What Your Team Is Thankful For: Calgary Flames
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads towards the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Calgary Flames.
What are the Flames most thankful for?
A healthy start.
Injuries are a part of sports, and they’re going to happen for every team in the NHL at some point. But so far, the Flames have escaped relatively unscathed. Fifteen different players have suited up in at least 19 of the team’s 20 games, including basically every important member of the group.
In fact, since they started the year, Calgary has completed just two recalls from the minor leagues. Jacob Markstrom and Daniel Vladar have been the two dressed goaltenders in all 20 matches, meaning not only have they had a consistent effort, but also a consistent group in the locker room.
Who are the Flames most thankful for?
It’s hard to believe that a coach can make such a huge difference, but the Stanley Cup-winning bench boss appears to have secured a complete buy-in from his squad and a commitment to playing his low-event checking style. The Flames have allowed just 38 goals through 20 games and have the best goal differential in the league.
Not everything is because of Sutter, as there have been some very strong performances–perhaps even unexpected–from the defensive unit, but the veteran coach has the entire group moving in the right direction.
What would the Flames be even more thankful for?
Sean Monahan‘s re-emergence.
The one concern some have when discussing the Flames, a team that has dominated the league so far, is the disappearance of Monahan’s offense. Through the first seven seasons of Monahan’s career, he had 194 goals, good for more than 29 per 82 games. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, he has 12 (just seven since Sutter took over).
His minutes have dropped to the lowest of his career and he has generated just 25 shots on goal through 20 games this season. For a player carrying a cap hit of $6.375MM, that’s simply not acceptable even if the overall Flames group is still churning through opponents. The idea of Monahan returning to some semblance of the 30-goal scorer he once was, without disrupting the defensive structure the Flames currently have would make them all the more imposing.
What should be on the Flames’ Holiday Wish List?
A Matthew Tkachuk extension.
Johnny Gaudreau has been outstanding this season, leading the team in scoring with 23 points in 20 games. He’s also an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, so his future should be front and center when discussing any contract negotiations in Calgary. But it’s Tkachuk, who has been a lynchpin of Sutter’s structure and once again seems like the obvious choice as the team’s future captain that will really decide how much they could spend on Gaudreau.
Already the team’s highest-paid player, Tkachuk is about to hit restricted free agency for the last time, a year away from the open market. He won’t even turn 24 until next month, but is already in the midst of his sixth season in the league, meaning any extension would buy out almost exclusively UFA seasons. It will be a massive contract if Tkachuk does agree to something long-term with the Flames, a number that would limit them elsewhere or cause other cost-cutting measures (perhaps like a bottom-six center that makes more than $6MM next season).
There’s nothing that would be more important for the Flames this winter, so they can also go into the trade deadline with some sort of cap certainty moving forward.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Dallas Stars
Current Cap Hit: $85,575,985 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
G Jake Oettinger (one year, $925K)
F Jacob Peterson (two years, $842.5K)
F Jason Robertson (one year, $795K)
Potential Bonuses
Oettinger: $537.5K
Peterson: $82.5K
Robertson: $82.5K
Total: $702.5K
Peterson spending this much time on the roster early on in his first season in North America is a bit of a surprise but the fact he has done well is certainly encouraging for the Stars. With it being his first year, it’s hard to project where his next deal will be but he’s well on his way to hitting some of his games played bonus money. Robertson finished second on the Stars in scoring last season and is hovering near the point per game mark again this year. Limited action in his rookie campaign hurts his bargaining power a little but as long as he can play at a similar level to last year, he should have enough of a case to argue for a long-term contract with an AAV that could check in close to the one Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov recently received (eight years, $7.75MM cap hit).
Oettinger is listed here more to talk about his next contract than anything else as he’s basically the third-string option this season unless they move two veteran goalies out. He could be a regular again in 2022-23 and while he’s someone that Dallas would be wise to try to get a multi-year agreement in place with, there’s little reason for the youngster to agree to that. A one-year agreement that gets him to arbitration eligibility in the 2023 summer would be his best course of action even if it means his salary won’t jump up too much for next season. Meanwhile, as he has ‘A’ bonuses, it’s unlikely he’ll hit them this season unless he’s up full-time before too much longer which will help lessen their carryover penalty.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Denis Gurianov ($2.55MM, RFA)
G Braden Holtby ($2MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($7MM, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5MM, UFA)
Pavelski’s first season was quiet aside from a strong playoff run which carried over into last year when he led the Stars in scoring. He’s still producing like a top-six forward at a minimum (if not a top-liner last season) but he’s also going to be 38 when 2022-23 gets underway. A one-year deal seems likely which opens up the potential for bonuses as well. Even so, he’s going to be heading for at least a small dip although something in the $4MM-$5MM range is certainly possible. Radulov is the other big-ticket deal coming off the books. He’s coming off an injury-plagued season and is off to a particularly tough start this year. He’ll be 36 next season and there will be questions as to whether or not he can still play in the top six of an NHL team. As someone that has opted to take bigger money overseas once before, it’s definitely a possibility here if his AAV dips into the $3MM range.
Gurianov got this bridge coming off an improbable 20-goal season but still hasn’t been able to establish himself as a consistent top-six forward. He’s young enough (24) to get a longer leash but his qualifying offer jumps to $2.9MM next summer. With the start to the season he’s having, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that in theory but with arbitration eligibility, he should be able to use that to push past the $3MM mark. Raffl has been more of a fourth liner in recent years and after going through the market this past summer, it’s safe to say his value next summer should check in fairly close to his current $1.1MM price tag.
If Dallas is going to reallocate some of Pavelski or Radulov’s money, Klingberg could very well be the beneficiary. A report last month pegged his asking price at over $60MM over eight years, an AAV of $7.5MM or higher. That’s a significant jump over his current price tag although he has the offensive production to try to shoot that high. The Stars may not prefer to go eight years but if it keeps the cap hit lower, they’ll seriously have to consider it. Sekera hasn’t been an impact blueliner for a few years now and has been more of a depth player in Dallas. He’ll have to take a pay cut to get another NHL deal and could be a candidate for an incentive-based deal with a guarantee not far off the minimum with a few hundred thousand in games placed bonuses.
