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Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Hurricanes got off pretty easily in expansion as the Golden Knights selected Connor Brickley while accepting a fifth-round pick to stay away from other options.  Brickley was a pending UFA and never signed with Vegas, ultimately going to Florida instead.  Only losing a fifth-rounder is better than most teams fared back then but they’re unlikely to be similarly unaffected this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sebastian Aho, Jesper Fast, Warren Foegele, Morgan Geekie, Steven Lorentz, Spencer Smallman, Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal (NMC), Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck

Defense:
Jake Bean, Jake Gardiner, Eric Gelinas, Maxime Lajoie, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jaccob Slavin

Goalies:
Jeremy Helvig, Alex Nedeljkovic

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jani Hakanpaa, D Dougie Hamilton, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Brock McGinn, G Petr Mrazek, F Cedric Paquette, G James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

F Dominik Bokk, F Seth Jarvis, D Joey Keane, F Martin Necas, F Ryan Suzuki

Key Decisions

There isn’t much to decide between the pipes.  Even if Carolina is considering non-tendering Nedeljkovic to avoid the potential for arbitration, he’s still the logical one to protect.  Even if they wanted to leave him unprotected and protect Helvig for some illogical reason, they’d have to first tender him his qualifier which takes away the option to avoid arbitration.  This one is easy.

It isn’t anywhere near as easy on defense.  Sure, Slavin and Pesce are the obvious selections but it gets a lot tougher from there.

Skjei is a capable top-four defender and while his production has dried up since coming over in a trade from the Rangers, he’s still logging over 20 minutes a night and playing a significant role on their penalty kill.  He has three years left on his deal at a $5.25MM price tag.  That might be a little above market value considering the drop-off in points but if it is an overpayment, it’s not by much.  And at 27, he’s in the prime of his career.  Carolina is also less than a year and a half removed from trading a first-round pick to get Skjei so letting him go for nothing to Seattle would certainly sting.  The Kraken need to pick up some notable contracts in their draft and Skjei would become an immediate fixture for them defensively if he was to be made available.

So why isn’t he the obvious choice?  That would be the presence of Bean on the eligible list.  The 23-year-old was a first-rounder himself back in 2016 and finally was able to establish himself as a regular this season despite being involved in 50 taxi squad transactions throughout the season; that number isn’t an exaggeration but the moves gave Carolina some salary savings.  Is he ready for a top-four spot in the lineup?  If so, he could be protected over Skjei and likely move into Skjei’s spot on the depth chart.

Hamilton also has to be considered here.  He has been given permission to talk to other teams early which is a sign the two sides are far apart in contract talks but if Hamilton doesn’t get the deal he wants, he could circle back.  If Carolina was able to sign him in the next week, he would then get the final spot.  Meanwhile, Gardiner is a safe bet to be left protected after struggling in his first two seasons with the Hurricanes.

Up front, most of the spots are easily spoken for.  Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, and Trocheck are all locks.  Staal has a no-move clause which secures his spot as well.  Niederreiter has been up and down since joining the Hurricanes and has a high enough contract ($5.25MM) that he could be left exposed but he was second on the team in goals this year; that’d be hard to part with so let’s put him on there as well.  That’s six of the seven spots right there and enough sure-fire protectees to take away the eight-skater option which would allow them to keep both defensemen.

At first glance, Foegele would seem like the logical candidate.  He has been a capable middle-six forward and has been productive in a limited role, notching at least ten goals in three straight years.  However, he’s also arbitration-eligible and if they’re worried about Nedeljkovic’s arbitration eligibility, they could be concerned with Foegele’s as well.  If they are, there’s no point protecting him if they’re considering non-tendering him.

Fast signed a pretty cheap deal in the fall, a contract that has two years left on it at a respectable $2MM.  However, his numbers took a bit of a dip this season in more of a limited role than he was accustomed to with the Rangers.  It’s still a good value deal but losing someone that’s on the third line with some frequency wouldn’t be a bad outcome for the Hurricanes.

Geekie is still largely unproven in the NHL with 36 of his 38 career regular season games coming this season.  Most of that time was spent on the fourth line.  However, he’s going to be cheaper than the other options and plays the premium position as he’s a center.  So too does Lorentz but Geekie is a little younger which probably leaves Lorentz exposed.

Projected Protection List

F Sebastian Aho
F Morgan Geekie
F Nino Niederreiter
F Jordan Staal (NMC)
F Andrei Svechnikov
F Teuvo Teravainen
F Vincent Trocheck

D Brett Pesce
D Jaccob Slavin
D Brady Skjei

G Alex Nedeljkovic

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Jesper Fast, Steven Lorentz
Defensemen (1): Jake Gardiner

Carolina is able to meet the requirements with the above players but it’s the restricted free agents in Bean and Foegele that will be the most attractive to Seattle.  Kraken GM Ron Francis is quite familiar with both players having drafted when he was GM of the Hurricanes.  Both are young – Foegele has two years of team control left and Bean four – which means Seattle will be getting a longer-term piece.  Bean would likely be the favorite to be selected but either way, they’re going to get hit harder this time than they were by Vegas and a fifth-round pick alone wouldn’t be able to protect everyone this time around.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming weeks and months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

This past season was an up and down one for Winnipeg.  At times, they were good enough to contend for the top spot in the North Division and others where they struggled considerably.  Things followed a similar pattern in the playoffs as they swept Edmonton before being swept by Montreal.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has one of the cleaner cap situations in the league at his disposal this summer, giving him an opportunity to reshape his roster.  One priority stands out amongst the rest, however.

