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Sabres Notes: Botterill, Head Coach Options

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With Jason Botterill officially leaving the Pittsburgh Penguins organization to assume the GM duties in Buffalo, the rookie manager faces the tall task of turning a Sabres team that has failed to qualify for the postseason since 2010-11 into a legitimate Stanley Cup threat. His job is a little easier given the presence of  franchise center Jack Eichel and a talented blue liner in Rasmus Ristolainen, who has the potential to be a top-pair defender for many years. However, the challenge that confronts Botterill is still daunting. Along those lines, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox identifies six high priority items he believes the new GM must tackle in his quest to build a winning organization.

First, and perhaps most obvious, the Sabres will have to hire a coach and given the reportedly tumultuous relationship former head coach Dan Bylsma had with many of his charges, getting the right guy behind the bench is critical to Buffalo’s future. Fox lists several names that have been floated in the media, with current Pittsburgh assistants Rich Tocchet and Jacques Martin standing out due to their prior working relationship with Botterill. Both men have prior head coaching experience and given the recent success each has enjoyed as members of the Penguins staff, either would be able to bring a winning mentality to Buffalo.

Additionally, Fox points out that Botterill will have to fix a defense corps that was a glaring weakness last season and is slated to see two regulars, Cody Franson and Dmitry Kulikov, depart as free agents. There will be options available this summer in free agency, Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk and Trevor Daley are among those specifically mentioned by the scribe, but likely won’t come cheap. Given the team’s salary cap situation – less than $23MM in projected space – and with Eichel and Sam Reinhart each needing new deals ahead of 2018-19, Botterill will have to be judicious with his cap dollars in the offseason.

All told, it’s an interesting take on Botterill’s situation with the Sabres, and well worth a full read.

In other Sabres news:

  • Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News also has a suggestion for Botterill’s head coaching search, identifying Washington assistant coach Todd Reirden as “the perfect fit,” for the Sabres. Kennedy references that prior to joining the Capitals, Reirden served on Dan Bylsma’s coaching staff in Pittsburgh where Botterill would have had a chance to get to know the former NHL defenseman. Additionally, the first-time GM is on record as saying he wants Buffalo to play an up-tempo brand of hockey that focuses on puck possession. As Kennedy points out, Reirden’s former employer, Washington, has been one of the league’s top teams in terms of possession in recent seasons. Reirden also guided one of the NHL’s top defense corps, with the Capitals allowing the fewest goals in the league in 2016-17. Botterill also said he is looking for a teacher and as Kennedy points out, Reirden has earned rave reviews in Washington with his help developing Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov into quality defenseman. It’s also worth noting that with Buffalo believed to be in the market for blue liners, hiring Reirden might give them a leg up on the competition should they pursue pending Washington UFA defenders Karl Alzner and/or Kevin Shattenkirk.
  • Lastly, Bill Hoppe of Buffalo Hockey Beat writes that Botterill intends to prioritize icing a competitive team in Rochester, believing that success in the AHL is a great tool in developing young talent. Botterill was a key figure for three seasons with Rochester and played with future Sabres Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Paul Gaustad with the Amerks. Those players would help guide the Sabres to back-to-back appearances in the Conference Final after the 2006-07 and 2007-08 campaigns. That was the last time Buffalo won even a playoff round, and they’ve made the postseason just twice in the 10 years since. Botterill also saw a strong feeder team payoff while in Pittsburgh, with young players like Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel, just to name a few, coming up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and making an immediate impact with the big club. Sheary and Rust won a Stanley Cup last season with Pittsburgh and the Penguins have a chance to repeat that feat as they begin their Eastern Conference final match against Ottawa later today.

Metro Division Notes: Capitals, Smith, Flyers, Shero

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With perhaps the most complete team top-to-bottom in franchise history, the Washington Capitals believed they had all the pieces to finally propel themselves past the arch-rival Pittsburgh Penguins and into the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in Alex Ovechkin’s 12-year NHL career. However, after yet another disappointing defeat at the hands of the Penguins, Washington must now once again go back to the drawing board in search of the right formula. Unlike in years past when the roster’s shortcomings were easy to identify, Capitals GM Brian McLellan will have a much tougher time this summer identifying an obvious solution to the team’s deficiencies, as Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post writes.

