Trade Candidate: Thomas Vanek
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
New coach, new expectations, but in the end, the Vancouver Canucks don’t look that much different. Vancouver finds themselves in seventh place in the Pacific Division, once again not competing for a playoff spot. The Canucks had higher expectations this year when they decided to add some veteran depth to the team in hopes it might spark their young core to play at a higher level. The team does have hope as they have a large amount of talented young prospects that aren’t too far away from joining the team over the next few years, but they must answer the question if they want to move out veteran scorer Thomas Vanek.
Contract
Vanek is currently finishing up the one-year contract he signed this offseason with Vancouver at $2MM. He will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.
2017-18
At age 34, many teams believed that Vanek’s game may have passed him by and many of those teams chose to look elsewhere this offseason. He wasn’t signed until Sept. 1 by Vancouver, but he continues to prove that he can score in this league. He currently has 16 goals in 56 games and has impressed management to the point that they are considering re-signing him to an extension.
While Vanek has been fortunate enough to play on a line with rookie sensation Brock Boeser, the veteran has shown he can still score clutch goals and set up his teammates as well. He is quite versatile and is capable of playing anywhere in the lineup if needed. His lack of speed, however, doesn’t help him.
Season Stats
55 GP, 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points, -15 rating, 24 PIM, 102 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 44.7 CF%
Potential Suitors
Vanek could have a number of suitors, because of the fact that he won’t be very costly. The Detroit Red Wings, who traded away Vanek at the trade deadline a year ago, only received an average prospect and a third-round pick from the Florida Panthers. So, many teams that are short on salary cap space and picks may find Vanek to be an interesting option, ranging from the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Nashville Predators.
One possibility could be the Boston Bruins, who are desperate for depth on the wings. Vanek might be a good fit to join the Bruins second or even third line and provide even more offense during a playoff run. His penalty killing skills might also be helpful for Boston as well.
Likelihood Of A Trade
It’s more of a 50-50 proposition. The team could easily find a take for Vanek, but will the Canucks get true value for him? Perhaps if the team can get a second-rounder for Vanek, then it might be worth it, but at the same time, there are rumors that Daniel Sedin and his brother Henrik Sedin are considering returning for another year next season. The question then is, should they keep Vanek around for another year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Blues, Thornton, Lewis, Lightning
In a mailbag column, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford writes (subscription required) that while the Blues have been linked with a number of high-profile teams such as the Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers, it’s unlikely the team will make a big move for a big name forward with years on his contract like a Max Pacioretty or a Mike Hoffman despite recent rumors to the contrary.
Due to the high trade demands being made for these players, Rutherford believes that trading a top prospect for a player who has a large contract to fit into their salary cap space doesn’t make a lot of sense as the team wants to have as much flexibility when free agency arrives this summer. Instead, the scribe believes the team needs to go the rental route and acquire a player (for a much cheaper price) so the team can make their run.
The team already is without their 2018 first-round pick which they traded for Brayden Schenn, so moving a top prospect could set the team back long-term. The team should look into a player such as Rick Nash, Michael Grabner or Patrick Maroon as options as they likely won’t cost them one of their top prospects in Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas or Klim Kostin.
- The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that alarms should sound after San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton refused to say that he will definitely be back this season. That’s a surprise considering he is a player who last year played through torn MCL and ACL injuries during the playoffs. Historically, he’s been a player who goes out on the ice no matter how hurt he is, so the idea that he might not be back this season suggests the injury is worse than people think. Could he have already played his last game as a San Jose Shark?
- Fox Sports West Patrick O’Neal tweets that Los Angeles Kings forward Trevor Lewis was sent back to Los Angeles to be re-evaluated after being injured in Friday’s game against the Florida Panthers. While indications are that the injury isn’t serious, head coach John Stevens wanted to have him evaluated after he sustained a serious crash against the boards.
- Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that the rumors of a potential Ottawa Senators-Tampa Bay Lightning deadline deal refuses to go away. He writes that there have been a number of rumors, including talk of Erik Karlsson, and points out that Ottawa’s chief scout is expected to be at the Tampa Bay game tonight.
Trade Candidate: Michael Grabner
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The New York Rangers are selling. In not so many words, Glen Sather and Jeff Gorton reached out to their fans and told them that they were going to blow up the core of the team, selling off familiar faces and beloved teammates. Not only might that include franchise leaders like Ryan McDonagh, but expiring assets like Rick Nash and Michael Grabner. While the former may be getting more headlines, Grabner is not one to be overlooked.
Contract
Grabner is in the final season of a two-year, $3.3MM contract—$1.65MM cap hit, $1.65MM salary. He will be a UFA in July, and holds zero trade protection.
2017-18
In September of 2015, Grabner was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for five minor league players, who have combined for a total of 11 NHL games since. Several of them are no longer playing hockey in North America. It was a dump of his $5MM salary, after three consecutive injury-filled seasons for the New York Islanders. For Toronto, nothing went right for Grabner as he scored just nine goals and 18 points in 80 games.
But then, the Rangers came calling and everything changed. Suddenly, Grabner exploded for 27 goals last season, all of them at either even-strength or short-handed. His speed and ability to counter-punch with devastating efficiency was a big part of the Rangers offense. This year has been much of the same.
Amazingly, despite getting essentially zero powerplay time all season Grabner already has 21 goals. That total easily leads the Rangers, and puts him among the elite players in the game in terms of goal production given his limited minutes. His 20 even-strength markers tie him for sixth in the league behind names like Nikita Kucherov, Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews, William Karlsson and Sean Couturier. He’s on pace for the second 30-goal season of his career, but only has five assists all year.
Season Stats
53 GP, 21 goals, 5 assists, 26 points, -8 rating, 12 PIM, 116 shots, 14:40 ATOI, 44.1 CF%
Potential Suitors
There are basically no teams in the league who have their eye on the playoffs and couldn’t use a player like Grabner. His ability to penalty kill and versatility to play with scoring or checking units means he can fit in anywhere. He comes with an extremely reasonable cap hit at $1.65MM and got some good playoff experience last season with the Rangers (where he scored four goals in 12 games, again tying for the team lead).
The question will be who wants to pay the most for a player who isn’t as dynamic offensively as other rental wingers like Nash, or Evander Kane. Though he can certainly put the puck in the net, creating offense for his linemates has never been Grabner’s game.
One interesting destination could be Los Angeles, who have been desperate for scoring since Jeff Carter‘s injury and could use another injection of speed into the lineup. Another is Tampa Bay, who have room for another winger and could really use some help on the penalty kill. The Lightning lost arguably their best defensive forward in Ondrej Palat for a few more weeks, and could easily slide Grabner into their salary structure.
Likelihood Of A Trade
A trade is all but certain for Grabner, as one of the expiring assets the Rangers will use to kick their rebuild into gear. If someone is going to offer a first-round pick, as some have suggested, he’d likely be on his way out in the next few days. Otherwise, the Rangers might be wise to hold onto him until some of the other shoes have dropped and teams feel like their rivals are getting the better of them.
The eventual return may be far less, depending on where the market sets the price for rentals, but it’s clear that Grabner will have value around the league. If there is a team who feels that he can make a big difference on their team in those key situations, there just could be a small bidding war for his services.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
New York Rangers Front Office Issues Letter To Fans Detailing Future
The New York Rangers front office has taken an unprecedented step by releasing a letter from Glen Sather and Jeff Gorton directly to fans, seemingly admitting that they will be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline. The letter explains that though the team has been competitive for more than a decade, it is time now to move in a different direction. Most telling may be the admission that “familiar faces” will likely be lost:
As we approach the trade deadline later this month and into the summer, we will be focused on adding young, competitive players that combine speed, skill and character. This may mean we lose some familiar faces, guys we all care about and respect. While this is a part of the game, it’s never easy. Our promise to you is that our plans will be guided by our singular commitment: ensuring we are building the foundation for our next Stanley Cup contender.
