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Nick Paul

Atlantic Notes: Toronto’s Trade Chips, Senators, Paul

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The Maple Leafs are certainly going to be looking to buy heading into next month’s trade deadline but as a result of the team making some splashes in recent years, their prospect pool and collection of draft picks isn’t the deepest to deal from.  Speaking with reporters today (video link), GM Kyle Dubas indicated that he can’t see the team dealing away their top chips, either their first-round pick or top prospect Matthew Knies.  He wouldn’t entirely rule out the idea of one of those pieces moving but for the time being, it appears that they’re not going to be in play.  Toronto has three other guaranteed selections plus potentially their own third-round pick depending on if Arizona opts to take it or a 2025 second-rounder as part of a previous swap.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Still with the Maple Leafs, while Knies has been speculated to be turning pro at the conclusion of his college season, he told TSN’s Mark Masters that he hasn’t decided which route to take yet and will wait until after Minnesota’s campaign comes to an end before considering his decision. The 20-year-old averaged a point per game in his rookie year last season and is ahead of that pace in 2022-23 with 17 goals and 13 assists in 28 contests.
  • Senators defenseman Artem Zub is expected to return to the lineup on Saturday, reports Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch (Twitter link). He has been out for a little under a month with a lower-body injury, his third extended absence of the season which has limited him to just 21 games so far.  Meanwhile, Garrioch tweets that while goalie Cam Talbot also skated today, he won’t play this weekend.  The veteran is dealing with a lower-body issue of his own and with Ottawa potentially wanting to move him by next month’s deadline, they’ll want to be cautious and make sure he’s fully healthy before bringing him back.  Talbot has retroactively been moved to injured reserve but can be activated as soon as he’s ready to return.
  • Lightning winger Nick Paul was a late scratch before tonight’s game against Colorado with the team announcing (Twitter link) that he’s listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury. The 27-year-old has been a capable secondary scorer in his first season with the team, notching 16 goals with 10 assists in 50 games.  Notably, with less than $720K in LTIR room per CapFriendly, Tampa Bay does not have enough space to call up a replacement for him on the roster.

Atlantic Notes: Senators Sale, Lightning, Krejci, Miller

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With it being announced yesterday that the Senators are initiating a process to examine selling the team, it’s expected that there will be several expressions of interest and there have been a handful of speculative possibilities so far for people that could be minority partners as part of a group of investors.  However, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch notes (Twitter link) that the NHL’s preference is to find a single buyer that can own at least a majority of the team over a collection of shareholders.  Of course, that doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to find one but on top of finding someone that will commit to keeping the team in Ottawa, they have other preferences in terms of who they’d prefer as the next owner of the team.

More from the Atlantic:

  • A pair of key Lightning players are questionable to suit up tonight as team reporter Chris Krenn relays (Twitter link) that defenseman Victor Hedman and center Nick Paul are both listed as game-time decisions. Hedman has missed the last two games with an undisclosed injury while Paul played in Thursday’s loss to Carolina.
  • The Bruins will get a key part of their attack back tonight as ESPN’s Kristen Shilton relays (Twitter link) that center David Krejci will return to the lineup after missing the last three games due to an upper-body injury. It has been a strong return to the NHL for the 36-year-old as he’s averaging a point per game through his first eight contests while anchoring the second line which is the same role he had prior to him leaving to go play at home last season.
  • Still with Boston, following the Bruins’ decision to sign Mitchell Miller yesterday, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman was asked to weigh in. He told reporters including Peter Baugh of The Athletic (Twitter link) that the 20-year-old is not presently NHL-eligible and that there’s a possibility that Miller may never be ruled eligible to play at the top level.  Substack columnist Sean Shapiro then reached out (Twitter link) to the AHL for comment based on Bettman’s remarks with the league’s response being that President Scott Howson would have to determine his eligibility since he is under suspension in the NHL so it’s not a guarantee that he’ll be able to play there either.

