Busy Offseason Awaits Chicago After Playoff Exit
The Chicago Blackhawks were the first team eliminated from the 2020 playoffs (obviously not counting the qualification-round losers) when they were defeated by the Vegas Golden Knights last night. An Alex Tuch third period goal proved to be the difference in game five, but the Blackhawks were surprised to even be in that situation in the first place. The expanded return to play format allowed them an opportunity to play postseason hockey despite selling off several expiring contracts at the deadline—including Robin Lehner, the winning goaltender for the Golden Knights.
Those deadline moves aren’t the only tough decisions that need to be made by the Blackhawks before the start of next season.
All of it, as it does so often, comes down to goaltending. As John Dietz of the Daily Herald tweets, the future of Corey Crawford will determine so much of the future of the Blackhawks. The 35-year-old goaltender has dealt with concussion symptoms and inconsistency but still managed to put up a .917 save percentage in 2019-20. He was the obvious choice for the Blackhawks in the qualification and first round of the playoffs, but he’s also set to become an unrestricted free agent when his six-year $36MM deal expires this fall.
Does Crawford come back to the Blackhawks—the only team he’s ever known—on a short-term deal to finish his career? What about Collin Delia, the 26-year old netminder who signed a three-year deal with the Blackhawks in 2019 only to spend this entire season in the minor leagues? Will Malcolm Subban be re-signed to serve as the NHL backup?
All of these questions are where the offseason starts for Chicago, but it won’t stop there. The team also has some extremely important restricted free agents to sign, including Calder Trophy finalist Dominik Kubalik. Unlike many other first-year players, Kubalik turns 25 in just two days and will likely be commanding a long-term deal unless the Blackhawks want to walk him into unrestricted free agency at a relatively young age. He’s already arbitration-eligible, meaning his rookie-leading 30 goals can be used as leverage against the Chicago front office.
There is also Dylan Strome, the third-overall pick from 2015 who reignited his career in Chicago. Though he certainly wasn’t as explosive as 2018-19, he still had 38 points in 58 games and will be looking for a raise of his own.
For those raises, the Blackhawks don’t have a lot of space. If Brent Seabrook comes back from injury and is ready to play, the team has over $74MM committed in salaries for next season. That doesn’t include Kubalik, Strome, or Crawford, three names that would likely eat up the remaining space under a flat $81.5MM ceiling. If that’s the situation they’re in, there may be some trades coming to free up salary.
The name that always seems to come up in those trade talks is Brandon Saad, but this summer could prove to bring about even more chatter. That’s because Saad is heading into the final year of his six-year $36MM deal and a partial no-trade clause will soon kick in. Saad was effective in the playoffs for Chicago, but with the team moving towards a new younger wave of talent is he going to be too expensive to retain?
On defense, the team has already seen what young names like Nicolas Beaudin, Adam Boqvist, and Lucas Carlsson can do. They have Ian Mitchell expected to challenge for a roster spot in training camp after signing his entry-level deal this summer, and other prospects like Dennis Gilbert and Chad Krys pushing for a chance. That means more changes could come on the blueline, which currently has five players earning at least $3.85MM (including Seabrook).
Making it through the qualification round was fun and gave the hockey world another chance to witness what Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane can do in postseason play. But make no mistake this Chicago team is changing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Central Notes: Kaprizov, Sissons, Ellis, Saad, Parayko
In a Q&A on the KHL website, Gillian Kemmerer interviewed KHL star and Minnesota Wild prospect Kirill Kaprizov, who stated he is very interested in coming over and play in the NHL.
“I mean, what can I say? The [KHL] season is still on. I have to do my best here, but I do have a great desire to move over,” said Kaprizov. “I have to focus on the ongoing season. It’s the end of the regular season—I need to get ready for the playoffs and do well so that we win our second cup in a row. There’s still a lot to be done before I have to worry about it—such as making the World Championship team. There’s still time. I’ll think about it later.”
Kaprizov is expected to be a free agent this spring and could be a key piece in the Wild’s rebuilding effort if the team can convince him to sign an entry-level deal. The 22-year-old, who was a fifth-round pick in 2015, has been one of the KHL’s biggest stars as he has 23 goals and 45 points in 44 games this year with CSKA Moscow.