Holtby landing with Dallas was one of the more puzzling goalie moves this summer although they got him at a heavily discounted rate compared to a few years ago. Of course, there’s a reason for that since he was bought out by Vancouver. He’s off to a decent start this season which could help him restore some value and get closer to that higher tier of backups in the high-$3MM range.
Two Years Remaining
G Ben Bishop ($4.917MM, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($750K, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15MM, RFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($1.05MM, UFA)
Hintz has largely flown under the radar in Dallas with several high-priced veterans in front of him but he was a top-liner for them last season. His output has dipped early on this year but there’s still time to turn that around. Their cap situation in 2020 forced a bridge deal but Hintz will have the hammer in the next negotiation with arbitration rights, a $3.79MM qualifier (120% of the AAV), and being a year away from UFA eligibility. A long-term deal in the $6MM range is certainly doable for him. Glendening is a role player at this point but as one of the best faceoff players in the league most years, it allows him to get more of a premium compared to other fourth liners. As long as he keeps winning draws at a clip better than most, there’s no reason to think he can’t get another deal around this price tag in 2023. Kiviranta was at his best in the 2020 bubble but has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL player yet and has been limited when he is in the lineup. If that continues, he’ll be hard-pressed to get this on the open market, let alone more.
Hanley has been on a minimum contract for the last several seasons, serving as low-cost depth. That’s a roster spot they’ll want to keep at that price point so he could stick around for a little while yet.
Bishop missed all of last season and all of this year so far which has him on LTIR. However, he has been skating regularly for a while now but they can’t afford to activate him without clearing cap space first so that’s something to watch for from Dallas in the near future. With how much time he has missed and the fact his next deal will be his age-37 season, it’s not a guarantee Bishop gets another contract and if he does, a one-year, incentive-based deal with a lower salary is all he could hope for. Khudobin’s numbers dipped last season and have gotten considerably worse so far in 2021-22. Like Bishop, his next contract will be his age-37 season so he’ll probably be eyeing a one-year deal at best and if his numbers continue to be this poor, it’ll be at a much lower cost than his current one.
Three Years Remaining
D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5MM, UFA)
Hakanpaa got himself on the map last season as he played in 57 games between Anaheim and Carolina (notable in itself considering it was a 56-game campaign) while providing plenty of physicality from the back end. That resulted in a fairly strong market for him in free agency, allowing him to get three years after only his first NHL season at the age of 29. He’ll need to move into a top-four role to have an opportunity for a bigger deal next time around.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Buffalo Sabres
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads towards the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Buffalo Sabres.
What are the Sabres most thankful for?
A conclusion to the Jack Eichel saga.
For months, there was constant discussion about how Buffalo management was mistreating their frustrated, injured former captain, with a new story coming out nearly every day. Since completing the trade that sent Eichel to the Vegas Golden Knights, all of that chatter has been silenced and Kevyn Adams is no longer the target of the fans’ ire (at least not for that).
That doesn’t mean the Sabres are better without Eichel, and it certainly doesn’t mean Adams has figured out how to make his team competitive, but at least the magnifying glass has been moved somewhere else for a little while.
Who are the Sabres most thankful for?
Don Granato.
The Sabres are 7-10-2 on the season. They’re 2-7-1 in their last ten. They’ve lost four in a row. But still, it feels as though they finally have a coaching staff that the fans can believe in, at least in the short term. Granato has made the team competitive, even if they will ultimately finish near the bottom of the league again in another rebuilding season.
The powerplay is in the top half of the league, Rasmus Dahlin (even with his warts) appears rejuvenated, and young players like Tage Thompson and Rasmus Asplund are finding their way. There are such huge gaps in the roster construction that Granato was never going to be able to make this team a contender, but it at least resembles an NHL team for the first time in a while.
What would the Sabres be even more thankful for?
An NHL goaltender.
There is defensive help on the way. There are offensive players honing their game in the minor leagues. But the Sabres aren’t going to go anywhere without a legitimate NHL starter, and right now it’s not clear if there is one in the organization.
Forty-year-old Craig Anderson has been good when healthy, and Dustin Tokarski has been a nice story after his journeyman career. But the net was supposed to be handed over to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen before long and the young netminder hasn’t progressed as hoped. In 11 AHL games he has an .883 save percentage and certainly doesn’t seem ready to take the Buffalo crease. That doesn’t mean he won’t develop into an NHL starter at some point down the road, but bad goaltending can be the bane of consistent effort. It’s difficult to play hard every night just to watch goals go in behind you, and a strong netminder can help make young defensemen feel more confident.
What should be on the Sabres’ Holiday Wish List?
Some more mid-round draft picks.
The Sabres have always had trouble surrounding their top players with effective depth, and even though this year they have secured three picks in the first round, they don’t have any extra selections in the other six. If they’re going to do this rebuild quickly and effectively, they need to hit on a few second, third and fourth-round picks as well.
Selling off a few expiring contracts at the deadline should be the plan, especially on defense, where they’ll have to clear room for Owen Power anyway when Michigan’s season comes to an end (assuming they’re able to sign him this year).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Boston Bruins
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads towards the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Boston Bruins.
What are the Bruins most thankful for?
A light early schedule.
Normally, if you said that November was coming to an end and the Bruins were seven points out of a divisional playoff spot, alarm bells would be ringing all across Boston. But with just 15 games played so far–tied for the lowest total in the league–there’s plenty of time to make up that ground. In fact, the Bruins have played five fewer games than the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings, two teams ahead of them in the Atlantic standings. Sure, things aren’t going perfect for Boston through the early part of the year with a 9-6 record, but it’s not panic time just yet.