Add Impact Defensive Help

Let’s not bother with delaying the obvious.  The back end has been an issue for the last two years after Winnipeg lost Jacob Trouba (trade), Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot (free agency), and Dustin Byfuglien (injury and eventual contract termination).  They have two proven players in Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk (part of the return for Trouba) but the depth takes a hit from there.  Dylan DeMelo is a capable third pairing player, Nathan Beaulieu is serviceable depth, and Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola have some upside but are unproven.

As they’ve found out, that combination isn’t the makings of a top-level defense or even a league-average one.  Cheveldayoff has made moves to try to raise the floor and add depth in the past two seasons since then with the pickup and re-signing of DeMelo last season, the signing of Derek Forbort (a pending UFA again this summer), and the trade deadline add of Jordie Benn this year but that isn’t going to drastically change their fortunes.  Frankly, the Jets could benefit from trying to do that again this summer but that alone can’t the only upgrades made.

At least one top-four defender needs to be added to the mix.  That would take some pressure off Morrissey and Pionk while also allowing Stanley and Heinola to continue to be eased in.  Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of impact blueliners available in free agency; you can probably count the number of top-four defenders on one hand.  But with only $61MM in commitments for next season, they’ll have the ability to be a high bidder on those players if they want to go that way.  Otherwise, it’ll have to come by a trade.

After failing to land an impact rearguard last summer, Cheveldayoff simply cannot strike out on that front again if he intends to see Winnipeg take a step forward next season.

Re-Sign RFAs

The Jets don’t have many restricted free agents to contend with this summer but they have two notable ones that will need to be addressed fairly quickly as both are eligible for salary arbitration.

The biggest one is Pionk.  He really took off following the trade from the Rangers and got better when pressed into a bigger role.  Going back to his USHL and college days, there has always been some offensive upside for Pionk and he has shown that since joining the Jets, collecting 77 points in 125 games.  The timing couldn’t have been better as he now becomes eligible for a hearing for the first time.  With two years away from UFA eligibility, the time has come for a long-term contract.  Considering how much they’ve lost from their back end in recent years and how important Pionk has become, it’s likely that Cheveldayoff will push for a deal that buys out several UFA years.  That could push his price tag close to double the $3MM AAV on his bridge contract but it’d be a price well worth paying to give them some stability.

The other is Andrew Copp who is basically Winnipeg’s Swiss army knife.  He can play in a checking role and has shown that for several years.  He has been called upon to play higher in the lineup at times as well and responded to that request by setting new career highs offensively across the board despite the pandemic-shortened season.  He’s a natural center but spent a lot of time in 2020-21 on the wing.  Role and positional flexibility is an ideal combination to have combined with the uptick in offense.  He’s well-positioned to earn well over his $2.3MM qualifying offer and since he’s only a year from UFA eligibility, Copp could simply elect arbitration and go to a hearing which is what he did last time.  They locked up Adam Lowry before the deadline on a long-term deal and will try to do the same with his linemate now.

Rebuild The Bottom Six

Winnipeg’s top five forwards are all either signed or under team control for at least the next three years so they’re pretty well set there although Paul Stastny will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month.  However, they have a trio of bottom-six forwards that are set to hit the open market in Mathieu Perreault, Nate Thompson, and Trevor Lewis.  The latter two were added last summer to add some grit and penalty killing acumen but Perreault has been a versatile piece for the Jets for the last seven years.

This is another opportunity for Cheveldayoff to shore up the bottom of his roster.  Kristian Vesalainen and David Gustafsson are internal candidates for a regular role and with both on entry-level contracts, they’d be cheap enough for Winnipeg to afford to take a run at another top-six piece and strengthen their attack.  Alternatively, if they opt to replace all of those players with free agents, they’ll again benefit from the flat salary cap and an environment where teams will be trying to go cheaper with role players; they’ll be well-positioned to bid a bit higher on each one which should give them a leg up in those discussions.

Fill The Backup Goalie Spot

The decision to bring back Laurent Brossoit for this season was a little curious considering how much the 28-year-old struggled in 2019-20 but Winnipeg’s faith in him was rewarded as he bounced back with a 2.42 GAA and a .918 SV% this season, numbers that were actually slightly better than Connor Hellebuyck’s.  That could have Brossoit primed for a bigger deal in free agency, a pricier one than they may want to pay.

With Hellebuyck in the fold for three more years and a proven ability to log a lot of minutes, the Jets can afford to shop on the less expensive side of free agency, freeing up some extra cap flexibility elsewhere.  Brossoit made $1.5MM this season and that’s likely the price range that Cheveldayoff will want to keep his second netminder.  If Brossoit isn’t open to that deal this time around, there will be a change made between the pipes this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Chicago Blackhawks

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Blackhawks had to face an expansion draft, the outcome ended up in the news long before the Golden Knights announced their pick. Trevor van Riemsdyk would be left unprotected, but Vegas would also agree to take on Marcus Kruger’s remaining contract. Though it had to wait until after Chicago paid his signing bonus, Kruger would eventually end up with the Golden Knights in exchange for “future considerations.” Vegas would flip both Kruger and van Riemsdyk to Carolina, essentially getting second and fifth-round picks for just a tiny bit of salary retention. Those kinds of moves were part of the brilliant strategy devised by Vegas, but won’t be so easy to pull off this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Jonathan Toews (NMC), Patrick Kane (NMC), Alex DeBrincat, Brett Connolly, Dylan Strome, David Kampf, Ryan Carpenter, Adam Gaudette, Josh Dickinson, Brandon Hagel, Henrik Borgstrom