- The Nashville Predators are hopeful that they might get a forward back into their lineup soon as head coach John Hynes said that the team hopes to get forward Colton Sissons back to practice after the all-star break, according to The Athletic’s Adam Vingan. The 26-year-old, out with a lower-body injury since Dec. 27, has been skating on his own. Hynes also noted that the news isn’t as good on defenseman Ryan Ellis, who still hasn’t stepped on the ice. The blueliner suffered an upper-body injury after taking a hit from Dallas’ Corey Perry on Jan. 1. However, Hynes points out that Ellis, “he is on that protocol to come back,” although he did admit he didn’t know when Ellis might start skating again.
- The Chicago Blackhawks announced they have activated Brandon Saad off of injured reserve and he is expected to play against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. The 27-year-old has missed 12 straight games with an ankle injury and hasn’t appeared in a game since Dec. 19. Saad has 11 goals and 19 points in 36 games. The winger was considered to be out until the all-star break, but practiced fully on Friday.
- NHL.com’s Lou Korac reports that the St. Louis Blues could have defenseman Colton Parayko back after the all-star break. The 26-year-old defenseman has been out since Jan. 2 with an upper-body injury. Head coach Craig Berube said that he is “pretty confident” that Parayko will be ready to return when the team gets back from break.
West Notes: Oilers, Raanta, Saad
While Edmonton is believed to be looking for help in the top six, Oilers GM Ken Holland is being cautious with the timeline for when such a move may take place. While the trade deadline is now less than six weeks away, Holland told Terry Jones of the Edmonton Sun that he expects that it will be a while before activity around the league picks up:
When it comes to the trade deadline, I think it’s still another eight to 10 games needs to be played before anything happens. I want to see what happens over the next 10 games leading to the trade deadline.
He acknowledges that it’s unlikely that they’d turn around and sell if things don’t go well over that eight-to-ten-game stretch but with so many teams within striking distance of a playoff spot, it may take the better part of the next month for some of those squads to pick which direction they’re going to go. If that is indeed the case, the Oilers may be waiting for a while yet for those reinforcements.
Elsewhere in the West:
- Coyotes goaltender Antti Raanta is expected to get the start on Saturday, notes Craig Morgan of The Athletic (Twitter link). He returned from a lower-body injury last week only to sustain another injury in his first game back. Raanta’s inability to stay healthy has hurt Arizona over the last few seasons and with Darcy Kuemper also out of action, the timing for this latest one was certainly unfortunate. Fortunately for them, at least this one didn’t keep him out for long.
- While earlier in the week, it appeared as if Blackhawks winger Brandon Saad wouldn’t return until after the All-Star break, that may not be the case. Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Saad participated in a full practice today and is questionable to play on Saturday against Toronto. There are three games left for Chicago before the break so if Saad is a possibility to play tomorrow, there’s a very good chance he’ll get into one of the other two at least.
Edmonton Oilers Interested In Chicago’s Brandon Saad
The Edmonton Oilers are not getting much offense from their other lines and desperately need help. Almost all of the team’s offense has come from their top line of Connor McDavid (22-41-63), Leon Draisaitl (22-39-61) and Zack Kassian (13-13-26). James Neal has chipped in 16 goals, but after that, the Oilers just don’t have the top-six players they need. However, the team is trying to rectify that by the trade deadline as Edmonton has shown interest in Chicago Blackhawks forward Brandon Saad, according to Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins.
The Oilers and Blackhawks might be a good match as Chicago is looking for defensive prospects, something that Edmonton is loaded with. The Oilers’ top two prospects are blueliners in Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg, although neither are likely to be included in a trade for Saad. However, the team has a number of secondary prospects that could interest Chicago, including William Lagesson, Caleb Jones and Dmitri Samorukov to name a few. Saad might make a good fit as well for Edmonton as he would slot onto the team’s second line and could shift Neal back to the right side, where he has been more successful. The only problems for Edmonton is Saad’s salary, which is at $6MM for the next two years. While the Oilers might be able to make Saad’s salary work for this year, next year’s salary could prove more challenging for the team.
Chicago, meanwhile, has $72.5MM invested in just 15 players next season with several significant free agents, including goaltenders Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford as well as forward Dylan Strome and defenseman Erik Gustafsson. The team might be willing to unload Saad in a cost-cutting effort for next season. Saad is currently out for three weeks due to an ankle injury, but should have been back on the ice for a month by the time the trade deadline rolls around.
