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Trade Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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We are now just two weeks away from the NHL Trade Deadline and talks are heating up. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders, perpetual underdogs, are again delivering an excellent season. Picked by many before the season to miss the playoffs in a loaded East Division, the Islanders have outplayed their competitors for much of the season. A top-five team in goals against average and shots against per game, the Isles have again bought in to head coach Barry Trotz’ conservative, smothering style and are frustrating opponents left and right.

With that said, New York does not have a top-class offense, and that was even before the season-ending injury to captain Anders Lee. The Islanders are just a middle-of-the pack team in terms of scoring and are below average on the power play. As a side effect of the system, they do not put a lot of shots on net and have few odd-man rushes. Simply, they need to make their scoring chances count and without Lee that becomes more difficult. The Islanders have won just five of their past nine games since their leading goal-scorer went down and have slipped into a tie with the Pittsburgh Penguins in second in the division. In terms of points percentage, New York is closer to the Boston Bruins in fourth (who have many more game in hand) than they are to the Washington Capitals in first. The Islanders are unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture completely, but to stay near the top they desperately need to add offense.

Record

22-10-4, .667, T-2nd in East Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR, $6.53MM unused), 0/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NYI 1st, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2022: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, COL 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

Like many contenders, the Islanders don’t have the strongest pipeline to lean on. However, likely looking to add just one rental forward in a buyer’s market, they shouldn’t have to offer up any of their few elite prospects to get the job done. So fear not Isles fans, Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson aren’t going anywhere.

Kieffer Bellows is likely the name that will be heard most often as being linked to outgoing Islanders’ packages. A polarizing, but promising prospect, Bellows hasn’t found the success in the NHL that was expected of a first-round pick and World Juniors standout, but he could benefit from playing in a different system. The 22-year-old may very well be selected by the Seattle Kraken in this summer’s Expansion Draft if he is still on the roster and not protected, so the Islanders might be looking to deal him rather than risk losing him for nothing.

The Islanders also have an organization depth chart chock full of young defenseman that they could offer up in a deadline deal. Bode Wilde will be the player most suitors ask about, but the team will try to steer them away from the talented righty. Sebastian Aho and Grant Hutton are NHL-ready assets who don’t necessarily have a full-time spot waiting for them in New York next season, making them expendable, while Robin Salo and Samuel Bolduc are younger options with intriguing upside.

Others to Watch For: F Ross Johnston ($1MM, 2022 UFA), F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA), F Otto Koivula ($787K, RFA), D Parker Wotherspoon ($725K, 2022 RFA), G Jakub Skarek ($764K, 2023 RFA)

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger – GM Lou Lamoriello will have his sights set on one thing and one thing only at the deadline: a Lee replacement. While the captain’s locker room leadership and even his two-way effort and IQ likely cannot be found on the market, the Islanders need to find someone who can take up his knack for scoring goals. The team relies on efficiency on offense and are now missing their most reliable scorer. They are solid down the middle and have plenty of other talented wingers, but no one who isn’t already playing in the top-six can reliably fill Lee’s shoes. With up to $7MM in cap space to use with Lee on Long-Term Injured Reserve, nearly any rental winger can fit under the cap. Buffalo’s Taylor Hall, the lone exception, could be had with some retention involved, but New Jersey’s Kyle Palmieri or Nashville’s Mikael Granlund would fit nicely under the cap. If the Islanders can’t manage to land one of those top options, dark horse candidates could include Chicago’s Mattias Janmark, who is scoring goals at a torrid clip this year, Vancouver’s Tanner Pearson, if healthy, or another New Jersey option, Nikita Gusev. 

2) Goaltender – Being the shrewd veteran executive that he is, don’t be surprised to see Lamoriello look at solving an Expansion crisis ahead of the deadline as well. With young Ilya Sorokin exempt from the draft and Cory Schneider headed for free agency, the Islanders do not currently have the necessary goalie to expose to Seattle assuming they protect starter Semyon Varlamov, unless they  extend the 35-year-old Schneider that is. Instead, look for the team to add a keeper with term on his contract or heading for restricted free agency. The team could kill two birds with one stone if they make can find a dependable addition; having a fourth-string for the playoffs and a third-string to replace Schneider next year would be a wise move.

