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Steven Stamkos

Snapshots: Playoff Format, Sedlak, Lightning

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If you’re an Atlantic Division team looking at the current playoff seeding, why would you want to go after the division crown? That’s what Pierre LeBrun wonders in his latest column for TSN. The top Atlantic team will have to face one—most likely the New York Rangers—of the four dominant Metropolitan teams, all of which have more points than the currently leading Montreal Canadiens.  That system may need some tweaking argues LeBrun, who suggests going back to the straight divisional playoffs that brewed long-standing rivalries.

For what it’s worth, it doesn’t seem like the GMs have much interest in changing the format, with one telling LeBrun “it’s all cyclical. Some years some divisions are stronger.” It may not even matter, as Montreal has dominated the Rangers this season. With a 3-0 record, they are likely looking forward to  a first round matchup.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have activated Lukas Sedlak from injured reserve today, as he has healed completely from the oblique strain that’s kept him out for a month. The 23-year old has 12 points in 55 games this season, his first in the NHL. Never much of an offensive player, Sedlak prides himself on his defensive and faceoff success and the analytics show it. The young centerman has been an elite shot suppressor in his first season, exactly what you want from a fourth-line player.
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to Brayden Point to lead their team again tonight as Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov and Cedric Paquette remain out. Byron Froese was recalled earlier today and will figure into a lineup that was already missing Steven Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula and Brian Boyle from the start of the year. Point will have to get by a former teammate in Morgan Rielly, who he played as a 15-year old for the Moose Jaw Warriors of the WHL.

East Notes: Weegar, Namestnikov, Islanders

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After Aaron Ekblad was taken out of Saturday’s game for the Florida Panthers, it looks like he’ll be out for at least a while with a concussion. In the meantime, the Panthers are expected to recall MacKenzie Weegar, according to George Richards of the Miami Herald. The 23-year old has developed steadily in the minors since being selected in the seventh round (206th overall) of the 2013 draft. With 12 goals and 29 points this season, Weegar has been Springfield’s “best defenseman overall” according to Eric Joyce, the Panthers’ assistant general manager.

Weegar will likely make his NHL debut against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night, as the Panthers try to stay relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Now seven points behind Toronto for the final playoff spot, their current five game losing streak has all but dashed those postseason hopes completely.

  • Vladislav Namestnikov was at Lightning practice this morning in a regular jersey according to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. One of the three Lightning centermen that were injured last Thursday, it would be huge if he could return so quickly. With Tampa just three points back of the Maple Leafs, this back-to-back against the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators is crucial to their season hopes. Today, the team called up Byron Froese to give them some depth up the middle, but hopefully Namestnikov can still return either tonight or tomorrow.
  • Both Tyler Johnson and Cedric Paquette missed the skate entirely, with Smith not convinced Paquette even made the trip to New York. That likely explains why Froese was called up, though it doesn’t bode well for the Lightning.
  • Smith also reports that Steven Stamkos again skated before the rest of the team as he continues to work his way back. Wednesday would mark four months since he last appeared in a game, the minimum amount of time he was expected to miss. If the Lightning have any chance of taking and holding a playoff spot, they’ll need their captain back sooner than later.
  • The New York Islanders had some friendly faces back at their morning skate, as Alan Quine and Casey Cizikas both stayed on after their pre-skate workout to practice with the team according to Arthur Staple of Newsday. Though they’re both “close, but not ready”, it is definitely a good sign for a team battling for their playoff lives. Cizikas is a very important piece to their lineup, able to move up and down whenever needed. After returning home from their nine-game road trip, the Islanders have a home-and-home with Carolina tonight and tomorrow. They currently sit just a point back of Toronto, and have as good of a chance as anyone to take home that final wildcard position.

Lightning Lose Two Players During Wild Game

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The Tampa Bay Lightning may be dominating the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Wild so far tonight, but they’ve lost two regular forwards in the process.

According to ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun, Tyler Johnson and Vladislav Namestnikov have both left the game with lower-body injuries and will not return.

Namestnikov left the game clutching his left leg; Tampa Bay Times reporter Joe Smith tweeted that the injury “doesn’t look good.” After the Lightning went up 3-0 on the Wild, Johnson was hit by winger Nino Niederreiter and needed to be helped off the ice by his teammates.