Edmonton hopes that prospects might be enough to persuade Chicago to trade Saad as Edmonton general manager Ken Holland has shown an unwillingness to move draft picks, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
“I’ve been told the Oilers internally feel that they have given up way too many draft picks,” Friedman said on 630 CHED radio in Edmonton on Friday. “And as you look back in (their) last five drafts, in four of them, (they’ve) had holes in how many players they could take. So, I think two picks for (Taylor) Hall, that was one of the reasons why (they) didn’t want to do it.”
Friedman also suggests that the Oilers have expressed interest in Tyler Toffoli of the Kings, but Los Angeles would be looking for picks, which could be a stumbling block for the Oilers.
Brent Seabrook, Calvin De Haan Out For The Season
Friday: In an update, the Blackhawks announced that both Seabrook and de Haan have undergone successful surgery. The recovery timeline for de Haan will be four to five months, while Seabrook’s will be revealed after he undergoes additional surgeries on his hips.
Thursday: The status quo in Chicago will shift dramatically when the team returns to action. The Blackhawks have announced that two of their starting defensemen will miss the remainder of the season due to injury. Both Brent Seabrook and Calvin de Haan will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. Seabrook will also have surgery on both hips. The duo have been placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve.
This singular announcement means that one-third of the Blackhawks’ starting blue line is now out of action for the rest of the year. Seabrook and de Haan are not exactly offensive dynamos, combining for just ten points so far this year. However, their defensive presence will be missed. De Haan leads the team in both hits and blocked shots, and Seabrook is among the the best on the team in both categories as well. The pair also chew up considerable minutes, with each averaging nearly 20 minutes per game this season. While Chicago is not without hope on the back end, with Duncan Keith, Connor Murphy, Olli Maatta, sand Erik Gustafsson still present on a deep unit, but these losses will nevertheless still be felt.
Also on the sidelines for Chicago is Brandon Saad, announced as missing the next three weeks with a right ankle injury. Saad, while underwhelming so far this season, is still the Blackhawks’ second-leading goal-scorer and fifth in points on the team. With the Blackhawks already in the basement of the Central Division and now missing Saad for several weeks and Seabrook and de Haan for the rest of the year, today’s announcement will more or less mark the end of Chicago’s season, barring an unexpected boost in the absence of their established veterans.
Five Key Stories: 12/16/19 – 12/22/19
The days leading up to the NHL’s Holiday Roster Freeze are always full of potential for big moves by teams looking to make a change before a stretch of mandatory inactivity. This year did not disappoint, as the biggest target on the rental market was dealt, highlighting a busy week. Here are the five biggest stories of the past week:
Taylor Hall Traded To Arizona: The week started with a bang, as the Taylor Hall saga came to an end with a trade to Arizona. The Coyotes sent a 2020 first-round pick, a conditional 2021 third-round pick, and prospects Nate Schnarr, Nick Merkley and Kevin Bahl to the Devils. New Jersey retained half of Hall’s $6MM cap as well. Hall was the top name in the rental market this season, but many were left underwhelmed by the trade return. The asking price may have been affected by Hall’s reluctance to negotiate an extension in-season, which he has maintained since arriving in the desert. Nevertheless, the Coyotes’ acquisition could make them the favorite to win the Pacific Division this year as they pursue the franchise’s first Stanley Cup.
Ilya Kovalchuk Leaves Kings: Veteran Ilya Kovalchuk is on the move as well, but his destination is yet to be determined. He and the Los Angeles Kings came to a mutual agreement on a contract termination on Monday, with Kovalchuk clearing unconditional waivers on Tuesday. The former superstar never fit with the Kings after returning from the KHL and could be tempted to return to Russia after this failure. However, he is reportedly willing to sign a minimum deal to remain in the NHL as he too is pursuing his first Stanley Cup, without much time left in his lengthy career.
Eric Comrie, Stefan Noesen Claimed: Three players entered the waiver wire on Wednesday and two emerged on new teams. Both goaltender Eric Comrie and forward Stefan Noesen were claimed on waivers. For Comrie, he returns to the Winnipeg Jets, the team with which he began the season, after making stops with the Arizona Coyotes and Detroit Red Wings. Meanwhile, Noesen only signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins a few weeks ago, but is already on the move to the San Jose Sharks. Austin Czarnik, the most accomplished player waived on Wednesday, but also the most expensive, was not claimed and remains with the Calgary Flames.