As Khurshudyan notes, since assuming the top job with the Caps, MacLellan has strategically set about filling holes on the roster as he attempted to construct a championship team. First he went to work to address the team’s defense corps, inking veteran blue liners Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik as free agents in the summer of 2014. The next year, the GM brought in Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie via free agency and trade respectively, to “bolster the top-six.” Last summer, MacLellan dealt two draft picks to Montreal for Lars Eller and signed Brett Connolly to add more speed and skill to the team’s third line. The cherry on top was acquiring prized, puck-moving defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, adding an impact player to an already stacked lineup while at the same time keeping him from going to a conference rival (it was believed Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Rangers were also in the Shattenkirk sweepstakes). While it all added up to perhaps the best team in the league on paper, in the end Washington couldn’t exorcise their postseason demons and once again are left wondering what could have been.

Clearly MacLellan will again try to construct a Stanley Cup-caliber club but with Oshie, Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Williams all scheduled to be UFA’s, and with less than $22MM available in projected cap space, it’s likely the team will lose at least two key contributors from that group. Complicating matters is the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov will be RFA’s and in line for significant raises over their 2017 salaries. Barring some savvy salary cap maneuverings this summer, it’s quite possible the Capitals best chance to win a Stanley Cup with Ovechkin on the roster just passed them by.

More from the Metro:

  • Though many suspected the New York Rangers would land the aforementioned Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, the team instead balked at paying the higher price and made a less expensive move for fellow blue liner Brendan Smith. Like many deadline acquisitions, Smith struggled at times while settling into a new organization and adapting to a different system but the veteran blue liner found his stride in the postseason, providing much needed bite and steady play on the back end for the Blueshirts. It’s common knowledge the Rangers will attempt to upgrade the puck-moving ability and mobility on the team’s blue line but Smith showed he may be part of that solution and the Rangers might be wise to consider re-signing the pending UFA. For his part, Smith would welcome a return to Manhattan, according to Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post, saying: “I really enjoyed being here. I like the guys, the group.” After making $2.75MM in 2016-17, Smith will undoubtedly be able to generate offers in the range of $4MM annually on the open market. But at just 28 years old, re-signing Smith to a three or four-year pact at that price point might prove to be more prudent than luring the top prospective UFA blue liner, Shattenkirk, to the Blueshirts.
  • While the 2016-17 campaign will go down as a disappointing one for the Philadelphia Flyers, Dave Scott, president and CEO of the club’s parent company, Comcast Spectacor, would rather focus on the successful development of the organization’s younger players, as Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes. GM Ron Hextall has avoided quick fixes in the free agent and trade markets and instead patiently rebuilt the team, focusing on the draft-and-develop model. Even though the team failed to qualify for a postseason berth, the successful debut of prized defense prospect Ivan Provorov served notice that Hextall’s plan is beginning to bear fruit. Carchidi noted that Scott is also excited about the potential of prospects Oskar Lindblom and Mike Vecchione. It also doesn’t hurt the Flyers rebuild that Philadelphia jumped several spots in the draft lottery, snagging the #2 overall selection and the opportunity to select one of Nolan Patrick, the consensus top talent in this draft for much of the last year, or Nico Hischier to further bolster an impressive pool of young talent. If Hextall can find a competent starting goaltender, either in free agency or via trade, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Philadelphia make a huge leap in the standings in 2017-18 and qualify for the postseason.
  • The New Jersey Devils may not have enjoyed much on-ice success in 2016-17 but those struggles were mitigated at least somewhat by overcoming the odds to win the NHL draft lottery. Now the Devils will have the chance to add an impact offensive talent to a roster that badly needs more skill. But lost in the shuffle of New Jersey’s good fortune is the fact the team also has two second-round choices, their own and Boston’s courtesy of the 2016 trade deadline trade of Lee Stempniak to the Bruins. While not nearly as valuable as the first overall selection, boasting two second-round picks will give the club a chance to add two more good young players to the system. However, as Chris Ryan of NJ.com notes, Devils GM Ray Shero does not have a particularly good track record of success in the second round. Going back to his days as GM in Pittsburgh, Shero and his teams have made a total of eight choices in the second round. Of that group, Scott Harrington (#54 overall in 2011) leads the way in NHL games played (47), goals (1) and points (4). Of course it is fair to point out that Shero’s recent selections are still young enough to carve out successful big league careers. In fact, goaltender Tristan Jarry (#44 overall in 2013) would be in line to assume the understudy role in Pittsburgh, assuming the team moves Marc-Andre Fleury after the season. Still, if New Jersey’s rise back to relevance is to happen sooner rather than later, Shero would do well to find quality players with the team’s two second-rounders in June.

