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Thomas Vanek

Top Ten Remaining UFAs

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Before NHL free agency opened up this summer, PHR published a list of the top-50 NHL UFAs. Two weeks into the offseason and the majority have signed deals—leaving 18 out of 50 still looking for a new NHL contract.  Below are the top ten players still on the market:

[initial writeups credited to PHR’s Gavin Lee]

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Detroit Red Wings Still Linked To Thomas Vanek

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According to Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press, the Detroit Red Wings are still in contact with unrestricted free agent Thomas Vanek. Recently, Vanek came second in our poll of readers on who they considered the best free agent remaining, only coming in behind the legendary Jaromir Jagr who is getting some interesting offers of his own.

Vanek started last season with the Red Wings after being bought out by the Minnesota Wild, a move that was mostly because of the negative impact he had in his own end. Those same defensive questions remain this summer even after another season of good offensive performance. 48 points split between Detroit and the Florida Panthers—where he was dealt at the trade deadline—marked the 12th consecutive season (every single year of his career) that he’d recorded more than 40.

That type of offensive consistency isn’t easy to come by, and some team will be able to plug him into a sort of specialist role including lots of powerplay time and a regular turn in the shootout. It will be difficult for the Red Wings though, as St. James makes it clear that the team would need to move salary out before bringing in the 33-year old.

The interesting thing about Vanek is that he would once again be a trade candidate at the deadline should he sign with a bubble team, making Detroit a likely landing spot for just part of the season unless they drastically turn around their play from a year ago.

Free Agent Profile: Thomas Vanek

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We are a week into free agency and a top ten member of the class is still available. Thomas Vanek, ranked eighth among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, still remains unsigned to the surprise of many. Vanek was a free agent last summer as well, after having the final season of a three-year $19.5MM contract with the Minnesota Wild bought out. While there were questions about his game then as well, and an apparent lack of interest that led to a one-year, $2.6MM deal with the Red Wings (a 60% drop in value from his $6.5MM AAV with the Wild), there was still sufficient enough demand that Detroit felt they had to lock him up right away on July 1st. This year? Not so much.

The strange thing about Vanek’s 2017 scenario is that he is coming off a strong, redeeming campaign. Rather than last summer, when he was fresh off the worst season of his career and a buyout, Vanek instead entered the free agent market this year with a 38-point season under his belt, seven more points in six less games than 2015-16. Vanek played extremely well in Detroit, posting 15 goals and 23 assists in 48 games, creating plenty of buzz around his trade deadline status. Although rumors swirled that Vanek would like to re-sign with the Red Wings, the team nevertheless got what they could for him, sending Vanek to the Florida Panthers for Dylan McIlrath and a third-round draft pick. In Florida, Vanek added two goals and eight assists in 20 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs and Vanek was out of time to show off for teams in need of scoring this summer.

Apparently, he needed to do more in 2016-17. With 697 points in 885 NHL games, Vanek’s history as an elite scorer is well established. A two-time 40-goal scorer and power play wizard, who has twice in his career topped a point-per-game pace for a whole season, there is little doubt about Vanek’s track record of creating offense. However, there are questions as to just how fast that offensive ability is slowing down. Vanek is certainly no longer a threat for 40 or even 30 goals, nor does he sit atop the league in man-up production any more. While he seemingly proved in Detroit that he can still deliver 40 or 50 points, he also looked slower up and down the ice and lacked the same quickness and creativity in the offensive zone that he used to have. The lack of interest could also be due to a noticeable drop-off in defensive ability. Vanek was never a Selke candidate, but he has always played a sound two-way game. As he has slowed down the past two years, his defensive stats have dropped off and he often looked solely focused with keeping up on offense, rather than playing a complete game. Endurance, and all that it entails in the back-and-forth game of hockey, simply seems to be an issue for Vanek and is unlikely to improve.

