The Busiest Day Of The Summer: Six Months Later
Thursday, December 29 marks the six-month anniversary of the wildest 23 minutes in NHL history.
On June 29, the Oilers traded Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson, the Canadiens traded P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber, and the Tampa Bay Lightning signed captain Steven Stamkos to an eight-year extension. All three of those moves came between 2:34pm and 2:57pm.
So far, the results have been mixed for the teams involved: the Devils are last in the Metropolitan Division, the Oilers are finally a playoff contender, the Canadiens are back to tops in their division, and Stamkos is likely to miss the last four-to-six months of the season.
Let’s take a closer look at the initial results for each team:
Edmonton Oilers — The decision to trade Hall was not popular in the Edmonton market. The former face of the Oilers rebuild had become one of the top left wingers in the world, behind only Alex Ovechkin and Jamie Benn on most rankings. Hall had 328 points in 381 games with the Oilers, despite the Oilers lack of NHL defensemen and centers for much of his tenure there. Ultimately, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli felt comfortable replacing Hall with free agent Milan Lucic in order to secure a young, right-handed defenseman on a good contract. So far, Larsson has helped stabilize the Oilers defense with solid, if unspectacular play. Larsson has just six points in 36 games, but has developed chemistry with Oscar Klefbom on the Oilers future top pairing. The Oilers are currently second in the Pacific Division, and are showing real improvement over the last seven seasons. However, they are still a few pieces away from becoming a real contender, despite Connor McDavid‘s excellent play. While Larsson has been solid, the Oilers definitely gave up value on the trade, making this trade, at best, a passing grade for Chiarelli. Devils GM Ray Shero told Elliotte Friedman that “people want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team.” If the Oilers don’t manage to make the playoffs this season, then the pressure on Chiarelli will increase tenfold.
Montreal Canadiens — If the decision to trade Hall was considered unpopular in Edmonton, the Subban trade was even more so when the deal was announced. Subban had been a key fixture of the Montreal community in his six full seasons there. However, the final year of his tenure was full of controversy, beginning with Subban’s $10MM donation to the local children’s hospital. Many read into Max Pacioretty being named captain over Subban, and the conspicuous lack of a King Clancy nomination (for community leadership and humanitarian contributions) from his teammates. Then Carey Price got hurt and the Canadiens season went to hell. Whispers of trade rumors began. In particular, a February incident where Canadiens coach Michel Therrien singled out Subban for a give-away that led to a game-winning goal versus the Avalanche led to intensified rumors. Nothing seemed likely until the Predators offered Shea Weber just after the draft in June. The trade was much maligned for Weber’s age and the perception that his abilities were declining. That hasn’t proven to be the case just yet, as Weber has been the catalyst for the Canadiens resurgence. He has 20 points in 35 games so far, on pace for 25 goals and 57 points, both of which would represent career-highs. TSN’s Darren Dreger appeared on Montreal radio on Thursday morning and declared the Canadiens as the current winners of the trade. Weber’s presence and style of play is, by Dreger’s estimation, a better fit “for what the Montreal Canadiens needed.”
Nashville Predators — When news of the Subban-Weber trade came down, most in the hockey world couldn’t believe the news. No one could think of the last time two superstar captains and giants in their local community were traded for each other, one for one. The enormity of the deal was not lost on the two teams, with one front office member telling Friedman “I think both teams had moments where they couldn’t believe what they were considering.” Weber had been a pillar in Nashville since he first broke into the NHL, but the tough Western Conference was beginning to catch up with him. Defense partner Roman Josi was considered to be the better passer and skater, and some argued Josi was carrying the pair. With the Predators entering a new window of Cup contention, getting younger and more mobile became a priority, especially after trading Seth Jones in January. Subban’s style of play fits the Predators’ plans better. So far, Subban has 17 points in 29 games (a 58-point pace) but has been hurt since the middle of December. The Predators are barely above .500 and two points out of the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference. The trade definitely looks better for the Canadiens as of this writing, but the Predators are sure to figure things out soon. Considering Subban is four years younger than Weber, Nashville’s window should be open longer with Subban over Weber. That’s what GM David Poile wanted when he took the risk to move Weber, but he obviously feels the reward is worth it to add Subban to an already dynamic group of defensemen in Nashville. Let’s call this one a temporary win for Montreal with Nashville looking better long-term.
