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Andreas Johnsson

Minor Transactions: 01/23/19

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Six games will finish up the unofficial first half of the season before teams break for the All-Star game in San Jose this weekend. Among those six is a must-see matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Nashville Predators, two teams battling for position in the Western Conference. It’s never a love affair when these clubs get together, and with a little extra time off after the game you can bet every player will leave it all on the ice tonight.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have recalled Trevor Moore under emergency conditions and will insert him into the lineup tonight over Andreas Johnsson. Johnsson suffered a concussion recently and will take the break to try and recover.
  • Christian Wolanin and Rudolfs Balcers have been returned to the minor leagues by the Ottawa Senators in order for them to continue playing over the break. It will also save the Senators some money given they’re on two-way contracts.
  • Similarly, the Calgary Flames have returned Juuso Valimaki and Andrew Mangiapane to the Stockton Heat for at least a few days, giving the young players a chance to stay fresh.
  • The San Jose Sharks have done the same by sending Dylan Gambrell and Jacob Middleton back to the minors, neither of whom are seeing much time in the NHL anyway.
  • The Colorado Avalanche have one more game tonight and have recalled Ryan Graves for it, sending Anton Linholm back down. Graves has impressed during his short stint with the Avalanche and may get a longer look in the second half of the season.
  • Marek Mazanec is on his way back to the minor leagues while Dustin Tokarski has been recalled. This was done in order to have both Mazanec and Alexander Georgiev in the minors over the break, meaning Tokarski will likely be on his way back down in a few days.
  • The Detroit Red Wings announced that defenseman Filip Hronek is headed back to the Grand Rapids Griffins. The rookie blue liner has looked good in 23 NHL games this season and even better in 20 AHL games. He’ll spend some time in the minors while Detroit is on a break to keep the momentum of his season going.
  • Both Devon Toews and Michael Dal Colle are on their way down to the AHL, as the Islanders have opted to give them some work over the bye week. Both players have double-digit games played for the surging Isles this season and have carved out roles for themselves recently, despite having just four NHL games between them prior to this season. The Bridgeport Sound Tigers will be happy to have the two talented player back in the lineup for a short time.

Andreas Johnsson Out With Concussion

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If you were a team holding onto a defensive asset hoping the Toronto Maple Leafs would come calling at the trade deadline, one of your biggest targets may have just been knocked out of the lineup. Andreas Johnsson, one of the Maple Leafs’ young forwards that has speculated as a potential trade chip this season has been ruled out of Wednesday’s action with a concussion suffered in last night’s game against the Arizona Coyotes. Johnsson was hit by Niklas Hjalmarsson in the corner and did not return to the game.

Johnsson, 24, is in his first full season in the NHL after winning the Calder Cup playoff MVP last year. The Swedish forward has 22 points in 43 games while bouncing up and down the lineup, seeing time beside Auston Matthews of late. TSN’s Frank Seravalli had recently listed Johnsson at #24 on his Trade Bait board, just behind fellow Maple Leafs forward Kasperi Kapanen. Both players are pending restricted free agents and could be cut loose given Toronto’s upcoming cap crunch.

For now though, the Maple Leafs will have to operate without Johnsson in the lineup and find out a way to get back on the right track. The team has lost four of five games and is loosening their grasp on the second spot in the Atlantic Division. If that sparks action in the front office, it’s unclear whether they would be able to get full value for Johnsson now that he is out indefinitely with the second reported concussion of his North American career.

Maple Leafs Still Seeking Right-Shot Defenseman

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are undoubtedly one of the top contenders for the Stanley Cup this season, but many would agree that they face an uphill battle if they don’t improve their defense corps. For years, the right side of the defense has been an issue in Toronto and nothing has changed. Nikita Zaitsev and Igor Ozhiganov are the only right-shot defenders that play regularly for the Maple Leafs and the former has struggled all season long – to the point that the team is actively shopping him and his lengthy contract – and the latter is still adjusting to an NHL pace of play. The only other righty on the blue line is Justin Holl, who is scoreless in two games so far this season as a total non-factor. Toronto needs more production, better checking, and all around more cohesion among their defensemen and it all starts with fixing the right side.

