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Free Agent Focus 2021

Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Free agency is now just a few days away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Lightning have cleared a little bit of money through expansion, but still don’t have much to retain their pending free agents.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Ross Colton – At the bottom of every Stanley Cup roster, there are always a few homegrown players that provide depth for a bargain bin cost. The Lightning have proven their development system can create NHL players out of almost anyone, and they did it again for fourth-round pick Ross Colton. The 24-year-old forward had 13 goals in 53 combined games, but none bigger than the one on July 7, tapping home a David Savard pass to put the Lightning ahead of the Montreal Canadiens. It would end up being the only goal they needed, meaning whatever happens from here, Colton has a Cup-winning goal on his resume. As an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent he may deserve a slight raise, but the Lightning simply don’t have the budget for one. It will be interesting to see if they can fit him in for really anything more than the $750K league minimum at this point.

D Cal Foote – Many were surprised last week when the Seattle Kraken decided to take Yanni Gourde in expansion instead of Foote. The 22-year-old defenseman was the 14th overall pick in 2017 and made his NHL debut this year, playing 35 games during the regular season. After some deadline additions, he failed to suit up for any playoff games, but will be in the running for the third pairing again next season. In fact, with Savard and Luke Schenn both pending free agents, the Lightning have only five defensemen under contract for the 2021-22 campaign. Foote’s opportunity is right in front of him, by accepting a short-term, low-salary deal (even potentially his qualifying offer) he stands the best chance of being in the NHL lineup every day.

Other RFAs: F Alex Barre-Boulet, F Taylor Raddysh, F Otto Somppi, F Boris Katchouk, F Ryan Lohin, D Sean Day

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Blake Coleman – The value of a quality bottom-sixer is already in full view when linemate Barclay Goodrow signed a six-year, $21.85MM deal with the New York Rangers, and many would say Coleman is the better player. In fact, he might prove to be more than just a bottom-six free agent this summer, he might be the bottom-six free agent. A swiss army knife that can basically play any position on any line, Coleman has scored 13, 22, 21 and 14 goals in his four full NHL seasons, this year’s total coming in just 55 games. He can play in a scoring role, he’s one of the best penalty killers in the league, can create offense by himself thanks to blazing speed, and is physical enough to excel in the playoffs. It’s hard to not see Coleman getting a huge contract in the open market, given the term and money committed to Goodrow already. Zach Hyman–who may have some better offensive numbers thanks to his role in Toronto–is a relatively good comparison for Coleman and is on the verge of signing a seven-year deal in Edmonton.

D David Savard – Acquired at the deadline in a savvy salary cap move, Savard was exactly what the Lightning expected down the stretch and through the playoffs. Steady, quiet, play from the right side, Savard is the kind of second-pairing rock that every team could use. He doesn’t post incredible possession statistics, scored just six points this season and turns 31 in October, but you can bet there is a multi-year deal waiting for Savard that will price him out of Tampa Bay’s range. The four-year, $16MM contract that Adam Larsson signed in Seattle should be a good comparable, though the Kraken had the added benefit of negotiating against no one but Edmonton. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see Savard pass that number or even secure a longer deal after playing a key role en route to a Stanley Cup championship.

Other UFAs: F Luke Witkowski, F Boo Nieves, D Luke Schenn, D Brian Lashoff, D Ben Thomas, D Andreas Borgman, G Christopher Gibson, G Curtis McElhinney, G Anders Nilsson (retired),

Projected Cap Space

At least the Lightning are technically under the cap again after losing Gourde and seeing so many others scheduled for free agency. The team has over $80.7MM committed to just 17 players, meaning there will be more moves coming at some point. At least one and maybe two of the team’s expensive forwards will need to go, while the restricted free agents will have to sign for cheap or pack their bags. That’s the cost of putting together a two-time Stanley Cup roster, and there are drastic changes coming in Tampa Bay before the start of next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The big focus in St. Louis is on a disgruntled sniper, but there are other issues to worry about as well.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Robert Thomas – The discussion of RFAs, which is a long one in St. Louis, should start with Thomas, the 22-year-old center who showed real promise before a brutal 2020-21. In his first two NHL seasons, Thomas recorded 19 goals and 75 points in 136 games; those numbers dropped to just three goals and 12 points in 33 games this season. That’s a big step backward for the 2017 first-round pick, but it certainly doesn’t mean the Blues are giving up on him. In fact, it actually might help them in contract negotiations, at least if they’re willing to do a short-term deal. Thomas likely won’t want to lock into a long contract after such a poor offensive showing, meaning there’s even a chance that he could sign his qualifying offer and bet on himself in 2021-22. Just one year away from being arbitration-eligible, a big showing next season could set him up for a huge payday a year from now.

