Atlantic Notes: Kapanen, Johnsson, Ristolainen, Krejci
While the Toronto Maple Leafs know what to expect when it comes to the future contract for Mitch Marner, it isn’t as straight forward for their other two key restricted free agents in Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson. Some of the reason for that is that young forwards with little experience who post an impressive season, often don’t get rewarded when they hit restricted free agency and that could easily be the case for the Maple Leafs, according to The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required).
Kapanen, who hits restricted free agency for the first time, had an impressive season last year as he put up 20 goals and 44 points as a full-time player. However, before that, he had played a combined 55 games (and tallying just 10 points) over three separate seasons. Johnsson posted very similar numbers as he tallied 20 goals and 43 points in 73 games last season, but has played just 82 games in two years.
There are a number of comparables, however, including Ondrej Kase, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Phillip Danault, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Teuvo Teravainen and Andre Burakovsky. All of them opted to sign a bridge deal with the hopes to prove to their respective teams that they can score like that consistently, suggesting that each of them may make anywhere from $2.7MM to $3.3MM AAV if they follow suit.
Of course, the problem could come down to offer sheets as both players would likely be prime candidates to sign offer sheets with other teams that could be closer to $4MM with a less risky compensation (just a second-round pick) which could cause quite a bit of havoc to Toronto’s salary cap situation.
- Despite multiple rumors that the Buffalo Sabres are considering dealing defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, who has never been able to take that next step and become a star defenseman like the team thought would happen when he joined the franchise six years ago, TSN’s Darren Dreger (while appearing on WGR 550) said he doesn’t believe that the Sabres will entertain the notion of trading him. Dreger said he doesn’t believe it’s a move the team feels is critical, but general manager Jason Botterill is still open to listening to offers. Of course, one fear of moving him is that Ristolainen could take that next step wherever he gets traded to, which the Sabres would prefer to avoid.
- NHL.com’s Eric Russo writes that the Boston Bruins have been without center David Krejci for the past few days as the center has been out with an illness. He missed Thursday’s scrimmage and skipped practice on Saturday although head coach Bruce Cassidy said he hopes to have Krejci back on Sunday. “Precautionary,” said Cassidy. “I suspect we’ll see him tomorrow. That is the plan. If he’s not out tomorrow, now there’s a little bit of worry there. But right now, I believe he’ll be practicing tomorrow.”
Blue Jackets Notes: Dzingel, Wennberg, Nutivaara, Nash
Ryan Dzingel may have wished that he signed a contract extension with the Ottawa Senators after all.
The winger opted against signing a contract extension before the trade deadline, which forced Ottawa to send him to the Columbus Blue Jackets instead. However, the 27-year-old hasn’t fared very well under head coach John Tortorella. He posted just 12 points in 21 games and has been scoreless in five playoff games. In Game 1 of Columbus’ second-round series against Boston, Dzingel only got 11:06 of ice time in an overtime game, the lowest among all forwards. That eventually prompted Tortorella to play Alexander Wennberg, who has long sat in Tortorella’s doghouse, in favor of Dzingel for Game 2, leading to what many believe was a healthy scratch, writes the Ottawa Sun’s Don Brennan.
While there was no confirmation that Dzingel was a healthy scratch, Brennan doubts that he is injured as he was one of the last players to leave the ice at the most recent optional skate. In fact Dzingel’s stock, which was quite high at the trade deadline, has dropped significantly and could have a major effect on his next contract. It is looking less and less that the speedy winger who played at Ohio State University will sign a long-term deal in Columbus next year and despite a 26-goal regular season, his suitors seem to be dropping.
- Speaking of Wennberg, the center, who had been a healthy scratch for seven straight games, fared quite well on the ice Saturday, playing 16:11 on the third line with Alexandre Texier and Oliver Bjorkstrand, according to NHL.com’s Jeff Svoboda. Wennberg could have proven that he belongs back in the lineup permanently as the center was crucial on the penalty kill that held the Bruins to just one goal on four chances.”The kill did a really good job,” Wennberg said. “Personally, it was good to be back out there. I tried to make good reads and have a good stick. It’s good to be out there.”