Who are the Bruins most thankful for?
The “Perfection” line.
Despite two of its members being in their mid-thirties, the Bruins’ top line is just as devastating as ever. Brad Marchand is off to an incredible start with 20 points in his first 15 games (a points/game pace that has him fifth in the league), David Pastrnak has 15 points despite shooting at a career-low 7.6%, and Patrice Bergeron continues to be arguably the most effective two-way center in the league. The 36-year-old Bergeron has 13 points in 15 games, has been on the ice for just six goals against at even-strength (compared to 11 for), and has won 62.7% of his faceoffs to this point, easily the highest mark in the league from any full-time center.
Like they have for years now, the top line of the Bruins is carrying the offensive load while they try to figure out the rest of the lineup. While players like Craig Smith and Erik Haula struggle to find the back of the net, Pastrnak, Bergeron, and Marchand are keeping the team in the top half of the league for goals for per game. It’s not going to last forever, but it still is for now.
What would the Bruins be even more thankful for?
Tuukka Rask‘s return.
One of the biggest differences in Boston this year is the goaltending tandem, a brand new duo of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. Neither one has been exceptional, or even above-average so far, with a flat .908 save percentage for each of them. That’s not the end of the world, but it’s also not what the Bruins have been used to for the last decade-plus. In each of the 12 seasons that Rask played at least 23 games for the team, he posted a save percentage of at least .913. Overall in his career, that number was .921, one of the best in the history of the NHL.
It doesn’t mean Swayman and Ullmark can’t play to a level better than they have so far, but there’s certainly no guarantee that they will. The issue is, there’s also no guarantee that Rask can play up to the level he has in the past, even if he comes back to the team in 2022 at full strength. The veteran netminder has been clear about his desire to play for Boston once he recovers from hip surgery, even skating at their facility lately. If the Bruins have their eyes set on another postseason run, it still seems likely that it will include Rask, at least in some fashion.
What should be on the Bruins’ Holiday Wish List?
A second-line center.
If the change in net was the most noticeable, perhaps the most important was the one at the second-line pivot position. David Krejci‘s departure and subsequent return to the Czech Republic left a massive hole in the Bruins lineup, one that to this point has been filled mostly with Charlie Coyle. It’s not that Coyle has played poorly in that role, in fact quite the opposite, he leads all non-first-line Bruins’ forwards in goals and points through the first 15 games. But the team has said many times in the past that they think he is most effective on the wing, and having him there or even on the third line instead would only help to lengthen out what has become a top-heavy group.
By acquiring a legitimate top-six center at some point, it would slot everyone else in the Bruins’ lineup down a peg and make them seem like a much more well-rounded group. It’s not always easy to find that kind of player, but the team does actually have some extra cap space this time around to make an addition at the deadline. In fact, if they don’t make any drastic changes over the next few months, they could have more than $10MM in space to make a big splash. Whether they’ll have the assets to do that is another question, as is whether they’ll be in the right spot standings-wise for it to make sense.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Arizona Coyotes
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads towards the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Arizona Coyotes.
What are the Coyotes most thankful for?
The flat salary cap.
When the COVID-19 pandemic forced the NHL to hit pause on the 2019-20 season, limited attendance figures across the league, and ended the natural rise of the salary cap, teams all around the league were stuck with bad contracts that they could no longer afford. Enter the Coyotes, who used their massive amount of cap space to leverage draft picks and futures out of several transactions this summer. The team now has eight picks in the first two rounds of the 2022 NHL Draft, while their actual salary expenditure comes nowhere near the collective cap hit of the players they accumulated.
Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle, Anton Stralman, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Andrew Ladd were all considered bad contracts, but the Coyotes welcomed them with open arms if it meant adding future assets. None of those deals last more than two seasons, meaning the Coyotes will be free to do as they like down the road.
Who are the Coyotes most thankful for?
It’s hard to know if Armstrong has what it takes to build a winner, but at least Coyotes fans have a clear plan to cheer for right now. The team is bad this season. It will probably be bad for the next several seasons. But that’s better than, as Armstrong put it recently, making the playoffs “once every four years — if lucky, get by a first round, but most times get beat out.”
There will be a lot of pressure on Armstrong to pick the right players with these draft picks he has accumulated, but don’t forget that the team brought in some help for the rookie GM. Director of amateur scouting Darryl Plandowski was one of Armstrong’s first hires, bringing him to Arizona after 12 years as the assistant director of amateur scouting with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Plandowski and Armstrong weren’t allowed to participate in the 2020 draft for Arizona because of their previous roles but were responsible for the 2021 group that was headlined by Dylan Guenther (9th overall) and Josh Doan (37th).
What would the Coyotes be even more thankful for?
A healthy deadline market.
There’s little doubt that Armstrong and company would be willing to trade almost anyone on the roster at this point, but their deadline prizes include Phil Kessel, Ryan Dzingel, and Ilya Lyubushkin, among others. Perhaps a player like Gostisbehere, who is experiencing a renaissance in the desert, would also fetch a price if the Coyotes retained salary, despite the Philadelphia Flyers spending two draft picks to get him off the books a few months ago. It’s really not about getting prime, franchise-changing assets at this deadline, but any small piece that can add to the pile would be appreciated.
One thing to note is that because they retained salary on Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Darcy Kuemper already, the Coyotes can’t just trade everyone at a slashed cap hit. They can only retain salary on one more contract for this season–though, Kuemper’s retention expires at the end of the year so they can do it a couple of times again in 2022-23.
What should be on the Coyotes’ Holiday Wish List?
Draft picks, draft picks, and maybe another few veterans?
Quite frankly, the Coyotes don’t want to be good next year. They don’t want to add a young player that breaks out in 2022-23 and leads them to challenge for a playoff spot. They’re stripping it down to the bones and with the 2023 Draft being so impressive (at least at the top), they want to be in the mix for the first-overall pick.