F Jordan Kyrou – Despite being in the same situation in terms of arbitration eligibility, Kyrou comes into this summer with very different leverage. The 23-year-old broke out this season with 14 goals and 35 points in 55 games, becoming one of the team’s most reliable offensive weapons. In fact, given his production came in limited minutes—Kyrou scored all 14 of his goals at even-strength despite averaging just over 13 minutes a night—there’s actually a good bet his scoring totals get a significant bump next season if moved full-time into the top-six (something that seems likely with the expected departure of Vladimir Tarasenko). His camp and the Blues will both know that, meaning a multi-year deal right now is probably the best bet for both sides, even if it does come with a healthy raise.

D Vince Dunn – The RFA list for St. Louis is long and also includes some other interesting forwards, but Dunn’s name is perhaps the most intriguing of all. The 24-year-old defenseman was left unprotected in the upcoming expansion draft and may end up negotiating a contract with the Kraken instead of the Blues, but either way, he’s in line for a significant raise. Signed to a one-year, $1.875MM deal in December, Dunn’s 2020-21 season certainly wasn’t smooth, but still ended up with him averaging more than 19 minutes a night. He scored six goals and 20 points in 43 games, continuing the early-career production that had him so highly coveted. Sure, there are defensive warts, but it’s difficult to find young defensemen that can drive play as well as Dunn has through his first 267 NHL games. Even if Seattle doesn’t take him, there’s a chance that the Blues aren’t the team he’s negotiating with anyway. The team has had him on the block before, and the fact that he’s arbitration-eligible makes it a tricky situation. St. Louis already has nearly $22MM tied up in their top-four defensemen, meaning they may not want to fit in whatever Dunn is awarded, should he go that route.

Other RFAs: F Ivan Barbashev, F Zach Sanford, F Jacob de La Rose, F Erik Foley, F Dakota Joshua, F Nolan Stevens, F Evan Polei, G Evan Fitzpatrick

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Jaden Schwartz – Sometimes overlooked when discussing the Blues’ key players over the past several years, Schwartz has been a consistent offensive producer for quite a while. That is, of course, until the 2020-21 campaign, where he scored just eight goals and 21 points in 40 games. That is a per-game rate much worse than six of the previous seven seasons, which included four 20+ goal campaigns and five in which Schwartz scored at least 55 points. The one season that lines up with that kind of production? 2018-19, when Schwartz had just 36 points in 69 games but then showed up in the playoffs, helping the team to a Stanley Cup. In short, he’s coming off the worst year of his career at the most inopportune time, as he looks for a big payday in free agency. His history will certainly drive interest, but buyer beware with the 29-year-old forward, who has faced some sort of injury nearly every season of his career.

F Mike Hoffman – If you want a weapon for your powerplay, look no further than Hoffman, who had another seven goals with the man-advantage even in the shortened 2020-21 campaign. Even if he doesn’t contribute a ton in the defensive zone, the term “instant offense” applies to the 31-year-old winger. The market was weak enough in last year’s uncertain market that Hoffman accepted a one-year, $4MM deal to go to St. Louis, but it’s hard to imagine him taking that kind of a contract this time around. He’s going to score, you can be sure of it, but he doesn’t exactly play the style that Blues head coach Craig Berube has become known for, and will turn 32 in November. A multi-year deal is a risk, but one that someone will likely take this summer.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Bozak, F Alex Steen (retired), F Curtis McKenzie, F Nathan Walker, F Austin Poganski, D Mitch Reinke, G Jon Gillies

Projected Cap Space

With all those free agents off the books, you’d think the Blues would have a ton of cap space to work with. Well, not exactly, at least until they move Tarasenko out. The team currently sits $17.4MM under the cap ceiling, but a good chunk of that will have to be given out to the restricted free agents that remain. The team only has eight forwards signed to one-way deals, and though young players like Klim Kostin will likely push for spots, there’s lots of work to do for GM Doug Armstrong to fill out the roster.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: San Jose Sharks

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. It’s been nothing but pain in San Jose the last few years as they try and navigate huge contracts to aging stars.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Ryan Donato – Donato has failed to live up to expectations for three different NHL teams now, following his first year in San Jose. The Harvard product that set the hockey world on fire in 2018, scoring three points in his first game and nine in his first twelve now has just 77 in 180 career matches. In 50 games with the Sharks this season he scored six times and registered 20 points despite ample powerplay time and relatively easy deployment. He’s clearly an NHL talent, but it doesn’t look like Donato is ever going to be the consistent top-six contributor that many expected coming out of college. An arbitration-eligible free agent coming off a $1.9MM cap hit, there’s actually a chance he doesn’t even get qualified by the Sharks.

F Rudolfs Balcers – Balcers on the other hand will, even after registering just eight goals and 17 points in 41 games. The key part of Balcers game is his ability to contribute defensively as well as in the offensive zone, and he was rewarded with increased playing time down the stretch. In fact, Balcers had all but replaced other more recognizable names like Kevin Labanc by the end of the year, even moving ahead of Timo Meier on some nights. It seems likely that the Sharks will explore a multi-year deal with the young forward, if only to lock him in at a low number before giving him a bigger role on the team. If not, he is also arbitration-eligible but doesn’t have the counting stats to earn a huge raise through that process.