- In the same article, Svoboda reports that defenseman Markus Nutivaara could be close to returning to the lineup. While Tortorella won’t talk about lineup changes, Nutivaara skated with the team during an optional practice before Game 2 on Saturday and while he didn’t play Saturday, he could be ready to return to the lineup shortly. Nutivaara suffered an undisclosed injury in Game 2 of their series with Tampa Bay after being boarded by Nikita Kucherov and suspended for a game.
- Riley Nash, who took an explosive hit from former teammate Zdeno Chara in the first period of Saturday’s game, seems to be OK, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline. Nash looked shaken up, but was back on the ice not long after the hit. “That was a big hit,” Tortorella said. “It took him a few minutes on the bench, and next thing you know, he’s ready to go. He played a really good game, too, probably one of our most patient guys with the puck, especially on the wall play of our end zone.”
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Columbus Blue Jackets
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Columbus Blue Jackets.
What are the Blue Jackets most thankful for?
There has been a dark cloud around the Blue Jackets at the start of the season with two of their best players suggesting they would rather be elsewhere (I’ll talk about that later) and then a significant injury to top defenseman Seth Jones, who tore a ligament in his knee during the preseason and missed the first month of the season. Throw in a disappointing season the previous year from players such as Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Dubinsky and Boone Jenner and many wondered whether the franchise might take a step back this season.
Instead, the Blue Jackets have played quite well and stand in second place in the Metropolitan Division with a solid 15-9-2 record this season. Several players have stepped up and the team has gotten solid goaltending. With a solid defense and lots of offense, the Blue Jackets look like a team that will contend and hopefully can make a deep push into the playoffs as the franchise hasn’t gotten out of the first round since the 2008-09 season.
Who are the Blue Jackets most thankful for?
Not more than a year ago, Columbus handed Cam Atkinson a seven-year, $41.1MM extension and he responded with a disappointing season, posting a pedestrian 24 goals and 46 points, the lowest of his career since the 2014-15 season. With a number of veterans struggling after being handed long-term deals (Dubinsky, Wennberg), many wondered whether the Blue Jackets made a mistake when they inked the then 28-year-old to such a long extension.
Fast forward one year and Atkinson is proving his value with a banner season so far. He has already scored 16 goals and 27 points in 25 games and looks to be developing into a point-per-game player, which would blow away any previous career highs. His team-leading five power play goals and two short-handed goals prove he has become the team’s most valuable player on the team so far this season amongst a large number of big names.
What would the Blue Jackets be even more thankful for?
While the team has got some secondary scoring, the team keeps hoping to turn some players’ careers around. The team signed Anthony Duclair to a one-year deal in hopes of developing him into the player everyone thought he would develop into. The Blue Jackets also had high hopes that Oliver Bjorkstrand would develop into a top-six player. While Duclair has already put up eight goals this season, he’s fallen into head coach John Tortorella‘s doghouse and is has only scored one goal in the last eight games. Bjorkstrand, on the other hand, has struggled all year having scored just two goals along with two assists. Both are now fighting it out between each other for who gets a spot on Columbus’ third line. Hopefully, one of those player can distinguish themselves and take their game to a new level.
What should be on the Blue Jackets Holiday Wish List?
The team has a pair of major concerns on their roster with Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky about to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of the year. Both players have expressed a desire to play elsewhere, which could be devastating to the franchise. With the team unwilling to trade them off if they are in the hunt as the team values taking the team on a deep playoff run over trading them both off and rebuilding their roster again, there is a good chance the team will hold onto them. Panarin has expressed a desire to be in a bigger city, while Bobrovsky is looking for a record-breaking contract even bigger than that of Carey Price‘s eight-year, $84MM deal that he signed last summer.
