Morning Notes: O’Reilly, Maple Leafs, De Haan
The Buffalo Sabres held their locker clean out today after another season where they find themselves at the very bottom of the standings. The Sabres will have the best chance at selecting first overall in the upcoming draft, but that didn’t cheer up Ryan O’Reilly, who spoke candidly about how he has struggled with morale this season. O’Reilly is quoted in John Vogl’s piece for the Buffalo News:
We’re stuck in this mindset of just being OK with losing. I feel it, too. I think it’s really crept into myself. Over the course of the year, I’ve lost myself a lot, where it’s just kind of get through, just being OK with just not making a mistake. That’s not winning hockey at all, and it’s crept into all of our games.
It’s disappointing. It’s sad. I feel throughout the year I’ve lost the love of the game multiple times. You need to get back to it because it’s just eating myself up and eats the other guys, too. It’s just eating us up, and it’s tough.
The Sabres have finished out of the playoffs for the last seven seasons, and haven’t had any real postseason success in over a decade. With a rookie coach and GM in Phil Housley and Jason Botterill, things will have to turn around quickly if they want ownership to stick with them long-term. Jack Eichel will begin his $80MM contract extension next season, while O’Reilly still has five years at $7.5MM left on his deal. Those two will have to be the key members of any bounce back, though they’ll certainly need some help along the way.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs will carry $2.55MM in bonuses over to next season according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, who notes that they also have close to $21MM coming off the books this summer. Interestingly, that bonus number could still increase by another $2MM should Auston Matthews take home the Conn Smythe trophy. The Maple Leafs will have a reduced amount of cap room because of it, and plenty of decisions to make on unrestricted free agents like James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov.
- Calvin de Haan would welcome a return to the New York Islanders according to Andrew Gross of Newsday, but is aware of the lack of defensemen on the free agent market this summer. de Haan’s season ended in December after just 33 games, which clouds his future considerably. At one point (including on our Midseason UFA Power Rankings) he looked like he was set to hit the market as one of the best defensemen available. Now, it’s entirely unclear if he’ll be able to secure a long-term deal at all.
East Notes: Matthews, Zuccarello, Elliott
Last summer, the Oilers wasted little time locking up center Connor McDavid to a max eight-year extension worth $100MM. Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews and Jets winger Patrik Laine are eligible to ink their second contracts as of July 1st but Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos suggests (video link) that Toronto, in particular, may not be as eager to get something done as soon as possible. He notes that wingers Mitch Marner (also eligible for an extension in July) and William Nylander (RFA) also need new deals and that signing Matthews may create a domino effect for those two. If they are indeed concerned about that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a possible new deal for Matthews wait until later in the offseason.
More from the East:
- Although he was frequently speculated as someone who could be dealt before the trade deadline, Rangers winger Mats Zuccarello acknowledged to Justin Tasch of the New York Daily News that he still expects to be with the team next season. The 30-year-old has one year left on his contract after this one at a team-friendly cap hit of $4.5MM. However, given where New York is in their rebuilding phase, there remains a good chance that he could be dealt in the summer.
- Flyers goaltender Brian Elliott was not in uniform for today’s overtime victory over the Bruins but Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post notes that the team is hopeful that he will get into at least one game this week, if not two as he works his way back from abdominal surgery. His return would give them stability between the pipes heading into the postseason as acquisition Petr Mrazek has been inconsistent while veteran Michal Neuvirth is also banged up once again after suffering a lower-body injury back on Wednesday against Colorado.
NHLPA Approves Proposed Changes To Lottery Odds
In what has become an annual event, the NHL Players’ Association has yet again approved changes to the NHL Draft lottery odds. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the NHLPA today signed off on a new lottery set-up recently submitted by the league. It marks the third season in a row that the odds have been altered.