It comes as no surprise then that Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reports that the team is still actively scouring the market for a solution on the right side, preferably a top-four caliber defender. Kypreos again mentions the St. Louis Blues’ Alex Pietrangelo, a player that the Maple Leafs were linked to earlier this season, as a possibility, but questions his availability. Colleague Elliotte Friedman also mentions Los Angeles Kings’ off-side lefty Jake Muzzin and Philadelphia Flyers’ bruiser Radko Gudas as options. The problem, and one addressed by Kypreos, is that the prices are high on these top right-side defensemen with term remaining on their contracts and he believes that the Maple Leafs are unwilling to part with young roster forwards like Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson or top blue line prospect Rasmus Sandin to get a deal done. Kypreos lists the team’s first-round pick and AHL defensemen Timothy Liljegren and Calle Rosen as their top bargaining chips, but that likely will not be enough to land one of the top long-term defensemen on the market.

The prices will be lower on the rental market, but the options are also less appealing. The best right-handed defensemen who are impending free agents all belong to top contenders – Erik Karlsson, Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Tyler Myers – and even some of the more moderate options play for teams not looking to sell, such as the Golden Knights’ Deryk Engelland and the Bruins’ Steven Kampfer. If the Leafs feel adding a solid, stay-at-home righty would give them the boost they desire, the New Jersey Devils’ Ben Lovejoy or the New York Rangers’ Adam McQuaid would both be serviceable options. If they instead want a puck-mover, they could try to pry Nick Jensen from the Detroit Red Wings or Taylor Fedun from the Dallas Stars, but neither are guaranteed to be available. There simply isn’t a great market right now at right-shot defense, typical of the position that has become one of the most valuable in hockey due to scarcity. It may be the one piece that the Maple Leafs need to put them over the top, but making a deal is going to be easier said than done.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Toronto Maple Leafs

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With the holiday season now here, PHR continues its look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads towards the midway mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Click here for the other articles in this series. 

What are the Maple Leafs most thankful for?

Scoring and lots of it. Despite some injuires and a holdout, very little has slowed down an incredible offense. The team knew once it brought John Tavares on board this summer how good their offense would be and that has been the case as the team is ranked second in the league in scoring behind rival Tampa Bay, averaging 3.79 goals per game. That number has allowed the team the ability to put up the second-best record in hockey (behind rival Tampa Bay) with a 26-10-2 record. The team has already got six players with 10 goals or more, while another four players have seven goals or more. While many of those goal scorers have been their stars, the team has gotten impressive play from a number of unexpected players, including Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson and Tyler Ennis.

Who are the Maple Leafs most thankful for?

The easy answer could be John Tavares with his 26 goals or Auston Matthews, who has 35 points in just 24 games, but surprisingly, the team’s points’ leader this year has been Mitch Marner, who has 13 goals and 40 assists this season. Those 53 points has him ranked fifth in the NHL and a suggestion that he’s headed for an even bigger season this year and if he can keep those numbers up is likely headed for a 100-point season for the team.

Marner is quickly finding himself among elite company. He is the first Maple Leaf to begin his career with 40 or more assists in three consecutive seasons, something that only five active NHL players have been able to do, including Sidney Crosby, Niklas Backstrom, Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin and Alex Ovechkin. No complaints in Toronto, however, as the team is trying to compete for a Stanley Cup championship this year. Marner’s play is exactly what they need to hopefully win a title.

What would the Maple Leafs be even more thankful for?

