Snapshots: Blues, Thornton, Lewis, Lightning
In a mailbag column, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford writes (subscription required) that while the Blues have been linked with a number of high-profile teams such as the Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers, it’s unlikely the team will make a big move for a big name forward with years on his contract like a Max Pacioretty or a Mike Hoffman despite recent rumors to the contrary.
Due to the high trade demands being made for these players, Rutherford believes that trading a top prospect for a player who has a large contract to fit into their salary cap space doesn’t make a lot of sense as the team wants to have as much flexibility when free agency arrives this summer. Instead, the scribe believes the team needs to go the rental route and acquire a player (for a much cheaper price) so the team can make their run.
The team already is without their 2018 first-round pick which they traded for Brayden Schenn, so moving a top prospect could set the team back long-term. The team should look into a player such as Rick Nash, Michael Grabner or Patrick Maroon as options as they likely won’t cost them one of their top prospects in Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas or Klim Kostin.
- The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that alarms should sound after San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton refused to say that he will definitely be back this season. That’s a surprise considering he is a player who last year played through torn MCL and ACL injuries during the playoffs. Historically, he’s been a player who goes out on the ice no matter how hurt he is, so the idea that he might not be back this season suggests the injury is worse than people think. Could he have already played his last game as a San Jose Shark?
- Fox Sports West Patrick O’Neal tweets that Los Angeles Kings forward Trevor Lewis was sent back to Los Angeles to be re-evaluated after being injured in Friday’s game against the Florida Panthers. While indications are that the injury isn’t serious, head coach John Stevens wanted to have him evaluated after he sustained a serious crash against the boards.
- Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that the rumors of a potential Ottawa Senators-Tampa Bay Lightning deadline deal refuses to go away. He writes that there have been a number of rumors, including talk of Erik Karlsson, and points out that Ottawa’s chief scout is expected to be at the Tampa Bay game tonight.
Flames Won’t Part With Picks For Rentals
Calgary Flames president Brian Burke isn’t one to mince words. So, when Burke told Sportsnet 590 host Bob McCown that the Flames won’t be using picks as trade bait at the NHL Trade Deadline, it’s legitimate:
“We don’t have a lot of picks — we’re not picking until [the third round of the 2018 draft], so we can’t use the deadline to pick up a rental player with a relatively high pick… We’re not going into [2019] picks … unless it’s an extraordinary circumstance.”
Burke’s comments seem to line up with recent reports about Calgary’s current condition. Last week, we took a look at exactly what Burke was referring to – the team’s lack of draft picks. The Flames could potentially have to wait until the fourth round to make their first pick this June and, one way or another, have already surrendered their 2019 second-rounder. Burke is not exaggerating when he says that the team can’t afford to give up any more high picks for rentals this deadline. The team’s unwillingness to move picks also adds some credence to the report that young goaltenders Jon Gillies and David Rittich are on the market. If Calgary wants to make a move, they’ll have to dive into their prospect depth to avoid surrendering further draft picks. In addition to their young goalies, slowly-developing 2013 first-rounders Emile Poirier and Hunter Shinkaruk and young defensemen Oliver Kylington, Rasmus Andersson, and even Brett Kulak could be on the move. One player who won’t be leaving: 2017 first-round pick Juuso Valimaki, who Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman says is highly sought-after, but untouchable (Thought 6).
What exactly do the Flames need at the deadline? Burke says a scoring winger and the team’s 20th-ranked offense and 23rd-ranked power play would seem to back that up. Burke seems to think that a return to health for Kris Versteeg could be the solution, but the veteran forward alone is not enough to cure an ineffective bottom-six. Calgary currently sits in the third and final Pacific playoff spot, tied with the Anaheim Ducks and one point ahead of the Los Angeles Kings, but in fact sit behind L.A. in terms of points percentage. With it looking increasingly likely that the Central Division will claim both Western wild card spots, the Flames can’t help but seek an edge over the Ducks and Kings if they want to make the playoffs. Despite Burke’s hopes of an internal turnaround and the team’s difficult draft pick situation, sitting pat at the deadline will likely spell doom for the Flames’ 2017-18 campaign.
Morning Notes: Maple Leafs, Rangers, Prospects
The Toronto Maple Leafs are comfortably in a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, sitting fifteen points up on the Florida Panthers. As they try to catch Boston or Tampa Bay down the stretch for home ice advantage, head coach Mike Babcock clearly wants some help at the trade deadline. As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports, Babcock has let “the people who need to know, know” what he’d like to see added.
