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Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins

at CDT | by 20 Comments

Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the Boston Bruins were able to protect all of their key forwards but had to make a difficult choice of who to protect on defense other than Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug. The third spot came down to physical veteran Kevan Miller and skilled youngster Colin Miller. It was a lose-lose, as whoever they did not protect was expected to be selected by the Vegas Golden Knights. The Bruins opted to stay loyal to the veteran and watched a promising young blue liner find success elsewhere.

This time around, the Bruins are again able to protect their most valuable assets, with a little luck from some timely expiring contracts, and this time around don’t have any hard choices to make on defense. Yet, the team will again have to expose talented young defensemen and very likely will suffer another tough loss.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Charlie Coyle (NMC), Brad Marchand (NMC), Peter Cehlarik, Jake DeBrusk, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, Cameron Hughes, Ondrej Kase, Joona Koppanen, Karson Kuhlman, Curtis Lazar, David Pastrnak, Nick Ritchie, Zach Senyshyn, Craig Smith, Chris Wagner

Defense:
|Linus Arnesson, Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, Matt Grzelcyk, Jeremy Lauzon, Charlie McAvoy, John Moore, Jakub Zboril

Goalies:
Callum Booth, Daniel Vladar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jaroslav Halak, F Taylor Hall, F David Krejci, F Sean Kuraly, D Kevan Miller, G Tuukka Rask, D Mike Reilly

Notable Exemptions

F John Beecher, G Jeremy Swayman, F Jack Studnicka, D Urho Vaakanainen

Key Decisions

The Bruins are guaranteed to lose a good player to the Seattle Kraken, but it could be much worse. Career Bruins Krejci and Rask, who are still playing at an elite level, are currently unrestricted free agents and have essentially made it known that they will play only in Boston or else retire. The duo would have no choice if under contract and exposed in the Expansion Draft, but their long-term contracts expired just in time. Trade Deadline addition Hall, who proved to be a terrific fit, is also a UFA and has expressed interest in re-signing in Boston. Seattle is unlikely to select the former MVP if his mind is set on staying with the Bruins. Even valuable depth pieces who are not necessarily locks to re-sign with Boston but have at least discussed the possibility, such as Kuraly, Miller, and Reilly, are currently free agents and have free will over their next move whether selected by the Kraken or not. The Bruins essentially have lucked into upwards of six additional protection slots by way of timely free agency for players who would like to return to Boston.

With the actual protection slots that the team does have, many of the decisions have been made for them. No-Movement Clauses for icons Bergeron and Marchand, as well as local product Coyle, will keep the trio protected. Bergeron and Marchand would have been obvious protections anyway and, even after a down year, the versatile, two-way Coyle likely would have been as well, in hopes that he returns to form following much-needed knee repairs this off-season. In net, by default the team will keep promising young goaltender Vladar as starter Rask and backup Halak are free agents, future starter Swayman is exempt, and minor leaguer Booth was seemingly signed for the exact purpose of meeting the exposure requirements.

Elsewhere on the roster there are some automatic protections as well. Young stars McAvoy and Pastrnak are no-brainers for protection, especially after both were nearly NHL All-Star selections this year. Carlo, another standout young defenseman, will also surely be protected, as will veteran winger Smith who the team just signed to a bargain, multi-year deal last off-season.

On defense, there is one spot open and while there may have been some debate as to who to protect before this season, Grzelcyk quickly ended that conversation. The 27-year-old puck-mover had a career year across the board as he stepped into the void left by Krug’s free agency departure and proved himself invaluable to the Bruins. Had he failed to do so, he may not have been the easy choice with other younger defenders in the mix.

While Boston is surely happy that they can protect the only defensemen under contract who have proven themselves as top-four options, and also have some potential UFA returners and exempt prospects who could play key roles next season, the team is still set up to possibly take a big loss on the blue line in the draft. Exposing all three of Lauzon, Zboril, and Clifton gives Seattle multiple young options to consider stealing from the Bruins. Lauzon would be the biggest hit, definitely on defense but possibly on the whole roster. The 24-year-old is a reliable defensive presence who is dominant on the penalty kill, is physical, and is not a liability moving the puck or contributing in the offensive zone. He may not have enormous upside, but could be an NHL starter for many years to come. Zboril, also 24, finished seventh in voting for the NHL’s All-Rookie team this year and was one of the AHL’s top defensemen last year. While he did not do as much with his opportunity this season compared to Lauzon, Zboril is a balanced defenseman with arguably more upside that Lauzon who could take a major step forward once he overcomes some bad tendencies and polishes his game. Clifton, though unlikely to play above the bottom pair in the NHL, plays a physical, high-intensity brand of hockey that makes him a refreshing addition to the lineup as an extra man. While he is limited in some areas, Clifton is nevertheless an eye-catching presence on the ice. Any of the three affordable young blue liners would be unsurprising selections by Seattle.

In contrast, the forwards remaining – especially with two protection slots yet to be claimed – are far less likely to be chosen. For starters, the biggest available name, DeBrusk, will not be available. Despite a very poor 2020-21 campaign, DeBrusk is still a 24-year-old forward with a 27-goal season and two 40+ point seasons on his resume. In DeBrusk’s first three seasons, he played at an 82-game pace of 25 goals and 49 points. While his production this season was far from that mark, the Bruins are not ready to give up on him that easy. At $3.675MM on the final year of his current contract, DeBrusk is a palatable cap hit in exchange for the upside. While it is true that he may need a chance of scenery, the Bruins will not just give him away; they will hold out for a fair trade or not move him at all. If DeBrusk is still a Bruin by this weekend, he will almost definitely be protected.

One spot left up front and so many options. All have their reasons for, but also have reasons against protection. Of the remaining group of available names, Ritchie was far and away the top scorer. However, the big winger’s production was heavily weighted on his early season power play role. As the year wore on, Ritchie’s production disappeared and by the end of the playoffs he had been demoted to the fourth line. A restricted free agent with limited ability given his offensive and defensive shortcomings, the Bruins can hope that Seattle bites based on Ritchie’s goal scoring numbers this year, but it is unlikely. Even if the team wants him back, they will probably not protect him.

The same goes for Kase. On talent alone, Kase should be protected and if left unprotected should be the obvious selection for the Kraken. However, his injury history makes both teams wary. Kase missed all but three games this season due to concussion issues and his future is unknown. The Bruins may want to keep Kase around after trading for him just last year, but not at his $2.6MM qualifying offer given the injury risk, meaning they likely plan to make him an unrestricted free agent anyway. Also knowing Seattle is unlikely to risk an expansion selection on a player who may never be healthy, it would be surprising to see Kase protected.