The Rangers already made an unexpected move today when they waived Brendan Smith less than a year after re-signing him to a four-year deal, and have been rumored to be listening on core players like Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello all season. Still, for a team to come out and admit publicly that they are going to clean house while they sit just three points out of a playoff spot is unheard of in the NHL.
Now, all eyes will quickly turn to the roster players who have a good shot at being traded in the next few weeks. McDonagh and Zuccarello are two, but unrestricted free agents Rick Nash, Michael Graber, Nick Holden and David Desharnais all could be moved as well. Beyond that, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Jimmy Vesey and Brady Skjei are all restricted free agents this summer and no one seems untouchable at this moment.
Snapshots: Devils, Koekkoek, Jerabek
The New Jersey Devils have been a better story than anyone expected this season, jumping from the first-overall pick in June 2017 to third place in the Metropolitan Division as we sit here today. That unexpected success though often comes with hard decisions come the trade deadline, a situation Devils GM Ray Shero is familiar with.
When speaking with Mike Morreale of NHL.com, Shero was clear that he would not deviate from the long-term plan he had for the Devils before the season. He believes that his team will avoid the rental market at their current costs, but will stay open to “hockey deals” over the next few weeks. Shero of course already added Sami Vatanen in a surprising move earlier this season, trading away long time Devils forward Adam Henrique.
- Slater Koekkoek was afforded a rare opportunity to log some higher minute totals while Victor Hedman was out for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and GM Steve Yzerman believes he showed well in his limited exposure. Yzerman told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet as much, who, in his latest 31 Thoughts column, suggested that the Ottawa Senators were among teams showing interest in the young defenseman. Koekkoek was selected 10th-overall in 2012 but has never been able to establish himself as a full-time NHL player. Scheduled to become a restricted free agent in the summer, perhaps the Lightning will look to give him another opportunity elsewhere.
- Speaking of opportunity, that’s all Jakub Jerabek wanted when he signed a contract with the Montreal Canadiens last offseason. Jerabek, 26, left the KHL after one excellent season in order to come to North America, and has acquitted himself well in his debut with Montreal and the Laval Rocket of the AHL. Eric Engels of Sportsnet reports that Jerabek very much enjoys playing in Montreal, and though no contract negotiations have taken place just yet, the player would welcome them at some point. Because of his advanced age, Jerabek was forced to sign just a one-year deal with the Canadiens, and will be an unrestricted free agent in July.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Plekanec, Talbot
Evgeni Malkin took home the top honors among the NHL’s Three Stars of the Week, after scoring six goals and eight points in just three games. Malkin is turning it on at the right time for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who now find themselves in a Metropolitan playoff spot for the time being.
Amazingly, goaltender Harri Sateri garnered the second star of the week after stopping 88 of 93 shots in his three starts. For the Florida Panthers, who’ve dealt with injuries to Roberto Luongo and James Reimer all season, Sateri’s emergence has been a welcome sight. Not so is the third star, Reilly Smith, who the Panthers sent to the Vegas Golden Knights in the offseason only to see him come into his own offensively. Smith had five points in four games last week and needs just ten more to match his career-high of 51. The 26-year old is a whopping +25 on the season, trailing only teammate William Karlsson (+28) and Boston Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara (+27) for the league lead.
- In Montreal, Tomas Plekanec remains one of the interesting players to watch for the Canadiens as he heads towards unrestricted free agency at the end of the year. In a frustrated column for Sportsnet, Eric Engels writes that Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin should be shown the door if he doesn’t trade Plekanec for something at the upcoming deadline. Engels doesn’t totally disagree with the idea of bringing Plekanec back next season, but posits that the team absolutely has to get an asset out of his expiring deal this year. Vegas, Tampa Bay, Columbus, and San Jose are all examined as potential landing spots for the 35-year old center, who has seen his offensive production fall off a cliff in recent years. Plekanec has also been linked to the Pittsburgh Penguins as an ideal fit for their third line.