Defense:

Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan, Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov, Riley Stillman

Goalies:

Collin Delia, Malcolm Subban, Kevin Lankinen

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Pirri, Anton Lindholm

Notable Exemptions

Dominik Kubalik, Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, Kirby Dach, Alexander Nylander, Ian Mitchell, Adam Boqvist, Wyatt Kalynuk, Nicolas Beaudin

Key Decisions

This time in Chicago, the decisions to make are actually relatively easy. One of the biggest questions a few months ago would have been whether Nylander deserved protection five years after being selected eighth overall by the Buffalo Sabres. That question now has an easy answer, as the 23-year-old winger is exempt because he missed this entire season following knee surgery. Because his first two years post-draft were spent mostly at the AHL level, they don’t count toward his eligibility and thus he has just two years of professional experience under his belt, at least according to the expansion rules. He’s exempt, and Chicago fans can argue over whether or not he deserves a roster spot next season.

Toews, Kane and DeBrincat are obvious choices for protection. Now that the captain is back skating, there’s no need to talk about waiving his no-movement clause for the Blackhawks in order for them to protect an extra player. Strome, even though he is coming off a terrible season, has too high a ceiling to be left exposed to Seattle. Hagel was about as big of a bright spot as they had in Chicago this season, adding 24 points while seemingly never running out of energy. The 22-year-old likely gets protected. Borgstrom already agreed to a two-year deal to return to North America, so Chicago isn’t going to let the first-round pick get selected.

That leaves two spots for the group of Connolly, Kampf, and Gaudette, with the odd man out potentially heading to Seattle. A $3.5MM cap hit seems like a ridiculous price for the Connolly that scored just three goals in 31 games last season, but what about the one that had 71 over his previous 286 (a 20-goal 82-game pace). Sure, if Seattle took him off Chicago’s hands it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but at just 29 there is real bounce-back potential there. Kampf has never shown an ability to score at that rate, with just 17 goals over his four seasons with the Blackhawks. That’s not to say he’s useless, but he’ll be an RFA this summer and scored just a single goal in 56 games this season.

Gaudette is the most interesting case here, after arriving midseason in a trade from the Vancouver Canucks. The 24-year-old looked like he was ready to breakout in 2019-20 when he scored 12 goals and 33 points in 59 games, but he completely fell apart in the playoffs and then couldn’t find his game at all this season. He’ll also be an RFA this summer, and it’s not really clear how the Blackhawks plan to use the 2018 Hobey Baker winner. There is at least an argument to be made for Kampf’s defensive consistency over Gaudette’s offensive potential, even if it would have seemed crazy a year ago.

On defense, things really just boil down to the Keith situation. It appears a trade is likely, with the Kraken one of the preferred destinations thanks to its proximity to his hometown. Whether a deal is officially made before the draft (other teams including the Edmonton Oilers are also involved in the discussions) or Keith simply agrees to waive his no-movement clause, it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be protected by the Blackhawks.

That leaves three spots for four defensemen, with Murphy obviously getting one of them. Zadorov and de Haan could easily be the other choices, though perhaps Stillman could also be a factor if the team believes they’ve locked up real value when he signed a three-year, $4.05MM deal in April. When it was signed, GM Stan Bowman noted that Stillman’s development was “something we look forward to seeing firsthand,” suggesting that perhaps they believe he can be a real core piece moving forward. If that’s the case, Zadorov or de Haan could be exposed simply to open up cap space and minutes for their other young defensemen.

In net, it really comes down to who the organization believes has the highest ceiling. All three netminders played this season, all three will be unrestricted free agents after next. Lankinen came back to earth after an outstanding first half, finishing with a .909 save percentage in 37 games. He’s the leading candidate for protection, but it seems unlikely that any of them would be in danger of selection anyway.

Projected Protection List

F Jonathan Toews
F Patrick Kane
F Alex DeBrincat
F Dylan Strome
F Adam Gaudette
F Brandon Hagel
F Henrik Borgstrom

D Connor Murphy
D Nikita Zadorov
D Riley Stillman

G Kevin Lankinen

*Assuming that Keith is traded or waives his no-movement clause before the draft

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Brett Connolly, Ryan Carpenter
Defensemen (2): Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan

Even if the team trades Keith ahead of the draft, leaving de Haan (or Stillman) exposed would fill their defensive requirements. The exposure requirements could also help the decision on Connolly, as he’s one of only a handful that currently meets the games played threshold and are signed through next season. Gaudette or Kampf, alternatively, would require new deals to fill that forward requirement.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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The Stanley Cup could be awarded this evening and the offseason is already in full swing around the NHL. We’re just a few weeks away from the Seattle Kraken selecting their expansion roster and the 2021 draft class finding out which team will choose them. Free agency will soon follow and teams will start preparing for the 2021-22 season, which is just a few months away thanks to the altered sports calendar.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. If you missed the last one, it was broken into two pieces. In the first part, Brian La Rose gave his thoughts on Philadelphia’s defense corps, the future of Jack Eichel and Rasmus Ristolainen in Buffalo, and whether or not the Maple Leafs made a mistake when they installed Kyle Dubas as general manager.  In the second, he suggested some teams that may need to complete a side deal with the Kraken, examined some interesting free agent targets, and gave his thoughts on the Dougie Hamilton market.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

Expansion Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest victims of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, trading a first-round and second-round pick to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for the team selecting William Karlsson and taking on David Clarkson’s contract. Karlsson has blossomed into the best center in Vegas’ young franchise history, while the Blue Jackets now have a hole down the middle and could have used those high draft picks to help fill it.

