The Canadiens are tied at one game apiece in their first-round series against the Lightning. They have a number of healthy scratches at forward thanks to their depth, but one young player is looking to leave an impression and avoid sitting out for any length of time.
Zachary Bolduc is a talented forward and pending restricted free agent who is sure to get a raise this summer as his entry-level contract wraps up. How much he gets will depend on several factors, primarily the term he and the Canadiens agree to, as well as where Montreal sees him in the foreseeable future.
When you read that statement, the first thought is: where does Bolduc slot into Montreal’s lineup? There is also the possibility that Montreal uses Bolduc and other assets to try to land a premier second-line center.
Alternatively, Bolduc remains with Montreal into next year and signs a new deal. But does that come in the form of a short-term bridge deal, or have the Canadiens seen enough to ink him long term?
It’s no secret that Montreal wants to address the second-line center position to ease some of the pressure on first-line pivot Nick Suzuki. This season, the Habs relied heavily on Oliver Kapanen, who filled in admirably but has at times been exposed, prompting Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis to shelter him.
Kapanen has also benefited from a PDO well over 100, which has masked some of his shortcomings and made it more tolerable to keep him in the top six. Another season with that kind of luck seems unlikely, so Montreal needs to act this summer, especially with Michael Hage returning to the NCAA for another year. Montreal doesn’t exactly have an internal solution to fill the 2C slot at the moment.
Could Bolduc be part of a package to acquire a center? It depends on which player the Canadiens target. If they covet Robert Thomas of the Blues, St. Louis would surely love to reacquire him after he tallied 19 goals and 36 points for them as a rookie in 2024-25 before being dealt to Montreal last summer. If the Habs are looking elsewhere for a Nico Hischier-type player, Bolduc could be part of a package that includes other prospects and one or two draft picks.
What if the Canadiens see Bolduc as a potential top-six fixture? It would be easy to see why, given his offensive abilities and physical presence.
Bolduc has an excellent shot and is a natural goal-scorer who gets into the forecheck and can be difficult to play against. However, as good as he can be, there are questions about consistency and on-ice results.
The 23-year-old had 12 goals and 18 assists in 78 games this year, but much of his scoring came in bunches. There were several five-game (or longer) stretches throughout the year when Bolduc produced no offense, and his physicality was inconsistent as well.
A perfect example is a stretch from Dec. 24 to March 25, during which Bolduc produced exactly zero goals and just nine assists in 31 games. On March 26, he ended his goalless drought at 31 games with a goal and an assist against the Blue Jackets, but then proceeded to be held pointless for another seven games before a two-point game against the Islanders on April 12. It’s that sort of inconsistency and wild variation in production that will give the Canadiens pause about a long-term deal for Bolduc, making a bridge contract far likelier.
What might that look like? Based on AFP Analytics’ projections, something in the range of $3.588MM per year on a two-year deal would make sense.
That wouldn’t be a problem for Montreal, given where they are compared to the salary cap. A short-term deal would give the Canadiens more time to assess what they have in Bolduc and determine whether he’s part of the future or a piece they can leverage to fill other gaps on their roster.
But how does the bridge contract AAV compare to a long-term contract, and would it make more sense to lock Bolduc in for the next seven or eight years before he breaks out and becomes much more expensive? If there’s a team that knows what it’s like to get burned by signing a player, it’s the Canadiens, who once had to pay top dollar to extend P.K. Subban after a contentious bridge contract.
However, in this case, Bolduc is not Subban and doesn’t appear destined to become an award-winning forward. The AAV projection for Bolduc on a long-term contract is also eye-popping to say the least, coming in a shade under $6MM on a six-year deal.
The number on a long-term deal is likely a non-starter for the Canadiens until they see more from the Trois-Rivières, Quebec, native. It’s possible he goes on a tear in the postseason and convinces Montreal to go long term, but at this stage, the inconsistency, offensive droughts, and his inability to drive play are significant question marks that will likely prompt the Habs to opt for a bridge deal to get a longer look before committing to an extended term. That is, if he sticks with the Canadiens beyond this season.
The question should be, Why is Jake Evans in the top five in ice time among Montreal forwards? He brings nothing but pedestrian 4th liner play, Night, After night, Finding a spot for Bolduc is easy.
