NHL Comparables For Top Draft Propects
While free agency and trades tend to grab most of the offseason headlines, the annual entry draft is generally far more important to NHL teams. Controllable young talent is the life blood of any successful organization and the best way to secure that talent is through the draft. While this year’s draft crop perhaps lacks the “generational” type of player that we’ve seen in each of the two previous years (Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews), there is no shortage of young players who will be selected this June who will go on to have successful NHL careers.
A common approach when discussing 17 and 18-year-old draft prospects is to compare their potential upsides to those of present day or past NHL stars. Sidney Crosby was often compared to a young Wayne Gretzky, not solely due to possessing similar, elite offensive abilities, but also because he exuded the traits of a player that could be one of the game’s great ambassadors. McDavid, in turn was compared to a young Crosby for many of those same reasons.
In an interesting piece appearing on NHL.com, Mike Morreale takes a stab at comparing a handful of the top 2017 draft prospects to some of the day’s top NHL stars using analysis from NHL Central Scouting. Among them is potential #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick, who the scribe compares to Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, citing the former’s hockey sense and vision as the youngster’s best assets. Like the 6-foot-3, 224-pound Kopitar, Patrick has great size (6-foot-3, 198-pounds) and according to Central Scouting, his “playmaking ability with the size and reach is tremendous.”
If Patrick is not chosen first overall then that honor may well go to Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads. Morreale cites Washington pivot Nicklas Backstrom as Hischier’s possible NHL comparable, identifying the latter’s hockey sense and skating ability as his top attributes. Central Scouting says “he plays a complete game but is very good offensively.”
Other prospects to make an appearance are Gabriel Vilardi and Owen Tippett, from Windsor and Mississauga of the OHL respectively, as well as USHL stars Casey Mittelstadt and Kevin Petruzzelli.
While it’s natural to project young players into some of the stars of today’s game, it’s important to note that these comparisons essentially represent the bast case scenarios for each of the prospect’s in their long term development. The words prospect and suspect are sometimes used interchangeably, reminding us that no matter how talented the prospect may be, any number of factors can prevent him from reaching his full potential. Every team hopes their top draft pick turns into a Crosby, Backstrom or Kopitar but the possibility remains that instead they end up with the next Patrik Stefan, Rostislav Klesla or Pavel Vorobiev. That same fate could befall any, or all of 2017’s top draft prospects.
Atlantic Division Notes: Sabres, Johnson, Johansson
Despite being separated by just 100 miles geographically, the difference in success between the respective roster rebuilds in Toronto and Buffalo is much greater. While Toronto is closing in on a potential playoff berth, the Sabres appear set to miss the postseason dance for the sixth straight season. The Score’s Craig Hagerman lists three reasons Buffalo’s rebuild has not been as successful as the Maple Leafs.
First, Hagerman argues, once the team landed top draft prospect Jack Eichel the Sabres overextended themselves by dealing precious young assets to acquire veteran forwards Ryan O’Reilly and Jamie McGinn from Colorado. Buffalo dealt two former first-round draft picks, Nikita Zadorov and Mikhail Grigorenko, along with prospect J.T. Compher and the 31st choice in the 2015 draft to get O’Reilly and McGinn. Given Grigorenko’s and Zadorov’s struggles in two seasons with Colorado versus O’Reilly’s solid play for Buffalo, it’s fair to debate that the Sabres have so far come out ahead in that swap. While a case can be made the O’Reilly has been a good fit for the Sabres, able to take the tougher assignments and freeing up Eichel to see inferior competition, ultimately Hagerman believes a rebuilding team should hoard it’s young assets further into the process.
The scribe also credits Toronto for ridding themselves of their most onerous longtime commitments, finding takers for the expensive contracts of Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel and Jonathan Bernier, while at the same time bringing in young talent to augment their rebuild. Buffalo, on the other hand, has four players – Evander Kane, Matt Moulson, Zach Bogosian and Tyler Ennis – that account for roughly $40MM against the salary cap at least through the 2017-18 campaign. Finally, Hagerman points out that the Leafs are getting more production from their young players than Buffalo is. Toronto has Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Auston Matthews, all of whom have either reached or are on a 60-point pace as rookies. Buffalo has Eichel, who has been excellent, but beyond that their top picks in recent drafts, players like Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen, have yet to fulfill their full potential. That’s not to say they won’t, only that Toronto’s top prospects are maturing at a quicker clip helping to advance their rebuild at a faster pace than Buffalo’s.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- While team captain Steven Stamkos is progressing in his rehab from a knee injury and may be nearing a return to the ice, fellow center Tyler Johnson is no closer to resuming his 2016-17 campaign, according to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. As Smith writes, the 26-year-old Johnson hasn’t even begun skating on his own, lessening the likelihood that he will return during the regular season. Johnson, who has struggled to duplicate his breakout performance in 2014-15 when he tallied 72 points, has registered just 19 goals and 44 points in 64 appearances this season. The Lightning have a decision to make as Johnson will be a RFA this summer and will undoubtedly command a sizable raise despite his decreased production the last couple of years.