New Jersey Devils — After the trade went through, Shero told Friedman that he felt the Devils had the defensive depth to make the trade, referencing his time with the Penguins, where he traded Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski with with the knowledge that Kris Letang was up and coming. The Devils clearly believe that Damon Severson has the ability to become a top-pairing defenseman and replace Larsson. What New Jersey did not have was an up and coming offensive dynamo remotely close to Hall’s skill level. Shero told Friedman that teams had asked about Larsson’s availability and were told the only way that he would trade Larsson “is if it really makes sense.” Acquiring a franchise offensive player made sense. Hall has performed admirably for the Devils, and is currently on pace to score 54 points in 64 games while battling injuries. Unfortunately for the Devils, they remain in last place in their division and look unlikely to make the playoffs. The situation must be frustratingly familiar for Hall, who spent six seasons in Edmonton scoring at a high level with little defensive support. As mentioned above, the Devils clearly won the trade based on trade value, but as Shero said it’s all about building a team. Shero will need to build more support for franchise players Hall and Cory Schneider to work their way up the standings. If you ignore Edmonton being in contention for a playoff spot and New Jersey being in the lottery watch, New Jersey won the trade, hands down. Take team building into consideration, and the trade looks a little closer. It’s still a clear win for the Devils to acquire a legitimate superstar for less than full trade value.
Tampa Bay Lightning — Had it happened on any other day during the previous year, Stamkos re-signing in Tampa Bay would have dominated the news cycle for at least two or three days. But after the craziness of the half-hour preceding the announcement, it seemed to take something of a backseat to the pair of blockbuster trades. Stamkos took less than his perceived market value to stay in Tampa Bay where his heart is. He’s expressed his desire to retire as a member of the Lightning. Lightning GM Steve Yzerman told Friedman that he really didn’t know what would happen: “I wasn’t really sure what was going to happen. In the last week, we had no control.” But Stamkos ultimately chose to stay in Tampa Bay. With his blood clot and contract cleared up, Stamkos got off to a torrid start, scoring 20 points in 17 games. He was on pace for a 52-goal, 105-point season before a lateral meniscus tear put his season on hold until March at the earliest. There is some risk to having a player signed for eight years with three consecutive season-ending injuries (fractured tibia, blood clot, and meniscus tear). Injuries aside, signing a superstar scorer for $8.5MM per season long-term is a great deal for the Lightning, and leaves Yzerman room to do his best to keep the Lighting’s core together. Should Stamkos be able to stay healthy, then there’s no question that both sides will consider this contract a win.
Early Returns On Summer Blockbusters
Typically, free agency items dominate hockey headlines in the latter days of June. However, the events of June 29th changed that dynamic in the 2016 offseason. First, the marquee name available in free agency, Steven Stamkos, agreed to remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning, inking an eight-year extension with the team and effectively ruining the offseason plans of several other NHL clubs. Second, a pair of rare, player-for-player blockbuster trades were completed, shocking all who follow and cover the league.
Desperately searching to upgrade the team’s blue line, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli agreed to ship top-line left wing Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Not long after that deal was announced, the Nashville Predators dealt team captain and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber to Montreal for the electric P.K. Subban.
While it’s too early to make any definitive judgments as to which teams may have come out ahead in their respective exchanges, it is possible to analyze the early returns and see how much each club has benefited from the transactions.
Montreal – While there is no question P.K. Subban is a supremely skilled player, as the 2015-16 season played out it appeared as if head coach Michel Therrien and GM Marc Bergevin had grown weary of the defender’s high-risk, high-reward playing style. In Weber they get a veteran blue liner who boasts the league’s hardest shot and one who has long been a stalwart for Team Canada in numerous international events. Weber has also had a productive start to his Habs career, with eight goals and 18 points through 27 games.
Nashville – The team may have lost the longtime face of their franchise but they did add a dynamic talent who is four years Weber’s junior and has perhaps a more favorable contractual situation. While Subban’s cap hit is more than $1M higher annually through the 2021-22 campaign, his contract expires four years earlier than Weber’s and does not come with the likelihood of a cap recapture penalty. Subban is slowly growing more comfortable in his new home and has produced nearly identical numbers to his counterpart, tallying seven goals and 17 points through 26 contests.
Verdict – With Montreal currently sitting in the top spot in the Eastern Conference it’s hard to argue the trade hasn’t paid off exactly as Bergevin hoped. Weber plays a more conservative style of hockey which Therrien clearly prefers and he is still an impact player at both ends of the ice. On the flip side Subban gives the Nashville market a huge personality and a bankable star. He has quickly endeared himself to the Predators fans off the ice and is still producing on the ice. This deal has worked out for both clubs about as well as could have been hoped.
