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Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Poll: Which Team Had The Best Free Agent Frenzy?

August 1, 2021 at 4:10 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 15 Comments

After nearly $800MM in contracts was handed out on the first day of free agency, and another $133MM the next, things have finally started to quiet down. Just 14 of our top 50 free agents are still available, and several of those names are expected to already be in agreement with the New York Islanders–who will release contract details when they’re good and ready.

Though a few more deals may come down the pipe, the true difference-makers are almost all spoken for. So who had the best free agent frenzy?

The Boston Bruins were unable to convince David Krejci to return, with the veteran forward deciding to head back to the Czech Republic instead, but they still had a pretty impressive haul. Nick Foligno, Erik Haula, Linus Ullmark, Derek Forbort, and Tomas Nosek all should figure into their NHL plans for next season, giving the team some pretty impressive depth options behind the still-imposing core.

The New Jersey Devils added the best player on the market in Dougie Hamilton, bringing in a veteran goaltender in Jonathan Bernier as well. That young core will now be asked to turn the corner from rebuilding to contender, given how much money the front office doled out. The Carolina Hurricanes meanwhile used the space created by Hamilton’s departure to add several players, including a brand new goalie tandem of Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta. Fan-favorite Jordan Martinook is also back after seeing what else was out there on the open market.

Ryan Suter may already be 36, but he was chased by several teams before the Dallas Stars landed him on a four-year deal. Dallas also brought in Braden Holtby, Luke Glendening, Jani Hakanpaa and Michael Raffl in a strong showing. While that certainly doesn’t make their roster any younger, it does provide some added depth to a team that was in the Stanley Cup Final in 2020.

The Edmonton Oilers spent a lot of money, bringing in Zach Hyman, Cody Ceci, and Derek Ryan, while re-signing Tyson Barrie, but some will still argue they aren’t improved enough. Time will tell on the decision to go back to a Mike Smith–Mikko Koskinen goaltending tandem while spending the cap space elsewhere–unless of course, GM Ken Holland makes a trade to further solidify the crease.

Adding David Savard, Mike Hoffman, Cedric Paquette and Mathieu Perreault to a roster in Montreal that just made the finals will excite fans, but the Canadiens were also forced to bid adieu to Philipp Danault. It’s tough to know if Montreal has done enough to contend for the Stanley Cup again, or if the loss of captain Shea Weber will be devastating to their overall play.

There are several other teams who could be in the mix for the “winners”, including the Seattle Kraken who shelled out more than $75MM on three players, and the St. Louis Blues who replaced some outgoing talent by signing Brandon Saad on day two, but who do you think had the best free agent frenzy? Cast your vote below and make sure to leave a comment explaining your thoughts.

Which team had the best free agent frenzy?
Boston Bruins 13.96% (239 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks 8.53% (146 votes)
New Jersey Devils 8.18% (140 votes)
Seattle Kraken 6.72% (115 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 6.54% (112 votes)
Montreal Canadiens 5.90% (101 votes)
Edmonton Oilers 4.79% (82 votes)
St. Louis Blues 4.15% (71 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 3.91% (67 votes)
New York Rangers 3.45% (59 votes)
Dallas Stars 3.27% (56 votes)
Philadelphia Flyers 3.27% (56 votes)
Winnipeg Jets 3.21% (55 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 2.98% (51 votes)
Toronto Maple Leafs 2.98% (51 votes)
Carolina Hurricanes 2.51% (43 votes)
New York Islanders 2.22% (38 votes)
Calgary Flames 1.58% (27 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 1.40% (24 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 1.34% (23 votes)
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.34% (23 votes)
Minnesota Wild 1.23% (21 votes)
Colorado Avalanche 1.11% (19 votes)
Florida Panthers 1.11% (19 votes)
Buffalo Sabres 0.99% (17 votes)
Washington Capitals 0.70% (12 votes)
Pittsburgh Penguins 0.64% (11 votes)
Vegas Golden Knights 0.64% (11 votes)
Ottawa Senators 0.53% (9 votes)
San Jose Sharks 0.47% (8 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 0.18% (3 votes)
Nashville Predators 0.18% (3 votes)
Total Votes: 1,712

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Polls Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

15 comments

PHR’s 2021 Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents

July 31, 2021 at 4:30 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 45 Comments

Originally published on July 27

It’s been quite the offseason already. The expansion draft caused a flurry of trades last week, with teams frantically moving pieces around to try and deny Seattle any valuable assets. As soon as the transaction freeze was lifted teams started making moves again, with star players finding new homes all around the league. Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury are in Chicago, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is in Vancouver, Ryan Ellis is in Philadelphia and we haven’t even reached free agency yet.

Now, as we wait for tomorrow’s frenzy, the focus is squarely on the free agent market. Wednesday afternoon a huge number of players will hit the open market, able to pursue money and glory with a new team. There are first-line players and award winners available, along with plenty of depth options. With a flat cap once again, teams will have to carefully decide which veteran to pay and which to let go.

After giving teams plenty of time to announce extensions (and announce them they did), it’s time to unveil our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agent List. The rankings were voted on by the PHR writing team, based on a combination of talent and projected demand, not necessarily their total dollar amounts. This year’s group is headlined by a long-time captain and a Norris Trophy contender, along with a few of the key players from the Stanley Cup Finals.

All predictions are independent and have no bearing on each other, while each player is presumed to be signing a one-way contract. Retirement, Europe and professional tryouts are real possibilities for many of them, but those options have not been used as predictions. The voting was done during the buyout period, after Ryan Suter, Zach Parise, and Keith Yandle had already hit the free agent market. Other names like Martin Jones, Braden Holtby and James Neal were not included, as they hadn’t yet been officially bought out. The voting was also done before the qualifying offer deadline, meaning names like Nick Ritchie or Pius Suter were not included.

1. Gabriel Landeskog – Colorado Avalanche – 7 years, $52.5MM Close to a unanimous selection as the top free agent on the market, Landeskog checks basically every box you can think of. Scoring threat? Check, he has 171 points in his last 181 games. Physical? Check, even in a shortened season he totaled 81 hits. In his prime? Check, at 28 he’s still on the younger end of the free agent market. Leadership? Was the youngest player in history to be named team captain when the Avalanche gave him the “C” nearly ten years ago. Sure, his offensive numbers may be inflated by playing next to one of the league’s best centers, but there’s no reason to downplay just how effective Landeskog has been. Every team in the league would take him if they could afford to pay him what he’s asking for.

Re-signed with Colorado, 8 years, $56MM

2. Dougie Hamilton – New Jersey Devils – 7 years, $59.5MM Hamilton was either first or second on each ballot, as the only other name that really comes close to Landeskog in this year’s market. The top-pairing defenseman just finished fourth in Norris Trophy voting, has seven straight seasons with at least ten goals, and only turned 28 last month. Hamilton is going to sign a massive deal in free agency and he deserves it, even it could very well take him to his fourth team since debuting in 2012. There’s just no one quite like him on the market this season and he will know exactly what he’s worth after being granted permission to speak with other teams already.

Signed with New Jersey, 7 years, $63MM

3. Zach Hyman – Edmonton Oilers – 7 years, $38.5MM It’s hard to quantify everything that Hyman brings to the rink, as one of the few players in the league that has turned the “grinder” role into true top-six production. Among the best forecheckers in the NHL, he relentlessly tracks down pucks for his linemates with elite body positioning and stick-on-puck ability. There isn’t a star in the league that wouldn’t want Hyman on his wing, doing all the dirty work in the corners just to get it onto his linemate’s stick. The question now is whether, after multiple knee injuries and 345 games of that punishment, he’ll still be the same player as he moves into his thirties. He’s not there yet–Hyman turned 29 last month–but a long-term, big-money contract is a significant risk for a player with a career-high of 41 points.

Signed with Edmonton, 7 years, $38.5MM

4. Philipp Grubauer – Colorado Avalanche – 6 years, $36MM Quite simply, Grubauer picked a perfect year to become a Vezina finalist. Though he has shown the ability before, he proved this season that he could handle the load as a full-time starter, appearing in 40 of Colorado’s 56 games. He lost just nine of those, leading the league with seven shutouts and posting a .922 save percentage. With real concerns over durability or consistency for every other goaltender on the market, he could pick any number of spots for the next chapter of his NHL journey. Of course, the spot with the best chance at winning might be the one he played for last season.

Signed with Seattle, 6 years, $35.4MM

5. Tyson Barrie – Edmonton Oilers – 4 years, $20MM The opening line of Barrie’s entry in the 2021-22 media guide will read “led all defensemen in scoring last year,” yet he failed to receive a single vote for the Norris Trophy thanks to real weaknesses in the defensive end. In the right fit, he can be a devastating presence on the powerplay and will routinely jump into rushes to create offense. It resulted in 48 points in 56 games this year, but there are still real questions over whether he’s worth a long-term investment. Having just turned 30, there’s likely several years of point production left in Barrie, but how much are teams willing to pay for a defenseman with almost no playoff success.

Signed with Edmonton, 3 years, $13.5MM

6. Phillip Danault – Los Angeles Kings – 5 years, $27.5MM Speaking of playoff success, how much does a run to the Stanley Cup Finals buy you in free agency? There was a report that Danault turned down a six-year, $30MM contract offer from the Canadiens before the season began, and it looked like a terrible mistake partway through the year when he scored just five goals. But after neutralizing players like Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Mark Stone in the playoffs, his value as a defensive center was on full display. Whether he recoups the money he turned down remains to be seen, but make no mistake, every team he defeated in the playoffs wishes they had a shutdown presence like Danault in the middle of the ice.

Signed with Los Angeles, 6 years, $33MM

7. David Krejci – Boston Bruins – 1 year, $5MM He’s 35 and he scored just eight goals last season. Red flag, right? Well, for Krejci, it was never really about the goals in the first place, and he proved that by still providing excellent offensive production even as his speed continued to decline. There’s no doubt the hands are still there and his excellent playmaking ability resulted in 44 points through 51 games. That kind of production isn’t easy to find, especially in a market devoid of true centers. It may be a bit of a false market, but Krejci technically will be available to all 32 teams on Wednesday and should be of interest to many. Whether he’s interested in any of them is the question.

Signing in Europe

8. Mikael Granlund – Nashville Predators – 3 years, $15MM Granlund had just 13 goals last season, but that was actually good enough for the lead on a Nashville team that had a difficult time scoring. He’s not a full-time center but can play the position well enough to market himself as one this summer and potentially land a hefty deal after taking just $3.75MM last year.

Signed with Nashville, 4 years, $20MM

9. Jaden Schwartz – Seattle Kraken – 3 years, $14.25MM Schwartz is one of the more interesting free agents upfront. He has produced at least 55 points in five of the last eight seasons but saw his production drop sharply last year, notching just 21 points in 40 games while being held off the scoresheet in the playoffs. There’s enough of a track record to expect that he’ll rebound but coming off the year he had and the way the UFA market was for wingers last fall, he’s not looking at a guaranteed raise on his previous $5.35MM AAV as it looked like he was heading for just a couple of years ago.