Nonetheless, 48 points is 48 points and there is a reason why Vanek was ranked #8 out of all free agents. The shooting ability and offensive instincts are still there for the 33-year-old, and 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr is still making that skill set work in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time before Vanek signs somewhere, but just like last summer, it appears as if it could be another bargain for a player whose age and pace of play seemed to be blown out of proportion while his experience and offensive contribution are under-rated.

Potential Suitors

We originally projected that Vanek would return to the Florida Panthers, who were in need of scoring help, especially with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith now in Las Vegas. However, Dale Tallon and the Panthers went in a different direction, bringing back Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL and inking a different veteran scorer, Radim Vrbata. Like Vrbata and Jagr, Vanek seems best-suited for one-year or short-term deals the rest of the way, especially if he’s struggling to establish his value. Who could use a short-term scorer? A return to Detroit could make sense. The fit worked out great and there were talks of an extension prior to the deadline trade, so the two sides might see if Lightning can strike twice. The Red Wings lack much cap space and should be rebuilding, but GM Ken Holland might have missed that memo. Another possibility could be the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are still a contender out West, just one year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance, but have had a very quiet off-season and just lost a high-scoring veteran winger in Patrick Marleau. This year’s Western Conference Cup qualifier, the Nashville Predators, traded away a key forward in Colin Wilson and have more than enough cap space to squeeze Vanek in if they so choose. The Boston Bruins could use another scoring threat in the top nine and they might not mind having Vanek, notorious for his strong play against Boston during his years with the Sabres and Canadiens, on their side for once. Finally, don’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, who certainly don’t need to get slower, but who surely need more scoring with few dependable options left on the market.

Expected Contract

We predicted that Vanek would sign a one-year, $3MM deal this off-season, a logical next step after a bounce back season on a one-year, $2.6MM contract. That range still seems reasonable, unless the market really is as quiet as it seems and no one is willing to pony up that kind of money. The affordable contracts signed by aging scorers like Kris Versteeg (#26) and Ales Hemsky (#44) combined with the availability of Jagr (#13), Drew Stafford (#21), and Jiri Hudler (#40), doesn’t help Vanek’s cause. He’s not ready to retire and he won’t move overseas, but don’t be surprised if Vanek remains unsigned, holding out for market value, before finally signing for less than he did last summer.

Kings Looking To Shift Course

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After missing the playoffs two seasons in a row, the L.A. Kings have fallen pretty hard from grace. After winning the cup twice in three years, it’s been one bad story after another for the team from Hollywood. Dustin Brown was stripped of the captaincy and relegated to bottom-six duties, not long after former key contributor Mike Richards found himself terminated due to a combination of on-ice, off-ice, and salary issues. Matt Greene had to be bought out entirely. Marian Gaborik is 35, signed for four more seasons, and just put together two underwhelming performances back-t0-back. The defense has gotten more top-heavy, and after losing Brayden McNabb to Vegas in the expansion draft, is set to lose another valuable piece. The head coach who earned the franchise its two rings was fired and a re-tread coach from Philadelphia will get his opportunity in 2017-18.

In an article with the L.A. Times written by Helene Elliotts, GM Rob Blake details the change in philosophy the Kings will need to adopt if they are going to find success in the near future. Ultimately, he wants to predicate the team’s identity more on speed, while staying true to their defensive style. Los Angeles has played a heavy, physical, stifling game to get their championships, and it appears that Blake is shifting away from that mantra next season. He isolated the “core” of the team as Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, and Jonathan Quick. It might be drawn from his sentiment thatt other, more expendable pieces that may be available if the Kings continue to merely tread water.

Los Angeles did make a decent bargain-bin signing in Mike Cammalleri, who was sunk by a capsized New Jersey Devils squad last season. The potential for him to rebound and be productive is quite high, but it may not be nearly enough. The Kings beat out only Philadelphia, Colorado, New Jersey and Vancouver in terms of fewest goals scored. Carter and Pearson were the only twenty-goal scorers on the team. Guaranteed offense is an absolute need, and although former coach Darryl Sutter’s systems were a component of the struggles, the team needs more reliable production. Their defense is still the team’s greatest organizational strength, but it does strike some as odd that a player like McNabb wasn’t shuffled elsewhere for scoring help rather than being sacrificed for nothing to expansion.