In fact, they actually may turn into something of a buyer at the deadline, if only to take on even more bad money in the form of overpaid veterans. A player like Brett Connolly, currently buried in the minor leagues for the Chicago Blackhawks but still costing them $2.375MM against the cap, is a perfect target for a team like the Coyotes. He could fill out a spot on their team next year without the risk of really turning them into a contender, and potentially even be flipped at the 2023 deadline if things go well. There are many players like this around the league, all which could be collected if Armstrong still wants to weaponize his cap space further.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Anaheim Ducks
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads towards the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Anaheim Ducks.
What are the Ducks most thankful for?
The light at the end of the tunnel. It has been a few rough years for Anaheim as they haven’t even come close to a playoff spot in each of the last three years. However, those struggles have yielded some promising prospects, headlined by centers Trevor Zegras plus Mason McTavish and defenseman Jamie Drysdale. Those are three strong building blocks after not really being able to develop any in-house over the past few years. Are they ready to vault themselves back into consistent playoff contention yet? Probably not but there is certainly a roadmap to getting there with their promising young core.
Who are the Ducks most thankful for?
Since being held off the scoresheet in the opening game of the season, the 24-year-old has recorded at least a point in 16 straight contests. That’s impressive for anyone but especially for a player who had only reached 16 points in a single season once. Yes, it had been a particularly quiet first few seasons for him despite the fact that Terry lit up the scoresheet in college with Denver but all of a sudden, he has grabbed hold of a spot on the top line and gone with it. His dozen goals have helped propel the Ducks into the top five in goals scored, a mark that hardly anyone would have seen coming. Is this sustainable to the point where he can join the other top prospects as a piece to build around? That’s the big question from a long-term perspective but for now, Anaheim’s just enjoying the ride.
What would the Ducks be even more thankful for?
A return to form for Max Comtois in the second half. It has not been a fun season for the 22-year-old after he led Anaheim in scoring last season, earning himself a two-year deal at just over $2MM in the process. He’s not a pure power forward but brings enough physicality with some scoring touch to make him a key part of their attack.
But things haven’t gone well at all this season. Comtois has just one assist in 13 games, has been scratched, and is now out until probably January as he recovers from a broken hand. The first half has been a complete write-off but if they’re going to hang around the playoff mix, they’ll need him to be the impact player he was last season.
What should be on the Ducks’ Holiday Wish List?
Since ownership has already acknowledged that their GM search will likely go into the offseason, that chair isn’t getting permanently filled over the next few weeks. But the key item on interim GM Jeff Solomon’s wish list will be defensive stability.
In terms of the current roster, there is a need to add with both Simon Benoit and Josh Mahura both better suited for depth roles and right now, one of them is in the lineup on a regular basis when everyone’s healthy. Adding a veteran defender, particularly one that can play in the top four when injuries strike, would be a good addition for the Ducks.
But stability also extends beyond this season. Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson are both pending unrestricted free agents. Getting one or both of them signed would certainly go a long way towards giving them some more defensive certainty but finding the right price point to sway them away from the open market will cost a pretty penny. There’s also the potential that one or both are moved to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing.
It won’t be easy but Solomon needs to find a way to retain or replace those two veterans, especially since Anaheim’s prospect depth is largely littered with forwards beyond Drysdale; it is an area of need long-term. That’s a tall task for anyone let alone an interim GM but securing the future of their back end will go a long way towards securing their future as a team on the rise.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Detroit Red Wings
Current Cap Hit: $69,670,981 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Lucas Raymond (three years, $925K)
D Moritz Seider (three years, $863K)
F Joseph Veleno (two years, $894K)
F Filip Zadina (one year, $894K)
Potential Bonuses
Raymond: $2.5MM
Seider: $850K
Veleno: $318.75K
Zadina: $850K
Raymond has been one of the top rookies in the league this season, hovering at or near the point per game mark as we approach the one-quarter mark. Obviously, at that pace throughout his entry-level deal, he’d be bypassing the bridge deal altogether and signing a substantial long-term pact. In the short term, he’s well on his way to earning his $850K of ‘A’ bonuses while the ‘B’ ones (which aren’t known publicly) will be difficult to get based on those options. Zadina hasn’t had anywhere the type of impact Raymond has despite being a high pick as well. He’s a regular but is still in the middle six and players like that typically wind up with a short-term prove-it deal; it’s hard to think he’ll be an exception. On the bonus front, he might be able to land an ‘A’ bonus or two but maxing out is unlikely. Veleno has been up and down in the early going this season which doesn’t help his bonus chances. He’s a role player at this point and while that could change, it seems unlikely that will happen by next season so a bridge is likely for him as well.
Seider’s debut had long been anticipated and for good reason as he has wasted little time working his way into a significant role that sees him log significant minutes in all situations. Offensively, he is one of the top-scoring blueliners in the league already. A very strong rookie in his own right, he and Raymond could very well be battling it out for the Calder Trophy this season. Seider is quite likely to reach his ‘A’ bonuses this season if he can stay healthy. Looking further down the road, the 20-year-old basically feels like a lock to sign a long-term second contract that buys out some UFA years. He is the pillar on the back end for Detroit to build around.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
D Danny DeKeyser ($5MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Sam Gagner ($850K, UFA)
G Thomas Greiss ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
F Carter Rowney ($825K, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($2MM, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mitchell Stephens ($738K, UFA)
Fabbri is a particularly interesting case when it comes to his next contract. He has been more consistent since joining Detroit after St. Louis traded him but he still has been more of a secondary scorer. Add that to his lengthy injury history and there’s a lot for him to play for this season. A small bump into the mid-$3.5MM range is doable but he’ll need a big platform year to get a sizable long-term commitment. Namestnikov is off to a strong start offensively by his standards which is always notable in a contract year. His last trip through the open market wasn’t great and as someone that’s better in a depth role, it’s hard to see him getting back to the $4MM he had on his previous contract. Gagner has been going with low-cost one-year deals for the last two seasons and landing another one of those is certainly possible if Detroit wants to keep him around. Rowney was a late addition coming off an injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign. He has been a depth piece this season and that could very well make him a PTO candidate next summer. Stephens was brought in with the hope that a full-time role could help his development but that hasn’t happened yet. He’s young enough to still be tendered a qualifying offer but his next contract shouldn’t be for too much more than that unless his production increases when he returns from his lower-body injury.