Seemingly just a throw-in to the Hall trade, Lazar was a great fit with the Bruins down the stretch and in the postseason and if not selected in the Expansion Draft looks to anchor the fourth line and contribute to the penalty kill in Boston next year. However, he is one year away from unrestricted free agency and has bounced around the NHL with limited sustained success in his young career. The Bruins are unlikely to protect him and know Seattle is unlikely to select him for the same reasons. As for fellow fourth liner Wagner, the local product was worth a multi-year deal at $1.35MM AAV to the Bruins, but not to most other teams. Expecting the Kraken to pass, the Bruins probably do not protect Wagner. The team also knows that in the event that Lazar or Wagner are in fact taken by Seattle, they have plenty of defensive-minded forwards waiting in the AHL for opportunity.

So who gets the final protection slot? The smart money is on young Frederic. The 2016 first-round pick is a budding fan favorite in Boston with his hard-nosed style and willingness to drop the gloves. Frederic also showed good offensive ability in the NCAA and AHL prior to his arrival as an NHL regular this season. He still has some holes to his game with growing left to do, but the Bruins lacked grit and physicality at times this season and know they can get at least that from Frederic, if not more. With a higher ceiling than any other bottom-six forward in consideration (not including a healthy Kase), Frederic offers the most potential value to the Bruins.

Projected Protection List

F Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
F Charlie Coyle (NMC)
F Jake DeBrusk
F Trent Frederic
F Brad Marchand (NMC)
F David Pastrnak
F Craig Smith

D Brandon Carlo
D Matt Grzelcyk
D Charlie McAvoy

G Daniel Vladar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Curtis Lazar, Chris Wagner
Defensemen (3): Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon, Jakub Zboril

The Seattle Kraken are not holding their breath about the Bruins’ protection list. They know that regardless of the final decisions they are getting a good player, even with Boston protecting their core. That could be a promising young defenseman like Lauzon or Zboril, a bottom of the lineup role player like Ritchie, Wagner, or Clifton, or maybe even a high-ceiling, low-floor risk in Kase. Seattle could also have plans to offer a godfather deal to one of the Bruins’ impending free agents, with Hall obviously the most intriguing of the bunch, or to use the sheer number of possible expansion losses as a way to goad Boston into making a side deal to select a certain player at a cost (Moore perhaps?). Regardless of the result, the Kraken will get something good from the Bruins.

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Things aren’t completely off the rails in Philadelphia after a disappointing season, but there are some big decisions to be made on the direction of the franchise. 

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Nolan Patrick – Can Patrick overcome his injury issues and become a core piece for the Flyers? Some have already labeled the 2017 second-overall pick as a bust and have written him off completely, while others believe with time and patience he could still become a valuable asset. Philadelphia’s front office is going to need to make that decision this summer as Patrick enters restricted free agency once again, this time coming off a brutal performance. Last summer, the young forward was negotiating a deal after missing the entire 2019-20 season due to a migraine issue and ended up signing for his qualifying offer amount. Given that he’s still ineligible for arbitration and scored just nine points in 52 games, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that. If anything, it seems like a change of scenery might benefit both parties, as long as the Flyers received something valuable in return. There’s a lot of work to do for the 22-year-old forward to prove he can still be even a middle-six center at the NHL level, let alone the star he was supposed to be.

D Travis Sanheim – There’s a trend in these RFA cases for the Flyers, as all of them are players that were supposed to be key contributors this season but ended up having down years. Sanheim was supposed to step into a bigger role for the team in his fourth season and build off the success he had in the past. Instead, he recorded just 15 points in 55 games and registered the worst possession stats of his career. That’s not to say Sanheim is playing his way off the team, quite the opposite, as he has established a spot on the second pair, but the breakout that was expected never came. His last deal, a two-year contract in 2019 worth $6.5MM total, was supposed to be a bridge to a big RFA deal this summer. But how big can the Flyers really go for a player that, while valuable, hasn’t improved much over the last two seasons. An interesting option for both sides might even be arbitration, giving Sanheim a one-year deal at a slightly higher number. It would leave him just a year from unrestricted free agency, but also give him a chance to show he still does have some of that top-pairing upside left in him.

G Carter Hart – Speaking of players coming off down years, it’s hard to know just how much money Hart cost himself this season. The 22-year-old goaltender is still the future in Philadelphia, but after posting an .877 save percentage in 27 appearances, just nine of them wins, he’s suddenly a risky investment. If the Flyers try to get a multi-year contract done with the young netminder, it will have to be on a contract that makes sense even if he fails to take back the workhorse role. There’s no way they can invest starter money in Hart after a season like that, and they won’t have to, given he’s not yet eligible for arbitration. Philadelphia could slow play this if they want, and force Hart to accept a short-term deal around his qualifying offer, but they could also try to lock him in for a few years at a depressed price, betting on a rebound. It’s a tough situation for the player side too, not wanting to throw away too much earning potential, but also knowing that his role in the organization could be in jeopardy with another bad season or two.

Other RFAs: F Pascal Laberge, F Connor Bunnaman, F David Kase

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Samuel Morin – It’s tough to watch Morin now, knowing that there was so much potential in that 6’6″ frame when the Flyers selected him 11th overall in 2013. Though his size and physicality were always the focus, the drastically improved skating of Morin was supposed to translate into a true shutdown defender for Philadelphia. Multiple major knee surgeries later and Morin was forced to make the switch to forward, claiming he wanted to be the next Matt Martin, offering a simple game but adding physicality to the lineup every night. It didn’t pan out, and Morin played just 20 games this season, recording a single goal (his NHL first) and 38 hits. A positionless part-time enforcer is not what 11th overall picks usually turn out to be, and now Morin hits Group VI UFA status with no clear future.

G Brian Elliott – Hart was bad and Elliott wasn’t much better this season, posting his second straight year with a save percentage under .900. It’s been a long career for the 36-year-old goaltender and from all accounts, he is beloved in Philadelphia, but the team desperately needs some consistency in net moving forward. There will be many other options for the team to go after this summer, even if the focus is still on Hart getting back to his early performance. If the team comes back with the same duo, it’s hard to expect different results at this point.

Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, D Matt Niskanen (retired), D Derrick Pouliot, D Tyler Wotherspoon, D Nate Prosser, D Chris Bigras, G Alex Lyon

Projected Cap Space

With more than $68.4MM committed to 17 players, the Flyers have just over $13MM left to work with this offseason. That could grow substantially if they can convince the Seattle Kraken to take Jakub Voracek or trade him elsewhere, but for now they don’t have a ton of money to work with. Remember, captain Claude Giroux and top center Sean Couturier are both pending unrestricted free agents after this season and will need extensions if the Flyers want to keep them around, meaning any long-term money they spend in free agency will have to be done with careful consideration.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

When the Buffalo Sabres last faced an expansion draft, they were coming off a last-place finish in the Atlantic Division and didn’t have a ton of high-end talent to protect. Names like Tyler Ennis and Johan Larsson ended up being protected over a little-known rookie named William Carrier, who would go on to become a fan favorite in Vegas. The 6’2″ Carrier is an absolute wrecking ball on the ice and has racked up 734 hits in his 214 regular season games with the Golden Knights. Though the team will obviously try to avoid making the same mistake, there are some interesting decisions to be made in Buffalo this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner (NMC), Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons, Anders Bjork, Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Asplund, Andrew Oglevie

Defense:

Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller, Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, William Borgen

Goalies:

Dustin Tokarski

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Drake Caggiula, F Tobias Rieder, D Jake McCabe, G Linus Ullmark, G Carter Hutton

Notable Exemptions

F Arttu Ruotsalainen, F Dylan Cozens, G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Key Decisions

This expansion primer could be made obsolete at any moment, given the offseason that is about to start in Buffalo. The team has had extensive trade talks about Eichel, Reinhart and Ristolainen, three players who were once considered building blocks for the franchise. If any of them are moved before the draft, things could be drastically altered.

But if things stay the same for the next few days? There are some tough decisions to make.

At forward, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittelstadt and Olofsson are easy choices for protection. Skinner’s no-movement clause makes him a must-protect, even though the Sabres would obviously like to leave him exposed. That leaves just two spots for the trio of Thompson, Bjork and Asplund, who have all shown flashes of high-end NHL potential but have lacked consistency. The 23-year-old Thompson has spent the most time in Buffalo, arriving from the St. Louis Blues in 2018 and playing 104 games with the team. He signed a three-year, $4.2MM deal in 2020 and registered 14 points in 38 games this season. There are a lot of questions surrounding Thompson’s game, but the 6’7″ forward will still likely get at least one more kick at the can in Buffalo, so protection is warranted.

For Bjork, things aren’t so dissimilar. He came in the Taylor Hall trade this season and is signed through the 2022-23 season on a three-year, $4.8MM deal. He had six points in 15 games after arriving in Buffalo and it would be hard to watch him snatched up by Seattle just a few months after arriving in such a major trade.

That leaves Asplund on the outside looking in, but who knows if Seattle would even have any interest. The 23-year-old has registered eight goals and 14 points in 57 career games, splitting this season between Buffalo, Rochester and Sweden. There is real offensive potential in Asplund, but as a restricted free agent without a ton of experience under his belt, might be passed over without much attention anyway.

On defense, Dahlin leads the way as an obvious choice, but things are a little cloudier after that. Jokiharju likely deserves protection after showing some signs of improvement late in the season, but he was also a huge disappointment early on. His lack of development was a huge problem for the Sabres this season, even if he is still definitely young enough to continue to improve.

It’s the third spot that becomes completely unclear at this point, given that Ristolainen is still on the roster. The team appears to have an NHL-ready replacement in Borgen, but he has just 14 games of experience under his belt to this point. Leaving Ristolainen unprotected would essentially be handing a valuable asset over to Seattle, even if his time with the Sabres organization has come to an end. A trade makes sense, but as of now Ristolainen is still on the roster and needs that final protection spot.

One thing to point out is that Buffalo spent a sixth-round pick last expansion draft to protect an extra goaltender, keeping Vegas away from Ullmark while protecting future Golden Knight Robin Lehner. This time they don’t have anything to worry about in the goaltending situation with no one even signed, but perhaps they could do something similar to protect Asplund or Borgen, if necessary. There’s also the possibility that the Kraken decide to sign one of Buffalo’s free agents, namely Ullmark, if they believe him to be the most valuable option. The team has a short window before the draft to negotiate with pending UFAs, but it would count as their selection from the Sabres. Unlike some of the other free agents around the league, there’s no expansion issue stopping Buffalo from re-signing their starter—in fact, they don’t even have a goaltender under contract to protect at all, since Tokarski must be left exposed to fill the requirements.

Projected Protection List

F Jack Eichel
F Jeff Skinner (NMC)
F Sam Reinhart
F Victor Olofsson
F Tage Thompson
F Casey Mittelstadt
F Anders Bjork

D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Rasmus Dahlin
D Henri Jokiharju

G (none)

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Kyle Okposo, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons
Defensemen (1): Colin Miller

The Sabres are fine for their protection requirements, though Miller’s exposure does post an interesting option for the Kraken. He of course was the Golden Knights’ selection from the Boston Bruins last time around, and ended up netting Vegas a second and fifth-round pick from Buffalo after putting up some big numbers in increased minutes. At just 28, is it unthinkable that the Kraken could try to pull off a similar trick with the right-shot defenseman, pulling him out of the struggling Sabres shadow and giving him prime offensive minutes on an expansion roster?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

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The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Carolina.

The Hurricanes had a strong regular season, finishing first in the Central Division while slotting in third overall.  However, it didn’t result in the playoff success that they were looking for as they were ousted in the second round by the eventual Stanley Cup champion in Tampa Bay.  Now, GM Don Waddell enters the summer with ample cap space at his disposal – more than $29MM – but also some key areas to address which are noted on their offseason checklist.

Resolve The Hamilton Situation

Carolina made headlines last month when they gave pending UFA Dougie Hamilton permission to speak to other clubs early, basically giving him a head start on free agency.  It’s an interesting move but it was necessitated by a sizable gap in contract talks.  It allows Hamilton to see if he can get the contract his camp thinks he’s worth and if so, creates the potential for Carolina to try to get something in return for his rights.

The only card the Hurricanes have to play is that they can give Hamilton the extra year in basically what would amount to a sign-and-trade agreement.  Otherwise, the negotiation rights on their own are only going to be worth a mid to late-round draft pick.  That’s still better than losing him for nothing but it wouldn’t be much of a return.

If that happens, Waddell will likely need to turn towards trying to replace Hamilton.  He’d be a big loss but at the same time, they should be bracing themselves to lose a defenseman to Seattle as well – one of Jake Bean or Brady Skjei – so there would be multiple holes to try to fill.  There aren’t many impact blueliners on the open market so it may have to be addressed by a trade.