General manager Jarmo Kekalainen hopes that a winning culture can convince each of them to remain with the team so the team can finally make a Stanley Cup run that the franchise needs for its fans. Even if the team can retain one of them, that would be a big boost for the franchise which would likely fall flat without both of them.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Current Cap Hit: $73,890,832 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Zach Werenski (one year remaining, $925K)
F Pierre-Luc Dubois (two years remaining, $894K)
F Sonny Milano (one year remaining, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Dubois: $2.5MM
Werenski: $800K
Milano: $400K
Total: $3.7MM
The Blue Jackets got a big boost from Dubois who should provide the team with a top center for quite a long time as the 20-year-old had a solid rookie campaign as he posted 20 goals and 48 points. Those numbers should exponentially increase as he gets older, bigger and more comfortable in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him develop into a 60-70 point player this year already. And with two years remaining, he will continue to be a bargain for some time.
Werenski had a mixed bag of a season as he saw his points totals drop from his rookie season (47 points) to his second season (37 points). Yet his goal totals increased from his rookie season (10) to his sophomore season (16). However, Werenski underwent surgery for a shoulder injury that had been causing him pain since October, suggesting he played injured all season. A fully healthy Werenski could give the team one of the top young defensemen in the league.
Milano arrived with much fanfare, but he struggled finding a permanent place in the lineup, as he often received relatively few minutes on the third line due to his struggles on defense. However, Milano showed flashes of scoring ability as the 22-year-old posted 14 goals in 55 games. With a year under his belt, Milano might be able to take those numbers to a much bigger level if he can prove he can play a two-way game for coach John Tortorella.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Sergei Bobrovsky ($7.43MM, UFA)
F Artemi Panarin ($6MM, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($2.83MM, RFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($900K, RFA)
F Lukas Sedlak ($825K, RFA)
F Alex Broadhurst ($725K, RFA)
F Markus Hannikainen ($675K, RFA)
D Scott Harrington ($675K, RFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($650K, RFA)
The biggest news all offseason is the fact that Panarin has told Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen says he’s not ready to discuss an extension. Despite the GM’s attempt to speak to Panarin to convince him to stay, it looks like Panarin wants to head elsewhere once his contract expires at the end of the season and he becomes a unrestricted free agent. The 27-year-old winger posted a career-high 82 points after being acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks, but seems to be looking to play in a city with a more diverse market. While there have been rumors that Kekalainen has been looking into trading options, little has come from it. The team may opt to wait until the trade deadline, but that could also lessen the return.
Perhaps more concerning is the contract situation with Bobrovsky. The 30-year-old goaltender is also in the final year of his contract. While there is no talk of leaving Columbus, the Blue Jackets have to be somewhat concerned about the veteran goaltender’s asking price. He will be 32 years old when his next contract takes effect, but Bobrovsky wants term, the team could be paying him until he’s 40 years old and it’s extremely likely that the goalie will take less money than the $7.43MM he’s making on this contract. However, that’s a lot of money to be handing out to an aging goaltender. Bobrovsky’s numbers are still good as he posted a 2.42 GAA and an impressive .920 save percentage in 63 games. However, his struggles in the playoffs isn’t working for him either. Regardless, the team could find itself in quite the contract negotiations in the coming summer.
Duclair is another interesting player, who signed a one-year deal after disappointing in both Arizona and Chicago. The 22-year-old opted to sign a minimum “show me” contract to prove he belongs in the NHL, but he’s struggled to produce over the years after a successful season back in 2015-16 when he potted 20 goals. Since then, he’s managed to post just 16 goals in two seasons. If he can find his game in Columbus, the Blue Jackets could still retain him as he’s a restricted free agent.Read more
Columbus Blue Jackets Sign Oliver Bjorkstrand To Three-Year Deal
The Columbus Blue Jackets announced they have signed their final restricted free agent as the team has come to terms with forward Oliver Bjorkstrand on a three-year contract. NHL.com’s Brian Hedger reports the deal is for $7.5MM with a $2.5MM AAV.