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Snapshots: Pearson, Andersen, Dahlen

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To this point, the Vancouver Canucks had approached the future of forward Tanner Pearson with two options. If the two sides could come to terms on an extension, the preference was to retain Pearson beyond this season. If no agreement could be reached before the trade deadline, then the team would instead trade Pearson rather than risk losing him for nothing in free agency. Now, than plan might have been taken away from them. Pearson was injured in the Canucks’ Wednesday night match-up with the Ottawa Senators and was forced to leave the game. The team has since announced that the injury is far worse than merely a one-game absence. Pearson is expected to miss at least four weeks with an undisclosed lower-body injury. With the trade deadline just 24 days away, Pearson will not return to action before the Canucks’ last chance to move him. In a normal year, perhaps a team would be willing to buy low on an injured Pearson at the deadline. However, in this cap-strapped climate, teams aren’t messing around with adding salary and with Pearson not only injured through the deadline but with an uncertain timeline to return altogether, there is very little chance that the Canucks will be able to move him. Perhaps GM Jim Benning and company will be able to leverage the injury into a more affordable extension; Vancouver’s lack of cap space is believed to be the reason why a deal hasn’t already been reached and a cheaper deal would help to make the squeeze work for next season and beyond. Otherwise, its seems the Canucks have missed their chance to get any value out of Pearson before he departs this summer. It’s not and ideal outcome for the team or the player, who would prefer to be competing for a playoff spot if and when he returns to action.

  • Another player dealing with injury is Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Frederik Andersen. Yet, Andersen continues to suit up for the team. After a two-week hiatus with a lower-body injury, Andersen returned to Leafs earlier this month. However, the injury continues to nag him, he tells TSN’s Kristen Shilton, and it has shown on the ice. Andersen brought a 2-4-0 record, .887 save percentage, and 3.30 GAA in March into Toronto’s Friday night contest with the Calgary Flames, only to allow four goals on 18 shots in yet another loss. Andersen has now allowed 19 goals in his last five games. With their starter faltering, the Leafs will turn to backup Jack Campbell to start their next game, but one game off for Andersen is unlikely to provide any long-term relief. The Maple Leafs, who are serious Stanley Cup contenders this year and face an unusually easy path to the Final without having to go through the Tampa Bay Lightning and/or Boston Bruins in the early rounds this year. If Toronto doesn’t give Andersen another extended break to shake his nagging injury and his play does not improve, they may need to start considering a major change in net before the trade deadline. Andersen’s play this season, injury or not, is also certainly impacting his impending free agency as well.
  • San Jose Sharks prospect Jonathan Dahlen has been named the MVP of the Allsvenskan, the team was proud to announce. Although the Allsvenskan is Sweden’s second-tier league, Dahlen’s 25 goals and 71 points in 45 games are still impressive and helped Timra IK to a regular season title (by a wide margin) and a chance at promotion to the SHL. This is Dahlen’s second straight season of 70+ points as the leading scorer for Timra and it seems like he is finally ready to make the transition to the NHL. Dahlen, 23, has played parts of two seasons in the AHL, but always seemed to have one foot out the door given his preference to play in Sweden if he wasn’t in the NHL. Perhaps that has contributed to his NHL rights being traded twice already. However, the Sharks are in no position to turn away affordable forward talent and should be ready to give Dahlen a shot at a roster spot next season, if not sooner once his Allsvenskan season ends.

Canucks Notes: Pearson, Virtanen, Hamonic

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The Vancouver Canucks have yet to extend a contract offer to pending unrestricted free agent Tanner Pearson according to Rick Dhaliwal of The Athletic, though his colleague Thomas Drance expects things to get “more serious” this week between the two sides. Pearson, 28, carries a $3.75MM cap hit this season in the last year of a four-year, $15MM deal he signed with the Los Angeles Kings in 2017. That contract came after Pearson set a career-high in goals with 24, a total he would have exceeded last season with the Canucks had the season not been cut short.