- According to Cap Friendly, via Twitter, the NHL has rejected the ELC contract signed yesterday by Swedish defense prospect Emil Johansson with the Boston Bruins due to “an issue with payment structure.” Johansson was Boston’s seventh-round selection in the 2014 entry draft and is having a solid season with Djurgardens of the Swedish League, ranking second among the club’s blue liners in scoring. It’s likely just a minor setback requiring the two sides to restructure the agreement before re-filing it with the league.
Maple Leafs Notes: Matthews, Playoff Picture, Trades, Marlies
Jonathan Toews was very complimentary of Auston Matthews before their two teams face off this evening.
While Matthews grew up idolizing Toews and models his game after him, the Blackhawks captain drew comparisons between the Maple Leafs rookie and players like Evgeni Malkin and Patrick Kane.
“He’s wasted no time,” Toews said of Matthews. “You kind of wonder, if that’s how he comes out of the gate then what’s he going to be like in a couple of years?”
Matthews has 31 goals and 55 points in 69 games as a rookie, while Toews has 18 goals and 50 points in 61 games. Matthews has now passed Toews’ rookie totals by one point; Toews had 54 points in 64 games back in 2007-08.
- With the Islanders picking up a point in an overtime loss on Saturday afternoon, they tied the Maple Leafs with 78 points. Toronto remains in the final wildcard spot due to fewer games played. The Maple Leafs are four points behind the Bruins for third in the Atlantic, and one point up on the Lightning in the wildcard race. With the New York Rangers pretty much guaranteed the first wildcard spot, only one of the Leafs, Islanders, and Lightning will be able to snag the other spot. Toronto can do themselves a big favor by beating the Blackhawks tonight.
- Speaking of Chicago and Toronto, Sportsnet’s Steve Dangle broke down the last six trades made between the two teams. The final list of players acquired isn’t pretty from the Maple Leafs angle. Of the nine pieces acquired by Toronto, only Josh Leivo is still with the team, and he’s a regular in the press box despite having nine points in 12 games. On the other side, the Blackhawks have Artem Anisimov and Richard Panik on their roster, several prospects/ minor-leaguers, and three late draft picks still to come. Dangle points out that Chicago has consistently traded NHLers for cheap depth players over the course of their semi-dynasty, and Toronto has had an excess of those players.
- It was not a great afternoon for the Toronto Maple Leafs’ farm team. The Marlies were up 4-1 on the Binghamton Senators heading into the third period. The Senators scored seven straight goals to win 8-4. Marlies goaltender Antoine Bibeau allowed seven goals on 33 shots for a 0.787 SV%.
Snapshots: Pronger, Goldobin, Aaltonen
When Chris Pronger was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2015, it marked the end of an outstanding career. Stanley Cup winner, Hart trophy winner, Norris trophy winner, All-Star. Everything was accomplished, and yet something remained—a contract. Pronger was then, and still is now under a player contract with an NHL team, and though he’ll never play a game for the Arizona Coyotes—who traded for his empty contract just days before the Hall of Fame induction ceremony—he was technically a part of their organization. His deal will expire at the end of this season, and there is now something else on his mind for the future.
Pierre LeBrun of TSN writes in his latest column that though Pronger is happy with his current position at the Department of Player Safety, he’d like a chance to apprentice under an established GM in hopes of one day running a team of his own. Pronger reached out to former rival Steve Yzerman to learn what he could about the Tampa Bay Lightning GM’s path to the front office, which included time under Ken Holland in Detroit. Though he had all the physical tools to make him great in the game, it was his hockey mind that made him a legend. As former teammate Jamie McLennan put it in LeBrun’s piece: “His ability to adapt and learn in any situation is what makes [him] special.” Don’t be surprised to see Pronger’s name pop up in a front office as soon as next season.
- It wasn’t just a regular flu for Vancouver Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin. The young player says that he didn’t eat for five days and has lost fifteen pounds while he’s been out. While he is feeling better, he won’t travel to Edmonton with the team when they take on the Oilers tomorrow night. Instead, he’ll hit the practice rink and try to get back to where he was before falling ill. The 21-year old was acquired in exchange for Jannik Hansen at the trade deadline, and scored a single goal in the three games he played for Vancouver before being kept out of the lineup.