The deal constitutes a bridge deal as the 23-year-old winger will still have one season left as a restricted free agent when this deal ends in 2021 and he will have arbitration rights at that point. The $2.5MM salary is solid raise from the $872K he was making on his entry-level deal.
Bjorkstrand is the last of three restricted free agents the Blue Jackets had to deal with. The promising forward had a solid year in Columbus in his first full season there. He posted 11 goals and 40 points in 82 games. A third-round pick in 2013, Bjorkstrand showed immediate promise for Columbus after being drafted when he posted 50 goals for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL and then followed that up with 63 the next year. A fast-skating forward with a hard shot and quick release, he has produced at the AHL level, while splitting time in Columbus the next two years, but earned himself a full-time role this past year.
“He is just scratching the surface of the type of player he can be and we believe he has the potential to be a dynamic offensive player for our club,” said Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen (via Hedger).
With the deal in place, Columbus will have $5.6MM in salary cap space remaining with 24 players under contract, so the team will have to make adjustments to their roster as they can only have 23 when the season starts.
Metropolitan Notes: Brassard, Bjorkstrand, Quenneville
With a sudden logjam at the center position, there was talk that the Pittsburgh Penguins might look to unload someone with the name of Derick Brassard being near the top of the list. However, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that the Penguins may now be looking to do something different instead.
The scribe writes that the Penguins intend to experiment with Brassard in hopes of converting the long-time center to the wing and move him up a line. The 30-year-old has played in 716 NHL games and has never played anywhere other than center. However, the belief is that with his skating and shooting skills, Brassard might be a solid wing option for either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin and would free up room for others to fill in the bottom-six center roles.
While Brassard was having a solid season with Ottawa, posting 18 goals in 58 games, he didn’t thrive as well in a lesser role in Pittsburgh, where he went from averaging 18:21 ATOI to 15:12 with the Penguins. However, an increased role in the team’s top-six could be exactly what Brassard and the Penguins both need.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets may be getting close to signing one of their restricted free agents as The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reports that the Blue Jackets and Oliver Bjorkstrand are closing in on a deal. Portzline follows that up by reporting that his sources say they are not buying out any of his unrestricted free agent years, suggesting it is likely to be a bridge deal, most likely for two or three years. The 23-year-old winger put up a solid season last year for Columbus, posting double-digit goals for the first time in his career, posting 11 goals and 40 points. Bjorkstrand just finished up his entry-level deal and was paid $872K.
- New Jersey Devils prospect John Quenneville had high expectations coming into the 2017-18 season, but various injuries held him back and the 2013 first-round pick is starting to run out of chances to develop into the highly-touted prospect. In fact, in the team’s exit meeting with Queenville, the team was quite frank with the 22-year-old, telling him to get into shape. The Athletic’s Corey Masisak (subscription required) writes that Quenneville has done just that this offseason, working with a sports trainer alongside many athletes, including the New York Islanders’ Johnny Boychuk. He has already got himself to 210 pounds with just 9.3 percent body weight in hopes of finding a regular role in New Jersey. He only played two games for New Jersey and managed just 43 in Binghampton, posting 14 goals and 34 points.
Blue Jackets Unlikely To Add At Center This Summer
It was another strong regular season for the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2017-18. The team had its second-best finish with 97 points behind the strong efforts of all-world goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, blossoming young defensemen like Seth Jones and Zach Werenski, rookie forward Pierre-Luc Dubois and game-changing acquisition Artemi Panarin. Yet, the Jackets were again ousted in the first round and still have yet to advance past that stage of the postseason in their 17-year history. In evaluating what area Columbus needs to improve in next season, some will point to poor special teams or a lack of shots on net. However, the major issue this season was the center position, where everyone not named Dubois had a disappointing campaign. The scoring depth, defensive ability, and face-off success of the group was all lacking this year. Entering the off-season with more than $13MM in salary cap space, many think the Blue Jackets should make a competitive offer to John Tavares or even Paul Stastny or Tyler Bozak in an effort to solve their problems down the middle. As The Columbus Dispatch’s Steve Gorten describes, that is unlikely to be the case.
