting he played injured all season. A fully healthy Werenski could give the team one of the top young defensemen in the league.

Milano arrived with much fanfare, but he struggled finding a permanent place in the lineup, as he often received relatively few minutes on the third line due to his struggles on defense. However, Milano showed flashes of scoring ability as the 22-year-old posted 14 goals in 55 games. With a year under his belt, Milano might be able to take those numbers to a much bigger level if he can prove he can play a two-way game for coach John Tortorella.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Sergei Bobrovsky ($7.43MM, UFA)
F Artemi Panarin ($6MM, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($2.83MM, RFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($900K, RFA)
F Lukas Sedlak ($825K, RFA)
F Alex Broadhurst ($725K, RFA)
F Markus Hannikainen ($675K, RFA)
D Scott Harrington ($675K, RFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($650K, RFA)

The biggest news all offseason is the fact that Panarin has told Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen says he’s not ready to discuss an extension. Despite the GM’s attempt to speak to Panarin to convince him to stay, it looks like Panarin wants to head elsewhere once his contract expires at the end of the season and he becomes a unrestricted free agent. The 27-year-old winger posted a career-high 82 points after being acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks, but seems to be looking to play in a city with a more diverse market. While there have been rumors that Kekalainen has been looking into trading options, little has come from it. The team may opt to wait until the trade deadline, but that could also lessen the return.

Perhaps more concerning is the contract situation with Bobrovsky. The 30-year-old goaltender is also in the final year of his contract. While there is no talk of leaving Columbus, the Blue Jackets have to be somewhat concerned about the veteran goaltender’s asking price. He will be 32 years old when his next contract takes effect, but Bobrovsky wants term, the team could be paying him until he’s 40 years old and it’s extremely likely that the goalie will take less money than the $7.43MM he’s making on this contract. However, that’s a lot of money to be handing out to an aging goaltender. Bobrovsky’s numbers are still good as he posted a 2.42 GAA and an impressive .920 save percentage in 63 games. However, his struggles in the playoffs isn’t working for him either. Regardless, the team could find itself in quite the contract negotiations in the coming summer.

Duclair is another interesting player, who signed a one-year deal after disappointing in both Arizona and Chicago. The 22-year-old opted to sign a minimum “show me” contract to prove he belongs in the NHL, but he’s struggled to produce over the years after a successful season back in 2015-16 when he potted 20 goals. Since then, he’s managed to post just 16 goals in two seasons. If he can find his game in Columbus, the Blue Jackets could still retain him as he’s a restricted free agent.Read more

Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Krug, Reinhart, Kotkaniemi

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With the last piece of major housekeeping completed in Detroit after the Red Wings signed star Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM deal, the team now has to take a look at their salary cap, which they will be over, even after they move forward Johan Franzen to LTIR. General manager Ken Holland told The Athletic’s Craig Custance, they will likely be “in the neighborhood” of $1MM over the cap.

“We’re very tight,” Holland said on Friday of the cap situation. “With this deal, we’re probably a dribble over. Not a lot, but we’re over. We’re going to have to make some decisions moving forward.”

One possibility would be to bury the contracts of Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski in the minors. However, if the team believes that veteran Henrik Zetterberg could end up missing the season as his injuries haven’t improved this summer, the team could place him on LTIR as well and wouldn’t have anything else to worry about. Custance adds, however, that if Zetterberg does return, that likely would end the chances of 2018 first-round pick Filip Zadina of making the roster out of training camp.

  • In a mailbag series, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that with eight quality NHL defenseman on the roster, the team will likely make a trade before the season starts. The team has Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Adam McQuaid, John Moore, Kevan Miller, Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the roster. The scribe writes that could mean that the team might be ready to move Krug if the team can get a big return for the blueliner. And they would need to, as Krug is one of the top offensive defensemen in the league as only Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Brent Burns and John Klingberg have more points over the last two seasons. He has 22 goals and 110 points combined in that time.
  • The Athletic’s Ryan Stimson (subscription required) wonders where restricted free agent Sam Reinhart should play next year in the Buffalo Sabres’ lineup once he signs. The 22-year-old center has been a decent center for the Sabres in the past, but saw his game blossom once he was moved up and played on the wing next to top-line center Jack Eichel. With the team moving on from Ryan O’Reilly and bringing in prospect Casey Mittelstadt, what should the team do with Reinhart? The scribe breaks down Reinhart’s game and wonders if it would be best for the youngster to take over the team’s No. 2 center position and ease Mittelstadt in.
  • The Athletic’s Mitch Brown (subscription required) ranks the Montreal Canadiens’ top five prospects with 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi listed as their top prospect. The young centerman, who flew up the draft boards in the final weeks, anchors a list of prospects that Brown believes is the most exciting in the last five or six years. He has been successful playing in the SM-liiga as an 18-year-old and is expected to fill that long-waited hole in the middle.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $70,812,500 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alex Tuch (One year remaining, $925K)
D Zach Whitecloud (Two years remaining, $925K)