Unfortunately, that outstanding 21-goal, 45-point player that the Canucks had last season hasn’t emerged this time around. Pearson has just five goals and 10 points in 31 games so far, likely costing himself money on his next contract by the day. Still, there’s no doubting how trusted he is by the Vancouver coaching staff, especially after playing at least 19:30 in three of his last four games (including a whopping 22:33 against the Montreal Canadiens last week).

  • Jake Virtanen has been shopped around by the Canucks on several occasions, but Irfaan Gaffar of The Fourth Period tweets that the enigmatic forward now may not be moved by the trade deadline unless there is an offer GM Jim Benning “can’t refuse.” Virtanen, 24, has just three goals and hasn’t recorded a single assist in 26 games this season. Trading him now would certainly be selling at the lowest point, but the Canucks are going to need to move out salary somehow over the coming months. Virtanen’s $2.55MM cap hit through 2021-22 now looks like a massive overpay, despite the 18 goals and 36 points he put up last season.
  • Travis Hamonic is a player who wants to stay with the Canucks if possible, but knows that he is a little further down the pecking line when it comes to extensions. The veteran defenseman told Ben Kuzma of The Province that he saw Vancouver as a potential long-term fit for his family when he decided to sign a one-year, $1.25MM deal and would love to stick around past this season if possible. The Manitoba native will hit unrestricted free agency again this summer and has been clear in the past that he wants to continue playing in Western Canada. Hamonic holds a full no-trade clause this season.

Trade Deadline Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Although we’re just two months into the season, the trade deadline is already a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Columbus Blue Jackets franchise is nothing if not hopeful. After 17 years of remaining faithful, the team finally won a playoff series in 2019 and then won another in 2020. Even though their play this season has been disappointing at times, they are still in the running for the fourth and final playoff spot in the Central Division and have a non-zero chance of catching the upstart Chicago Blackhawks and holding off the Dallas Stars.

With that said, this Blue Jackets team is in the bottom third of the league in goals for per game, goals against per game, power play, and penalty kill. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, even if they again wondrously upset the Tampa Bay Lightning, this is not a team with title hopes this year. This is not a team buying at the deadline.

Besides, the Blue Jackets already made their big move this season: the acquisition of two new core pieces in Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic. Columbus may not be playing up to their expectations this season, but it has been an odd year – and for this team in particular – and the Blue Jackets are probably best served to just take it easy at the trade deadline. Just as this is not a contending roster, it is equally not a roster in need of a rebuild. Columbus should stay the course. If they receive outstanding offers for their impending free agents or term depth players, they should consider. If they are faced with the opportunity to add a term depth player of their own, they should consider. By and large though, the Blue Jackets should focus on the group they currently have and see if they can sneak into the postseason. This is not a year for Columbus to do anything drastic.

Record

11-12-6, .483, 5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Opportunistic Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$1.571MM in full-season space ($7.01MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 43/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: CLB 1st, CLB 3rd, CLB 4th, CLB 5th, NJD 5th, CLB 6th, CLB 7th
2022: CLB 1st, CLB 2nd, CLB 4th, CLB 6th, ANA 7th

Trade Chips

The Blue Jackets are sitting on a pair of prime time impending free agents, but unlike 2019, when Columbus couldn’t bear to let Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky go without loading up and going for a run, the team has a different reason this time around to think twice about parting ways with their most valuable pieces. Nick Foligno and David Savard bleed Jackets blue. The former is the captain and the latter is a career Blue Jacket and the longest tenured player on the team. There is certainly some discussion in the front office about whether it is really worth it to part with either player. Of course, much of that also revolves around extension talks. If this is the end of Foligno and/or Savard in Columbus anyway, then the team should trade them. However, if either one wants to remain with the club in the future, likely re-signing after expansion, it could be better for all parties if they held on to them. Foligno especially, as the locker room leader for a team that is still within reach of a playoff spot, has value on the team this season, perhaps more than he would to any other team in the league. Foligno is also having a down year offensively and may not command a great return. Savard, on the other hand, is extremely valuable to a great many teams as an experienced shutdown defender on the right side. Yet, he also fits perfectly as a complement to the Blue Jackets’ more offensive-minded, puck-moving top pair and the team surely hopes that he wishes to remain in that role moving forward.

