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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Projected Cap Hit: $76,853,780 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry Level Contracts

D Mikhail Sergachev (two years, $894K)
F Anthony Cirelli (two years, $728K)
F Brayden Point (one year, $687K)

Potential Bonuses:

Sergachev: $850K
Cirelli: $183K
Point: $183K

Total: $1.22MM

After a impressive rookie campaign, the Lightning knew they had a special player in Point, who proceeded to have a breakout year as the team’s second-line center. Point, who is good enough to be a No. 1 center, provided the team with a 32-goal, 66-point season. Now in his third year, Point could really walk away with a huge payday if he can equal or even better on that performance this year. Cirelli looks to have the third-line center spot locked down after the 21-year-old had a successful, but short stint, last season. He posted five goals and 11 points in 18 games last season and played in all 17 games of the playoffs, adding a pair of goals.

Sergachev has two years remaining on his contract and the 20-year-old defenseman had an up and down season, but still posted a nine-goal, 40-point season. He did have trouble getting regular minutes as the team often lost faith in his defensive play along with some immaturity issues. Regardless, the left-handed shot actually proved to head coach Jon Cooper that he can play on the right side, solving their depth issues on the right side. Sergachev should continue to develop his skills and also be in line for a big payday in two years.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry Level

D Anton Stralman ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM, UFA)
D Dan Girardi ($3MM, UFA)
F Yanni Gourde ($1MM, UFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($1MM, RFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($865K, RFA)
D Jake Dotchin ($813K, RFA)
F Adam Erne ($800K, RFA)
F Andy Andreoff ($678K, UFA)
F Cory Conacher ($650K, UFA)

For a team known for its defensive depth on its defense, it’s a little shocking to see that they only have three players signed after the 2018-19 season. Almost all of the team’s defense become free agents, restricted or otherwise, including Stralman, Coburn, Girardi, Koekkoek and Dotchin. With the team heavily laden in long-term deals, the team might be willing to allow Stralman, Coburn and Girardi to walk at the end of the year. All three are solid players, but there might not be any cap room to extend any of them, especially if the team has to give long-term deals to both Sergachev and Point. Stralman’s situation will be the most interesting as he’s a solid defenseman that complements his partner quite well and was the veteran who mentored Sergachev last season. Coburn and Girardi are likely expendable. Koekkoek and Dotchin will only be restricted free agents, but neither got a lot of playing time with the team, especially after the team added defensive talent at the trade deadline. However, both could play bigger roles this year, or within two years.

Another interesting decision the team will have to make is Gourde, who posted a breakout season in his first full season. The 26-year-old spent many years working on his game in the AHL before finally catching on with the Syracuse Crunch in 2014. From there he worked his way up before catching the team’s eye in training camp to win a spot. The result was a 25-goal, 64-point performance and now he has to prove he can duplicate that performance this season to get a big boost in his pay. For $1MM, Gourde may be the best bargain on the team, but he could get pricey quickly.Read more

Craig Anderson Content To Stay With Senators

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It wasn’t long ago that Craig Anderson had requested a trade out of Ottawa and the Senators were looking to oblige him. The well-liked and respected goalie was coming off of a difficult season that saw him post a .898 SV% and a 3.32 GAA as the starter for the second-worst team in the NHL last year.  He also had to keep his family in mind, as his wife – who had finally beaten her publicized battle with cancer – and kids still reside in Florida. Fast forward about eight weeks and the veteran goalie has changed his tune.

Whether it be due changes to those personal circumstances, a change of mind about his role in Ottawa, or simply due to lack of interest in the trade market, it seems that Anderson is okay with sticking around with the Senators. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun writes that Anderson is ready for a “fresh start” with the team. The 37-year-old still has two years remaining on his contract and now says he wants to stay in Ottawa and make the best of what are likely the twilight years of his career. Anderson was quoted as saying “Ottawa. I’ve been there for eight years now, and that’s my home. I’ve got no interest in going anywhere else”.

Ironically, Anderson mentioned that he was “too old for drama” when talking about wanting to make things right with the Senators and their fans. No team in the league, or perhaps all of sports, has been more embroiled in drama of late than Ottawa. Although the situation surrounding Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman, and their significant others – a situation that Anderson claims he was unaware of – has been resolved with Hoffman’s trade, there is still the matter of problematic owner Eugene Melnyk and a dwindling fan base who may watch their team finish dead last this season and potentially give away the first overall pick. The Senators are not short on controversy, and while Anderson might be talking about his own contentious relationship with the team due to his inconsistent pay and perceived poor value, he is not out of the woods yet when it comes to dealing with drama.