Jason Botterill Emerging As Front Runner For Sabres Job

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After scoring a second interview with the Buffalo Sabres, the Buffalo News’ John Vogl believes that Jason Botterill is the favorite to replace Tim Murray as general manager. Vogl reports that the Buffalo News has yet to hear if another candidate has received a second interview. As far as this writing, only Botterill has visited with the Sabres twice. From Vogl:

Buffalo has held a second interview with Botterill for its GM job, according to multiple reports Wednesday. It’s not known how many of the seven candidates are getting second looks, but The Buffalo News has learned that one has not been contacted for another talk.

That would point to Botterill as a favorite.

Vogl goes on to list several reasons why the former Buffalo forward–and Michigan graduate–could end up getting the top job. First, with a background in hockey and a degree in economics, he’s become an “expert” in salary cap analysis. Working as an assistant general manager with defending champion Pittsburgh for over a decade, he has seen first hand how to juggle high salaries while filling in the lineup with talent at a cheaper price. In addition to being the GM of the AHL affiliate Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, a team that has seen rousing success, Botterill has also helped the NHL front office with everything from scouting to player development. With a resume boasting so many rich assets, especially for a team that has seen considerable success for a decade, it’s obvious why Boterrill would be considered a “slam dunk” for the job.

The Sabres desperately need that success after being out of the playoffs for the past six seasons, despite  drafting a dominant player in Jack Eichel back in 2015. The firings of Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma led many to conclude that it was Eichel’s doing, though that story was dismissed later by Eichel. But it still makes the next coach hire tricky.

Should it be Botterill, he’s already had considerable success hiring coaches, as it was his decision to bring Mike Sullivan aboard for Wilkes-Barre. Sullivan was promoted last season to the big club, and eventually led the Pens to a Stanley Cup.

If the past is any indication of future success, Buffalo may be in for a home run hire should it be Botterill.

Metro Division Snapshots: Connolly, Kovalchuk, Rangers

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After dropping the opener of their Eastern Conference semifinal match-up against Pittsburgh, the Washington Capitals have elected to make at least one lineup change in advance of game two. According to a tweet from Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post, Paul Carey will draw into the lineup replacing Brett Connolly. As the scribe noted prior to the start of the series, Connolly had his ATOI cut back drastically in the latter half of their six-game series win over Toronto, averaging less than six minutes per contest in games four through six so perhaps a healthy scratch shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

Limited ice time is nothing new this season for Connolly. The six-year vet averaged just 10:41 per game yet managed to set a career-high in the goal scoring department with 15. In fact, among all NHL players who reached that threshold, Connolly saw the lowest ATOI per game. The lack of playing time, both during the regular season and playoffs, would appear to inject some doubt as to how interested the Capitals will be in renewing their working relationship beyond the current campaign with the former first-round draft pick. Connolly is scheduled to be a RFA and will likely seek a significant bump in pay over his 2016-17 salary of $850K based on his solid goal scoring ouput. With several key regulars – T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Justin Williams among them – approaching unrestricted free agency and with RFA’s Andre Burakovsky and Evgeny Kuznetsov also needing new contracts, the Capitals will have a difficult time re-signing or replacing all the talent they may lose with just $20MM in projected cap space. Salary cap considerations may also prompt the team to move on from Connolly this summer, meaning he might be available via trade for any interested parties.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • It’s been reported that Ilya Kovalchuk may be preparing a return to the NHL after four years of self-exile playing in the KHL. As it stands, he is still property of the New Jersey Devils, unless all 30 NHL GM’s agree to allow Kovy to sign with another team. Of course, while the Devils could certainly use the offensive boost Kovalchuk would bring, they likely aren’t close enough to serious contention to justify committing the necessary salary cap resources to an aging, albeit still skilled winger. In fact, they would benefit more by agreeing with an interested club on a sign-and-trade, which would allow Kovalchuk to go to a contending team of his choice with the Devils picking up assets needed to further their rebuild. Whether or not Kovalchuk ultimately returns to the NHL, one thing is certain; the Russian winger will not be representing Team Russia at the upcoming World Championships. According to a report from the Russian sports site SovSport.ru (link in Russian) – H/T to TSN’s Gord Miller for retweeting the link – Kovalchuk has, or will soon undergo knee surgery and is expected to miss the next month to recover. Evidently the knee was an issue throughout the KHL playoffs though it wasn’t enough to prevent Kovalchuk from helping his SKA St. Petersburg club from winning the Gagarin Cup. While he won’t have another chance to showcase his skills for interested NHL teams, it’s unlikely this injury will do much to stunt his market, should he elect to come back.
  • Newsday’s Steve Zipay retweeted a report from the Russian Prospects website indicating that coveted young winger Vladimir Tkachyov is slated to attend prospect camp this summer with the New York Rangers. It should be noted that Zipay had yet to independently confirm the report. Tkachyov, an undrafted free agent, spent last season skating with Admiral Vladivostok in the KHL, finishing with 14 goals and 39 points in 49 contests. Prior to returning to Russia, Tkachyov appeared in 66 QMJHL games split between Moncton and Quebec, tallying a combined 26 goals and 79 points. Scouting reports describe the 5-foot-10, 154-pound LW as a dynamic offensive talent and an explosive skater. Tkachyov has been linked to Toronto and Edmonton previously but at this point it looks like the Rangers may have the first chance to convince the skilled winger to join their organization. The Blueshirts interest is understandable as they favor skill and speed in their roster construction and with the lack of high draft choices in recent seasons due to sacrificing futures in pursuit of a Stanley Cup, adding a talent like Tkachyov helps the team keep the prospect pipeline producing NHL-caliber players.