Fortunately for Columbus, they aren’t without other valuable rentals if Foligno and Savard stay put, albeit to a lesser extent. First-time Blue Jackets Michael Del Zotto and Mikhail Grigorenko could be nice depth additions for contenders, as could bottom-six center Riley Nash. None of them have had especially noteworthy seasons, but are useful additions nonetheless. Del Zotto especially is affordable and experienced – a nice acquisition for a cap-strapped team in need of skill on the blue line.

Among term players, there are certainly already some calling for the trade of Max Domi. The off-season acquisition, who signed a two-year extension with the team, has been nothing short of underwhelming this season. However, is there any upside to trading him now? Domi, who already has a reputation for not lasting long with teams, may be at the lowest point in trade value in his career. Especially in a cap-strapped climate, the Blue Jackets would almost certainly not get back fair value. The optics would also be bad, as counterpart Josh Anderson has found immediate success with the Montreal Canadiens. Columbus would be much better off to hold on to Domi and see if he can improve next season before making a decision on his future. Unless, of course, someone blows them away with an offer. Domi was expected to fill a hole down the middle for Columbus, so any deal to move him out right now should aim to bring another talented center in.

Despite a recent extension in February, there is a more logical reason to potentially move defenseman Dean Kukan. Kukan has missed some time this season, but has played well when healthy. As one of the top candidates to be selected by the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft, the Blue Jackets may choose instead to get value back for the blue liner if there is interest. Of course, they may also just hold out hope that Seattle goes in a different direction.

Of course, the big move that Columbus could make is to break up their young goalie tandem. With both Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins set to hit free agency after next season, there is some question as to the viability of retaining both beyond that point. Either one would certainly draw interest on the trade market, though a deal is more likely in the off-season. Specifically, when it comes to Korpisalo, there may be limited demand around the league for adding an eligible goalie prior to the expansion draft rather than after. His market would likely be improved in the summer. If the Blue Jackets decide to make a big change in net at the deadline rather than waiting for the summer, it is more likely to be Merzlikins on the move.

Others to Watch For: D Scott Harrington ($1.633M, UFA 2022), D Gabriel Carlsson ($725K, RFA 2022), D Adam Clendening ($700K, UFA), F Ryan MacInnis ($700K, Group 6 UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks and Prospects – Unfortunately, the Blue Jackets are still feeling the effects of their all-out approach at the 2019 trade deadline, as well as some other moves they have made. They have not had many high-value picks over the past two years and are still without some key selections moving forward, including a second-rounder this year and a third-rounder in 2022. With many of their top prospects having graduated to the pros as well, Columbus has a young NHL roster, but a lacking pipeline. In fact, The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler ranked it 27th overall in the league, which would be easier to swallow if the team was performing better. Whether by picks or by prospects, the Blue Jackets need to try to replenish the system.

2) A Term Forward – The shrewd GM that he is, don’t be surprised to see Jarmo Kekalainen try to address the Expansion Draft ahead of the deadline. Assuming their most likely protection scheme and choices, the Blue Jackets are currently short one forward to meet the exposure quota that the draft demands, unless they re-sign Nash or Grigorenko, UFA’s they could instead trade, or Kevin Stenlund, who would also need to play regularly down the stretch to meet the games played criteria. Those options aren’t ideal and the Blue Jackets could just as easily find a player to trade for at a low price who covers them for expansion, but could also play a role next season if not selected. Although Columbus shouldn’t be a typical buyer at the deadline, an additional forward could also help in their continued pursuit of a playoff spot, especially if they move one or more of their impending free agents up front. Again, center is the team’s biggest positional need, but not necessarily the priority here in adding a player they plan to expose in expansion.

Seattle Kraken Among Teams Restricted In College Free Agency

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The college free agent market has yet to really kick into high gear. Some NCAA teams have already finished their seasons, some of the names attached to those teams are now available, and some have even signed minor league deal. Yet, to date there has not been an NHL signing by a college free agent just yet.

