Headlines

Go To MLB Trade Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Brian Dumoulin

Penguins Shifting Focus On Defense

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Just last week, the Pittsburgh Penguins were in the enviable position of having enough depth on defense to be a seller, despite their position as a clear-cut buyer in terms of contending for a third straight Stanley Cup title. However, the Penguins know too well from their experiences over the past few years just how quickly that feeling of comfort on the blue line can change with injury. In placing Justin Schultz on injured reserve this morning, with the expectation being that he will be out “weeks” at the very least, Pittsburgh’s opinion on their blue line has changed in an instant.

Ian Cole was the man on the block last week, with many teams having immediate interest in obtaining the services on the solid stay-at-home defender. An impending free agent who has been devalued in Pittsburgh following the signing of a similar player in Matt Hunwick and the re-emergence of Olli Maatta this season, Cole had become expendable for the Penguins. However, as beat writer Jason Mackey indicates, any talk of moving Cole is completely off the table for now with Schultz out of the lineup.

In fact, the health of Schultz going forward could turn the Pens from sellers to buyers on the blue line. Frank Corrado, who was called up to take Schultz’s spot on the roster, has not worked out so far. If that continues, Pittsburgh will at least need to add another depth option. Chad Ruhwedel, while remarkably reliable for Pittsburgh over the past year plus, is best suited for that #7 depth option role. Hunwick and Cole, while both experienced, successful defenders, are very similar and similarly one-dimensional. Beyond a healthy grouping of (the also injury-prone) Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, and Maatta, there are serious questions without Schultz to round out the top four. If “weeks” turn to “months” for Schultz to return to action, GM Jim Rutherford could end up on the opposite side of the defensive trade market.

Metropolitan Notes: Sprong, Cizikas, Hakstol, Stephenson

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Having already scored nine goals in his first 18 games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, many wonder why Pittsburgh Penguins prospect Daniel Sprong still remains in the AHL when he could be helping out the Penguins at the NHL level.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette writes calling up Sprong is not in the plans for Pittsburgh’s general manager Jim Rutherford. The GM says that the team has historically not called up players before they thought they were ready, instead opting to allow them to develop. Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel, Brian Dumoulin, Conor Sheary and Tom Kuhnhackl are the recent examples of players who were not rushed to the NHL.

“The important thing is, when you put a young player into this league, is he is as prepared as he can be for all aspects of the game,” Rutherford said. “If he’s not, you risk setting the player way back. That group of five, those guys were ready before they got called up, but we made sure it was at a time where they had their confidence and they could deal with setbacks.”

The team believes that Sprong still has work to do on his play without the puck, according to Rutherford. The team wants to see Sprong improve his defense as well as work on his stick/wall play. Of course, with a four-game winning streak and improved play of late, there may not be much need for him anyway.

  • The New York Islanders announced earlier today they have placed Casey Cizikas on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, retroactive to Nov. 25, which means he could be activated at any time. Cizikas was injured in a game against the Ottawa Senators. The fourth-line and penalty killing center has four goals and four assists in 23 games for the Islanders. So far, the team hasn’t made any corresponding moves.
  • Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi tweeted that Philadelphia Flyers general manager Ron Hextall is accompanying the team on their Western Canada trip, which could play an instrumental role on the status of head coach Dave Hakstol. The Flyers have lost 10 straight games. Carchidi adds that if a coaching change is made, a likely choice to take over would be Lehigh Valley Phantoms coach Scott Gordon in the interim.
  • Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washigton Post tweets that after suffering an injury in Saturday’s game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Washington Capitals wing Chandler Stephenson is day-to-day. However, the team recalled Travis Boyd this afternoon from the Hershey Bears of the AHL, which suggests that Stephenson might miss some time. Stephenson, a bottom-line center, has two goals and six points in 18 games this season. Boyd has never played in the NHL before. He has three goals and 17 assists in 23 games for the Bears.

The Best Fits For Matt Duchene

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.

If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.

Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list  of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.

Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.

The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.

The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.

Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.

Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.

Money To Move Out In Potential Pittsburgh Trade

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Often lost in the narrative chronicling the Penguins’ need for a third-line center is the fact that money will almost certainly head the other direction in any trade. Currently, Pittsburgh is a respectable $3.82 MM under the cap ceiling, but a few factors should be considered. Firstly, GM Jim Rutherford will almost surely allot at least $1 MM in space to acquire necessary rentals at the trade deadline. Second, his defensive and center depth is rather weak overall, so any move would likely not be the last before a post-season pursuit. Third, and perhaps most important, multiple contracts on the horizon will force uncomfortable decisions on wing and top-four defense.