In his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman mentions three names on the Maple Leafs that could easily be removed in the next few weeks instead. Josh Leivo, who has asked for a trade after being passed over again for playing time, Nikita Soshnikov, who will force the Maple Leafs into a roster move once he completes his conditioning stint, and Matt Martin. Martin has two more years on his contract at $2.5MM per season, but hasn’t been able to crack the lineup recently and could be moved to create some roster flexibility.
- As the New York Rangers prepare to sell off some assets at the trade deadline, they got some good news on the injury front today. While Marc Staal was absent from practice due to a neck injury, Jimmy Vesey (concussion), Pavel Buchnevich (concussion) and Chris Kreider (blood clot) all skated. Kevin Shattenkirk, who underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, is now off crutches. Amazingly, the Rangers are still just three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and with some returning players and new blood there is no telling what could happen in the latter part of the season.
- Craig Button and TSN have released their ranking of the top-50 prospects that have already been drafted, with Elias Pettersson coming in at the very top. The Vancouver Canucks first-round pick has been arguably the best player in the SHL this season with 45 points through 35 games and looks poised to make an impact in North America as soon as next season. Beyond that is Eeli Tolvanen at #2, despite falling nearly out of the first round entirely last June. Tolvanen turned a disappointing decision at Boston College into an opportunity, and has broken nearly every record for an 18-year old player in the KHL. The entire list is interesting, and is quite different than Corey Pronman’s ranking at The Athletic (subscription required) which had Casey Mittelstadt in the top spot.
Calgary Flames Willing To Listen On Jon Gillies, David Rittich
As we discussed recently, the Calgary Flames are in for a long wait at the NHL Entry Draft in June. The team already dealt away their first and second-round picks, and could find themselves without a third-round selection depending on their playoff push. Because of that lack of draft capital, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) reports that they would be willing to listen on trade proposals including goaltending prospects Jon Gillies and David Rittich. Though they’re not shopping either netminder, they aren’t hanging up the phone either if the trade is for a scoring winger.
Gillies and Rittich are both set to become restricted free agents this summer, and are just two names in a long goaltending pipeline that also includes top prospect Tyler Parsons and project Mason McDonald, both second-round picks that still have huge potential in goal. Though current NHL starter Mike Smith may not have much longer at the Vezina-caliber he’s shown this season, the Flames have an impressive depth chart and could afford to lose a single name.
Gillies, 24, only has two NHL games under his belt so far but has performed admirably in the AHL since leaving Providence College. With a .915 save percentage this season for the Stockton Heat and a massive 6’6″ frame he could be very intriguing to teams looking for a future in goal.
Rittich, 25, is a very different story after signing out of the Czech Republic in 2016. The 6’3″ goaltender has immediately taken to North American hockey, posting impressive numbers in the minor leagues and in a short tenure as Flames’ backup this season.
If Calgary is to wave one of their young goaltenders in trade talks, it would be interesting to see if they added a veteran option somewhere else in case Smith was to suffer an injury. Otherwise they’d be relying on a fairly inexperienced goaltender in a season that isn’t lost just yet. Calgary sits just barely out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference, and still has plans to contend for the Stanley Cup this season.
David Pope Still “100 Percent Set” On Signing With Detroit Red Wings
Every spring, rumors and speculation start to come out about the top collegiate seniors in the country. Will they sign with the team who drafted them, or will they wait until August and become free agents? Every year we hear about players who could make an impact right away, whether it is Tyler Bozak, Justin Schultz, Kevin Hayes, Jimmy Vesey, Alexander Kerfoot or Will Butcher. Some were never drafted, others never signed.
This year is quite the same, and one name that will immediately pop out is that of David Pope. Pope is in his final season at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, where he has 38 points in 28 games and looks like he’s finally coming into his own physically. The Detroit Red Wings drafted him in the fourth round in 2013, and it seems like he’s destined to stay there.
Speaking with Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required), Pope was quite clear on his intention to sign with the Red Wings.
As of right now, I’m 100 percent set on going to Detroit.
Pope would have the same opportunity that Kerfoot, Butcher and others did last season and could wait until the middle of August to become an unrestricted free agent. If he’s to sign with Detroit though, there are a pair of options.
One, he could sign an entry-level contract with the Red Wings starting in 2018-19 and then appear in some AHL contests down the stretch this season on an amateur tryout contract. Many prospects go this way, including Northeastern’s Zachary Aston-Reese, who signed his two-year entry-level deal with the Penguins on March 17th but played 10 games for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at the end of the season on an ATO. Now up in Pittsburgh, Aston-Reese’s ELC actually kicked in this season will still be effective next year.