Contract Talks “At A Standstill” Between Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars

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Just over a month ago here on PHR we ran an article detailing the speculation and rumor that was bound to start surrounding Tyler Seguin as the year approached. The superstar center is heading into the final season of his current contract with the Dallas Stars and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2019. Like John Tavares last year, Seguin is a franchise-changing talent that could completely alter the free agent market if he decides to see what is available, and will be a story closely followed by the hockey world all season long. That interest crept to the surface today, when Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet tweeted that contract talks between the Stars and Seguin are “at a standstill and have been for quite some time.”

Kypreos compared the situation directly to the Tavares one, and that Seguin wants to sign a long-term deal, but speculation will surely follow the tweet. Even if the two sides haven’t spoken about an extension in some time, there is no reason to believe that means they won’t circle back in the near future and try to work something out. The team does have plenty of cap space moving forward as only Jamie Benn ($9.5MM) and Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM) carry real bank-breaking cap hits. John Klingberg, the team’s Norris-caliber defenseman is signed for four more seasons at just a $4.25MM cap hit while most of the rest of the roster are on short-term deals.

Interestingly though Kypreos also brought up the ongoing Erik Karlsson situation, and intimated that the team is still trying to acquire the Ottawa Senators captain. Dallas has been connected to Karlsson in the past, but were hesitant to include top prospect Miro Heiskanen in any trade. It seems likely that Karlsson will be traded to a team that has plans for a contract extension of his own, something that would certainly make fitting in Seguin more difficult. The Senators star is expected to be looking for similar terms to Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM extension.

Whether the Stars are involved with Karlsson talks or not, this sort of report is sure to become a near-daily occurrence until a decision is made on Seguin. If the team believes he might walk in free agency they could decide to trade him at some point, given the recent example of Tavares signing in Toronto without any compensation for the Islanders. That is months away from even being an option though, given that there hasn’t been any hint of unhappiness from the Seguin camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Erik Karlsson Refutes Report About Canadian Cities

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Yesterday, several reports surfaced that Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson did not want to sign an extension in a Canadian city and preferred to have his next deal take him to the United States. Today, the superstar defenseman wanted to clear the air and reached out to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman to refute the report. Karlsson told Friedman that the report saying he is “unwilling to sign long-term with a Canadian team” is false, but wouldn’t go any further. Karlsson has been extremely quiet on the whole situation this summer, waiting until training camp to address the media.

Teams looking to acquire Karlsson from the Senators this offseason are likely asking about a extension, given that the 28-year old is heading into the final season of his current contract and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in July of 2019. If Karlsson was truly against signing anywhere in Canada it would limit Senators GM Pierre Dorion’s options, though there’s no guarantee at this point that the defenseman is willing to sign anywhere. With Drew Doughty, Ryan Ellis, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Ryan McDonagh all off the market after signing extensions this summer, Karlsson could find himself as the lone big ticket defensemen available in free agency.

That idea of picking your destination must be tempting, especially when you then know your new team isn’t wasting a pile of future assets to acquire you. Signing in free agency leaves the roster of a new team relatively in tact, something that no one would be able to say after trading for Karlsson. The Senators are surely looking for an enormous package in return for the face of their franchise, including roster pieces and prospects. An agreement like that is obviously affected by whether or not Karlsson is willing to sign long-term, or if Bobby Ryan is indeed strapped to him as a salary dump for the Senators.

For all the speculation that has surrounded Karlsson the last few months, the Senators captain has never said an ill word about the city of Ottawa. He and his wife live in the city and have strong ties to the community, and will likely continue to do so regardless of where he plays in 2018-19. While it doesn’t seem like a long-term extension is coming with the Senators after negotiations halted earlier this offseason, Karlsson has made it clear that he is not staunchly against playing in Canada.

The Vancouver Canucks were the Canadian team most recently linked to the Karlsson trade talks, though almost immediately came out to say they were not actively involved. Other teams that could certainly use the right-handed offensive defenseman include the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens, though it’s not clear if any have even approached the Senators about a potential trade. Karlsson does also hold a 10-team no-trade list, meaning he has at least some control over who the Senators talk to.

Latest On Erik Karlsson Trade Rumors

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After Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet threw a match into the puddle of gasoline that is an Erik Karlsson trade rumor yesterday, speculation has ran wild about where the Ottawa Senators captain will start the season. Friedman was on NHL Network recently, and reiterated that he believes the Senators are ready to move on.

A few years ago Dany Heatley showed up on the first day of camp with the Senators, and the Senators were like “can we fix this?” and they realized they couldn’t. They made the [Heatley] trade right away with San Jose. I think they’ve just decided they don’t want to carry [the Karlsson situation] into the season if they can avoid it.