If Johnson is out for any extending time, it could seriously hurt the Lightning’s slim playoff chances. He has 43 points in 63 games, good for third in team scoring. However, a serious injury to Johnson could be partially relieved by Steven Stamkos’ impending return to the lineup.

Namestnikov, meanwhile, has 24 points in 61 games, which ranks eighth on the Lightning for the season.

Injury Notes: Stamkos, Borowiecki, Kinkaid

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Steven Stamkos was again skating with teammates this morning, as he inches his way back to the lineup. While there is a good chance the Tampa Bay Lightning captain will return to the ice this season he might not be as effective right away. That’s what Zach Parise told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times a few weeks ago, speaking from experience. Parise had the same surgery on his knee in November of 2010, and though he returned later that year as well, didn’t feel right until the following Christmas.

I’d say it took probably a year and a half to get back to feeling back to normal. That’s what my therapist said, six months to heal, a year you feel better. But to get back to that level for me, I feel like it was almost the following Christmas.

So Stamkos, who may get a chance to help his team in a playoff race—the Lightning are just four points out with 17 games left to play—likely won’t be the elite offensive presence he’s proven to be over the past eight years. Fear not Lightning fans, though Parise says he didn’t feel right until Christmas, he still scored 30 goals and 69 points the year following surgery. It wasn’t all bad.

Atlantic Notes: Beleskey, Leafs, St. Louis

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Since being injured on December 6th, Matt Beleskey hasn’t skated with the team once – until now. Beleskey returned to practice today to the cheers of his teammates, though he still was in a non-contact sweater. According to Joe Haggerty of CSNNE, the 28-year old winger was skating alongside David Krejci and David Backes when he did get into some rushes; otherwise that spot went to Frank Vatrano.

Beleskey was originally given a six-week timeline, which would be up on Tuesday, which looks like a possibility for the Bruins forward. Late next week might be more realistic, with Friday against Chicago being a likely target.

  • The Maple Leafs are back in action tonight after their bye week, and new backup Curtis McElhinney will wear #35 according to Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun. The Maple Leafs claimed McElhinney off waivers and are expected to give him his first start tomorrow against the Ottawa Senators.
  • The Maple Leafs are playing tonight at Madison Square Garden, where the Rangers are honoring Steven McDonald, a former police officer who passed away Tuesday. He had been a big fan of the Rangers since he was shot in the line of duty 20 years ago, and the team honored him by wearing throwback sweaters in warm-up that had #104 on the back – the number of McDonald’s precinct. McDonald was paralyzed from the neck down in the shooting, but instead of despair he has spread a message of forgiveness since his injury. Adam Graves and Mark Messier were on hand to escort McDonald’s wife and son to center ice.
  • In other pre-game ceremony news, the Tampa Bay Lightning retired Martin St. Louis’ number tonight with former head coach John Tortorella on hand to speak (Torts’ Columbus Blue Jackets are in town to face the Lightning). “He is a man who has been told ’no’ so many times in his career… I just have so much respect for him in how he did it.” Steven Stamkos also spoke about St. Louis, saying “He was, he still is, and he forever will be the heart and soul of this organization.” 

The Busiest Day Of The Summer: Six Months Later

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Thursday, December 29 marks the six-month anniversary of the wildest 23 minutes in NHL history.

On June 29, the Oilers traded Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson, the Canadiens traded P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber, and the Tampa Bay Lightning signed captain Steven Stamkos to an eight-year extension. All three of those moves came between 2:34pm and 2:57pm.

So far, the results have been mixed for the teams involved: the Devils are last in the Metropolitan Division, the Oilers are finally a playoff contender, the Canadiens are back to tops in their division, and Stamkos is likely to miss the last four-to-six months of the season.

Let’s take a closer look at the initial results for each team:

Edmonton Oilers — The decision to trade Hall was not popular in the Edmonton market. The former face of the Oilers rebuild had become one of the top left wingers in the world, behind only Alex Ovechkin and Jamie Benn on most rankings. Hall had 328 points in 381 games with the Oilers, despite the Oilers lack of NHL defensemen and centers for much of his tenure there. Ultimately, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli felt comfortable replacing Hall with free agent Milan Lucic in order to secure a young, right-handed defenseman on a good contract. So far, Larsson has helped stabilize the Oilers defense with solid, if unspectacular play. Larsson has just six points in 36 games, but has developed chemistry with Oscar Klefbom on the Oilers future top pairing. The Oilers are currently second in the Pacific Division, and are showing real improvement over the last seven seasons. However, they are still a few pieces away from becoming a real contender, despite Connor McDavid’s excellent play. While Larsson has been solid, the Oilers definitely gave up value on the trade, making this trade, at best, a passing grade for Chiarelli. Devils GM Ray Shero told Elliotte Friedman that “people want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team.” If the Oilers don’t manage to make the playoffs this season, then the pressure on Chiarelli will increase tenfold.

