Stretch Run Storylines: St. Louis Blues
As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks. Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run. Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team. First up is a look at the Central Division, beginning with St. Louis.
The Blues had a bit of a sluggish start to their season with just three wins in their first eight games but since then, they have been the top team in the Western Conference and as a result, they sit atop the division as well as the Western Conference. That has the defending Stanley Cup Champions sitting in good shape whenever play resumes, even more so considering one of their top players will return which highlights their top storylines to watch for.
Tarasenko’s Return
Shoulder injuries have plagued winger Vladimir Tarasenko for a while now and another one suffered in his tenth game of the season has caused him to miss most of the year. However, at the time he underwent surgery, the projected timeline for his return was late March or early April which made GM Doug Armstrong decide not to use LTIR relief to acquire a replacement, a move that seems particularly prescient now. If they had acquired someone using LTIR, they wouldn’t be able to activate Tarasenko until they found a way to get in cap compliance and with the trade deadline now long passed, that would be next to impossible.
Barring any unexpected setbacks, Tarasenko should be able to return to the lineup whenever play resumes which will give a team that already has hovered around the top-ten in scoring this season its top scoring threat back. There is bound to be some rust although some of that will be offset by this extended layoff for everyone. Getting his timing back before the postseason gets underway would be a big boost to a team that’s certainly going to be capable for another long playoff run.
Pietrangelo’s Increasing Value
The contracts given to Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM) and Drew Doughty ($11MM) have helped place the spotlight on defenseman Alex Pietrangelo who is now pegged to get a significant raise on his current $6.5MM AAV. Heading into the year, some had suggested a deal in the $9MM range could be his target but that may very well be on the low side.
Very quietly, the captain has put up a career year offensively. He already has a new top mark in goals (16) while his assists per game and points per game marks are also the best of his career. If the NHL resumes with some regular season action, he will almost certainly set new highs in those categories as well. After having a bit of a quieter year offensively in 2018-19, he has rebounded quite nicely and that’s only going to help his value.
As things stand, the Blues can’t afford to re-sign him and fill out the rest of their roster even if the Upper Limit of the salary cap goes up slightly. (And with everything that’s happening, that’s not as likely as it was just a few weeks ago.) As a result, it is a distinct possibility that Pietrangelo is playing out his final days in St. Louis.
Scoring Race
The battle for the top spot in the division should be tightly contested as Colorado is only two spots behind them and this layoff gives them a chance to get some of their players healthy as well. But there is another race that is certainly intriguing, the battle to lead the team in points.
While St. Louis doesn’t have anyone near the point per game mark, they have four players within four points of each other for the team lead in Ryan O’Reilly (61), David Perron (60), Brayden Schenn (58), and Jaden Schwartz (57). Four points isn’t a big gap so it’s quite possible that this particular race could go down to the wire.
O’Reilly and Perron are signed for two more years after this one while Schenn signed an eight-year extension back in October that kicks in for 2020-21. But Schwartz will be entering the final season of his deal this summer which makes him eligible for a contract extension. A strong finish to his campaign will certainly bolster his bargaining power. If he can get that team lead, it’ll be even stronger.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Troy Brouwer, Aaron Ness Clear Waivers
Wednesday: Both Brouwer and Ness have cleared waivers and can be sent to the minor leagues.
Tuesday: Even though the season is almost over, teams are still making tweaks to their rosters. Today, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that both Troy Brouwer and Aaron Ness have been placed on waivers.
In Ness’ case, Craig Morgan of The Athletic tweets that the Arizona Coyotes are expecting Jakob Chychrun back this week. Even though teams no longer have a roster limit, Ness is eligible to play for the Tucson Roadrunners and can continue to get some game action in the minor leagues.
For Brouwer, things are a little different. The veteran forward was not recalled until after the trade deadline, meaning he is eligible for AHL playoffs, but he actually hasn’t played a single game at that level this season. It’s unclear if the St. Louis Blues would send him down to the minor leagues in the event he clears waivers.
When it comes to post-deadline waivers, it is important to remember that any claim comes with some restrictions. As CapFriendly pointed out recently, a team changing reserve lists after the deadline is not eligible to play in the regular season or playoffs for his new club. That means even if a playoff team claimed Brouwer or Ness to give them a little more depth, they could not play.
Four Players Remain Eligible To Avoid Group VI Free Agency
With the end of the season quickly approaching, we now have clarification on most of the players that are eligible for Group VI unrestricted free agency this offseason. The full list can be found here along with the breakdown of the criteria to reach this status. However, there are four players that could still avoid being in this situation which will be worth watching for over the last few weeks.
Colby Cave (Edmonton) – A year ago, it didn’t look like Cave would be in this situation. He spent the majority of 2018-19 in the NHL, getting into 52 games between Boston and Edmonton but failed to earn a regular role with the Oilers this season. Instead, he has played in 43 games with their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield this season and just 11 with the big club. That leaves him 13 games shy of remaining RFA eligible. While he won’t get there with regular season games, playoff games count as well and he’s likely to be up with them for their playoff run. With AHL Bakersfield well out of playoff contention, he’s someone they could recall right away if they wanted to knock some games off before the postseason starts.
