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Jason Robertson

Dallas Stars Sign Jason Robertson

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There’s nothing like a little nighttime news breaking. The Dallas Stars have reached an agreement with restricted free agent Jason Robertson, signing the breakout star to a four-year contract that carries an average annual value of $7.75MM. The deal ends a standoff that had kept Robertson out of the majority of training camp but should have him ready to go in time for the start of the regular season next week.

Stars general manager Jim Nill released this statement:

Jason is an integral part of the present and future of our team and we’re thrilled to have him for the next four years. Since he was drafted by our organization, he has worked tirelessly to become a better player every day. His knack for scoring goals and seeing plays develop on the ice are just some of the tremendous assets that he brings to our team. He is one of the best young players in the NHL and we look forward to seeing him continue to progress.

PuckPedia provides the full breakdown of the deal, which is heavily back-loaded:

  • 2022-23: $1.5MM salary + $3.0MM signing bonus
  • 2023-24: $8.0MM salary
  • 2024-25: $9.2MM salary
  • 2025-26: $9.3MM salary

The contract will leave Robertson a restricted free agent in the summer of 2026 but one with arbitration rights. It will also mean he is due a $9.3MM qualifying offer that offseason, something that could walk him directly to UFA status in 2027.

It’s hard to explain quite how impressive Robertson has been since entering the league in 2020. The second-round pick has 125 points in 128 career games and is coming off a season with 41 goals. He sits 30th among players with over 100 appearances during that period in points-per-game, and he has done it while averaging fewer than 18 minutes a night – a number lower than every single player ahead of him on that list.

That kind of offensive production is rewarded no matter how hard a team tries to avoid it, and Robertson has landed an incredibly lucrative deal with this contract. As Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News points out, there are only two active RFA contracts in the NHL that are four years or fewer, with an average annual value of at least $7.75MM: Robertson’s new deal and Patrik Laine’s four-year, $34.8MM deal signed earlier this summer. Laine’s contract of course is buying out mostly UFA years, while Robertson will still be under (some) team control at the expiry of this deal.

The key for Dallas, is that even if Robertson continues his meteoric rise and demands a massive extension in four years, they will have quite a bit of money to work with. Not only is the salary cap expected to rise significantly by then, but Jamie Benn’s $9.5MM cap hit will also be off the books, along with Ryan Suter’s $3.65MM. Even Esa Lindell, Mason Marchment, and Radek Faksa could all be gone, leaving the Stars with plenty of flexibility to build a roster around Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz (who is now eligible for an extension), and Jake Oettinger.

A deal like this cuts into the surplus value that they received from Robertson since his debut but doesn’t limit it entirely. A $7.75MM cap hit is reasonable enough that the team doesn’t need to move out significant pieces to accommodate it, while four years is long enough to really see whether Robertson is a true superstar or just a top-end player. The 23-year-old can now focus entirely on what remains of training camp and getting ready for the regular season in a few days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Novak, Robertson, DeBrincat

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There’s no better news than the kind Minnesota Wild prospect Pavel Novak shared today, announcing that he is now cancer-free. The 20-year-old forward was diagnosed in June and after undergoing treatment, released the following on his Instagram page today:

After a few months of troubles, I’m happy to share with you that I beat the cancer. There is no better feeling than to be healthy again. I would like to say thank you to all the doctors who helped me get over this. You’re my heroes. The biggest thank you to my parents and sister who always supported me and went through treatment with me. It wouldn’t work without you. Also thank you to everyone who was praying for me!

I’m really excited about what the future brings. 

Novak, 20, was the 146th pick of the 2020 draft and dominated with the Kelowna Rockets last season, scoring 29 goals and 72 points in 62 games. It is not clear yet when he will return to competitive hockey but the news is certainly encouraging.