Lightning Agree To Seven-Year Extension With Nick Paul

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Nick Paul made a very good impression on the Lightning after being acquired from Ottawa at the trade deadline.  He did well enough, in fact, to earn a long-term contract as the team announced that they’ve signed the forward to a seven-year contract with an AAV of $3.15MM.  CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that the deal breaks down as follows:

2022-23: $750K base salary, $3.4MM signing bonus, full no-trade clause
2023-24: $2.15MM base salary, $2MM signing bonus, full no-trade clause
2024-25: $3.25MM base salary, full no-trade clause
2025-26: $3MM base salary, full no-trade clause
2026-27: $1.5MM base salary, $1MM signing bonus, 16-team no-trade clause
2027-28: $1.5MM base salary, $1MM signing bonus, 16-team no-trade clause
2028-29: $1.5MM base salary, $1MM signing bonus, 16-team no-trade clause

The 27-year-old had a career year in 2021-22, picking up 16 goals and 16 assists in 80 games between the Senators and Lightning but his production in Tampa Bay was certainly noteworthy as he collected 14 points in 21 contests despite seeing his average ice time drop by more than three minutes per game to 14:06.  Most of that time was spent on the wing but that changed in the playoffs as he mostly played down the middle.  His production dropped to just five goals and four helpers in their 23 postseason matches but he took 382 draws in what was largely a checking role while his playing time jumped to over 18 minutes a night in the process.

Paul had been believed to be seeking a multi-year deal with an AAV around the $3MM mark while with Ottawa, a price they clearly didn’t want to pay which resulted in him being sent to Tampa Bay for Mathieu Joseph and a 2024 fourth-round pick.  His showing down the stretch and in the playoffs certainly bolstered his market and he was able to surpass the $3MM threshold while getting close to a max-term agreement in the process.

Of course, this contract further tightens Tampa Bay’s salary cap situation.  They now have more than $87.6MM in commitments for next season, per CapFriendly, with a projected minimum-sized roster.  They’ll have some relief with Brent Seabrook’s $6.875MM remaining on LTIR but that doesn’t give them much room to work with as they look to find a way to keep winger Ondrej Palat and defenseman Jan Rutta in the fold; both players are pending unrestricted free agents.  On Thursday, it was reported that the Lightning were working with blueliner Ryan McDonagh to see if there’s a suitable trade he’d be open to which would give them some flexibility with the veteran carrying a $6.75MM cap charge for the next four years.  GM Julien BriseBois can check off one key item of his summer to-do list but there is still some work to be done.

TSN’s Darren Dreger was the first to report the two sides were closing in on an agreement while Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report the seven-year term.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Julien BriseBois Announces Lightning Injuries; Talks Free Agents

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The Tampa Bay Lightning front office now has to begin the work on next season, hoping to rebuild a team that came close to winning three Stanley Cups in a row. Anyone who watched the Final could tell that the list of injuries (on both sides) was long, and today general manager Julien BriseBois met with the media to explain some of those ailments.

Joe Smith of The Athletic relays that Brayden Point was dealing with a torn quad, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare had a meniscus injury, Anthony Cirelli had an AC joint sprain and will require surgery, Brandon Hagel had a fractured foot, Corey Perry had an AC joint sprain, Nick Paul had an AC joint sprain and an MCL sprain, Nikita Kucherov had a meniscus injury, and Ryan McDonagh had a “mangled” finger.

BriseBois also spoke about some of the team’s pending free agents, noting that they hope to bring back Paul, Ondrej Palat, and Jan Rutta if possible. Whether that is possible under the salary cap remains to be seen, though the Lightning are the last team anyone should rule out for finding creative solutions.

Paul, 27, was reportedly looking for a contract with an average annual value close to $3MM when he was still with the Ottawa Senators, though that number has likely increased thanks to incredible playoff performances. The 6’3″ forward can play both center and wing, kill penalties, line up next to skilled players, or provide energy from the bottom-six. He averaged more than 18 minutes a night in the postseason, scoring five goals including two game-winners.