The team has seemingly spent the past four years making sure that history would not repeat itself this year. The Blue Jackets can protect all of their core players, leaving next to nothing of value for Seattle, and the only deal that they will make with the Kraken would have to be mutually beneficial.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Max Domi, Boone Jenner, Patrik Laine, Gustav Nyquist, Cliff Pu, Eric Robinson, Jack Roslovic, Kole Sherwood, Kevin Stenlund, Calvin Thurkauf

Defense:

Gabriel Carlsson, Vladislav Gavrikov, Scott Harrington, Seth Jones, Dean Kukan, Zach Werenski

Goalies:

Cam Johnson, Joonas Korpisalo

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Michael Del Zotto

Notable Exemptions

F Emil Bemstrom, F Yegor Chinakhov, F Josh Dunne, F Liam Foudy, D Mikko Lehtonen, G Elvis Merzlikins, D Andrew Peeke, F Alexandre Texier

Key Decisions

Kudos to GM Jarmo Kekalainen, who has taken most of the decision-making out of his team’s expansion process. The Blue Jackets may have taken a step back this season and looking to re-tool in the off-season, but at least they will not lose any players of great value.

Well, that’s not entirely true. By all accounts, Columbus will lose star defenseman Jones, but it will be on their own terms. While it may seem like a waste, the Blue Jackets are very unlikely to deal Jones before the Expansion Draft and thus must protect him so that they can make a deal later on this off-season.

Fortunately, Jones is not exactly stealing a protection slot from a top player. Fellow blue line standout Werenski and the reliable Gavrikov can still be protected in the 7-3 scheme, while future starters Peeke and Lehtonen are exempt, leaving only the likes of depth defenders Kukan, Harrington, and Carlsson exposed.

The decision in goal is even easier. With one half of their top tandem exempt in Merzlikins, the Blue Jackets simply protect the other side in Korpisalo, leaving untested Johnson exposed.

At forward, things are a little trickier – but not by much. Career Blue Jackets and locker room leaders Atkinson, Jenner, and Bjorkstrand are most importantly all productive scorers and will be safe. Despite down seasons to begin their Columbus tenures, there is no way that the team exposes Laine or Domi. On the flip side, Roslovic’s first season with the team was perhaps the highlight of the campaign and he is also not going anywhere.

This leaves just one protection slot open up front with three realistic candidates: Nyquist, Robinson, and Stenlund. This may seem like an easy decision to the casual onlooker, as Nyquist is a well-known name whereas Robinson and Stenlund have only recently established themselves as NHL assets. However, Nyquist is far from a lock due to the fact that he missed the entire season following off-season shoulder surgery. He will be 32 before next season and is a year removed from game action. Can the Blue Jackets really commit to $11MM over the next two seasons for an aging player whose return to form is uncertain?

They can, and the going theory is that they will. It isn’t a knock on Robinson or Stenlund, who both proved themselves to be valuable to Columbus this season, but the upside of Nyquist is simply much higher. In 2019-20, his first season with Blue Jackets, Nyquist was second on the team in scoring a key piece on special teams, all areas that struggled this year in his absence. With 40+ points in each of his seven full NHL seasons, including a 60-point campaign just two years ago, Nyquist is nothing if not consistent and reliable and would be a difficult player for the Blue Jackets to lose as they look to right the ship.

Of course, Nyquist’s age and contract are still a concern, even if he is able to bounce back. However, the Blue Jackets are not in any salary cap trouble and could use the veteran presence as they look to push more young talent onto the roster. Seattle may not be in the same boat; the Expansion Draft could yield far more well-paid veterans of value than affordable youngsters and the Kraken may not be keen to take an older, expensive player like Nyquist given his injury concerns and uncertain future. If the Blue Jackets decide to bank on this possibility, Robinson or Stenlund could be protected. They each made a good case this season; Robinson played in all 56 games and recorded career highs in goals and points, while Stenlund has recorded ten points in 32 games in back-to-back seasons, a26-point full-season pace. Either bottom-six forward could continue to provide value to Columbus, but at least one must be exposed if not both.

Projected Protection List

F Cam Atkinson
F Oliver Bjorkstrand
F Max Domi
F Boone Jenner
F Patrik Laine
F Gustav Nyquist
F Jack Roslovic

D Vladislav Gavrikov
D Seth Jones
D Zach Werenski

G Joonas Korpisalo

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Eric Robinson, Kevin Stenlund
Defensemen (1): Dean Kukan

Regardless of which players they choose to protect, the Blue Jackets will only expose the bare minimum required, likely by design. After all, Stenlund was just signed to a one-year extension last month with the Expansion Draft in mind. Barring an extension or outside addition, only the designated two forwards and one defenseman will be exposed among those meeting the requirements, as none of the other eligible players – Pu, Sherwood, Thurkauf, Carlsson, Harrington – are worth protecting.