Other RFAs: F Noah Gregor, F Joachim Blichfeld, F Alexander True, D Christian Jaros

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Kurtis Gabriel – You might look at the five career points that Gabriel has and wonder why he would be included in a free agent list, but from all accounts, the physical winger has a market waiting for him. Gabriel was given permission to talk to other teams already according to a report from Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet last month, meaning he could go quick on day one of the frenzy if the Sharks aren’t going to retain him. Now 28, the 6’4″ enforcer racked up 55 penalty minutes in 11 games this season, including 19 in his final game of the year.

F Patrick Marleau – The ageless wonder is an unrestricted free agent once again and suggested at the end of the season that he would like to play again in 2021-22. Marleau passed Gordie Howe for first place on the all-time games played list, though some still point out that he doesn’t have the true record. Though the 41-year-old Marleau has now played the most regular season games in history, he’s still 18 games behind Mark Messier for the most NHL appearances including playoffs. With a full season, Marleau could become the first person to ever play in more than 2,000 combined NHL games, as he currently sits at 1,974. He doesn’t add much these days, but having Marleau break that record in any other sweater certainly wouldn’t feel right.

Other UFAs: F Marcus Sorensen, F Maxim Letunov, D Greg Pateryn

Projected Cap Space

The team has struggled, they only have 16 players under contact and yet San Jose still has just over $9.2MM in cap space to spend this summer. The money owed to the quintet of Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM AAV), Brent Burns ($8MM), Logan Couture ($8MM), Evander Kane ($7MM), and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM) cripples any chance of making significant changes, and none of those contracts will be off the books until at least 2025. It’s hard to see the Sharks making a big splash on the open market unless they find a way to rid themselves of at least one of those veteran players.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Pittsburgh took care of one notable free agent today but they still have some regulars in need of new contracts.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Zach Aston-Reese – The 26-year-old was a highly sought-after college free agent back in 2017 and while he hasn’t emerged as a big scoring threat, Aston-Reese has become a valuable checker for the Penguins, holding down a regular spot on the roster for the last two seasons.  He had a career-high nine goals in 45 games this season while chipping in with a pair of points in six playoff games, numbers that aren’t going to command a sizable raise.  His qualifying offer is $1MM and even though he’s eligible for salary arbitration, the potential for a hearing isn’t too much of a risk.  Aston-Reese is in line for a small raise but it shouldn’t break the bank for a Penguins team that is already pretty tight to the cap.

F Mark Jankowski – After being non-tendered by Calgary back in the fall, Jankowski opted to take a league minimum contract in the hopes that a new environment in Pittsburgh would help to boost his value.  That didn’t exactly happen.  By the end of the year, he was a frequent healthy scratch and managed to post just 11 points.  While that was still an upgrade on his final season with the Flames, it was still well short of expectations.  Even though the 26-year-old is only owed a qualifying offer of the league minimum, it seems quite likely that the 21st pick from 2012 will be looking for a new home at the end of the month.

Other RFAs: F Kasper Bjorkqvist, G Emil Larmi, D Jesper Lindgren, F Sam Miletic, F Radim Zohorna

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Cody Ceci – Another player that looked to Pittsburgh to restore some value, Ceci was able to do just that as he quickly became an important piece on the third pairing.  He chipped in a bit offensively with 17 points in 53 games while logging over 18 minutes a night.  Those numbers don’t jump off the charts but after being miscast in a top-four role with Ottawa and Toronto, Ceci fared much better with a more limited role.  GM Ron Hextall indicated a desire to re-sign the veteran recently but acknowledged that they will need to trim payroll to do so.  After playing on a $1.25MM deal this past season, the 27-year-old has earned a small raise but barring the Penguins clearing out a pricey contract, it looks like Ceci will have to go elsewhere to get that pay increase.

F Evan Rodrigues – After Pittsburgh traded him to Toronto back in August, he wound up being non-tendered and went back for a second stint with the Penguins.  This one went a little better even though it got off to a rocky start when he landed on LTIR early in the season.  Overall, he saw considerable action on the third line and averaged just over 14 minutes per game while chipping in with seven goals and seven assists in 35 games.  He’s not looking at a significant raise from the $700K he made this season but another couple hundred thousand could be doable.

F Frederick Gaudreau – This one may seem like a surprise.  Gaudreau is 27 and had eight career NHL points heading into this season.  He only played in 19 games this season but very quietly put up ten points, earning himself a regular spot in the lineup in the playoffs.  Are there teams that will give him a shot at a full-time roster spot based on his strong two months?  If so, there should be a fair bit of interest in his services.