Karlsson has been in the news for some time, given that the Senators haven’t been able to reach an extension with their superstar defenseman. The 28-year old is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, leave the team with little choice but to trade him for future assets if he’s not willing to sign long-term with the club. There had been talk about Karlsson potentially discussing an extension with interested teams, which would obviously increase the value of the return for the Senators, but now there may be a hitch in those talks. Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest tweets that Karlsson does not want to sign an extension with a Canadian team, which could potentially take teams like the Vancouver Canucks—who were mentioned by Friedman yesterday, but quickly denied their involvement—out of the running.

There’s no guarantee that Karlsson wants to sign an extension with anyone at present, given that he could be the big fish on the open market next summer. Now that Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis and Ryan McDonagh have all signed long-term deals, Karlsson projects to be the one real star defenseman available in free agency. At that point he could essentially choose his destination, as one would have to believe that almost the entire league would express some interest in him as a UFA.

For now, we’ll have to wait and see who rises as the front runner for a Karlsson trade and whether a Canadian team can wiggle their way into extension talks. The star defenseman has always spoken highly of his love for the city of Ottawa, but it doesn’t appear at this point like he’ll be spending the next portion of his career there.

Snapshots: Canucks, Chimera, Amorosa

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While the Canucks were a team that was surprisingly linked to Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson earlier this morning, GM Jim Benning told Sportsnet’s John Shannon (Twitter link) that the team is not involved in discussions for the Ottawa blueliner.  Given that Vancouver appears to be heading into at least a soft rebuild, giving up considerable assets for the pending unrestricted free agent would seem to be somewhat counterproductive.  However, with more than $9MM in cap room at the moment (per CapFriendly), Vancouver would make some sense as a potential fit to get involved as a third party facilitator if someone needs to clear some short-term cap room or retain on Karlsson’s deal before flipping him, similar to what Vegas did with Derick Brassard last season.

Other notes from around the league:

  • While this is the time of the offseason where veteran free agents typically have to take a tryout agreement to go to training camp, winger Jason Chimera told Postmedia’s Jim Matheson (Twitter link) that he’s unsure if he’d be willing to take a PTO. The 39-year-old is still a strong skater but saw his production drop considerably last season as he went from 20 goals and 33 points to just three and ten respectively.  At this stage coupled with his struggles last season, it may be tough for him to land a guaranteed one-way pact so unless he’s open to the idea of a tryout, he will likely be on the outside looking in when the puck drops in October.
  • UFA defenseman Terrance Amorosa has signed a one-year deal with San Diego of the AHL, affiliate of the Ducks, the minor league team announced. The former fifth-rounder of the Flyers became a free agent last week after failing to sign with Philadelphia and was one of the top players available in this free agent class.

Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Picking Up

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After the last few weeks have brought little in terms of trade speculation around the NHL, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has sparked the fire again surrounding Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators. Friedman tweets that trade talks involving the superstar defenseman have picked up recently, with Western Conference destinations—potentially including the Vancouver Canucks—as the most likely. West teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars had previously been linked to Karlsson, though it’s unclear if they’re included in the recent discussions.

For Vancouver the acquisition of Karlsson would seem unlikely, given that the team is still rebuilding and there is no guarantee that the Senators defenseman would be open to an extension. Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet tweets that Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson are all completely off the table for the Canucks, making it hard to imagine a package strong enough to beat any other contender for Karlsson’s services. Interestingly MacIntyre does not mention top prospect Olli Juolevi, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he would be available.

There are obviously dozens of other teams in the NHL who would be interested in Karlsson, though many of them won’t be able to afford an extension that could push towards Drew Doughty’s eight-year $88MM contract. Ottawa would likely receive the biggest return from a team that can immediately extend Karlsson, but that could also dramatically reduce their trading partners. The Golden Knights have the prospect capital and cap space to fit a star like Karlsson in, and the Colorado Avalanche have a trade chip that no one else in the league can match. That’s the Senators own first-round pick this season, acquired in the Matt Duchene trade from last season. After Ottawa chose to keep their 2018 pick and select Brady Tkachuk, they had to give up the 2019 pick and a potential opportunity at top prospect Jack Hughes. With the Senators expected to struggle this season—especially if Karlsson departs—the Avalanche could easily be holding a top-three pick in their pocket. For what it’s worth, Adrian Dater of BSN Denver isn’t hearing any connection with the Avalanche and Karlsson.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were the other team strongly linked to Karlsson in the past, and it’s unclear if they still pose a threat to acquire the defenseman. That would require Tampa Bay moving out other salary, but would make them an absolute powerhouse in the Eastern Conference and the favorite for a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. All of the other teams in the Atlantic Division will be hoping that the Senators’ captain heads out west and signs a long-term contract to stay out of their way.

What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?

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Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.

Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.

The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.

So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.

The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.