Columbus leaves little for the Seattle Kraken if they protect Nyquist, which seems likely. It is a group of exposed players lacking in NHL experience or considerable upside. Robinson and Stenlund offer physical play and 25-point upside as bottom-six forwards, but at 26 and soon-to-be-25 respectively, there may not be much room for improvement. Kukan, 27, has had a hard time staying in the lineup in Columbus and looks to be best suited as a No. 7 defenseman on a good team. Harrington, also 27, was used even less, was less productive, and has more tread on his tires. Carlsson, though younger and bigger than Kukan and Harrington, was unable to unseat them with the Blue Jackets and would have much more competition with the Kraken. Unless Seattle GM Ron Francis has a special affinity for one of these players, Columbus seems like a prime team for a pick-and-trade, moving their selection to a contender seeking depth.

With all of that said, the Blue Jackets do still remain a fascinating candidate to make a side deal with the Kraken. With three first-round picks, including No. 5 overall, and a need at center that they would love to address with the top forward prospect in the draft, Columbus has the means and the desire to land the No. 2 pick from Seattle if they are open to moving it. The new franchise could certainly benefit from an extra first round pick if they move back and may even be able to change the Blue Jackets’ protection plan as part of the deal.

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. A Predators legend is a UFA, but there are other, perhaps more important names for the Nashville front office to focus on.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Eeli Tolvanen – After dominating the KHL in 2017-18, many expected Tolvanen to step into the NHL as a superstar. That wasn’t even close to the case as the young sniper failed to even make the team the following season, spending two full years at the minor league level. In 2020-21 though, the Predators started to see a return on their investment, with Tolvanen eventually taking over a spot in the top-six. His development made Viktor Arvidsson expendable and should mean he is in line for even more responsibility next season. Now comes a negotiation and if GM David Poile is known for anything, it’s locking up players he believes are core pieces to long-term deals right away. Ineligible for arbitration, the only real leverage Tolvanen has is the threat of the KHL, meaning he should come back for a reasonable price unless the team starts buying out UFA time on a max-term deal.

D Dante Fabbro – Will Fabbro even be negotiating a contract with the Predators? Nashville will need to go the eight-skater protection route in the expansion draft in order to keep him away from Seattle, unless another deal is worked out in the next few weeks. If they do find a way to keep the 23-year-old defenseman, he’ll need a new contract this summer as an arbitration-eligible RFA. Fabbro is only coming off his entry-level deal, but since he signed as a 21-year-old and played ten games in his first season (including his six playoff games) he has already completed the three professional years that arbitration required.

G Juuse Saros – Don’t forget about Saros, who is also an RFA after taking complete control of the starting role this season. The 26-year-old netminder posted a .927 save percentage and finished sixth in Vezina Trophy voting, truly establishing himself among the league’s elite goaltenders. That kind of performance certainly came in a timely fashion for Saros, who is scheduled for unrestricted free agency next summer and could be in for a huge payday this year. If the Predators want to lock him up long-term, he’ll be getting much more than the $1.5MM he has earned in each of the last three years. If he decides to go to arbitration, a one-year deal would walk him right to the open market.

Other RFAs: F Mathieu Olivier, F Michael McCarron, F Anthony Richard, F Rem Pitlick, F Josh Wilkins, F Tanner Jeannot, F Lukas Craggs, F Cole Smith, D Ben Harpur,  D Frederic Allard, D Jeremy Davies, D Josh Healey

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Mikael Granlund – The veteran forward entered the UFA market last offseason as a top name, but ended up settling for just a one-year deal in Nashville after seeing the limited flat-cap market. He still earned a solid paycheck at $3.75MM, but is now another year older and enters free agency with more question marks. Granlund has never seemed to fit perfectly in Nashville, unable to reach the offensive heights that he found in Minnesota, and now has just 62 points in 130 games since arriving in 2019–he scored 47 goals and 136 points over his best two-year period with the Wild. Is his time as a play-driving top-six talent gone? Can he still play center on a full-time basis? It will be tough for a team to offer a long-term deal without knowing the answers to those questions, but it doesn’t really make sense for Nashville to bring him back unless it’s on another reasonable short-term contract.

D Pekka Rinne – 683 regular season games. 19,225 shots faced. 369 wins. 60 shutouts. These are all franchise records that Rinne holds for the Predators after 15 years with the organization, but a tough decision will be coming for Poile and the Nashville front office. Rinne is now 38 and has a .900 save percentage over his past two seasons. He had a losing record this year and isn’t the Vezina-winning goaltender he once was. Some would expect that means it’s the Predators or retirement, but when their season ended Rinne explained that he didn’t “want to close any doors.” Seeing the veteran netminder in any other colors would certainly be shocking, but at some point, the Predators are going to have to move on, whether he’s ready to call it quits or not.

Other UFAs: F Brad Richardson, F Erik Haula, F Sean Malone, F Michael Carcone, D Erik Gudbranson, D Luca Sbisa, D Tyler Lewington

Projected Cap Space

After moving Arvidsson’s contract the Predators have nearly $23MM in cap space to work with this summer, but a lot of that could be eaten up just by their restricted free agents. The expansion draft could provide some additional cap relief depending on who the Kraken decide to take, but it will be tough to really dole out a ton of money on the open market.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Minnesota has been busy in recent days with some re-signings but still has two impact RFAs and several veteran UFAs in need of new contracts.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kirill Kaprizov – Technically speaking, Kaprizov doesn’t even qualify for restricted free agency as he doesn’t have enough service time to qualify to be tendered an offer sheet but he needs a new deal nevertheless.  Minnesota is believed to have already made a long-term offer to the 24-year-old but such a contract doesn’t appear to be to Kaprizov’s liking.  Something shorter-term that sets him up for a new deal in a more favorable cap environment while being in the prime of his career would be preferable on his part though not for the Wild.  With Kaprizov not having arbitration rights either, his leverage is limited to stalling in the hopes of getting a better offer from Minnesota so this is a deal that could be slow-played longer into the summer.  Regardless of how long it takes, he will make substantially more than the $925K base salary (which includes the signing bonus) he made on his entry-level deal this season.