Other UFAs: D Kevin Czuczman, G Maxime Lagace, F Colton Sceviour

Projected Cap Space

Well, there really isn’t a lot.  Today’s deal with Teddy Blueger takes Pittsburgh within $1MM of the Upper Limit of the salary cap with at least one more forward to sign to fill out the roster.  That’s not even enough to re-sign Aston-Reese so some work will need to be done.  If Seattle takes a higher-priced player, Hextall would have some wiggle room to play with but otherwise, it could be a fairly quiet summer for the Penguins.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Things aren’t completely off the rails in Philadelphia after a disappointing season, but there are some big decisions to be made on the direction of the franchise. 

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Nolan Patrick – Can Patrick overcome his injury issues and become a core piece for the Flyers? Some have already labeled the 2017 second-overall pick as a bust and have written him off completely, while others believe with time and patience he could still become a valuable asset. Philadelphia’s front office is going to need to make that decision this summer as Patrick enters restricted free agency once again, this time coming off a brutal performance. Last summer, the young forward was negotiating a deal after missing the entire 2019-20 season due to a migraine issue and ended up signing for his qualifying offer amount. Given that he’s still ineligible for arbitration and scored just nine points in 52 games, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that. If anything, it seems like a change of scenery might benefit both parties, as long as the Flyers received something valuable in return. There’s a lot of work to do for the 22-year-old forward to prove he can still be even a middle-six center at the NHL level, let alone the star he was supposed to be.

D Travis Sanheim – There’s a trend in these RFA cases for the Flyers, as all of them are players that were supposed to be key contributors this season but ended up having down years. Sanheim was supposed to step into a bigger role for the team in his fourth season and build off the success he had in the past. Instead, he recorded just 15 points in 55 games and registered the worst possession stats of his career. That’s not to say Sanheim is playing his way off the team, quite the opposite, as he has established a spot on the second pair, but the breakout that was expected never came. His last deal, a two-year contract in 2019 worth $6.5MM total, was supposed to be a bridge to a big RFA deal this summer. But how big can the Flyers really go for a player that, while valuable, hasn’t improved much over the last two seasons. An interesting option for both sides might even be arbitration, giving Sanheim a one-year deal at a slightly higher number. It would leave him just a year from unrestricted free agency, but also give him a chance to show he still does have some of that top-pairing upside left in him.

G Carter Hart – Speaking of players coming off down years, it’s hard to know just how much money Hart cost himself this season. The 22-year-old goaltender is still the future in Philadelphia, but after posting an .877 save percentage in 27 appearances, just nine of them wins, he’s suddenly a risky investment. If the Flyers try to get a multi-year contract done with the young netminder, it will have to be on a contract that makes sense even if he fails to take back the workhorse role. There’s no way they can invest starter money in Hart after a season like that, and they won’t have to, given he’s not yet eligible for arbitration. Philadelphia could slow play this if they want, and force Hart to accept a short-term deal around his qualifying offer, but they could also try to lock him in for a few years at a depressed price, betting on a rebound. It’s a tough situation for the player side too, not wanting to throw away too much earning potential, but also knowing that his role in the organization could be in jeopardy with another bad season or two.

Other RFAs: F Pascal Laberge, F Connor Bunnaman, F David Kase

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Samuel Morin – It’s tough to watch Morin now, knowing that there was so much potential in that 6’6″ frame when the Flyers selected him 11th overall in 2013. Though his size and physicality were always the focus, the drastically improved skating of Morin was supposed to translate into a true shutdown defender for Philadelphia. Multiple major knee surgeries later and Morin was forced to make the switch to forward, claiming he wanted to be the next Matt Martin, offering a simple game but adding physicality to the lineup every night. It didn’t pan out, and Morin played just 20 games this season, recording a single goal (his NHL first) and 38 hits. A positionless part-time enforcer is not what 11th overall picks usually turn out to be, and now Morin hits Group VI UFA status with no clear future.

G Brian Elliott – Hart was bad and Elliott wasn’t much better this season, posting his second straight year with a save percentage under .900. It’s been a long career for the 36-year-old goaltender and from all accounts, he is beloved in Philadelphia, but the team desperately needs some consistency in net moving forward. There will be many other options for the team to go after this summer, even if the focus is still on Hart getting back to his early performance. If the team comes back with the same duo, it’s hard to expect different results at this point.

Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, D Matt Niskanen (retired), D Derrick Pouliot, D Tyler Wotherspoon, D Nate Prosser, D Chris Bigras, G Alex Lyon

Projected Cap Space

With more than $68.4MM committed to 17 players, the Flyers have just over $13MM left to work with this offseason. That could grow substantially if they can convince the Seattle Kraken to take Jakub Voracek or trade him elsewhere, but for now they don’t have a ton of money to work with. Remember, captain Claude Giroux and top center Sean Couturier are both pending unrestricted free agents after this season and will need extensions if the Flyers want to keep them around, meaning any long-term money they spend in free agency will have to be done with careful consideration.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Rangers are more concerned with the latter than the former, with few impending UFAs of note but quite a few impact RFAs.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Pavel Buchnevich – Buchnevich is one of four of the Rangers’ top-twelve scoring forwards without a contract for next season, alongside Chytil, Gauthier, and Di Giuseppe, but is by far the most important. Buchnevich finished third in per-game scoring for New York this year, behind only stars Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. His 48 points were two more than his 2019-20 total, but in 14 fewer games. Buchnevich’s consistent scoring paired with his defensive improvements and success on both special teams units led to an increase in ice time to 18:44 per game, top line minutes again behind only Zibanejad and Panarin. Buchnevich timed this breakout year well; the 26-year-old forward is now a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. This is not an aberration either, as Buchnevich has shown steady improvement throughout his career and is firmly established as a top-six forward with 20-goal and 50-point regularity. The Rangers will have no choice but to pay up, short-term or long-term, with an unfavorable arbitration decision, not to mention the animosity created by the process, as a looming threat.