While on surface level Columbus seems to be in fine shape regarding the salary cap, Gorten feels that GM Jarmo Kekalainen needs to tread carefully when contemplating adding salary to the current roster. In the short term, the team already faces several free agency dilemmas. Restricted free agents Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Ryan Murray are in need of new contracts and the team is surely to be interested in retaining several impending unrestricted free agents such as Ian Cole, Matt Calvert, and possibly Thomas Vanek. The team’s long-term considerations are more pressing though; Columbus will need to pay Panarin, Werenski, and Bobrovsky after next season, all of whom will command significant contracts in both term and salary.
Given these spending limitations, both this year and in the future, signing a top free agent center is unlikely to be the right move for the Blue Jackets. Instead, Gorten suggests that Columbus stand pat and wait for their current centers to rebound from down seasons. 23-year-old Alexander Wennberg showed 60+ point potential last season, but injuries and long stretches of poor play kept him to just 35 points in 66 games this year, the first season of a six-year, $29.4MM deal. Health may be all it takes to get Wennberg back into that true #1 center range and the 2013 first-rounder may still make his contract look like a bargain and could even end up being a superior player to Dubois. For his part, Kekalainen has trust in the young forward, telling Gorten “I’m 100 percent confident with Wennberg that he’s going to have a great year next year.” What Kekalainen may be more focused on is improvement in the bottom-six, where the Jackets need a return to form from veteran Brandon Dubinsky. The 32-year-old is midway through a six-year, $35.MM deal but did not play to that level this season. Dubinsky was held to just 16 points in what was easily the worst season of his career. A buyout at this point in the contract would be very costly to Columbus, who are left to hope that he can bounce back. Gorten also suggests that the depth down the middle could be substantially bolstered by a prospects like Lukas Sedlak, Alexandre Texier, or Jonathan Davisson taking a step forward in their development, while there is also the off chance that the Jackets could land a potentially pro-ready pivot like Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Isac Lundestrom, or Barrett Hayton at pick #18 in the first round.
Even if all of that doesn’t work out, Columbus will also have options like Jenner and captain Nick Foligno, who they have hesitated to leave at center full-time, but are more than capable of playing the position if necessary. Rather than handcuff themselves with a free agent contract that could cause problems down the road, Gorten seems right in his take that hoping for the in-house options to step up their game seems to better suit the Blue Jackets this off-season.
The Best Fits For Matt Duchene
Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.
If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.
Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.
Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.
The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.
The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.
Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.
Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.
Third-Year Breakout Candidates
In the NFL, there is a prevailing theory that it takes wide receivers a few years to really establish themselves as forces in the league. Their third year is pointed at as a potential “breakout” period, when they can take a substantial step forward after learning how to better control their bodies and become accustomed to the league. While every year there are impact rookies in the NHL, there are still those that follow this same path. Despite getting plenty of playing time, they just don’t seem to put it together until that third season.
In 2016-17 we had plenty of examples of a player taking a huge step forward in his third NHL season. Many follow a normal development path like Leon Draisaitl, jumping from nine points in limited action, to 51 in his sophomore year and 77 in his third and best season so far. David Pastrnak—who remains unsigned by the Boston Bruins—on the other hand may be the best example of a third-year breakout. He registered 27 and 26 points in his first two seasons before finding another level last year to score 70 points. His jump of 54 points was one of the biggest in the league, and it came in just 75 games.
Jonathan Drouin came back from his troubled 2014-15 season to post a career-high 53 points last year in his third go-round, finally coming through on his drool-worthy offensive potential with some real production. Viktor Arvidsson was finally given a full-time opportunity in his third season and jumped from 22 career points to 61 in a single season (though it’s hard to even call his first year a real season since he only got into six games).