The percentage chance that a team is selected to pick first, second, or third, as expressed by the number of ping pong balls present in the lottery draw, is dependent on where they finish in the overall league standings. Unsurprisingly, the changes to the odds first agreed upon in the Collective Bargaining Agreement began with the Edmonton Oilers and the painful realization that they had won yet another lottery in 2015 and would move up in the draft order to select Connor McDavid as their fourth first overall pick in a six year span. In response, the league significantly boosted the odds in 2016 toward the teams finishing last winning the lottery – expecting that Edmonton would no longer be in that range – as LeBrun notes that the 30th-place team had 20% odds of picking first two years ago. After the worst team in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs, retained the top pick that year and selected Auston Matthews, the league and NHLPA again agreed to lessen the odds and insert more chance (and excitement) into the lottery. LeBrun indicates that last year the league’s worst, the Colorado Avalanche, had an 18% chance of holding on to the top pick. However, in a wild turn of events, three teams outside the bottom four won the lottery and moved into the top three draft slots, the biggest shift being the Philadelphia Flyers, who narrowly missed the playoffs, picking second. So, to perhaps combat another clean sweep, the odds have again been increased for those toward the bottom
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the new odds of selecting first for the upcoming 2018 NHL Draft will be 18.5% for 31st, 13.5% for 30th, and 11.5% for 29th. With the addition of an extra non-playoff team, there is also a new distribution which in fact increases the odds for the last team to miss the playoffs, the 17th-place finisher, by a tenth of a percent to 1%. This is accomplished by lessening the odds for the middle-of-the pack lottery teams. It may not be a coincidence that the Oilers are part of that group. Nor may it be a coincidence that the current bottom three – the Buffalo Sabres, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes – are all teams that have been struggling for years and would certainly appreciate retaining their high picks. This yearly change in draft lottery odds seems to be very responsive to the results of each prior lottery, but that isn’t a bad thing. So long as both the league and NHLPA agree, it’s safe to assume that the changes have the best interests of competitive balance in mind.
Injury Notes: Laine, Matthews, Tarasenko
The Winnipeg Jets have avoided a crushing blow after Patrik Laine was forced from their game after blocking a shot. Laine isn’t expected to miss a lot of time with the injury, if any at all.
The young sniper is having an outstanding season, but fell one behind Alex Ovechkin last night for the league-lead in goals. Though winning the Maurice Richard trophy would obviously be a nice prize, he and the rest of the Jets have their sights set on an even bigger trophy. The Jets are fighting through injuries to several of their key players, but are still one of the favorites in the Western Conference as the playoffs approach.
- Auston Matthews, the only player selected ahead of Laine in the 2016 draft, is also nearing a return for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The young center proclaimed himself ready to go after a 10-game layoff due to a shoulder injury, but head coach Mike Babcock wouldn’t go that far. The final decision on Matthews and Nikita Zaitsev for Thursday’s game will come after the morning skate, but both seem poised to return to the lineup.
- Vladimir Tarasenko is expected miss his second straight game with an upper-body injury, during a crucial time for the St. Louis Blues. The team is entering must-win territory with their last ten games as they sit three points back of the final wildcard spot with two additional teams between them and a playoff spot. That’s a tough hill to climb with so few games remaining, and losing Tarasenko is especially damaging. The 26-year old has had a down year by his standards, but is still second on the club with 58 points.
Snapshots: Matthews, Johnson, Bishop, Mittelstadt
It’s quite rare that there could be an upside to a team losing their top player but in the case of the Maple Leafs and center Auston Matthews, that may actually be the case. James Mirtle of The Athletic (subscription required) examines the pending benefit to Toronto’s salary cap for next season that has come about due to Matthews’ injuries. Due to the number of games he has missed, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that he will reach his $2MM Schedule B bonus and with the Leafs fully using long-term injury reserve, that’s essentially $2MM that they were expecting to have on their salary cap next season that shouldn’t be there now. That type of extra flexibility should come in handy this offseason.
Elsewhere around the league:
- The Kings have inked 2014 fourth-rounder Steve Johnson to a minor league tryout agreement, notes Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider (Twitter link). Johnson just wrapped up his four-year NCAA career with the University of Minnesota and collected three goals and 12 assists in 38 games this past season. Los Angeles has until August 15th to sign him to an NHL contract or lose his rights so it appears that they will use these next few weeks to help determine if he’s worth signing to an entry-level deal.