Among the many things that went right for Vegas was the play of Tuch, who was a surprise in training camp and quickly earned himself a full-time role. The 6-foot-4, 222-pound winger had an impressive rookie season with the Golden Knights, scoring 15 goals and 37 points with much of his playing time coming with the team’s third line. He only improved over time, showing an ability to get into the corners and extend offensive opportunities for the team. He tallied six goals in the playoffs as well, which allowed the Golden Knights to let go veterans James Neal and David Perron, knowing that the 22-year-old Tuch is ready to take his game to the next level. With one year remaining on his entry-level deal, expect him to become a key restricted free agent for the team next season.

Potential Bonuses

Tuch: $93K
Whitecloud: $93K

Total: $186K

One Year Remaining, Non Entry-Level

F William Karlsson ($5.25MM, RFA)
D Nate Schmidt ($2.23MM, UFA)
F Oscar Lindberg ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.45MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($963K, RFA)
F Ryan Carpenter ($650K, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($650K, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($650K, RFA)

The most important piece the Vegas Golden Knights need to lock up is Karlsson, who just signed a one-year deal with Vegas Saturday. However, now the team has just one year to lock up Karlsson, the team’s top scorer, to a long-term extension. Less than a year, actually, as the team can’t agree to an extension until Jan. 1, 2019. That gives Vegas time to see how 25-year-old will respond in his second year. After piling up 43 goals last season (and seven more in the playoffs), the team wants to see that he can put up similar numbers before handing him a major deal considering the most he’s ever scored in his NHL career was nine goals.

The team will also have to lock up the speedy Schmidt, as well to a long-term deal at some point. The 27-year-old was a key figure on the Golden Knights defense, posting career highs of five goals and 36 points, but also showed his mettle in the playoffs, putting up another three goals and seven points. He could easily get a similar deal to the one that Miller signed with the team (four years, $15.5MM) earlier in the offseason. With an influx of prospects likely to hitting the team for the 2019-20 season, several veterans will have to prove they deserve new contracts this coming  year, including Lindberg, Bellemare, Engelland, Carpenter, Hunt and Subban, although unless someone has a breakout year, none should cost the team too much.

Two Years Remaining

F David Clarkson ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Cody Eakin ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($2.78MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.38MM, UFA)
F William Carrier ($725K, RFA)

The team likely will have to pay up if they want to keep Haula. The team’s second-line center may move to the third line now that the team locked up Stastny to a free agent deal. However, if Huala can continue to produce like he did last season, the 27-year-old should be able to fetch a nice contract. He had a career-high in goals last season as he scored 29 and 55 points.

The team should also recoup some of their losses as well in two years as Clarkson’s deal will expire, so that will free up $5.25MM for the team as the team currently has to wait till the start of the season before they can place his contract on LTIR. Others like Eakin and Reaves will likely have to earn another deal over the next two seasons. Both had solid showings for Vegas this year, but will have to prove their consistency. While Reaves deal looks overpaid on paper, the team opted to give him three years worth of money as long as he only signed for two years.

Read more

Dallas Stars Still Scouring Trade Market

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It has been a quiet off-season for trades to this point, with the last major deal being the St. Louis Blues’ acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly for a package of three players and two picks back on July 1st. It has also been close to a month since the Dallas Stars were named the front runners for superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson – or any legitimate Karlsson rumors for that matter. Yet, the Stars still remain active on the trade market, according to Dallas beat writer Mark Stepenski. Could they be the team that makes the next big trade?