Two, a route sometimes used by prized free agents coming out of college, is to leverage their pending league-wide availability into a contract right away, burning a year and getting closer to restricted free agency. That method was used by Mike Vecchione last season, who signed his entry-level deal, played just two games with Philadelphia and earned a two-year, one-way contract as a restricted free agent this summer. Vecchione was in a slightly different situation because he was undrafted, and therefore could immediately sign with anyone upon leaving college, whereas Pope will have to wait until August.
In Pope’s case, since his two-year entry-level deal will be signed as a 23-year old regardless of the date it is actually inked—ELC’s take your age as of September 15th of the calendar year it is signed in—he could technically burn a year off of it by forcing the Red Wings to sign him for this season like Vecchione. While there is no evidence he would attempt this, it’s certainly something to think about from the Red Wings point of view.
Either way, Pope will certainly be on Detroit’s radar in the coming months. The young forward is another talented winger who could help in a quick rebuild by the Red Wings, and certainly has a chance at being an NHL player before long. As Custance writes, a stint in the AHL is expected, the only question is whether that will be this season for the Red Wings, or next year for someone else.
Deadline Primer: Boston Bruins
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?
Outside of the Vegas Golden Knights, there may be no bigger surprise in the NHL this season than the Boston Bruins. Following a 6-7-4 start, capped off by a four-game winless streak in mid-November, the Bruins have won 26 of their last 34 games, have the fewest regulation losses in the league, and trail only Vegas and the Tampa Bay Lightning for the best points percentage in the NHL. With games in hand on both clubs, the Bruins have gone from a team that many felt pre-season would miss the playoffs to one with a legitimate shot at the President’s Trophy. Boston is bona fide contender and thus a surefire buyer. The only question that remains is to what extent they are willing to trade futures for immediate help. The evidence points to a quieter deadline in Boston than some may expect.
Record
31-11-8, 2nd in the Atlantic Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$2,452,057 in deadline cap space
43/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2018: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th
2019: BOS 1st, BOS 2nd, BOS 3rd, BOS 4th, BOS 5th, BOS 6th, BOS 7th
Trade Chips
Bruins GM Don Sweeney has been clear that he won’t trade any of the team’s young players on the roster. While that surely includes Charlie McAvoy – one of the most untouchable players in the NHL right now – Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen, Jake DeBrusk, and Anders Bjork, where exactly Sweeney draws the line could determine the size of the deals he’s willing to make. Could frequent 13th man Frank Vatrano be on the move? An electric player in the AHL, Vatrano has failed to show he can produce at the same level in the NHL. A chance of scenery and a larger role on a young, struggling squad could be what Vatrano needs to rediscover his scoring touch, potentially making him an enticing asset. Would Sweeney be willing to move his AHL “tweeners” like Austin Czarnik or Rob O’Gara, who have shown big-league ability, but haven’t been able to crack the roster in Boston? Sweeney may also be reluctant to move many of the Bruins younger prospects, like recent first- and second-rounders Zach Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon in Providence and Trent Frederic, Ryan Donato, and Ryan Lindgren in the NCAA, especially with several ready to fight for a spot in Boston as early as next year. The Bruins own all but one of their picks over the next two years and that wealth could ultimately wind up being the team’s real trade chip.
Players To Watch
LW Frank Vatrano, C Austin Czarnik, LW Peter Cehlarik, D Rob O’Gara, D Emil Johansson
Team Needs
1) Forward Depth
If you can’t tell from the list of players above, it seems like the Bruins are not exactly aiming to acquire the best that the trade market has to offer. The team is unwilling to move young roster players and has high hopes for their many promising prospects. Sweeney and company have done an excellent job of drafting and developing and seem more inclined to wait and see who pans out and who doesn’t rather than trade them away for rentals. The Bruins’ farm system is also severely lacking in right-shot defensemen and right wingers, meaning they’d likely prefer to hold on to their top picks if possible in search of a solution to those holes. The result is a lineup of middling or aging prospects and mid- and late-round picks as the B’s preferred trade capital, not enough to acquire stars, but sufficient to add depth players. And for the 2017-18 Bruins, that’s perfectly fine. They showed early on this season that they have the depth already to deal with injuries up front (and on the blue line) and since the team got healthy, they’ve been rolling on all cylinders. Each scoring line has two veterans and a young player, led by arguably the league’s best grouping of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak. A second line that has seen success turning a left-handed natural center in Ryan Spooner into a right wing with David Krejci and DeBrusk and a third line with immense chemistry in David Backes, Riley Nash, and Heinen round out a solid top nine. Perhaps the one area where they could use some assistance is on the fourth line, where Tim Schaller, Noel Acciari, and rookie Sean Kuraly have done a fine job, but the addition of a solid, two-way bottom-six forward (or two) could be a welcome addition to the energy line and another injury depth option. Even if the Bruins don’t see a need for a starter, with late draft picks to burn, they could add another veteran forward just to improve their depth. In a buyer’s market, even one of the bigger names on the market could fit this role.