New Jersey – After ranking dead last in goals scored in 2015-16, the Devils desperately needed an infusion of skill and that’s exactly what they got in Hall. In 19 games this season, Hall is averaging better than a point-per-game for his new team and gives the Devils a legitimate, goal-scoring threat they haven’t had since Zach Parise resided in Jersey.
Edmonton – Larsson doesn’t contribute much in the offensive end of the ice – just six points in 30 contests this season – but has at least provided steady play on the back end for Edmonton. Chiarelli perhaps could have pursued a more dynamic player to address his team’s dire need on the blue line but Larsson came with the cost-certainty that RFA options like Mathew Dumba and Jacob Trouba did not. The Oilers will soon have to consider extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – neither of which will come cheap – and getting Larsson in the midst of a long-term deal with a manageable cap hit carries additional value.
Verdict – Hall is clearly the better and more valuable player, both today and into the future. But to Chiarelli’s credit, he knew his team needed to improve on the back end and was willing to lose the trade to make his team better. It’s probable the Oilers GM simply was not content maintaining the status quo and made the best deal available to upgrade the blue line. With the Oilers at the top of the Pacific Division standings, Chiarelli is likely pleased with how this deal has worked out for Edmonton.
Friedman’s Latest: Cap, Islanders, Purcell, Cowen
In the latest edition of his wonderful 30 Thoughts column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman touched on a wide variety of topics of interest to hockey fans, including where the salary cap is expected to land for the 2017-18 season.
- At this month’s GM meetings, managers are expecting to receive a preliminary number for the salary cap. Friedman reported that a couple GMs are “hoping for $75MM.”
That would be an increase of $2MM over the current $73MM ceiling. Last summer, the cap went up by just $1.6MM, which was a smaller increase than what most teams were expecting, and also one of the smaller increases in cap history. The cap has risen by more than $3MM six times since it was implemented in 2005-06. - After discussing the New York Islanders management situation, Friedman joked that “one day I’m going to ply GM Garth Snow with enough truth serum to find out how hard he planned to go after Steven Stamkos, what he was going to offer, and how that affected his July 1, 2016 decisions.”
The off-season did not go as planned for the Islanders, who lost Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen to free agency and replaced them with Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera. Ladd has just three goals and six points this season, and is signed for seven years. He’s a prominent member of Pro Hockey Rumors’ 2016 UFA All-Bust Team. - As we speculated when he was placed on waivers, the Los Angeles Kings had tried to trade Teddy Purcell before placing him on waivers. However, they were not willing to take a contract back, as we suggested most teams would offer. Friedman suggested Ottawa could have interest, as Purcell previously played for Senators head coach Guy Boucher when the pair were in Tampa Bay, but it doesn’t work at the moment for budget reasons. Friedman says he “wouldn’t be surprised if someone takes a chance” later in the season
- Finally, with Jared Cowen‘s arbitration result due to come later today, Friedman pointed out that a Cowen win would “wreak havoc” on next year’s cap for the Maple Leafs because of rookie bonus overages. Currently Cowen’s buyout is a $650K cap credit for Toronto, but that could change to a $3.1MM cap hit depending on whether or not the arbitrator deems Cowen was healthy enough to buy-out in the summer (numbers via Cap Friendly).
Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft
Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.
Each team has the right to protect either:
A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender
or
B) Eight skaters, one goaltender
These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.
The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.
Lightning Place Steven Stamkos On LTIR, Demote Erik Condra
The Tampa Bay Lightning have placed Steven Stamkos on long-term injury reserve, reports CapFriendly (Twitter link). To maximize their potential space, the team recalled prospect defenseman Ben Thomas from Syracuse over the weekend for one day and then sent him back down. By bringing Thomas up before placing Stamkos on LTIR, the Lightning were within $40K of the cap at the time of his placement which increased the amount of LTIR room to work with. As a result, Tampa Bay has a little over $8.45MM in cap space to work with while Stamkos is out of the lineup.
If Stamkos progresses well in his rehab from surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee and is projected to return late in the year, it’s unlikely that GM Steve Yzerman would make a bigger move to replace Stamkos as they wouldn’t be able to activate him until they’re back in cap compliance which would be difficult if they added a high salaried player to take his spot.