The word that comes to mind when looking at the defensemen in this category is ‘placeholder’. Detroit took on Leddy’s contract from the Islanders with an eye on flipping him closer to the trade deadline if they’re out of the race. From his perspective, his value has dipped in recent years as his production has ticked downward aside from a brief rebound last season. He’s not heading for a significant drop but a multi-year commitment in the high $4MM/low $5MM range may be his ceiling in the summer. DeKeyser has been a fixture in Detroit’s lineup for close to a decade but he’s more of a role player than an impact one now. Getting half of his current price tag might be attainable but not much more. Staal accepted a big pay cut to stick around and he has been closer to a number six blueliner than a top-four one. Another dip is certainly possible. Stecher has been limited due to injuries and hasn’t had a big role when he has been in but he’s still fairly young (27) and as a right-shot rearguard, he will get some chances. A small increase is realistic for him. Everyone on this list is a viable trade candidate (pending waiving trade protection) and their fortunes could change depending on what team they wind up on.
Greiss is another of the stopgap goaltenders that Detroit has employed over the last few seasons over going after a high-priced starter. His first season went well (his start this year, not so much) but overall, he is a capable platoon goalie. We’ve seen the price tag for those goalies go up lately so if Greiss can rebound, a similar price tag next year is certainly a possibility. He’ll be eligible for bonuses on a one-year deal as he’ll be 36 in January so teams may prefer to go year-to-year with him from now on.
Two Years Remaining
F Tyler Bertuzzi ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Adam Erne ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Dylan Larkin ($6.1MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($3MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Givani Smith ($750K, RFA)
F Pius Suter ($3.25MM, UFA)
One of the risks Detroit took when they gave Larkin this deal was that it took him to UFA eligibility in his prime as he’ll only be 26 when he tests the market (he qualifies for UFA status based on service time, not age). Top-six centers are always in high demand and as a capable two-way player, he could be looking at a sizable raise even if his current point-per-game production doesn’t quite hold up between now and then. He won’t approach the $10MM mark but something in the high-$7MM/low-$8MM range is definitely doable.
Bertuzzi is healthy after an injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign, one that basically tanked his case for a long-term extension. The trade-off is that he will also hit the open market in his prime at 28 where he should be able to land that long-term contract with another million or two on the AAV. Suter came over after a strong rookie season from Chicago where they ultimately balked at the arbitration risk that would have come with a qualifying offer. Given his relative inexperience, he’ll need to establish himself on the second line with commensurate production to have a shot at really cashing in two years from now. Otherwise, he’ll be in line for something closer to this contract in a bottom-six role. Erne has shown flashes of offensive upside but hasn’t yet been able to establish himself as a full-time top-six player. He has, however, become a capable third-line physical winger and that alone should give him at least a small boost two years from now. Smith is a low-cost role player whose price tag shouldn’t creep too much higher than it is now unless he establishes himself as more of an impact player.
Oesterle is yet another placeholder on the back end. He has worked his way from being a player on the fringes to being a regular heading into this season which helped him land some security but as someone that’s still more of a sixth defender, his price tag shouldn’t get much higher than this.
Nedeljkovic was brought over from Carolina after the Hurricanes didn’t want to pay this type of price for someone with only a couple of strong NHL months under his belt. Still, with Detroit’s situation between the pipes, it was a more than reasonable move for GM Steve Yzerman and in the early going, Nedeljkovic has been decent. If he winds up continuing to platoon over the next couple of years, his earnings upside will be capped as he’ll be in that group that has recently been signing for in the mid-to-high-$3MM range so there will be a lot riding on how he performs this season and next.
Three Years Remaining
D Filip Hronek ($4.4MM, RFA)
F Michael Rasmussen ($1.46MM, RFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($5.25MM, UFA)
Vrana was quite impressive following his acquisition as part of the Anthony Mantha trade which helped him turn around his season where he had underwhelmed a bit with Washington. Notably, the deal only bought out one year of UFA eligibility, allowing him to hit the market in his prime as well. This season is basically a write-off due to his shoulder injury so how he performs in the next two will go a long way of showing whether or not he can become a consistent top liner. Rasmussen has underwhelmed offensively in the early going of his career but on this contract, he won’t need to produce much to provide surplus value. As a third-line center, he’s making a fair bit below market value for someone in that role and they’ll have more time to determine if he will just be a role player moving forward or a long-term piece to try to build around.
Hronek is an interesting case having been healthy scratched earlier in the season. Heading into this season, he was unquestionably Detroit’s top rearguard and even with Seider’s strong performance, Hronek leads the team in ATOI. Having a number one blueliner on this type of deal with at least one more year of team control after makes him one of their most valuable assets.
Buyouts
F Justin Abdelkader ($2.3056MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23, $1.0556MM from 2023-24 through 2025-26)
D Frans Nielsen ($4.25MM in 2021-22, $500K in 2022-23)
Retained Salary Transactions
F Richard Panik ($1.375MM through 2022-23)
Best Value: Hronek
Worst Value: DeKeyser
Looking Ahead
If you’re thinking there was a section missed with no one being listed as being signed for four years or longer, it wasn’t missed – there just aren’t any active players signed beyond three seasons; Abdelkader’s buyout is currently their longest commitment. That gives Yzerman about as blank a canvas as possible to work with over the next few seasons.