On the other hand, if Hamilton’s discussions with other teams don’t prove as fruitful as he hopes and the offers aren’t as strong as he hoped for, it’s quite possible he circles back and tries to work out a new deal with Carolina.  If that’s the case, the window to do something will be limited as they’d likely want to wait until after expansion to sign him; that leaves one week to work a new deal out before the calendar flips to the new league year and with it, the ability to give him the extra year on his contract.

Make Goaltending Decisions

Carolina successfully managed to juggle three quality goaltenders down the stretch but that’s a strategy that isn’t going to be viable over the course of a full season.  Accordingly, there are decisions to be made on all fronts.

Alex Nedeljkovic went from being passed on by every team in the league on waivers to their starter late in the year and in the playoffs.  In doing so, he played enough games for the Hurricanes to retain his rights as a restricted free agent but with that carries arbitration eligibility.  A recent report suggested that the team is at least kicking around the possibility of non-tendering him to avoid the risk of an arbitration award that’s too high for their liking.  That wouldn’t preclude him from signing a new deal – it’s a route that teams have increasingly taken in recent years to keep their players – but it also creates an opportunity for him to hit the open market.  Are they committed to him as their starter?  With such a small track record (less than 30 career regular season games), that’s a hard commitment to make.  Are they ready to commit a year or two with a significant raise to keep him around?  They have a few weeks to make that call still.

The question then becomes which of their unrestricted free agents do they keep around.  Petr Mrazek has the better recent track record but is he going to get an opportunity to have a bigger role than a platoon goalie?  There are enough vacancies around the league that makes it a legitimate possibility which could price him out of Carolina’s desired price range.  That could open the door for James Reimer to stick around.  He’s not at the top end of the backup/platoon goalies out there but still shouldn’t be facing too substantial of a pay cut from the $3.1MM salary he made this season.

Of course, with 11 goalies in unrestricted free agency playing in at least 20 of 56 games this season, Waddell could opt to change things up and bring in a newcomer.  There is a possibility that two of the three goalies come back.  There’s a possibility that none of them do.  Given how quickly the spending happens on goalies in free agency, this is a decision that will be made soon.

Re-Sign Svechnikov

A new deal for winger Andrei Svechnikov was something Waddell was hoping to get done last fall but it didn’t happen.  Instead, the 21-year-old will hit restricted free agency for the first time but will not have salary arbitration eligibility.

With all of that cap room, it appears that they have the ability to give him a max-term deal if they wanted but a lot depends on their internal budget; will they be a cap-spending team?  And from Svechnikov’s perspective, is this the right financial environment to lock in a contract that buys out some UFA years?  Such a deal would put him over $7MM annually in all likelihood but he’s coming off a quieter year than his sophomore campaign.  Would a bridge contract make more sense, allowing him to ideally get another strong couple of years under his belt, become eligible for arbitration, and work out a new deal as the salary cap starts to increase?  At this point, this seems like the likeliest outcome.

Such a move can often take time.  Without any other leverage beyond the remote possibility of an offer sheet (and Carolina matched the last one quite quickly), all Svechnikov can do if he doesn’t like the status of negotiations is wait and hope that Waddell ups his offer.  Patience may be required on this front but a deal that boosts his price tag beyond the $3.575MM he could have earned by maxing out on his bonuses will be forthcoming.

Utilize Cap Space

Even by the time they re-sign or replace Hamilton, figure out their goalies, and leave enough room for Svechnikov, Carolina will have ample space to work with.  They’ll need to reshape their bottom six with a trio of pending UFAs there (Jordan Martinook, Brock McGinn, and Cedric Paquette) but there will be an opportunity to add another asset even after addressing their other areas.  If they’re going to be a budget team, their best bet may be taking on a contract with a higher AAV than salary and leverage that into adding another asset on top of the player.  If they are spending to the cap, however, they could be a sneaky presence in free agency and even one impact addition could vault them into contention as they return to the Metropolitan Division next year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Calgary Flames

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Calgary Flames faced an expansion draft, they had an ace up their sleeve. Deryk Engelland was a pending unrestricted free agent, coming off a three-year deal with the team. He was 35 and on the back end of his career though, meaning there was no guarantee Calgary would even be interested in retaining him. It didn’t matter, as Engelland was also a Las Vegas local, having played there during his minor league career and fallen in love with the city. The Golden Knights would sign him to a one-year, $1MM deal (with performance bonuses) and use him as an unofficial captain, helping the other players transition to life in the desert.

This year, interestingly enough, the team has another veteran free agent from the expansion area (okay, Spokane’s not exactly Seattle, is it?) in Derek Ryan. Can they pull off the same trick twice? Or will the Flames actually lose a piece of their roster this time?

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Milan Lucic (NMC), Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube, Matthew Phillips, Byron Froese, Glenn Gawdin, Justin Kirkland, Dominik Simon

Defense:

Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington

Goalies:

Jacob Markstrom (NMC), Tyler Parsons

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Derek Ryan, F Josh Leivo, D Michael Stone, G Louis Domingue

Notable Exemptions

F Adam Ruzicka, D Juuso Valimaki, D Connor Mackey

Key Decisions

The Flames only really have one tough decision when it comes to the draft, and that’s what to do on defense. Hanifin, Andersson and Tanev are all the logical choices to protect, given their importance to the franchise and contract status. All three are signed through at least 2024, with Andersson even longer than that. If the Flames go that route though, what happens to captain Giordano? The 37-year-old defenseman is still signed for next season, carries a $6.75MM cap hit and could potentially be a player to help market the Kraken in their first year.

We’re only two years removed from seeing Giordano win the Norris Trophy after scoring 74 points in 78 games, and though that offense has declined, he’s still a legitimate top-four option that could potentially even wear the “C” in Seattle. There is an argument to be made that the Flames could use his cap space elsewhere this season, but it seems like terrible asset management to let Giordano go for nothing at this point. There would surely be a team at the trade deadline interested in paying up for his services, and even with his limited no-trade clause (Giordano lists 19 teams he’s willing to be traded to), the Flames could likely get quite a haul.

So then, as with any team looking at four defensemen worth protecting, the Flames must consider the eight-skater protection strategy. Unfortunately in this case, unless they make several trades, that seems unwise. Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Backlund, Dube, and Mangiapane are all easy selections to be protected, with any one of them a likely Seattle target if left exposed. One factor upfront could be Lucic’s no-movement clause, but the veteran winger has already publicly stated that he’s happy to waive it if it helps the club.

