Early Returns On Summer Blockbusters
Typically, free agency items dominate hockey headlines in the latter days of June. However, the events of June 29th changed that dynamic in the 2016 offseason. First, the marquee name available in free agency, Steven Stamkos, agreed to remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning, inking an eight-year extension with the team and effectively ruining the offseason plans of several other NHL clubs. Second, a pair of rare, player-for-player blockbuster trades were completed, shocking all who follow and cover the league.
Desperately searching to upgrade the team’s blue line, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli agreed to ship top-line left wing Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Not long after that deal was announced, the Nashville Predators dealt team captain and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber to Montreal for the electric P.K. Subban.
While it’s too early to make any definitive judgments as to which teams may have come out ahead in their respective exchanges, it is possible to analyze the early returns and see how much each club has benefited from the transactions.
Montreal – While there is no question P.K. Subban is a supremely skilled player, as the 2015-16 season played out it appeared as if head coach Michel Therrien and GM Marc Bergevin had grown weary of the defender’s high-risk, high-reward playing style. In Weber they get a veteran blue liner who boasts the league’s hardest shot and one who has long been a stalwart for Team Canada in numerous international events. Weber has also had a productive start to his Habs career, with eight goals and 18 points through 27 games.
Nashville – The team may have lost the longtime face of their franchise but they did add a dynamic talent who is four years Weber’s junior and has perhaps a more favorable contractual situation. While Subban’s cap hit is more than $1M higher annually through the 2021-22 campaign, his contract expires four years earlier than Weber’s and does not come with the likelihood of a cap recapture penalty. Subban is slowly growing more comfortable in his new home and has produced nearly identical numbers to his counterpart, tallying seven goals and 17 points through 26 contests.
Verdict – With Montreal currently sitting in the top spot in the Eastern Conference it’s hard to argue the trade hasn’t paid off exactly as Bergevin hoped. Weber plays a more conservative style of hockey which Therrien clearly prefers and he is still an impact player at both ends of the ice. On the flip side Subban gives the Nashville market a huge personality and a bankable star. He has quickly endeared himself to the Predators fans off the ice and is still producing on the ice. This deal has worked out for both clubs about as well as could have been hoped.
New Jersey – After ranking dead last in goals scored in 2015-16, the Devils desperately needed an infusion of skill and that’s exactly what they got in Hall. In 19 games this season, Hall is averaging better than a point-per-game for his new team and gives the Devils a legitimate, goal-scoring threat they haven’t had since Zach Parise resided in Jersey.
Edmonton – Larsson doesn’t contribute much in the offensive end of the ice – just six points in 30 contests this season – but has at least provided steady play on the back end for Edmonton. Chiarelli perhaps could have pursued a more dynamic player to address his team’s dire need on the blue line but Larsson came with the cost-certainty that RFA options like Mathew Dumba and Jacob Trouba did not. The Oilers will soon have to consider extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – neither of which will come cheap – and getting Larsson in the midst of a long-term deal with a manageable cap hit carries additional value.
Verdict – Hall is clearly the better and more valuable player, both today and into the future. But to Chiarelli’s credit, he knew his team needed to improve on the back end and was willing to lose the trade to make his team better. It’s probable the Oilers GM simply was not content maintaining the status quo and made the best deal available to upgrade the blue line. With the Oilers at the top of the Pacific Division standings, Chiarelli is likely pleased with how this deal has worked out for Edmonton.
Friedman’s Latest: Cap, Islanders, Purcell, Cowen
In the latest edition of his wonderful 30 Thoughts column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman touched on a wide variety of topics of interest to hockey fans, including where the salary cap is expected to land for the 2017-18 season.
- At this month’s GM meetings, managers are expecting to receive a preliminary number for the salary cap. Friedman reported that a couple GMs are “hoping for $75MM.”
That would be an increase of $2MM over the current $73MM ceiling. Last summer, the cap went up by just $1.6MM, which was a smaller increase than what most teams were expecting, and also one of the smaller increases in cap history. The cap has risen by more than $3MM six times since it was implemented in 2005-06. - After discussing the New York Islanders management situation, Friedman joked that “one day I’m going to ply GM Garth Snow with enough truth serum to find out how hard he planned to go after Steven Stamkos, what he was going to offer, and how that affected his July 1, 2016 decisions.”