The key for the Red Wings will be ensuring that their top ‘veterans’ (Larkin, Bertuzzi, and Vrana) are either retained or replaced when their deals come to an end. That group coupled with long-term pacts for Raymond and Seider should represent the core for them to really emerge from their rebuild. With the lack of long-term commitments on their books, Detroit should be well-positioned to try to add to that group as well when the time is right.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Edmonton Oilers
Current Cap Hit: $87,327,789 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Evan Bouchard (two years, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Bouchard: $850K
Bouchard has seemingly been on the cusp for a while as Edmonton has slow-played his development and that patience looks to be well-rewarded as the 22-year-old is off to a nice start this season and has secured a spot in their top four. An offensive blueliner, Bouchard will have a shot at putting up some good numbers over the next two seasons which could push his bridge contract into the $2MM territory; their cap situation will likely force them to go with a short-term deal, similar to their other youngsters. Bouchard is also on pace to hit multiple ‘A’ bonuses (each worth a quarter of that bonus total above) and with them being well into LTIR, anything he reaches will come off the 2022-23 cap.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Josh Archibald ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Benson ($750K, RFA)
G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Brendan Perlini ($750K, RFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($1.175MM, RFA)
D Kris Russell ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($750K, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($785K, UFA)
F Kyle Turris ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Kailer Yamamoto ($1.175MM, RFA)
Puljujarvi’s second stint with Edmonton has gone a lot better than the first as the 2016 fourth-overall pick has now been able to lock down a spot in their top six and is off to quite the start this season which is always notable in a contract year. He’ll have arbitration eligibility and if he even comes close to the point per game mark (he’s currently at 1.2), his next deal could be in the $5MM or more range. If he drops back a bit, tripling his current AAV could be the ceiling on a short-term pact. Yamamoto was basically stuck signing a one-year deal for cap reasons, giving him the chance to outperform it and hit arbitration with a strong case. That hasn’t happened just yet as he’s off to a quiet start. Still, his performance in 2019-20, even in a shortened stint, could loom large with an arbitrator; doubling his current price tag on a one-year deal certainly isn’t out of the question.
Turris looked to be a decent value signing when he joined Edmonton but that didn’t exactly go as planned. He struggled to stay in the lineup last season, ultimately clearing waivers. As things stand, he’s a possible PTO candidate next summer. Archibald’s health situation has put his future for next season in question while Perlini and Sceviour are holding down roster spots that will need to be kept at the minimum. Benson is just getting his feet wet and has been viewed as one of their better prospects in the past but he’ll need to establish himself as a regular if he wants to get more than the minimum next season.
Russell is finally now at a price tag that’s a better fit for the role he has. He’s clearly a depth defender at this point of his career and aside from shot blocks, doesn’t bring much to the table in terms of stats. Another dip is certainly possible and as he’ll be on a 35+ contract next year, it’s likely he’ll be going year to year from here on out.
Koskinen’s contract has not aged well for the Oilers as his inconsistency has limited him to a backup role at a high price tag for someone in that role. He’s off to a stronger start this season which should keep him on the NHL radar (and, for the time being at least, takes him out of the ‘Worst Value’ category) but unless he really ascends to the number one spot, he could check in closer to half of his current price tag. Stalock’s not expected to play this season due to a heart condition so at this point, it seems unlikely he’ll have a contract for next year unless he recovers and is able to return. Even at that, it’d almost certainly be a low-cost one-year pact.
Two Years Remaining
D Duncan Keith ($5.538MM, UFA)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, UFA)
F Devin Shore ($850K, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($2.2MM, UFA)
Shore did well enough last season to earn a two-year commitment to play a similar depth role for Edmonton. His spot is another one that they’ll need to keep cheap based on their salary structure and if he remains in and out of the lineup or on the fourth line, Shore won’t be able to command much more of a raise.
Keith was brought over from Chicago in the offseason in a move that raised some eyebrows in terms of whether or not that was the best use of their limited cap space. He’s playing a more limited role which is more suited to where he is at this stage of his career and is doing okay early on. Considering he’ll be turning 40 soon after reaching free agency in 2023, it’s fair to wonder if there will be another contract for him let alone how much lower it would be. Koekkoek opted to stick around after testing free agency and as a low-minute depth defender, it’s hard to imagine his price tag going up much moving forward. Klefbom is once again out for the season and on LTIR and at this point, it’s reasonable to suspect that will be the case again next year and if that happens, his career is basically over.
Smith was brought back last summer after their other attempts to upgrade between the pipes didn’t pan out. It worked out quite well for Edmonton in the end as the 39-year-old basically had his best season in almost a decade, earning him a two-year deal which is an outcome few would have expected a year and a half ago. Even if he’s just a backup over that span, that’s still below market value for a decent second-stringer so the Oilers should get good value from his deal.
Three Years Remaining
D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Warren Foegele ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($3.2MM, UFA)
Kassian’s contract was risky from the moment it was signed and the flattened Upper Limit hasn’t helped. When he’s at his best, he’s a capable top-six power forward and is well worth the money. When things aren’t going as well, he’s on the fourth line at times and isn’t close to worth it. The inconsistency makes it hard to move him and the dimension he brings has made the Oilers want to keep him. That all said, it’s difficult to envision a bigger contract in three years. Foegele came over in an offseason trade from Carolina and remains in the same type of role he had with the Hurricanes. Based on the most recent UFA market, there should be some room for a raise on Foegele’s next deal but playing in the top six more consistently would certainly bolster his chances of getting an AAV in the $3MM range.