Signed with Seattle, 5 years, $27.5MM

10. Blake Coleman – Dallas Stars – 5 years, $23.75MM Coleman may not be the first name that comes to mind when you think of the Stanley Cup champion Lightning roster, but he certainly was an important one. The 29-year-old swiss army knife can do a little bit of everything and fit anywhere on a roster. His speed makes him dangerous no matter the situation, and it’s easy to fall in love with his highlight one-handed goals. The worry, as it was with linemate Barclay Goodrow, is whether Coleman will be seen as such a valuable piece when he’s not making just $1.8MM as he was the last three seasons. He can score goals, but don’t rely on him to carry the offense–his career-high is 36 points.

Signed with Calgary, 6 years, $29.4MM

11. Ryan Suter – Dallas Stars – 4 years, $14MM The defense market got a nice boost when Minnesota opted to pay him for the next eight years not to play for them. Suter isn’t someone who should see a lot of time on the top pairing anymore but he’s still reliable in his own end and before last season, had notched at least 40 points in five straight years. Even though he’s 36, there will be a lot of interest and he should be able to land a multi-year deal. With the way his deal with the Wild was front-loaded, this buyout should allow him to earn a lot more money than he would have had he stayed with them.

Signed with Dallas, 4 years, $14.6MM

12. Mike Hoffman – Montreal Canadiens – 3 years, $12MM One of the top wingers available last fall, he wound up having to wait until close to training camp to sign as he wasn’t able to get the contract he was looking for. This time around, he enters free agency in pretty much the same situation he did before. He’s a capable but streaky scorer while being above average in terms of scoring on the power play but he won’t help much in other areas. With other more well-rounded wingers available this summer, there’s a chance that recent history repeats itself but with a lot of teams looking for scoring help, a raise from $4MM and a multi-year deal can’t be ruled out either.

Signed with Montreal, 3 years, $13.5MM

13. Brandon Saad – St. Louis Blues – 3 years, $12.75 There are two very different sides to every discussion about Saad. He’s either a puck-possession god that can slide into any top-six and make his linemates better, or he’s a frustrating player who has talent but is extremely inefficient with his opportunities. Saad has never been able to take the next step to become a real star in the league, instead topping out around 25 goals and 50 points. This season, he had only 15 and 24 in the shortened campaign, not exactly a platform year for the 28-year-old free agent.

Signed with St. Louis, 5 years, $22.5MM 

14. Tuukka Rask – Boston Bruins – 1 year, $2.5MM + $2MM performance bonuses In a normal year, Rask would rank even higher on the list after another solid campaign in the Boston net. But after undergoing hip surgery that will keep him out part of the year, it’s hard to put a real value on him this season. Just a year removed from being the runner-up for the Vezina Trophy, Rask currently sits third on the all-time save percentage list, behind only Dominik Hasek and Johnny Bower. He’s one of the best and most consistent goaltenders of his generation, but his injury situation and age—now 34—makes him a real question mark. A decision might wait until he’s ready to return to action, but it still seems like a Boston-or-nothing situation.

15. Tomas Tatar – Anaheim Ducks – 3 years, $12MM Tatar has produced strong possession numbers at five-on-five while chipping in with six years of 20 or more goals before last season where he had 10 in 50 games.  That’s ideal for someone who fits as a winger on the second line. But when it mattered the most during Montreal’s playoff run, he was basically a fixture in the press box. That could hurt his market but with his track record, Tatar profiles as an interesting buy-low candidate.

Signed with New Jersey, 2 years, $9MM

16. Kyle Palmieri – New York Islanders – 2 years, $8.5MM One of the best deadline pickups this year, Palmieri went from a rebuilding club in New Jersey to a contending one in New York, and managed to slip seamlessly into the lineup. He was exactly the player the team was hoping for in the postseason, scoring seven goals in 19 games and providing strong two-way play in the team’s rigid defensive structure. The real question mark is his regular season, which resulted in just ten goals and 21 points in 51 games. If that was a fluke and he can get back to his previous performance, a short-term deal to rebuild value before one last multi-year contract could be a prudent financial decision.

17. Linus Ullmark – Buffalo Sabres – 4 years, $16MM For years, Buffalo was hoping that Ullmark would take that big step forward and become their sure-fire number one goaltender.  That didn’t happen but he very quietly posted save percentages that were above the league average the last two seasons, no small feat considering how bad the Sabres were in that stretch. At 27, he’s one of the youngest goalies available on the open market and there may be teams willing to give him a chance to be a 1A netminder if he fails to re-sign in Buffalo.

Signed with Boston, 4 years, $20MM

18. Alexander Wennberg – Detroit Red Wings – 3 years, $10MM Talk about killing a narrative, Wennberg scored more goals in the 2020-21 season than he had in the past three combined. His 17 tallies for the Panthers were a career-high and only the second time he’s recorded more than eight in a single season. Add that to strong defensive play at the center ice position and it looks like you have quite a valuable package. Buyer beware though, Wennberg scored on 20.7% of his shots this season; at his previous career rate of 8%, he would have scored just six times.

Signed with Seattle, 3 years, $13.5MM

19. Petr Mrazek – Toronto Maple Leafs – 2 years, $6.5MM The expected starter in Carolina heading into 2020-21, things didn’t go according to plans for Mrazek. A pair of injuries sidelined him for 37 games and the strong play from Alex Nedeljkovic cut into Mrazek’s playing time down the stretch.  As a result, he enters free agency in the same spot he was when he hit the market three years ago as a player who has shown flashes of being a starter but will likely have to settle for another platoon situation.

Signed with Toronto, 3 years, $11.4MM

20. Nick Foligno – Minnesota Wild – 2 years, $6MM A trade deadline move to Toronto was a disaster, as Foligno suffered an injury and failed to score a single goal for the Maple Leafs, but that doesn’t mean he won’t help a team in 2021-22. An experienced leader who will crack the 1,000 games played mark with a full season, he can still slide into a second-line as a defensively responsible complement to skilled players. If you’re expecting that player that racked up 73 points in 2014-15, he’s long gone. But there’s no reason to think Foligno won’t get a multi-year deal if he wants it.

Signed with Boston, 2 years, $7.6MM

21. Nick Bonino – Montreal Canadiens – 3 years, $9.3MM This will be Bonino’s second tour through free agency and he enters the market in pretty much the same situation he was four years ago – a player that can play in the top six if necessary but is best served as a third-line center. He has reached double-digit goals in seven of the last eight seasons while being above average at the faceoff dot in each of the past four. In a weak market for middlemen, the 33-year-old should receive a lot of interest.

Signed with San Jose, 2 years, $4.1MM

22. Ryan Murray – Calgary Flames – 4 years, $14MM Murray played just 48 games in this shortened season, and yet it’s one of the highest totals of his career. Selected second overall back in 2012, the left-handed defenseman has just been cursed by injury over the years. His only healthy season was back in 2015-16 with the Blue Jackets, which also was the last time he played more than 60 games. He’s not going to put up a lot of points, he likely won’t even be logging more than 20 minutes a night anymore, but if you need someone to plug into the 4-5 spot on the back end, you could certainly do worse. A multi-year deal for such an injury-prone player is probably a mistake, but that doesn’t mean he won’t get one.

Signed with Colorado, 1 year, $2MM

23. Jonathan Bernier – New Jersey Devils – 2 years, $7MM Bernier put up a strong season behind a bad Detroit team this season, posting a .914 save percentage in 24 appearances. Some would look at that and think “wow, imagine what he’d do on a good team!” Of course, that .914 wasn’t much different than the .912 Thomas Greiss recorded, meaning there wasn’t anything really remarkable about the performance. Several teams have given Bernier the reins only to realize he wasn’t the full-time answer in the past, but he’s certainly capable of providing solid, NHL netminding for 30-40 games per season. Given he’ll turn 33 next month it’s hard to imagine a long-term deal, but as a tandem option, he should get at least the $2.5MM salary he earned last season.

Signed with New Jersey, 2 years, $8.25MM

24. Alex Goligoski – Minnesota Wild – 2 years, $5MM The veteran turns 36 on Friday but still logged 23 minutes a game for the Coyotes last season. That’s not an ideal amount of ice time for him but he can still be an effective stay-at-home defender that’s capable of moving onto the second pairing if injuries arise. He’s looking at a sizable drop from his previous AAV of $5.475MM but Goligoski should have several suitors, especially being comfortable on the right side despite being left-handed.

Signed with Minnesota, 1 year, $5MM

25. David Savard – Montreal Canadiens – 3 years, $12MM Savard is a 30-year-old right-handed defenseman coming off a Stanley Cup title, so why is he ranked so low? Well, his analytical numbers have been bad in recent years and he registered just six points in the regular season. The Blue Jackets were using him less than they had the year prior, he was being outscored significantly at even-strength, and then the Lightning decided to give him just 14 minutes a night in the playoffs. Maybe he’ll bounce back and re-establish himself as a second-pair shutdown option, but there are a lot of red flags that make Savard a likely candidate to be overpaid in free agency.

Signed with Montreal, 4 years, $14MM

26. Keith Yandle – Philadelphia Flyers – 1 year, $900K Yandle’s reputation at this point of his career is well-known and well-earned.  The 34-year-old is a strong offensive presence, notching more than 40 points in seven straight years before 2020-21 (where he basically played at a 40-point pace during the shortened schedule).  However, he gives back a lot of that at the defensive end where he has struggled to the point where he was scratched at times in the playoffs.  In a limited role with plenty of powerplay time, however, Yandle can still be a strong contributor as he looks to set the NHL’s ironman record – a mark he’s 42 games away from tying.

Signed with Philadelphia, 1 year, $900K

27. Frederik Andersen – Pittsburgh Penguins – 1 year, $2.5MM So you want to be a starting goaltender, eh? After two down years, which also included plenty of time on injured reserve, Andersen is an unknown commodity on the open market. He has been good in the past–though never great–but might need a chance to prove he’s healthy and reliable again before a multi-year contract comes his way.

Signed with Carolina, 2 years, $9MM

28. Cody Ceci – Vancouver Canucks – 2 years, $4.4MM After getting through the media meat grinder in Toronto, Ceci quietly took a deal in Pittsburgh and did his job quite well. When the Penguins had nearly the entire defense corps on the shelf, he even had a stretch login upwards of 23 minutes a night. That’s not where Ceci should be sitting, but in a depth role he can be effective enough.

Signed with Edmonton, 4 years, $13MM

29. Derek Forbort – Boston Bruins – 3 years, $9MM All Forbort has done throughout his career is log 20 minutes a night beside talented offensive defensemen, but for whatever reason he’s still often overlooked as a top-four option. He had 12 points in 56 games this season playing mostly next to Neal Pionk in Winnipeg and averaged nearly 25 minutes a night in the postseason. His name is rarely brought up among the top free agent defensemen though, meaning there could still be some sneaky value available for the right team.

