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PHR Originals: 7/3/17 – 7/9/17

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Here’s a look back at some of the original content from PHR last week.

  • Holger writes about how the Rangers may want to figure out how to pay Ryan McDonagh as he’s only a couple years away from free agency. Currently playing for the Rangers at a bargain, McDonagh may be off to another spot should the Blueshirts not have the cap room to pay him.
  • What else could a back-to-back champion need in order to three-peat? Brian offers the Penguins scouts the Pens as to what they should be looking for to keep their dynasty running into a third consecutive season.
  • Zach wonders if the San Jose Sharks need to make another move to bolster a roster now missing mainstay Patrick Marleau.
  • Seth profiled Jaromir Jagr to see what a team would be getting with the 45-year-old who still appears to have a little bit left in the tank.
  • Mike showed how many players are still being compensated by their former team who paid them to go away.
  • In addition to hosting his weekly chat, Gavin asked our readers which available free agent was the best choice for teams seeking help.
  • Finally, I looked to see  if both the qualitative and quantitative data really show that the Chicago Blackhawks’ window is closing. Though some of the numbers are harsh, I think that things are not as grim as many want to believe.

Will The San Jose Sharks Make A Move?

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It’s hard to make an argument for any other team in the NHL as having a less exciting start to the 2017 off-season than the San Jose Sharks. Yes, the Sharks are just a year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance and have re-signed Norris Trophy-winner Brent Burns as well as Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton, and Martin Jones since then. You can get excited about new deals for Ryan Carpenter and Tim Heed last month too if you like. Yet, other than re-signing their own players, what have the Sharks added to their 2017-18 squad?

We know what they’ve lost. Patrick Marleau, a career-Shark and the franchise leader in goals (power play, short-handed, and even strength), points, and games played, is now a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. David Schlemko, a 2016 free agency addition, was selected by the Vegas Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft and then flipped to the Montreal Canadiens. Micheal Haley (Florida Panthers) and Buddy Robinson (Winnipeg Jets) are also gone.

The only additions for San Jose thus far, as they look to plug the holes formed by lost free agents as well as improve upon their 2016-17 performance: left wing Brandon Bollig and goaltender Antoine Bibeau. Bollig, 30, is a physical, fourth-line caliber forward, but doesn’t produce enough on a consistent basis to be a regular player. Bollig hit his career-high in points in 2013-14 with the Chicago Blackhawks when he scored 14 points in 82 games. Soon after, he was traded to the Calgary Flames, where he scored just nine points in 116 games over two seasons before being buried in the AHL for the entirety of the 2016-17 season. The big winger posted 11 goals and 11 assists in 60 games for the AHL’s Stockton Heat, but still brings little to the the table for the Sharks other than grit and experience. As for Bibeau, the 23-year-old keeper was not tendered a qualifying offer by the Toronto Maple Leafs after a disappointing season. Bibeau had an .894 save percentage and 3.08 GAA in 32 regular season appearances for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies and performed even worse in his one playoff game. Bibeau had clearly fallen behind Garret Sparks and Kasimir Kaskisuo to fifth in the Leafs’ organizational depth chart, and so he was not retained. In San Jose, Bibeau will be no greater than fourth behind Jones, Aaron Dell, and Troy Grosenick and may never get another NHL start.

Bollig and Bibeau, two players destined for the AHL, are not exactly an inspiring pair, which begs the question: will the Sharks make another move? The team is far from perfect and could use some help. Jones and Dell proved to be a solid duo last season and the blue line is as deep as any in the NHL, but San Jose is not without needs up front. The Sharks ranked just 19th in scoring last season, and also boasted on of the worst power play’s in the NHL, below average face-off numbers, and poor possession stats. Burns (a defenseman) was the team’s leading scorer last year and tied for the team lead in goals, while the since-departed Marleau was fifth in scoring and third in goals. The rest of the top five scorers –  Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, and Joe Thornton – will return, but the 38-year-old Thornton is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, an injury that occurred after he scored all *seven* of his goals. Beyond those three forwards, the production dropped way off in 2016-17 to the likes of disappointments such as Mikkel Boedker and Joel Ward and young, developing players like Chris Tierney and Tomas Hertl. The Sharks have a clear need for secondary scoring, especially with Marleau gone, and could use a power play catalyst as well. Brandon Bollig is not going to cut it and a full season of Jannik Hansen, acquired at the Trade Deadline, likely won’t either.