The Injury Bug Bites: Injuries are not exactly an uncommon occurrence in the NHL, but this week in particular took a heavy toll across the league. Just how bad was it? Here is the list of players who were announced this week as being out long-term: Josh Anderson, Danny DeKeyser, Troy Terry, Derek Grant, Andrew Peeke, Ryan Murray, Darcy Kuemper, Jason Zucker, Josh Leivo, Brandon Saad, Cal Clutterbuck, Anthony Mantha, and Oliver Bjorkstrand.
Chris Snow Diagnosed With ALS: Calgary Flames Assistant General Manager Chris Snow has been diagnosed with ALS, as disclosed by his wife in a public letter. As Snow begins this difficult battle, we here at PHR wish he and his family the best this holiday season.
Blackhawks Place Brandon Saad On Injured Reserve
The Chicago Blackhawks have the least number of victories in the Western Conference and while the team is hoping it can rebound from their poor record, but they will have to do it without one of their most productive scorers as the Blackhawks announced they have placed forward Brandon Saad on injured reserve with a right ankle injury, retroactive to Dec. 19.
Saad was injured Thursday against Winnipeg when he was hit against the boards by defenseman Luca Sbisa in the second period. Saad’s leg twisted underneath him as he fell. He did not return. He could be out as long as two weeks. Saad is second on the team in goals as he currently has 11 goals this year.
The Blackhawks are expected to move Dylan Sikura into Saad’s spot on the first line next two Jonathan Toews and Dominik Kubalik. The 24-year-old winger is still looking for his first goal through 40 NHL games.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Chicago Blackhawks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Chicago Blackhawks
Current Cap Hit: $78,163,461 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Kirby Dach (three years, $925K)
F Dominik Kubalik (one year, $925K)
F Anton Wedin (one year, $925K)
D Adam Boqvist (three years, $894K)
F Dylan Strome (one year, $863K)
F Alexander Nylander (two years, $863K)
F Alex DeBrincat (one year, $778K)
Potential Bonuses
Dach: $2.5MM
Strome: $2.48MM
Nylander: $850K
Kubalik: $850K
Boqvist: $850K
DeBrincat: $33K
The Blackhawks have done quite a bit of work to bring in a number of top players on entry-level contracts over the past few years in hopes of taking a team that was loaded with high-priced, aging talent and getting them back into playoff contention. They have hit the jackpot with DeBrincat, who immediately stepped onto the ice and has been a phenomenal top-six player for the past two years, scoring 69 goals so far, including a key 41-goal season last year. The diminutive winger was passed up by many teams in the 2016 draft and has proven that his size isn’t an issue on the team. The only problem is that his entry-level deal will be up at the end of the season, meaning the Blackhawks will likely have to pay a high price to lock him up. Strome, in the meantime, has been a solid trade acquisition. The top prospect, who couldn’t seem be able to turn the corner in the pros, broke out once arriving in Chicago, putting up 17 goals and 51 points in 58 games. If he can produce at a similar level, the Blackhawks will have to offer pay up again, giving them two potential significant contracts the team will have to pay out one year from now.
Chicago also is banking on a number of their draft picks to make an impact. Dach, the third-overall pick in this year’s draft, could be an option for the team if he can prove he’s ready for NHL action now, but with a number of young forwards pushing for playing time on their roster, he’d have to dominate and prove he might be ready to assume a third-line center position. Boqvist, the team’s eighth-overall pick in 2018, will challenge for playing time as well, but could just as easily spend time in the AHL to get used to playing against adults for part of the season first. Regardless, the team has two core pieces that are close to joining the organization.
General manager Stan Bowman has also made an effort in bringing in talent from outside the organization as the team has brought in a pair of prospects over from Europe in Wedin and Kubalik. The 26-year-old Wedin broke out in his rookie season in the SHL with 14 goals, while Kubalik scored 25 goals and 57 points in 50 games in the NLA. The team also surprised a few people earlier this summer when it traded top defensive prospect Henri Jokiharju to Buffalo for Alexander Nylander. The team hopes to get Nylander going as the eighth-overall pick in 2016 has so far struggled with consistency in three AHL seasons.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Corey Crawford ($6MM, UFA)
G Robin Lehner ($5MM, UFA)
F Drake Caggiula ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, RFA)
The team did a phenomenal job of bringing in some goaltending help by stealing away UFA goaltender Lehner with a one-year, $5MM deal. That’s a steal if Lehner can produce anything close to last year’s numbers of a 2.13 GAA and .930 save percentage in 46 games. The 2018-19 Jennings and Masterton Trophy winner last year, Lehner can stabilize the Blackhawks goaltending situation, which has struggled due to concussion issues that Crawford has sustained over the past two years. Without Crawford, the team has struggled in goal. The hope is that both will be healthy this year and can share the workload, but if Crawford has trouble getting on the ice again, Chicago can now turn to Lehner. With both players down to one year remaining before unrestricted free agency, the Blackhawks can look at how both players fare this year and offer a long-term deal to the player they feel can best help them in the future.