Palat meanwhile is a franchise icon in Tampa Bay, having played his entire career for the organization to this point. Originally selected 208th overall in 2011, he now has 423 points over 628 regular season games and is one of the most versatile two-way wingers in the NHL. He has an eye-popping 12 game-winning goals in the playoffs, and led all players with 11 even-strength goals in this year’s tournament. Now 31, there will be plenty of teams trying to bring in his experience should the Lightning be unable to retain him.

Snapshots: Point, Mock Draft, Kassian

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As the Stanley Cup Final is set to commence in two days, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche will retake the ice today to practice ahead of their last four to seven games of the season. Of note from Tampa’s side of things is that injured star center Brayden Point continued to take part in practice today and took line rushes for the first time, centering a line between Nick Paul and Ross Colton, per The Athletic’s Joe Smith. However, assistant coach Jeff Halpern said after practice that “he didn’t know if you could read too much” into Point’s status, noting that it was a light session.

Tampa will be waiting anxiously to get an answer on when Point can return. Given the uncertain health of Nazem Kadri on the other side for Colorado, Tampa Bay having their full center depth available to them would give them a much greater chance at winning their third straight Stanley Cup.

  • With the 2022 NHL Draft now within a month, The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler, one of the top public prospect evaluators, released his 2022 NHL Mock Draft, taking team needs, consensus, and intel into account aside from just his own rankings. Although more and more doubt remains around the status of Kingston Frontenacs center Shane Wright as the Montreal Canadiens’ no. 1 overall pick, Wheeler still has Wright listed in the first spot. Rounding out the top five is winger Juraj Slafkovsky to the New Jersey Devils, center Logan Cooley to the Arizona Coyotes, defenseman Simon Nemec going first off the board among d-men to the Seattle Kraken, and defenseman David Jiricek headed to the Philadelphia Flyers.
  • The first buyout window of the offseason opens July 1, and Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli has Edmonton Oilers winger Zack Kassian at the top of his list of 10 buyout candidates for this summer. Kassian, who carries a cap hit of $3.2MM through 2024, mustered just 19 points in 58 games this season and averaged under nine minutes per game in the playoffs. With the 31-year-old forward only set to continue declining, Edmonton could take the buyout penalty to free up more space to improve their depth scoring. The buyout for Kassian is relatively benign, per CapFriendly, with a cap hit of $666,667 in 2022-23, $1,866,667 in 2023-24, and $966,667 in 2024-25 and 2025-26. It offers $2.5MM in savings upfront in 2022-23, an appealing number for general manager Ken Holland.

Tampa Bay Lightning Acquire Nick Paul

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The Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t done after acquiring Brandon Hagel on Friday. Instead, they are continuing to bolster their forward corps. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report that the Bolts have traded for the Ottawa Senators’ Nick Paul. Going the other way is Tampa forward Mathieu Joseph and a 2024 fourth-round pick, per The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch. The Senators are retaining 44.5% of Paul’s $1.35MM cap hit, approximately $601K. Both teams have confirmed the deal.

Even though the Bolts seemed to be out of options after adding Hagel, they manage to flip Joseph for Paul with a negligible impact on their difficult cap situation. With the salary retention, Paul will only cost about $749K, while Joseph was making $737.5K. It leaves under $5K in LTIR space for Tampa, but space all the same. That retention is likely what cost the Lightning their draft pick, which leaves them with just seven picks in the first four rounds over the next three years.

In many ways it may seem like swapping Joseph, a 25-year-old impending RFA with 18 points, for Paul, a 27-year-old impending UFA with 18 points, seems like a downgrade. However, Joseph is arbitration eligible this offseason and was unlikely to return to Tampa Bay anyway. He also has managed just 18 points with the high-flying Lightning, while Paul has done the same with the lowly Senators. Paul also brings a superior defensive game and more experience. His two-way ability garnered attention from around the league, but the Lightning were the lucky ones to land him and Paul will be equally excited to chase a championship and boost his numbers before hitting the open market.