That will all change soon, though. As conference tournaments continue through this weekend and next week, many more seasons will come to an end shortly. For those programs who aren’t a realistic candidate for at-large bid, ranked at least in the top-20 nationally, the next loss will be the final one of the season. This will continue until next Sunday – “Selection Sunday” – when the 16-team field for the NCAA Tournament will be revealed. Any fringe teams holding out hope will learn their fates and those on the outside looking in will join the teams that have already been eliminated in saying goodbye to the 2020-21 season. A week later, all but four of the tourney teams will also be done. By the end of the month, at the latest, college free agency will be in full swing and after the Frozen Four concludes and a National Champion is named on April 10, it is safe to assume that the free agent market will have been picked clean within days. Although college free agency has not yet made its mark this year, by this time next month the majority of the NCAA player rush could be over.

This poses a problem for the NHL’s newest team, the Seattle Kraken. As Darren Brown writes for Sound of Hockey, the Kraken have yet to make their final expansion payment to the league and as such still lack official standing. This means that they cannot yet sign any free agents to contracts for next season. When the Vegas Golden Knights entered the league, they made their inaugural signing, undrafted junior free agent Reid Duke, on March 6. Already beyond that date this year, Seattle is behind on their payment schedule compared to Vegas and it will impact their ability to add prospects. It is believed that the Kraken are on track to make their final payment next month, presumably before the April 12 trade deadline, but by that time it may be too late to cash in on college free agency. If at all possible, Seattle would be best-served to make their final payment as soon as possible.

The delayed trade deadline date could cause some difficulty with college free agent decisions for a number of other teams, too. Normally, the deadline falls two weeks earlier than it will this season and much of the college free agent frenzy takes place after that date. Following the deadline, teams know for sure where they sit in terms of roster limits for the season, which has taken on even more importance in recent years as a key negotiating tactic for young free agents has been the opportunity to sign right away and burn a year off of their entry-level contract. For the Anaheim Ducks, Philadelphia Flyers, and Washington Capitals, all of whom currently have 49 of their maximum 50 contract slots filled, they won’t have that assurance when the market begins to heat up this year. While the Ducks, a seller, have more certainty that they can move a current contract or two to make room for any college free agent signings, the Flyers and Capitals are expected to be buyers and risk leverage in deal-making above all else if they hit the 50-contract maximum by signing a college free agent and sellers know that they must shed a contract to add one at the deadline. The Edmonton Oilers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and St. Louis Blues, all at 48 contracts, will also have to be careful with the college free agent market if they plan to add multiple pieces at the deadline. This could all make for an intriguing period of NCAA additions, with some of the usual top suitors potentially playing it safe while teams with more flexibility and opportunity swoop in.

Trade Deadline Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Although we’re not even two months into the season, the trade deadline is just over a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Buffalo Sabres.

No team has received more media scrutiny this season than the Buffalo Sabres. The team is floundering yet again despite adding the top free agent forward in Taylor Hall and acquiring veteran center Eric Staal. Not only have Hall and Staal disappointed, but very few members of the team have exceeded or even met expectations this season. With failing veterans, stalled youngsters, and a number of expiring contracts, the Sabres are stuck and appear primed for a fire sale and resumed focus on rebuilding.

According to a number of sources, almost anyone on the Sabres could be made available. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Buffalo is “wide open” for business and The Athletic included four Sabres on their Trade Deadline Big Board. It all sounds very exciting to the other 30 teams and their fans, doesn’t it? Well, don’t get your hopes too high for major moves by Buffalo. Given the constraints of an NHL trade market impacted by a flat salary cap as well as real-life financial struggles, not to mention the restrictions on Canadian teams due to COVID-19 border policies, making trades this year is no easy feat. Trading a player like Jack Eichel in-season seems nearly impossible, even if the Sabres wanted to move him which is unlikely. Add in that rookie GM Kevyn Adams is new to the job and trying to build connections in a quiet market while trying to avoid being taken advantage of, and the Sabres suddenly look like a team that might end up playing it safe. Does Adams really want to move the likes of Sam Reinhart and Victor Olofsson, both of whom are among the productive minority in Buffalo, when the odds of winning such a move seem slim? Does he want to potentially overreact to the frustrations of Jeff Skinner and give away major assets to move his contract? Adams has a number of contracts expiring after this year and next that he can move without much risk of it coming back to bite him. Expect that “wide open” means he’s willing to move any amount of those players, but won’t be too keen to touch anyone else who the team may still be able to build around.