- Stars netminder Ben Bishop indeed reinjured his left knee on Sunday against Winnipeg, Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News notes via Twitter. He missed five games earlier this month due to the issue and while he was initially expected to be re-evaluated in two weeks, Heika reports that a better idea of his timeline to recovery should be known on Thursday.
- The Sabres expect to get a better idea of winger Casey Mittelstadt’s plans by the end of the week, reports Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. Buffalo is hopeful that he will be willing to turn pro instead of going back to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore year and might be willing to burn the first year of his entry-level deal now in order to get him to sign. It will be interesting to see if today’s earlier news of long-time head coach Don Lucia departing the Golden Gophers will play a role in Mittelstadt’s decision.
Minor Transactions: 03/19/18
Another week has passed in the NHL and we’re down to the final ten games for most of the teams around the league. With just a few weeks left teams like St. Louis and Los Angeles are still fighting for their playoff lives while others like Detroit and Vancouver are doing their best to secure a top draft pick. We’ll likely see several young players make their debuts this week, while other teams will welcome back some injured veterans just in time for the playoffs. As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves right here.
- Filip Chlapik is back up in Ottawa, as the Senators have recalled 20-year old forward and assigned Jim O’Brien back to the minor leagues. Chlapik is still looking for his first NHL goal after 10 games with the big club this season, but does have 30 points in 50 games during his rookie season in the AHL. The second-round pick will be in competition for a full-time job on the team at camp next season, and can give himself a leg up by playing well down the stretch.
- The Buffalo Sabres have completed a paper transaction for Justin Bailey, who was only sent down to the minor leagues yesterday. Bailey is back up with the club after being recalled today, and should stay in the lineup for the time being. Bailey, 22, has four points in 10 games for the Sabres this season.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have sent Garret Sparks back to the AHL, likely indicating that Frederik Andersen will return for Tuesday’s game against the Lightning. Andersen is on track to return after a short injury period, along with star forward Auston Matthews. The Maple Leafs will welcome back their best two players while on a four-game winning streak, but still sit five points behind the Boston Bruins for second place in the Atlantic Division.
- Similarly, Charlie Lindgren has been sent back to the AHL now that Carey Price is set to return for the Montreal Canadiens. Though Price won’t start right away, his return to health means Lindgren had to go back as he was on an emergency recall.
- After the latest injury to Dallas Stars goaltender Ben Bishop, the team has recalled Mike McKenna once again. Dallas is struggling to stay in the playoff picture in the Western Conference, and will now have to rely on Kari Lehtonen once again to get them into the postseason.
- Tristan Jarry has been sent back to the AHL, meaning Matt Murray will be ready to go for the Pittsburgh Penguins in short order. Murray hasn’t played in nearly a month, but could give the team a huge boost heading into the postseason. For now, Casey DeSmith will remain as the other goaltender in Pittsburgh, though Jarry could be recalled at any time.
- Dillon Simpson has been recalled under emergency conditions for the Edmonton Oilers, which could result in the 25-year old’s first NHL games of the season. Simpson has played the entire year at the AHL level, recording 17 points in 56 games. A fourth-round pick, Simpson hasn’t ever been able to crack the Oilers lineup full-time.
- Tim Heed is up once again for the San Jose Sharks, who have also activated Joel Ward from injured reserve today. Ward hasn’t played since February 8th, and could be a big boost to the bottom-six for a San Jose team looking ready to compete for the Stanley Cup once again. The Sharks sit second in the Central Division after their latest four-game win streak, and could be one of the toughest outs in the Western Conference once the playoffs begin.
- The Calgary Flames have recalled Rasmus Andersson, but find themselves in an opposite situation from the Sharks. Calgary has gone 3-6-1 in their last ten games and find themselves out of the playoff picture. Though they’re not out of it entirely, they need a spark to turn things around immediately.
Morning Notes: Player Poll, Draft Lottery, Matthews
The NHLPA released its annual Player Poll, where it asks members to vote on a variety of things from fastest skater to best role model. Sidney Crosby‘s name was understandably everywhere, leading categories like “most difficult to play against” and even getting some love in the top player of all-time.