  • While Kevin Weekes of ESPN tweeted this morning to keep an eye on the Dallas Stars, Darren Dreger of TSN suggests that a “major shift” might be needed in order to have Jason Robertson signed in time for the start of the regular season. There is still more than a week before Dallas kicks things off against the Nashville Predators on October 13 but there is no indication at this point that a deal is imminent. Robertson remains unsigned and will have to ink a contract by December 1 to play at all this season.
  • That wasn’t the only contract situation that Weekes tweeted about. The NHL insider also suggested that the Ottawa Senators are “actively working” to try and reach an extension with Alex DeBrincat, after acquiring him this summer. The situation is “fluid” according to Weekes, which suggests nothing is imminent on that front either. It does make sense that the Senators would be trying to sign the two-time 40-goal man but it will take a big number to lock up DeBrincat. The 24-year-old is owed a $9MM qualifying offer for next season, his last before reaching unrestricted free agency in 2024.

Morning Notes: Robertson, Petry, CHL

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Preseason is already well underway and there continues to be no real update in talks between Jason Robertson and the Dallas Stars, according to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic. The insider explains that the only thing coming out of either side is that daily discussions are being held.

Robertson, 23, is one of four remaining restricted free agents that needs a contract for this season, and by far the most important of the group. The young forward scored 41 goals and 79 points in 74 games last season. The Stars kick off their season on October 13 against the Nashville Predators.

  • Jeff Petry has received a $5,000 fine for roughing in last night’s game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings. The Pittsburgh newcomer played more than every Penguin except Kris Letang, including nearly seven minutes on the powerplay. Despite the nine man-advantage opportunities, the Penguins lost 6-2, with Petry taking a frustration penalty when he punched the back of Jonatan Berggren’s head.
  • The CHL is already off and running, with players all heading back from their NHL camps to compete at the junior level once again. To kick things off, Scott Wheeler of The Athletic has released full previews of each league, with prospects to look out for and rookies that will be building their stock. His pick for Rookie of the Year? Michael Misa, the Saginaw Spirit forward who was granted exceptional status. Misa is eligible for the 2025 NHL draft.

Snapshots: Hague, Pastrnak, Jets

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When Vegas Golden Knights training camp opens tomorrow morning, defenseman Nicolas Hague won’t be there as he awaits a new contract. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger reports that he isn’t expected to be on the ice with his teammates Thursday morning at City National Arena, the team’s practice facility.

Hague is one of the few remaining restricted free agents in the NHL, alongside Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Rasmus Sandin and Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson as the marquee names. Granger expertly notes that Hague missing camp is more detrimental than in previous seasons, as new head coach Bruce Cassidy will be installing a completely foreign defensive system from what the Knights have been used to in past seasons. Hague, the 34th overall pick in 2017, had 14 points in 52 games last season.

  • Speaking today during preseason media availability, Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney says it’s a priority for him to get pending free agent winger David Pastrnak signed as soon as possible. Pastrnak, while he’s expressed a strong desire to stay in Boston, hasn’t shared the same urgency in negotiations in previous reporting. Pastrnak, who’s notched 40 or more goals in his last two full seasons, will be in line for a substantial raise, and it may behoove Sweeney to get a deal done before his value rises even further.
  • The Winnipeg Jets have made three scouting hires, including the first woman scout in team history, Sydney Daniels. Daniels joins the team as an NCAA scout, having previously served as the assistant coach for the women’s team at Harvard. The team also brought on Jari Kekalainen, brother of Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen, as a European scout, and former Toronto Maple Leafs scout Tony Martino as a USHL scout.

Evening Notes: O’Reilly, Robertson, Anderson

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After losing Alex Pietrangelo to free agency a couple of offseasons ago, having David Perron and Ville Husso leave the same way this offseason, and observing this summer’s Calgary Flames from afar, the St. Louis Blues made it a priority this offseason to sign young stars Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou long-term. The organization accomplished that feat on Tuesday by signing Kyrou to an eight-year, $65MM contract which will kick in during the 2023-24 season – two months to the day after Thomas signed an identical deal. Although St. Louis has several key UFAs at season’s end, including Ryan O’Reilly an Vladimir Tarasenko, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on today’s 32 Thoughts podcast that the Blues’ priority was to get their two pending RFAs signed long-term.