Top options for the Sharks include Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Jiri Hudler, while taking a waiver on a veteran like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, P.A. Parenteau, or Mike Ribeiro or on a younger player like Alex Chiasson or Brandon Pirri could work as well. Given the Sharks’ scoring needs, their sufficient cap space, and the complete dullness of their off-season to this point, perhaps maybe two of those players could find their way to San Jose. If not, the Sharks do have pieces to make a move to acquire a scorer, potentially a Matt Duchene or Evander Kane, if they so choose. One way or another, GM Doug Wilson needs to do something, and quick, or not only will he have a team that has surely gotten worse since the end of the season, but he will have a disappointed fan base on his hands as well.

Free Agent Profile: Thomas Vanek

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We are a week into free agency and a top ten member of the class is still available. Thomas Vanek, ranked eighth among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, still remains unsigned to the surprise of many. Vanek was a free agent last summer as well, after having the final season of a three-year $19.5MM contract with the Minnesota Wild bought out. While there were questions about his game then as well, and an apparent lack of interest that led to a one-year, $2.6MM deal with the Red Wings (a 60% drop in value from his $6.5MM AAV with the Wild), there was still sufficient enough demand that Detroit felt they had to lock him up right away on July 1st. This year? Not so much.

The strange thing about Vanek’s 2017 scenario is that he is coming off a strong, redeeming campaign. Rather than last summer, when he was fresh off the worst season of his career and a buyout, Vanek instead entered the free agent market this year with a 38-point season under his belt, seven more points in six less games than 2015-16. Vanek played extremely well in Detroit, posting 15 goals and 23 assists in 48 games, creating plenty of buzz around his trade deadline status. Although rumors swirled that Vanek would like to re-sign with the Red Wings, the team nevertheless got what they could for him, sending Vanek to the Florida Panthers for Dylan McIlrath and a third-round draft pick. In Florida, Vanek added two goals and eight assists in 20 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs and Vanek was out of time to show off for teams in need of scoring this summer.

Apparently, he needed to do more in 2016-17. With 697 points in 885 NHL games, Vanek’s history as an elite scorer is well established. A two-time 40-goal scorer and power play wizard, who has twice in his career topped a point-per-game pace for a whole season, there is little doubt about Vanek’s track record of creating offense. However, there are questions as to just how fast that offensive ability is slowing down. Vanek is certainly no longer a threat for 40 or even 30 goals, nor does he sit atop the league in man-up production any more. While he seemingly proved in Detroit that he can still deliver 40 or 50 points, he also looked slower up and down the ice and lacked the same quickness and creativity in the offensive zone that he used to have. The lack of interest could also be due to a noticeable drop-off in defensive ability. Vanek was never a Selke candidate, but he has always played a sound two-way game. As he has slowed down the past two years, his defensive stats have dropped off and he often looked solely focused with keeping up on offense, rather than playing a complete game. Endurance, and all that it entails in the back-and-forth game of hockey, simply seems to be an issue for Vanek and is unlikely to improve.

Nonetheless, 48 points is 48 points and there is a reason why Vanek was ranked #8 out of all free agents. The shooting ability and offensive instincts are still there for the 33-year-old, and 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr is still making that skill set work in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time before Vanek signs somewhere, but just like last summer, it appears as if it could be another bargain for a player whose age and pace of play seemed to be blown out of proportion while his experience and offensive contribution are under-rated.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Vanek would return to the Florida Panthers, who were in need of scoring help, especially with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith now in Las Vegas. However, Dale Tallon and the Panthers went in a different direction, bringing back Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL and inking a different veteran scorer, Radim Vrbata. Like Vrbata and Jagr, Vanek seems best-suited for one-year or short-term deals the rest of the way, especially if he’s struggling to establish his value. Who could use a short-term scorer? A return to Detroit could make sense. The fit worked out great and there were talks of an extension prior to the deadline trade, so the two sides might see if Lightning can strike twice. The Red Wings lack much cap space and should be rebuilding, but GM Ken Holland might have missed that memo. Another possibility could be the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are still a contender out West, just one year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance, but have had a very quiet off-season and just lost a high-scoring veteran winger in Patrick Marleau. This year’s Western Conference Cup qualifier, the Nashville Predators, traded away a key forward in Colin Wilson and have more than enough cap space to squeeze Vanek in if they so choose. The Boston Bruins could use another scoring threat in the top nine and they might not mind having Vanek, notorious for his strong play against Boston during his years with the Sabres and Canadiens, on their side for once. Finally, don’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, who certainly don’t need to get slower, but who surely need more scoring with few dependable options left on the market.