Montreal Canadiens — If the decision to trade Hall was considered unpopular in Edmonton, the Subban trade was even more so when the deal was announced. Subban had been a key fixture of the Montreal community in his six full seasons there. However, the final year of his tenure was full of controversy, beginning with Subban’s $10MM donation to the local children’s hospital. Many read into Max Pacioretty being named captain over Subban, and the conspicuous lack of a King Clancy nomination (for community leadership and humanitarian contributions) from his teammates. Then Carey Price got hurt and the Canadiens season went to hell. Whispers of trade rumors began. In particular, a February incident where Canadiens coach Michel Therrien singled out Subban for a give-away that led to a game-winning goal versus the Avalanche led to intensified rumors. Nothing seemed likely until the Predators offered Shea Weber just after the draft in June. The trade was much maligned for Weber’s age and the perception that his abilities were declining. That hasn’t proven to be the case just yet, as Weber has been the catalyst for the Canadiens resurgence. He has 20 points in 35 games so far, on pace for 25 goals and 57 points, both of which would represent career-highs. TSN’s Darren Dreger appeared on Montreal radio on Thursday morning and declared the Canadiens as the current winners of the trade. Weber’s presence and style of play is, by Dreger’s estimation, a better fit “for what the Montreal Canadiens needed.”

Nashville Predators — When news of the Subban-Weber trade came down, most in the hockey world couldn’t believe the news. No one could think of the last time two superstar captains and giants in their local community were traded for each other, one for one. The enormity of the deal was not lost on the two teams, with one front office member telling Friedman “I think both teams had moments where they couldn’t believe what they were considering.” Weber had been a pillar in Nashville since he first broke into the NHL, but the tough Western Conference was beginning to catch up with him. Defense partner Roman Josi was considered to be the better passer and skater, and some argued Josi was carrying the pair. With the Predators entering a new window of Cup contention, getting younger and more mobile became a priority, especially after trading Seth Jones in January. Subban’s style of play fits the Predators’ plans better. So far, Subban has 17 points in 29 games (a 58-point pace) but has been hurt since the middle of December. The Predators are barely above .500 and two points out of the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference. The trade definitely looks better for the Canadiens as of this writing, but the Predators are sure to figure things out soon. Considering Subban is four years younger than Weber, Nashville’s window should be open longer with Subban over Weber. That’s what GM David Poile wanted when he took the risk to move Weber, but he obviously feels the reward is worth it to add Subban to an already dynamic group of defensemen in Nashville. Let’s call this one a temporary win for Montreal with Nashville looking better long-term.

New Jersey Devils — After the trade went through, Shero told Friedman that he felt the Devils had the defensive depth to make the trade, referencing his time with the Penguins, where he traded Ryan Whitney and Alex Goligoski with with the knowledge that Kris Letang was up and coming. The Devils clearly believe that Damon Severson has the ability to become a top-pairing defenseman and replace Larsson. What New Jersey did not have was an up and coming offensive dynamo remotely close to Hall’s skill level. Shero told Friedman that teams had asked about Larsson’s availability and were told the only way that he would trade Larsson “is if it really makes sense.” Acquiring a franchise offensive player made sense. Hall has performed admirably for the Devils, and is currently on pace to score 54 points in 64 games while battling injuries. Unfortunately for the Devils, they remain in last place in their division and look unlikely to make the playoffs. The situation must be frustratingly familiar for Hall, who spent six seasons in Edmonton scoring at a high level with little defensive support. As mentioned above, the Devils clearly won the trade based on trade value, but as Shero said it’s all about building a team. Shero will need to build more support for franchise players Hall and Cory Schneider to work their way up the standings. If you ignore Edmonton being in contention for a playoff spot and New Jersey being in the lottery watch, New Jersey won the trade, hands down. Take team building into consideration, and the trade looks a little closer. It’s still a clear win for the Devils to acquire a legitimate superstar for less than full trade value.