If the Kings decide at this late stage to go the free agency route, their options are solid if a bit older. If speed is the determinant factor, that may seem to rule out the likes of Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla, while leaving the possibility of a Thomas Vanek signing open. More likely, however, the Blake and the Kings will need to probe the trade market. From there, the team will likely need to surrender future assets if they hope to receive solid scoring in a returning package. The team could take a lot of offensive pressure off of Kopitar (who himself is more of a two-way player) if they could swing a trade for a solid center. Matt Duchene is likely out of their price range, and Alex Galchenyuk’s value just skyrocketed. The bottom-six wingers are dreadfully lacking in experience, so an upgrade to the third line couldn’t hurt. Cap space is tight, however, as the team will only have over $5.5 MM after re-signing RFAs Nick Shore and Kevin Gravel. It may take outside-the-box thinking to bring the Kings back into contender status, but Blake seems primed to make moves, albeit on his own timeline.

Best Of What’s Left

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As we close in on the end of an only moderately crazy July 1st, there are quite a few names that remain from our Top-50 Free Agents list. Here are the best of what remains, and an update on each:

 

Alexander Radulov (#2) – Radulov is apparently playing two serious suitors off one another – Montreal and Dallas. Nothing has substantially changed since that was reported by Pierre Lebrun at mid-day. Perhaps a deal is sorted out tomorrow, but the main issue seems to be term. Radulov had a solid season in Quebec, but perhaps his Nashville baggage is scaring the GMs away from a long-term commitment. Many might cite the Russian factor here as the holdup, but the bigger deal is that Radulov only has one successful NHL season under his belt this decade. 54 points is impressive, but it’s a small sample size.

Patrick Marleau (#6) – The longer this trails on, the more likely it would seem that Marleau is headed away from Northern California for the first time in his career. We at PHR generally believed he would remain, but other teams are pushing hard for his services. Darren Dreger reported hours ago that four teams were in the mix – San Jose, Dallas, Anaheim, and Toronto. Dallas seems intent on landing a big name, and Toronto has been active all afternoon. It’s hard to see Marleau going to the rival Ducks, but anything can happen. Kevin Kurz of NBC Sports California believes that the other franchises have offered the veteran winger more lucrative contract opportunities. It’s uncertain how much of this is posturing for a better deal from the Sharks, or whether he is serious about moving on.

Thomas Vanek (#9) – Vanek is apparently still in talks with multiple suitors, according to the Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta. There hasn’t been much smoke around Vanek, but I would expect things to heat up in the coming days. Although he’s slowed a step, he’s arguably one of the best forwards available and he won’t be exorbitantly expensive. He’s productive at 5 on 5 and he would be a solid fit in many teams’ top-six forward groups. Florida seems content to move on, but that could always change.

Jaromir Jagr (#13) – Perhaps the ageless wonder finally has worn out his welcome. According to his own twitter, he hasn’t received any calls. It’s shocking to see him go without any substantial interest, because he can certainly still produce. In this copycat league, it seems every franchise is trying to mimic the speedy model that has seen recent success. Perhaps a slowed Jagr is becoming a tougher sell. He’s definitely going to settle for less money than he was hoping for.

Andrei Markov (#14) – With the reports that Markov wants a two year contract with a $6 MM AAV, it’s not surprising that Montreal walked away. With Karl Alzner now in the fold, they have a lot of money already allocated to the blueline. They could always circle back, but Markov still provides a unique and valued skillset at his age and is likely to find a home elsewhere. Any team with a poor powerplay could be the one that gives the old-timer the contract he wants.

Mike Fisher (#18)  – With Nashville acquiring Nick Bonino, and hinting that he will be their second line center, it seems a safe bet that Fisher may retire. If he wants to return, it would be on a sweetheart deal. Fisher has shown little interest in moving away from Tennessee.