The team still needs to get William Nylander back on track. The 22-year-old ended his holdout on Dec. 1 after agreeing to a six-year, $45MM deal. However, Nylander has far from been a big hit since returning to Toronto’s lineup this year. The center has appeared now in 10 games for the Maple Leafs and still hasn’t registered a goal, posting just two assists so far. The team has moved him down to the third line and hopes that he will figure out a way to find his offense prowess. He is coming off a 20-goal season a year ago, but that holdout seems to have stalled that progress. If the team can get him going, it will only further improve their offense.

What should be on the Maple Leafs’ Holiday Wish List?

Some extensions. The team has several contracts to deal with this summer and after dealing with a long, drawn-out holdout from Nylander, Dubas and the Maple Leafs have to hope they can lock up their two top restricted free agents in Matthews and Marner. If the team can lock either of them up during the season, that could help set up the team’s long-term cap situation early which could allow Dubas to find more flexibility to add talent at the trade deadline.

The team has a number of other free agents to deal with as well. The team also has restricted free agents Kapanen and Johnsson on their list of players to lock up as well as unrestricted free agent defensemen Jake Gardiner and Ron Hainsey to deal with as well. The more they can accomplish during the season, the better for a team with a tricky cap situation.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Injury Notes: Dumba, Hyman, DeMelo

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It’s not good news leaking out of Minnesota, as Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) reported last night that Mathew Dumba could be out “anywhere from weeks to months” with a “significant” injury. Russo even goes so far as to suggest that Dumba’s season could be at risk if he needs surgery, a determination that has not been made yet (Update: Dumba will indeed have surgery to correct the upper-body injury and will be out long-term)

Dumba, 24, has been on fire through the first two months of the season, recording 12 goals and 22 points through 32 games. That outstanding start comes on the heels of a career-high 50-point campaign in 2017-18, one that put Dumba on the map as an all-around offensive force from the blue line. Armed with a lethal point shot from the day he entered the league, the seventh-overall pick from 2012 has improved his breakouts and creativity through the neutral zone. Losing him would leave a big hole on the right side for the Wild, who are fighting to stay relevant in the Central Division playoff race.

  • Missed in the Toronto Maple Leafs annihilation of the Florida Panthers last night was the loss of Zach Hyman, ruled out before the game due to an ankle injury suffered earlier this week. The team quietly revealed that Hyman will be out for at least three weeks, leaving the Maple Leafs searching for another forward to fill his spot next to John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Andreas Johnsson was that lucky forward last night, but it’s not clear if the role will be his for the entire three weeks.
  • It won’t be just Matt Duchene that returns for the Ottawa Senators tonight, as Dylan DeMelo has also been activated off injured reserve and will be in the lineup when the team takes on the New Jersey Devils. DeMelo hasn’t played since December 8th, and was just starting to really come into his own for the Senators. After averaging just over 18 minutes a night through his first 20 games for the team, DeMelo had recently seen that number jump to almost 21 and a half per game while holding down added responsibilities. The 25-year old was part of the package received for Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks, and could potentially be a trade deadline target given his extremely inexpensive contract. DeMelo carries just a $900K cap hit through next season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Lock Up William Nylander For Six Years

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The long-awaited saga between William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs is finally at an end. The Toronto Maple Leafs announced they have signed the holdout restricted free agent to a six-year, $45MM deal, according to CapFriendly. Nylander is expected to be on a plane from Stockholm to Toronto within 10 hours.

“We always tried to stay optimistic,” said general manager Kyle Dubas (via TSN’s Kristin Shilton). “We had our process and we have a great staff…it wasn’t really an emotional experience. It’s my duty to the organization to put the organization in the best possible spot with all our economics. We hope to always avoid [a standoff], but it’s a realistic situation.”

The deal has a complicated structure, especially for the first year. According to TSN’s Bob McKenzie, Nylander’s first-year salary is pro-rated at 10MM (6.67MM), plus a $2MM signing bonus, which comes out to net $8.67MM and a $10.2MM AAV. In the remaining years of the deal, Nylander’s AAV is $6.996MM.