However, if they feel it’s likely that he’ll be out for the remainder of the season – a realistic possibility considering the four-to-six month projected recovery time – then they could add a bigger salary or two between now and the trade deadline. There is no salary cap in the playoffs so even if the Lightning’s postseason roster was over the cap ceiling, it wouldn’t constitute a cap violation. Chicago executed that to perfection a couple of years ago with Patrick Kane’s LTIR placement allowing them to add Antoine Vermette late in the season.
It will still be a while before Tampa Bay can realistically expect a revised timeline for a return date for their captain so in the meantime, it’s likely that they will look to fill his spot from within. One player who it looked like was going to get a chance was right winger Erik Condra but that doesn’t appear to be the case now as the team announced that they have sent him back to Syracuse of the AHL before he appeared in a single game for the Lightning.
[Related: Lightning Depth Chart]
Injury Notes: Hertl, Sharp, Bortuzzo
Tomas Hertl has flown back to San Jose to undergo an MRI on his knee, according to Kevin Kurz of CSN. The Sharks forward injured himself in the second period last night, leaving the game and not returning. While the extent of the injury is unknown, “waiting for MRI results” has not been a nice feeling for fans around the league of late; both Steven Stamkos and Taylor Hall received terrible news following trips home for examination.
If Hertl is to miss any length of time, it would adversely affect a Sharks squad that is already having trouble scoring goals. With 39 goals scored, they rank ahead of only the Vancouver Canucks and Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference. While the team is still carrying a positive 9-8-0 record through the first 17 games, losing one of their top scoring threats would be devastating.
- Patrick Sharp is set to make his return to the lineup Saturday night for the Dallas Stars. The veteran sniper has missed the last fourteen games with a concussion suffered on a hit from Brayden McNabb in October. The consistent scoring threat is coming off his eighth 20-goal season, and hoping to reach that mark again in what is a contract year for the 34-year old. Sharp is earning $5.9MM this season in the final year of a five-year, $29.5MM deal signed way back in 2011. Even at his advanced age he’s likely to be looking for a multi-year contract to end his career.
- The Blues are starting to get healthier, as Robert Bortuzzo will be returning this weekend as well. The defenseman has missed the past ten games with a lower-body injury, though it’s not a guarantee that he’ll crack the lineup right away. As Ken Hitchcock points out “The one challenge for us is we’re carrying lefty-righty right now and it’s working, so that’s something we’ve got to think about also.” With Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk ahead of him, Bortuzzo would have to beat out Colton Parayko to skate on the right side, which is much easier said than done the way the 23-year old has established himself this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning Update On Stamkos
The Tampa Bay Lightning have officially announced that captain Steven Stamkos underwent surgery today to repair a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee. Stamkos is not expected to return for at least four months. The announcement confirms previous reports by various media members earlier today.
Stamkos undergoes his second major injury absence in four years just months after signing a lucrative eight-year, $68MM contract in the offseason. His first was a broken tibia he sustained in the 2013-14 season that cost him 45 games. Stamkos’s latest injury is on the same leg as the first one, though it is unclear whether they are related.
The Lightning have just under $2.7MM in cap space, but could add more salary if they place Stamkos on Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR). The Lightning could be looking for someone like the Arizona Coyotes’ Martin Hanzal, an impending UFA with a reasonable $3.1MM cap hit. The Coyotes are shopping Hanzal and are looking for an NHL-ready forward in return.
Steven Stamkos To Undergo Knee Surgery, Out Four Months
Tampa Bay forward Steven Stamkos is heading to Vail, Colorado today to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a lateral meniscus tear, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie (Twitter link). While the Lightning are officially saying he’s out indefinitely, McKenzie adds in a follow-up tweet that the recovery period for this type of surgery is typically four months, if not longer. The injury was suffered in Tuesday’s victory over Detroit.
This is undoubtedly a huge loss for the Lightning as Stamkos not only has been one of their top scorers this year but also is near the top of the league in points. Through 17 games this year, he has nine goals and 11 assists despite averaging nearly two minutes less per game compared to last season.
Injuries have not been kind to Stamkos, who is in the first of an eight year deal with a cap hit of $8.5MM signed late in June to avoid free agency. In 2013-14, he missed more than half the season with a fractured tibia and just last season, he had surgery to repair a blood clot near his collarbone.
Given that he will be out until around March at the earliest based on McKenzie’s timeline, the Lightning are eligible to place him on Long-Term Injury Reserve to free up some cap space to pursue a short-term replacement, should they deem that necessary. In the meantime, it’s likely that center Valtteri Filppula will be asked to move into a top six role for Tampa Bay.