Despite their clear focus, Friedman believes St. Louis will take a run at re-signing O’Reilly too, seeing term as the likely sticking point for both sides, O’Reilly turning 32 in February. A comparable contract could be Nazem Kadri, as Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek suggests, given his age and style of play, but as Friedman says, “I don’t know if I can see St. Louis doing that” (Kadri signed for seven years and $49MM). Of course, with their two biggest building blocks signed long-term through their prime years, the Blues have put themselves in a good position, however it’s still worth noting the departure of two key pieces from this year’s team (Perron and Husso) and further departures of O’Reilly or Tarasenko, or both, could put a further dent in the team’s plans for it’s current build.

  • Earlier this week, we discussed Jason Robertson’s contract negotiations, which were said to be speeding up with an open dialogue. Friedman also discussed the potential contract on today’s podcast, opining that a possible eight-year, $64MM contract might not be enough to sign the young forward long-term anymore. Friedman cites to the recent extensions of Kyrou and Tim Stutzle, both for eight-years at $65MM and $66.8MM, respectively, as examples of why Robertson could reasonably reject a long-term offer at an AAV of $8MM. Complicating the matter even more is that, right now, Dallas wouldn’t be able to afford an $8MM cap hit on Robertson anyways, having just over $6.3MM in available salary cap space. In that case, the more likely scenario would be a bridge deal for both sides that would carry Robertson to, or at least closer to, UFA status. If Dallas is intent on signing their RFA long-term, one option to clear cap space, which was suggested a few weeks ago by Dallas Stars Senior Staff Writer Mike Heike, would be to trade goaltender Anton Khudobin, who carries a $3.33MM cap hit.
  • A final note from Friedman today, the Los Angeles Kings may have been interested in trying to sign defenseman Mikey Anderson to a long-term contract extension. As he elaborates, Friedman believes the team had talked to him about what it would take to get a long-term deal done, but just didn’t have the ability to fit it in. The Kings and Anderson will be able to sign another extension beginning on January 1st of next year, and though Friedman didn’t say a long-term signing is going to be announced then and there, he does believe Los Angeles was able to get a sense of what that deal might have to look like and can better handle it in the future. Rumors that the Kings could try to sign Anderson long-term are interesting considering the defenseman signed just a one-year, $1MM contract a few days ago, causing some to wonder that if that was the price on a one-year pact, it couldn’t have been all that much more for four or more years. Though that might be the case, the recent signings of Anderson an fellow defenseman Sean Durzi leave the team with just under $500K in cap room, which would be a tight squeeze if Anderson’s number came in just under $1.5MM per season, but on a long-term deal for a promising young defenseman, that number may well have been higher.

Snapshots: Robertson, Wilson, Johnston

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The Dallas Stars have worked out an extension for general manager Jim Nill but still have work to do when it comes to their on-ice talent. Jason Robertson is without a contract less than two weeks before training camp opens, but Nill doesn’t seem worried.

The executive told Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that there is “very open dialogue” between the two sides, and suggested that the deadline of training camp could speed up negotiations. Robertson is coming off a 41-goal sophomore season.

  • Tom Wilson is “believed to be ahead of schedule” in his return from a torn ACL, according to Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic. The Washington Capitals forward was given a six to eight-month recovery timeline when he went under the knife in late May, and it is still unclear when he will be ready to return to the lineup. It’s somewhat positive news on Nicklas Backstrom too, who is expected to at least be on the ice with the team at their photo shoot later this week. Backstrom is coming back from hip surgery in June.
  • The Calgary Flames have hired Team Canada standout Rebecca Johnston in a full-time role, where she will work with the player development team. Johnston, 32, had ten points in seven games at the Olympics earlier this year, taking home her third gold medal (fourth total) at the Games.

Last 10 Restricted Free Agents

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And then there were ten. After Cayden Primeau inked his deal yesterday, there are now ten restricted free agents who have not yet signed contracts for next season. These players must be signed by December 1, or they will not be eligible to play in the NHL at all.

Jason Robertson, the young Dallas Stars forward, leads the way as the most impressive name, though many others represent key players for their respective teams.