Stepenski recently spoke with Stars GM Jim Nill about the off-season. While their discussion mostly centered on a Tyler Seguin extension, Martin Hanzal’s recovery progress, and the restricted free agency situations of Mattias Janmark and Gemel Smith, the two also talked about bringing in players not currently on the roster. Nill admitted that the team was still interested in making additions this summer, saying:

“I can’t name things, but there is still lots out there. We’re talking to teams. There is still a lot of movement happening within the business. I can’t say there is anything happening overnight, but there is a lot of dialogue still.”

The Stars are clearly interested in adding another big-name defenseman to add to defense that already sports John Klingberg and a now-healthy Marc Methot among others. Karlsson is obviously the top available defenseman, but the Ottawa Senators’ asking price was reportedly too high. The team could also look at the likes of Justin Faulk, Chris Tanev, or perhaps even disgruntled Jacob Trouba. However, the team actually performed better at preventing goals than they did scoring them last season. Despite impressive forward depth on paper, the Stars tied for 18th in the league in goals for and a scoring drought was one of the main factors behind the late-season collapse that cost them a playoff spot. While the team has already re-added Valeri Nichushkin and signed Blake Comeau and Erik Condra, it wouldn’t be surprise if the “lots out there” that Nill is looking into are forwards. Artemi Panarin, Max Pacioretty, Jeff Skinner, and Mathieu Perreault have all been considered likely to move at one point this summer and now New York Rangers’ center Kevin Hayes can be added to that list as well.

It does seem that Nill is right that there are a lot of talented players available and he is no doubt talking to teams, but the question remains whether he can actually put together a big trade to help his team this off-season. Dallas has more than $6MM in cap space and many intriguing young players and prospects. They certainly seems like a team that could make a splash at some point this summer.

Tampa Bay May Still Be Looking For More Defense

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With the current high demands from Ottawa in a possible Erik Karlsson trade making it less and less likely that anything will happen, the Tampa Bay Lightning must choose whether they should be content with their defense or need to find another fit.

On paper, the team seems more solid than most as the team boasts Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh to go with promising Mikhail Sergachev and a host of solid blueline depth, including Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Braydon Coburn, Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. Yet when looking a step further, their elite defensemen are all left-handed. Hedman, McDonaugh and Sergachev are all left-handed, leaving Stralman, Dotchin and Girardi on the right, which isn’t nearly as solid. While Sergachev has proven he can play on the right side, that isn’t ideal for the Lightning, which was another reason why the team was intent on adding the right-handed Karlsson.

In a mailbag segment, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) suggests the team needs to continue looking for a right-handed defenseman to even out both sides, suggesting the team should monitor the Jacob Trouba situation in Winnipeg since the stud defenseman refuses to sign a long-term deal with the Jets. Trouba, who received a one-year, $5.5MM deal from an arbitrator last week will have to go through the same process next year as he will be a restricted free agent again. If the two sides can’t reach long-term agreement then, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2020-21 and might force his way out of Winnipeg.

Another option, Smith writes, would be prying Justin Faulk away from the Carolina Hurricanes. The right-shot defenseman has two years remaining on his contract at $4.83MM AAV, but with the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan and the plethora of young defensive talent on the roster, including Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, the team is expected to move Faulk for more help in other areas.

One final option and perhaps the cheapest would be to trade for Vancouver Canucks’ Chris Tanev. The 28-year-old stay-at-home defender has been solid for the Canucks, but is being overpaid at $4.45MM for the next two seasons. The right-handed defenseman would be a reliable presence.

Regardless, the team needs to shake up their defense. Coburn and Girardi, who have played bigger roles in the past, are better off as third-pairing defenders, while Sergachev played the best hockey of his career during the playoffs, suggesting he’s likely going to move into the top-four. Dotchin and Koekkoek are also both likely going to fight for time in the top-six, so something needs to change.

 

Snapshots: Dallas Trades, Milano, Armia

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The Dallas Stars have been deep in talks with the Ottawa Senators for the right to trade for Erik Karlsson this offseason, although negotiations seems to have died down after Ottawa supposedly insisted on Dallas including top defensive prospect Miro Heiskanen in the deal. However, Dallas, who has been rather quiet this offseason looks to be still working the phones on adding talent through the trade market, according to NHL.com’s Mark Stepneski.