With Matt Cullen departing for Minnesota, the Penguins’ third best center is Carter Rowney, just one season removed from AHL plug duty. Zach Aston-Reese could fill in temporarily, but it’s not ideal for his first professional season. The teams needs an upper-echelon third center option, and available options are supremely limited league-wide. Rutherford claimed to have half a dozen options in July, but with the summer expiring the options are far fewer. Although Rutherford is playing his cards close to his chest, it’s nearly inconceivable that the Penguins go into the new year without greater certainty at that position. A move needs to be made.

On defense, the team will need to determine the future of multiple players. It’s a fair assumption that the team will bank on the improved health of Norris-capable Kris Letang, for better or worse. Justin Schultz is also safe, as is the dependable Brian Dumoulin. In that fourth position, will the Pens re-sign impending UFA Ian Cole, or will his shot-blocking mentality start to show its toll? Is Olli Maatta worth $4.083 MM on a cash strapped team? Will Derrick Pouliot finally clean up his turnovers and make an impact in the Steel City and make either expendable? If Maatta’s skating doesn’t substantially improve, it’s a safe bet his contract will be the one off-loaded in any transaction, regardless of potential and upside.

On offense, the team will also need to make painful judgments. Patric Hornqvist is entering his final year of his contract, and at 31 years old, how will his body hold up multiple seasons into a new contract? Would Bryan Rust be able to replace his intangibles and hard-nosed offense at a fraction of the cost? His internal value is incredibly high, but he’s been relegated to a third-line role for the foreseeable future. Additionally, how devoted is Pittsburgh to the Phil Kessel model? It seems incredibly far-fetched that the team might consider moving Kessel, and they would undoubtedly receive a lesser player in any trade. Still, his $6.8 MM is a strain on the overall forward structure. With Jake Guentzel looking to land a substantial raise in two seasons, Kessel may not be entirely untouchable. Finally, could an accessory piece be moved off the roster as a throw-in for a potential elite third-line center? Impending RFA Scott Wilson isn’t the most glamorous of names, but he could easily earn decent money on his next contract and provide depth scoring for a re-building team. Carl Hagelin’s $4 MM was well above his current rate of production, and his blistering speed could be a tempting add for any squad.

In the final evaluation, Pittsburgh will almost certainly part with a roster player if they are to land a significant piece at the 3rd-line center position. Maatta seems most likely, and has for some time, but the selling teams will have a definite upper-hand in all negotiations, and the money complicates matters. The team has shown time and again it is willing to part with high-end draft picks, but any impending deal will necessarily be more intricate, considering the dearth of the organization’s prospect pool and other contributing factors.

Pittsburgh’s Alternative Third-Line Center Options

at CDT | by 5 Comments

While many teams across the NHL still have holes to fill before the puck drops on the 2017-18 season, no vacancy has received more attention than the third-line center slot for the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins. In fact, we’ve already written about it once before. However, the scenario has changed over the last few weeks, as the new contracts for RFAs Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary have left the Pens with just over $3MM in salary cap space. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette recently spoke with GM Jim Rutherford, who essentially stated that he does not plan to move out significant salary in a deal to acquire a new bottom-six center. What that means is that the Penguins are left with a much smaller margin to work with to acquire Nick Bonino’s replacement.

So who will it be? Who it won’t be is easier to say. The pipe dreams of Colorado’s Matt Duchene or Carolina’s Jordan Staal are now all but over, as are more reasonable targets like Toronto’s Tyler Bozak or Dallas’ Radek Faksa now seem out of reach as well. The Vegas Golden Knights have not shown any indication that they are interested in moving forwards, so strike their group of suitable centers off the list as well. With each passing day, it seems a Matt Cullen return grows less and less likely as well.

What the Penguins are left with are a group of guys who fit their needs well: young, two-way centers on affordable contracts. The most common name bandied about is Detroit Red Wings forward Riley Sheahan. Sheahan struggled mightily in 2016-17 and is relatively expensive compared to some other available names at $2.075MM this season. However, Detroit desperately needs to shed salary and may have reached the end of the line with Sheahan. It could be a good match, with Sheahan very likely bouncing back on a far more talented Penguins team. Pittsburgh’s top target may be Arizona’s Jordan Martinook, who just resigned with the team, but is part of a Coyotes forward corps that is crowded with young talent. Martinook is an underrated two-way player and would fit in nicely with the Pens, but Arizona may not be keen to move him in a deal that Rutherford stated would not included salary players. The Coyotes have had their fill of picks and prospects and might be on the lookout for only veteran contributors at this point. The Penguins could turn to the Los Angeles Kings, who have great depth at center including Nick Shore and Nic Dowd. Both would fit the need nicely in Pittsburgh and come in at under $1MM. The 25-year-old Shore would be especially nice, as the team can retain RFA rights over him beyond 2017-18, but Dowd may be easier to acquire from a Kings squad that is not any closer to returning to the playoffs. One final option, staying out west, could be San Jose Sharks center Chris Tierney. It is rumored that the two sides are on rocky grounds, with Tierney signing just a one-year extension this summer, and could be looking for a trade. Tierney has proven to be a solid defensive force in the San Jose bottom six and could play the same role in Pittsburgh. The Sharks have done nothing this off-season and could see replacing Tierney with a Penguins forward prospect as at least some kind of roster shakeup.