Record

6-14-3, .326, 8th in East Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$410,962 in full-season cap space, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 4th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th
2022: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 3rd, BUF 4th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

Trade Chips

Hall of course stands out as the top trade chip for the Sabres if you assume that the likes of Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, and Rasmus Dahlin are not going anywhere (a safe assumption despite the whispers). The former Hart Trophy winner may not be enjoying a strong season, but he is a known commodity who can play a top-six role for any team in the league. Hall has expressed some interest in re-signing with Buffalo, but without any evidence that he is a fit and with a ways to go in their rebuild, retaining the 29-year-old Hall on a heavy price tag makes little sense. The trouble with trading him though is a potential lack of suitors who can actually afford his $8MM cap hit. A lack of demand could impact what Buffalo is able to receive in a deal, but they should still end up with a nice package. Anything is better than letting him walk for free this summer.

Staal too could see his time in Buffalo come to a quick end. The veteran center is well-respected across the league and brings solid two-way play and postseason experience. While he has lost a step, that won’t stop contenders from seeing him as a worthwhile depth addition.

On defense, Brandon Montour is absolutely on the block. The puck-moving defenseman is headed for free agency and the Sabres have made it known that they are open to renting him out. Montour has not produced as they had hoped and is no longer in their long-term plans, so Buffalo has no reason not to trade the 26-year-old defenseman. Given his offensive upside, his ability to play either side of the blue line, and his palatable $3.85MM cap hit, Montour should be easy to move. Sadly, Jake McCabe also would have been easy to move and would have returned a prime package as arguably the best left-handed defenseman on a trade deadline seller. However, his season is over due to injury and the Sabres will lose out on his trade value.

Even with Montour and McCabe out of the way this off-season, the Sabres still face a potential expansion conundrum on defense. Should Buffalo choose to protect seven forwards and three defensemen, Dahlin is a lock but it leaves only two spots to split between top-four blue liners Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller and young Henri Jokiharju. The Sabres could choose to move one of the three rather than lose them for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. Ristolainen had long been a fixture on the rumor mill, but those talks have cooled significantly since last season. Do the Sabres finally move the talented defenseman, especially as his stock has risen this season? Ristolainen only has one season remaining on his contract and could be tempted to pursue a more talented team in free agency after playing exclusively for Buffalo thus far in his pro career. Miller also has just one year remaining on his deal and comes with a lesser price tag than Ristolainen, albeit with a less complete game as well. Jokijarju, 21, is not necessarily safe either; the young rearguard has not met expectations thus far in his time with the Sabres but he does have impressive upside.

In net, Buffalo will see both members of their NHL tandem hit the open market this summer barring an extension. The Sabres may be well-served to extend 27-year-old Linus Ullmark, but if the feeling isn’t mutual then they should move the net minder while he can still return value. If Ullmark is healthy, he could be a major trade chip for the Sabres. Veteran Carter Hutton is less likely to move given his struggles and his $2.75MM cap hit, but Buffalo will certainly make him available.

Others to Watch For: F Curtis Lazar ($800K, one year remaining), F Tobias Rieder ($700K, UFA), F Riley Sheahan ($700K, UFA), D Matt Irwin ($700K, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Sabres fans rightfully want their team to be better and they want them to be better sooner rather than later. However, that isn’t easy to do. A rookie GM with few impact players and little cap space doesn’t have the means to immediately upgrade his roster. This team is headed toward a long, arduous rebuild. What makes accepting that reality even more difficult is that the Sabres do not even have their full complement of draft picks to build upon. Missing a third and a fifth this year and a fifth next year, Buffalo is in the unfortunate position of needing to add talent to their pipeline and don’t even have the complete means to do so. The goal for Adams and company at the deadline should be not only to recoup their missing picks but to add other high-value picks as well.

2) Prospects – If the Sabres are unable to add valuable future prospects in the form of high draft picks, they need to target current top prospects instead. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler recently ranked Buffalo’s pipeline as 15th-best in the NHL, an unacceptable position for a team that is supposed to be rebuilding. The Sabres need to move from middle-of-the-pack toward the top of the NHL’s prospect rankings if they want to speed up their rebuild. A projected top-four defenseman and center depth should be the specific targets of their aim to add youth.