The Los Angeles Kings, for instance, have two young defensemen on the list who each showed last season that they could be big parts of the future. Michael Anderson and Sean Durzi were each key in the team’s playoff run, with the former averaging more than 20 minutes a night during the regular season.

Arizona’s Barrett Hayton is a bit of a headscratcher, given how much cap space the team has, but his development has been anything but normal to this point, so it fits the pattern. The 22-year-old forward has played in 94 games at the NHL level and just 35 in the minor leagues since he was selected fifth overall in 2018.

The full list is:

Arizona Coyotes

Barrett Hayton

Calgary Flames

Adam Ruzicka

Dallas Stars

Jason Robertson

Edmonton Oilers

Ryan McLeod

Los Angeles Kings

Michael Anderson
Sean Durzi

New York Islanders

Parker Wotherspoon

Ottawa Senators

Alex Formenton

Toronto Maple Leafs

Rasmus Sandin

Vegas Golden Knights

Nicolas Hague

Several of these players are likely already signed, with teams only waiting to clear additional cap space before officially filing the deals. Others may end up missing part of training camp or even the regular season, as they try to work out the best contract for the present and the future.

Latest On Jason Robertson

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Among the remaining unsigned restricted free agents, a list that includes plenty of talent, there is one name that stands out above the rest. Jason Robertson, the young Dallas Stars phenom, is coming off a 41-goal, 79-point season that had him 13th in Hart Trophy voting in his sophomore season.

One look at the Stars’ Twitter account will show you how anxious fans are for his deal to be completed – even a picture of the right-handed Tyler Seguin sparked excitement, despite Robertson being a lefty.

After signing Jake Oettinger recently, the Stars now sit with about $6.3MM in available cap space, though that number is a bit misleading as it represents a 22-man roster and Anton Khudobin’s entire hit; he or Scott Wedgewood can be put in the minors to open up some extra room.

It sounds like the Stars might be using all of that space to get a deal done with Robertson, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet expects the eventual contract to come in around where Mathew Barzal (3 x $7.0MM) and Elias Pettersson (3 x $7.35MM) ended up on their own bridge deals.

While some may expect a long-term deal, Friedman doesn’t believe that’s what will happen:

I just don’t think they have the ability to do this deal for term. If they couldn’t do Oettinger for term, then they certainly can’t do Robertson for term I don’t think, unless there is another move coming there that I don’t see right now. I wouldn’t expect Robertson right now for term.

Selected 39th overall in 2017, Robertson has been a monster for the Stars through two years, scoring 58 goals and 125 points in 128 career games. His 11 game-winning tallies in 2021-22 led the entire league, and the majority of his production was at even-strength. In fact, with just 14 powerplay assists to this point (compared to 53 at 5v5) there is likely even more offensive potential to unlock in the young forward.

Still, as the Canucks experienced with Pettersson and the Islanders with Barzal, continued point-per-game production is no sure thing in the NHL. Whether because of injury or inconsistency, even young players can be risky bets when you are discussing long-term big-money deals. Bridge contracts offer a team the ability to re-evaluate in a few years, while making sure they have the financial flexibility to stay competitive once the next contract kicks in.

A three-year term would like up Robertson with some expiring deals in Dallas, including captain Jamie Benn’s $9.5MM AAV, Esa Lindell’s $5.8MM, and Ryan Suter’s $3.65MM. At that point, when he and Oettinger need long-term extensions, there will be a few more dollars available.

That’s not to say a long-term deal at this point is impossible, even if Friedman doesn’t believe it will happen. One relatively small trade could open up the room to go bigger and longer for Robertson, if the Stars decide that they are willing to go down that route. Either way, they’ll want their young star in training camp, which is now just a few weeks away.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Classifying The Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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When the calendar flips to September, it’s time to start paying some attention to who’s left unsigned in restricted free agency.  Usually at this point, two months have elapsed since the start of free agency (it’s six weeks this summer) which is typically more than enough time to get a deal done.