Mackenzie MacEachern (St. Louis) – Of the four, this is the likeliest one to get to 80 and remain a restricted free agent as long as he doesn’t get injured in the near future. MacEachern has spent the entirety of the season in St. Louis, albeit in a limited role as he has averaged less than nine minutes a night in 48 games while spending a lot of time as a healthy scratch. Nonetheless, he’s just two NHL games shy of 80 and with the Blues comfortably in a playoff spot, they can afford to toss him on the fourth line a couple more times to secure his rights for another season.
Michael McCarron (Nashville) – The 2013 first-round pick saw NHL action in each of his first three pro campaigns but hasn’t since then. Instead, he has played a more limited role in the minors and a midseason trade from Montreal to Nashville hasn’t changed his fortunes much although he has nine goals in 26 games with AHL Milwaukee. He’s ten NHL games shy of 80 but barring a rash of injuries, he’s unlikely to make it back to the NHL this season or at least play enough to reach the threshold.
Boo Nieves (NY Rangers) – This is another one that didn’t seem likely a year ago. Nieves played in 43 games with New York in 2018-19 and did well enough that they gave him an early one-way contract extension to avoid him hitting the UFA market as a Group VI player last season. However, he has played in just four NHL contests this year which leaves him four shy of reaching 80. With the Rangers’ fourth line seeing limited minutes, it’s not crazy to think that they could bring Nieves up for a week or so to give him another look and ensure they keep his rights for next season.
If any of these players get to 80 total NHL games, they will be eligible for restricted free agency with salary arbitration eligibility this summer.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Fines, Wisconsin
The NHL has released their Three Stars from last week, and the five-goal man is at the top once again. Mika Zibanejad was always going to be the first star after scoring five goals in a single game (including the OT winner). The New York Rangers center scored seven on the week, giving him a career-high 39 through just 55 games this season.
Second and third place go to two Western Conference stars in Gabriel Landeskog and Leon Draisaitl, who continued their scoring ways with nine and eight points respectively. That means Draisaitl is up to 110 on the season, an incredible feat given he has only played 69 games so far.
- St. Louis Blues forward Oskar Sundqvist has been fined $5,000 for his roughing of Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Adam Boqvist, which resulted in a line brawl between the two teams. Sundqvist tried to lay a check along the boards, but when he missed his left hand (while clutching his stick) came around and hit Boqvist in the face. The amount is the maximum allowable under the CBA, and will affect other supplementary discipline in the future.
- While other college players are starting to sign with teams in the NHL, a few names from the Wisconsin program have yet to make their decisions. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that the Montreal Canadiens will meet with Cole Caufield over the next week while his colleague Rick Carpiniello adds that the Rangers have been in contact with K’Andre Miller but the prospect defenseman has not yet made a decision.
Central Notes: Pietrangelo, Lowry, Radulov, Boqvist
The St. Louis Blues got some good news last week when they learned from NHL commissioner Gary Bettman when he announced that the 2020-21 salary cap is expected to rise between $84MM and $88.2MM. With the current salary cap set at $81.5MM this season, that would give the Blues franchise a significant amount of cap space that it could use to re-sign defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, who is currently slated to become a unrestricted free agent this summer.
In his latest mailbag, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) writes that while those numbers sound promising, the NHL was projected to have a salary cap set at $83MM for the 2019-20 season and it ended up being $81.5MM, which suggests that all teams shouldn’t expect a significant increase. However, as far as Pietrangelo is concerned, the scribe believes that St. Louis has no intention of paying out any more than $9.5MM AAV, and the team would prefer a number closer to $8.5MM regardless of the increase in salary cap. The team believes that if other teams are willing to go to $10MM per season, the Blues will not match that.
Rutherford adds that if that’s the case and Pietrangelo opts to sign elsewhere, the team is unlikely to make any significant additions as there aren’t many significant free-agent defenseman this summer. That means the Blues would then hand the reins to Colton Parayko as the defensive leader next season.
- The Athletic’s Ken Wiebe reports that Winnipeg Jets forward Adam Lowry is likely to return to the lineup Monday for their game against Arizona. Lowry has been out since Jan. 19 with an upper-body injury and should be able to give the Jets a much-needed boost. The 26-year-old has four goals and 10 points in 47 games with 132 hits.
- The Dallas Stars were without Alexander Radulov Saturday due to illness, while forward Justin Dowling was able to re-enter the lineup since late January. Dowling immediately moved onto the top line next to Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. However, with the team desperate to put up some offense after being held to one goal in the past three games, The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required) writes that if Radulov has to miss extended time, the Stars should consider in recalling forward Jason Robertson. The 20-year-old prospect has 25 goals in his rookie campaign with the Texas Stars and has appeared in three NHL games already.
- NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis reports that after missing Friday’s game with a wrist injury on Saturday, Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Adam Boqvist is expected to enter the Blackhawks lineup today against the St. Louis Blues. He fills a gap with rookie Lucas Carlsson out with a concussion.
Justin Faulk Has An Upper-Body Injury
- While it was initially believed that Blues defenseman Justin Faulk had missed Friday’s game due to the flu, the team announced (Twitter link) that he’s actually dealing with an upper-body injury. He’ll be re-evaluated today. It has been a rough first season with St. Louis for the 27-year-old as he has a career low 15 points in 67 games and will begin a new seven-year contract with the Blues next season with an increase in his cap hit from $4.833MM to $6.5MM.
Snapshots: College Free Agents, Ceci, Perunovich
While we have to way until July to get any free agent action among NHL players, the college season will be ending a little sooner. The end of the line for the best NCAA players means a feeding frenzy for NHL organizations, who will be snapping up talent in the hopes that they can step directly into the professional ranks. With that in mind, Frank Seravalli of TSN breaks down five names who are on the radar.
The top name as expected for most of the season is Connor Mackey, who has drawn plenty of speculation over the years. Seravalli reports that 28 of the league’s 31 teams have shown interest in Mackey, including nine that apparently are willing to sign him to an NHL contract this season—allowing him to burn the first year of the entry-level deal he will be restricted to. Remember, to do that the team must have an empty slot under their 50-contract limit, something that the Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning currently do not.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs, who will surely be one of the team showing interest in the college defenseman, are getting back one of their own blueliners. Cody Ceci has been activated from injured reserve, adding some more experience to a group that has very little at the moment. The Maple Leafs have been forced to play Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin, Justin Holl, Timothy Liljegren and Calle Rosen all at the same time, a quintet that has 291 games of NHL experience between them. Ceci, for all his faults, has played in 494.
- Speaking of college defensemen, the St. Louis Blues are monitoring one of their own draft picks very closely in Scott Perunovich, who is having another outstanding season for the University of Minnesota-Duluth. Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic (subscription required) examines the situation and exactly what options Perunovich will have after his year is done. Rutherford points out that there may not be a ton of opportunity right away in St. Louis, which has many speculating about whether the dynamic defenseman will try to find a different destination to start his professional career.
St. Louis Blues Announce New AHL Affiliation
When the Vegas Golden Knights decided to purchase the San Antonio Rampage and relocate them, the St. Louis Blues were left without an AHL affiliation. No longer, as the team has signed a five-year agreement with the Springfield Thunderbirds beginning with the 2020-21 season. That will leave the Florida Panthers looking for a new affiliation. AHL reporter Mark Divver tweets that the rumor is that the Panthers will move their AHL affiliate to Charlotte, while Carolina will make a partnership with the Chicago Wolves.
The Rampage will be turning into the Henderson Silver Knights for next season, throwing the Blues’ plans into chaos once again. The team previously spent a season without an AHL affiliate when the Golden Knights came into the league, but will at least not have to go through that situation again.
GM Doug Armstrong released a statement on the new partnership:
We are excited to announce our deal with Springfield and close our search for a new affiliate. Springfield is a strong franchise in a city with a rich hockey history. Our partnership will allow us to continue to develop our players and further strengthen our franchise as a whole.
The Thunderbirds are 30-26-2 this season and sit in fifth place in the Atlantic Division.
St. Louis Blues Sign Tyler Tucker
Now that the calendar has turned to March, teams around the league can sign prospects to entry-level contracts that won’t officially start until next season. With that in mind, the St. Louis Blues have signed Tyler Tucker to his three-year entry-level deal. Tucker currently plays with the Flint Firebirds of the OHL.
The 20-year old defenseman was selected 200th overall in 2018, but took a huge step forward last season for the Barrie Colts. The 6’2″ 205-lbs Tucker not only led all Colts defensemen in scoring with 14 goals and 59 points, but also was the team leader in penalty minutes with 105. He has another 17 goals and 55 points this season split between his two clubs, and 83 penalty minutes to go along with it.
While you can already see why the Blues may be a perfect fit for Tucker, he’ll still have quite the road before getting to the NHL. Just earning a contract is a big step for someone drafted so late, but next season will likely be spent in the AHL polishing his game.
Tucker did play two games for the San Antonio Rampage at the end of last year and will likely get into some more this time should Flint be knocked out early.
Vladimir Tarasenko To Participate In Contact Drills Next Week
- Blues winger Vladimir Tarasenko will begin participating in contact drills on their upcoming road trip, notes Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That’s a big development for the veteran who has been out since late October with a shoulder injury. The expectation that he’d return late in the year played a big role in a quiet trade deadline for St. Louis but if he’ll be starting contact drills next week, he could be back a bit earlier than expected which would be a big boost for a team that’s already in the top ten in goals scored this season.