Notre Dame’s Alex Steeves Drawing NHL Interest

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The NCAA free agent market is about to open up. College teams are wrapping up their regular seasons this weekend and conference tournaments will follow soon after. For those teams facing an uphill battle to win an automatic bid and unlikely to claim an at-large bid, seasons could be over in a week or two.

One player facing down that scenario is Notre Dame forward Alex Steeves. The Fighting Irish currently sit in fourth-place in the Big Ten Conference and would have to battle through 2020-21 powerhouses Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to win their conference tournament. They are also not a top-20 nationally ranked team and sit well outside the 13/14 spot usually awarded to the final at-large team in the NCAA Tournament. Barring a miraculous turn, Steeves and Notre Dame will likely be done for the year in short order.

Except, Steeves likely won’t be done for the year. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger, Steeves is the hottest name among undrafted college free agents this year and could be scooped up quickly and signed to an NHL contract that begins this season. Steeves, 21, is only a junior at Notre Dame and has NCAA eligibility remaining, but will likely opt out in favor of the pros after a career year. The skilled forward has recorded 14 goals and 29 points in 27 games this season, one more point than he accrued in 36 games last year. Steeves is hardly the only player scoring at more than a point-per-game pace in the NCAA this season, but he is tied for sixth in goal scoring and is doing so for an Irish team that has not played up to expectations this year.

While Dreger does not mention any specific suitors for Steeves’ services, the New Hampshire native will be linked to the Boston Bruins – as are all New England natives seemingly – as well as the Chicago Blackhawks, located right across the lake from South Bend, Indiana and the owners of Steeves’ linemate, Landon Slaggert. Steeves also played alongside Notre Dame prospects belonging to the Ducks, Flames, Avalanche, Predators, Devils, and Islanders, all of whom have surely witnessed plenty of the forward’s ability this season. Many of the NHL’s rebuilding club are not among this list either but will offer the most immediate opportunity to the collegiate star. It’s understandable why Dreger describes there as being a robust market for Steeves given the vast number of potential landing spots.

Bruins Could Re-Sign Tuukka Rask And Jaroslav Halak

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The Boston Bruins have one of the better goalie tandems in the NHL right now and have for several years in the veteran duo of Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. The defending Jennings Trophy winners have shown no signs of slowing down either; Rask finished second in Vezina Trophy voting last season while leading the league in goals against average and Halak currently has a sub-2.40 GAA of his own for his third straight season in Boston. Yet, when the 2020-21 season comes to a close, the Bruins will no longer have either under contract as the tandem are slated for unrestricted free agency. That is unless they re-sign one or both during the season. Appearing on NBC Sports, Bob McKenzie reported that the Bruins are open to extending both Rask and Halak and would considering doing so in-season as well, “if they get the sense from the goaltenders that’s what they want to do.”

Breaking down McKenzie’s report into two pieces, it certainly makes sense that the Bruins would entertain re-signing Rask and/or Halak. Rask, 33, is the player McKenzie acknowledges as the “key” to the future in net in Boston. The Bruins starter is quietly on his way to a Hall of Fame career with a top-five all-time mark in save percentage and the leading save percentage and GAA among all active goalies. Yet, even more important to this conversation is that he is still among the best in the game. While Rask has received criticism throughout his career, he remains one of the more difficult goalies in the NHL to replace. Even with names like Jordan Binnington, Frederik Andersen, and Petr Mrazek potentially available on the open market this off-season, there is no sure thing that the Bruins could confidently replace the play of Rask. Fortunately, Rask is not much of a threat to follow the money to another club. Well-compensated throughout his career and having previously stated that he does not want to play anywhere but Boston, it seems that if Rask wants to keep playing the Bruins will re-sign him.