It’s quite something how Barrie’s value has changed in recent years. In 2019, he was coming off a career year with Colorado and it looked like an inevitability that he was heading for a significant raise on his then-$5.5MM AAV. But things didn’t go well following a trade to Toronto and his market dropped, resulting in the one-year deal he had last season. Even though his production jumped back up (to even better per-game numbers than he had with the Avs), he opted to forego testing the open market again, instead inking this new deal which is still lower than his last one in Colorado. His defensive limitations are well-known but if Barrie continues to put up the points, the Oilers will get a good return on this deal.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Florida Panthers
Current Cap Hit: $82,014,416 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
G Spencer Knight (two years, $925K)
F Anton Lundell (three years, $925K)
F Eetu Luostarinen (one year, $890K)
F Owen Tippett (one year, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Knight: $1.85MM
Lundell: $850K
Tippett: $850K
Total: $3.55MM
Lundell has impressed in his early NHL action. Despite being used in a heavy defensive role, he has chipped in offensively and held his own in his own end. The fact he’s in this important of a spot on the depth chart now will certainly help his cause for his second deal; three years of being a key piece certainly looks better than being up and down which is where Tippett finds himself. Another first-round pick, Tippett hasn’t produced with much consistency in the NHL and has been up and down in the lineup with some time in the minors as well. Between that and their cap situation, he’s a strong candidate for a two-year bridge contract that buys both sides more time. Luostarinen doesn’t have the numbers to command much of a raise although his playing time (over 13 minutes a game in his two seasons with Florida) should be enough to push him over the $1MM mark.
Knight has done well since joining the Panthers late last season and it’s clear he’s their goalie of the future. Can he get enough playing time over the next two years to command starter money though? That may be iffy, especially being behind a high-priced netminder on the depth chart. Making the finances work on a long-term pact two years from now seems difficult given that Sergei Bobrovsky has five years left. As a result, a two-year bridge deal to keep the combined cost down makes sense for both sides, allowing Knight to get a bigger payday after that while Florida gets only the one season of a very pricey goalie tandem (assuming Bobrovsky is still around by then).
Both Knight and Lundell have a chance to hit some of their bonuses which is worth remembering with how tight they are to the salary cap; it creates the possibility of a carryover overage for next season.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Noel Acciari ($1.667MM, UFA)
D Kevin Connauton ($825K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($725K, UFA)
F Maxim Mamin ($975K, UFA)
F Mason Marchment ($800K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)
F Joe Thornton ($750K, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)
Vatrano has scored at least 16 goals in each of the last three seasons which certainly helps to justify his price tag but he has struggled early on this year, playing largely on the fourth line. That’s never a good sign in a walk year and could shift him from a chance of earning similar money on his next contract to having to take a bit less. That recent track record should still give him a decent market though. Acciari isn’t really the 20-goal player he was in 2018-19 but, when healthy, he’s a capable energy player but he hasn’t played this season due to an upper-body injury. The longer he sits, the more his value takes a hit. Mamin got pretty good money to come back from the KHL but has spent most of the season in the minors. He’s up now and with a one-way contract, he’s someone that could be a trade candidate if he can’t secure a regular spot. At this point, a return overseas seems likely. Marchment has turned into a bargain and is off to a nice start offensively while chipping in with plenty of physicality. While he’s a late bloomer, there will be a lot of interest if he gets to the open market and something in the $2MM range could be doable. Lomberg and Thornton are cheap end-of-roster pieces and will either be retained or replaced with someone at a similar price point next season. In Thornton’s case, it’ll probably be the latter.
Nutivaara’s value has dipped since joining Florida last year. He has been on the third pairing when healthy and is in his second stint on IR already this season. That’s a high price for a player that’s sixth or seventh on the depth chart and his next deal will reflect that and could check in at half of his current AAV. Connauton’s value is what it is at this point, a two-way contract that’s close to the minimum salary while Juolevi needs to establish himself as an NHL regular before having a chance at getting into the seven-figure range.
Two Years Remaining
D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)
Huberdeau has very quietly produced more than a point per game in each of the last three seasons and is above that rate again in the early going this season. That’s impressive production for someone that is basically being paid second-line money. With some of the recent deals handed out to elite wingers, Huberdeau could push for more than $10MM a year although it wouldn’t be surprising if Florida tries to get him slightly below the $10MM that their captain just got. Hornqvist had a bounce-back 2020-21 campaign although he’s off to a tough start this season. The style he has played over the years tends to catch up with players as they age and considering he’ll be 36 when his next contract kicks in, it’s likely to be for considerably less than his current price tag as a result.
Weegar has worked his way up from being a role player on the third pairing to a very important part of Florida’s back end. He’s logging more than 24 minutes per game early on this season – top-pairing minutes – and his offensive game has shown considerable improvement as well. This has quickly become a very team-friendly contract and if he continues at the pace he’s on, he could be looking at coming close to doubling his price tag on the open market. Gudas is the player he was when he signed this contract – a third-pairing defensive player whose intimidation factor increases his value. As long as those two things remain true, there’s no reason to think his next contract will be much different than this one.
Three Years Remaining
F Anthony Duclair ($3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($2.667MM, UFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($6.5MM, UFA)
Reinhart was Florida’s big addition over the offseason from Buffalo although they weren’t able to come to terms on a long-term agreement. Instead, he signed what amounted to another bridge deal, one that bought a couple of years of team control and both sides time to see how he fits in. Speculatively, his future could be tied to Huberdeau’s; if they re-sign him, it may be hard to fit Reinhart in as well. If he gets to the open market, he’ll be well-positioned to earn another raise. Duclair has found a home in Florida after bouncing around. As a secondary scorer, he’s in a role that suits him more than a primary piece and the offensive environment that Florida has now gives him a chance to provide some good value on that deal.
Montour bounced back last season and did well in his limited time with Florida which earned him some job security. His role has dropped this season as he’s primarily been on the third pairing but as long as he can contribute offensively, he’ll still provide a reasonable return even if he winds up being more limited at even strength than anticipated. Still just 27, there’s still time for him to work his way up the depth chart as well. Forsling has been a nice waiver claim for the Panthers as he has gone from being a depth piece to one of their top blueliners. Considering he was on waivers back in January, the price tag may seem expensive but he is outperforming that new deal so far.