Signed with Boston, 3 years, $9MM

30. Mattias Janmark – Arizona Coyotes – 2 years, $5.4MM The Golden Knights were willing to move multiple draft picks at the deadline to acquire Janmark for a playoff run, showing just how well he’s liked as a depth player in the league. He scored 11 goals and 24 points in the shortened 56-game schedule and then added eight more in the playoffs. You can’t rely on him to play top line minutes or score at a huge rate, but his versatility should still generate some interest this summer. Even teams that aren’t contenders should be considering Janmark, if only because of the return he generated this year at the deadline.

Signed with Vegas, 1 year, $2MM

31. Erik Haula – Nashville Predators – 3 years, $8.25MM The excitement generated by Haula’s 29-goal campaign in Vegas a few years ago has worn off, and he’s back to the third-line option he was in the past. Given how thin the center market is though, he should be able to secure several years at a healthy cap hit. The three-year deal he signed with Vegas in 2017 is probably a good comparable, given how his offensive numbers have regressed to the level he showed early in his career.

Signed with Boston, 2 years, $4.75MM

32. Ryan Getzlaf – Edmonton Oilers – 1 year, $2MM + $1.5MM performance bonuses It seemed unthinkable just a few years ago that Getzlaf would be leaving Anaheim in free agency, but the same could have been said about his running mate Corey Perry. Getzlaf even said recently that Perry’s success in Dallas and Montreal created a bit of an “itch” to see what it’s like outside of Anaheim. The 36-year-old is by no means a franchise center anymore, but with a Stanley Cup ring and more than 1,100 NHL games under his belt, he could be a valuable signing for the bottom-six.

Signed with Anaheim, 1 year, $4.5MM

33. Jaroslav Halak – Vancouver Canucks – 1 year, $2.6MM Selected in the ninth round of the 2003 draft, Halak has done his best to dispel the idea that short goaltenders can’t compete. He has a 281-173-62 record over a 15 year career with a strong .916 save percentage. While his role in Boston decreased as younger options emerged, there’s an argument to be made that he’s the best backup goaltender in the league and should find his way to a contract once again.

Signed with Vancouver, 1 year, $1.5MM + $1.5MM performance bonuses

34. Jake McCabe – New York Islanders – 1 year, $1.5MM Thirteen games this season and no completely healthy years in his career, McCabe is a complete question mark at this point. He might return to full strength and provide quiet stable defense, or he might never get back to his previous level after this major knee injury. It’s hard to imagine anyone will commit multiple years to him coming off that kind of an injury.

Signed with Chicago, 4 years, $16MM

35. Tyler Bozak – Seattle Kraken – 1 year, $2.5MM + $1MM performance bonuses Bozak is 35 now and scored just five goals this season, but is still one of the best faceoff men in the league and could fill a depth center role. There aren’t many undrafted college free agents with better careers than the 2019 Stanley Cup champion, but it’s hard to see it lasting much longer.

36. Casey Cizikas – New York Rangers – 4 years, $15.6MM A candidate for the worst deal of free agency, Cizikas’ value is tied directly to the four-line structure that the Islanders have built over the years. He scored 20 goals in 2018-19 but is usually only good for single digits, and doesn’t create any offense for his linemates. There’s a role that Cizikas can fill on any contender, but it’s not one that is deserving of the long-term contract that he’s looking for.

37. Zach Parise – New York Islanders – 1 year, $2MM Bought out in Minnesota, Parise has a chip on his shoulder and is looking to prove he still belongs in the NHL. The fact that he’s still earning money from the Wild should give him an incentive to take a low-salary deal from a contender, which could end up being a huge bargain. Remember, Parise scored 25 goals in 69 games during the 2019-20 season. He may be 37, but he’s not retired.

38. Corey Perry – Tampa Bay Lightning – 1 year, $900K If Parise wants a model to follow, why not look at Perry, who was bought out in Anaheim and immediately went to two consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. His last deal at league minimum probably won’t be repeated, but Perry is Cup chasing at this point and has already made nearly $90MM in his career.

Signed with Tampa Bay, 2 years, $2MM

39. Alexander Edler – Dallas Stars – 1 year, $2.5MM + $750K performance bonuses Edler will likely play his 1,000th NHL regular season game this year, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be for the team he played the first 925. The 35-year-old was open about wanting to check out the open market and look for a different opportunity after the Canucks started to transition away from him this season. Still good enough to fill a depth role, no contender can afford to hand him a multi-year deal at this point and risk that the decline he showed is only going to continue.

Signed with Los Angeles, 1 year, $3.5MM

40. Marcus Johansson – Arizona Coyotes – 1 year, $2MM At risk of becoming “just a guy,” Johansson is a free agent once again after playing on five different teams since 2017. He had just 14 points in 36 games this season, but still has enough positional versatility and defensive ability to deserve a contract. The question is whether any contender really see him as a difference-maker at this point, several years removed from his last strong offensive season.

Signed with Seattle, 1 year, $1.5MM

41. Nikita Gusev – Vancouver Canucks – 1 year, $2MM Wanted by the entire NHL after his 82-point season in the KHL, Gusev burst onto the scene with the Devils in 2019-20 with 44 points in 66 games. That offensive production completely dried up last season with just ten points in 31 games, and Gusev failed to even crack the Panthers lineup in the postseason. Still, at just 29, if he wants to stay in North America there will certainly be teams willing to take a chance on the Russian forward.

42. Antti Raanta – Carolina Hurricanes – 2 years, $3.4MM When healthy, Raanta has shown he can be an elite NHL goalie. The problem is he’s never healthy, and now he’s 32. He played just 12 games this season for the Coyotes and posted the worst save percentage since his rookie year at .905, certainly not inspiring much confidence that he can be a starter again. As a tandem or backup option you could do worse, but you better have a strong third option in case of injury.

Signed with Carolina, 2 years, $4MM

43. Sami Vatanen – Columbus Blue Jackets – 1 year, $1.5MM Just a few years ago Vatanen was part of a deep, productive defense corps in Anaheim, but since leaving the Ducks things haven’t gone very smoothly. The 30-year-old defenseman recorded just six points in 39 games between the Devils and Stars, playing the fewest minutes of his career. If you’re signing him now, don’t expect the 30-point player he was once.

44. Erik Gustafsson – Arizona Coyotes – 1 year, $1MM Gustafsson has never seen a rush he doesn’t want to join, and that offensive mindset often comes at the expense of his coach’s trust. This is a defenseman that scored 60 points in the 2018-19 season and was traded the following year, only to be passed around twice more since then. He can’t defend well enough to play big minutes, but there’s real offensive upside if you can find the right deployment for the 29-year-old.

45. James Reimer – Nashville Predators – 1 year, $2MM Reimer has never posted a save percentage below .900 in a full season and now has nearly 400 games of NHL experience. If you have a starter that’s going to carry the load, there’s a lot to like about the idea of him as a backup option as he moves into his mid-thirties.

Signed with San Jose, 2, years, $4.5MM

46. Derek Stepan – Minnesota Wild – 1 year, $2MM Last season was a tough one for the 31-year-old.  He was traded to Ottawa in late December, joining a team that was expected to flip him later in the season.  Instead, he struggled with the Senators before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in late February.  Stepan enters the market on a down note as a result but he could be a nice bounce-back candidate on a short-term contract as he looks to rebuild his value.  His days of being a top-six option are numbered but he can still handle a bottom-six role while killing penalties which should still generate a fair amount of interest.

Signed with Carolina, 1 year, $1.35MM

47. Alex Chiasson – Buffalo Sabres – 2 years, $3.2MM Chiasson wasn’t able to replicate the 22-goal season he had in his first year with Edmonton with his production returning closer to his normal numbers since then.  Even so, those career averages put him as a 10-goal player that doesn’t need a lot of ice time and power play opportunities to get that type of production.  He brings enough of a physical presence to hold his own in a bottom six role so while he’s not the type of addition that’s going to catch your eye right away, he’ll fill an important depth role for whoever signs him.

48. Eric Staal – Detroit Red Wings – 1 year, $2MM Staal was bad all year, looking disintrested in Buffalo and a step behind in Montreal. That is, until the playoffs, where he confidently played a depth role, lending his experience to the fourth line and even chipping in with eight points in 21 games. He’s 36 now and will likely have to continue in that kind of a fourth-line role if he wants to keep playing, but there’s enough respect around the league for the 17-year veteran that he could sign a cheap deal with a contender or a more expensive one to serve as a leader and mentor. If it’s the latter, he could still be a piece to move at the trade deadline.

49. Zach Bogosian – Vegas Golden Knights – 2 years, $2MM Coming off a Stanley Cup with the Lightning, Bogosian signed a one-year deal with the Maple Leafs as a depth option. Instead of battling for playing time, Bogosian was in the lineup much more often than not in Toronto, stabilizing the third pairing and adding some physicality to the back end. Despite playing 13 years in the league, the 31-year-old defenseman has only been to the playoffs twice. He was willing to leave money on the table when he asked Buffalo for a contract termination, so a low-money deal with a contender seems most likely.

Signed with Tampa Bay, 3 years, $2.55MM

50. Patrik Nemeth – New York Rangers – 3 years, $7.5MM Nemeth is a big, lengthy defenseman , which became the theme of the 2021 playoffs, but he also hasn’t been very effective in recent years. Perhaps that’s more to do with his team in Detroit than anything else, especially considering the Avalanche liked him enough to bring him back at the deadline this year.

Signed with New York, 3 years, $7.5MM

Free Agency| Newsstand Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Offseason Checklist: Montreal Canadiens

July 27, 2021 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

The offseason is in full flight with free agency almost here.  We continue our series which examines what each team needs to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Montreal.

The 2020-21 season was a strange one for the Canadiens.  They were one of the top teams early on before things started to go off the rails.  The end result was head coach Claude Julien, associate coach Kirk Muller, and goalie coach Stephane Waite being let go with Dominique Ducharme taking over on an interim basis.  They continued to struggle in the second half but once the playoffs came, they were much better, making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final despite only winning 24 of 56 games during the regular season.  Ducharme had his interim tag quickly removed but GM Marc Bergevin has plenty of other work to do this summer.

Add Scoring Help

Last fall, the Canadiens added Tyler Toffoli in free agency and he responded with the best season of his career with 28 goals in 52 games.  They added Josh Anderson in a trade with Columbus and he was second on the team in goals.  They signed Cole Caufield late in the season and he gave their attack a boost down the stretch.