Drew Stafford (#21) – Stafford had a rough year, but it’s difficult to imagine he won’t be a bargain for whichever team snags him. His 21 points last season through 58 games were easily a career low, but he’s only one year removed from a 21-goal season in Winnipeg.  Boston GM Don Sweeney hasn’t cut off ties, apparently, according to CBS Boston’s Matt Kalman. Other than that, we’re pretty much in the dark. At this point, he’d be a low-risk top-nine player for any team looking to fill out their forward corps. Interest should pick up.

Cody Franson (#22) – Franson is arguably the most coveted defenseman that remains, as he performed admirably on a dreadful Sabres squad. It will be interesting to see the sort of money he will command. Today has been a day where both the money and term for most contracts has been remarkably reasonable. As the free agent bonanza drags on into day two, it begs the question of whether the prices will come down ever further. Franson can step in and contribute on a second pairing, but teams should be wary of giving him too many minutes. As a right-handed shot, his value is only increased, but will teams who missed out on Alzner and Shattenkirk be interested in allocating a good portion of that money to Franson instead?

 

Morning Notes: Del Zotto, Johansen, Doan

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With the free agent period set to open tomorrow morning, there are several interesting options available. One of those is Michael Del Zotto, who has shown flashes of brilliance in an otherwise underwhelming career so far. Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 in Vancouver is reporting that the Canucks are the leading candidate on Del Zotto, after some productive talks during the free agent window.

Though Del Zotto isn’t a game-changing name, he does bring some upside and relative youth from a fairly stagnant market. At just 27 he’s one of the younger defensemen available and has shown the ability to be a 40-point player in the past. Vancouver, looking for assets to perhaps flip at the deadline would do well in taking a chance on the former Flyer. We ranked Del Zotto #24 among our Top 50 Free Agents, expecting him to get a two-year contract.

  • The checkbook might have to come out for Ryan Johansen, as the Nashville Predators center is looking for $8.5MM per season on a long-term contract according to Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News. While the final number may come down substantially, Johansen does have a strong case as a restricted free agent. Though he’s only 24, Johansen already has six seasons under his belt in the NHL and thus would be giving away almost entirely UFA years in any long-term deal. After his fourth-straight 60-point season and checking basically every other box you want from a #1 center (size, defense and faceoffs) he has a lot of leverage in any negotiation. For what it’s worth, only five centers in the entire league have a cap hit of $8.5MM or above: Jonathan Toews, Anze Kopitar, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby.
  • Craig Morgan of AZ Sports tweets that four teams have reached out to agent Terry Bross in regards to Shane Doan, but the long-time Coyotes forward won’t make a decision for a while yet. It’s not even clear if Doan will actually play next season, but all signs point to him wanting to suit up once again. It probably need to be a legitimate role on a contender to coax Doan to come aboard, and it’s unclear where that will be. Doan ranked #35 on our free agent list, but wasn’t even included in the top 50 on two ballots. It’s clear that opinions are mixed on whether he has anything left to contribute around the league.
  • Michael Russo of the Star Tribune has a couple of notes to pass along today, the first being that Thomas Vanek has had a few teams reach out including the Florida Panthers. Vanek has strong ties to the Minnesota community, but Russo doesn’t mention the Wild as a possibility for the 33-year old forward. The other note is concerning Marco Scandella and a continuing interest from the Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo has been trying to improve their defense for a while, and Minnesota is still expected to move at least one defender before the start of the season.
  • Dinamo Riga has signed former NHL goaltender Justin Peters, ending for now his struggle in the minor leagues. Peters got into three games for the Coyotes this season, but has spent the majority of his time in the AHL the last few seasons. A second-round pick by Carolina in 2004, he’s played in 83 games in his NHL career, registering a .901 save percentage.