The off-season did not go as planned for the Islanders, who lost Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen to free agency and replaced them with Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera. Ladd has just three goals and six points this season, and is signed for seven years. He’s a prominent member of Pro Hockey Rumors’ 2016 UFA All-Bust Team. - As we speculated when he was placed on waivers, the Los Angeles Kings had tried to trade Teddy Purcell before placing him on waivers. However, they were not willing to take a contract back, as we suggested most teams would offer. Friedman suggested Ottawa could have interest, as Purcell previously played for Senators head coach Guy Boucher when the pair were in Tampa Bay, but it doesn’t work at the moment for budget reasons. Friedman says he “wouldn’t be surprised if someone takes a chance” later in the season
- Finally, with Jared Cowen‘s arbitration result due to come later today, Friedman pointed out that a Cowen win would “wreak havoc” on next year’s cap for the Maple Leafs because of rookie bonus overages. Currently Cowen’s buyout is a $650K cap credit for Toronto, but that could change to a $3.1MM cap hit depending on whether or not the arbitrator deems Cowen was healthy enough to buy-out in the summer (numbers via Cap Friendly).
Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft
Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.
Each team has the right to protect either:
A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender
or
B) Eight skaters, one goaltender
These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.
The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.
Lightning Place Steven Stamkos On LTIR, Demote Erik Condra
The Tampa Bay Lightning have placed Steven Stamkos on long-term injury reserve, reports CapFriendly (Twitter link). To maximize their potential space, the team recalled prospect defenseman Ben Thomas from Syracuse over the weekend for one day and then sent him back down. By bringing Thomas up before placing Stamkos on LTIR, the Lightning were within $40K of the cap at the time of his placement which increased the amount of LTIR room to work with. As a result, Tampa Bay has a little over $8.45MM in cap space to work with while Stamkos is out of the lineup.
If Stamkos progresses well in his rehab from surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee and is projected to return late in the year, it’s unlikely that GM Steve Yzerman would make a bigger move to replace Stamkos as they wouldn’t be able to activate him until they’re back in cap compliance which would be difficult if they added a high salaried player to take his spot.
However, if they feel it’s likely that he’ll be out for the remainder of the season – a realistic possibility considering the four-to-six month projected recovery time – then they could add a bigger salary or two between now and the trade deadline. There is no salary cap in the playoffs so even if the Lightning’s postseason roster was over the cap ceiling, it wouldn’t constitute a cap violation. Chicago executed that to perfection a couple of years ago with Patrick Kane’s LTIR placement allowing them to add Antoine Vermette late in the season.
It will still be a while before Tampa Bay can realistically expect a revised timeline for a return date for their captain so in the meantime, it’s likely that they will look to fill his spot from within. One player who it looked like was going to get a chance was right winger Erik Condra but that doesn’t appear to be the case now as the team announced that they have sent him back to Syracuse of the AHL before he appeared in a single game for the Lightning.
[Related: Lightning Depth Chart]
Injury Notes: Hertl, Sharp, Bortuzzo
Tomas Hertl has flown back to San Jose to undergo an MRI on his knee, according to Kevin Kurz of CSN. The Sharks forward injured himself in the second period last night, leaving the game and not returning. While the extent of the injury is unknown, “waiting for MRI results” has not been a nice feeling for fans around the league of late; both Steven Stamkos and Taylor Hall received terrible news following trips home for examination.
If Hertl is to miss any length of time, it would adversely affect a Sharks squad that is already having trouble scoring goals. With 39 goals scored, they rank ahead of only the Vancouver Canucks and Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference. While the team is still carrying a positive 9-8-0 record through the first 17 games, losing one of their top scoring threats would be devastating.