Obviously, the available names are not of the sexy variety. The Penguins have been spoiled with center depth through their Stanley Cup years and fans are surely hoping they can find another Staal or Bonino. However, with little cap space to play with and a reluctance to change the current roster any further, this is what Rutherford is left with. Any of these guys could be a valuable piece on another strong Penguins team, as each plays a solid two-way game, but none are gonna be the big-name acquisition that many expected. Pittsburgh will be back in the Cup race again next year even if they do nothing at all and stick someone from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at third-line center, so maybe the better question is not who will play there, but why does everyone care so much?

Evening Notes: Hurricanes’ Ownership, Oduya, Dumoulin

at CDT | by 4 Comments

For anyone trying to pay attention the Hurricanes’ ownership struggles, another chapter has been added to the ongoing saga. The team, currently owned by a group headed by Peter Karmanos, Jr., has been rumored to be up for sale for some time. The financial situation of the team is difficult, as attendance issues over the past few years have brought monetary losses and concern from other owners around the league. Still, it seems that Carolina is nowhere near the dire situation of the Arizona Coyotes, whose decade-plus-long fiasco has bewildered onlookers and hockey fans for quite some time.

Not long ago, a potential buyer for the Hurricanes, one Chuck Greenberg, supposedly offered $500 MM to acquire the franchise. This was reported by Scott Soshnick of Bloomberg and The Denver Post, and confirmed by others. Afterwards, the Karmanos group responded by saying the reports were essentially misleading, and then were called “fake news” in an article published by Forbes. Technically, it was a non-binding letter of intent and not an official offer, but that shouldn’t discount the strong possibility of an impending team sale.

Today we learned that Greenberg showed up at the team’s practice facility, thanks to some wonderful reporting by The News & Observer’s Chip Alexander. Greenberg stopped by the Raleigh Center Ice location, and essentially conducted a “fact-finding trip”. The whole situation is confusing largely because the franchise’s estimated value has plummeted and the offer is exceptionally fair. Additionally, the Karmanos group has been looking to sell the Canes for years to a team that will keep them local. This was reported yet again this January by NBC’s Adam Gretz, and it’s no secret there is desire from the fanbase for a change in direction. Greenberg seems to be a perfect solution to the situation, as he has local investors involved and stated no plans for relocation. As of now, there seems to be a lot going on behind the scenes, and many moving parts. Still, a change in ownership seems more likely today than it did yesterday.

  • After today’s earlier announcement of the Brian Dumoulin 6-year, $4.1 MM AAV signing, it has been revealed that the Penguins’ shutdown force played with a broken hand. The Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey reported that Dumoulin kept re-breaking the fracture before it could heal, during the course of normal play. He broke it after blocking a slapshot in the fifth game of the first round against Columbus, The dependable stay-at-home defender played incredibly well, often matching up against top opponents and maintaining solid body position boxing out attackers in front of his goaltenders. He even tallied two goals throughout the Stanley Cup run, so the nature of the injury does come as a little surprising. He and the Penguins medical staff considered the possibility of Dumoulin undergoing surgery this off-season to repair the damage, but it no longer seems necessary. Dumoulin believes the injury has healed well enough on its own and that he should be ready for action come season opener.
  • Johnny Oduya shocked many by signing a deal so soon for $1 MM and bonuses, as Ottawa had apparently been courting him since “July 2nd”. As I reported yesterday, interest for the player never really openly surfaced among the insiders of the league. Oduya comes at great value for the Senators, and GM Pierre Dorion expressed his glee at a press conference you can find partially transcribed by Craig Megdalia here. Essentially, Dorion felt the move was absolutely necessary considering the loss of veteran Marc Methot to expansion (before being shipped to Dallas), and although he has confidence in his younger players, he couldn’t miss the opportunity to bring in “a true pro”. By the sound of it, Dorion expects coach Guy Boucher to likely place Oduya in a prominent role, which could push out a younger player such as Thomas Chabot.