 

Atlantic Notes: Senators’ Youth, Walker, Howard, Nelson

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The Ottawa Senators seem to have little go right over the last year or so, whether it was the unhappiness of their star defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Matt Duchene trade in which the team traded away their No. 1 overall pick for next season to Colorado. With the team shipping off players left and right, that pick could be a costly one for the team.

However, the Ottawa Sun’s Ken Warren writes that who the Senators need to look at the success of the New Jersey Devils last season had when they opted to add a struggling team with youth. Just a season ago, the Devils had a 28-40-14 season and just 70 points. However, New Jersey brought in an infusion of youth, including Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Will Butcher, as well as second-year players like Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha. That group altered the makeup of the struggling franchise and turned last season into a 44-29-9 season for 97 points, an increase of 27 points on the year. The team even qualified for the playoffs.

The Senators, who are actually loaded with quality prospects within their system, could get a similar infusion from their prospects. That possibility might start with 2018 first-rounder Brady Tkachuk, who opted to turn pro last week and has a chance to walk right into the Senators lineup. The team has other young players who are ready for full seasons this year, including Colin White, Logan Brown, Thomas Chabot, Filip Chlapik and Drake Batherson. The team also has last year’s second-round pick Alex Formenton, who made the Senators squad out of training camp last year, who could also make the jump this year. Some success from some of those kids could make people forget a little about some of the franchise’s struggles.

  • Former Toronto Maple Leafs enforcer Kurt Walker passed away Friday night at the age of 64 after a brief illness, according to the Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornby. Walker, who might have been better known after his short NHL career, was an advocate for retired NHL players. His efforts nearly a decade ago helped retired players and opened doors for affordable health care, concussion research on NHL retired players and stem-cell research. Walker played three seasons in the NHL, all for the Maple Leafs, playing in 71 games, tallying four goals, five assists and 152 penalty minutes.
  • Mlive’s Ansar Khan writes that the Detroit Red Wings need a solid year out of 34-year-old goaltender Jimmy Howard, who has one year remaining on his contract. Howard started the 2017-18 season strong, but struggled in the second-half of the season, finishing the year with a 2.85 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 60 games. The team may have to lighten his workload now that the team added Jonathan Bernier, but if Howard will have to have a better year to earn another contract with the team. Khan writes the team might want to give him a two-year extension as they lack goalie prospects in their system.
  • The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington writes that Buffalo Sabres defensive prospect Casey Nelson has a good chance at breaking camp with the Sabres this year because he now requires Buffalo to pass him through waivers to send him to the AHL. Nelson, has played 55 games for Buffalo over the past three years and showed some promise last year, putting up three goals and eight assists in 37 games. However, because the team could conceivably lose him if they attempt to pass him through waivers, they may be more likely to hold onto him and send other prospects like Brendan Guhle to the AHL since he doesn’t require waivers.

Silence Surrounds Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

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At one point this summer the biggest story on almost a daily basis was the future of Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson, but since trade talks seemed to have broken down there have been almost no reports to update his status. Brent Wallace of TSN says it has been “eerily quiet” in Ottawa regarding Karlsson, and doesn’t believe that will change until he addresses the media at the start of training camp. Karlsson is still under contract with the Senators, but after the team reportedly offered a long-term extension in early July there has been very little talk about any potential negotiations between the two sides.

We’ve seen a situation extremely similar to this play out recently, ultimately ending in the Senators themselves acquiring Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche just a few weeks into the 2017-18 season. Duchene basically avoided speaking to the media entirely during training camp, not willing to feed into the speculation around whether he was unhappy in Colorado and had requested a trade. A similar thing might be happening with Karlsson, who has given no indication that he would hold out from camp to demand a trade, or in fact has even asked for a trade at all. The Senators obviously will have to continue contemplating that option if the two sides aren’t progressing in extension negotiations, given their expected struggles this season and Karlsson’s immense value as a trade asset.

Senators training camp opens in just under a month’s time, at which point we should start to get at least some answers from the team on whether Karlsson is expected to start the year on the roster. While the hockey world has seemingly taken a bit of a vacation in early August, things will begin heating up quickly as the calendar turns and the start of the season creeps closer. Not only will teams be able to evaluate their roster by seeing them first hand on the ice, but injuries to key players could always create a potential trade candidate where one didn’t appear before.

Karlsson remains the biggest fish on the trade market, and actually saw another one of his free agent contemporaries scratch their name off the UFA list for next summer. When Ryan Ellis inked his eight-year, $50MM contract extension today it marked the fourth big-name defenseman scheduled for 2019 free agency to sign a long-term contract. Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Ryan McDonagh have already been locked in, meaning Karlsson could find himself as the unchallenged king of the unrestricted free agent market—at least among defensemen— on July 1st.

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