Hindsight Bias: The Best And Worst Of Trade Deadline Day

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With the conference championships underway, we’re left with just four teams remaining in the hunt for the Stanley Cup. For the rest, they can take a look at the major trades made up to and on March 1st this year and gauge whether they were a mistake or a success. It’s somewhat of a mixed bag this year, with no deadline acquisition fueling their team to postseason dominance and no scapegoat whose underwhelming performance is to blame for an epic collapse. With that said, over two months later, it is safe to say that there were some clear winner and loser trades at the 2017 NHL Trade Deadline.

Winner: Anaheim Ducks – Patrick Eaves

Eaves has quietly been one of the most consistent contributors in the NHL this season and that did not change when he moved from the Dallas Stars to the Ducks ahead of the deadline. A versatile, two-way winger, Eaves has fit in well in Anaheim as is the lone major deadline addition who is still playing in the conference championships. After scoring 37 points in 59 games with the Stars, about .63 points per game, he registered 14 more in the final 20 regular season games for the Ducks, boosting his scoring to .7 points per game down the stretch in his new home. He even has two goals and two assists in seven playoff games, despite battling injuries. Anaheim may be down 1-0 in their pursuit of the Campbell Bowl and a Stanley Cup berth and their postseason success has bumped the price for Eaves up from a 2017 second-round pick to a first-rounder, but with a one in four chance at a title and a chance to re-sign Eaves, the Ducks cannot be more pleased with how this deal has played out thus far.

Loser: Minnesota Wild – Martin Hanzal

A team that is not so happy with their first-round investment is Minnesota. The Wild had been one of the best teams in the league all season long when they surprised many by acquiring one of the top trade deadline targets in Hanzal. The power forward performed admirably post-trade, putting up half as many points as his season total in Arizona in less than half as many games, 26 in 51 versus 13 in 25. He even added a playoff goal. However, his time in the playoffs, by no fault of his own, was much shorter than expected. The Wild were upset by the St. Louis Blues in five games and just like that they’re Stanley Cup hopes were gone. Falling so short despite high expectations makes the cost of adding a piece that didn’t matter much more difficult to swallow. Minnesota owes the Arizona Coyotes a top pick this season and a second-rounder next season plus another conditional pick and prospect, with little to show for the price.

Winner: New York Rangers – Brendan Smith

While the Rangers were underwhelming in their semi-final series against the Ottawa Senators, one many expected them to win, their exit is still not all that surprising given their status as a wildcard seed. Helping them to upset the Montreal Canadiens in Round One and take the Senators to six games was deadline acquisition Smith. While some initially mocked the deal – a 2018 second-round pick and 2017 third-round pick for a defenseman with just five points – Smith proved to be an excellent fit in New York. He scored four points in 18 games with the Rangers and also played better in his own end, earning him more play time. A disappointing start to the season in Detroit for the career-Red Wing quickly turned into a career revival with impressive play for his new squad. The postseason brought yet another four points and continued high-level play for Smith. Unfortunately, perhaps his worst game as a Ranger came in the elimination loss to the Senators when he was exposed on defense multiple times. Yet, in the big picture he was a success in New York. There is no word yet on whether there is mutual interest between both sides in an extension, especially since the Rangers carry many expensive blue line contract, but regardless this deal has to be considered a win for the Blueshirts.

Loser: Los Angeles Kings – Ben Bishop

Bishop may be happily settling in to his new home in Dallas after signing a nice six-year deal, but his time in Los Angeles did little to help him secure that contact. The Kings and the keeper were strange bedfellows to begin with, as now ex-GM Dean Lombardi traded red-hot backup goalie Peter Budaj, 2015 second-round defenseman Erik Cernak, and a 2017 seventh-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Bishop, just as starter Jonathan Quick was returning to health. The Kings needed scoring, not better goaltending, if they wanted to make the playoffs, but ended up with neither from the Bishop trade as he picked up only two wins in seven appearances with L.A. and posted just a .900 save percentage. The Kings finished 10th in the Western Conference and eight points out of a playoff spot, not even all that close to a berth, and now need to find a new backup goalie for 2017-18. The Bishop trade makes as little sense now as it did then and undoubtedly figured in to Lombardi’s firing.