Central Notes: McDonough, Seguin, Nashville – St. Louis

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Chicago Blackhawks president and CEO John McDonough is blunt in his assessment of the Blackhawks to the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus: they were steamrolled. Said to be “steaming” at their quick demise, McDonough is confident that general manager Stan Bowman can improve upon the latest first round exit for the only franchise in the salary cap era to win three Stanley Cups. Though happy with what Bowman and coach Joel Quenneville have done in the past, he tasks the Blackhawk bosses with building upon the talent that’s already there. Blackhawk fans can take solace in the fact that McDonough sees a lot of gas in the tank for a team many think may be worn out, but McDonough says that the organization is reviewing everything to make sure the Hawks fortunes are on an upward trend.

  • The Dallas Morning-News’ Mike Heika answers fans by indicating that the Stars won’t consider trading Tyler Seguin–unless they believe he’s not the right match with Jamie Benn. Heika believes that the Stars are hoping for new bench boss Ken Hitchcock to have a role in making Seguin a dominant two-way center. With an expensive contract, but still only 25 years of age, the Stars aren’t about to give up on the center. He also believes that Seguin will be motivated to take the next step as a player and sees Seguin being “very determined” to improve after fighting through injury the past few seasons.
  • It’s the battle of goaltenders when the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues meet up in the second round of the playoffs. NHL.com’s Shawn Roarke writes that the goaltending is just one of many storylines as the two Central division foes meet for the first time in playoff action. Roarke sees lead time as another factor, as both teams enjoyed leading their respective first round opponent for long stretches of time. The Tennessean’s Joe Rexrode believes the Predators should win the series,  but is far from issuing a guarantee about it. Rexrode sees St. Louis’ staunch defense giving the Preds some problems while he openly wonders if the inconsistent Predators during the regular season could return for a playoff encore, disappearing just as quickly as they appeared to remind fans why they were preseason favorites. Meanwhile, St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Jeff Gordon echoes a number of Rexrode’s insights, adding that the return of Colin Wilson for the Preds and matching Nashville’s depth serves as some difficulties St. Louis might encounter.

Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Toronto Maple Leafs Rookie Bonuses May Impact Offseason Flexibility

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Though the Toronto Maple Leafs and their crop of rookie talent has been one of the most exciting story lines this year, the impressive season each of them has had may negatively impact the team’s ability this summer. As reported by Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the team will pay out a minimum of $5.37MM in entry-level bonuses this season, most notably to Auston Matthews who earned a whopping $2.85MM extra. The team could have to pay $5.5MM should Nikita Zaitsev be named to the all-rookie team, with his main competition being the Rangers’ Brady Skjei and Flyers’ Ivan Provorov assuming Zach Werenski gets the first defenseman spot.  Nikita Zaitsev

Johnston outlined the bonuses earlier this year, noting that because the Maple Leafs finished the season roughly $178K under the cap (according to CapFriendly), more than $5MM will be carried over to next year’s cap in the form of an overage. The problem that poses is that teams must be salary cap compliant before the season starts, and before any player can be put on LTIR. Despite Stephane Robidas coming off the books for the Maple Leafs, the team still has $10.55MM tied up in Nathan Horton and Joffrey Lupul, and another $2.53MM locked up in Phil Kessel and Tim Gleason (retained salary and buyout respectively). That means nearly $20MM of the rumored ~$76MM cap will be consumed in dead money this summer for the Maple Leafs, not giving them much flexibility to improve the team.