With those seven forwards all likely more important than Giordano to the long-term health of the franchise, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Flames protect their captain. That is of course unless a side deal is made with Seattle or a separate trade in the next few days.  For now, it appears as though he will be the one left available.

In net, there’s really no decision to be made. Markstrom holds the no-movement clause and would be the easy choice for protection even if he didn’t. Despite his struggles this season, he’s locked in as the team’s starter.

Projected Protection List

F Matthew Tkachuk
F Johnny Gaudreau
F Sean Monahan
F Mikael Backlund
F Elias Lindholm
F Andrew Mangiapane
F Dillon Dube

D Noah Hanifin
D Rasmus Andersson
D Chris Tanev

G Jacob Markstrom

Assuming Lucic waives his NMC*

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): Milan Lucic
Defensemen (1): Mark Giordano

One thing for the Flames to do over the next week is fill their exposure requirements, as only Lucic meets them at this point if the top seven forwards are all protected. A new contract for Ryan, Leivo, Ritchie, or Simon would do it, or a trade for another player that is signed through next season and meets the games player requirement. Time is getting short though, so perhaps the Flames have something else planned for their protection strategy.

On defense, Giordano meets the requirement but he’s the only one, meaning if they ever wanted to protect all four key defensemen they’d need to sign someone else. In net, extending Parsons a qualifying offer is all that is required.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: DeBrusk, Predictions, Vegas Goalies, Buyouts, Parise, Sabres, Panthers, Salary Cap, Kane, Blackhawks, Drouin, Free Agency

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an underachieving Bruin, some crystal ball predictions, the goalie situation for the Golden Knights, buyout candidates, and much, much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

Puckhead83: You’re Don Sweeney. Are you exposing Jake DeBrusk and taking the cap relief, trading him at his lowest value, or making him your reclamation project?

Can I take none of the above?  If I’m Sweeney, I’m leaning towards buying DeBrusk out and taking the cap relief that way.  The structure of his backloaded contract gives Boston a cap credit of $367K in 2021-22 and a charge of $808K in 2022-23; his buyout is only one-third instead of two-thirds because of his age (24).  His qualifying offer in 2022-23 is $4.85MM and even a decent bounce-back season probably isn’t worthy of a tender so making him the reclamation project doesn’t make sense.

I’d leave him unprotected in expansion but I don’t think Seattle would bite.  Jeremy Lauzon is my preferred target from the Bruins, a young and cheap defenseman with some upside and can already handle himself in the NHL.

As for a trade, what’s better for Boston – roughly $4MM in cap space this summer or taking on a similar underperformer in a trade for DeBrusk?  The UFA market is going to be like last fall; there will be bargains to be had.  If I’m Sweeney, I’m making my bet that a UFA signing will be a better fit than the addition of the prototypical change of scenery swap player that I’d get in a swap.

The Duke: Crystal Ball time: Where will Ekman-Larsson and Kessel end up – and what’s Adin Hill’s future hold? Bonus question: who will be Nashville’s backup goalie – and what is Connor Ingram’s status? Thanks!

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: I think he stays in Arizona.  The Coyotes aren’t a team that’s going to want to carry a lot of dead money on the books and with the cap environment being what it is and the year he had, no one is taking on the six years and $8.25MM AAV outright.  There’s a new coach in Andre Tourigny so why not see if the captain can turn things around over selling low and paying him a good chunk of money not to play for them?

Phil Kessel: They’ve already paid most of his contract for next season in the form of a signing bonus and only owe him $800K with Toronto covering the other $200K.  This a budget-conscious team so while I know his name is out there, I don’t think they’re in much of a hurry to move his contract.  If they’re out of it at the deadline, he’ll move then but I think he stays with the Coyotes.

Hill: He should be in the NHL next season, either as Darcy Kuemper’s backup or picked by Seattle in expansion.  Hill has two years before reaching UFA eligibility so he is going to have to establish himself as a legitimate backup between now and then.  He should get that chance starting next year though.

Ingram: Ingram did return to Nashville’s farm team late in the season and still has two years left on his contract with the final year being a one-way pact.  He’s now waiver-eligible and is one of the more intriguing netminders in that situation.  This year was a write-off with everything that happened which could push him out of the mix to be the Predators’ backup but in 2019-20, he was nothing short of dominant.  Is there a team that is willing to give him a chance based on that?  I’m quite interested in seeing how that plays out in the fall.

DirtbagBlues: Can Vegas really afford to keep this goalie tandem? There seems to be no interest in moving either of them, but they could badly use the cap space. Not that this helps them with the cap, but if Vegas doesn’t trade an NHL goalie, could Logan Thompson be moved for a young skater?

They can afford to if they want.  They have probably three or four roster spots to fill (two forwards plus one or two defensemen) and roughly $6MM in cap space.  Go cheap on those slots and there is room to keep both Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner.  However, they’d be parting ways with Alec Martinez, Mattias Janmark, and potentially Tomas Nosek in the process and taking a step backwards so the question becomes is keeping both the right move to make?

Last year, the asking price to take on Fleury’s deal was high but things have changed since then.  He’s now the reigning Vezina winner which helps his value.  He also now has just one year left on his contract which also helps his value.  With so many other goalies available in free agency, Vegas couldn’t command a significant return but they shouldn’t have to pay to get out of it either.  Meanwhile, with Fleury being 36, they can’t really move Lehner who is the goalie of the near future.  They can make keeping both of them work but there is a definite opportunity cost in doing so.

As for moving Thompson, sure, he could be swapped for a young skater but it would be of the fringe variety.  He has one very good AHL season under his belt but that alone doesn’t give him much trade value.  They’re not going to get someone that could step into the bottom six up front or the third pairing defensively for someone with that small of a track record.  I’d hold onto him and if he has another strong year in Henderson, he’s a cost-effective backup to Lehner in 2022-23.

wreckage: Who is the most likely buyout candidate?

Anthony DeAngelo of the Rangers is the most obvious one.  They’re not going to pay him $5.3MM in salary to sit at home for another year when a buyout cap charge would be less than $1.2MM spread out over two seasons.  Teams aren’t going to trade for him at that salary so that one is pretty much a lock.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Jake Virtanen is in a similar situation.  The off-ice situation is still in play and his play on the ice (five goals and zero assists in 38 games) doesn’t warrant the contract he has.  It’s another one-third buyout with just a $50K cap charge next season and $500K the year after that.  Vancouver can do better with that money.