 

Extension Notes: Severson, Forsberg, Paul

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After seeing the packages that fellow defensemen Ben Chiarot and Hampus Lindholm were traded for, Damon Severson’s name began circulating as a potential trade chip for the New Jersey Devils. When asked about the possibility of Severson being moved, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman put the brakes on the idea, indicating that he believed Severson wanted to stay and was interested in discussing a contract extension (link). Severson is currently in the second-to-last year of a six-year, $25MM contract he signed with the Devils prior to the 2017-18 season, which carries a cap hit just below $4.2MM.

If Severson was to discuss an extension with the Devils, the two sides could not begin those discussions until at least July 1st of this year, and any extension with Severson would not begin until his age 29 season, starting in 2023-24. It’s a fair point to wonder if Severson should be dangled at this year’s trade deadline, as the talented defenseman is not a rental, having an additional year of term at a reasonable cap-hit, is on pace to have a career year, currently sitting on 33 points in 60 games, and the Devils well out of playoff position. Also, comparing the packages the Montreal Canadiens and Anaheim Ducks received for Chiarot and Lindholm, respectively, it’s plausible to think Severson could fetch New Jersey a strong return.

  • Last night on Hockey Night in Canada, Friedman touched on Filip Forsberg’s contract-extension status and potential trade market. He says that the two sides are not close and that talks have not gone well, and that he believes Nashville Predators’ GM David Poile haas tested the market on Forsberg. Despite this, Friedman says he does not believe that Forsberg is going to be traded at the deadline. While nobody knows for certain where the two sides are in their negotiation, the general expectation is that the Predators do not want to go beyond Roman Josi’s $9.059MM cap hit, however Forsberg may believe he can get at least $10MM per year on the open market. Even without an extension in place, it makes sense that Nashville would hold onto Forsberg. With the team in playoff position, Forsberg could act as a sort-of rental for the Predators.
  • Friedman also touched on the Ottawa Senators’ Nick Paul and his extension talks with the team. He believes that while both sides want Paul to remain in Ottawa, they have both dug in in their negotiation. As a result, Paul could be dealt by Monday if an extension is not reached. Although the Senators would prefer to keep Paul, the gritty, well-rounded forward should develop a strong market from contending teams.

Latest On Nick Paul

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March 18: On a live chat with followers today, Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets explained that his understanding is the Senators’ most recent offer to Paul was a four-year, $10MM contract. Paul is reportedly looking for something with an average annual value closer to $3MM.

Additionally, Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that the Senators have made Paul a healthy scratch in advance of their matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers. He also reports that Paul is “expected to be moved” by the Senators shortly, in advance of Monday’s trade deadline.

March 17: The Ottawa Senators aren’t expected to be very active ahead of Monday’s deadline, but one player who could draw plenty of interest if made available is Nick Paul. The versatile forward is a pending free agent that carries a cap hit of just $1.35MM this season and could add some punch to a team’s bottom-six while also being an extension candidate wherever he lands.

Why isn’t he an extension candidate in Ottawa? That’s not entirely clear, as though Paul had been open about wanting to stay with the Senators it does not appear as though much progress has been made on a contract. In fact, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet wrote today that there has been “not much movement” and David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period tweets there is “no progress” between the two sides. Pagnotta now expects Paul to be moved before the deadline.

The 26-year-old forward (27 on Sunday) has 11 goals and 18 points in 59 games this season but has been moved all over the lineup to fill whatever role is necessary. Deployed in heavy defensive minutes on the regular, he’s spent more time at center this season than any year in the past and is averaging more than 17 minutes a night.

This certainly isn’t a player that a contender would want to plug into the top-six, but Paul’s grinding style does suggest that he would do well in a playoff atmosphere. That’s not something he’s experienced to this point in his career even in the minor leagues, meaning a chance at joining a contender might even be something he welcomes at this point.