And yet, even with those moves, Montreal is still not a particularly strong offensive team.  They were hovering near four goals a game early on but by the end of the year, they were in the bottom half of the league and were struggling to score more than two per night late in the season.  A lack of reliable scoring also hurt them in the Final against Tampa Bay.  They’re about to lose one of their better regular season offensive players in Tomas Tatar to free agency and Shea Weber, one of the bigger offensive threats from the back end, is done for at least the year and his career may very well be over.

Even with a full season of Caufield who is an early Calder Trophy candidate, this is an attack that remains decidedly mediocre.  While they hope the return of Jonathan Drouin will help, he only scored twice in 44 games so they can’t count on him to be a difference-maker at this point.  While there are other holes to fill, Bergevin will be looking for a top-six piece to deepen his attack.

Replace Weber

This is one of those tasks that sounds simple enough on paper but is going to be quite difficult to accomplish.  While Montreal’s captain was undoubtedly starting to decline compared to his level of play in his prime, he was still a key cog on their back end last season.  Weber logged nearly 23 minutes per game and was only two seconds behind Jeff Petry for the team lead in ATOI, finished tied for third in power play goals, played more than anyone shorthanded, and was his usual physical presence.  Finding a player that can check off all of those boxes is a nearly impossible task for Bergevin; even if he was to sign the top UFA defenseman in Dougie Hamilton, there are elements that Weber provides that he can’t (and vice-versa).

It appears that the Canadiens will instead have to try to fill that void by committee.  They’ve been linked to David Savard and Chris Wideman as potential free agent signings and each of them could replace a part of what Weber has given them – Savard can play a physical shutdown role while Wideman is coming off a strong season offensively in the KHL and it appears their hope is that he could help on the offensive side of things.

Is there room for another impact addition?  Montreal’s back end wasn’t the most mobile to begin with and bringing Savard or a similar player in for Weber doesn’t really change that.  How much can Wideman be relied on considering he has been out of the NHL the last two years?  If the Canadiens are opting to replace Weber with a by-committee approach, the committee coming in to replace him is going to need to be a big one.  Weber will be eligible for LTIR, giving them up to $7.857MM in space to work with to replace him.

Center Decisions

This one is three-fold.  First, Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a restricted free agent this summer and will need a new contract.  The third-overall pick in 2018 has shown flashes of top-six upside but has been inconsistent as well to the point where he was a healthy scratch at both the start and the end of their playoff run.  While they’re still hoping that he can be a core player for them down the road, he isn’t quite there yet and accordingly, a short-term bridge contract makes sense for both sides.

The second pertains to their other young center in Nick Suzuki.  He is eligible to sign a contract extension as of Wednesday and while Kotkaniemi’s development has been spotty, that isn’t the case for Suzuki.  He played well during the regular season and stepped up in the playoffs for the second straight year while showing some chemistry with their top prospect in Caufield.  If Bergevin believes the best is yet to come from the 21-year-old, working to get a contract extension done now before it gets more expensive would be a wise course of action.

The final element pertains to Phillip Danault.  He has been a fixture down the middle for them for the past five seasons and has become one of the stronger defensive forwards in the league along the way.  He’s coming off a strong playoff showing in terms of shutting down top opponents (though he only scored once in 22 games) and between that and his age (28), he’s likely to be the most sought-after center on the open market.  A long-term extension was rejected last offseason and there have been no contract talks since.  Assuming he’s leaving, how will they replace him?  Jake Evans and Ryan Poehling are both young pivots but are they ready to step into a bigger role?  If not, Bergevin will have to add a veteran center to his shopping list as well.

The Canadiens are coming off an improbable playoff run but as it stands, the roster will look quite a bit different next season.  Finding the right mix of returnees and newcomers will be the key task for Bergevin this summer as Montreal moves back into the Atlantic Division.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Montreal Canadiens| Offseason Checklist 2021 Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders

July 25, 2021 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

The offseason is in full flight with the draft now complete and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what each team needs to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

For the third straight season, the Isles made it to the third round of the playoffs.  Also for the third straight season, they lost to the eventual Cup champion in Tampa Bay.  With cap constraints fast approaching, GM Lou Lamoriello has freed up some cap space with the trade of Nick Leddy to Detroit and losing Jordan Eberle to Seattle in expansion.  Now that he has some room to work with, his offseason checklist revolves around the reshaping of his roster.

Secure Defensive Certainty

There are several teams with multiple long-term commitments on the back end where their core is locked up.  The Islanders are not one of those teams.  Instead, they have just one blueliner signed beyond next season and that’s Scott Mayfield while Noah Dobson will be an RFA for the first time.  Maybe Sebastian Aho is a regular by then as well but otherwise, there aren’t many players guaranteed to be on the roster this time a year from now.

Ryan Pulock is entering the second and final year of his contract and looks to be one of the more prominent blueliners in the 2022 UFA class.  He has quietly emerged as a capable defender that can log big minutes on a top pairing, be reliable defensively, and contribute offensively with three straight seasons over 30 points before 2020-21.  He’s looking at a raise from his $5MM AAV if he gets to the open market but Lamoriello would be wise to have some discussions about an extension before then.

Then there’s Adam Pelech.  He’s set to hit restricted free agency for the final time this summer as he will also be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2022 if he doesn’t sign a multi-year agreement in the coming months.  That gives him a bit of extra leverage heading into negotiations although his next deal shouldn’t be a highly expensive one.  Getting a multi-year deal in place would certainly by ideal for the Isles.

Otherwise, it’s possible that they enter next summer with $1.45MM in commitments on the back end.  While that’s plenty of spending flexibility at that position (that low of committed money on defense is basically unheard of), it would also put them under a lot of pressure a year from now.  Whether it’s getting Pulock and Pelech on multi-year deals, adding a veteran on a multi-year contract, or both, having some more certainty on the blueline is something Lamoriello needs to be working on.

Re-Sign Palmieri

The decision to protect two veteran fourth liners while leaving Eberle and Josh Bailey unprotected was largely for financial reasons.  New York clearly wanted to free up some cap space with an eye on retaining Kyle Palmieri and Eberle’s selection did just that, opening up $5.5MM in the process.

Now that they’ve freed up the money to keep Palmieri, they need to sign him.  The 30-year-old was acquired at the trade deadline from New Jersey (although with veteran Travis Zajac, another pending UFA) in exchange for a first-round pick (used on Chase Stillman).  He’s coming off a quiet year with just 10 goals in 51 games between two teams but before this past season, he had five straight seasons of 24 goals or more.

Chances are that Palmieri’s new deal will be close to what Eberle was making but assuming an agreement can be reached, it will basically be a trade, Eberle for Palmieri.  Now they just need to make sure both don’t leave for nothing but cap flexibility in return.

Add Scoring Help

There’s a reason that the Islanders are known as a defense-first team.  They play a stifling defensive system that they certainly get the most out of but part of that is by necessity as they are not a particularly talented team offensively.  The last time they finished higher than 20th in goals scored was 2017-18 back when Doug Weight was coaching and the team played a whole lot different than they do now.

Now consider that Eberle is gone; he tied for third in team scoring this past season.  Yes, Palmieri will effectively replace him assuming he re-signs but they’re basically only breaking even with that ‘trade’.  Leddy had more points than any other Islander blueliner so there’s another hole that needs to be filled.

The hope is that there is room for some internal improvements.  Dobson should be able to produce more and expectations will be high on RFA winger Anthony Beauvillier for him to step up into a bigger role and score with more consistency.  That will certainly help but they will still a below-average team at the offensive end.  Bringing in another top-six forward and even a blueliner that can help offensively would be a huge boost for them.

Of course, that’s easier said than done.  New York has about $17MM in cap room (that can be extended by up to $6MM with Johnny Boychuk on LTIR with their cap situation at the time of placement determining how much extra room is opened up) but a lot of free agents to contend with.  We’ve covered Palmieri, Pelech, and Beauvillier already but goaltender Ilya Sorokin (RFA) and center Casey Cizikas (UFA) also need new deals.  By the time all of those are done, they won’t have a whole lot of room left.  Accordingly, Lamoriello may still need to free up even more cap space over the coming days if he wants to add some scoring punch to his roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders| Offseason Checklist 2021 Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

July 25, 2021 at 10:35 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

Free agency is now just a few days away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Lightning have cleared a little bit of money through expansion, but still don’t have much to retain their pending free agents.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Ross Colton – At the bottom of every Stanley Cup roster, there are always a few homegrown players that provide depth for a bargain bin cost. The Lightning have proven their development system can create NHL players out of almost anyone, and they did it again for fourth-round pick Ross Colton. The 24-year-old forward had 13 goals in 53 combined games, but none bigger than the one on July 7, tapping home a David Savard pass to put the Lightning ahead of the Montreal Canadiens. It would end up being the only goal they needed, meaning whatever happens from here, Colton has a Cup-winning goal on his resume. As an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent he may deserve a slight raise, but the Lightning simply don’t have the budget for one. It will be interesting to see if they can fit him in for really anything more than the $750K league minimum at this point.

D Cal Foote – Many were surprised last week when the Seattle Kraken decided to take Yanni Gourde in expansion instead of Foote. The 22-year-old defenseman was the 14th overall pick in 2017 and made his NHL debut this year, playing 35 games during the regular season. After some deadline additions, he failed to suit up for any playoff games, but will be in the running for the third pairing again next season. In fact, with Savard and Luke Schenn both pending free agents, the Lightning have only five defensemen under contract for the 2021-22 campaign. Foote’s opportunity is right in front of him, by accepting a short-term, low-salary deal (even potentially his qualifying offer) he stands the best chance of being in the NHL lineup every day.

Other RFAs: F Alex Barre-Boulet, F Taylor Raddysh, F Otto Somppi, F Boris Katchouk, F Ryan Lohin, D Sean Day

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Blake Coleman – The value of a quality bottom-sixer is already in full view when linemate Barclay Goodrow signed a six-year, $21.85MM deal with the New York Rangers, and many would say Coleman is the better player. In fact, he might prove to be more than just a bottom-six free agent this summer, he might be the bottom-six free agent. A swiss army knife that can basically play any position on any line, Coleman has scored 13, 22, 21 and 14 goals in his four full NHL seasons, this year’s total coming in just 55 games. He can play in a scoring role, he’s one of the best penalty killers in the league, can create offense by himself thanks to blazing speed, and is physical enough to excel in the playoffs. It’s hard to not see Coleman getting a huge contract in the open market, given the term and money committed to Goodrow already. Zach Hyman–who may have some better offensive numbers thanks to his role in Toronto–is a relatively good comparison for Coleman and is on the verge of signing a seven-year deal in Edmonton.

D David Savard – Acquired at the deadline in a savvy salary cap move, Savard was exactly what the Lightning expected down the stretch and through the playoffs. Steady, quiet, play from the right side, Savard is the kind of second-pairing rock that every team could use. He doesn’t post incredible possession statistics, scored just six points this season and turns 31 in October, but you can bet there is a multi-year deal waiting for Savard that will price him out of Tampa Bay’s range. The four-year, $16MM contract that Adam Larsson signed in Seattle should be a good comparable, though the Kraken had the added benefit of negotiating against no one but Edmonton. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see Savard pass that number or even secure a longer deal after playing a key role en route to a Stanley Cup championship.