In terms of veterans, Edmonton’s Mikko Koskinen also seems quite likely.  There is now only one year left on his deal at $4.5MM and that’s way too much money for a backup goalie that can’t be relied on.  Even with a $1.5MM buyout charge for two years, I suspect GM Ken Holland can find a better fit between the pipes for the net $3MM savings for next season.  With some uncertainty with a long-term starting option, they can’t afford to carry more uncertainty at the backup spot either.

I expect a few more buyouts than these but it would be surprising if any of these three aren’t hitting the open market later this month.

@DJ23420117: What are the Wild going to do about Parise? Buyout? Trade w/Kraken? Keep him and make nice?

There is no good answer in this situation.  Let’s get that out of the way first.  The buyout cost – one that would give them some room next season before jumping to $6.3MM, $7.3MM, and $7.3MM – accomplishes next to nothing.  With his AAV being $7.538MM, they can’t even replace him without incurring a higher cap hit than had they just kept him.  In that situation, keeping him makes sense although he’s clearly unhappy with the situation.

A trade with Seattle is nice in theory but what would it cost to get them to take the contract on?  With the market being what it is, we’re probably looking at multiple first-round picks or comparable assets while also locking in the potential for salary cap recapture if he decides to retire early.

Honestly, I think they may be better off just keeping him; I don’t know about the make nice part though.  No one is happy in this scenario either but I wouldn’t want to give up so many future pieces to move him or create a bunch of dead cap space that winds up costing them more money to fill his spot in some of those years than it would be to keep him.  There’s no desirable answer here so for Parise, it’ll be a matter of choosing the least undesirable solution.

Y2KAK: Any chance Buffalo doesn’t go Owen Power?

Nothing is ever 100% certain but the odds they don’t go with Power would be low.  I doubt they’re concerned with him leaning towards staying in college for another year; that wouldn’t scare them off from picking him.  Big, top pairing defenders don’t become available very often and passing on one wouldn’t make much sense.

About the only scenario where I could maybe see them not taking him is if they traded Jack Eichel for a package that really shored up their defense with multiple long-term pieces to the point where they then look at someone like Matthew Beniers to replace Eichel up the middle.  But even that isn’t a very realistic scenario.  I’d be really surprised if Power isn’t a Sabre later this month.

Red Wings: What would it take for the Panthers to get rid of Bobrovsky? Or more realistically Yandle?

To move Sergei Bobrovsky, it would take eating a significant chunk of his $10MM cap hit for the next five seasons.  That’s a lot of money to pay someone not to play for them and as a budget-conscious team, it’s an even bigger hit.  From there, they’d have to take on a deal with at least three years left at a similar price tag as the non-retained portion on Bobrovsky.  Is that worth doing for Florida?  Probably not at this stage.  I’m not expecting him to rebound significantly next season but a small improvement could get him closer to league average.  That, coupled with one less year on his contract a year from now, might make it slightly less difficult to move him.

You’re correct that Keith Yandle is the more realistic trade option.  With only two years left and a $6.35MM cap hit, that’s a lot less of a hit to take on than Bobrovsky.  Yandle can also still contribute offensively although his struggles in his own end are what ultimately led to him being scratched in the playoffs.  The formula to a trade is similar to Bobrovsky – retain a sizable percentage and take a player back making the difference between Yandle’s AAV and the retained portion, creating a cap-neutral trade which will be a key to many moves this summer.  They’ll be losing some offensive punch with such a move but improved defensive zone play would help negate that.

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Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Hurricanes got off pretty easily in expansion as the Golden Knights selected Connor Brickley while accepting a fifth-round pick to stay away from other options.  Brickley was a pending UFA and never signed with Vegas, ultimately going to Florida instead.  Only losing a fifth-rounder is better than most teams fared back then but they’re unlikely to be similarly unaffected this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sebastian Aho, Jesper Fast, Warren Foegele, Morgan Geekie, Steven Lorentz, Spencer Smallman, Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal (NMC), Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck

Defense:
Jake Bean, Jake Gardiner, Eric Gelinas, Maxime Lajoie, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jaccob Slavin

Goalies:
Jeremy Helvig, Alex Nedeljkovic

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jani Hakanpaa, D Dougie Hamilton, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Brock McGinn, G Petr Mrazek, F Cedric Paquette, G James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

F Dominik Bokk, F Seth Jarvis, D Joey Keane, F Martin Necas, F Ryan Suzuki

Key Decisions

There isn’t much to decide between the pipes.  Even if Carolina is considering non-tendering Nedeljkovic to avoid the potential for arbitration, he’s still the logical one to protect.  Even if they wanted to leave him unprotected and protect Helvig for some illogical reason, they’d have to first tender him his qualifier which takes away the option to avoid arbitration.  This one is easy.

It isn’t anywhere near as easy on defense.  Sure, Slavin and Pesce are the obvious selections but it gets a lot tougher from there.

Skjei is a capable top-four defender and while his production has dried up since coming over in a trade from the Rangers, he’s still logging over 20 minutes a night and playing a significant role on their penalty kill.  He has three years left on his deal at a $5.25MM price tag.  That might be a little above market value considering the drop-off in points but if it is an overpayment, it’s not by much.  And at 27, he’s in the prime of his career.  Carolina is also less than a year and a half removed from trading a first-round pick to get Skjei so letting him go for nothing to Seattle would certainly sting.  The Kraken need to pick up some notable contracts in their draft and Skjei would become an immediate fixture for them defensively if he was to be made available.

So why isn’t he the obvious choice?  That would be the presence of Bean on the eligible list.  The 23-year-old was a first-rounder himself back in 2016 and finally was able to establish himself as a regular this season despite being involved in 50 taxi squad transactions throughout the season; that number isn’t an exaggeration but the moves gave Carolina some salary savings.  Is he ready for a top-four spot in the lineup?  If so, he could be protected over Skjei and likely move into Skjei’s spot on the depth chart.

Hamilton also has to be considered here.  He has been given permission to talk to other teams early which is a sign the two sides are far apart in contract talks but if Hamilton doesn’t get the deal he wants, he could circle back.  If Carolina was able to sign him in the next week, he would then get the final spot.  Meanwhile, Gardiner is a safe bet to be left protected after struggling in his first two seasons with the Hurricanes.

Up front, most of the spots are easily spoken for.  Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, and Trocheck are all locks.  Staal has a no-move clause which secures his spot as well.  Niederreiter has been up and down since joining the Hurricanes and has a high enough contract ($5.25MM) that he could be left exposed but he was second on the team in goals this year; that’d be hard to part with so let’s put him on there as well.  That’s six of the seven spots right there and enough sure-fire protectees to take away the eight-skater option which would allow them to keep both defensemen.