G Igor Shesterkin – The Rangers may have two young goaltenders in the pros and a multitude of talented prospects in the pipeline, but make no mistake: Shesterkin is invaluable. The 25-year-old netminder has only played in 47 games across two seasons since coming over from the KHL, but has been superb with a .921 save percentage, 2.59 GAA, and a .611 points percentage in his decisions for a team that has played at a .552 clip over the past two years. Shesterkin is the best of the bunch in net in New York and the Rangers need to lock him up on a multi-year deal, regardless of his lack of NHL experience. Shesterkin’s arbitration eligibility ensures that they will have to pay him fairly as well. Shesterkin is close to unrestricted free agency and the worst thing the team could do is sign what looks to be a solid NHL starter to a short-term deal (or settle for an arbitration decision) only to see him continue to perform or even improve and then price himself out of town.

Other RFAs: F Filip Chytil, D Brandon Crawley, F Gabriel Fontaine, F Julien Gauthier, F Tim Gettinger, D Libor Hajek, G Adam Huska, F Patrick Newell, F Ty Ronning, D Yegor Rykov

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Brendan Smith – It wasn’t long ago that Smith’s contract was one of the most criticized in the NHL as he was buried in the minors in the first season of a four-year, $17.4MM deal with the Rangers. In the years since, he has somewhat recovered to become a good albeit still overpaid depth defenseman for New York. Smith has played in over 80% of the Rangers’ games over the past three seasons since his abysmal debut season, providing physicality and defensive stability and, for the first time in 2020-21, more secure puck-handling and a hint more offense. With a deep stable of talented young defensemen, the Rangers don’t need Smith. However, they could do far worse than someone with versatility, checking ability, and veteran experience as a depth option. He would come much cheaper this time around as well, as Smith is unlikely to have a competitive market as a free agent.

F Phil Di Giuseppe – At 27 years old with only 201 career games and 53 career points, Di Giuseppe has not much more than a depth option during his time in the NHL and likely won’t be. However, he proved to be valuable in that role in two seasons with New York, playing a gritty checking game and contributing some modest offense. Di Giuseppe’s success as a plug-and-play bottom-six forward is not limited to his time with the Rangers either, as some of his best seasons were playing the same role with the Carolina Hurricanes. As an affordable extra man, Di Giuseppe has value to the Rangers as an extension candidate, but he may be on the lookout for more opportunity rather than staying on a New York roster that is deep in young players in need of ice time and hoping to add more veterans this off-season.

Other UFAs: D Jack Johnson, D Darren Raddysh

Projected Cap Space

While Buchnevich and Shesterkin will earn considerable deals this summer and Chytil is deserving of a sizeable raise as well, the Rangers remain in good shape with the salary cap. They currently project to have $22.89MM in cap space with 18 players on the NHL roster, but that includes third-string goaltender Keith Kinkaid and cap charge for defenseman Anthony DeAngelo, who will be traded or at worst bought out in the off-season. A more accurate projection is closer to $25.5MM with 17 players on the roster. New deals for Gauthier, Hajek, and possibly Smith or Di Giuseppe (or replacements) should come cheap, leaving plenty of room to re-sign the key trio of RFA’s with room to spare to add another impact forward or two.

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. A Predators legend is a UFA, but there are other, perhaps more important names for the Nashville front office to focus on.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Eeli Tolvanen – After dominating the KHL in 2017-18, many expected Tolvanen to step into the NHL as a superstar. That wasn’t even close to the case as the young sniper failed to even make the team the following season, spending two full years at the minor league level. In 2020-21 though, the Predators started to see a return on their investment, with Tolvanen eventually taking over a spot in the top-six. His development made Viktor Arvidsson expendable and should mean he is in line for even more responsibility next season. Now comes a negotiation and if GM David Poile is known for anything, it’s locking up players he believes are core pieces to long-term deals right away. Ineligible for arbitration, the only real leverage Tolvanen has is the threat of the KHL, meaning he should come back for a reasonable price unless the team starts buying out UFA time on a max-term deal.