Winner: Boston Bruins – Drew Stafford

The Bruins may have lost in the first round of the playoffs, but they likely wouldn’t have if four of their six starting defenseman didn’t miss all or most of the series. Even with those major injuries, the Ottawa Senators still had a difficult time eliminating the Bruins and Stafford was a thorn in their side with two goals and consistent two-way contribution. Add in four goals, matching his total earlier in the season with the Winnipeg Jets, and four assists in 18 regular season games as well as an outstanding +8 rating, and Stafford was an excellent addition for Boston. Acquired for just a sixth-round pick, Stafford was easily the steal of the trade deadline and ongoing talks of an extension would only add more value to a shrewd deal by GM Don Sweeney. 

Loser: Florida Panthers – Thomas Vanek

Vanek was having a great season for the Detroit Red Wings when the Trade Deadline rolled around. He had 38 points in 48 games and was sniping with accuracy unseen over the past five years. When the Florida Panthers struck a deal to acquire that level of talent for just a 2017 third-round pick and struggling prospect Dylan McIlrath, there was a consensus that they had won the trade considering the affordable cost. Yet, the counter to that argument was that, even if he maintained the same rate of production, Vanek alone was likely not enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs. In the end, that proved to be true. Vanek’s scoring dropped off to just two goals and ten points in 20 games and his shooting percentage fell almost ten points, but even if it hadn’t, the Panthers wouldn’t have qualified for the postseason. They finished 13th in the Eastern Conference, 14 points shy of a playoff spot. At the end of the day, acquiring the impending free agent and missing the playoffs by that much was simply a waste of a third-round pick for a team that is still building.

Loser: New York Islanders – No One

The idea that you can’t lose at the Trade Deadline if you don’t make a deal is incorrect. Case in point: the 2016-17 Islanders. New York ended up missing the postseason by just one point and their playoff hopes were alive up to the final day of the season. Had the Isles made a trade, even a small one, that could have won them one more game down the stretch, they might have been a playoff team after all. Given their need to convince star John Tavares to stick around, the Islanders should have been more willing to do something – anything – to transform into a playoff team.

Course Adjustment For Colorado

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Colorado needs to determine the road ahead for its franchise. The unexpected plummet to the 4th overall pick in the draft lottery did not help matters, to be sure, but the Avalanche need more than a Nolan Patrick to catapult them back into contention. The team has lacked identity for years and a team philosophy is hard to isolate. The team finished a league worst 22 wins, good for an embarrassingly bad 48 points. They were not expected to be serious cup contenders coming into the year, but this is a team that had veteran scorers and a decent goaltending duo to back up their young forward core. Yet they finished in dead last in both offensive and defensive categories – 1.74 goals for per 60, and 2.93 goals against. With such an incredible disparity it’s actually impressive they won as many contests as they did.

GM Joe Sakic needs to determine which pieces of his core (if any) are worth keeping. It seems probable that the team could consider trading away its captain in Gabriel Landeskog, and the case for doing so is strong. He potted only 18 goals and 15 assists this season, his 5th full campaign – at the exorbitant price of $5.5 MM (which will become $6 MM next season). The center has never developed into the offensive threat the franchise had hoped when he was selected 2nd overall in 2011. His point totals have dropped for the second season in a row. However, his Corsi For % was actually his career best at 52.8, and on a team that bled goals and chances, he performed admirably in his own end. Whether he is worth his deal is certainly a less pressing issue than stopping the bleeding. Unless an over-payment comes along the Avalanche would be wise to stick out at least another season with the still-promising left wing.