F Kevin Fiala – Despite the last two seasons being shortened by the pandemic, the winger has reached the 20-goal mark each time for only the second and third time of his career.  Fiala has settled in nicely with the Wild after being acquired back at the 2019 trade deadline in exchange for Mikael Granlund.  The 24-year-old has arbitration eligibility for the first time and is two years away from reaching unrestricted free agency.  If a long-term deal is worked out that buys out some of those UFA-eligible years, Fiala may have a shot at doubling the $3MM AAV he had on his bridge contract.  Worth noting, his qualifying offer stands a little higher than that at $3.5MM.

Other RFAs: F Will Bitten, F Brandon Duhaime, F Mason Shaw

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bonino – Statistically speaking, Bonino had a similar season on a points per game basis compared to his time with Nashville (who traded him to Minnesota last fall).  At this stage of his career, he’s best served as a third-line center and as someone who is routinely above average at the faceoff dot, he should have considerable interest on the open market.  However, spending on the bottom six dried up last summer and with the cap staying flat, that’s likely to continue this summer.  Accordingly, it would be surprising to see the 33-year-old match the $4.1MM AAV he got from the Predators in his last trip to free agency back in 2017.

F Marcus Johansson – Last season didn’t go well for Johansson as he managed just six goals and eight assists in 36 games.  However, he had two straight 30-point seasons before that and going back to his time in Washington, he had five seasons of 44 or more points.  There’s a track record of offensive success in the right environment.  He was patient two years ago and landed a two-year, $9MM contract from Buffalo but he won’t have a shot at that this time around.  However, he’s an intriguing middle-six option out there, especially if he’s open to a one-year contract to try to boost his value and show he has something left in the tank.

D Ian Cole – The veteran was acquired early in the season to stabilize their third pairing and he did just that, logging nearly 16 minutes a night over 52 games while providing plenty of physicality.  Cole should have a decent-sized market this summer but it will be in that limited capacity, not as a top-four player which is how he was able to sell himself three years ago in free agency when he managed to land a $4.25MM price tag.  Half of that may be the ceiling this time around.

Other UFAs: D Matt Bartkowski, D Louis Belpedio, F Joseph Cramarossa, F Gabriel Dumont, G Andrew Hammond, D Brad Hunt, F Luke Johnson, D Ian McCoshen, D Dakota Mermis, F Kyle Rau

Projected Cap Space

Minnesota finds themselves with just under $16MM in cap space which may sound like a lot at first but a significant chunk of that will need to be allocated to Kaprizov and Fiala.  By the time they fill out their roster with some depth players, that will basically be it for summer spending.  As a result, if GM Bill Guerin wants to add a significant piece to his roster, that will likely have to come via the trade route.  If that doesn’t happen, it could be a relatively quiet summer for the Wild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

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The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Toronto.

Things didn’t quite go according to plan for the Maple Leafs this season.  Yes, they won the North Division as expected but it didn’t result in much playoff success.  Instead, they were ousted in the opening round once again, this time by Montreal.  GM Kyle Dubas indicated after the season that he doesn’t intend to move any of his four highly-paid forwards so they will be looking to make smaller moves to try to upgrade this summer.  Here is what they should be working on this offseason.

Add A New Assistant Coach

Seattle’s decision to hire Dave Hakstol as their first head coach caught many by surprise but it also created a vacancy on Toronto’s bench that will need to be filled.  With head coach Sheldon Keefe still relatively inexperienced at the NHL level and Manny Malhotra not having any head coaching experience, bringing in a replacement who has been an NHL head coach would be a nice addition to the bench although Paul MacLean is also on the staff and could be elevated to a larger role.  Bruce Boudreau was speculated as a possible addition last offseason and could make sense this summer as well.

Re-Sign Or Replace Hyman

Zach Hyman has worked his way up Toronto’s depth chart from a depth piece at the start to a key member of their top six and had a strong season offensively with 15 goals and 18 assists in 43 games.  Of course, offense is only a piece of what he brings to the table as he’s an effective checker and a strong complementary piece on the top line.  This has him well-positioned to land a significant contract in free agency later this month, even with a flat salary cap in a free agent environment that wasn’t kind to most wingers back in the fall.

But is that a contract they will be able to afford?  They have over $70MM in commitments for next season already to 16 players and another high-priced deal would force them into even more low-cost depth pickups to stay cap compliant while filling out the roster.  On the other hand, can they afford to lose him?  Yes, he’s a complementary player on their number one line but he has logged more than 19 minutes a game the last two years while leading the way in penalty kill ice time among forwards as well.  If he goes elsewhere, it’d be a big loss.