At first glance, Foegele would seem like the logical candidate.  He has been a capable middle-six forward and has been productive in a limited role, notching at least ten goals in three straight years.  However, he’s also arbitration-eligible and if they’re worried about Nedeljkovic’s arbitration eligibility, they could be concerned with Foegele’s as well.  If they are, there’s no point protecting him if they’re considering non-tendering him.

Fast signed a pretty cheap deal in the fall, a contract that has two years left on it at a respectable $2MM.  However, his numbers took a bit of a dip this season in more of a limited role than he was accustomed to with the Rangers.  It’s still a good value deal but losing someone that’s on the third line with some frequency wouldn’t be a bad outcome for the Hurricanes.

Geekie is still largely unproven in the NHL with 36 of his 38 career regular season games coming this season.  Most of that time was spent on the fourth line.  However, he’s going to be cheaper than the other options and plays the premium position as he’s a center.  So too does Lorentz but Geekie is a little younger which probably leaves Lorentz exposed.

Projected Protection List

F Sebastian Aho
F Morgan Geekie
F Nino Niederreiter
F Jordan Staal (NMC)
F Andrei Svechnikov
F Teuvo Teravainen
F Vincent Trocheck

D Brett Pesce
D Jaccob Slavin
D Brady Skjei

G Alex Nedeljkovic

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Jesper Fast, Steven Lorentz
Defensemen (1): Jake Gardiner

Carolina is able to meet the requirements with the above players but it’s the restricted free agents in Bean and Foegele that will be the most attractive to Seattle.  Kraken GM Ron Francis is quite familiar with both players having drafted when he was GM of the Hurricanes.  Both are young – Foegele has two years of team control left and Bean four – which means Seattle will be getting a longer-term piece.  Bean would likely be the favorite to be selected but either way, they’re going to get hit harder this time than they were by Vegas and a fifth-round pick alone wouldn’t be able to protect everyone this time around.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

This past season was an up and down one for Winnipeg.  At times, they were good enough to contend for the top spot in the North Division and others where they struggled considerably.  Things followed a similar pattern in the playoffs as they swept Edmonton before being swept by Montreal.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has one of the cleaner cap situations in the league at his disposal this summer, giving him an opportunity to reshape his roster.  One priority stands out amongst the rest, however.

Add Impact Defensive Help

Let’s not bother with delaying the obvious.  The back end has been an issue for the last two years after Winnipeg lost Jacob Trouba (trade), Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot (free agency), and Dustin Byfuglien (injury and eventual contract termination).  They have two proven players in Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk (part of the return for Trouba) but the depth takes a hit from there.  Dylan DeMelo is a capable third pairing player, Nathan Beaulieu is serviceable depth, and Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola have some upside but are unproven.

As they’ve found out, that combination isn’t the makings of a top-level defense or even a league-average one.  Cheveldayoff has made moves to try to raise the floor and add depth in the past two seasons since then with the pickup and re-signing of DeMelo last season, the signing of Derek Forbort (a pending UFA again this summer), and the trade deadline add of Jordie Benn this year but that isn’t going to drastically change their fortunes.  Frankly, the Jets could benefit from trying to do that again this summer but that alone can’t the only upgrades made.

At least one top-four defender needs to be added to the mix.  That would take some pressure off Morrissey and Pionk while also allowing Stanley and Heinola to continue to be eased in.  Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of impact blueliners available in free agency; you can probably count the number of top-four defenders on one hand.  But with only $61MM in commitments for next season, they’ll have the ability to be a high bidder on those players if they want to go that way.  Otherwise, it’ll have to come by a trade.

After failing to land an impact rearguard last summer, Cheveldayoff simply cannot strike out on that front again if he intends to see Winnipeg take a step forward next season.

Re-Sign RFAs

The Jets don’t have many restricted free agents to contend with this summer but they have two notable ones that will need to be addressed fairly quickly as both are eligible for salary arbitration.

The biggest one is Pionk.  He really took off following the trade from the Rangers and got better when pressed into a bigger role.  Going back to his USHL and college days, there has always been some offensive upside for Pionk and he has shown that since joining the Jets, collecting 77 points in 125 games.  The timing couldn’t have been better as he now becomes eligible for a hearing for the first time.  With two years away from UFA eligibility, the time has come for a long-term contract.  Considering how much they’ve lost from their back end in recent years and how important Pionk has become, it’s likely that Cheveldayoff will push for a deal that buys out several UFA years.  That could push his price tag close to double the $3MM AAV on his bridge contract but it’d be a price well worth paying to give them some stability.

The other is Andrew Copp who is basically Winnipeg’s Swiss army knife.  He can play in a checking role and has shown that for several years.  He has been called upon to play higher in the lineup at times as well and responded to that request by setting new career highs offensively across the board despite the pandemic-shortened season.  He’s a natural center but spent a lot of time in 2020-21 on the wing.  Role and positional flexibility is an ideal combination to have combined with the uptick in offense.  He’s well-positioned to earn well over his $2.3MM qualifying offer and since he’s only a year from UFA eligibility, Copp could simply elect arbitration and go to a hearing which is what he did last time.  They locked up Adam Lowry before the deadline on a long-term deal and will try to do the same with his linemate now.

Rebuild The Bottom Six

Winnipeg’s top five forwards are all either signed or under team control for at least the next three years so they’re pretty well set there although Paul Stastny will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month.  However, they have a trio of bottom-six forwards that are set to hit the open market in Mathieu Perreault, Nate Thompson, and Trevor Lewis.  The latter two were added last summer to add some grit and penalty killing acumen but Perreault has been a versatile piece for the Jets for the last seven years.

This is another opportunity for Cheveldayoff to shore up the bottom of his roster.  Kristian Vesalainen and David Gustafsson are internal candidates for a regular role and with both on entry-level contracts, they’d be cheap enough for Winnipeg to afford to take a run at another top-six piece and strengthen their attack.  Alternatively, if they opt to replace all of those players with free agents, they’ll again benefit from the flat salary cap and an environment where teams will be trying to go cheaper with role players; they’ll be well-positioned to bid a bit higher on each one which should give them a leg up in those discussions.

Fill The Backup Goalie Spot

The decision to bring back Laurent Brossoit for this season was a little curious considering how much the 28-year-old struggled in 2019-20 but Winnipeg’s faith in him was rewarded as he bounced back with a 2.42 GAA and a .918 SV% this season, numbers that were actually slightly better than Connor Hellebuyck’s.  That could have Brossoit primed for a bigger deal in free agency, a pricier one than they may want to pay.