2) Left-shot depth defenseman
Similarly, each defensive pair is also well-balanced with a veteran and a youngster and a puck-mover with a physical threat. The Bruins usually line up with Zdeno Chara and Calder candidate McAvoy, Torey Krug with Carlo, and possession monster Grzelcyk with Kevan Miller. Now that he’s healthy, career-starter Adam McQuaid is the #7 defenseman in Boston – stellar depth already – and free agent addition Paul Postma is #8 – also impressive. The only problem is that both McQuaid and Postma are right-handed, as are the right-side rearguards on each pair. If injury strikes the left side, or if Grzelcyk’s play drops off, the B’s could use a left-shot option. O’Gara and Tommy Cross have seen NHL action and Zboril, Lauzon, and Johansson have shown NHL promise, but the Bruins can afford to add a more reliable player with regular play time this season if they so choose.
3) Top-six right wing with term
Don’t expect this. Long-term, there could be a hole on Krejci’s right side, as Backes did not work out last season and Spooner’s success thus far has come as a surprise. Senyshyn or Donato and an off-wing option like Bjork or Cehlarik could eventually take the job, but there are some who think the Bruins should instead try to buy one of the top wings on the trade market. However, there are two problems with this thought: 1) Sweeney seems unwilling to part with the pieces necessary to land such a player, and 2) the line chemistry implications could backfire. Spooner is an offense-first, top-nine player. If forced out of his current spot, Spooner’s only real option would be to supplant Nash on the third line. If that doesn’t work out, then there’s no role for him. An expensive trade could wind up pushing one of the Bruins’ top play-making forwards out of the lineup. Adding a top-six winger would be a luxury for Boston and Sweeney does not seem to be a guy keen on giving up hard-earned, home-grown prospects or picks for a luxury.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.
Snapshots: Islanders, Prospects, Recruitment
The New York Islanders will be opening the doors on their new arena at Belmont Park in a few years, but for the time being they needed to find a place to play. Today, the team announced that they would play 12 games at Nassau Coliseum next season, and split time evenly between there and the Barclays Center again in 2019-20.
During the press conference, the Islanders executive group spoke about John Tavares and his pending free agency, saying that it is completely in his hands and that they want him to spend the rest of his career with the club. As Tavares focuses on getting the Islanders back into the playoffs, rumors will continue to bubble up about him going to another city—it certainly won’t be because they don’t want him back as an Islander.
- Corey Pronman of The Athletic (subscription required) has released his midseason draft rankings, and they will definitely raise an eyebrow or two. Pronman has long been a proponent of ranking potential stars over depth players, despite the risk that may be involved. That might explain his ranking of Ryan Merkley at #6 and Brady Tkachuk down at #15. Pronman’s rankings are just another example of how difficult this draft will be to project, as players fall in wildly different categories on various lists. It could lead to more trading on the draft floor, as teams try to acquire “their guy.”
- NHL players don’t turn down an opportunity to help improve their club, and the All-Star weekend was no different. Several reports, including Craig Custance of The Athletic, listed examples of players trying to recruit others that might be heading to free agency soon. Mike Green, Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson all heard it from players like Auston Matthews, while apparently Steven Stamkos was selling Tampa Bay to everyone who would listen.
Seattle Expansion Application Expected Soon
It seems like NHL Expansion: Round Two is in full swing. After Commissioner Gary Bettman spent considerable time discussing the prospect of expansion yesterday, a report from NHL.com’s Dan Rosen suggests that the potential Seattle ownership group is nearing completion of it’s application. Unlike the most recent expansion process, during which the NHL had an open bidding window and multiple applications were considered, the Seattle group was granted an exclusive expansion application review back on December 7th. Now, it seems group leaders David Bonderman and Jerry Bruckheimer are closing in on being the league’s newest expansion selection.