Interestingly, the players were also asked which coach they would most like to play for and Joel Quenneville came out on top. With things deteriorating in Chicago, many have wondered whether Quenneville would be back in 2018-19 for the Blackhawks. If the player’s opinions mean anything, there is certainly still an appetite for him to be behind the bench.
- The NHL Draft Lottery is a huge event these days, and with Rasmus Dahlin the top prize the draw will be just as exciting as ever. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that the unofficial date that’s being considered is April 28th, which would be less than eight weeks from now. Remember, three non-playoff teams will be selected to move up in the draft, and while the worst team has the best chance, it’s still more likely that someone else takes home the first-overall pick.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs are reeling recently, dropping four straight games and looking disjointed without their top forward on the ice. Luckily, the team welcomed Auston Matthews back to the beginning of practice today according to Kristen Shilton of TSN, though he remained in a non-contact sweater. Matthews had completed some work before practice by himself, and is getting closer to a return from the injury that he suffered against the Islanders on February 22nd.
Snapshots: Maple Leafs Future, McDonagh, Price, Ferland
While armed with top talent to make a Stanley Cup run now, the Toronto Maple Leafs will also have quite a few decisions to make after this season. For purposes of their playoff run, the team held onto its two key unrestricted free agents in Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk. However, there is an extreme likelihood the team will move on from those two after the season. The team’s salary cap will continue to tighten over the next couple of years, especially with the pending extensions of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. In fact, all three could be extended this summer, although Nylander is the only one who will be a restricted free agent when the offseason begins.
Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star writes that its unlikely either Bozak or van Riesmdyk will return. Bozak is especially unlikely as he will be highly coveted by teams that are in need of a center and might overpay to sign him, something that Toronto cannot afford to do. Van Riemsdyk is another player, who puts up lots of goals, but lacks in other areas and McGran writes that he could see coach Mike Babcock wanting to move on as well.
What other options are out there? One legitimate possibility would be for the Maple Leafs to go out and sign KHL star and former NHLer Ilya Kovalchuk. The 34-year-old winger might be a perfect replacement for van Riemsdyk and would be much cheaper. Kovalchuk is coming off his best two seasons in the KHL as well as leading Russia to a gold medal and winning the MVP award at the Olympics a couple of weeks ago.
McGran also mentions Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau‘s former teammate and buddy would be an interesting possibility to replace Bozak. While he’s coming off a tough injury, Thornton would provide the team with more leadership and experience. Russian defenseman Igor Ozhiganov of CSKA Moscow has also been linked to the Maple Leafs. Among the top in-house candidates, McGran points to wingers Andreas Johnsson and Carl Grundstrom along with centers Miro Aaltonen and Frederik Gauthier as players who could fill out Toronto’s line next season. The team should also have some defensive depth options in Calle Rosen, Andreas Borgman and Timothy Liljegren.
- Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that while the Tampa Bay Lightning attempted to pry defenseman Erik Karlsson from Ottawa at the trade deadline, the acquisition of defenseman Ryan McDonagh was hardly a fallback option. The general belief is that McDonagh might prove to be a better fit within the Lightning system. McDonagh, who might be ready to play in Tuesday’s game against the Florida Panthers, is considered to be the better shutdown guy who has the more well-rounded game than Karlsson. “McDonagh is one of the most well-rounded defensemen in the league,” said two-time Stanley Cup-winning defenseman Brian Engblom, the Lightning’s Fox Sports Sun color analyst. “He’s a No. 1 on any team — a 1A-1B with Victor Hedman, and that’s only because Victor is Victor. (McDonagh) thinks about the right net first. “That doesn’t mean he’s not good passing the puck or making plays. He can play in any situation. He’s really mobile, really smart. He covers up a lot of mistakes by other people. He’s pretty much everything you want to list in an all-around defenseman.”
- Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price skated for the first time since suffering a condition on Feb. 22, according to TVA Sports Renaud Lavoie. While he still has a ways to go, the hope is that Price will be able to practice with the team soon. Price has had a tough season as the 30-year-old has struggled with injuries. He has a 2.98 GAA and a .904 save percentage, which is not great for a goalie whose eight-year, $84MM extension kicks in next season.