Expected Contract

We predicted that Vanek would sign a one-year, $3MM deal this off-season, a logical next step after a bounce back season on a one-year, $2.6MM contract. That range still seems reasonable, unless the market really is as quiet as it seems and no one is willing to pony up that kind of money. The affordable contracts signed by aging scorers like Kris Versteeg (#26) and Ales Hemsky (#44) combined with the availability of Jagr (#13), Drew Stafford (#21), and Jiri Hudler (#40), doesn’t help Vanek’s cause. He’s not ready to retire and he won’t move overseas, but don’t be surprised if Vanek remains unsigned, holding out for market value, before finally signing for less than he did last summer.

San Jose Sharks Sign Brandon Bollig

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The San Jose Sharks have signed Brandon Bollig to a one-year two-way deal worth $650K. Bollig is coming off the final season of a three-year $3.75MM deal, but was buried in the minor leagues by the Calgary Flames for the entirety of 2016-17.

Bollig, 30, is a former Stanley Cup champion with the Chicago Blackhawks, but was moved to the Flames for a draft pick in 2014. Sharks GM Doug Wilson released a statement on the winger:

Bollig is a competitive player who will add a tough edge to the Sharks. He brings with him a lot of playoff experience and a Stanley Cup Championship. His grit and physicality will be a great addition to our team.

It will be interesting to see if Bollig makes the Sharks on a full-time basis, as he’s barely been NHL worthy during his time in Calgary. While adding some solid defensive responsibility and a toughness to the fourth line, he offers virtually zero offensive ability. With the Sharks losing some firepower on the wing from Patrick Marleau’s departure, it will be interesting to see how the Sharks deploy their left side next season.

San Jose Sharks Hire Rob Zettler As Assistant Coach

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  • Rob Zettler has been named the replacement for Bob Boughner as assistant coach of the San Jose Sharks. Zettler had most recently been the head coach of the Syracuse Crunch, though was fired after missing the playoffs in 2015-16. He previously worked in the NHL with the Sharks and Toronto Maple Leafs, two teams he also suited up for in his long playing career. In 569 career games, the defenseman registered 70 points in 920 penalty minutes, only making it to the playoffs for a handful of games. He’ll look to get back there with a San Jose team primed to make another Cup run next year, despite losing Patrick Marleau this summer.

Joe Thornton Re-Signs With San Jose Sharks

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July 2: The Sharks have officially announced the signing.  His agency, Top Shelf Hockey, reports via Twitter that Thornton will earn $8MM in 2017-18.  TSN’s Pierre LeBrun adds (Twitter link) that the base salary is $6.75MM while he gets a $1.25MM signing bonus as well.

July 1: After all of the rumor and intrigue surrounding “Jumbo” Joe Thornton seeking a three-year deal and speaking with many teams other than the San Jose Sharks, NBC Sports’ California correspondent Kevin Kurz is reporting that Thornton has actually re-signed in San Jose for just one year. According to Bob McKenzie, the deal is worth more than $6 MM, and Fox Sports Northwest’s Andy Strickland has the exact total at $6.5 MM. This is nowhere near the paycut many experts expected from his previous $6.75 MM. In a weak UFA class, however, he ended up getting more AAV than many of the larger names out there.

The probable future Hall-of-Fame center has 1007 career assists, good for 13th all time. He only had 7 goals last season make up his 50 points in 2016-17, however, his lowest total in a full season. It was anticipated by many that perhaps fellow long-time shark Patrick Marleau would sign first, but the offer from San Jose and the allure of home was too much to keep Thornton from signing on the dotted line.

Thornton is obviously slowing down a step, but he is still one of the best playmakers in the game. His work on the powerplay is masterful and he has jump-started many younger players’ careers. On a one-year deal, there seems to be little downside to the Sharks, as he can still be a productive member of a top-9 offensive unit while providing solid defensive play. The price is a bit high, and it remains to be seen whether that will affect any potential negotiations with Marleau.