The scribe writes that general manager Jim Nill said in an interview that he is still talking to teams about potential trades.

“I can’t name things, but there is still lots out there,” Nill said. “We’re talking to teams. There is still a lot of movement happening within the business. I can’t say there is anything happening overnight, but there is a lot of dialogue still.”

Nill has said that he likes the team, which has added former first-rounder Valeri Nichushkin, Heiskanen, Blake Comeau and backup goaltender Anton Khudobin. However, with many big names still available in trades, it wouldn’t be surprising if Dallas was looking to make one more big move.

  • The Hockey Writers’ Mark Scheig writes that if the Columbus Blue Jackets must part with Artemi Panarin, the team will likely have to look in their own organization for a potential replacement player who can take that next step on offense for them — namely Sonny Milano. While a year ago, the fans were ready to move on from the prospect after two long years in Cleveland with the AHL, Milano is the team’s best left wing offensive talent who could step in and replace Panarin. However, the scribe writes that the problem is that his defense has been holding him back, but if Milano shows that he can improve on that aspect of his game, he might thrive in a top-six role. The 22-year-old averaged just 11:39 ATOI per game last year and still managed to score 14 goals. If he could find better minutes, he might be the breakout player many thought he would be years ago.
  • With a new team and new opportunities in front of him, NHL.com’s Matt Cudzinowski interviews Joel Armia, who was acquired by the Montreal Canadiens a month ago from the Winnipeg Jets. The 25-year-old Armia said while his goal is to always improve on the season before, he is concentrating his training on improving his speed.  “I’ve been working a lot more on my skating and speed,” Armia said. “I think that’s going to help me more and more on the ice. The game is getting faster every year, so skating and speed have been the main focus. I’m training with a couple of guys in Pori who play pro in Finland. I’ve also been working in Helsinki with Teuvo Teravainen and Esa Lindell, and a couple of young guys who’ve been drafted. In Helsinki, they have some good skating coaches. That’s where I go every other week to work. I’ll spend about three days there at a time. I also get my off-ice workout programs there and train in Pori.”

Atlantic Notes: Marner, Karlsson, Larkin

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While Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews acknowledged recently that discussions have started regarding a contract extension, there hasn’t been a similar note for winger Mitch Marner, who also is entering the final year of his entry-level deal.  Ken Campbell of The Hockey News argues that the 21-year-old may be wise to wait until next summer to work out a new deal instead of doing an early extension.

Marner has been quite productive through his first two NHL seasons, recording 61 points in his rookie campaign and 69 last year.  He managed to do so despite not spending a lot of time with Matthews which is also notable.  With Toronto adding top free agent center John Tavares this summer, there’s a good chance that Marner will play with either him or Matthews which could result in a nice jump in his point total.  If that’s the case, he can likely get a bigger contract next summer with a bit more leverage than he currently has now.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • There is nothing imminent on the trade front for the Lightning when it comes to Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson. Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) characterizes the discussions as not having got particularly close to a deal and adds that some feel that Ottawa isn’t in any rush to move him and are prepared to wait to get the price they want.  Of course, further complicating things is that Tampa Bay may have to involve a third team to offload enough payroll to take on Karlsson’s $6.5MM contract as the Sens aren’t expected to be willing to take significant salary back in return.
  • While the Red Wings have yet to lock up RFA center Dylan Larkin, the soon-to-be 22-year-old told NHL.com’s Nick Cotsonika that there are no major issues thus far in their contract negotiations. Larkin is coming off of a career year that saw him collect 63 points to lead the team in scoring and will likely be bypassing the bridge contract.  It was reported earlier this month that Detroit is looking to do a five-year contract here but that they may have to go to six to get something done.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part II

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third of the league; here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Detroit to Ottawa:

Detroit Red Wings: Frans Nielsen – four years, $21MM remaining

As speculated by some readers in the comments section, it was no mistake that Part I ended with Dallas. Detroit deserved both some extra consideration and to lead off an article about poor contracts. There is an argument to be made that almost every single player age 28 and over on the Red Wings roster is signed to a bad contract for one reason or another. Detroit is a team that ranks towards the bottom of the standings and towards the top of the salary cap and that is not just bad luck. However, some are much worse than others and they are so bad that it is tough to choose between them. Take this scenario: Player A scored 35 points in 75 games last season. It was 14 points more than the season prior, including six more goals, and Player A also led the team in hits. He is 31 years old and signed for five more years at $4.25MM per. Player B scored 33 points in 79 games last season. It was eight points less than the season prior, and Player B also had the worst face-off percentage among the team’s centers. He is 34 years old and signed for four more years at $5.25MM per. Still undecided about which contract the team would rather trade? Player A is a Michigan native and career Red Wing and Player B is entering only his third year after signing a lucrative free agent contract. Player A of course is perennial whipping boy Justin Abdelkader. Yes, the Abdelkader contract is terrible. At no point in his career has he been worth his current contract value. Yet, he improved last season, is younger and brings a defensive element to his game, and is also loyal to the current administration – the call of the question after all is which contract the team would most like to trade. That would instead be Player B, Frans Nielsen, who at 34 is predictably declining and last year made more than Abdelkader for less production and there is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue. The team rewarded Adbelkader for years of service, whereas they took a gamble on Nielsen that hasn’t paid off. One of those moves is far more regrettable. Nielsen is the guy, but he only narrowly edged out Abdelkader and defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who also has relative age and Detroit roots to his advantage.

Edmonton Oilers: Milan Lucic – five years, $30MM remaining

The Oilers can refute trade rumors surrounding Milan Lucic all they want. The truth of the matter is that GM Peter Chiarelli signed Lucic hoping that he could both produce with and protect Connor McDavid in Edmonton as he did for David Krejci in Boston. The only problem is that the 30-year-old power forward can no longer keep up with a player of McDavid’s caliber. Lucic managed to score 34 points last season, tied for fourth on the team, but that is nowhere near what is expected of a $6MM player, especially when he scored 50 in year one with the Oilers and topped that mark many times with the Bruins. Edmonton still may be holding out hope that Lucic can turn it around and be just as much of a scoring threat as he is a physical threat, but make no mistake that the team would be quick to get rid of his contract if the right deal came along. In contrast, the team would be far more hesitant to move a hefty contract like defenseman Andrej Sekera who has been good and injury-prone, rather than healthy and underwhelming.

Florida Panthers: Roberto Luongo – four years, $18.13MM remaining

Florida is a tough one. Dale Tallon has done a good job of locking up his core long-term and, despite being right up against the cap, there are few egregious contracts on the roster right now. Give it a few years and maybe Michael Matheson will hold this title, but for now it goes to Roberto Luongo by default. Of course, Luongo is beloved in Florida and the team doesn’t even have to carry the whole of his cap hit, with the Vancouver Canucks retaining $800K each year. However, the reality is that Luongo will turn 40 this season and it will be only the first of four years left on his deal. The Panthers have almost $8MM committed to two goalies for the next few years and the other, James Reimer, is younger and outplayed Luongo in 2016-17 and in more games to boot. While they both fought injuries this past season, it was Luongo back on top performance-wise, but the impressive numbers he did post came in just 35 appearances versus Reimer’s 44. Florida paying over $4.5MM per year to a backup goalie in his forties just doesn’t make sense and the team would be better off moving forward with just Reimer and Michael Hutchinson if they could find a way to trade Luongo. Another reason this contract is bad: both the Panthers and Canucks will be hit with cap recapture penalties if Luongo retires prior to 2022.

Los Angeles Kings: Dustin Brown – four years, $23.5MM remaining

For the first time in years, Kings fans are feeling good about Dustin Brown. That is why now is the perfect time to trade him. Brown had been the bane of L.A.’s existence for four years, registering no more than 36 points each year while eating up $5.875MM in cap space, when he finally broke out of his funk in 2017-18 with a massive 61-point season and one of the league’s best plus/minus ratings. The question now is whether the past four years were an aberration with this season setting a new baseline or will Brown regress back to his bottom-six production. With a cap-strapped roster full of expensive contracts for older players, L.A. can’t take the risk of keeping Brown around if the right opportunity presents itself. They would be forced to trade the career King if a taker came forward rather than hold out hope that he doesn’t revert back to his old ways of being drastically overpaid.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise – seven years, $52.77MM remaining

