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Detroit’s Holland “At Top Of List” To Run Seattle Franchise

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With the likelihood that Seattle will end up with their own expansion franchise in the coming years, the importance of hiring a top general manager will be surfacing quicker than ever. The Vegas Golden Knights have proved that running an expansion franchise might just be one of the top job in the NHL as George McPhee has showed. Now that Seattle has officially filed an expansion application recently, the team might be looking for their own GM, if/when it gets approved.

Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that Detroit Red Wings general manager Ken Holland might be “at the top of the list,” of candidates to fill that role in Seattle in the near future.

“Let’s make no mistake about it, Kenny Holland is out there,” Kypreos said during the Headlines segment Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada. “His contract is going to expire at the end of the year. No talks at all scheduled. It appears it might go all the way to the end of the season before it gets addressed. You’ve got to put him at the top of the list.”

Some might consider that surprising. While Holland has put together an impressive resume with the Detroit Red Wings, who have won four Stanley Cups under his tenure, he has struggled to stabilize the franchise over the last few years, refusing to rebuild the franchise and signing multiple players to over-inflated deals with no-movement clauses which has set back the franchise.

Others mentioned as potential early candidates include John Ferguson, Jr., the executive director of player personnel of the Boston Bruins and former general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs, and Pittsburgh Penguins assistant GM Bill Guerin. The Athletic’s Craig Custance adds Vegas Golden Knights’ assistant general manager Kelly McCrimmon to the list of potential candidates as well.

Seattle Officially Files Expansion Application

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Though it took a little longer than expected, the Oak View Group based out of Seattle has officially filed its application for NHL expansion and given a $10MM down payment according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

The group plans on having construction completed on their KeyArena renovation project in time to have NHL hockey start in the fall of 2020, meaning the league would need to hold another expansion draft that summer. Seattle hasn’t started on a season ticket drive yet, but has the full support of mayor Jenny Durkan as she attempts to bring both NHL and NBA franchises to the city.

An expansion team in Seattle would represent the 32nd franchise in the NHL, and would likely cause some additional division re-alignment. Currently, the Central is the only division with seven teams, and Seattle doesn’t make much sense there. Though it’s not for some time, teams will begin to prepare their rosters for an eventual expansion draft as they did for the Vegas go-round. Ultimately it didn’t matter much, as the Golden Knights have been one of the league’s best teams right from the start. Seattle will try to emulate their success, though it will certainly be a difficult task.

Trade Candidate: David Perron

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Ever since the Vegas Golden Knights were contructed, the plan had always been to build through the draft, but add a few veteran players they could move at the trade deadline. While James Neal was an obvious choice when the team selected him from Nashville Predators, no one was as confident that veteran winger David Perron would be as successful. Yet one season in, Perron is having a one of his best seasons of his career. The question now is does the team still want to trade him?

Contract

Jan 19, 2018; Sunrise, FL, USA; Vegas Golden Knights left wing James Neal (18) reacts after a goal by left wing David Perron (not pictured) against the Florida Panthers in the first period at BB&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Perron is in the final season of a two-year, $7.5MM contract—$3.75MM cap hit, $3.75MM salary that he signed with the St. Louis Blues. He will be a UFA in July, and a modified no-trade clause in which he can submit three teams he doesn’t want to be traded to.

2017-18

Perron has been fantastic on the Golden Knights’ second line along with Neal and Erik Haula this season. Acquired via the expansion draft from St. Louis, the original plan had been to move him at the trade deadline, but instead, he’s made himself a key top-six player on a team that has the best record in the Western Conference. While he has just 13 goals this year, that’s still on target for his best goal-scoring season since 2013-14 when he potted 28 goals when he was with the Edmonton Oilers.

However, what makes his game stand out more than anything is his ability to move the puck. His 36 assists puts him already at 49 points with still almost a third of a season left. That already gives him more points than he’s had since that 2013-14 season in Edmonton. Add that to his clutch play in key moments, which includes four game-winning goals and he’s become too good to move.