D Dante Fabbro – Will Fabbro even be negotiating a contract with the Predators? Nashville will need to go the eight-skater protection route in the expansion draft in order to keep him away from Seattle, unless another deal is worked out in the next few weeks. If they do find a way to keep the 23-year-old defenseman, he’ll need a new contract this summer as an arbitration-eligible RFA. Fabbro is only coming off his entry-level deal, but since he signed as a 21-year-old and played ten games in his first season (including his six playoff games) he has already completed the three professional years that arbitration required.

G Juuse Saros – Don’t forget about Saros, who is also an RFA after taking complete control of the starting role this season. The 26-year-old netminder posted a .927 save percentage and finished sixth in Vezina Trophy voting, truly establishing himself among the league’s elite goaltenders. That kind of performance certainly came in a timely fashion for Saros, who is scheduled for unrestricted free agency next summer and could be in for a huge payday this year. If the Predators want to lock him up long-term, he’ll be getting much more than the $1.5MM he has earned in each of the last three years. If he decides to go to arbitration, a one-year deal would walk him right to the open market.

Other RFAs: F Mathieu Olivier, F Michael McCarron, F Anthony Richard, F Rem Pitlick, F Josh Wilkins, F Tanner Jeannot, F Lukas Craggs, F Cole Smith, D Ben Harpur,  D Frederic Allard, D Jeremy Davies, D Josh Healey

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Mikael Granlund – The veteran forward entered the UFA market last offseason as a top name, but ended up settling for just a one-year deal in Nashville after seeing the limited flat-cap market. He still earned a solid paycheck at $3.75MM, but is now another year older and enters free agency with more question marks. Granlund has never seemed to fit perfectly in Nashville, unable to reach the offensive heights that he found in Minnesota, and now has just 62 points in 130 games since arriving in 2019–he scored 47 goals and 136 points over his best two-year period with the Wild. Is his time as a play-driving top-six talent gone? Can he still play center on a full-time basis? It will be tough for a team to offer a long-term deal without knowing the answers to those questions, but it doesn’t really make sense for Nashville to bring him back unless it’s on another reasonable short-term contract.

D Pekka Rinne – 683 regular season games. 19,225 shots faced. 369 wins. 60 shutouts. These are all franchise records that Rinne holds for the Predators after 15 years with the organization, but a tough decision will be coming for Poile and the Nashville front office. Rinne is now 38 and has a .900 save percentage over his past two seasons. He had a losing record this year and isn’t the Vezina-winning goaltender he once was. Some would expect that means it’s the Predators or retirement, but when their season ended Rinne explained that he didn’t “want to close any doors.” Seeing the veteran netminder in any other colors would certainly be shocking, but at some point, the Predators are going to have to move on, whether he’s ready to call it quits or not.

Other UFAs: F Brad Richardson, F Erik Haula, F Sean Malone, F Michael Carcone, D Erik Gudbranson, D Luca Sbisa, D Tyler Lewington

Projected Cap Space

After moving Arvidsson’s contract the Predators have nearly $23MM in cap space to work with this summer, but a lot of that could be eaten up just by their restricted free agents. The expansion draft could provide some additional cap relief depending on who the Kraken decide to take, but it will be tough to really dole out a ton of money on the open market.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Minnesota has been busy in recent days with some re-signings but still has two impact RFAs and several veteran UFAs in need of new contracts.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kirill Kaprizov – Technically speaking, Kaprizov doesn’t even qualify for restricted free agency as he doesn’t have enough service time to qualify to be tendered an offer sheet but he needs a new deal nevertheless.  Minnesota is believed to have already made a long-term offer to the 24-year-old but such a contract doesn’t appear to be to Kaprizov’s liking.  Something shorter-term that sets him up for a new deal in a more favorable cap environment while being in the prime of his career would be preferable on his part though not for the Wild.  With Kaprizov not having arbitration rights either, his leverage is limited to stalling in the hopes of getting a better offer from Minnesota so this is a deal that could be slow-played longer into the summer.  Regardless of how long it takes, he will make substantially more than the $925K base salary (which includes the signing bonus) he made on his entry-level deal this season.

F Kevin Fiala – Despite the last two seasons being shortened by the pandemic, the winger has reached the 20-goal mark each time for only the second and third time of his career.  Fiala has settled in nicely with the Wild after being acquired back at the 2019 trade deadline in exchange for Mikael Granlund.  The 24-year-old has arbitration eligibility for the first time and is two years away from reaching unrestricted free agency.  If a long-term deal is worked out that buys out some of those UFA-eligible years, Fiala may have a shot at doubling the $3MM AAV he had on his bridge contract.  Worth noting, his qualifying offer stands a little higher than that at $3.5MM.

Other RFAs: F Will Bitten, F Brandon Duhaime, F Mason Shaw

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bonino – Statistically speaking, Bonino had a similar season on a points per game basis compared to his time with Nashville (who traded him to Minnesota last fall).  At this stage of his career, he’s best served as a third-line center and as someone who is routinely above average at the faceoff dot, he should have considerable interest on the open market.  However, spending on the bottom six dried up last summer and with the cap staying flat, that’s likely to continue this summer.  Accordingly, it would be surprising to see the 33-year-old match the $4.1MM AAV he got from the Predators in his last trip to free agency back in 2017.