Tampa Bay Lightning — Had it happened on any other day during the previous year, Stamkos re-signing in Tampa Bay would have dominated the news cycle for at least two or three days. But after the craziness of the half-hour preceding the announcement, it seemed to take something of a backseat to the pair of blockbuster trades. Stamkos took less than his perceived market value to stay in Tampa Bay where his heart is. He’s expressed his desire to retire as a member of the Lightning. Lightning GM Steve Yzerman told Friedman that he really didn’t know what would happen: “I wasn’t really sure what was going to happen. In the last week, we had no control.” But Stamkos ultimately chose to stay in Tampa Bay. With his blood clot and contract cleared up, Stamkos got off to a torrid start, scoring 20 points in 17 games. He was on pace for a 52-goal, 105-point season before a lateral meniscus tear put his season on hold until March at the earliest. There is some risk to having a player signed for eight years with three consecutive season-ending injuries (fractured tibia, blood clot, and meniscus tear). Injuries aside, signing a superstar scorer for $8.5MM per season long-term is a great deal for the Lightning, and leaves Yzerman room to do his best to keep the Lighting’s core together. Should Stamkos be able to stay healthy, then there’s no question that both sides will consider this contract a win.

Early Returns On Summer Blockbusters

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Typically, free agency items dominate hockey headlines in the latter days of June. However, the events of June 29th changed that dynamic in the 2016 offseason. First, the marquee name available in free agency, Steven Stamkos, agreed to remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning, inking an eight-year extension with the team and effectively ruining the offseason plans of several other NHL clubs. Second, a pair of rare, player-for-player blockbuster trades were completed, shocking all who follow and cover the league.

Desperately searching to upgrade the team’s blue line, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli agreed to ship top-line left wing Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Not long after that deal was announced, the Nashville Predators dealt team captain and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber to Montreal for the electric P.K. Subban.

While it’s too early to make any definitive judgments as to which teams may have come out ahead in their respective exchanges, it is possible to analyze the early returns and see how much each club has benefited from the transactions.

Montreal –  While there is no question P.K. Subban is a supremely skilled player, as the 2015-16 season played out it appeared as if head coach Michel Therrien and GM Marc Bergevin had grown weary of the defender’s high-risk, high-reward playing style. In Weber they get a veteran blue liner who boasts the league’s hardest shot and one who has long been a stalwart for Team Canada in numerous international events. Weber has also had a productive start to his Habs career, with eight goals and 18 points through 27 games.

Nashville – The team may have lost the longtime face of their franchise but they did add a dynamic talent who is four years Weber’s junior and has perhaps a more favorable contractual situation. While Subban’s cap hit is more than $1M higher annually through the 2021-22 campaign, his contract expires four years earlier than Weber’s and does not come with the likelihood of a cap recapture penalty. Subban is slowly growing more comfortable in his new home and has produced nearly identical numbers to his counterpart, tallying seven goals and 17 points through 26 contests.

Verdict – With Montreal currently sitting in the top spot in the Eastern Conference it’s hard to argue the trade hasn’t paid off exactly as Bergevin hoped. Weber plays a more conservative style of hockey which Therrien clearly prefers and he is still an impact player at both ends of the ice. On the flip side Subban gives the Nashville market a huge personality and a bankable star. He has quickly endeared himself to the Predators fans off the ice and is still producing on the ice. This deal has worked out for both clubs about as well as could have been hoped.

New Jersey – After ranking dead last in goals scored in 2015-16, the Devils desperately needed an infusion of skill and that’s exactly what they got in Hall. In 19 games this season, Hall is averaging better than a point-per-game for his new team and gives the Devils a legitimate, goal-scoring threat they haven’t had since Zach Parise resided in Jersey.

Edmonton – Larsson doesn’t contribute much in the offensive end of the ice – just six points in 30 contests this season – but has at least provided steady play on the back end for Edmonton. Chiarelli perhaps could have pursued a more dynamic player to address his team’s dire need on the blue line but Larsson came with the cost-certainty that RFA options like Mathew Dumba and Jacob Trouba did not. The Oilers will soon have to consider extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – neither of which will come cheap – and getting Larsson in the midst of a long-term deal with a manageable cap hit carries additional value.