- One veteran center with a more certain future than Plekanec is 11-year NHL veteran Max Talbot, who is now playing overseas with the KHL’s Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. Talbot isn’t making an NHL comeback, but he isn’t retiring either. Talbot has earned a one-year extension from Lokomotiv, the KHL announced today. Talbot has served as an alternate captain for Yaroslavl for two years now and had the best offensive season of his career – NHL or otherwise – last season and has shown no sign of slowing down. While the reliable two-way forward won’t be suiting up for Team Canada at the Olympics, he remains one of the best North American skaters not playing in the NHL and Lokomotiv was wise to retain the services of their experienced import.
Canadiens Hope To Re-Sign Jakub Jerabek Instead Of Trading Him
- Although Canadiens defenseman Jakub Jerabek is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in July, Montreal is hoping to re-sign him instead of moving him by the trade deadline, reports Arpon Basu of The Athletic (subscription required). The 26-year-old started the season at the minor league level but has since worked himself into a mostly regular role with the Canadiens. In 25 games this season, he has a goal and three assists while averaging 17:21 per game so a new deal shouldn’t cost considerably more than the $925K he’s earning on his entry-level deal this season.
Snapshots: Tavares, Schmaltz, Hall
As we close out January, we’re still waiting for the rush of trade deadline moves to start. It’s been awfully quite on the market for some time, and as Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes, that might be because of John Tavares. It’s not so much that Tavares is available in trade, but that if he is really going to hit the open market in July, teams want to make sure they have enough cap space to take a run at him.
Custance mentions the San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues and Montreal Canadiens as potential players in free agency for Tavares, though those are all speculative at this point. All three could turn into big factors at the trade deadline—in different ways—and could be delaying their decisions as long as possible. For now, we’ll just have to hold tight and wait for the first real foot to drop in the rental market.
- Speaking of the St. Louis Blues, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet included a note about Jordan Schmaltz in his latest 31 Thoughts column, writing that the AHL All-Star is basically blocked from making an impact at the NHL level. That’s because of the Blues’ impressive depth on the right side, and it could lead to him being a trade chip in the next few weeks. Again, that’s just speculation, but Schmaltz certainly would hold substantial value. A first-round pick of the Blues in 2012, Schmaltz has found nothing but success in the collegiate and minor pro ranks, but has received just 13 games of NHL experience to this point. He’s also heading into restricted free agency this summer as he finishes his entry-level contract, and holds arbitration rights.
- Taylor Hall has been fined $5,000 for his hit on Kyle Okposo last night, avoiding suspension. Hall hit Okposo into the boards from behind, resulting in a minor penalty and will have this incident added to his record with the Department of Player Safety. While Okposo suffered no apparent injury on the play and was back at Sabres’ practice today, it easily could have resulted in more serious damage. Now, only Hall’s wallet will feel that pain.
Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point
It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:
Atlantic Division
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
- Boston Bruins – 115 points
- Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
- Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
- Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
- Florida Panthers – 77 points
- Ottawa Senators – 68 points
- Buffalo Sabres – 62 points
Metropolitan Division
- Washington Capitals – 105 points
- New Jersey Devils – 96 points
- Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
- Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
- New York Islanders – 90 points
- New York Rangers – 90 points
- Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points
Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus
Central Division
- Nashville Predators – 113 points
- Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
- St. Louis Blues – 101 points
- Dallas Stars – 98 points
- Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
- Minnesota Wild – 95 points
- Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points
Pacific Division
- Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
- San Jose Sharks – 101 points
- Calgary Flames – 97 points
- Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
- Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
- Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
- Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
- Arizona Coyotes – 54 points
Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary
The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.