When the Wild signed 28-year-old’s Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to matching 13-year contracts worth almost $100MM apiece, they knew that those deals would have dark days at some point in the future. However, they never could have imagined that Parise’s decline would come so soon. Parise remains one of the most popular players on the team, but injuries have kept him off the ice and affected his play when on the ice over the ice and his stock is falling quickly. Parise has never been able to reach the peaks he enjoyed in New Jersey, but he still produced at a high level over his first four seasons with the team. The past two years have been a different story and Parise appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Now 33, Parise isn’t totally beyond help and could turn it around. If back at 100%, Parise has enough natural ability and enough talent around him to still be a $7.5MM player. However, it would be nearly impossible for Minnesota to ever move the behemoth that is his contract so, if somehow they received an offer, they would take it without a second thought. Fan favorite or not, there is too much risk associated with Parise moving forward.

Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber – seven years, $55MM remaining

I know what you’re thinking and yes, the Carey Price contract doesn’t look great right now. However, an extension of any length and value for any player coming off an injury-riddled season would bring a skewed perception. Price has been one of the best goalies in the league for years and one bad season doesn’t change that. Will he lose that title in the next eight years? For sure, but it would be a shock to see the Canadiens move their poster boy any time soon. Their #1 defenseman is another question though. When Montreal acquired Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, they never could have anticipated that his body would break down so soon after. Injuries cost Weber all but 26 games last season and he will miss the beginning of 2018-19 as well. Weber doesn’t seem like the type of player who will retire early, but there is no guarantee that these injuries won’t slow him down significantly for the remainder of his contract. In fact, the only guarantee is that he will slow down over the next seven years. At $7.86MM, the Canadiens need Weber to be his dynamic two-way self. The team already has one overpaid stay-at-home defenseman in Karl Alzner and can’t afford another. If they could move Weber, they would.

Nashville Predators: None

GM David Poile flat out doesn’t sign bad contracts. Criticize the deals for Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris if you like, but the bargain contracts throughout the rest of the lineup have allowed Poile to overpay for reliable centers and that is a team-building model that anyone can get behind.

New Jersey Devils: Corey Schneider – four years, $24MM remaining

The easy answer is that the Devils don’t feel any pressure to trade anyone on the roster. They currently have the lowest payroll in the league with nearly every player signed to a fair deal. Those who are overpriced – Travis Zajac and Andy Greene – play important leadership role and the only player signed to a substantially long-term deal is electric young blue liner Damon Severson. The one and only player that sticks out as a potential long-term cap problem is starting goaltender Corey Schneider. This may surprises some; after all Schneider trails only Tuukka Rask among active save percentage leaders. Schneider had been elite since arriving in New Jersey, but something started to change in 2016-17. His SV% fell to .908 and his GAA inflated to 2.82 and then things only got worse last season with a SV% of .907 and a GAA of 2.93. He was also limited to just 40 appearances this year and was outplayed by journeyman Keith Kinkaid. The Devils can’t count on Kinkaid to repeat his 2017-18 performance moving forward and if Schneider’s back-to-back bad years are more than a fluke, they can’t depend on him for four more years either. He’s not going to be a $6MM backup either. New Jersey will give Schneider the time he needs to return to form, but they may not hesitate if the right trade comes their way as well.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd – five years, $27.5MM remaining

The Islanders without John Tavares are a totally different animal. A six-year, $30MM extension for Josh Bailey now looks bad. A $5.75MM cap hit this season for free agents Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula signed to make up for Tavares’ lost production looks bad. The likes of Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Matt Martin now look worse on a team that needs more offense and less grit. However, the one contract that looked miserable well before Tavares bolted to Toronto is Andrew Ladd and it is only going to get much worse. The veteran forward was intended to find chemistry with Tavares when he was signed to a seven-year, $38.5MM contract two years ago. Instead, Ladd has just 60 points over the past two seasons combined and has by all accounts been relegated to a bottom-six role. The 32-year-old will now be asked to take a bigger role in Tavares’ stead and that is a scary proposition. The Islanders aren’t in any cap trouble, but the team should be thinking rebuild and would likely take any offer at all to rid themselves of Ladd.