Other UFAs: F Luke Witkowski, F Boo Nieves, D Luke Schenn, D Brian Lashoff, D Ben Thomas, D Andreas Borgman, G Christopher Gibson, G Curtis McElhinney, G Anders Nilsson (retired),

Projected Cap Space

At least the Lightning are technically under the cap again after losing Gourde and seeing so many others scheduled for free agency. The team has over $80.7MM committed to just 17 players, meaning there will be more moves coming at some point. At least one and maybe two of the team’s expensive forwards will need to go, while the restricted free agents will have to sign for cheap or pack their bags. That’s the cost of putting together a two-time Stanley Cup roster, and there are drastic changes coming in Tampa Bay before the start of next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus 2021| Tampa Bay Lightning Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Offseason Checklist: Vegas Golden Knights

July 22, 2021 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 11 Comments

The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what each team needs to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Vegas.

It was another deep playoff run for the Golden Knights as they made their way to the third round before falling to Montreal.  With most of the core already under contract, GM Kelly McCrimmon will have some work to do if he wants to shake up his group and add some missing pieces.

Free Up Cap Space

With over $76MM in commitments for next season already and a prominent unrestricted free agent (who will be addressed later), there isn’t much in the way of financial wiggle room for Vegas.  It’s not necessarily a situation where they have to exactly match money but if they want to add a significant piece, they probably will need to send a notable contract the other way.  Even if they don’t make any big moves, keeping some wiggle room so that they don’t have to dress less than 18 skaters for multiple games would be worthwhile.

Add Impact Center

Vegas has done well putting together a capable group of centers despite not really adding one in their expansion draft or in free agency.  It’s not the best group in the league by any stretch but it has been effective so far.  William Karlsson hasn’t quite been able to repeat his numbers from his first season with the Golden Knights but at the very least, he’s a capable second option.  Chandler Stephenson has gone from a role player with Washington to a strong two-way presence with Vegas.  Again, he’s not a top option but he’s a solid piece.  That’s a decent core.

But is decent good enough?  A legitimate number one center would put those two in more optimal spots and really deepen the lineup.  That’s a tough ask considering there really is only one available in Jack Eichel and bringing in someone with a $10MM cap hit would be difficult to fit in.  But another second liner would certainly bolster their fortunes.  With Cody Glass not working out on the third line, the production from that trio suffered.  If they effectively had three second line centers, they’d be closer to where they were when Paul Stastny was on the team.  That would be a more realistic goal for McCrimmon to aim for.

Vegas made a pair of moves before the transaction freeze to add a pair of players who they hope could become useful pieces in Nolan Patrick and Brett Howden.  Both have draft pick pedigree having been first-round picks (Patrick 2nd, Howden 26th) but haven’t panned out yet.  In a perfect world, Patrick becomes that impact pivot but the way the last two years have gone, it’s hard to see that happening.  Howden could help in a limited role but it’s doubtful he’ll be an impact scorer.  Those pieces could help from a depth perspective but McCrimmon would be wise to add someone with a better track record offensively.

Re-Sign Or Replace Martinez

With their limited cap room, it’s going to be hard for Vegas to keep pending UFA defenseman Alec Martinez but they’re certainly going to try to keep him in the fold.  Earlier today, Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported (Twitter link) that the 33-year-old is mulling over an offer from the Golden Knights although he’d likely be leaving some money on the table to stick around compared to what he’d be able to get on the open market.

The decision to bring Martinez in back before the 2020 trade deadline proved to be a good one as he made an immediate impact before the shutdown for the pandemic and played quite well for them in the bubble.  That carried over to 2020-21 where he logged over 22 minutes per game while picking up 32 points in 53 games, the best point per game average over his career.  His production tapered off a bit in the playoffs but to be fair, he was also playing with a broken foot.  With how he has performed the last few years, there will be no shortage of interest if he gets to the open market.

If Vegas can’t agree on a contract with Martinez, they’ll need to find a way to replace him.  Nic Hague played well this season but is he ready to step into a top-four spot on the left side?  That would be a big jump for someone that has been limited to 16 minutes a night in his first two years and was healthy scratched at times in the playoffs.  He may be able to get there eventually but for now, finding a short-term stopgap option to hold down that role for a year or two would be a wise course of action.  It’ll be tough to do with their cap structure but with them having an offer out to Martinez, it would appear they have a plan to try to free up some money to make it happen.

Goaltending Decision

That money-saving plan may very well have to come between the pipes.  Having both Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner was a nice luxury for Vegas this past season but given their cap-related adventures during the year, that luxury helped create some of their problems when they were forced to go with a short roster.  While having starter-level goaltending each night would be great to have, can they afford to have both of them on the roster again?

If the answer is no, which one goes?  Fleury’s market is certainly better than it was in the fall when teams were seeking retention plus an incentive to take on his contract.  Now, he only has one year left (though still at $7MM) and is coming off a Vezina Trophy.   As for Lehner, his track record with the Islanders and Blackhawks earned him a reasonable $5MM AAV and while he didn’t play much in 2020-21 due to injuries and Fleury’s success, he played quite well most nights.

Fleury turns 37 in November so he doesn’t have many years left in him while Lehner turns 30 this weekend so he’d be the safer long-term play but also probably has the better trade value.

Two decisions need to be made here – can they afford to keep both goalies and if not, which one goes?  The Olympic break has led to a compression of games that’s similar to what this year was so having a top tandem would give them a big leg up.  But with everything else Vegas has and needs, this may not be a luxury they can afford anymore.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist 2021| Vegas Golden Knights Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues

July 20, 2021 at 6:04 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The big focus in St. Louis is on a disgruntled sniper, but there are other issues to worry about as well.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Robert Thomas – The discussion of RFAs, which is a long one in St. Louis, should start with Thomas, the 22-year-old center who showed real promise before a brutal 2020-21. In his first two NHL seasons, Thomas recorded 19 goals and 75 points in 136 games; those numbers dropped to just three goals and 12 points in 33 games this season. That’s a big step backward for the 2017 first-round pick, but it certainly doesn’t mean the Blues are giving up on him. In fact, it actually might help them in contract negotiations, at least if they’re willing to do a short-term deal. Thomas likely won’t want to lock into a long contract after such a poor offensive showing, meaning there’s even a chance that he could sign his qualifying offer and bet on himself in 2021-22. Just one year away from being arbitration-eligible, a big showing next season could set him up for a huge payday a year from now.

F Jordan Kyrou – Despite being in the same situation in terms of arbitration eligibility, Kyrou comes into this summer with very different leverage. The 23-year-old broke out this season with 14 goals and 35 points in 55 games, becoming one of the team’s most reliable offensive weapons. In fact, given his production came in limited minutes—Kyrou scored all 14 of his goals at even-strength despite averaging just over 13 minutes a night—there’s actually a good bet his scoring totals get a significant bump next season if moved full-time into the top-six (something that seems likely with the expected departure of Vladimir Tarasenko). His camp and the Blues will both know that, meaning a multi-year deal right now is probably the best bet for both sides, even if it does come with a healthy raise.

D Vince Dunn – The RFA list for St. Louis is long and also includes some other interesting forwards, but Dunn’s name is perhaps the most intriguing of all. The 24-year-old defenseman was left unprotected in the upcoming expansion draft and may end up negotiating a contract with the Kraken instead of the Blues, but either way, he’s in line for a significant raise. Signed to a one-year, $1.875MM deal in December, Dunn’s 2020-21 season certainly wasn’t smooth, but still ended up with him averaging more than 19 minutes a night. He scored six goals and 20 points in 43 games, continuing the early-career production that had him so highly coveted. Sure, there are defensive warts, but it’s difficult to find young defensemen that can drive play as well as Dunn has through his first 267 NHL games. Even if Seattle doesn’t take him, there’s a chance that the Blues aren’t the team he’s negotiating with anyway. The team has had him on the block before, and the fact that he’s arbitration-eligible makes it a tricky situation. St. Louis already has nearly $22MM tied up in their top-four defensemen, meaning they may not want to fit in whatever Dunn is awarded, should he go that route.

Other RFAs: F Ivan Barbashev, F Zach Sanford, F Jacob de La Rose, F Erik Foley, F Dakota Joshua, F Nolan Stevens, F Evan Polei, G Evan Fitzpatrick

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Jaden Schwartz – Sometimes overlooked when discussing the Blues’ key players over the past several years, Schwartz has been a consistent offensive producer for quite a while. That is, of course, until the 2020-21 campaign, where he scored just eight goals and 21 points in 40 games. That is a per-game rate much worse than six of the previous seven seasons, which included four 20+ goal campaigns and five in which Schwartz scored at least 55 points. The one season that lines up with that kind of production? 2018-19, when Schwartz had just 36 points in 69 games but then showed up in the playoffs, helping the team to a Stanley Cup. In short, he’s coming off the worst year of his career at the most inopportune time, as he looks for a big payday in free agency. His history will certainly drive interest, but buyer beware with the 29-year-old forward, who has faced some sort of injury nearly every season of his career.

F Mike Hoffman – If you want a weapon for your powerplay, look no further than Hoffman, who had another seven goals with the man-advantage even in the shortened 2020-21 campaign. Even if he doesn’t contribute a ton in the defensive zone, the term “instant offense” applies to the 31-year-old winger. The market was weak enough in last year’s uncertain market that Hoffman accepted a one-year, $4MM deal to go to St. Louis, but it’s hard to imagine him taking that kind of a contract this time around. He’s going to score, you can be sure of it, but he doesn’t exactly play the style that Blues head coach Craig Berube has become known for, and will turn 32 in November. A multi-year deal is a risk, but one that someone will likely take this summer.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Bozak, F Alex Steen (retired), F Curtis McKenzie, F Nathan Walker, F Austin Poganski, D Mitch Reinke, G Jon Gillies

Projected Cap Space

With all those free agents off the books, you’d think the Blues would have a ton of cap space to work with. Well, not exactly, at least until they move Tarasenko out. The team currently sits $17.4MM under the cap ceiling, but a good chunk of that will have to be given out to the restricted free agents that remain. The team only has eight forwards signed to one-way deals, and though young players like Klim Kostin will likely push for spots, there’s lots of work to do for GM Doug Armstrong to fill out the roster.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus 2021| St. Louis Blues Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

2 comments

PHR Mock Expansion Draft: Seattle Kraken

July 20, 2021 at 2:05 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 19 Comments

The protection lists are in and the Seattle Kraken are now on the clock. Tomorrow night the 32nd NHL team will select their expansion roster from around the league, taking one player from 30 teams. The Vegas Golden Knights are exempt from the process, but will also not receive part of the heft expansion fee.