The team may have their most challenging decision to make about Gustafsson next season. The rising defenseman put up impressive numbers in a full season last year after looking sharp in the second-half of 2017-18. The 27-year-old scored 17 goals and 60 points and if he can duplicate a season like that could find himself to be one of the most marketable UFA blueliners next year. With the Blackhawks having to hand out big contracts to DeBrincat and Strome, the team may have to move Gustafsson at the trade deadline or let him go at the end of the season for nothing.
Two Years Remaining
F Brandon Saad ($6MM, UFA)
F Zack Smith ($3.25MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1MM, RFA)
D Carl Dahlstrom ($850K, RFA)
F Dylan Sikura ($750K, RFA)
F John Quenneville ($750K, RFA)
The team has two contracts that they might want to see gone soon. The team re-acquired Saad back in 2017 in hopes of bringing back a big-time goal scorer. However, Saad hasn’t been nearly as dominant since returning, although he did rebound with a 23-goal campain last season. However at $6MM AAV, Saad could easily be a candidate to move on from when they need to free up some extra cash next offseason. Smith is in a similar situation. The team acquired Smith this summer in a swap of bad contracts as the team managed to unload Artem Anisimov. Smith, however, scored just nine goals last season in Ottawa and could have a hard time locking down a spot in the bottom-six with so many younger players pushing for playing time.
The team can only hope that some of their younger players like Sikura and the newly acquired Quenneville can contribute immediately, but both would have to take their game up a notch to prove themselves at the NHL level. Sikura, signed out of Northeastern University after the 2018 season, fared well in the AHL, but failed to register a goal in 33 games with the Blackhawks. The team also hopes that Kampf and Dahlstrom can prove themselves in their lineup.
Three Years Remaining
D Calvin de Haan ($4.55MM, UFA)
D Olli Maatta ($4.08MM, UFA)
D Connor Murphy ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM, UFA)
F Ryan Carpenter ($1MM, UFA)
G Collin Delia ($1MM, UFA)
In hopes of improving its defense, the team went out and acquired a pair of defenders in de Haan and Maatta over the summers. The Blackhawks picked up de Haan from Carolina and while he’s currently dealing with a shoulder injury and isn’t expected to start the season, he has proven to be a solid defender for years and should upgrade the team’s top-four. The team also moved some of its young forward depth by sending Dominik Kahun to Pittsburgh to get the defensive-minded Maatta. The two veteran blueliners should bolster a defense that had plenty of issues over the past few years. However, both come with significant contracts, especially if either defenseman struggles to succeed in Chicago. The team also has Murphy, who the team acquired two years ago from Arizona, who has three years remaining and has found himself a solid contributor on the team’s blueline.
The team also has acquired Shaw this summer to improve their depth in hopes of getting Chicago back in the playoffs. The former Blackhawk should add a significant presence on their bottom-six and add an element of physicality to the team. Carpenter, signed away from Vegas, should also improve the team’s bottom-six.
Four Or More Years Remaining
F Patrick Kane ($10.5MM through 2022-23)
F Jonathan Toews ($10.5MM through 2022-23)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.88MM through 2023-24)
D Duncan Keith ($5.54MM through 2022-23)
Things will likely change next season, but Chicago’s four biggest contracts haven’t changed with all of them, minus Seabrook’s, down to four more years and starting to look more and more manageable. Kane continues to amaze at age 30 as he posted 44 goals and a career-high in points with 110. His contract doesn’t even look like it’s a questionable one. The 31-year-old Toews also had a resurgent season as he tallied a career-high 35 goals and 81 points, showing that as long as he has talented players around him, he is more than capable of justifying his $10.5MM AAV.