But if he winds up outpricing himself from what Toronto can realistically afford, Hyman’s departure would allow them to shop in the free agent market for a replacement.  They’ve been linked to Nashville’s Mikael Granlund before and someone in his projected price range is what the Maple Leafs can more realistically afford while filling out the rest of their roster.  Their preference would undoubtedly be to keep Hyman but if that doesn’t happen (and at this point, it sure sounds like the asking price is too high for their liking), the ability to dangle a spot alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner could make them a team to watch for in free agency.

Rielly Extension Talks

Morgan Rielly has been a fixture on Toronto’s back end for the last eight years, often being their number one option over the last several seasons.  His current contract – one that carries an AAV of $5MM – has turned into quite a bargain along the way.  However, that deal is up a year from now which means that the 27-year-old is eligible to sign a contract extension as soon as the calendar flips to the 2021-22 league year on July 28th.

It’s safe to say that he will be landing a sizable raise and could push past the $7MM mark as long as he has a strong final year on his contract.  If he gets to the open market, he’ll be one of the more sought-after players in the 2022 free agent class.  And with over $57MM in commitments to just nine players for 2022-23 (which doesn’t factor in a new deal for Hyman or a replacement), there will come a time where they won’t be able to keep all of their core players.

But James Mirtle of The Athletic recently reported (subscription link) that Rielly is willing to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs.  If that’s the case, Dubas would be wise to try to get a new deal for Rielly done this summer, giving them some extra certainty in terms of what their cap picture looks like for 2022 and beyond.  If the framework of an extension was in place before free agency started, it’d give them some better clarity on what they can afford long-term on a Hyman re-signing or replacement as well as one other need that will have to be filled.

Platoon Partner For Campbell

That need is finding a second goaltender to team up with Jack Campbell next season.  Frederik Andersen is set to become an unrestricted free agent and while he has expressed an interest in returning, he’d also like to have chance at being a starter again.  That probably won’t come with Toronto with the way that Campbell played down the stretch and in the playoffs.

Campbell may not be the undisputed starter but he could very well be on the stronger side of the platoon which would be a good situation for him as he heads into the final year of his contract before being eligible for unrestricted free agency for the first time.

The good news for the Maple Leafs is that there are several goalies who fit as possible platoon partners.  The bad news is that those netminders still carry a notable price tag with deals for them in recent years hovering in the $3MM range.  They have the room to afford that for next season but it will undoubtedly cut into what they can afford in Hyman’s slot.

If there’s an opportunity to do what they did when they acquired Campbell and bring in a lower-cost netminder with team control beyond next season, that may very well be the more desirable route even though it would cost them an asset or two versus free agency where it’s just money.  That would give them more flexibility on the cap and some certainty with Campbell’s deal being up next summer barring an extension over the summer.

Either way, through trade or a free agent signing, Toronto will need to add another goaltender over the next few weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the expansion process rolled around, the Avalanche were in great shape. They ended up losing depth goaltender Calvin Pickard, who never even played a game in the Vegas organization. He cleared waivers and then was traded for a sixth-round pick and Tobias Lindberg the following October, meaning Colorado certainly didn’t part with much of an asset. This time around the Avalanche are a much deeper roster and things may not be so painless.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri, Joonas Donskoi, J.T. Compher, Valeri Nichushkin, Tyson Jost, Kiefer Sherwood, Travis Barron, Logan O’Connor, Ty Lewis, Jayson Megna, Vladislav Kamenev

Defense:

Erik Johnson (NMC), Samuel Girard, Devon Toews, Ryan Graves, Dennis Gilbert, Cale Makar, Jacob MacDonald

Goalies:

Hunter Miska, Jonas Johansson

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Gabriel Landeskog, F Brandon Saad, D Patrik Nemeth, G Philipp Grubauer, G Devan Dubnyk

Notable Exemptions

F Shane Bowers, F Sampo Ranta, F Alex Newhook, F Martin Kaut, D Conor Timmins, D Bowen Byram, G Pavel Francouz

Key Decisions

Just reading through the list of eligible players you can start to see a problem for the Avalanche, and a potential reason why Landeskog remains unsigned. It’s not clear whether the team has a deal “in the drawer” for their captain (reports indicate that isn’t the case, though things can change at any moment), but it certainly would help the situation if he signs after the draft instead of before it. Remember, that strategy technically gives the Kraken a chance to speak with Landeskog ahead of the draft, meaning they could offer him a huge contract to try and pry him away from the only team he’s ever known.

Even if he and Saad are not signed before the draft though, it still leaves Colorado GM Joe Sakic with a tough decision. Do you protect seven forwards and three defensemen, potentially risking a young player from the blueline, or eight skaters in order to make sure that defense corps stays intact? The decision will be almost entirely based on whether Johnson agrees to waive his no-movement clause, which would normally force the Avalanche into protecting him. The veteran defenseman is an unlikely target for Seattle because of his age, contract, and recent injury issues, meaning waiving it would only serve to help the franchise he currently plays for.

Assuming he does waive it and the team goes the seven forwards-three defenseman route, there are still plenty of decisions to be made. Rantanen, MacKinnon, Burakovsky, and Nichushkin are easy choices to protect at forward, but that leaves the group of Kadri, Donskoi, Compher, Jost, and O’Connor to fill just three spots.

It might have been easy to pencil Kadri into that must-protect list a few months ago, but after getting another playoff suspension, there will have to be at least some discussion over whether he should be a core piece moving forward. Three times now in his career he hasn’t been available when his team needed him most, and the 30-year-old center has just one year left on his contract.