The exact timeline for expansion remains somewhat unclear, but Bettman acknowledged that the league and the Seattle group are in constant communication, stating “we’re getting the information on a timely basis, whatever that timetable is, so we can go through the processes that we have to.” Bettman also recently met with Seattle mayor Jenny Durkan in person, who herself is a major proponent of the NHL in Seattle, to discuss the prospects of expansion. The process seems to be moving along at a nice clip, and although the Seattle group will likely need additional time to run a season ticket drive and of course to collect the $650MM expansion fee, the application could be completed in no time.
What we do know for sure, especially given the NHL’s excitement about Seattle, the increased expansion fee, and the success of the Vegas Golden Knights, is that the Expansion Draft structure will not be changing. The Seattle group will expect the same set of rules that helped create the Western Conference-leading Knights and no one can blame them. Back in June, the then-existing 30 other NHL teams were allowed to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie (or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie) from being selected in the expansion draft. Side deals could be – and were – made to help protect players that didn’t fit in nicely to a team’s protection plan. Nevertheless, Vegas still ended up with All-Stars Marc-Andre Fleury and James Neal, exciting young scorers Jon Marchessault, William Karlsson, Erik Haula, and Alex Tuch, and a plethora of valuable draft picks. Seattle will want a chance to take the same caliber of player and add another instantly-competitive club into the NHL’s ranks. With the next round of expansion likely set for 2020, teams may have to begin thinking already about the Expansion Draft repercussions of any upcoming trades and free agent signings.
Trade Candidates: Mike Green
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The Red Wings desperately needed a trade chip as Hockeytown stares at another likely season without a playoff appearance. Mike Green fits that role, has been healthy, and one of the leaders on the scoresheet this season for an offensively starved Red Wings squad. Green is also the lone Detroit All-Star. For a team seeking prospects and picks, any additional positive with Green can only help.
Contract
Green is in the final year of a three-year, $18MM deal ($6MM AAV). He does have a no-trade clause, but most pundits agree that for the right team, he’ll waive it for a chance at the Stanley Cup.
2017-18
Green is on pace for his best season in Motown. After a hot start with 11 points in his first 10 games, Green cooled but has still been the best producer on what is a very thin blue line. In his last ten games, Green has just one goal and three assists and had a brutal game against Chicago, being on the ice for four of the five Blackhawk goals. Though he’s known for being an offensive defenseman, Green is weak in his own end, which has been apparent on a Red Wings squad that suffers defensively. A glimpse into his advanced stats and it tells a story of a defenseman logging top minutes for a below average team. One of his liabilities this season has been turning the puck awful in bad spots–often leading to scoring chances or goals.
Green brings a right hand shot from the point and is a mainstay on what was a resurgent Red Wings power play. As of late, Detroit has struggled but Green’s crisp passing and offensive prowess is a major asset.
Season Stats
48 GP, 5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points, -5 rating, 26 PIM, 22:35 ATOI, 46.8 CF%,
Potential Suitors
His former team, the Washington Capitals, come to mind right away as there would be comfort there with some familiar faces on the bench. Tampa Bay is another option, as they’re certainly gearing up for what should be a long run and adding Green to an already strong blue line would only strengthen an already formidable corps. Vegas, as Craig Custance pointed out, has a “ton of picks” and former Washington general manager George McPhee drafted Green back in 2004.
One other team to keep in mind–the Chicago Blackhawks. Though at this point it may be a longshot due to their struggles, the Red Wings could ease the burden of the cap hit by absorbing 50% of it to grab either a prospect or a draft pick. There’s no secret that Chicago needs a few more pieces on the blue line and Green’s offensive upside could be of help, especially for a power play that has been abysmal this season.
Likelihood of a Trade
It’s not if he’ll be traded but when. There are a lot of question marks in Detroit–first and foremost being the future of Ken Holland. Though not in it for the rebuild, Holland’s hand has been forced as its evident the Wings are nowhere near a playoff team or contender. Holland is also in the final year of a contract with no talks of an extension. In the salary cap era, Holland has been reluctant to trade and when he has, the returns have often been underwhelming. The Red Wings need as many high picks as they can get and unless the market dictates it, it will be tough to pry a first round pick away for him. Second and third round picks seem the likeliest options for him, if not a prospect as well. Holland needs to be creative and Green provides his best chance at a nice return.
All that remains to be seen is whether it’s closer to the deadline or sooner.