Here is a breakdown of the deal (via CapFriendly):

  • 2018-19: $10MM salary + $2MM signing bonus = $10.2 AAV
  • 2019-20: $700K salary + $8.3MM signing bonus = $6.97 AAV
  • 2020-21: $2.5MM salary + $3.5MM signing bonus = $6.97 AAV
  • 2021-22: $2.5MM salary + $3.5MM signing bonus = $6.97 AAV
  • 2022-23: $2.5MM salary + $3.5MM signing bonus = $6.97 AAV
  • 2023-24: $2.5MM salary + $3.5MM signing bonus = $6.97 AAV

For Nylander, it ends a long holdout as Nylander missed out on 59 days of the season, officially signing five minutes before the NHL deadline for him to sign an NHL contract this year. With rumors that Nylander had been holding out for $8MM and trying to force Dubas’ hand in the rookie GM’s first holdout negotiations, Nylander was forced to settle for under $7MM, which is a win for Dubas.

“I think all offers varied. I’m not going to get into where our offers started and where theirs started,” Dubas said. “I’m happy for our team and I’m happy for William. I wish we had been able to get this done before training camp…happy to add William.”

McKenzie also notes that Nylander received a 10-team modified no-trade clause in the final year of the deal as he is not eligible for a no-trade clause for another five years.

The 22-year-old center was considered to be a key piece of Toronto’s young core, but with the team’s salary cap having tightened up over the past two years with signings to major free agents Patrick Marleau and more recently to John Tavares, the team needed to prove that they could extend some of their younger players for discounts or be forced to break apart some of the team. Nylander is only the first of many of their future contract negotiations as Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner will both be restricted free agents this coming offseason and are expected to get paid even higher than Nylander. The team also have several other key contracts, including Nylander’s on-ice replacement this year in Kasperi Kapanen, who has played well enough to earn himself quite a raise in restricted free agency next season. Andreas Johnsson’s play should also get a boost in pay as a restricted free agent as well. The team also will have to factor in the contract of defenseman Jake Gardiner who will hit unrestricted free agency next season and needs to be locked up.

“I knew people were ready to jam that one down my throat,” Dubas said. “We hope all these guys will be career Leafs. That’s our goal, is to keep it together…We’ve had discussions with [Matthews and Marner’s agents]. We want to avoid a situation where all our players aren’t in training camp. Not [making history] in the way we’d like to [with Nylander deal].”

Despite the long holdout and his $8MM asking price, Nylander fared pretty well. The Maple Leafs had made it clear early in negotiations this summer that they weren’t willing to go past six years at $6MM, so to get an extra $1MM per year is impressive, considering the team’s budget.

TSN’s Darren Dreger  was the first to report the deal.

Trade Rumors: Faulk, Bobrovsky, Ritchie, Wood

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When TSN released their off-season Trade Bait List in early July, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Justin Faulk was ranked #4, among the most likely players to be dealt. A little more than two months later, all three players ranked ahead of him – Erik Karlsson, Max Pacioretty, and former teammate Jeff Skinner – have changed teams, while Faulk remains in Raleigh. But for how much longer? Appearing on TSN Radio 1050 recently, insider Pierre LeBrun revealed that Faulk was a target of the Toronto Maple Leafs this summer and speculated that the team could still move to acquire him this season. LeBrun opines that Faulk, a right-handed shot signed to an extremely reasonable $4.83MM cap hit over two more years, would be a perfect fit for the Leafs. Toronto has long been searching for a top pair defenseman to complement lefty Morgan Rielly and Faulk fits the bill. LeBrun speculates that the Hurricanes are likely asking for a major package in exchange for Faulk, but meeting those demands may not be an impossible task for Toronto. Several Maple Leafs players and prospects could fill gaps in Carolina, such as veteran center Nazem Kadri, promising wingers Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, and young goalies Garret Sparks and Joseph Woll, as well as a full cabinet of draft picks. There have also been some inclinations that the Hurricanes are preparing to move on from Faulk as well, such as acquiring a new top pair righty in Dougie Hamilton and passing over Faulk, a career ’Cane, for their captaincy. The team is under no pressure to deal their long-time stud defenseman, but if GM Don Waddell receives a strong enough offer, he seems likely to pull the trigger.

  • Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen has been clear that he does not want to trade either Artemi Panarin or Sergei Bobrovsky, but as both remain unsigned and approaching free agency and trade calls continue to come in for Panarin, there has been rampant speculation as to where the star winger may land. After recent comments from Bobrovsky that could be read as implying that his time in Columbus could soon be over, many have begun to predict where he may land as well. In a recent segment for TSN Radio 1200 in Ottawa, Darren Dreger stated his belief that the New York Islanders would be the front runners in a Bobrovsky trade scenario. Dreger adds that there will be more than a few suitors should the two-time Vezina winner hit the trade market or, better yet, the open market. However, Dreger feels that the Islanders and new GM Lou Lamoriello feel more pressure to add a true No. 1 goaltender in their hopes of soon returning to contender status. The Isles currently roster unpredictable Robin Lehner, on a one-year deal, and failed starter Thomas Greiss, as well as two prospects overseas in Ilya Sorokin and Jakub Skarek. Lehner and Greiss do not instill much hope and Sorokin may never make the jump to North America. The Islanders are without a solution in net in the immediate future and could target Bobrovsky at any cost to solve that problem.
  • How long will the Anaheim Ducks and New Jersey Devils wait on contract resolutions with Nick Ritchie and Miles Wood respectively? The restricted free agents continue to hold out for better contracts and miss valuable time in training camp, despite underwhelming numbers through their first three seasons to support their absence. At this time last year, Columbus Blue Jackets RFA forward Josh Anderson – a similar power forward-style player – remained unsigned and was the subject of numerous trade rumors. Yet, Anderson had just 34 points through 96 games in his first three seasons, whereas Ritchie and Wood have more experience and production through the same amount of time. Ritchie, a first round pick in 2014, has 59 points in 186 games. Wood, one of the Devils’ top scorers last season, has 49 points through 137 games. One would think that either team could drum up interest if they began actively shopping their respective RFA, but it hasn’t happened to this point. Wood is not without flaws to his game, but has exceeded expectations and played a major role for New Jersey last season and with more play time has the potential to be even better. In contract, Ritchie has his strengths, but has not lived up to his first-round billing. Between the two, it would be less of a surprise to see Anaheim part with Ritchie.

 

Poll: Who Will Win The Calder Trophy In 2018-19?

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The Athletic’s NHL Draft and prospects guru Scott Wheeler has released the first definitive list of candidates for the Calder Trophy in 2018-19, and the order may surprise some people. Admittedly, the list is in the context of fantasy hockey, but Wheeler’s rankings are true to how he thinks Calder voting will unfold if each rookie hits their stat projections. As such, it’s not this year’s first overall pick, Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, at the top of the list, but presumptive top-six center for the Vancouver Canucks, Elias Pettersson. Pettersson will be put in a much better position to rack up points than will Dahlin, the next-best candidate, as potentially one of the three best scoring forwards for the Canucks and traditionally productive forwards have a better shot at the Calder than (relatively) equally productive defensemen.

Coming in at number three is Boston Bruins forward Ryan Donato, who led both the NCAA and Olympics in goals last season and will look to win a top-six role for Boston and continue to find the back of the net at an alarming rate. Playing alongside either Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk is an easy way for Donato to quickly become an elite scorer at the NHL level. The fourth-ranked candidate is second overall pick Andrei Svechnikov of the Carolina Hurricanes, who – like Pettersson – will be given an immense amount of responsibility right away as a top-six winger who is arguably already one of the three most skilled forwards on the team. However, Svechnikov is one of three Hurricanes rookies on Wheeler’s list, which could take away from his case. Rounding out the top five is Dahlin’s fellow rookie in Buffalo, center Casey Mittelstadt, who scored at nearly a point-per-game pace in the college ranks and in a brief stint with the Sabres to end the year. Mittelstadt should face favorable match-ups this season with the lines anchored by Jack Eichel and Patrik Berglund drawing considerable attention from the opposition.