Evans-Danault handle the bulk of the faceoffs
Suzuki struggles vs top line Centers , does fine vs 2nd line Centers
Heck he can get anywhere from 50%-70% win rate vs middle 6 Centers.
But top line high end Centers have his number, have for years.
Kapanen Struggles vs top 6 but middle 6 with support from Newhook he handled really well with a hot 17 games start for Newhook,Kapanen and Demidov until Newhook went down. Beside Bolduc Kapanen-Demidov struggled Until Slafkovsky joined them. That unfortunately weakened the top line and cost us games so after about 30 games when playoff positioning was on the line Slaf was moved to 1st and Kapanen to 3rd C
Issue becomes The only Centers capable of taking on top line Centers cant do so solo. Danaults good but he’s old ,slow and has draw backs. Evans and Anderson negate said drawbacks. Evans-Danault help address the fact that Suzuki’s only taken 2 faceoffs vs TBL top line Center Brayden Point this series.
Dealing with matchups is hard when Suzuki’s biggest weakness is his inability to win faceoffs vs top 20 Centers in the NHL and even top 30 faceoff Centers overall.
Its not the end of the world , it happens and in time he’ll perfect that weakness to like he does everything else. But having Evans-Danault there to handle 38 of 61 faceoffs between them last game despite being on 4th line
Why else is Evans minutes so high?
He leads PK 1 and MTL has like 39 PIM
Danault is solid on 2nd PK but its Newhook-Evans and then Anderson-Danault on our PK units. Given the high amount of PK’s this explains why he’s able to have so many minutes getting 3-5 minutes a night on PK
Great post, but it will be lost on Grapes/Wilf.
I actually decided to track face-off importance this season, Unscientific of course, As it turns out, Face-off wins is about as important as home ice advantage, No real distinct difference between the winning team, And losing team, Whether it’s face-off wins, Or, Home ice advantage. Clearly though, Montreal needs a solid number two center.
Habs should package Bolduc with reinbacher and grab Trocheck . Would be a fair trade for both teams and players.
Trochek does not want to play in Montreal.
@rdiddy75 – Trocheck is the perfect example of a player that uses an NTC or NMC to his full advantage. Gotta love a guy who won’t cave to management.
Only if you’re trying to set back our RD 3 years
Reinbachers packed on 20lbs of muscle since playing and training with Engstrom managing to stay not only healthy but carry his team. When Engstrom was called up for 5 weeks in December/January The Rocket was down 3/4 top 4 D with 2 out on Injury.
Reinbacher didnt only carry the team with 3rd pair Trudeau and Clurman he improved Laval’s position to 4th in the AHL. Why? He’s Fowlers Shutdown D and Anchor. Carey Price had Josh Gorges and Chariot. In between he had his worst season leading to the Athletic writing “the league finally solved Carey Price?” . We acquired Jordie Benn who helped but it wasnt until Chariot joined he returned to form.
Gorges and Chariot got tons of Love from Carey Price and basically no one else but guys like that are important especially when they got such strong Chemistry with your Franchise Goalie.
We could afford to move Guhle more then Reinbacher and i wouldnt move either. We may need a top 6 Center but Giroux will be that guy mark my words. He just helped turn OTT from a Joke at faceoffs to top 5 in the NHL since he joined them. He switched to Wing helping Stutzle jump to 1C full time with big improvements seen from Cozens and Pinto as well.
He’s close to retiring , isnt needed in OTT anymore and is unlikely to want to move so playing in MTL where they need a 2C to help Newhook or Kapanens jump to 2C full time or combine to become a middle 6 duo who can play a 2A/2B scenario
Giroux is the cheapest and most logical target namely becuase he doesnt want a long term and even at his age was top 3 in NHL faceoff win rate with 800 draws playing from Wing.Plus Nick Suzuki has 1 weakness and its faceoffs vs 1st line Centers. Giroux made his career dominating those types of players and has valuable insight Suzuki could use.
Giroux at 2 year at 5.5m is my guess with a full NMC
He gets the chance to come in and win a cup as the Kirk Muller type leader who becomes a playoff hero for our 25th cup cementing his legacy
Only Stan Bowman would do that.