Three of those rookies—Zach Hyman, Connor Brown and Zaitsev—will be restricted free agents this summer, and all deserve hefty raises from the sub-$1MM cap hits they had this season. Zaitsev in particular has reportedly agreed to a new deal that will pay him $4.5MM per season, eating a good chunk of the money the Maple Leafs will have to play with. With a backup goaltender and another defenseman on the shopping list, the team won’t have a lot of cap space to use in the summer, but will have a ton come the season. It’s an odd situation they find themselves in, but one their management team should be able to work their way out of. It is important to note that any team is allowed to be up to 10% over the cap at any point during the summer, but must be back down by the last day of training camp.

If there is anyone around the league who you’d be willing to bet has a way out of this situation, it’s “Loophole” Lou Lamoriello, who has made a name for decades finding ways around salary issues. After such a successful season—regardless of whether they get past the Washington Capitals in round one—the Maple Leafs will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this summer and leading up to the expansion draft. Perhaps Vegas will be one of the ways they shed a contract, making a deal with the Golden Knights to take someone like Eric Fehr off their hands. Regardless, someone will likely be moved out this summer to give them a little bit of breathing room and perhaps a chance to take a run at one of the big free agents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Friedman’s Latest: Sobotka, Salary Cap, Tkachyov, Zaitsev

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After terminating his KHL contract yesterday, center Vladimir Sobotka and the Blues are making progress on a multi-year deal that could see him rejoin the team shortly, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

The 29 year old owes the Blues one year at $2.725MM on a contract that was awarded by an arbitrator prior to the 2014-15 season.  Rather than signing it, Sobotka opted to go play with Avangard Omsk back in Russia for the past three seasons.

If he were to return this season, he could fulfill the previous contract but he would be eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer.  While St. Louis could certainly use the upgrade, that wouldn’t be the most ideal way to bring him back.  If they can come to terms on an extension, it would be a strong compromise for both sides, allowing the team to potentially get Sobotka back for the playoffs while giving him a multi-year deal at presumably a higher AAV.

As always, Friedman’s full 30 Thoughts column is worth a full read but here are a handful of the other highlights:

  • The arrival of the Golden Knights next season may have an impact on the salary cap, particularly the NHLPA’s decision to use their annual escalator at a rate of up to 5%. It has been used each year since being instituted but it has resulted in escrow increasing quickly as well, something that the players aren’t happy with.  With Vegas having some money to spend as an expansion team, the players could opt to decide that their entrance is enough of a boost to the market this summer and instead decline to artificially raise the salary cap ceiling with the escalator.
  • The NHL’s announcement that they will not stop the season to allow the players to participate in the Olympics could have an effect on the international free agent market. In particular, Friedman cites Russian forward Vladimir Tkachyov, who has received interest from the Devils, Maple Leafs, and Oilers, as someone who may now be less likely to make the jump across the pond in time for 2017-18.
  • While the rumored extension between Toronto and defenseman Nikita Zaitsev that leaked last week has yet to become official, Friedman notes that there’s no expectation that the deal will fall apart. The seven year term caught many by surprise but the team was okay going with that long of a deal in order to keep the AAV of the contract down.  Morgan Rielly, their top blueliner, has a cap hit of $5MM so it’s understandable that Toronto would want to keep Zaitsev at a lower price tag.

Ken Holland And The Red Wings Rebuild

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Two postseasons ago before he left Hockeytown for hockey’s Mecca in Toronto, head coach Mike Babcock made a blunt assessment of the Red Wings’ future following a bitter 2-0 loss in Game 7 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Babcock said this:

“Our team is not as good as it was. It’s very evident. We battled our butt off just to get in the playoffs. You are what you are. [Tampa Bay] had a young team that have been around long enough to rebuild it. They’ve got young players at key positions. Three of our best players are 34, 35, 37. Any way you look at it, we’re a team that has changed a ton of players and added a lot of youth to our lineup, but nobody on the outside picked us to be a Stanley Cup contender.”