As for Halak, 35, he may be more valuable to Boston than any other team in the NHL. There is a strong correlation between proper rest and elite performance in Rask’s career and having a dependable backup behind him in Halak these past few years has been an incredible asset for the Bruins. The team’s trust in the aging but productive net minder may just lead to another contract. With plenty of cap space, Boston can afford to pay for a top-dollar backup for another year or two. Of course, the counter-argument to a Halak return is that it would be easier for the Bruins to find another reliable backup in free agency than and they could potentially save money in looking elsewhere. Bringing back such a proven commodity in Halak will also once again block top goalie prospects Dan Vladar and Jeremy Swayman, who each rank in the top ten in the AHL in save percentage so far this season. As the Bruins continue to inject youth into their lineup, the question becomes whether they can give opportunity to the prospects and still provide sound play from the backup position or if the safer route is to simply stick with the tandem that has worked so well.

As for McKenzie’s statement that the Bruins could re-sign Rask or Halak during the season, there is more reason to be more skeptical of that assertion. With Rask and Halak both on expiring contracts, there is no need to protect either in the impending NHL Expansion Draft. Especially given the number of attractive options on the Boston roster available to the Seattle Kraken, the team would not select a UFA goalie. In their current contract state, the Bruins can instead protect Vladar from Seattle while exposing impending RFA fifth-string Callum Booth. Vladar, 23, would otherwise become a potential selection risk if Rask or Halak are re-signed and thus require protection. The young goaltender is enjoying another elite season in the AHL and could very well be the Bruins’ goalie of the future if he can outplay Swayman. Why would the Bruins leave Vladar exposed when they don’t need to?

Well, as McKenzie points out, if there is pressure from Rask or Halak to sign a new deal before the end of the season then that could change the status quo. Additionally, Vladar will drop his waiver exemption next season, meaning that the Bruins could lose him anyway if he is not ready for the NHL. (This is exactly what happened with Malcolm Subban and the Vegas Golden Knights following the last Expansion Draft.) The Bruins may also look at Vladar as worthwhile bait for Seattle to take over one of their many established roster players at forward and defense who will also be exposed. In that case, there is no reason to hold off on an extension for Rask or Halak if the plan would be to protect them as a UFA anyhow in order to expose Vladar.

It remains to be seen what exactly will happen to Boston’s situation in goal, but timing aside it is a safe bet that Rask will be back between the pipes for the Bruins next season and beyond and Halak could be right there with him. If one or both don’t return, it will make for an intriguing off-season in Boston.

Extension Talks Stall Between Hurricanes And Dougie Hamilton

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Last week, word came out that contract extension talks had cooled between the Hurricanes and RFA winger Andrei Svechnikov.  Now, it appears that this isn’t the only stalled contract negotiation Carolina has with a pending free agent as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that this is also the case with defenseman Dougie Hamilton with talks basically being nonexistent for the past month.

The 27-year-old is off to a bit of a quieter start to his season compared to 2019-20 but has still made an impact offensively with 14 points in 22 games.  Of course, he also contributes in his own end and is once again logging heavy minutes, averaging over 22 minutes per game.  These are top-pairing numbers, something that his agent J.P. Barry has surely communicated to Carolina GM Don Waddell.

LeBrun suggests that Hamilton’s camp is likely going to want to use Alex Pietrangelo’s deal signed in the fall ($8.8MM AAV) as a valid comparable with an asking price coming in a bit below that.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes may view Pietrangelo’s replacement in Torey Krug ($6.5MM AAV) as a better starting point.

That’s a considerable gap to try to bridge if those are indeed the numbers being suggested which is why LeBrun wonders if this could be a situation that doesn’t get resolved until closer to the July 28th opening of unrestricted free agency.  While that strategy has worked before, it also didn’t with St. Louis and Pietrangelo just last year and Hamilton will be in a similar situation as the top blueliner available on the open market.  As we saw last year, even in this environment, the top free agents have still been able to command a significant contract and there’s no reason to think that this won’t be the case here.

With more than four months between now and the market opening up, there’s still plenty of time to get something done and with expansion pending, delaying things isn’t necessarily the worst idea.  Given his status, Hamilton is a strong candidate to land a no-move clause on his next deal and if it was to be signed before Seattle’s team is selected, he’d become a mandatory protected player while if they wait, it’s easier to leave a pending unrestricted free agent unprotected, allowing them to keep an extra player.  It’s not without its risks though as the Kraken would get an exclusive negotiating period and the closer someone gets to free agency, the temptation to test the market likely grows.  That’s one of the decisions that will be weighing on Waddell in the weeks and months ahead.

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