New York Rangers: Brendan Smith – three years, $13.05MM remaining

Has any free agent contract in recent memory soured as quickly as Brendan Smith’s? Smith signed a four-year deal with the Rangers last June and was expected to play a top-four role for the team for years to come. By February, he had been placed on waivers and buried in the AHL. Smith played in only 44 games with New York and saw less and less ice time as the season wore on and he continued to turn the puck over at an alarming rate and cost his team goals. Now what? One would assume that Smith will be given a second chance this season, but the relationship between he and the team may be beyond repair. There is no doubt that the Rangers would take a re-do on that deal and would move him if possible. Marc Staal is another player that New York wouldn’t mind moving, but as a player who can eat minutes and provide solid play most of the time, his $5.7MM contract seems like nothing next to Smith’s $4.35MM deal.

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan – four years, $29MM remaining

No contract in the league has become as notorious for being labeled a “bad deal” that the team is desperate to trade like Bobby Ryan’s. The Senators are so determined to move on from Ryan that they are trying to force Erik Karlsson trade suitors to take the overpaid forward as well. At one point in time, $7.25MM per year for Ryan seemed like a fair deal. At 23 years old he was a 71-point player with the Anaheim Ducks and even after moving to Ottawa, Ryan started his tenure with three straight seasons in the 50-point range. However, the last two years have been very different. Ryan has only suited up for 62 games in each campaign and has looked like a different player on offense. At his best, he looks disinterested and lucky to be in the right place at the right time and at his worst he costs his team goals. Ryan has managed to register only 58 points combined over the past two years; he had 56 alone in 2015-16. Ryan may just need a change of scenery to jump start what used to be dynamic goal-scoring game, but the Senators don’t care about that. All he is to them is a waste of cap space and of owner Eugene Melnyk’s dwindling wealth. They want him gone at any cost.

Look out for Part III of this three-part series early next week…

 

Snapshots: Forsberg, Korn, Karlsson

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

When the Chicago Blackhawks went out and signed Cam Ward this offseason, it created a situation where the team has three goaltenders on one-way contracts. Corey Crawford, the expected starter, is working his way back from an upper-body injury (most likely a concussion) and is expected to be ready for the start of the year—though today admitted he still is “not 100 percent” yet. The team also has Anton Forsberg, acquired in last summer’s Artemi Panarin–Brandon Saad trade on a contract worth $750K at the NHL level.

Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times spoke with head coach Joel Quenneville at today’s Blackhawks Convention, who admitted they won’t be carrying three goaltenders. As Lazerus explains, that means Forsberg will likely be placed on waivers at some point before the start of the season, giving every other team a chance at the 25-year old goaltender. Forsberg posted a .908 save percentage last season but simply wasn’t good enough to carry the load after Crawford was ruled out, something that Ward will have to try should the starter experience any setbacks or new injuries this year.

  • Mitch Korn will be joining Barry Trotz with the New York Islanders this season, after being named Director of Goaltending for the organization yesterday. Korn has been with Trotz for years, including during his time with the Nashville Predators. He’s been credited with developing (or at least polishing) goaltenders like Pekka Rinne, Braden Holtby and even Dominik Hasek over the years, a feat he’ll have to try and repeat in New York. The Islanders do have talent in their crease, especially with newcomer Robin Lehner who has shown brilliance at times throughout his NHL career but can’t seem to find much consistency. Though Korn will certainly work with Lehner and Thomas Greiss this season, his real task will be developing young Linus Soderstrom and eventually Ilya Sorokin into the elite goaltenders many believe both to have the talent to become. S0rokin is already one of the best goaltenders in the KHL, and could likely already step directly into the NHL as a starter if the Islanders could convince him to come to North America.
  • Anyone worried about Erik Karlsson’s health this season after a recovering ankle caused his play to suffer in the first half of 2017-18 need not worry, as the Ottawa Senators captain told Chris Stevenson of The Athletic (subscription required) that he’s all healed up. Karlsson dubbed his ankle 110 percent, saying that “it shouldn’t be an issue for me whatsoever” in 2018-19. You can be sure that any interested teams are listening closely, as the massive package that would be required to land Karlsson in trade would only be worth it for his former self. The 28-year old Karlsson still recorded 62 points last season after a late-season surge, but clearly wasn’t himself early on. If he’s back to the Norris-caliber defenseman he’s been for much of his career, he’ll make almost any acquiring team a powerhouse immediately.

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