Missing the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century didn’t come as a surprise to many in Detroit. And while Babcock has his Maple Leafs on an accelerated path for what was supposed to be a “painful” rebuild, the Red Wings find themselves older, injured, and looking on the outside of the playoffs for the first time since Steve Yzerman wore the C.

Those in Detroit hoping for a Toronto-like teardown might be disappointed, however, as general manager Ken Holland believes his team needs a few tweaks to compete again. Though this is admirable for a general manager to fight for his team, it doesn’t seem all that reasonable as the Red Wings struggled to score goals, had major players regress, and find themselves financially strapped with several long term, high priced contracts. Curiously, senior vice president Jimmy Devellano was quoted as saying “the rebuild is on” which spoke opposite to what the general manager of the club said.

Dec 3, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Detroit Red Wings left wing <a rel=Holland, who spoke with Toronto’s Fan 590 and also the Hockey News’ Ken Campbell, made it abundantly clear that he is not in it for a tear down. With only a year remaining on his contract, Holland may not view it as viable when success in Detroit is measured with Stanley Cups and playoff appearances. But the fact of the matter is that the Red Wings have been sputtering for some time. Specifically:

  • Since the retirement of Nicklas Lidstrom, the Red Wings only advanced once beyond the first round. The surprising run in 2013 that saw them squeak into the playoffs and nearly upend eventual champion Chicago seemed more of a red herring than truth when it came to the ability level of the team.
  • Elite free agents have avoided Detroit, and those who have signed were nearing the end of their career, like Daniel Alfredsson or Brad Richards. Others, like Stephen Weiss or the second go around with Mikael Samuelsson were massive miscalculations that did little to help the team and in many ways, hindered the progress of younger players.
  • Holland, who was the undisputed king of trades before the salary cap, has appeared gun shy to make moves via trade. Instead, he’s been loyal, re-signing the likes of Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Danny DeKeyser, and Jonathan Ericsson to long, expensive deals while seeing little in the way of return. Holland told Campbell that while he’ll work the phones to try and improve the team, other GMs may not “like our players or contracts.” Ironically, many of those contracts they wouldn’t like were offered to current Red Wings by Holland.

The USA Today’s Kevin Allen offered his own take and believes Detroit must rely on youth, and realize that their brand is “stale.” Allen is a non-partisan national writer without any bias to the Wings. If a pair of eyes outside the organization can see this, Holland may want to consider it.

A rebuild provides a chance to change the image of the Detroit Red Wings, which is now one without stars, on the decline, and appears resistant to change. Reading what Holland says now is nearly identical to what he’s said in the past, when the Red Wings were already showing signs of sinking.

Babcock foretold a fall for the Red Wings. Holland has a chance to change course and put the team back on an upward trajectory. But it goes beyond signing older veterans and current players in moving the Wings beyond a fringe playoff team and back into the status of contenders.

Prospect Notes: White, Stevens, Keller

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Even though Colin White signed an amateur tryout yesterday with the Ottawa Senators, it doesn’t necessarily preclude him from signing his entry-level deal this year and playing for the team down the stretch. Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia is reporting that the front office will watch him play for Binghamton this week and continue negotiations.

For what it’s worth, Garrioch guesses that White will sign an ELC once the Senators have a playoff spot locked up. With the team currently eight points up on the ninth place team, it won’t take long. Should White sign his ELC for this year, he will burn a year regardless of how many games he plays.

  • The New York Islanders have signed John Stevens from Northeastern, inking the captain to a two-year entry-level deal. The son of the Los Angeles Kings’ associate head coach, Stevens scored 28 points in 25 games in his final year. A big defensive centerman, Stevens is a possible option for a bottom-six in the NHL down the road. While he doesn’t have the high-end offensive ceiling that some of his teammates have, his game will likely translate nicely to the professional ranks.
  • CapFriendly notes that newly signed Clayton Keller will earn a $25K bonus should he play five of the last seven games for the Arizona Coyotes. Despite not actually paying a ton of salary this season, the Coyotes are actually over the salary cap and are using long-term injured reserve space. This means Keller’s bonus would appear as a penalty for next season.

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