F Marcus Johansson – Last season didn’t go well for Johansson as he managed just six goals and eight assists in 36 games.  However, he had two straight 30-point seasons before that and going back to his time in Washington, he had five seasons of 44 or more points.  There’s a track record of offensive success in the right environment.  He was patient two years ago and landed a two-year, $9MM contract from Buffalo but he won’t have a shot at that this time around.  However, he’s an intriguing middle-six option out there, especially if he’s open to a one-year contract to try to boost his value and show he has something left in the tank.

D Ian Cole – The veteran was acquired early in the season to stabilize their third pairing and he did just that, logging nearly 16 minutes a night over 52 games while providing plenty of physicality.  Cole should have a decent-sized market this summer but it will be in that limited capacity, not as a top-four player which is how he was able to sell himself three years ago in free agency when he managed to land a $4.25MM price tag.  Half of that may be the ceiling this time around.

Other UFAs: D Matt Bartkowski, D Louis Belpedio, F Joseph Cramarossa, F Gabriel Dumont, G Andrew Hammond, D Brad Hunt, F Luke Johnson, D Ian McCoshen, D Dakota Mermis, F Kyle Rau

Projected Cap Space

Minnesota finds themselves with just under $16MM in cap space which may sound like a lot at first but a significant chunk of that will need to be allocated to Kaprizov and Fiala.  By the time they fill out their roster with some depth players, that will basically be it for summer spending.  As a result, if GM Bill Guerin wants to add a significant piece to his roster, that will likely have to come via the trade route.  If that doesn’t happen, it could be a relatively quiet summer for the Wild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Los Angeles Kings

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Kings have already done a lot of their offseason work, unrestricted free agency isn’t really even an issue for them in the coming weeks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Andreas Athanasiou – What the heck is Athanasiou? Is he the 30-goal scorer from 2018-19, the mess that went unqualified in Edmonton, or the 40-point-pace utility knife that he showed this season? If the Kings want to find out, they could be taking the risk of arbitration awarding Athanasiou a hefty contract. The 26-year-old could settle for a one-year deal in the arbitration process and head to unrestricted free agency a year from now if the Kings decide to issue him a qualifying offer. If he were to sign a multi-year extension, it would be something new for Athanasiou, who has only ever played on one- or two-year deals since his entry-level contract expired.

F Trevor Moore – Talk about work ethic. Moore has climbed all the way from undrafted college free agent to full-time NHL forward, setting career-highs in goals (10), points (23), and games played (56) this season. Coming off a two-year deal that carried an average annual value of just $775K, the 26-year-old winger is looking at a raise, even if it won’t be a huge one.

F Lias Andersson – Signing a 22-year-old restricted free agent with just 89 NHL games to his name usually isn’t a big issue, but nothing has ever come simply with Andersson. The seventh-overall pick from the 2017 draft, Andersson exercised his European Assignment Clause for the New York Rangers in his first season and left North America altogether during the 2019-20 season. This year he split time between HV71, the Kings, and the Ontario Reign, but does look like he should have an inside track for a full-time roster spot come next season. Andersson isn’t arbitration-eligible, meaning the Kings could wait and force him to sign his qualifying offer (or an offer sheet) if he wants to play in the NHL this season, meaning the only leverage he really has is the threat of another return to Europe.

Other RFAs: F Matt Luff, F Bokondji Imama, F Michael Eyssimont, F Drake Rymsha, D Kale Clague, D Jacob Moverare, D Austin Strand

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

D Christian Wolanin – Impressively, the Kings have just four UFAs left to sign, and Wolanin is the only one that played more than two games for Los Angeles this season. He played three. There’s not really much to say about the Group VI UFA, other than he could be a potential depth piece for the Kings next season. He played 15 games with the Senators before being traded at the end of March. During his three games with the Kings, he failed to record a point.

G Troy Grosenick – Grosenick certainly isn’t a must-sign goaltender, but like any team, the Kings will have to address their depth at the position this summer. They do have a pair of interesting prospects, but a veteran third-stringer like Grosenick should probably be brought in just for emergency situations. The 31-year-old did play two games this season, posting a .922 save percentage. That took his career total to four appearances.