Donskoi and Compher are both valuable players, but given their cap hits ($3.9MM and $3.5MM respectively) it wouldn’t be the end of the world to lose one of them, with so many free agents to sign this offseason. One of those free agents is Jost, who is an arbitration-eligible RFA. He too has settled into a role with the Avalanche and is still just 23, but hasn’t experienced the offensive breakout that was expected when the team selected him 10th overall in 2016.

That leaves O’Connor, who some may overlook simply because of his undrafted status and lack of NHL experience, but there were real moments of upside from him this season as a bottom-six piece. The fact that he will carry a cap hit next season that is less than league minimum ($725K) makes him a valuable option for an Avalanche team that will be skirting the salary cap ceiling all year long.

Of course, even if Johnson does waive his clause, it doesn’t mean things come easy on defense. The simple answer is to protect Makar, Girard and Toews, who each logged more than 23 minutes a night this season and are all core pieces of the roster. But that would mean exposing Graves, who arguably outplayed Toews and Girard in the playoffs and carries the lowest cap hit of the three. The 26-year-old Graves looks like he is still improving and could very well be part of the Kraken top-four if left exposed.

In net, there isn’t even anyone that really deserves protecting, unless Grubauer re-signs before the draft. That means the Avalanche could actually make a trade for a new starting goaltender before the draft if they believe their incumbent Vezina finalist will be too expensive to bring back.

Projected Protection List

F Mikko Rantanen
F Nathan MacKinnon
F Andre Burakovsky
F Nazem Kadri
F Joonas Donskoi
F Valeri Nichushkin
F Tyson Jost

D Samuel Girard
D Devon Toews
D Cale Makar

G Jonas Johansson

*Assuming Landeskog does not re-sign before the draft and Johnson waives his NMC

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): J.T. Compher
Defensemen (3): Erik Johnson, Ryan Graves, Jacob MacDonald

Of course, in this situation the Avalanche still have some work to do. They need to leave two forwards exposed that meet the requirements, and by protecting both Donskoi and Kadri it leaves just one. A new contract for Landeskog,  or Saad would change this, but they could also just extend Bellemare or even Calvert if he is healthy enough to return to action. On the back end, Johnson waiving his NMC would do the trick, but even without him they have enough options to fill the single required spot.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Los Angeles Kings

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. The Kings have already done a lot of their offseason work, unrestricted free agency isn’t really even an issue for them in the coming weeks.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Andreas Athanasiou – What the heck is Athanasiou? Is he the 30-goal scorer from 2018-19, the mess that went unqualified in Edmonton, or the 40-point-pace utility knife that he showed this season? If the Kings want to find out, they could be taking the risk of arbitration awarding Athanasiou a hefty contract. The 26-year-old could settle for a one-year deal in the arbitration process and head to unrestricted free agency a year from now if the Kings decide to issue him a qualifying offer. If he were to sign a multi-year extension, it would be something new for Athanasiou, who has only ever played on one- or two-year deals since his entry-level contract expired.

F Trevor Moore – Talk about work ethic. Moore has climbed all the way from undrafted college free agent to full-time NHL forward, setting career-highs in goals (10), points (23), and games played (56) this season. Coming off a two-year deal that carried an average annual value of just $775K, the 26-year-old winger is looking at a raise, even if it won’t be a huge one.

F Lias Andersson – Signing a 22-year-old restricted free agent with just 89 NHL games to his name usually isn’t a big issue, but nothing has ever come simply with Andersson. The seventh-overall pick from the 2017 draft, Andersson exercised his European Assignment Clause for the New York Rangers in his first season and left North America altogether during the 2019-20 season. This year he split time between HV71, the Kings, and the Ontario Reign, but does look like he should have an inside track for a full-time roster spot come next season. Andersson isn’t arbitration-eligible, meaning the Kings could wait and force him to sign his qualifying offer (or an offer sheet) if he wants to play in the NHL this season, meaning the only leverage he really has is the threat of another return to Europe.

Other RFAs: F Matt Luff, F Bokondji Imama, F Michael Eyssimont, F Drake Rymsha, D Kale Clague, D Jacob Moverare, D Austin Strand

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

D Christian Wolanin – Impressively, the Kings have just four UFAs left to sign, and Wolanin is the only one that played more than two games for Los Angeles this season. He played three. There’s not really much to say about the Group VI UFA, other than he could be a potential depth piece for the Kings next season. He played 15 games with the Senators before being traded at the end of March. During his three games with the Kings, he failed to record a point.

G Troy Grosenick – Grosenick certainly isn’t a must-sign goaltender, but like any team, the Kings will have to address their depth at the position this summer. They do have a pair of interesting prospects, but a veteran third-stringer like Grosenick should probably be brought in just for emergency situations. The 31-year-old did play two games this season, posting a .922 save percentage. That took his career total to four appearances.

Other UFAs: D Mark Alt, D Daniel Brickley

Projected Cap Space

After acquiring Viktor Arvidsson earlier this month, the Kings now have just under $15.5MM in cap space heading into the summer. With so few players to re-sign that’s a good amount for the free agent market, but it doesn’t mean the team can spend it haphazardly. If their young players develop as expected, there will be big extensions to come down the pipe in the next few years, meaning they’ll need cap space to fit everyone in. Remember, the trio of Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick still combine for a cap hit of nearly $27MM the next two seasons (with Doughty’s deal stretching much further than that). Adding free agents makes sense, adding long-term money might not.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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