Speedy forward Matt Duchene is two years older, and fared only marginally better, with 18 goals and 23 assists. Duchene is not physically imposing a 5’11”, and he is more effective on the rush. His speed and versatility are his greatest assets. Duchene’s skating can burn defenders and his skating is among the tops in the league. When considering that the quick and fleet-footed Nathan MacKinnon is also on the team, it seems that Colorado might want to double down on the speed aspect of their negligible identity. Duchene would almost certainly draw more interest than Landeskog, as the forward did pot 30 goals just the previous season. Although the talk seems distant now, there was considerable conversation following the 2009 draft that the Islanders would have done better to draft Duchene than John Tavares. This is a player who can make a meaningful difference on the playmaking side of things, but saw a drastic drop off in play. Trading Duchene seems the most logical option, but his departure will only leave the center ice position more lackluster.

The Avalanche could toy with moving RFA center Mikhail Grigorenko, or RFA defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, but the returns after last season would be marginal at best. One can only assume that Sakicc attempted to unload forwards like Blake Comeau ($2.5 MM), and now UFA defenseman Fedor Tyutin to no avail. Thankfully the well-worn Jarome Iginla was shipped off to Los Angeles and there are indeed older players coming off the books. The 35 year-old Rene Bourque and 32 year-old John Mitchell will both be UFAs and will have difficulty finding work next season in the league.

Ultimately, the problem for the Avalanche wasn’t that their stars didn’t produce, although that certainly didn’t help their goal totals. Their team was filled with washed-up veterans and outside of the big 3 on offense there was really no threat to score. On the backend, once Erik Johnson went down, the rest of the defense was not nearly good enough to keep up. Tyson Barrie is the only player who should feel remotely safe, and the young RFA Nikita Zadorov is likely to hang around. Francois Beauchemin is not the defender he was even two seasons ago, and if he could somehow be traded it would help performance substantially.

Trading away the #4 selection is usually an unthinkable notion with a team at this stage of a rebuild, but if they can move it for substantial help on defense or on the wing, it should be considered. Especially considering how mediocre this draft class is, it might turn out to be a prudent maneuver. One of Landeskog or Duchene seems likely to depart, but without a king’s ransom coming back, it’s not likely to alter long-term prospects for the franchise. Colorado simply needs to draft better, develop better, and find a coach with the structure that a young, struggling squad will need. If they could make a serious pitch to Karl Alzner this off-season, or perhaps even Thomas Vanek on the wing, they would be in a better position to compete on a nightly basis. Their offensive stars are unlikely to be quite as dreadful in points production yet again. Perhaps the most positive aspect of the upcoming season will be the infusion of youth from the minor leagues, and the ditching of dead weight up and down the lineup. Sakic will need to provide stability for the franchise and perhaps even display some patience rather than dumping a slumping offensive talent for a lackluster package. Although fans may wish for change at any cost, ditching their core players for scraps is not likely the best way forward. Whatever course Colorado decides to take, fans around the league will be watching with interest this summer.

Detroit’s Uncertain Future

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The Detroit Red Wings missed the playoffs for the first time in 25 years in 2016-17. Not seeing the winged wheel on the ice is something deeply unfamiliar to many, and Detroit’s management is hoping that it won’t become a trend. However, there is definitely concern going forward as to what direction the team will head. While the team is technically going through a rebuild, effectively doing so can be quite difficult when you have so many aging players taking up spots and cap dollars. There are also questions as to whether any extended period of failure would be embraced by management, as fan-site Winging it in Motown wondered earlier this month. The strategy for GM Ken Holland is going to be complicated, as fans might need to grow accustomed to losing for a brief spell if the team is to strengthen its core.

Firstly, they will need to decide which players are part of the core and which are accessory pieces. There were good signs this off-season when Holland decided to sell assets, including Thomas Vanek, Tomas Jurco, Brendan Smith, and Steve Ott. This is a solid portent that there will be future moves, but there is room for doubt. For example, the 36 year-old Henrik Zetterberg has 4 years left on his contract at $6.083 MM, while the 33 year-old Frans Nielsen was just signed to his long-term deal, good for another 5 years at $5.25 MM. Justin Abdelkader and Darren Helm still have plenty left in the tank, but at $4.25 MM and $3.8 MM respectively, and years of term, is a full rebuild truly so feasible? Niklas Kronwall is another well-paid veteran at 36 years-old, and he has two more seasons under contract.