[Related: Lightning Depth Chart]
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Injury Notes: Gaudreau, Stamkos, Hall
Three superstars could be poised to miss some time due to injury.
Calgary Flames superstar Johnny Gaudreau broke his finger in Tuesday night’s 1-0 win over the Minnesota Wild, in which he scored the only goal in the game. The Wild played Gaudreau very hard, with several big hits and, according to one observer from the Canadian Press, 21 slashes over the course of the game.
John Shannon of Sportsnet tweeted that Gaudreau will require surgery on the broken finger, and the Flames have now confirmed. Though the team will give an update on recovery time later this week, Elliotte Friedman has heard that it may be 4-6 weeks.
It’s been a disappointing season for Gaudreau, who missed all of training camp while holding out for a new contract. He ended up signing a six-year, $40.5MM contract two days before the start of the regular season. Gaudreau has 11 points in 17 games, which is far off from his career average of 0.9 points per game. The Flames have struggled under a new coach, sitting fifth in the Pacific Division with just six wins in 17 games. They’ll have to put some consecutive wins up soon if they hope to remain in the playoff race, and now they’ll be doing it without their leading scorer.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos left his team’s win in Detroit last night with a right knee injury. The team announced on Wednesday morning that Stamkos has returned to Tampa Bay for “further evaluation” on his injured leg, which will include an MRI, according to Bob McKenzie. The Lightning are two games into a five game road trip, with Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Nashville still to come. Unless he rejoins them on the road, he’ll be out of the lineup until at least November 23 when the Flyers visit Tampa Bay.
With free agency no longer hanging over his head, Stamkos has been off to a hot start; before leaving the game he scored his 20th point in 17 games. The Lightning are off to a good start, sitting tied for second in the Atlantic Division with 21 points.
Stamkos won’t be the only star getting an MRI on Wednesday: New Jersey Devils leading scorer Taylor Hall will also be getting his knee checked out. Hall missed Tuesday night’s game with a “lower-body injury” that McKenzie now labels as a knee injury.
According to Andrew Gross of Fire and Ice, Devils coach John Hynes said yesterday that Hall “came to the rink [Tuesday] morning and something was bothering him a little bit so the trainers took a look at him.”
Hynes did not say when the injury occurred, and when asked if Hall’s injury was serious, replied “we don’t know.”
Hall has played very well for the Devils after being acquired in a summer blockbuster as part of the busiest day of the summer, which also included Stamkos re-signing in Tampa Bay.
Steven Stamkos Leaves Game With Injury
Update 11/16 (5:30): While the timeline for a return is unclear, Steven Stamkos has officially been diagnosed with a later meniscus tear, the team reports. As of now, the injury will keep the Lightning captain out “indefinitely”. This injury usually occurs when the knee twists in an unusual way, much like Stamkos’ awkward fall, damaging the cartilage in the joint. While a torn meniscus is a common injury, it does take some recovery time to return to full strength. A conservative estimate of when Tampa fans can see Stamkos back on the ice would be two to three months maximum. Some return earlier than that with surgery (rarely before four to six weeks), while others (see Rick DiPietro) never truly recover.
In tonight’s game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings, Bolts captains Steven Stamkos picked up his 20th point of the season with a first period goal to put Tampa Bay up 2-0. However, that will not be what most think when recalling this game. Minutes later, Stamkos fell awkwardly along the boards. His right leg appeared to be hyper-extended and stiff as he went down, and he came up clutching the back of his knee. Stamkos skated to the bench, unable to put weight on the leg, and went down the tunnel. The team announced he would not return to the game after suffering a lower body injury.
Stamkos has had bad luck with injury to that right leg already, having broken it about three years ago. Recovery from the injury limited Stamkos to just 37 games in 2013-14 and caused him to miss the 2014 Winter Olympic Games. He also missed five regular season games and nearly the entire postseason last year with a blood clot disorder.
While a talented Tampa Bay Lightning team is capable of winning without Stamkos, a generational talent like his certainly causes a team to suffer in his absence. Stamkos has already contributed nine goals and eleven assists in 2016-17 and has put up 72 and 64 points in the past two seasons. While Stamkos status as a free agent was expected to be one of the biggest story lines of the summer, the two sides agreed to an eight-year, $68MM extension on June 29th, putting to rest any thoughts of Stamkos playing elsewhere any time soon.
The Lightning and their fans certainly hope for the best, but as of now the optics do not look good. Should the captain miss an extended period of time, it will have a massive impact on Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup chances this season.