Toronto Signs Patrick Marleau To 3-Year Deal

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have announced that they have signed unrestricted free agent Patrick Marleau to a three-year deal, $18.75MM with the average annual value set for $6.25MM. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston tweets he has a full no-movement clause included in his deal. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that the deal will include a large signing bonus, just as the case was for Carey Price’s deal earlier today. He will receive $14.5MM in signing bonus money, split up with $7MM coming to him in the first year, followed by $4.5MM in year two and $3MM in the final year of the contract. The three-year pact means that Marleau will be 40 during the last year of his $6.25 contract.

Reported earlier on PHR, the 37-year-old wing was considering several offers, including a two-year offer from San Jose, but the rumor was that Toronto had the most impressive offer and Marleau took it. Having spent the past 19 years in San Jose, he will move on to the young, rising Maple Leafs squad and team with the young core of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner to help them take the next step. With this move, it seems obvious that the Maple Leafs plan to go all-out in hopes of capturing a Stanley Cup while they have their young core under rookie contracts. It is likely Marleau will be paired with both Matthews and Nylander as their first line.

For San Jose, the veteran team loses one of its most important players in their history. Marleau accumulated 508 goals and 1,082 points in his tenure with the Sharks and was rarely hurt, having played every game for the last eight seasons and only missing a total of 31 games in his career, according to Johnston. Although the team was able to lock up38-year-old Joe Thornton yesterday to a one-year, $6.5MM deal (although that deal is not official yet), the team lost out on one of their top goal scorers and will be hard-pressed to replace him, especially after the team struggled in the playoffs and were bounced in the first round. Those two have been playing together for the last 12 years.

 

Marleau Deciding Between San Jose, Toronto

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Patrick Marleau’s name has appeared everywhere as one of the top free agents that remain after the first day of free agency. The 37-year-old wing, who will turn 38 before the season gets underway, has played 19 years in San Jose and hasn’t slowed down one bit. His 27 goals are his best since the 2013-14 season and the veteran has always been consistent and healthy. So, what’s taking so long?

NBC Sports’ Kevin Kurz says that while the Sharks offered him a two-year deal on Friday, Marleau is considering other offers, despite the fact that linemate and friend Joe Thornton has already agreed to a one-year deal with the Sharks. It seems that Marleau has received multiple offers that trump San Jose’s offer and Kurz writes that the Toronto Maple Leafs offer is quite a bit better. While it would have to be a tough decision to leave a place after 19 years, it might make sense. Even with Thornton returning, the Sharks failed to get out of the first round last year, suffering a loss to a young and emerging Edmonton team, and the Sharks seem to be developing into a franchise that may have to reverse course soon and begin a youth movement. Heading to Toronto and an up-and-coming team (along with the better offer) might be a better way to go. Playing with the young core of players like Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner could be enticing to the veteran. According to Kurz, no one has any idea of what Marleau will decide and there is genuine concern among Sharks’ management that he may leave.

On another note, while Thornton has agreed to a one-year deal that TSN’s Bob McKenzie writes will be a $6.5MM deal, it still hasn’t become official. Kurz said that there is nothing to worry about. He believes that Thornton is waiting for Marleau to make his decision so they can be announced together, like he did in 2014. Thornton agreed to a one year deal, although Kurz says he was offered a two-year deal, like Marleau, on Friday. It’s likely that the one-year deal offered more.

Best Of What’s Left

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As we close in on the end of an only moderately crazy July 1st, there are quite a few names that remain from our Top-50 Free Agents list. Here are the best of what remains, and an update on each:

 

Alexander Radulov (#2) – Radulov is apparently playing two serious suitors off one another – Montreal and Dallas. Nothing has substantially changed since that was reported by Pierre Lebrun at mid-day. Perhaps a deal is sorted out tomorrow, but the main issue seems to be term. Radulov had a solid season in Quebec, but perhaps his Nashville baggage is scaring the GMs away from a long-term commitment. Many might cite the Russian factor here as the holdup, but the bigger deal is that Radulov only has one successful NHL season under his belt this decade. 54 points is impressive, but it’s a small sample size.