Seattle must select at least 20 players who are under contract for the 2021-22 season. They must also select a minimum of 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders. The contracts of the selected players must fall between 60% ($48.9MM) and 100% ($81.5MM) of the 2020-21 salary cap. The full rules for the selection process can be found here.

The last time we had an expansion draft, the PHR team came together and developed a consensus roster. Though several of those choices turned out to be correct, the vast number of side-deals kept several top names out of Vegas. This year, we’ve done something a little bit different. Brian La Rose, Zach Leach, Josh Erickson, and I have each submitted a roster, along with a bit of explanation of our process. In these lists, we don’t take into account any potential expansion-day trades but do consider future transactions. As always, we welcome your thoughts and critiques in the comment section below.

Brian La Rose

Forwards (17):

Adam Gaudette (CHI)
J.T. Compher (COL)
Max Domi (CBJ)
Adam Mascherin (DAL)
Tyler Benson (EDM)
Calle Jarnkrok (NSH)
Andreas Johnsson (NJD)
Josh Bailey (NYI)
Julien Gauthier (NYR)
Chris Tierney (OTT)
Jakub Voracek (PHI)
Jason Zucker (PIT)
Dylan Gambrell (SJS)
Ondrej Palat (TBL)
Alexander Kerfoot (TOR)
Kole Lind (VAN)
Mason Appleton (WPG)

Defense (10):

Josh Mahura (ANA)
Jeremy Lauzon (BOS)
William Borgen (BUF)
Mark Giordano (CGY)
Jake Bean (CAR)
Troy Stecher (DET)
Kale Clague (LAK)
Brett Kulak (MTL)
Vince Dunn (STL)
Justin Schultz (WSH)

Goaltenders (3):

Josef Korenar (ARI)
Chris Driedger (FLA)
Kaapo Kahkonen (MIN)

Value and flexibility were the two elements I valued on my Seattle roster. It’s a team that will be well below the Upper Limit once everyone is signed with several veterans who were selected with the intention of flipping them either before the draft this week or by the trade deadline for picks and prospects to build up their asset base. If they’re moved by the draft, that frees up the ability to take on a bad contract or two like Arizona just did with Andrew Ladd, adding more long-term pieces to the puzzle in the process. Others like Chris Tierney and Justin Schultz are pieces that would benefit from a big role and improved numbers, building up their value for the trade deadline.

In goal, Chris Driedger (assuming he signs) with Kaapo Kahkonen gives them a controllable and cost-friendly tandem for a few years. I don’t see the point of paying big money for a veteran at this stage as I’m eyeing a longer-term buildup. Josef Korenar is waiver-exempt and as much as there are better waiver-exempt third goalies available, someone had to be picked from Arizona.

There are two distinct classes on the back end. The expiring contracts are the trade bait but it’s by design that there are six players under the age of 25. Vince Dunn is an established piece and I think some patience and good development could yield three more regular NHL blueliners out of the more unproven players with an opportunity for a regular role. Again, they’re all controllable through restricted free agency, giving them either some cost-effective players or interesting trade pieces a year or two down the road.

Up front, most of the players chosen that are signed beyond 2021-22 were picked with an eye on rehabilitating value. Whether it’s a change of scenery or a chance to play a bigger role, the hope is that some of them will become trade assets next summer. Veterans like Jakub Voracek, Jason Zucker, and Josh Bailey, meanwhile, serve as capable pieces to keep the team competitive most nights. I’d take the gamble on an injured Max Domi to see if he’s someone that’s worth keeping around longer-term. If not, he’s someone who ideally would be flippable at the deadline as well. Again, there are some prospects on there with minimal NHL time by design. The hope is that a couple will realistically pan out into serviceable pieces.

I’m not looking to make the playoffs right away if I’m GM Ron Francis. I’m thinking a slower build that gives them a promising stable of assets is the better way to go and this roster was selected with that in mind. There are some players who could be around for a while, others who can be moved for picks and prospects, and the cap flexibility to quickly pivot if something changes quickly.

Zach Leach

Forwards (15):

Adam Gaudette (CHI)
Joonas Donskoi (COL)
Vladislav Namestnikov (DET)
Cooper Marody (EDM)
Carl Grundstrom (LAK)
Ryan Johansen (NSH)
Kieffer Bellows (NYI)
Julien Gauthier (NYR)
Vitaly Abramov (OTT)
Jason Zucker (PIT)
Dylan Gambrell (SJS)
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL)
Yanni Gourde (TBL)
Jared McCann (TOR)
Jonah Gadjovich (VAN)

Defense (11):

Haydn Fleury (ANA)
Jeremy Lauzon (BOS)
William Borgen (BUF)
Mark Giordano (CGY)
Jake Bean (CAR)
Dean Kukan (CBJ)
Brett Kulak (MTL)
P.K. Subban (NJD)
Justin Braun (PHI)
Brenden Dillon (WSH)
Dylan DeMelo (WPG)

Goaltenders (4):

Josef Korenar (ARI)
Ben Bishop (DAL)
Chris Driedger (FLA)
Kaapo Kahkonen (MIN)

Seattle Kraken GM Ron Francis took a slow, methodical approach to team-building when he was with the Carolina Hurricanes. He very well may do so again in Seattle, but he also knows how important it is for an expansion team to be exciting from the get-go in a new market. Francis can accomplish both by taking advantage of some of the big names available to him on short-term contracts, such as Subban, Tarasenko, and Zucker. Those are names that make the Kraken dangerous right away, but will also result in nice trade returns down the road if Seattle isn’t competing for a playoff spot.

However, the team stands a good chance with supporting players like Gourde, Donskoi, McCann, Namestnikov, Dillon, DeMelo, and more. I tried to balance my picks between stars on short-term deals, affordable long-term deals, high-upside young players to build around, and veteran trade bait like Bishop, Giordano, and Braun, while also selecting some players with ties to Francis or to the Pacific Northwest. I also attempted to give the team some roster flexibility with 30 picks required, taking Abramov (playing in the KHL this year) and goalies Kahkonen and Korenar (both waiver-exempt). The one pick that likely needs the most explaining is Johansen – I simply believe that Nashville has a side deal with Seattle that involves one of their two $8MM centers. I think Johansen can return to form with a change of scenery and wingers like Tarasenko and Zucker wouldn’t hurt.

Josh Erickson

Forwards (15):

Alexander Volkov (ANA)
Nino Niederreiter (CAR)
Joonas Donskoi (COL)
Kevin Stenlund (CBJ)
Tyler Benson (EDM)
Matt Duchene (NSH)
Nicholas Merkley (NJD)
Jordan Eberle (NYI)
Colin Blackwell (NYR)
Evgenii Dadonov (OTT)
Ryan Donato (SJS)
Yanni Gourde (TBL)
Jared McCann (TOR)
Conor Sheary (WSH)
Mason Appleton (WPG)

Defense (11):

Cam Dineen (ARI)
Colin Miller (BUF)
Mark Giordano (CGY)
Anton Lindholm (CHI)
Troy Stecher (DET)
Kale Clague (LAK)
Brett Kulak (MTL)
Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI)
Marcus Pettersson (PIT)
Vince Dunn (STL)
Guillaume Brisebois (VAN)

Goaltenders (4):

Callum Booth (BOS)
Ben Bishop (DAL)
Chris Driedger (FLA)
Kaapo Kahkonen (MIN)

It’s a team with more scoring punch than most expected weeks ago, mostly due to some unexpected exposures (Niederreiter, Dadonov, McCann etc.). There are still some notable omissions here – namely Stenlund over Max Domi from Columbus and Volkov over Adam Henrique for Anaheim. While those would certainly be the better player to select, you just can’t take too many big-money players in this environment. The higher cap hits of Duchene, Eberle, Niederreiter, and Gourde were more palatable. There’s also a bit of a controversial decision in Philadelphia, selecting Gostisbehere over either James van Riemsdyk or Jakub Voracek. He’s younger, cheaper, and on less term than both of the two, and should be poised for a bounce-back, especially under the coach in which he first succeeded. Opted for Kulak over Price for a similar reason – astronomical cap hit and injury concerns made Dallas’ Bishop a more appealing option.

Kahkonen is still waiver-eligible, meaning that Seattle could use him as the third goalie reliably if Bishop is healthy. They wouldn’t risk losing him on waivers. There aren’t really any additional cap dumps or trades needing to be made after this draft, and this team could easily finish at the top of the division and conference in Year 1.

Gavin Lee

Forwards (17):

Michael Bunting (ARI)
Nick Ritchie (BOS)
Joonas Donskoi (COL)
Kevin Stenlund (CBJ)
Evgeny Svechnikov (DET)
Jujhar Khaira (EDM)
Andreas Athanasiou (LAK)
Calle Jarnkrok (NSH)
Nicholas Merkley (NJD)
Jordan Eberle (NYI)
Julien Gauthier (NYR)
Chris Tierney (OTT)
Jason Zucker (PIT)
Dylan Gambrell (SJS)
Yanni Gourde (TBL)
Jared McCann (TOR)
Jake Virtanen (VAN)

Defense (9):

Haydn Fleury (ANA)
William Borgen (BUF)
Mark Giordano (CGY)
Jake Bean (CAR)
Calvin de Haan (CHI)
Brett Kulak (MTL)
Robert Hagg (PHI)
Vince Dunn (STL)
Dylan DeMelo (WPG)

Goaltenders (4):

Ben Bishop (DAL)
Chris Driedger (FLA)
Kaapo Kahkonen (MIN)
Vitek Vanecek (WSH)

I’ve gone with a bit of a different approach than some. I want to be a relatively competitive team right away, to give the market something to cheer for in year one, but I also was careful not to commit to any real long-term contracts. The four years remaining on Gourde’s deal is the only contract on the books through 2024-25, and he was only the choice because the center depth is so weak across the league. The key here is flexibility for GM Ron Francis and head coach Dave Hakstol. At least eight of the forwards selected have experience in the middle at the NHL level, meaning you could even sell some off when the annual race for a third-line pivot comes to pass at the deadline. Bunting’s inclusion is more about Arizona’s available players than the 25-year-old unrestricted free agent’s future. Even if a deal can’t be done, they’ll have a few days to trade his rights to interested parties.

Like Brian and Josh, I passed over the idea of Tarasenko, even though it looks like the Kraken may be interested in selecting and flipping the Russian winger. The same goes for another high-priced talent like Voracek in Philadelphia. Just don’t think it’s worth the opportunity cost of bringing in those contracts. Seattle’s cap flexibility is the greatest weapon they have right now.

In net though, I couldn’t pass up the chance to get Bishop. Sure, he might not be the same or even play due to his injury history, but there isn’t much else available in Dallas. Unless they can get a deal done with a UFA like Jamie Oleksiak or Sami Vatanen, why not take the chance on a goaltender who has one of the best save percentages in history. Even if Bishop doesn’t play, Driedger and Vanecek are good enough to hold the fort for an expansion team, while Kahkonen is still waiver-exempt and can be stashed in the minor leagues.