- Patrick Sharp is set to make his return to the lineup Saturday night for the Dallas Stars. The veteran sniper has missed the last fourteen games with a concussion suffered on a hit from Brayden McNabb in October. The consistent scoring threat is coming off his eighth 20-goal season, and hoping to reach that mark again in what is a contract year for the 34-year old. Sharp is earning $5.9MM this season in the final year of a five-year, $29.5MM deal signed way back in 2011. Even at his advanced age he’s likely to be looking for a multi-year contract to end his career.
- The Blues are starting to get healthier, as Robert Bortuzzo will be returning this weekend as well. The defenseman has missed the past ten games with a lower-body injury, though it’s not a guarantee that he’ll crack the lineup right away. As Ken Hitchcock points out “The one challenge for us is we’re carrying lefty-righty right now and it’s working, so that’s something we’ve got to think about also.” With Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk ahead of him, Bortuzzo would have to beat out Colton Parayko to skate on the right side, which is much easier said than done the way the 23-year old has established himself this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning Update On Stamkos
The Tampa Bay Lightning have officially announced that captain Steven Stamkos underwent surgery today to repair a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee. Stamkos is not expected to return for at least four months. The announcement confirms previous reports by various media members earlier today.
Stamkos undergoes his second major injury absence in four years just months after signing a lucrative eight-year, $68MM contract in the offseason. His first was a broken tibia he sustained in the 2013-14 season that cost him 45 games. Stamkos’s latest injury is on the same leg as the first one, though it is unclear whether they are related.
The Lightning have just under $2.7MM in cap space, but could add more salary if they place Stamkos on Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR). The Lightning could be looking for someone like the Arizona Coyotes’ Martin Hanzal, an impending UFA with a reasonable $3.1MM cap hit. The Coyotes are shopping Hanzal and are looking for an NHL-ready forward in return.
Steven Stamkos To Undergo Knee Surgery, Out Four Months
Tampa Bay forward Steven Stamkos is heading to Vail, Colorado today to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a lateral meniscus tear, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie (Twitter link). While the Lightning are officially saying he’s out indefinitely, McKenzie adds in a follow-up tweet that the recovery period for this type of surgery is typically four months, if not longer. The injury was suffered in Tuesday’s victory over Detroit.
This is undoubtedly a huge loss for the Lightning as Stamkos not only has been one of their top scorers this year but also is near the top of the league in points. Through 17 games this year, he has nine goals and 11 assists despite averaging nearly two minutes less per game compared to last season.
Injuries have not been kind to Stamkos, who is in the first of an eight year deal with a cap hit of $8.5MM signed late in June to avoid free agency. In 2013-14, he missed more than half the season with a fractured tibia and just last season, he had surgery to repair a blood clot near his collarbone.
Given that he will be out until around March at the earliest based on McKenzie’s timeline, the Lightning are eligible to place him on Long-Term Injury Reserve to free up some cap space to pursue a short-term replacement, should they deem that necessary. In the meantime, it’s likely that center Valtteri Filppula will be asked to move into a top six role for Tampa Bay.
[Related: Lightning Depth Chart]
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Injury Notes: Gaudreau, Stamkos, Hall
Three superstars could be poised to miss some time due to injury.
Calgary Flames superstar Johnny Gaudreau broke his finger in Tuesday night’s 1-0 win over the Minnesota Wild, in which he scored the only goal in the game. The Wild played Gaudreau very hard, with several big hits and, according to one observer from the Canadian Press, 21 slashes over the course of the game.
John Shannon of Sportsnet tweeted that Gaudreau will require surgery on the broken finger, and the Flames have now confirmed. Though the team will give an update on recovery time later this week, Elliotte Friedman has heard that it may be 4-6 weeks.
It’s been a disappointing season for Gaudreau, who missed all of training camp while holding out for a new contract. He ended up signing a six-year, $40.5MM contract two days before the start of the regular season. Gaudreau has 11 points in 17 games, which is far off from his career average of 0.9 points per game. The Flames have struggled under a new coach, sitting fifth in the Pacific Division with just six wins in 17 games. They’ll have to put some consecutive wins up soon if they hope to remain in the playoff race, and now they’ll be doing it without their leading scorer.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos left his team’s win in Detroit last night with a right knee injury. The team announced on Wednesday morning that Stamkos has returned to Tampa Bay for “further evaluation” on his injured leg, which will include an MRI, according to Bob McKenzie. The Lightning are two games into a five game road trip, with Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Nashville still to come. Unless he rejoins them on the road, he’ll be out of the lineup until at least November 23 when the Flyers visit Tampa Bay.