With Thomas Chabot now out with a broken hand and Jake Sanderson’s debut with the Senators likely delayed, the stretch run in Ottawa is getting grimmer by the day. Already the team has won just five of their last 18 games and could be looking at an even worse period without their top defenseman. If an extension isn’t going to get done, getting a draft pick for Paul seems to be the obvious move for general manager Pierre Dorion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Paul, Hughes, PWHPA

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Nick Paul has a decision to make and is running out of time to do so. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that progress on a new contract for the impending UFA is still lacking and that Paul appears to be the one dragging his feet. Both Paul and the Ottawa Senators have publicly stated interest in an extension, but with just eight days until the NHL Trade Deadline there has been nothing new on that front. A hard-working, two-way forward, Paul has earned the respect of his teammates and coaches as well as the fans in Ottawa. As the Senators look to take a step forward as a club, they do not want to allow homegrown talent to walk away. However, if Paul cannot give them any assurance by the deadline, GM Pierre Dorion and company will have little choice but to make a trade. Paul is drawing considerable interest and the rebuilding Senators would gain valuable capital in a move. They would prefer to keep him, but that decision remains out of their hands so long as Paul cannot make a commitment to a new contract.

  • Another impressive Hughes is heading to Michigan; however, this one has no relation to Quinn or Luke. The Wolverines have received a commitment from record-breaking AJHL scorer T.J. Hughes, as announced by his current team, the Brooks Bandits. At 20 years old, Hughes is an older prospect and college commit, but has earned his spot with an elite program like Michigan this season. Hughes just completed a 66-goal, 127-points season in just 60 games – an incredible 2.12 points per game. It was the most goals in a single season in Brooks history, as well as a top-ten historical mark in the AJHL and the first 60+ goal season in the league since before the turn of the century. As the star-studded Wolverines continue to chase an NCAA title this season, their incoming classes also continue to grow more and more impressive. Meanwhile, the Bandits are a juggernaut in the AJHL as the playoffs begin. The team holds the top seed in the postseason and each of the top four scorers in the league. They will look to make the most of Hughes’ efforts before he departs for Ann Arbor.
  • The Professional Women’s Hockey Players Association is closing in on the formation of a fully-funded league. Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reports that the PWHPA is nearing an announcement of a women’s league that would be the first of its kind in terms of financial backing and sponsor support. The PWHPA represents players that broke off from the PHF (and its previous iterations) and has only been operating as showcases to this point, but a change seems to be on the horizon. Of note, Marek does not believe that this newly-constructed league has any association with the PHF and the two will likely exist separately as competing leagues. Additionally, there is no evidence as of yet to suggest that the NHL is tied in to this new league either.

Atlantic Notes: Paul, Vrana, Sabres

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The Senators and pending UFA forward Nick Paul are not believed to be close on a contract extension, reports Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli.  Ottawa’s last offer was reportedly a three-year deal with a $2MM AAV, a bit of a raise on his current $1.35MM cap hit.  However, with him being on pace for a career year and the market for players that can play down the middle being strong, that isn’t the type of offer that’s going to make it worth not testing free agency.  Seravalli adds that there has been little contact between the two camps in recent weeks.  If they can’t reach an extension, the 26-year-old should be on the move by March 21st.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • While Red Wings winger Jakub Vrana was a full participant in the morning skate today, there remains no timetable for his return, notes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Head coach Jeff Blashill has expressed optimism that the 26-year-old will be able to make his season debut soon as he continues to work his way back from shoulder surgery back in October.  Detroit currently has a full roster and will need to make a move in order to activate Vrana off IR in the coming days.
  • Sabres forward Zemgus Girgensons returned to practice today for the first time in nearly six weeks after re-aggravating a lower-body injury, relays Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald. However, he will miss at least the next two home games for Buffalo next week.  Meanwhile, Hoppe adds that winger Vinnie Hinostroza could return at some point next week from his lower-body injury.  The pending UFA could be of interest as a depth addition so him being able to get back in the lineup before the March 21st trade deadline is of particular importance for Buffalo.

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