- Postmedia’s Kristen Anderson writes that Calgary Flames winger Micheal Ferland will return to action on Monday on the team’s top line against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Ferland, who is having a breakout season, has missed the last four games with an undisclosed injury. He has 20 goals and 14 assists this season, a career-best.
Injury Notes: Bortuzzo, Mason, Matthews
The St. Louis Blues are getting some reinforcements on the blue line, as they have activated Robert Bortuzzo from the injured reserve. Bortuzzo has been sidelined for more than two weeks with a knee injury suffered against the Dallas Stars back in mid-February. The big defenseman had played in 55 games with the Blues up to that point and should jump back into the starting lineup sooner rather than later. According to The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford, that could even be tonight in a re-match with the Stars with crucial divisional points on the line. The Blues then take four days off ahead of a season-defining road trip against Western wild card contenders: San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, and Colorado. If St. Louis is still alive in the playoff race after these next five games, they could look forward to another addition on defense in the return of Joel Edmundson. In the meantime, Bortuzzo will be looked upon to step up in his return.
- Another Central Division squad is getting deeper at a key position. After nearly two months of dealing with concussions symptoms, Steve Mason is on his way back to the Winnipeg net and just in time for the stretch run. The Jets announced today that they have assigned Mason to their AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose, on a conditioning stint. The Moose in turn announced that Mason will get the start tonight against the Iowa Wild. With just 11 appearances and two head injuries to his name this season, Mason may need some time in the minors to get back in the swing of things and a week plus in the AHL would not be a surprise, but he will eventually make his return to Winnipeg. However, his role has changed dramatically over the course of this season. Signed to a two-year, $8.2MM starter-value contract this summer to presumably bridge the gap to Connor Hellebuyck, Mason instead has performed poorly and missed considerable time, while Hellebuyck has flourished. Mason will settle for a backup role down the stretch, supplanting Michael Hutchinson, and likely next year as well.
- Auston Matthews isn’t quite ready to return to the Toronto lineup, but he is getting closer. Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston, in speaking with Leafs head coach Mike Babcock, says that Matthews has been skating regularly. Johnston adds that the fortunate part of an upper-body injury, in this case a separated shoulder, is that it doesn’t stop one from skating and keeping up with his conditioning. Matthews is known for his work ethic and has surely been skating hard while on the sidelines. Whenever the Leafs’ doctors give his shoulder the okay, he should be back at full force for Toronto. Sadly, that approval won’t be coming ahead of today’s outdoor game between the Leafs and Washington Capitals at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. Matthews will miss his fourth straight game and fourteenth game due to injury in 2017-18.
Snapshots: Vanek, Tavares, Matthews
Thomas Vanek is probably the most likely player to be traded from the Vancouver Canucks in the next few days, and yet there remains a chance he could re-sign with the team instead. Speaking with Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet, Vanek explained he’d love to play another year with Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but they haven’t given him an answer about their future yet.
Obviously, there is also the option of trading him this weekend only to re-sign him in the summer when he becomes a free agent. Vancouver already brought back Erik Gudbranson, their other top rental option, and don’t seem poised to really be big sellers at the deadline. Vanek brought in a third-round pick last season for the Detroit Red Wings, and could likely fetch a similar price if Vancouver decides to shop him around.
- After Josh Bailey was re-signed to a six-year contract this morning, many pointed out how it might help the New York Islanders re-sign his linemate John Tavares. The Islanders were making it clear that they wanted to keep this group together and were committed to winning. Not so fast, says John Shannon of Sportsnet, who tweets that the signing will “not have any effect” on the Tavares negotiations, and that the captain will still wait until after the season is over to make a decision.
- Auston Matthews suffered damage to his shoulder last night, and will be out for “a bit” according to head coach Mike Babcock. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet details how the Toronto Maple Leafs plan on dealing with the loss of their superstar center, and notes that the team will not change their approach to the trade deadline.