Then there is the goaltending situation. Detroit is paying over $9 million dollars in contracts to their two tenders, both of which have had their difficulties. Jimmy Howard had what could be considered a bounceback year, posting a .927 save percentage after the awful .906 dip the season before. The caveat – he only started 26 games. The other half of the duo, Petr Mrazek, received the bulk of the starts – 50 in all. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive to a .901 save percentage, as he struggled mightily behind his flightless team. To complicate matters, Howard has a modified No-Trade Clause, under which he can list the 10 teams he would accept a trade. The obvious decision seems to be that they will bank on Howard going forward and try to flip Mrazek to a team in need of help in the crease – he only has one year remaining at $4 MM before he needs his contract re-negotiated. If they are unable to do so, Mrazek would likely be snagged by Vegas in the expansion draft. But management obviously showed confidence in Mrazek’s abilities this season, sticking through him despite his impressively bad statistics. Perhaps Howard is the one on the way out of Motown. But if Mrazek flounders yet again, what does the pipeline hold?

The team as a whole has already allotted $67.09 MM to 18 players (two of whom are now on LTIR), and they need to sign RFAs Andreas Athanasiou, Xavier Ouellet, and Tomas Tatar. Only two players are coming off the books, the moderately paid forwards Joe Vitale and Drew Miller, either of whom could potentially re-sign. In terms of prospects, the talented winger Evgeny Svechnikov is the most promising potential addition. He posted 20 goals and 51 points in his rookie season with the Grand Rapids Griffins and impressed with his size. Anthony Mantha continues to be intriguing, and Athanasiou definitely has the talent to take another step forward. However, there isn’t a ton of help on the horizon in terms of defense. A top-flight prospect here would do wonders for the squad going forward. With 11 picks in this year’s draft, in what is Holland’s last contracted season as GM, decisions with incredible importance lie ahead. Will Hockeytown fully commit to a long-term rebuild, or will they make runs at competing in the relatively weak Atlantic division with a mix of aging and inexperienced players?

Atlantic Notes: Leafs’ Struggles, Zetterberg, Bjugstad

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The Maple Leafs are in need of a run after a poor showing in California writes the Toronto Sun’s Terry Koshan. After an 0-2-1 record following their California trip, Koshan calls “frustration and disappointment” the co-passengers on the flight back to Toronto. The Leafs, who face the Red Wings on Tuesday, hardly sound downtrodden, despite sitting a point out of a playoff spot, with the New York Islanders having a game in hand. The Panthers, and Flyers are both nipping at the Leafs’ heels, only behind by a point, and three points respectively. Regardless, head coach Mike Babcock  old his team that as it gets more competitive during a playoff chase, it’s important to “play right.”

In other Atlantic Division news:

  • The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James reports that the Red Wings still believe they have a chance at sneaking into the playoffs. Though a tall order, St. James writes that Justin Abdelkader, and Darren Helm have both played strong and the return of Gustay Nyquist could bolster a lineup missing Thomas Vanek, and Brendan Smith, who were both offensive threats traded at the deadline. St. James tweeted Friday that bench boss Jeff Blashill believes that Detroit can make the playoffs because of Henrik Zetterberg’s strong play. St. James explains that Blashill realizes the mountain the Red Wings have to climb in order for that to happen, but he believes that if anyone can will a team into the playoffs, it would be Detroit’s captain.
  • Speaking of Vanek, he could be the tonic to Nick Bjugstad’s struggles writes The Miami Herald’s David Neal. Vanek was acquired at the trade deadline Thursday and will be counted on to provide timely for scoring as he did in Detroit. Bjugstad has mirrored his team’s struggles at home, and the hope is that Bjugstad’s game can be rejuvenated by Vanek. Jonathan Marchessault will flank Bjugstad on the wing with Vanek, and head coach Tom Rowe believes that the trio can account for some much needed scoring.

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