Other UFAs: D Mark Alt, D Daniel Brickley

Projected Cap Space

After acquiring Viktor Arvidsson earlier this month, the Kings now have just under $15.5MM in cap space heading into the summer. With so few players to re-sign that’s a good amount for the free agent market, but it doesn’t mean the team can spend it haphazardly. If their young players develop as expected, there will be big extensions to come down the pipe in the next few years, meaning they’ll need cap space to fit everyone in. Remember, the trio of Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick still combine for a cap hit of nearly $27MM the next two seasons (with Doughty’s deal stretching much further than that). Adding free agents makes sense, adding long-term money might not.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  No one would have expected that one of the most interesting UFA in Florida would be a goalie, but after more struggles from their expensive starter, that’s exactly what has happened.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Sam Bennett – The Panthers’ big trade deadline addition fit in perfectly after moving to the east coast. Bennett scored more goals and points in 10 games for the Panthers than he did in 38 for the Calgary Flames, and then was once again added his strong postseason performance. The 25-year-old now has 12 goals and 24 points in 35 career playoff games, scoring at a near 30-goal pace despite never totaling more than 18 in a single regular season. One reason for the added point production in Florida? Bennett saw his average ice time increase by nearly five minutes per night as he plugged into the top-six immediately. There’s no doubt he will be looking for a raise on the $2.55MM cap hit he has carried for the last two seasons, but the Panthers are actually in an interesting position. Bennett’s counting stats were so poor in Calgary—he averaged just 25 points over his first five seasons—that his arbitration case wouldn’t be very strong. If Florida wanted to, they could go that route and try to squeeze as much excess value as they can on a short-term deal.

D – Gustav Forsling – Forsling played in 122 games for the Chicago Blackhawks between 2016-2019, recording just 27 points. He averaged just over 17 minutes a game during those years, moving in and out of the lineup as a depth option. Then in 2019-20 he played the entire season in the minor leagues, suiting up 57 times for the Charlotte Checkers. Why is he an important RFA? Because there was a real breakout this season for the 25-year-old defenseman, with 17 points in 43 games and an average TOI of nearly 20 minutes. In fact in the playoffs, Forsling averaged 21:29 in six games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, scoring a goal and two points in the process. With veteran defenders being phased in Florida, there will be a chance for Forsling to establish himself as a core piece over the next few seasons. A multi-year contract could be in order, to provide some security for player and team.

Other RFAs: F Anthony Duclair, F Lucas Wallmark, F Juho Lammikko, F Patrick Bajkov, F Brad Morrisson, D Noah Juulsen, D Jake Massie, D Lucas Carlsson, D Chase Priskie, D Alec Rauhauser, G Sam Montembeault, G Ryan Bednard

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Alexander Wennberg – Speaking of having a career resurrected in Sunrise, Wennberg experienced an explosion in goal scoring in his first year for the Panthers. After racking up just 40 goals in 415 games for the Columbus Blue Jackets, the playmaking center scored 17 times in 56 games this season for Florida. No, his insane 20% shooting percentage won’t continue, but Wennberg and the Panthers were a perfect fit this season. GM Bill Zito obviously knows him very well from their time together in Columbus and an extension seems likely here if a reasonable number can be found. Still just 26, Wennberg’s representatives are surely patting themselves on the back for taking the one-year “rebound” deal in Florida before setting their sights on something longer this time around.

D Brandon Montour – The career shifts continued with Montour, who arrived in Florida through a trade with the Buffalo Sabres and immediately found more success when insulated by better teammates. It’s hard to know what his ceiling is at this point, given how drastically his performance has varied throughout the first few years of his career, but make no mistake there are many characteristics of Montour’s game that will be appealing to NHL teams this summer. He just turned 27, he’s right-handed, and has shown an ability to drive play and contribute to the powerplay in the past. Though he had just four points in 12 games with the Panthers, Montour’s possession numbers rebounded and he looked a lot closer to the player that racked up multiple 30+ point seasons in the past. Unfortunately, some of the downsides appeared again in the playoffs, when Montour was outmatched in his own end and saw his minutes reduced dramatically in several games. Is he a reliable top-four option moving forward? That certainly is still to be seen.

G Chris Driedger – The Panthers had two starting-level goaltenders on their team at the end of this season, and neither one was Sergei Bobrovsky. Driedger just simply outperformed Bobrovsky at every turn, racking up a .927 save percentage in 23 appearances, his second straight year of strong goaltending in backup/tandem role. That’s going to generate a lot of interest on the open market, given the fact that he’s just 27 and still likely won’t command a huge salary after playing the last two years on a two-way deal. There’s no guarantee that Driedger can continue to perform at this level on an increased workload (see: Scott Darling), but with Spencer Knight ready to contribute, it’s going to be near-impossible for the Panthers to bring the free agent goaltender back unless they somehow rid themselves of Bobrovsky’s $10MM cap hit.

Other UFAs: F Nikita Gusev, F Scott Wilson, D Tommy Cross, D Ethan Prow, D Brady Keeper, G Phillippe Desrosiers

Projected Cap Space

The Panthers have a lot of work to do and not that much cap space to do it. The team currently sits at just over $13.1MM of projected space, but if they were to part ways with veteran players like Keith Yandle or Anton Stralman, they could open up some extra room. Perhaps more important to note is the situation for next year, when Aleksander Barkov is scheduled for unrestricted free agency. The Panthers have been benefiting from his extremely undervalued $5.9MM cap hit the last several years but will have to give him a hefty raise to keep him in Florida. The open market awaits Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar just two years from now, meaning there will have to be a full plan in place by Zito and company this summer before they sign any long-term deals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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