Verdict – Hall is clearly the better and more valuable player, both today and into the future. But to Chiarelli’s credit, he knew his team needed to improve on the back end and was willing to lose the trade to make his team better. It’s probable the Oilers GM simply was not content maintaining the status quo and made the best deal available to upgrade the blue line. With the Oilers at the top of the Pacific Division standings, Chiarelli is likely pleased with how this deal has worked out for Edmonton.

Friedman’s Latest: Cap, Islanders, Purcell, Cowen

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In the latest edition of his wonderful 30 Thoughts column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman touched on a wide variety of topics of interest to hockey fans, including where the salary cap is expected to land for the 2017-18 season.

  • At this month’s GM meetings, managers are expecting to receive a preliminary number for the salary cap. Friedman reported that a couple GMs are “hoping for $75MM.”
    That would be an increase of $2MM over the current $73MM ceiling. Last summer, the cap went up by just $1.6MM, which was a smaller increase than what most teams were expecting, and also one of the smaller increases in cap history. The cap has risen by more than $3MM six times since it was implemented in 2005-06.
  • After discussing the New York Islanders management situation, Friedman joked that “one day I’m going to ply GM Garth Snow with enough truth serum to find out how hard he planned to go after Steven Stamkos, what he was going to offer, and how that affected his July 1, 2016 decisions.”
    The off-season did not go as planned for the Islanders, who lost Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen to free agency and replaced them with Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera. Ladd has just three goals and six points this season, and is signed for seven years. He’s a prominent member of Pro Hockey Rumors’ 2016 UFA All-Bust Team.
  • As we speculated when he was placed on waivers, the Los Angeles Kings had tried to trade Teddy Purcell before placing him on waivers. However, they were not willing to take a contract back, as we suggested most teams would offer. Friedman suggested Ottawa could have interest, as Purcell previously played for Senators head coach Guy Boucher when the pair were in Tampa Bay, but it doesn’t work at the moment for budget reasons. Friedman says he “wouldn’t be surprised if someone takes a chance” later in the season
  • Finally, with Jared Cowen’s arbitration result due to come later today, Friedman pointed out that a Cowen win would “wreak havoc” on next year’s cap for the Maple Leafs because of rookie bonus overages. Currently Cowen’s buyout is a $650K cap credit for Toronto, but that could change to a $3.1MM cap hit depending on whether or not the arbitrator deems Cowen was healthy enough to buy-out in the summer (numbers via Cap Friendly).

Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.

Each team has the right to protect either:

A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender

or

B) Eight skaters, one goaltender

These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.

The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.

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Lightning Place Steven Stamkos On LTIR, Demote Erik Condra

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have placed Steven Stamkos on long-term injury reserve, reports CapFriendly (Twitter link).  To maximize their potential space, the team recalled prospect defenseman Ben Thomas from Syracuse over the weekend for one day and then sent him back down.  By bringing Thomas up before placing Stamkos on LTIR, the Lightning were within $40K of the cap at the time of his placement which increased the amount of LTIR room to work with.  As a result, Tampa Bay has a little over $8.45MM in cap space to work with while Stamkos is out of the lineup.

If Stamkos progresses well in his rehab from surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee and is projected to return late in the year, it’s unlikely that GM Steve Yzerman would make a bigger move to replace Stamkos as they wouldn’t be able to activate him until they’re back in cap compliance which would be difficult if they added a high salaried player to take his spot.

However, if they feel it’s likely that he’ll be out for the remainder of the season – a realistic possibility considering the four-to-six month projected recovery time – then they could add a bigger salary or two between now and the trade deadline.  There is no salary cap in the playoffs so even if the Lightning’s postseason roster was over the cap ceiling, it wouldn’t constitute a cap violation.  Chicago executed that to perfection a couple of years ago with Patrick Kane’s LTIR placement allowing them to add Antoine Vermette late in the season.

It will still be a while before Tampa Bay can realistically expect a revised timeline for a return date for their captain so in the meantime, it’s likely that they will look to fill his spot from within.  One player who it looked like was going to get a chance was right winger Erik Condra but that doesn’t appear to be the case now as the team announced that they have sent him back to Syracuse of the AHL before he appeared in a single game for the Lightning.

[Related: Lightning Depth Chart]

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