This year there are plenty of candidates for a breakout. Players who though performing admirably haven’t quite reached their potential during the first two seasons of their NHL careers, and could take a considerable step forward this season.
Colton Parayko – St. Louis Blues
Normally a defenseman who has started his career with 68 points in 160 games would be seen as a glowing success and not a breakout candidate, but that’s just how high the ceiling is for Parayko. With Kevin Shattenkirk moved on to greener pastures, Parayko should have even more opportunity to prove himself as one of the league’s young superstars. There is ample room to improve on his career-high of 35 points, and it’s not out of the question that he will receive Norris trophy votes as soon as this season.
Remember Parayko was drafted back in 2012, and ended up going to the University of Alaska for three seasons before entering professional hockey. He’s now 24, armed with a huge contract extension and ready to make it clear that he should be considered among the top tier of defensemen.
Noah Hanifin – Carolina Hurricanes
Hanifin has done everything the Hurricanes have asked of him, but still hasn’t come close to the rock solid top-pairing player that he flashed as a freshman in Boston College. Hanifin took over games in the college ranks, but has settled into a good-but-not-great role in Carolina. Sitting behind Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Justin Faulk on the depth chart, Hanifin could experience a similar breakout to Jacob Trouba if an injury forces him into a bigger role.
It’s interesting that fans have speculated on Hanifin being the odd man out in Carolina in trade scenarios for an upgrade at forward, even though his draft pedigree and early results should make him almost untouchable. He won’t turn 21 until January of next year and could easily find himself in the conversation as the Hurricanes’ best defenseman should he reach his immense ceiling.
Robby Fabbri – St. Louis Blues
Fabbri was well on his way to having a breakout season in his second year, playing at a near-50 point pace through 51 games. His season would be cut short in February when he suffered a knee injury, making 2017-18 one to watch for the young forward. In what should be an exceptional St. Louis offense, Fabbri is still sort of a wild card. Right now it looks like he may get to play with newcomer Brayden Schenn on the team’s second line, and in that spot he’ll hardly ever face the opponent’s best defensive group (they’ll be reserved for Vladimir Tarasenko and company).
Fabbri could easily find himself with a 60-point season this year, as long as the knee is back to 100% by the start of the year. Playing with offensive players like Schenn and Alex Steen will only help him work his magic in the attacking zone.
Nick Ritchie – Anaheim Ducks
Power forwards often take a little more time to develop, and the Ducks are still waiting on Ritchie to take the next step. In 77 games last year he put up 28 points, which while respectable isn’t the top-end goal scoring numbers they’d hoped for when they drafted him 10th overall. That production though came in limited minutes, and if he’s given the opportunity the numbers are sure to follow.
Ritchie played just under 13 minutes a night last season, but saw that number drop even further after Anaheim acquired Patrick Eaves at the deadline. Eaves is back, but he’s also now 33-years old and could take a big step back next season. If powerplay time becomes available, Ritchie could have a breakout season on his hands.
Oliver Bjorkstrand – Columbus Blue Jackets
Like Arvidsson, you can barely call Bjorkstrand’s first two years with Columbus seasons. He’s played in 38 games over the past two years, spending most of the time in the AHL instead. Still, he has provided tantalizing results in the minor leagues and has 21 points in his limited NHL sample. Even if that rate continued it would be a 45 point season for the third-round pick, good enough to constitute a breakout in his third season. But with Bjorkstrand there is even more upside.
In the WHL, the Danish forward dominated the competition scoring 144 goals in 193 games and has elite hockey sense with the puck. His nose for the net and ability to slide into undefended areas would allow him to be a consistent NHL scoring threat if given the chance. There are a ton of weapons in the Blue Jackets forward group, but if he were to find some early camp chemistry with one of the stars Bjorkstrand could easily slide into a top-six option without much resistance.