Season Stats

48 GP, 13 goals, 36 assists, 49 points, +7 rating, 36 PIM, 89 shots, 17:42 ATOI, 48.9 CF%

Potential Suitors

At this point, almost any team might want to get a hold of Perron as a player rental for the upcoming playoffs. Even at $3.75MM, that’s a pretty good deal for a 29-year-old player having a great season. However, there is little chatter considering where the Golden Knights stand at present. General manager George McPhee has been non-committal to whether they intend to be buyers or sellers, but most believe they won’t be sellers.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Extremely unlikely. While you can never say never, Perron is a fixture for a team that looks ready to make a deep playoff run in their first-ever season, which no one predicted. With the team’s chemistry operating at peak efficiency, moving one of their key pieces could wreck their success. Once considered a trade deadline candidate, it looks like Vegas will hold onto him as their own player rental. While there has been little early indication that Vegas intends to extend Perron’s contract, that’s still a possibility as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

Western Notes: Seattle’s Nicknames, Blackhawks, Stamkos

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With Seattle’s expansion application almost ready to turn in to the NHL and the general belief that Seattle will have a team in place in the next few years, the Hockey News’s Sam McCaig recently ran a story with suggestions for potential nicknames for the possible expansion team. With an expansion fee of $650MM, Seattle better make sure they make the right decision when it comes to their team name.

McCaig writes that there are several good name possibilities, including the Seattle Emeralds, Seattle Totems and the Seattle Rainiers. The Emeralds would be a reference to the fact the city is known as the “Emerald City.” The Totems would be a salute to the Pacific Northwest, while the Rainiers would acknowledge Mount Rainer, the highest mountain in Washington state.

Other possibilities mentioned in the story would be the Seattle Evergreens, the Seattle Kraken, Seattle Renegades and the Seattle Sea Lions among others. Some might make good fits, while others come off as unrealistic, but regardless, assuming they are approved, Seattle will need a name at some point.

  • The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required) writes that for the Chicago Blackhawks to earn themselves a playoff spot this season, they must fulfil a 10-point plan for the remaining 33 games of the season. The Blackhawks, currently in last place in the Central Division with 53 points, are seven points removed from a wildcard spot and will have a tough time making up the ground, but it isn’t impossible. The scribe writes that the estimate is the team will have to go 20-12-1 over the next 33 games to reach the playoffs, a tall order, but not impossible. Obviously, the return of goaltender Corey Crawford will be critical and that looks like a real possibility soon. Among some of his other key points, Powers writes that Brandon Saad must start playing better in the second-half of the season. His 13 goals and 10 assists is currently heading for one of his worst seasons ever. Powers also suggests a trade could help, but only if it doesn’t involve one of the team’s top prospects. The team had every reason to make those types of trades in the past, but no longer.
  • NHL.com’s Scott Burnsides notes that Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos has seen a lot of New York Islanders center John Tavares during the all-star game. Tavares will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and while he says he’d like to stay in New York, he has not signed an extension. Stamkos, who went through a similar situation two years ago, understands what Tavares is going through. “To be honest, I haven’t really had a discussion with John about that,” Stamkos said. “It was something that, as a player, you’ve earned the right at this point in your career to have conversations, to not have conversations, to do what you want regarding your contract. If he ever asked me, I’d give him my opinion. He’s obviously having an unbelievable season and is probably doing a better job of not letting it affect him than maybe I did. It’s in the back of your head for sure.”

Trade Candidates: James Neal

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The Vegas Golden Knights had everything set up perfectly at the beginning of the season. They acquired a number of extra picks through the expansion draft for the 2017, 2019 and 2020 drafts and had an abundance of rental players they could trade off at the trade deadline to add picks for the upcoming 2018 draft, including James Neal. Instead, the team took off and is currently the top team in the Western Conference. So, will the Golden Knights consider trading him?

Contract

Neal is entering the final year of a six-year, $30MM ($5MM AAV) that he signed back in 2012 when he was still with the Pittsburgh Penguins. He does have a Modified No Trade Clause in which he can list eight team he cannot be traded to.

2017-18

Neal is on pace for a very strong season as he has been an integral part to the the team’s second line alongside center Erik Haula and winger David Perron. Neal has 22 goals already this year in just 48 games, just one goal shy of tying last year’s total of 23 when he was with the Nashville Predators. His success garnered him a spot in the all-star game today. Assuming he keeps up his success, Neal is on pace for one of his best goal-scoring seasons, although his team-high is 40 goals back with Pittsburgh in the 2011-12 season.

Another positive is that the winger has shown consistency throughout the season. Besides a small scoreless streak in December, he has shown himself to be a player the Golden Knights can count on during most games. In his last eight games, he has put up five goals.

Season Stats

48 GP, 22 goals, 12 assists, 34 points, +1 rating, 20 PIM, 17:26 ATOI, 53.2 CF%

Potential Suitors

Neal would likely be a great fit to a number of teams if the Golden Knights were truly interested in moving on from the winger. A team like Tampa Bay, who might want to add one more key piece wouldn’t complain if they could add Neal to their second of third line as a final piece for their title run this year. However, many teams are looking for goal scorers for the playoff run, so if Vegas chose to move him, they would likely get a number of bidders for him.