All four teams we’ve selected likely have a chance to do well in 2021-22, though obviously, the Kraken could start selling off assets immediately and build for a better future down the road.

Expansion| Newsstand| Seattle Kraken Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

19 comments

PHR Mailbag: Kraken, MacKinnon, Entry Draft, Sharks Goaltending, Kings, Centers, Guentzel, Devils, Kuznetsov, Predators

July 18, 2021 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the upcoming expansion draft, Nathan MacKinnon’s future, some Entry Draft predictions, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

Nha Trang: Crystal Ball #2: Is Ron Francis’ intent in Seattle to emulate Vegas and win now, or to put together a team that’ll contend 2-3 years from now?

I suspect Francis is looking ahead a few years but to be fair, I don’t think the Golden Knights went into the process expecting to make a long playoff run in their first season either.  With who all was left unprotected, Seattle could assemble a roster that could make a real run at a playoff spot but they should be looking to accumulate some picks and prospects more than trying to get into the postseason right away.

The way to do that will be to pick some players that can be flipped for value.  Last time, Vegas took some veteran defensemen that went for late picks which is fine (Seattle will probably do the same with a few picks) but there are some top-six forwards available that other teams will part with quality assets to get.  For example, if Tampa Bay doesn’t pay the high price to entice them to take Tyler Johnson, then take and flip Ondrej Palat who, as a rental, will yield a nice return.  Same with Calgary and Mark Giordano.  I’m sure they’ll get some picks for taking on certain contracts as well but moving one or two of their better selections would be a way to differentiate themselves from Vegas and build for the future.

Shjon: How active and/or successful do you think Francis will be during the free agent interview period between the 18th and 21st?

I suspect they’ll be extremely active in terms of speaking with UFAs.  They’ll talk to dozens of them if they can.  They get an opportunity to learn about a bunch of asking prices and if I were them, I’d try to get a couple of agreements in principle in place without actually selecting that player just to add as many assets as possible.

If you define success by how many they actually sign, I’d say they won’t be successful.  Other than Chris Driedger who is the expected selection with a sign and select agreement, I don’t know if they really need to sign anyone else.  They’ll be successful in terms of knowing more about what the UFA market will look like than any other team.  But if they sign a bunch of players, I wouldn’t call it a success in that they will be giving up the opportunity to add other pieces as well.  Fill out the roster with signed players and RFAs to build up the asset base, then supplement it with free agents at the end of the month.

Y2KAK: Who would be the most realistic player going to Seattle? Oshie? Tyler Johnson?

There aren’t many ‘obvious’ selections to make a list of realistic if not likely picks.  Giordano from the Flames seems like the logical selection as someone that could be flipped but Calgary may want to pay to keep him around.  I’d like to put Vince Dunn as a realistic choice as a young defenseman with some offensive pop that’s under team control for a while but Vladimir Tarasenko has to be tempting in terms of trying to improve his value and then flipping him later.

I’ll go with Driedger just with how long he’s been linked to them but if they decide they want to take Carey Price (I don’t think they will, especially with the injury questions now), even Driedger wouldn’t be a certainty as Seattle may not want to tie up that much money between the pipes.  That’s one of the really intriguing elements of this draft is just how many viable ways Seattle can go here.  Each writer here at PHR will be picking a mock team and I expect there will be plenty of varying opinions.

M34: MacKinnon has publicly stated he would take a “cheaper” deal again next time he is up. At that point in his career, and the MVP-caliber status/production, what is his market value? What kind of “lesser” deal is he willing to sign?  Will it make a difference whether or not Colorado wins a Cup between now and then?

Assuming that Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM remains the top bar as it should be, Nathan MacKinnon’s market value should settle in a little below that in the $11.5MM to $12MM range.  John Tavares is basically the only comparable top center to actually sign recently via unrestricted free agency and he signed for $11MM.  MacKinnon is the better player so $11MM becomes the minimum bar to clear if he gets to the open market.  He’ll be 27 at the time of his free agency (turning 28 before the 2023-24 season starts) and still in the prime of his career so while that’s undoubtedly a high price tag, it’d be justifiable for teams to throw it at him.

A hometown discount is always tough to peg for superstar players.  It’s not as if the player can accept a lower AAV for a longer-term deal like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins did; MacKinnon is getting the max (eight years from Colorado, seven from everyone else).  And even in this cap environment, there will be enough teams willing to throw that type of money at him.  Would he take a million less per year than market value?  Maybe but it’d be hard to see the discount being much more than that.

I don’t think it will make much of a difference if they’ve won the Stanley Cup between now and then.  For me, it’s a question of being contenders.  Is Colorado still going to be a consistent threat in the West two years from now?  If the answer to that question is yes (and it should be), then that’s the bigger priority over already having won one.

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: It sounds like almost all draft prospects plan to return to their current teams next year. Are there any notable players who would possibly try the NHL or AHL next year? Also, how much of this is COVID-19 related, as this certainly seems higher than normal?

There are usually only a handful of draft picks to make the jump each year, including the top selection; Mike Modano was the last to not go to the NHL right away and that was in 1988.  With this being a lost development year for a lot of prospects, it’s not shocking that some of the expected top picks are planning on staying where they are for another year and in most cases, I think whoever drafts them would be fine with it.  (I think Buffalo would rather Owen Power turn pro right away so we’ll see if they can make that happen assuming he does indeed go number one.)  Generally speaking, a lot of this should be attributed to COVID-19.

As for trying the AHL, I don’t expect any of the European prospects to try that league while most American prospects will be committed to the college route.  Those are the ones that are eligible to go to that league as anyone picked from the CHL is restricted from joining the AHL until they turn 20 or have four years of service time.

rogueraceseries: Thank you for fielding questions! My head-scratcher is this…. What 2021 draft-eligible prospect will make the biggest leap/splash in this year’s draft? Like Seider jumping to #6 two years ago. Conversely, what player do you think will drop the most? Maybe Caufield as an example (he has had the last laugh this playoff run, hasn’t he? #nhlerstud)

Mason McTavish really seems to be flying up the rankings lately.  A few months ago, he seemed to be at the back of the lottery but all of a sudden, a top-five selection doesn’t appear to be out of the question.  I’ll also toss Sebastian Cossa out as a possibility.  Are there teams that value him higher than Jesper Wallstedt?  If so, he could go a fair bit higher than where most would expect (which, at this point, is probably in the late teens/early twenties).  Two Russians in Danill Chayka and Nikita Chibrikov are other candidates.  Some have them in the second round but if there’s a team that’s sold on his upside, they could land in the teens.

As for who drops, my usual picks for this question each year tend to get picked earlier than normal; the crystal ball doesn’t seem to work well for this one.  I’ll go with Aatu Raty.  Once viewed as a possible top-five pick, his value has dropped considerably.  Some have him in the teens but it wouldn’t shock me if he slides closer to the back of the first round.

Cheechoo56: Assuming we are to believe Doug Wilson’s saying the Sharks are retooling and not rebuilding, are there any free agent goalkeepers that make sense in San Jose (given a potential buyout for Martin Jones and their cap situation)?

It’s not a great year for true number one goalies in free agency and that’s what San Jose really needs.  Philipp Grubauer is the top name out there but his career high in games played is 40.  Whether it’s retooling or rebuilding, the Sharks don’t need someone in their 30s already.  Someone with an opportunity to be around for a few years would be preferable.

If it’s not Grubauer, I’d be looking at Linus Ullmark.  Ullmark has struggled to secure the starting role in Buffalo but San Jose’s back end is a whole different animal.  Perhaps a change of scenery gives him a bit of a boost and if that happens, San Jose would have goaltending that probably checks in just above the league average.  They’d take that in a heartbeat.

Adin Hill is going to be part of the equation now as well but I don’t think he’s ready to be a starter yet or even the 1A guy in a platoon.  They’re still going to need a more proven starter and Jones isn’t it.  I’m not convinced Ullmark will be either but that tandem would certainly put them in the right direction.

Rene vandervelden: Who is a better trade target for the Kings, Jack Eichel or Vladimir Tarasenko?

I’ll go with Tarasenko.  The Kings aren’t really in a spot where they should be parting with a bunch of top young talent to try to win now.  I know that’s what their veteran core wants but it’s not the smart move.  Anze Kopitar is already at $10MM and adding another center at that price point may not be the wisest decision which sours me on Eichel as a fit.  I’m not opposed to the idea of them dealing away one of their many young pivots but not for him.

What I like about Tarasenko is that his trade value shouldn’t be all that high.  He wants out, he has had shoulder trouble the last few years, and his contract at $7.5MM is too expensive for most teams to absorb.  The Kings can take on that deal without offsets which gives them a leg up.  Is there a risk to Tarasenko?  Absolutely.  But there’s also the potential for a high reward and at what would appear to be a below-market acquisition cost, there’s a chance for them to upgrade the roster without losing key parts of the future.  That’s the sweet spot I’m looking for if I’m GM Rob Blake.

@FritzLiebich: Are the LA Kings ready to contend or are they 2-3 players away? Who should the Kings target by way of UFA or trade?

There is an opportunity for Los Angeles to be a playoff contender next season but by that, I mean a team that’s in a battle for a Wild Card spot.  That’s not really true contention and it’s why I just advocated against making a big splash on the trade market with Eichel.  But I do like the idea of them trying to add and the Viktor Arvidsson pickup certainly made sense.

I’d be looking for veteran bridge players if I was Blake, players that can upgrade the roster now but also be expendable in a trade if one of their many young prospects is ready for a bigger role.  That means players on short-term contracts unless they’re adding someone that they think could still be a quality contributor a few years from now.

They could go for a free agent but I like the trade route better.  Many teams are looking to dump contracts which means there will be opportunities to add roster upgrades at below-market costs such as Tarasenko above.  Target Tampa Bay as they have several pricey veterans that need to be moved for cap reasons; they can’t command full value.  As an example, Alex Killorn would be another nice addition on the wing.  The Islanders may want to shed some money based on who they left unprotected.  Jordan Eberle’s contract is a bit long for my liking (three more years) but would fill a positional need.  They’re not getting these types of players for free but they won’t be paying a premium either and won’t have to sign someone to a longer-term contract that wouldn’t be advisable based on where they are.  They’d improve the team and not mortgage the future in terms of assets or cap flexibility.

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WalterNYR: What center is out there, besides Eichel, that the Rangers could try to trade for? Hertl, Dvorak, Horvat or someone similar?

Of the three you listed, Christian Dvorak from Arizona could very well be in play with the Coyotes looking to shed payroll.  After two cheaper years at the start of the deal, three of the remaining four years carry a salary of over $5MM with the AAV staying at $4.45MM.  Had it been a full season, the 25-year-old likely would have had a career year offensively and has very quietly emerged as a top-six center.  Is he a top-line guy on most teams?  Probably not but with both of New York’s top pivots eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer, having someone with four years of team control would certainly help GM Chris Drury.