(*There are many other players who could experience a third-year breakout, and some will be discussed in future articles. This is not meant to be a ranking of any kind.)
Blue Jackets Notes: Team Building Goals, Gavrikov, Ruopp, Soberg
Refreshingly straightforward Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen was open and honest with Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman recently when asked about his teams short-term and long-term objectives. The Blue Jackets surprised many this past season with their stellar play, reaching 108 points on the year – a franchise record by a significant margin. Yet, Columbus was easily dispatched by the Eastern Conference champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round of the playoffs. Kekalainen understands that his team must get better if they ever want to reach their first Stanley Cup, but he is not worried. Kekalainen told Friedman that they “are not thinking short-term. Our window is not just open now. We are only cracking the window.” Kekalainen clearly believes that his young, talented team can compete for a long time – even with a difficult Expansion Draft situation looming – without having to worry entirely about just the next couple of seasons.
When discussing what exactly he want to do to improve the team, Kekalainen named a number one center and a “sniper in the key moments” as the biggest needs. He expands on the desire for a “sniper” by stating that the team will look internally and externally for players with greater finish around the net. In 2016-17, Cam Atkinson had a breakout year with a career-best 35 goals, courtesy of a 14.6% shooting percentage. Captain Nick Foligno and rookie Josh Anderson also broke the 14% shooting mark, while others like Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad, and Brandon Dubinsky topped the NHL average, generally somewhere around 9%. Yet, other key contributors including every starting defenseman, Boone Jenner, and William Karlsson were not as lucky with their accuracy. Kekalainen hopes to add players who can make up for some of those missed opportunities with a better eye for putting the puck in the back of the net.
One player who has been known as a “sniper” and may also fit the bill as a top center one day is Oliver Bjorkstrand. The 2013 third-round pick was nearly unstoppable as a junior player with the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks, but has cooled down since turning pro in 2015-16 with just pedestrian AHL numbers. He also has largely moved completely to right wing in that time as well. Yet, last season Bjorkstrand played in 26 games with the Blue Jackets, recording 55 shots and scoring six goals for a 10.9% shooting percentage. He also scored four goals in 12 NHL games in his rookie season. Some more ice time, possibly even some back at center, in 2017-18 could be an internal solution for Columbus’ need for finish. However, in speaking with Friedman, Kekalainen made no mention of Bjorkstrand as the answer to either problem. He also left Wennberg out of the mix for an internal number one center, even though the 22-year-old had an outstanding campaign in exactly that role, recording 13 goals and 46 assists. Wennberg is by no means a “sniper”, but if Kekalainen can separate the two biggest needs of his team, Wennberg certainly has the appearance of a potential top-31 center in the NHL down the road.
The two players tabbed by Kekalainen, the former as possible top center option and the latter as a potential elite NHL finisher, were unsurprisingly 2016 third-overall selection Pierre-Luc Dubois and 2015 third-rounder Keegan Kolesar. Dubois nearly made the Blue Jackets out of camp in 2016-17, but was sent back to junior before he could make his NHL debut. After a somewhat disappointing junior season production-wise, aside from a strong QMJHL postseason run, Dubois appears to have outgrown juniors and should be in Columbus next season. He possesses high-end two-way ability and hockey IQ and has unique strength, both with and without the puck, for his age. While it remains to be seen if Dubois can stick at center in the NHL rather than move to left wing, where many scouts projected him even before he was drafted, Dubois is very likely to make an impact for the Jackets next season and surely could be an option at number one center. Meanwhile, Kolesar may not be ready for the big-time next season, but when he does arrive, the 6’2″, 223-lb. right wing will also bring with him a developed two-way game. However, where Kolesar catches your eye is his finish: he can capitalize around the net and he can strike from afar with a great shot. Kolesar could be that “sniper” that Kekalainen is looking for, but not for a few more years.