Likelihood of a Trade

The plan would have worked perfectly had Vegas performed like everyone thought an expansion franchise would. However, at this point, there is little to no chance that Neal goes anywhere as the team is on a title run of their own. Moving him might easily break up the team’s winning chemistry. While the team has said they are focused on locking up Neal, who is looking to score big on one final contract at age 30, there has been no updates on negotiations, suggesting that none have truly started or the team is having trouble finding terms that both sides are amenable to. However, general manager George McPhee has already said that Neal isn’t going anywhere this year, so the worst case scenario is the team will use him as their own rental player. Of course, if they could find a way to get a similar player back, anything is possible, but a deal remains highly doubtful. He is likely staying in Vegas for the stretch run.

Seattle Expansion Application Expected Soon

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It seems like NHL Expansion: Round Two is in full swing. After Commissioner Gary Bettman spent considerable time discussing the prospect of expansion yesterday, a report from NHL.com’s Dan Rosen suggests that the potential Seattle ownership group is nearing completion of it’s application. Unlike the most recent expansion process, during which the NHL had an open bidding window and multiple applications were considered, the Seattle group was granted an exclusive expansion application review back on December 7th. Now, it seems group leaders David Bonderman and Jerry Bruckheimer are closing in on being the league’s newest expansion selection.

The exact timeline for expansion remains somewhat unclear, but Bettman acknowledged that the league and the Seattle group are in constant communication, stating “we’re getting the information on a timely basis, whatever that timetable is, so we can go through the processes that we have to.” Bettman also recently met with Seattle mayor Jenny Durkan in person, who herself is a major proponent of the NHL in Seattle, to discuss the prospects of expansion. The process seems to be moving along at a nice clip, and although the Seattle group will likely need additional time to run a season ticket drive and of course to collect the $650MM expansion fee, the application could be completed in no time.

What we do know for sure, especially given the NHL’s excitement about Seattle, the increased expansion fee, and the success of the Vegas Golden Knights, is that the Expansion Draft structure will not be changing. The Seattle group will expect the same set of rules that helped create the Western Conference-leading Knights and no one can blame them. Back in June, the then-existing 30 other NHL teams were allowed to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie (or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie) from being selected in the expansion draft. Side deals could be – and were – made to help protect players that didn’t fit in nicely to a team’s protection plan. Nevertheless, Vegas still ended up with All-Stars Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal, exciting young scorers Jon Marchessault, William Karlsson, Erik Haula, and Alex Tuch, and a plethora of valuable draft picks. Seattle will want a chance to take the same caliber of player and add another instantly-competitive club into the NHL’s ranks. With the next round of expansion likely set for 2020, teams may have to begin thinking already about the Expansion Draft repercussions of any upcoming trades and free agent signings.

Commissioner Notes: Goalie Interference, International Games, Expansion

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NHL commissioner Gary Bettman spoke to the media prior to tonight’s All-Star’s Skills Competition and it didn’t take long for questions to arise about the controversial goaltender interference calls that have created an uproar. As reported earlier, the all-star coaches and league executives met with the league today to discuss the issues with goaltender interference. Bettman was quick to point out that he believes that everyone is overthinking the rule and plans to send a memo to officials suggesting they ease off when looking at video, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston.

“Overall, the system works,” Bettman said. “But I think we’ve gotten to the point where everyone is overlooking the review.”

The comments might suggest the league might be backing off on goaltender interference in the near future.

  • Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston tweets that Bettman announced the 2019 NHL All-Star Game will be in San Jose on Jan. 26-27. It will be the first time its been there since 1997. St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann tweeted the St. Louis Blues are bidding to host the 2020 all-star game.
  • Johnston also tweets that Bettman said that the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers will start the 2018-19 regular season in Sweden. The Winnipeg Jets and the Florida Panthers will play two regular season games against each other in Helsinki, Finland. The Devils tweeted they will also be playing in a preseason game in Switzerland.
  • TSN’s Daren Dreger tweets that Bettman said that the plan is to send two teams to China in September and continues to be a “work in progress.” Johnston adds that it’s expected the Calgary Flames and the Boston Bruins will be the two teams.
  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that Bettman was asked if the next expansion team (Seattle — if it happens, added Bettman) would get the same favorable expansion draft rules and player pool that the Vegas Golden Knights received. Bettman said, “Yes.” Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus tweets that Bettman added that any future expansion team would insist on the same expansion draft rules that Vegas took advantage of. ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski tweets that Bettman said the ownership group working for a Seattle expansion bid is still working on their application. A timetable and ticket drive are up to them, but likely should be completed in one or two weeks, suggests LeBrun.
  • LeBrun tweets that he talked to NHLPA’s Don Fehr, who said that a potential World Cup tournament could happen in September of 2020 or February of 2020. However, there still would have to be a lot of work to be done.
  • LeBrun tweets that when asked whether adding a 32nd team through expansion would suggest the NHL should look into expanding the number of playoff teams, Bettman said ’No.’ He likes it at 16 teams.
  • Wyshysnki tweets that Bettman wasn’t positive about a possible expansion team coming from Quebec: “We’re not currently considering an application. At the current time, we’re not focused on a team in Quebec City. That doesn’t mean we’ll never be focused [on it].”
  • Wyshysnki tweets that on the topic of the Arizona Coyotes, the commissioner added that ownership is working through possibilities to build a new arena and the strength of the club comes down to the owners’ willingness to continue that pursuit. “I wouldn’t focus on Arizona moving right now. Or anytime soon. Or ever,” said Bettman.
  • Lazerus tweets that Bettman also wasn’t as positive about NHL players joining the Olympics in 2020. “I don’t have an answer to that question.” He said the clubs and owners find Olympic participation “disruptive.”