Patrick Marleau (#6) – The longer this trails on, the more likely it would seem that Marleau is headed away from Northern California for the first time in his career. We at PHR generally believed he would remain, but other teams are pushing hard for his services. Darren Dreger reported hours ago that four teams were in the mix – San Jose, Dallas, Anaheim, and Toronto. Dallas seems intent on landing a big name, and Toronto has been active all afternoon. It’s hard to see Marleau going to the rival Ducks, but anything can happen. Kevin Kurz of NBC Sports California believes that the other franchises have offered the veteran winger more lucrative contract opportunities. It’s uncertain how much of this is posturing for a better deal from the Sharks, or whether he is serious about moving on.

Thomas Vanek (#9) – Vanek is apparently still in talks with multiple suitors, according to the Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta. There hasn’t been much smoke around Vanek, but I would expect things to heat up in the coming days. Although he’s slowed a step, he’s arguably one of the best forwards available and he won’t be exorbitantly expensive. He’s productive at 5 on 5 and he would be a solid fit in many teams’ top-six forward groups. Florida seems content to move on, but that could always change.

Jaromir Jagr (#13) – Perhaps the ageless wonder finally has worn out his welcome. According to his own twitter, he hasn’t received any calls. It’s shocking to see him go without any substantial interest, because he can certainly still produce. In this copycat league, it seems every franchise is trying to mimic the speedy model that has seen recent success. Perhaps a slowed Jagr is becoming a tougher sell. He’s definitely going to settle for less money than he was hoping for.

Andrei Markov (#14) – With the reports that Markov wants a two year contract with a $6 MM AAV, it’s not surprising that Montreal walked away. With Karl Alzner now in the fold, they have a lot of money already allocated to the blueline. They could always circle back, but Markov still provides a unique and valued skillset at his age and is likely to find a home elsewhere. Any team with a poor powerplay could be the one that gives the old-timer the contract he wants.

Mike Fisher (#18)  – With Nashville acquiring Nick Bonino, and hinting that he will be their second line center, it seems a safe bet that Fisher may retire. If he wants to return, it would be on a sweetheart deal. Fisher has shown little interest in moving away from Tennessee.

Drew Stafford (#21) – Stafford had a rough year, but it’s difficult to imagine he won’t be a bargain for whichever team snags him. His 21 points last season through 58 games were easily a career low, but he’s only one year removed from a 21-goal season in Winnipeg.  Boston GM Don Sweeney hasn’t cut off ties, apparently, according to CBS Boston’s Matt Kalman. Other than that, we’re pretty much in the dark. At this point, he’d be a low-risk top-nine player for any team looking to fill out their forward corps. Interest should pick up.

Cody Franson (#22) – Franson is arguably the most coveted defenseman that remains, as he performed admirably on a dreadful Sabres squad. It will be interesting to see the sort of money he will command. Today has been a day where both the money and term for most contracts has been remarkably reasonable. As the free agent bonanza drags on into day two, it begs the question of whether the prices will come down ever further. Franson can step in and contribute on a second pairing, but teams should be wary of giving him too many minutes. As a right-handed shot, his value is only increased, but will teams who missed out on Alzner and Shattenkirk be interested in allocating a good portion of that money to Franson instead?

 

San Jose Sharks Sign Vlasic, Jones To Long-Term Extensions

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In the middle of free agent frenzy, the San Jose Sharks have locked up two key players to long-term deals according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN. Marc-Edouard Vlasic has signed an eight-year, $56MM extension, while Martin Jones inks a six-year, $34.5MM deal. Both contracts will kick in for the 2018-19 season.

It’s been reported for months that the pair would ink extensions to keep them in San Jose long-term, but both of these deals do come with quite the price tag. For Vlasic, who made it clear he wanted to stay in San Jose for the rest of his career, this contract will take him past his 39th birthday, paying him a whopping $7MM per season. While he’s currently an excellent defender, capable of playing one of the best two-way games in the league, you have to think his decline will begin in the next few years, making the end of that contract look awful.

Even if you get five more seasons of peak Vlasic, that’s still only covering half the extension. In time, the pair of contracts handed out to Vlasic and Brent Burns—who starts an eight-year, $64MM extension this season at age 32—may destroy the salary structure of the Sharks.

Jones’ contract, while expensive in its own right, is much more palatable when looking long-term. The 27-year old goaltender may still face some doubters after just two seasons as a full-time starter, but already will come in behind nine other goaltenders in terms of cap hit for the 2018-19 season (with several others likely signing bigger deals before then).

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