PHR Mailbag: Red Wings Defense, Hertl, Maple Leafs, Sleepers, Finances
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Detroit’s back end, what Tomas Hertl’s next contract could look like, Toronto’s roster composition, under the radar minor leaguers who could make an NHL impact over the next few years, and a note on teams who may have needed financial help last season. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.
Johnny Z: Filip Hronek was healthy scratched for two games. He has been the Wings’ leader in TOI for two years and logged big minutes for the first four games. Is Stevie about to trade him? It seems plausible as his value seems very good and has three years left on his deal.
Benching a player at this time of the season is rarely for a trade. A few days before the trade deadline, sure, it’s protecting the asset but in the first few weeks, it’s to send a message. Obviously, Jeff Blashill wasn’t overly impressed with Hronek’s play and decided to get that point across early on. It seems to have worked as Hronek has been better since coming back.
You’re absolutely correct in that he would have a lot of trade value. Few others on their team have the type of value that Hronek does. But at the same time, he’s someone that should be viewed as part of their future core. On the back end, Moritz Seider looks promising, but he’s about the only one other than Hronek on the current roster that plausibly has a shot at being an impact piece when they come out of their rebuild. (Gustav Lindstrom could factor in as well but as more of a depth player than an impact one.) With that in mind, they should be looking to hold onto Hronek.
YzerPlan19: With the hole on the right side in LA and the ton of young assets they have could the Kings be a potential trade partner?
The fit that I see isn’t one that would yield one of those young assets. Hronek and Seider aren’t moving. Lindstrom is too young to be moved just yet. That takes three of the four righties on the NHL roster off the table.
Then there’s Troy Stecher, a player who has felt like a placeholder from the moment he signed with the Red Wings. He’s someone that can play on the second pairing if needed or be a minute-eater on the third pairing. That’s more of what the Kings are looking for to replace Sean Walker (since they can’t do a lot to replace Drew Doughty as he’s expected back six weeks or so from now). He’s a rental and at $1.7MM, he’s cheap enough that it would leave them enough wiggle room to afford to recall someone from the minors into the rest of Walker’s LTIR space. The on-ice fit is there and the cap fit is there.
But here’s the thing. The return isn’t going to be overly significant. I don’t think he’d land a second-rounder at the deadline so that sort of sets the baseline of a third-rounder or equivalent prospect here with maybe a late pick tacked on. That’s not the type of young asset you may have been hoping for but if they want to give Lindstrom a longer look, it’s a move that is probably worth making from Detroit’s perspective.
mz90gu: What kind of contract can Hertl expect?
This is the type of question that should probably get its own article at some point closer to free agency. Hertl has a lot going for him – he’ll only be 28 (so a max-term deal is realistic), he plays a premium position that is in high demand and short supply, and he’s played around a 70-point pace for the last few years. That’s a great combination to have heading into a walk year.
At first glance, I think Sean Couturier’s extension with Philadelphia is the ballpark of where Hertl’s deal will fall. They’re a year apart age-wise and have produced at similar extrapolated numbers over the past few seasons. Couturier has a Selke Trophy which Hertl doesn’t (and won’t get) so it’s not a perfect comparison but he’s going to get a premium if he makes it to the open market.
Couturier signed for eight years and $62MM, a $7.75MM AAV. I think Hertl’s range sandwiches that amount, falling between $7.5MM and $8MM. If he re-signs with the Sharks, the ability to add an eighth year to the contract could push the cap hit towards the lower part of that range. That said, making the cap situation work with a raise like that will be easier said than done for GM Doug Wilson.
KAR 120C: Odds that Dubas either trades one of his four or loses his job. As a result of putting 50% of the cap into four players and it not working out well (imho).
@Darrell_Samuels: ‘Simple’ question – how do you fix the Toronto Maple Leafs?
I’m going to combine these as the answers sort of go together.
Dubas will eventually lose his job – all general managers do; it’s part of the business. So I’m going to put odds on one of those things happening this season. I’ll set it at around 10%. I don’t think Toronto will move one of their ‘core four’ up front during the regular season and it’s difficult to move big contracts for full value in-season. And unless things fall completely off the rails over the next couple of months, there probably isn’t going to be an in-season GM change either.
A lot depends on whether they can get out of the first round. That’s the barometer for success this year; numbers during the regular season aren’t going to matter if they’re quickly bounced again. Before the season, I predicted they’d win a round so I’ll stick by that and if that happens, Dubas will likely stick around.
But since these questions came out, Morgan Rielly signed his new deal, one that puts another big contract on the books. I’m not sure they should try the same approach of rounding out the roster with a bunch of low-cost deals and hoping that the end result is different this time but it’s not as if they have a lot of options as their top two centers aren’t being moved.
It sounds a little counter-intuitive to say that moving a top forward is how to fix things but with how their cap is structured, it’s the only way to really change things; swapping sub-$1MM players isn’t going to move the needle much. If Mitch Marner is moved for a top-six winger making half as much as he is plus some futures, there’s the cap space to keep Jack Campbell and maybe have a bit left over to put towards upgrading one of their cheaper forwards. If they want to risk going with Petr Mrazek as the full-fledged starter and go cheap on the backup goalie, then the Marner move would give them a chance to add another middle-six piece to deepen the roster and a bit more quality depth up front.
Long term, their hope is that players like Nicholas Robertson, Rodion Amirov, and maybe someone like Alex Steeves can come in and play a regular role and lengthen the lineup. At that time, that extra offensive depth could push them over the proverbial hump; at least, that’s the plan.
Is that truly fixing things though? Not really but they’ve made this commitment and it’s a hard one to get out of. If Auston Matthews decides to walk in free agency in 2024, that would be the next opportunity to dramatically change the shape and structure of the roster. Until then, they either stick with their current direction or move a winger to give themselves a bit of wiggle room to fill other areas of the roster. If I had to guess right now, I’d lean towards sticking with the current plan so I’d put the odds of moving a winger at 45% or close to a coin flip. The next few months will be interesting on that front.