Western Notes: Sedins, Doughty, Golden Knights, Hyka

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Recent comments from Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin suggest the twin brothers are hoping for another year in Vancouver. Already 37 and trending downwards in their career, the struggling Canucks were considered to be sellers at the trade deadline. However, the Sedin twins return also might throw a wrench into general manager Jim Benning’s deadline plans.

While the team has several key trade chips to move, including veteran scorer Thomas Vanek and defenseman Erik Gudbranson, Benning might be more likely to retain or extend them to surround the Sedin twins with veteran players, according to J.D. Burke of The Athletic (subscription required). The scribe begins by pointing out that the Sedin’s decision will have major implications to the salary cap and the look of the team. The cost to retain both soon-to-be 38-year-old forwards will be about $10MM, estimates Burke, who adds the team would have to make a decision whether to keep Vanek with the team.

If the Sedin’s stay, will Benning look for assets that might benefit the veteran Sedins, rather than focus on the team’s need to rebuild. Benning has often preferred to acquire players, rather than trade for picks. The team has a lot of prospects coming through the system already, but not trading their assets at the deadline could hurt the future of the team down the road as well. No one is saying the Sedin twins shouldn’t come back. They have been with the franchise since they started their careers and should be welcomed, but not at the expense of the team’s future.

  • Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty spoke to the media today at the all-star’s media day. According to Los Angeles’ Times writer Helene Elliott, Doughty said that money and term aren’t the only factor in the way he will approach free agency in 2018-19. “I don’t know if a lot of people think our future looks bright but I think our future does as the L.A. Kings organization,” Doughty said. “We’ve got some young guys that aren’t with us yet that will make a difference in a couple years. We still have that core group of guys. I think we’re trending in the right direction and getting back to hopefully where we were a few years back.”
  • Yahoo Sports’ Ryan Lambert writes that while the praise that goes towards Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee is well earned, he believes that Vegas’ unbelievable success should fall on the shoulder of all the other teams’ general managers. The scribe writes that if other general managers had done a better job managing their own rosters, the Golden Knights wouldn’t have been able to get better quality players and picks in order to pad their roster in the initial first year. The expansion draft should net expansion team with back-end forwards and defensemen and No. 2 goalies. However, Florida Panther general manager Dave Talon just handed two top-six forwards to Vegas to get rid of the contract of Reilly Smith, while they opted to move on from Jonathan Marchessault because they didn’t believe he could repeat his 30-goal season from last year. The same can be said for the Minnesota Wild, who gave Vegas forward Alex Tuch and Erik Haula in exchange for draft considerations. There were so many draft considerations from plenty of other teams such as the New York Islanders, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning. Had general managers made better decisions, perhaps the Golden Knights wouldn’t be the top team in the West. Lambert also adds that the team still has 10 draft picks that will fall in the first two rounds over the next three years. Doesn’t look like Vegas is going anywhere.
  • Still with the Golden Knights, SinBinVegas tweets that prospect Tomas Hyka, who was scheduled to play in the AHL All-Star game on Jan. 29, has been replaced with T.J. Tynan as Hyka is now listed as “unavailable for the game.” Vegas plays its first game after the all-star break on Jan. 30, suggesting Hyka might get called up instead. The 24-year-old wing, who signed out of the Czech. Republic, has 12 goals and 31 points in 32 games with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves.

Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages

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The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.

"<strongMinnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.

William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.

If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.

He also is a restricted free agent this summer.

The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.

There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.

Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.

The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.

Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.

The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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