There’s no reason for Vancouver to move Bo Horvat while Tomas Hertl is a UFA next summer.  I like him more as a target for the Rangers at that time than this offseason.  One name that’s out there that you didn’t mention is Washington’s Evgeny Kuznetsov.  He’s coming off a tough year and has four years left at $7.8MM which is a bit on the expensive side for his dip in production but he’d be a very intriguing fit although it’s unlikely they’d be able to afford both him and Mika Zibanejad long term.

@SamBrad86138703: Does Jake Guentzel get traded this summer?

I know Pittsburgh wants to free up some cap space but Guentzel doesn’t feel like the right one to move to accomplish that particular objective.  The 26-year-old has basically been a point per game player over the past three years and his $6MM AAV is more than reasonable for that level of production.  If anything, it’s a below-market price tag.  He fits on their top line so I don’t see a point in moving him.

Jason Zucker, on the other hand, very much feels like a possibility to be traded if he’s not selected by Seattle.  It hasn’t worked out with the Penguins but he still has a solid track record going back to his time with Minnesota.  $5.5MM is too expensive for how he has performed but if there’s a way to get someone that makes a bit less back that can still contribute on their second line, that would give GM Ron Hextall some much-needed flexibility.  It’ll be nowhere near what they gave up for him which will sting but Hextall isn’t connected to this deal like former GM Jim Rutherford was so there’s less incentive to try to hold on and hope that Zucker’s value shoots back up.

jamincito: Do the Devils add anything of significance this season? A lot of fans say wait till the kids are ready but the kids have actually played the last two seasons and they haven’t been good or people say wait till Jack and Nico are ready, but they won’t do that without the right players, so do they add anything of value?

They’ve added Ryan Graves since this question was posted which is a nice start.  He’ll help their back end and is on a reasonable contract.  I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s another defensive pickup as well.

I do expect bigger moves from them than that, however.  They have more than ample cap space at a time when few teams have big money to spend.  They can’t not use that to their advantage.  If they’re taking on cap dumps from other teams, they’re going to upgrade the floor of their team at an absolute minimum (the players they’d get would still be upgrades somewhere) and add some pieces for the future as well.  I think they will land a top-10 free agent as well since they’ll be able to outbid pretty much everyone.

I don’t expect them to be making a bunch of moves with an eye on achieving a playoff spot next season as they’re not ready for that yet.  But will they add some veterans and make themselves more competitive for 2021-22, getting things pointed in the right direction in the process.

2012orioles: Could the Canadiens be a destination for Kuznetsov? What would the return look like?

Before the Shea Weber news which could see him miss the entire season and allow them to spend up to his $7.857MM AAV over the cap, I would have said no, they’re not a viable destination.  Now that they could have that money, it’s a little more possible but I’d still say improbable.

Nick Suzuki is a year away from what looks like will be a pretty pricey contract.  Jesperi Kotkaniemi is still going to land a decent-sized raise this summer as a restricted free agent (likely a bridge deal) and could get much more expensive after that.  Can they afford a $7.8MM contract down the middle in Kuznetsov on top of that?  I don’t think so, nor do I believe they’d want to move Kotkaniemi as part of a move to get him (Suzuki would almost certainly be off the table).  And from Washington’s perspective, there’s not much of a reason to move Kuznetsov to Montreal without getting a young center in return.

If Washington wanted to do something involving Jonathan Drouin and his $5.5MM price tag for two more years, that’s something the Canadiens would likely entertain.  I don’t know why the Capitals would though which is why I don’t see a good trade fit for Kuznetsov with Montreal.

Gbear: What scoring forward do you think the Preds will go after this summer or have a realistic chance of getting?

The way they are shaking up their core is quite something.  Are they freeing up contracts for budgetary reasons or to make a real run at someone notable?  If it’s the latter and they want a culture change, Gabriel Landeskog feels like a target.  They can afford to bid a higher price, he comes from a winning environment, can score, and plays a well-rounded game.  That seems like the type of player to bring in if GM David Poile is looking to make an impact.  But while I suspect they’ll go after him, I’m not sure it’s the most realistic fit.

Brandon Saad and Zach Hyman are in that next tier of wingers (I don’t see them doing much up the middle as I doubt Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene go anywhere meaning their top two would remain intact) and they may be more realistic targets.  They can fit on a top line or certainly help a second trio as well and help fill the void filled by the Arvidsson trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Offseason Checklist: Colorado Avalanche

July 18, 2021 at 6:56 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 11 Comments

The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what each team needs to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Colorado.

This was a season that some felt might be Colorado’s best time to take a run at the Stanley Cup with some core players on team-friendly contracts, allowing them the flexibility to add Brandon Saad last offseason.  However, things didn’t go as planned as they were eliminated by Vegas in the second round.  Now, GM Joe Sakic has considerable cap room at his disposal but several key players in need of new deals.  Accordingly, Colorado’s checklist this summer revolves primarily around those pending free agents.

Re-Sign Makar

Before digging into the notable UFAs, let’s look at the big RFA first.  Makar has been an impact player since joining the Avs for the 2019 playoffs where he left college and played a regular role right away.  From there, he has become one of the most dynamic offensive threats in the league from the back end and was the runner up in Norris Trophy voting while recording 44 points in 44 games this past season.

Generally speaking, players that don’t have the longest of track records typically can’t command the long-term, big-money contract.  Makar technically falls into this category as two abbreviated regular seasons have left him with just 101 regular season contests under his belt, roughly a year and a quarter of a full 82-game campaign.  However, how much more does he really have to prove at this point?  He’s already a premier talent and that’s not going to change.

Accordingly, Makar should be one of the exceptions to the rule in that someone with that few games played can command a long-term deal if he wants one (which isn’t a guarantee with the current cap landscape).  There aren’t many comparable players to work from but Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot had inked the richest post-entry-level contract by a defenseman at eight years and $64MM.  That just changed with the eight-year, $67.6MM deal that Dallas gave to Miro Heiskanen on Saturday.  If he gets a max-term contract, his agent will undoubtedly be working off the templates of these two deals.

Sign A Starting Goalie

Three goalies posted a goals against average below two in 2020-21.  One won the Vezina, one played a dominant half-season in Carolina, and the other is Philipp Grubauer whose timing for such a season was perfect as he’s set to hit the open market later this month.  He now stands atop the free agent class for goaltenders which has him well-positioned for a substantial raise on the $3.33MM AAV he had on his most recent contract.  Considering some of the goalies that have signed in recent years such as Matt Murray, Jordan Binnington, and Jacob Markstrom, Grubauer has a legitimate chance of doubling his previous price tag despite never playing more than 40 games in a season, a mark he reached this year for the first time.

One question for Colorado is can they afford to pay their starter that much knowing they need to save big money for Makar’s deal, the fact they have another key UFA to bring back (more on him shortly), and have Nathan MacKinnon up for a lucrative new contract two years from now.  They can only afford so many big-ticket deals on the books.

However, can they afford to not bring Grubauer back?  There is plenty of uncertainty with backup Pavel Francouz who missed the entire season due to a lower-body injury and it’s not as if he’s particularly proven in the NHL with all of 36 career NHL regular season contests.  They need a proven starter and while Grubauer doesn’t have the longest track record, it’s a better one than any of the other viable free agents out there.  They don’t need elite-level goaltending with the caliber of the team in front of him and keeping Grubauer around would give them some long-term stability between the pipes.

If they can’t agree to terms with him, the plan may shift to trying a short-term platoon and there are enough veterans available to make this an option.  It’s not a long-term solution though and shouldn’t be their primary plan heading into free agency while the trade market could yield some more intriguing options at a higher acquisition cost.  This will need to be addressed quickly as it’s hard to see any viable options left by the time the calendar flips to August.

Re-Sign Or Replace Landeskog

Onto the other significant pending UFA.  Gabriel Landeskog has been a fixture in Colorado’s lineup for the last decade after being the second-overall pick in 2011.  He has spent the majority of his time on their top line and has been on a bargain contract throughout his career as after his entry-level deal expired, he played on a seven-year deal with a $5.571MM cap hit which is certainly below market value for a top liner.  The captain has made it clear that he wants to stay and has even publicly voiced his frustration over the fact a deal isn’t done.

So what’s the holdup?  Salary is one thing – he’s heading for a raise in Colorado or elsewhere despite the reported recent offers from the Avs – but speculatively, I think the term of a new deal may be the bigger issue in discussions.  Yes, Landeskog is only 28 but with over 700 career games played (regular season and playoffs), that’s a fair bit of mileage.  He also plays a rugged style, one that doesn’t necessarily tend to age well which adds a layer of risk to any deal that approaches the eight-year maximum which is why the reported eight-year offer from the Avalanche to Landeskog is as low as it is.  Is there a happy medium that takes a year or two off the term of the contract but keeps it at an affordable price point for the team?  Having that option could very well push things along.

If they can’t work out an agreement, that’s a big hole for the Avalanche to fill.  Re-signing Saad becomes a more viable option but if not, they could be a player in free agency to try to find someone to step onto the top line.  But there are still nearly two weeks before Landeskog gets to the open market.  It’s hard to see Colorado giving up on the prospect of re-signing their captain until he puts pen to paper elsewhere.

Center Decisions

With MacKinnon in place, there are no questions about their top center.  J.T. Compher is still in the mix for now although we’ll see what happens with him being made available to Seattle.  Things could change fairly quickly after that, however.

Nazem Kadri is coming off another quality season on the second line and is signed for this season with a $4.5MM price tag before becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer.  Of course, the question stems from what happened in the playoffs when he received an eight-game suspension for an illegal check to the head on Blues defenseman Justin Faulk.  It wasn’t his first notable incident either and the number of games per suspension is going up from here.  Is Colorado prepared to move forward with him or will they be better off trying someone else who could be a longer-term option in that role?

Then there’s Tyson Jost.  He was the tenth-overall pick in 2016 but he hasn’t been able to establish himself as more than a role player.  He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this summer after accepting his qualifying offer in the fall but his projected role hasn’t changed as he’s still a bottom-six option.  Now 23, is he someone that would be better suited with a change of scenery?  They’d be selling low but another year like his last few would send Jost’s value even lower.

There’s also Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, their fourth-line pivot for the last two years who is set to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month.  He isn’t a major point producer but has been a fixture on their penalty kill and well above average at the faceoff dot.  He’s also 36 and clearly not in anyone’s long-term plans.  Is that spot better suited for someone closer to the league minimum or someone younger?  At this point, it seems like he won’t be back.

Sakic will have some decisions to make about his middlemen in the coming weeks.  The end result could be a group that’s a fair bit different than the one that finished up the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche| Offseason Checklist 2021 Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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