What Will The Canadiens Do With Zachary Bolduc?

The Canadiens are tied at one game apiece in their first-round series against the Lightning. They have a number of healthy scratches at forward thanks to their depth, but one young player is looking to leave an impression and avoid sitting out for any length of time.

Zachary Bolduc is a talented forward and pending restricted free agent who is sure to get a raise this summer as his entry-level contract wraps up. How much he gets will depend on several factors, primarily the term he and the Canadiens agree to, as well as where Montreal sees him in the foreseeable future.

When you read that statement, the first thought is: where does Bolduc slot into Montreal’s lineup? There is also the possibility that Montreal uses Bolduc and other assets to try to land a premier second-line center.

Alternatively, Bolduc remains with Montreal into next year and signs a new deal. But does that come in the form of a short-term bridge deal, or have the Canadiens seen enough to ink him long term?

It’s no secret that Montreal wants to address the second-line center position to ease some of the pressure on first-line pivot Nick Suzuki. This season, the Habs relied heavily on Oliver Kapanen, who filled in admirably but has at times been exposed, prompting Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis to shelter him.

Kapanen has also benefited from a PDO well over 100, which has masked some of his shortcomings and made it more tolerable to keep him in the top six. Another season with that kind of luck seems unlikely, so Montreal needs to act this summer, especially with Michael Hage returning to the NCAA for another year. Montreal doesn’t exactly have an internal solution to fill the 2C slot at the moment.

Could Bolduc be part of a package to acquire a center? It depends on which player the Canadiens target. If they covet Robert Thomas of the Blues, St. Louis would surely love to reacquire him after he tallied 19 goals and 36 points for them as a rookie in 2024-25 before being dealt to Montreal last summer. If the Habs are looking elsewhere for a Nico Hischier-type player, Bolduc could be part of a package that includes other prospects and one or two draft picks.

What if the Canadiens see Bolduc as a potential top-six fixture? It would be easy to see why, given his offensive abilities and physical presence.

Bolduc has an excellent shot and is a natural goal-scorer who gets into the forecheck and can be difficult to play against. However, as good as he can be, there are questions about consistency and on-ice results.

The 23-year-old had 12 goals and 18 assists in 78 games this year, but much of his scoring came in bunches. There were several five-game (or longer) stretches throughout the year when Bolduc produced no offense, and his physicality was inconsistent as well.

A perfect example is a stretch from Dec. 24 to March 25, during which Bolduc produced exactly zero goals and just nine assists in 31 games. On March 26, he ended his goalless drought at 31 games with a goal and an assist against the Blue Jackets, but then proceeded to be held pointless for another seven games before a two-point game against the Islanders on April 12. It’s that sort of inconsistency and wild variation in production that will give the Canadiens pause about a long-term deal for Bolduc, making a bridge contract far likelier.

What might that look like? Based on AFP Analytics’ projections, something in the range of $3.588MM per year on a two-year deal would make sense.

That wouldn’t be a problem for Montreal, given where they are compared to the salary cap. A short-term deal would give the Canadiens more time to assess what they have in Bolduc and determine whether he’s part of the future or a piece they can leverage to fill other gaps on their roster.

But how does the bridge contract AAV compare to a long-term contract, and would it make more sense to lock Bolduc in for the next seven or eight years before he breaks out and becomes much more expensive? If there’s a team that knows what it’s like to get burned by signing a player, it’s the Canadiens, who once had to pay top dollar to extend P.K. Subban after a contentious bridge contract.

However, in this case, Bolduc is not Subban and doesn’t appear destined to become an award-winning forward. The AAV projection for Bolduc on a long-term contract is also eye-popping to say the least, coming in a shade under $6MM on a six-year deal.

The number on a long-term deal is likely a non-starter for the Canadiens until they see more from the Trois-Rivières, Quebec, native. It’s possible he goes on a tear in the postseason and convinces Montreal to go long term, but at this stage, the inconsistency, offensive droughts, and his inability to drive play are significant question marks that will likely prompt the Habs to opt for a bridge deal to get a longer look before committing to an extended term. That is, if he sticks with the Canadiens beyond this season.