- James Mirtle of the Athletic provides some context for the Maple Leafs newest signing Miro Aaltonen. One source told him that the Finnish forward has a 50-50 shot to play in the NHL, but represents no downside for the team. He’ll be on just a one-year deal, and will play for the Marlies next season if he doesn’t crack the NHL team out of camp. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet adds that Aaltonen is most comfortable on the left wing, an area of need for the Maple Leafs. The team currently only has James van Riemsdyk as a true goal-scoring left winger, with the other three, Zach Hyman, Leo Komarov and Matt Martin, all being better suited to play in the bottom-half of a lineup (despite the fact that Hyman has played on Auston Matthews‘ wing all season). Even in the minor leagues Kasperi Kapanen and Brendan Leipsic, the prospects closest to making an NHL impact both play the right side most often.
Snapshots: Outdoor Game, Fedun, Bonuses
After a report yesterday that the 2018 Winter Classic would be played at Citi Field in New York, there is some more news about outdoor games next season. Tomorrow, according to a report from Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen, the NHL will announce a game between the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens that will take place at TD Place, the home of the Canadian Football League’s Ottawa Redblacks. The stadium, which sits in Lansdowne Park right along the Rideau Canal, will host the CFL’s Grey Cup just a few weeks prior and will have expanded seating still installed.
This would be the Senators first time hosting an outdoor game, and just their second appearance in one. In 2014, they were part of the Heritage Classic in Vancouver (where the Sens won 4-2) but will obviously welcome a chance to host their own. Honoring the first NHL game played in Ottawa on December 19th, 1917—when the original Ottawa Senators were in existence—the game is expected to be played around the same date. It will be Montreal’s fourth appearance as a visitor in an outdoor game, though they’ve never hosted one themselves.
- As rumored yesterday, the Buffalo Sabres have brought up Taylor Fedun from the AHL today prior to their game in Los Angeles. The team is in the middle of a four-game rad trip, and will not have Justin Falk in the lineup tonight or tomorrow against the Anaheim Ducks. Fedun has 25 games with the NHL club this season, recording seven points. A prolific point producer at the AHL level, Fedun has just 37 games under his belt in the NHL and has never been able to find a consistent role.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have used their cap space over the past two years as something of an asset, acquiring bad contracts and burying them in the minors in order to get better returns on transactions. Brooks Laich, Milan Michalek and Colin Greening were all examples of this, and they now find themselves right up against the cap. As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet writes, that may end up costing them at least a few million next season as the bonuses for their young players will be taken as a penalty. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Nikita Zaitsev will all likely max out their Schedule A bonuses this season, and Matthew may trigger a $2MM Schedule B if he finishes in the top 10 for goals. If they decide to be big players in free agency, that Matthews bonus could be a big factor.
East Notes: Hyman, Tynan, Eichel
The Toronto Maple Leafs have outplayed all of the preseason expectations of the club, and much of that has to do with the excellent performance of Auston Matthews in his rookie season. The first-overall pick has become an impact player right away with 55 points in 64 games, despite spending the whole season skating alongside fellow youngster Zach Hyman. When the team was winning, everything seemed fine with that arrangement but now that they’ve lost five straight people are starting to call for some more experienced wingers to be put with Matthews.
Craig Button of TSN thinks (video link) that’s “laughable” though, as he details the amount of room Hyman creates with his forechecking ability and unstoppable energy level. Hyman has just 25 points all season, and is one of the most divisive players in Toronto at the moment. While he obviously works as hard as any player in the league, some question his offensive upside and whether he can be an option long-term on Toronto’s top line. For now, the team looks like they’ve moved William Nylander away from that group and back to the wing of Nazem Kadri to try and spark some offense (via Kristen Shilton of TSN).
- The Columbus Blue Jackets have recalled T.J. Tynan from the AHL on emergency conditions after Josh Anderson was given a 7-10 day timeline for his knee injury. Tynan was up just a few days ago but still has yet to make his NHL debut with the Blue Jackets. The undersized winger is an excellent passer and has 30 points in 55 AHL games this season. The Blue Jackets have a rematch with the New Jersey Devils tomorrow night, after defeating them 3-0 on Sunday evening.
- Jack Eichel has been the oft-forgotten member of the exceptional 20 and under club this season because of the injury that held him out of 21 games to start the season. The young Sabres forward is here to remind you of his talent though, with 42 points in 45 games and a shot at passing his full-season mark of 56 last year. Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News writes that greatness isn’t far off for Eichel when it comes to the NHL, and that he expects him to play a big role at the World Championships this spring if the Sabres do in fact miss the playoffs. If he’s healthy next year, Eichel could easily push to be crowned among the best young players in the game. He’s just scratching the surface of his offensive potential.
Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?
FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?
Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.
Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.
It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.
2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.
Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.
A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.
Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.
Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5
While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.
There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.
5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)
The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.
With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.
It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.
Snapshots: Maple Leafs, Sobotka, Spooner
The Toronto Maple Leafs made their intentions clear this season as they added playoff-tested Brian Boyle to the mix for their playoff push. Not expected to compete for the Atlantic crown this year they find themselves just seven points back of Montreal with two games in hand. Kristen Shilton of TSN spoke to Mike Babcock about the addition, and he said the team deserves this. “We’re excited. Lou thought our group had earned the right for us to help them,” Babcock said, before indicating that Boyle will play tonight on the fourth line and help out both special teams.
TSN’s Bob McKenzie thinks that it’s not just Boyle that the Maple Leafs are after, and that they may use their LTIR space to facilitate other deals. The Leafs have a lot of cap space because of the dead contracts they’ve taken on over the past few years, and could use it to gather assets from teams looking to add at the deadline. They have to be careful though, as the bonuses that Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander (among others) are owed on their entry-level contracts cannot be covered by the LTIR space and would count as penalties next season should they put them over the cap.
- McKenzie also detailed the possibility of Vladimir Sobotka turning heads at some point tomorrow, as the Omsk Avangard winger is nearing the end of his KHL contract. It’s not clear if Sobotka would consider coming over after his season ends, but would be playoff eligible. Lou Korac of NHL.com asked Blues GM Doug Armstrong about the possibility, who responded: “Once he gets on our soil, then I’ll talk about him.” The 29-year old Sobotka has been a pain in Armstrong’s side for a long time.
- In a new column from Joe Haggerty of CSNNE, Ryan Spooner spoke out against his former coach Claude Julien and the tense relationship the two shared. Spooner claims that Julien “just didn’t really trust [him]”, and that the two never saw eye to eye on his play style. Spooner has 33 points in 61 games and is well on his way to another 40+ point season before he’s 26. If he’s not dealt in the next few months, he’ll be looking for a big upgrade in the summer on the $950K he’s currently earning.
When Will The Buffalo Sabres Have Their Renaissance?
For Buffalo Sabres fans this season must be hell. They have seen their team rocked by injuries all season long, taking what is a talented squad and sapping them of their playoff potential. The consecutive losses over the weekend to bottom-dwelling Arizona and Colorado has all but assured that they are sellers at this week’s trade deadline instead of buyers.
The Sabres weren’t sellers last summer, when they went out and gave a big contract to Kyle Okposo and traded for Dmitry Kulikov to help their back end. They were a young team with a ton of potential, and decided to augment it with talented veterans. While Okposo was the team’s all-star representative, his scoring touch hasn’t been enough to help them out of the bottom of the Eastern conference. 
Meanwhile, they have to watch the Edmonton Oilers and (even more painfully) Toronto Maple Leafs experience huge gains from teenagers, turning into legitimate playoff contenders overnight. The teams that they’ve battled with for first overall picks are now surging to the top of the standings. Edmonton won a lottery that Buffalo had worked so hard for to get Connor McDavid, and Toronto tanked for Auston Matthews while the Sabres tried to compete a year ago.
But it’s not just the past two years that should have been building blocks for the Sabres. Like the Oilers, they’ve long had picks to help build a system—that just haven’t seemed to come together as a team. Since 2011 the Sabres have had eight picks in the top-16 of the draft, including four top-eights (Alex Nylander, Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen).
If you look at their track record, it’s actually quite good in these spots with all of them looking like solid if not excellent NHL players. So why hasn’t it come together for them yet? Is it just the injuries? Perhaps, but even the players who have been relatively healthy haven’t performed up to standards.
Ryan O’Reilly, he of the highest cap-hit on the team, has just 38 points in 52 games and hasn’t yet turned into the dominating elite centerman the Sabres had hoped for. Okposo has 39 and looks like he’ll end with his lowest total since the last lockout. Matt Moulson and Brian Gionta have shown their age and turned in a bottom-six production, and Marcus Foligno might not hit double-digits in goals this season.
So when will they experience their renaissance, like the Oilers and Leafs? Will it happen next season, when Eichel is healthy enough to lead their team all season, or are they doomed to sit in mediocrity while they pay off the long-term deals they’ve given to some of these veteran players. Fans should be wary of asking for any other high-priced additions this summer, and instead just rely on the internal development of all these highly drafted players. It looks like the Sabres will add another top pick to the stable this offseason, as long as they don’t do anything too crazy at the deadline.
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