Keith is somewhat of a different story. He’s 36 now and will be 40 when his contract ends and while there has been an evident decline, the veteran has still shown that he’s a solid defender, scoring six goals and 40 points last year and is averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time a game still. The question will be how long can Keith keep up those numbers and will his game decline even more over the next couple of years. Seabrook, however, has that extra season on his deal as he is locked up for five more years. At 34-year-old, Seabrook has seen an obvious decline that even saw his minutes drop under 20 minutes a game for the first time in his career, not a good sign when the team has him under contract until 2024. The team can only hope that he can come back and prove that he still has the skills to be a top-four defenseman.
Buyouts
None
Retained Salary Transactions
None
Still To Sign
Chicago still has one restricted free agent and must find a number that will make the youngster happy, but considering his inconsistent season, the team may have some trouble figuring out how much to pay him. Perlini, also acquired with Strome in the Nick Schmaltz trade during the season last year, struggled at first in Chicago, but finally broke out in March with eight goals and 10 points in 13 games. A one-year or bridge deal would be the most likely course of action to see whether Perlini’s late success can be duplicated. The former first-round pick from 2014 could be a major asset if Chicago can get the most out of the team.
Best Value: Lehner
Worst Value: Seabrook
Looking Ahead
The Blackhawks have done quite a bit in the last year to improve their team with the hopes of getting their veteran core back in the playoffs once again after a two-year absence. Chicago has added a bunch of veteran players and young and cheap roster additions that should be able to turn their team around. The key, of course, is the team needs their veterans to continue to thrive, while their younger players must continue to improve. On top of that, the Blackhawks must hope that a number of their roster additions can take that next step in their development and prove to be valuable to the team’s overall depth.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Rumors: Duchene, Lightning, Bargains
Seemingly every year, there is speculation that a prominent impending free agent could be the one to finally bring the “sign and trade” back to the NHL. The sign and trade is relatively self explanatory; a player re-signs with his current team to a contract negotiated with a second team that he is subsequently traded to. In the current structure of the NHL, the sign and trade could hypothetically be used to add an eighth year to a contact, as free agents are limited to a cap of seven years when negotiating with a team other than their current club. This season, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun has reopened the sign and trade discussions, this time in regards to Ottawa Senators forward Matt Duchene. LeBrun speculates that Duchene has approximately two weeks to work out an extension with the Senators before the team will be forced to shop him. Ottawa has reportedly already made an initial offer of eight years and $64MM, but Duchene is likely to be eyeing an AAV closer to $9MM per year instead of $8MM. If that counter is too rich for Senators owner Eugene Melnyk and company, the team could not afford to miss out on a the potential return for Duchene at the trade deadline.
When it comes to a sign-and-trade, things get tricky for the player, which could explain why it remains such an infrequently used device in the NHL. While the eighth year is enticing for Duchene, especially at his desired salary, signing that long-term deal means a) getting another team to first agree to that contract and b) trusting the future plans for that franchise. The last time Duchene was traded, from the Colorado Avalanche to the Senators early last season, it didn’t work out so well. Duchene may be hesitant to sign with a team for eight years simply because they can afford to acquire him this season. A sign and trade also eliminates Duchene’s opportunity to test the free agent market and potentially maximize his market value. Duchene will undoubtedly be the top center on the UFA market this summer and may wish to weigh his options rather as a first-time free agent rather than commit to another team so soon before seeing what else is out there. A sign and trade works out nicely for the Senators, as they would surely receive a better return, but finding a trade partner could be difficult and getting Duchene to go along with the plan may not happen. For these reasons, a sign and trade remains an unlikely result to the ongoing Duchene saga.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have all the makings of a true trade deadline buyer this season: they are the first-place team in the league by a considerable margin, will have upwards of $8MM in cap space by the deadline, and are facing an impending cap crunch that could begin to dismantle their roster as early as this off-season. The Lightning are in win-now mode and, with excellent odds of winning the Stanley Cup, will look to add the best reinforcements they can ahead of the deadline. However, the Lightning may struggle to make the trades typically seen by a true buyer. Tampa Bay currently has 49 players signed to professional contracts against a cap of 50, per CapFriendly. The team probably doesn’t want to hit that 50-contract mark either, as it would take them out of the college and junior free agent market this spring. This means that the Bolts cannot simply trade picks and prospects for rental players. Instead, GM Julien BriseBois will have to get creative with sending under-contract players the other way. Only two of Tampa’s 49 “pro” players are in juniors, meaning that any trades will likely send current AHL contributors to sellers and the team will effort to do so without hurting their postseason depth. At the end of the day, Tampa Bay’s trades at the deadline may end up looking more like hockey trades – player-for-player talent swaps – than you would typically see from a deadline buyer.