With Hellebuyck in the fold for three more years and a proven ability to log a lot of minutes, the Jets can afford to shop on the less expensive side of free agency, freeing up some extra cap flexibility elsewhere.  Brossoit made $1.5MM this season and that’s likely the price range that Cheveldayoff will want to keep his second netminder.  If Brossoit isn’t open to that deal this time around, there will be a change made between the pipes this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Chicago Blackhawks

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Blackhawks had to face an expansion draft, the outcome ended up in the news long before the Golden Knights announced their pick. Trevor van Riemsdyk would be left unprotected, but Vegas would also agree to take on Marcus Kruger’s remaining contract. Though it had to wait until after Chicago paid his signing bonus, Kruger would eventually end up with the Golden Knights in exchange for “future considerations.” Vegas would flip both Kruger and van Riemsdyk to Carolina, essentially getting second and fifth-round picks for just a tiny bit of salary retention. Those kinds of moves were part of the brilliant strategy devised by Vegas, but won’t be so easy to pull off this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Jonathan Toews (NMC), Patrick Kane (NMC), Alex DeBrincat, Brett Connolly, Dylan Strome, David Kampf, Ryan Carpenter, Adam Gaudette, Josh Dickinson, Brandon Hagel, Henrik Borgstrom

Defense:

Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan, Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov, Riley Stillman

Goalies:

Collin Delia, Malcolm Subban, Kevin Lankinen

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Pirri, Anton Lindholm

Notable Exemptions

Dominik Kubalik, Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, Kirby Dach, Alexander Nylander, Ian Mitchell, Adam Boqvist, Wyatt Kalynuk, Nicolas Beaudin

Key Decisions

This time in Chicago, the decisions to make are actually relatively easy. One of the biggest questions a few months ago would have been whether Nylander deserved protection five years after being selected eighth overall by the Buffalo Sabres. That question now has an easy answer, as the 23-year-old winger is exempt because he missed this entire season following knee surgery. Because his first two years post-draft were spent mostly at the AHL level, they don’t count toward his eligibility and thus he has just two years of professional experience under his belt, at least according to the expansion rules. He’s exempt, and Chicago fans can argue over whether or not he deserves a roster spot next season.

Toews, Kane and DeBrincat are obvious choices for protection. Now that the captain is back skating, there’s no need to talk about waiving his no-movement clause for the Blackhawks in order for them to protect an extra player. Strome, even though he is coming off a terrible season, has too high a ceiling to be left exposed to Seattle. Hagel was about as big of a bright spot as they had in Chicago this season, adding 24 points while seemingly never running out of energy. The 22-year-old likely gets protected. Borgstrom already agreed to a two-year deal to return to North America, so Chicago isn’t going to let the first-round pick get selected.

That leaves two spots for the group of Connolly, Kampf, and Gaudette, with the odd man out potentially heading to Seattle. A $3.5MM cap hit seems like a ridiculous price for the Connolly that scored just three goals in 31 games last season, but what about the one that had 71 over his previous 286 (a 20-goal 82-game pace). Sure, if Seattle took him off Chicago’s hands it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but at just 29 there is real bounce-back potential there. Kampf has never shown an ability to score at that rate, with just 17 goals over his four seasons with the Blackhawks. That’s not to say he’s useless, but he’ll be an RFA this summer and scored just a single goal in 56 games this season.

Gaudette is the most interesting case here, after arriving midseason in a trade from the Vancouver Canucks. The 24-year-old looked like he was ready to breakout in 2019-20 when he scored 12 goals and 33 points in 59 games, but he completely fell apart in the playoffs and then couldn’t find his game at all this season. He’ll also be an RFA this summer, and it’s not really clear how the Blackhawks plan to use the 2018 Hobey Baker winner. There is at least an argument to be made for Kampf’s defensive consistency over Gaudette’s offensive potential, even if it would have seemed crazy a year ago.

On defense, things really just boil down to the Keith situation. It appears a trade is likely, with the Kraken one of the preferred destinations thanks to its proximity to his hometown. Whether a deal is officially made before the draft (other teams including the Edmonton Oilers are also involved in the discussions) or Keith simply agrees to waive his no-movement clause, it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be protected by the Blackhawks.

That leaves three spots for four defensemen, with Murphy obviously getting one of them. Zadorov and de Haan could easily be the other choices, though perhaps Stillman could also be a factor if the team believes they’ve locked up real value when he signed a three-year, $4.05MM deal in April. When it was signed, GM Stan Bowman noted that Stillman’s development was “something we look forward to seeing firsthand,” suggesting that perhaps they believe he can be a real core piece moving forward. If that’s the case, Zadorov or de Haan could be exposed simply to open up cap space and minutes for their other young defensemen.

In net, it really comes down to who the organization believes has the highest ceiling. All three netminders played this season, all three will be unrestricted free agents after next. Lankinen came back to earth after an outstanding first half, finishing with a .909 save percentage in 37 games. He’s the leading candidate for protection, but it seems unlikely that any of them would be in danger of selection anyway.

Projected Protection List

F Jonathan Toews
F Patrick Kane
F Alex DeBrincat
F Dylan Strome
F Adam Gaudette
F Brandon Hagel
F Henrik Borgstrom

D Connor Murphy
D Nikita Zadorov
D Riley Stillman

G Kevin Lankinen

*Assuming that Keith is traded or waives his no-movement clause before the draft

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Brett Connolly, Ryan Carpenter
Defensemen (2): Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan

Even if the team trades Keith ahead of the draft, leaving de Haan (or Stillman) exposed would fill their defensive requirements. The exposure requirements could also help the decision on Connolly, as he’s one of only a handful that currently meets the games played threshold and are signed through next season. Gaudette or Kampf, alternatively, would require new deals to fill that forward requirement.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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The Stanley Cup could be awarded this evening and the offseason is already in full swing around the NHL. We’re just a few weeks away from the Seattle Kraken selecting their expansion roster and the 2021 draft class finding out which team will choose them. Free agency will soon follow and teams will start preparing for the 2021-22 season, which is just a few months away thanks to the altered sports calendar.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first part, Brian La Rose gave his thoughts on Philadelphia’s defense corps, the future of Jack Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen in Buffalo, and whether or not the Maple Leafs made a mistake when they installed Kyle Dubas as general manager.  In the second, he suggested some teams that may need to complete a side deal with the Kraken, examined some interesting free agent targets, and gave his thoughts on the Dougie Hamilton market.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

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