There are currently 13 remaining RFAs that haven’t signed elsewhere for next season.  As is usually the case, those players can be grouped into a few tiers which are as follows.

Star Players

Jason Robertson (Dallas)

Generally speaking, there are usually more players in this group at this time but the 23-year-old is the only star player in need of a new deal.  He’s coming off a 41-goal campaign that has the asking price justifiably high – team owner Tom Gaglardi acknowledged it’s in the $7MM range.  The Stars would likely prefer to do a long-term deal that buys out some UFA years but that could push the AAV past $9MM and they don’t have the cap space to do that.  At this point, what GM Jim Nill does or doesn’t do on the trade front might dictate what ultimately happens with Robertson; if they can free up some money, a long-term agreement becomes palatable but otherwise, it’ll almost certainly be a bridge contract.

Underachieving Former First Rounders

Erik Brannstrom (Ottawa), Kirby Dach (Montreal), Barrett Hayton (Arizona), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto)

Dach and Hayton were both top-five picks in their respective draft classes but have yet to show the type of offensive consistency to put them in the category of core players.  Dach was traded to Montreal at the draft after a quiet season that saw him put up nine goals and 26 points, both career-highs.  Despite that, it appears that the Canadiens are at least pondering a medium-term agreement that would run for four years but still leave him RFA-eligible at the end.  Something a little shorter in the $2.5MM range is also an option.  Hayton has just this last season in terms of being a regular under his belt and could fit in a different category than this but his performance relative to draft stock has been concerning.  He’s a prime candidate for a bridge contract and with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, he simply doesn’t have the leverage to command anything longer.  A two-year deal around the $2MM range should be where his deal falls.

As for Brannstrom, he was billed as an offensive defender but has yet to be able to produce with any consistency since joining Ottawa back in 2019.  He has just two career goals in 116 career games but that hasn’t stopped his camp from seeking a multi-year agreement in negotiations which are likely playing a role in this delay.  Sandin could also fit in a different category but the 2018 first-rounder has exhausted his waiver exemption and doesn’t appear to be a fit in their top six next season.  His agent recently bemoaned the lack of progress in negotiations.  Teammate Timothy Liljegren’s two-year bridge deal that has a $1.4MM AAV seems like a reasonable comparable but with playing time being a potential concern, might Sandin be looking for more certainty before putting pen to paper on a new deal?

Young Regulars

Michael Anderson (Los Angeles), Alex Formenton (Ottawa), Nicolas Hague (Vegas)

Formenton played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and it was a good one as the 22-year-old speedster chipped in with 18 goals and 14 assists in 78 games.  The Sens have ample cap space this coming season so there are some options beyond the bridge contract.  If GM Pierre Dorion thinks that Formenton is part of their long-term core, a longer-term pact that buys out a UFA year or two in the $3.5MM range might be a better way for them to go.

Hague has done well in a limited role on the back end for the Golden Knights over the past two seasons and is coming off a year where he logged close to 19 minutes a night.  They’ve already spent most of the LTIR ‘savings’ so Vegas isn’t in a spot to give him a long-term deal.  But is Hague better off taking a one-year contract that would be below market value to acquire arbitration eligibility next summer?  Such a deal would be in the $1.25MM range with the promise of a better payout later on.  Otherwise, a bridge pact that’s closer to $2MM is probably in the cards.  Anderson has logged over 20 minutes a night for the Kings for the last two years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to support a pricey bridge deal.  Los Angeles’ cap space is quite limited so, like Hague, a one-year deal in the $1.25MM range might be where they wind up settling.

Not Fully Established

Sean Durzi (Los Angeles), Ryan McLeod (Edmonton)

McLeod figures to be a part of the long-term plans for the Oilers after a promising rookie campaign but doesn’t have much leverage at this point.  Edmonton’s issue here is cap space as they’re already in a spot where they need to clear money out.  If they can move someone out, a multi-year bridge contract becomes their preferred route but otherwise, he’s a strong candidate for a one-year deal around that $1.25MM threshold as well, perhaps a tad below that.