Wheeler’s top twenty Calder Trophy candidates are as follows:

  1. C Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
  2. D Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
  3. RW Ryan Donato, Boston Bruins
  4. RW Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
  5. C Casey Mittelstadt, Buffalo Sabres
  6. RW Filip Zadina, Detroit Red Wings
  7. C Dylan Strome, Arizona Coyotes
  8. C Henrik Borgstrom, Florida Panthers
  9. C Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes
  10. D Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars
  11. RW Dylan Sikura, Chicago Blackhawks
  12. RW Eeli Tolvanen, Nashville Predators
  13. C Filip Chytil, New York Rangers
  14. LW Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators
  15. LW Valentin Zykov, Carolina Hurricanes
  16. RW Kailer Yamamoto, Edmonton Oilers
  17. C Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
  18. LW Kristian Vesalainen, Winnipeg Jets
  19. C Sam Steel, Anaheim Ducks
  20. RW Vitaly Abramov, Columbus Blue Jackets

Honorable Mentions: C Vladislav Kamenev, Colorado Avalanche; LW Jordan Greenway, Minnesota Wild; C Robert Thomas, St. Louis Blues; LW Andreas Johnsson, Toronto Maple Leafs; C Michael Rasmussen, Detroit Red Wings; C Lias Andersson, New York Rangers; D Sami Niku, Winnipeg Jets; D Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers; RW Daniel Sprong, Pittsburgh Penguins

What do you think? Who will be the NHL’s Rookie of the Year and take home the Calder Trophy at the end of the season? The favorite? The first overall pick? Another top candidate? Or a name not even mentioned here?

Atlantic Notes: Canadiens, Maple Leafs, Senators

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If you were heading into the season believing that Jonathan Drouin will be the first-line center for the Montreal Canadiens, you may have to rethink that position. GM Marc Bergevin was on TSN radio today and told Tony Marinaro that he currently projects Max Domi, Phillip Danault, Tomas Plekanec and Matthew Peca as the four centers for the Canadiens to start the year. Drouin obviously still could end up at the position at some point given Domi’s lack of experience there, but it sounds like he’ll be starting on the wing.

The Canadiens have been searching for center help for quite some time, and though there is help on the way with prospects Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Ryan Poehling and Nick Suzuki—though the latter has played quite a bit of wing as well during his junior career—2018-19 doesn’t look like it will necessarily be any different. For Drouin at least the move might be beneficial, given that he struggled to score last season down the middle with just 13 goals in 77 games.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs meanwhile aren’t handing out roster spots at all to their young players, instead expecting them to earn a role in training camp. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet writes that Mike Babcock expects both Travis Dermott and Andreas Johnsson, who are expected to play big roles on the Maple Leafs going forward, to prove that they deserve spots instead of just acting like they’ve “arrived now.” Many Toronto fans are hoping that Dermott will be part of the solution to their perceived defensive woes this season, but he’ll have to convince his head coach that he’s ready before being handed a full-time job.
  • Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion was on CBC radio with Robyn Bresnahan today, speaking about the dilemma he faced with the recent Erik Karlsson situation. Dorion admitted that he knew he couldn’t “get nothing” for Karlsson by watching him walk away in free agency next offseason. Contract negotiations quickly broke down between the two sides this offseason, meaning Dorion felt he “owed it to our fans to tell them what the plan was and before the season started.” The team is quite openly in rebuild mode, and are expected to give plenty of opportunities to young players this season.

What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?

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Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.

Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.

The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.

So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.

The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.

 

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