- Sportsnet’s Andrew Berkshire believes that there is great long-term value to be found in the current buyer’s market. Berkshire writes that the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Brandon Saad, and the Florida Panthers’ Evgeni Dadonov are among the best bargains potentially available on the market due to their recent struggles and/or under-the-radar trade status. Berkshire states that Toffoli’s value is at a career-low given his current 33-point pace for the down-and-out Kings. However, Toffoli notched 47 points just last year and has 20+ goals in three of the past four seasons. The two-way forward also has a palatable $4.6MM cap hit and could be a buy-low candidate that blows up with a change of scenery. Similarly, Berkshire believes that Saad’s value is still low after bottoming out last season. He has rebounded this season, but is still on pace to fall short of the 50+ points that used to come consistently for him. At $6MM AAV for two more years, Saad’s contract isn’t egregious but is a strain for the cap-strapped Blackhawks. They could be enticed to sell low on the power forward and could very well end up on the wrong side of a Saad trade for the third time. Conversely, Berkshire believes that the Panthers are happy with Dadonov and would be reluctant to move him, but may feel pressured to sell at the deadline despite few obvious rental pieces. The play-making winger is quietly on his way to another 65-point season or better and with one year left on his contract at just $4MM, is already a bargain and could be even better elsewhere. Florida won’t give him up easily, but considering the upside that Dadonov has shown, he could still prove to be a steal even with ample trade capital going the other way.
Central Notes: Predators, Saad, Kane, Schenn, Niederreiter
With the recent re-signing of goaltender Pekka Rinne to a new extension with a no-movement clause, the Nashville Predators are likely to be heavily scouted over the next couple of years by the Seattle expansion team, who are expected to have their own expansion draft in 2020, assuming everything goes as planned. If that’s the case, then the Predators might be forced to expose young goaltender Juuse Saros in the expansion draft if they can’t convince Rinne to waive his NMC.
In a mailbag series, The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required) writes that with the expansion rules expected to be the same as Vegas, the Predators will likely be expected to protect all four of their top defensemen (assuming Roman Josi agrees to an extension), which might limit the amount of forwards they can protect down the road, suggesting that Seattle will either get a top-rated goaltender (in Saros or a willing Rinne) or receive a top-end forward to jumpstart their new franchise.
- Chicago Blackhawks forward Brandon Saad has had a rough go of it this week in practice. He took a puck to the face in practice Wednesday that required a lengthy trip to the dentist, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required). Now, Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus reports that Saad then injured his arm in practice Friday, forcing him to miss today’s game and he is considered day-to-day for Monday’s game at Carolina.
- Sticking with the Blackhawks, Lazerus also points out that new head coach Jeremy Colliton has already pressed Patrick Kane into a big role. Already the biggest leader in minutes on the forward line, Kane played the most he’s ever played in a regular-season game, a record 27:43 Thursday against Carolina. He followed that up with 24:33 against Philadelphia Saturday. “It’s fun,” Kane said. “It’s always fun coming back to the bench after a shift and hearing your name called up for the next shift to go out. It’s exciting. I like it, it gets me into the game, too. I’ve actually been trying to figure out how to get that excitement and energy into my game in the first and second period, because there’s some crazy stats where I’ve got way more goals this year in the third period than any other period.”
- It looks like St. Louis Blues center Brayden Schenn will miss his third-straight game Sunday with what is believed to be a strained oblique muscle, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He did practice Saturday, suggesting he’s getting closer to a return. “I would say that he’s doubtful for tomorrow, but encouraging that he’s getting closer,” coach Mike Yeo said. “He looked good in practice today. I talked to him afterward. We just have to make sure we’re smart.”
- The Minnesota Wild’s Nino Niederreiter finally broke a 27-goal scoring streak Thursday when he scored his first goal of the season and was quick to point out that staying positive was the most challenging thing for him while waiting out that streak. He said the mental challenges were taxing on him and his play, according to the StarTribune’s Sarah McLellan. “That’s the toughest thing, staying positive in those moments,” Niederreiter said. “But it makes it a lot easier that we’ve been doing well, and as long as the team is winning, it makes it a lot easier. But it was definitely frustrating at some points.”