Durzi quietly put up 27 points in 64 games last season but it’s his only taste of NHL action so the track record isn’t strong enough to command a sizable contract.  A two-year bridge deal makes a lot of sense for him as a repeat performance over that stretch would have him well-positioned to seek $4MM or more two summers from now.  However, with the cap situation for the Kings, they might be forced to push for the one-year, ‘prove it’ contract that would fall in the same range as Anderson.

What’s The Holdup?

Cayden Primeau (Montreal), Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), Parker Wotherspoon (NY Islanders)

Ruzicka played in 28 games last season for the Flames and did reasonably well with ten points but it’s not as if he’s in a position to command a sizable raise.  He’s waiver-eligible but not a guarantee to be claimed if he passes through.  The holdup might be along the lines of making next season a one-way or two-way contract with any subsequent season(s) being a one-way agreement.  Even so, it’s odd this is taking so long.

Wotherspoon’s presence on here is arguably the most perplexing of the bunch.  He opted to not file for salary arbitration which would have gotten him signed weeks ago.  He has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons and has yet to play an NHL game.  Haggling over NHL money would be pointless as a result so accordingly, it’s safe to suggest his NHL pay would be $750K.  At this point, AHL salary or guaranteed money is the only sticking point.  In all likelihood, the gap probably can’t be more than around $25K which is a pretty small one to justify being unsigned this long.

Primeau is coming off a strong showing in the AHL playoffs but struggled mightily in limited NHL action with the Canadiens last season.  Even so, he’s viewed as their potential backup of the future as soon as 2023-24 when he becomes waiver-eligible.  This is a contract that should be a two-way pact next season and then one-way after that as a result and there are enough of those comparable contracts around the league for young goalies that the general framework should basically have been in place before talks even started.  As a result, this is another case that feels like it should have been resolved weeks ago.

There’s still plenty of time to work something out with training camps still a couple of weeks away and several of these players should come off the board by then but there will likely be a handful still unsigned when camps get underway.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Robertson, Blackhawks, Kayumov

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There has been a greater emphasis on paying young stars big money early in recent years and it would appear that at least one team owner isn’t a fan of that.  Speaking on the Cam and Strick Podcast (audio link) earlier this week, Stars owner Tom Gaglardi lamented the current contract landscape across the league:

A kid in the third year of his entry-level (deal) puts up 40 goals and now he wants to make $7 million. If you want term with that player, he’s going to take you higher than that. … The stars are taking all the money, and the guys in the middle are getting squeezed.

I think there’s a lot of players in the league making a million dollars who are better players, and then the guys who can put the puck in the net are getting too big a piece of the pie. … I don’t like it, but that’s the market, and that’s the way it works.

While not naming him specifically, it’s quite clear that the 40-goal player he’s referencing is Jason Robertson who led the Stars with 41 goals in 74 games last season.  If the asking price on a short-term deal is in the $7MM range as Gaglardi suggests, Dallas will almost certainly have to do a bridge deal to get the 23-year-old under contract without having to part with another player.  They have a little over $6.3MM in projected room at the moment, per CapFriendly, but that could jump closer to $7.5MM if Anton Khudobin is healthy and is sent to the minors.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • There is some uncertainty on the injury front for the Blackhawks with training camps just a few weeks away. GM Kyle Davidson told Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times that they are still waiting for a firm update on the status of forward Jujhar Khaira who underwent back surgery back in February.  At the time, he was supposed to be away from hockey activities for 10-12 weeks so the fact that his availability is still in question would suggest that there has been a setback.  The 28-year-old had three goals in 27 games in his first season with the Blackhawks.  Davidson also indicated that there are a couple of other players that they’re waiting for information on regarding their availability for the start of camp but didn’t identify who those players will be.
  • Still with Chicago, the Blackhawks were hoping to sign prospect Artur Kayumov this summer, reports Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription link). However, the 24-year-old winger opted to remain with Yaroslavl of the KHL citing family reasons as he signed a one-year deal to stay there instead.  Kayumov had 19 points in 42 games last season and his agent indicated that there’s a chance he could sign with the Blackhawks following the KHL campaign.

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