Pittsburgh Penguins Sign Brian Dumoulin To Six-Year Contract

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Even though Pittsburgh Penguins GM Jim Rutherford had be clear he expected to go to arbitration with Brian Dumoulin, the two sides have agreed to a six-year contract instead. The deal will pay Dumolin $4.1MM per season for a total of $24.6MM and keep him in Pittsburgh through the 2022-23 season. Dumoulin was set to have a hearing today, but like many other players before him has inked a deal in the final moments. Brian Dumoulin

Just 25, Dumoulin has slowly developed into a huge part of the Pittsburgh defense, cracking the 20 minutes/game mark for the first time this season. That 20:33 mark put him second on the team among those who played the majority of the season (Ron Hainsey’s 16-game stint in the second half ranked slightly above) only behind Kris Letang. In 70 games, Dumoulin registered 15 points and was a rock for the club in the playoffs once again. With back-to-back Stanley Cup victories, the young defenseman has proven his worth on the biggest stage.

Amazingly for those two seasons Dumoulin was earning just $800K each year, his second deal after a relatively fruitless entry-level contract. Selected in the second round, he first went off to Boston College to star in the NCAA before needing several years of minor league seasoning with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. For a defensive stalwart who can skate against the other team’s top players, refining his positioning and zone exits were the biggest hurdle. Dumoulin turned himself from a risk-taking offensive threat to more of a stay at home presence, a nice compliment to some of the Penguins other puck movers. With a 6’4″ frame that he can move up and down the ice at an impressive pace, he can be useful in all situations and should only be given more responsibility in the mold of a Marc-Eduoard Vlasic going forward.

Interestingly, the $4.1MM salary comes in just below what Dumoulin was asking ($4.35MM) through arbitration for just a one-year deal. The Penguins had countered with a curiously low $1.95MM figure, one that he obviously will surpass next year by giving away four UFA seasons. He comes in just ahead of Olli Maatta among Penguins’ defensemen, and completes what should be an effective group again this season. The team now has $6.3MM remaining in cap space, though Conor Sheary remains unsigned and heading to an arbitration hearing on August 4th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Which Of The RFAs Slotted For Arbitration Will Earn The Most?

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Arbitration can be a useful tool for players in a number of ways. It accelerates the contract negotiation process and puts it on a definitive timetable. It puts the player in a position where they can (theoretically) promote their own cause and posture for a greater paycheck. And in some cases, the threat of a mere one-to-two year ruling scares the team in question into handing out more term than they may otherwise have been comfortable.

With Tomas Tatar earning $5.3 MM AAV, Viktor Arvidsson earning $4.25 MM, and Colton Parayko raking in $5.5 MM all in the last few days, many players are earning longer deals with impressive cap hits before reaching their scheduled date. Only 14 names remain slotted for arbitration, but there are still a few names out there who are seeking a raise. Those players are Austin Watson, Brian Dumoulin, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Spooner, Robin Lehner, Matt Nieto, Connor Hellebuyck, Reid Boucher, Calvin de Haan, Nate Schmidt, Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, Conor Sheary, and Nathan Beaulieu.

Keep in mind that most of the remaining names will likely come to an agreement prior to their dates, which could affect the prices. That said, who do you think ends up seeing the highest AAV on their next contract? Take our poll below!

(Mobile users, click here to vote.)

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

at CDT | by 1 Comment

With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

Arbitration Notes: Dumoulin, Watson, Arvidsson

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Penguins GM Jim Rutherford has already stated that he expected to go to arbitration with restricted free agent defenseman Brian Dumoulin.  Based on their arbitration filings, it’s reasonable to understand why.  According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link), Pittsburgh has submitted a one-year proposal at $1.95MM while Dumoulin’s camp came in at $4.35MM.

Dumoulin has seen his role increase steadily over the past two seasons and has become a reliable stay-at-home player for the Penguins.  In 2016-17, he played in 70 games, scoring once and added 14 assists while logging a career best 20:33 per game.

While the fact that he has become a reliable top four defender will help his case, what will work against Dumoulin in the arbitration hearing is his lack of offensive production and a fairly small track record overall as he only has two full NHL seasons under his belt.  The traditional offensive statistics that often play a role in the hearings aren’t particularly strong and judging by the $2.4MM gap in the filings, it’s clear that the Penguins are banking on the lack of production being a factor.

If the two sides aren’t able to reach a deal, the arbitration hearing will take place on Monday.

Other arbitration notes:

  • Dumoulin wasn’t the only player whose submissions were due today as the Predators and winger Austin Watson also made their filings. The gap here is considerably less with Watson asking for $1.4MM with Nashville coming in at half of that amount, also per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link).  Watson set career bests across the board in 2016-17 with 77 games played along with five goals and 12 assists.  He also had a strong postseason run with four goals and five helpers in 22 playoff contests, something that his camp will likely be arguing as a sign that he is capable of being more of a point producer next season.
  • Today is the scheduled hearing between the Predators and winger Viktor Arvidsson. It appears that not enough traction has been made towards bridging the sizable gap between the two filings as of yet.  Arvidsson, who tied for the team lead in scoring, filed for a one year, $4.5MM deal while Nashville asked for a two year deal with an AAV of $2.75MM.

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

scroll to top