With free agency no longer hanging over his head, Stamkos has been off to a hot start; before leaving the game he scored his 20th point in 17 games. The Lightning are off to a good start, sitting tied for second in the Atlantic Division with 21 points.
Stamkos won’t be the only star getting an MRI on Wednesday: New Jersey Devils leading scorer Taylor Hall will also be getting his knee checked out. Hall missed Tuesday night’s game with a “lower-body injury” that McKenzie now labels as a knee injury.
According to Andrew Gross of Fire and Ice, Devils coach John Hynes said yesterday that Hall “came to the rink [Tuesday] morning and something was bothering him a little bit so the trainers took a look at him.”
Hynes did not say when the injury occurred, and when asked if Hall’s injury was serious, replied “we don’t know.”
Hall has played very well for the Devils after being acquired in a summer blockbuster as part of the busiest day of the summer, which also included Stamkos re-signing in Tampa Bay.
Steven Stamkos Leaves Game With Injury
Update 11/16 (5:30): While the timeline for a return is unclear, Steven Stamkos has officially been diagnosed with a later meniscus tear, the team reports. As of now, the injury will keep the Lightning captain out “indefinitely”. This injury usually occurs when the knee twists in an unusual way, much like Stamkos’ awkward fall, damaging the cartilage in the joint. While a torn meniscus is a common injury, it does take some recovery time to return to full strength. A conservative estimate of when Tampa fans can see Stamkos back on the ice would be two to three months maximum. Some return earlier than that with surgery (rarely before four to six weeks), while others (see Rick DiPietro) never truly recover.
In tonight’s game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings, Bolts captains Steven Stamkos picked up his 20th point of the season with a first period goal to put Tampa Bay up 2-0. However, that will not be what most think when recalling this game. Minutes later, Stamkos fell awkwardly along the boards. His right leg appeared to be hyper-extended and stiff as he went down, and he came up clutching the back of his knee. Stamkos skated to the bench, unable to put weight on the leg, and went down the tunnel. The team announced he would not return to the game after suffering a lower body injury.
Stamkos has had bad luck with injury to that right leg already, having broken it about three years ago. Recovery from the injury limited Stamkos to just 37 games in 2013-14 and caused him to miss the 2014 Winter Olympic Games. He also missed five regular season games and nearly the entire postseason last year with a blood clot disorder.
While a talented Tampa Bay Lightning team is capable of winning without Stamkos, a generational talent like his certainly causes a team to suffer in his absence. Stamkos has already contributed nine goals and eleven assists in 2016-17 and has put up 72 and 64 points in the past two seasons. While Stamkos status as a free agent was expected to be one of the biggest story lines of the summer, the two sides agreed to an eight-year, $68MM extension on June 29th, putting to rest any thoughts of Stamkos playing elsewhere any time soon.
The Lightning and their fans certainly hope for the best, but as of now the optics do not look good. Should the captain miss an extended period of time, it will have a massive impact on Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup chances this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning Recall Cory Conacher
According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the Tampa Bay Lightning have recalled Cory Conacher from the AHL to fill in for Nikita Kucherov while he’s out with injury. Kucherov is listed as day-to-day after falling into the boards awkwardly last night.
Conacher last played in the NHL in 2014-15 for the New York Islanders, and since has bounced around the AHL and Swiss league. Last year for Bern of the NLA he posted 52 points in 48 games, his most productive professional season since 2011-12. The diminutive winger has never found much consistent success in the NHL, though is at least an experienced body to plug into the lineup.
For the Lightning, losing Kucherov for any length of time would be devastating, as the winger is arguably their top forward outside of Steven Stamkos and is a huge part of their offense. While at the moment it doesn’t seem serious, it’ll be interesting to see who takes his spot in the top six.