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Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Central Division, here is a look at the St. Louis Blues.

Alex Pietrangelo? Vladimir Tarasenko? Colton Parayko? Sorry, but they aren’t going anywhere. The St. Louis Blues have quietly climbed within three points of a playoff spot and the early-season panic is over. Granted, the team is still in the middle of a cluster of teams fighting for just a few postseason berths, but the Blues have games in hand on the whole bunch and have been playing some of their best hockey lately. St. Louis is now a legitimate threat to slip into the playoffs and, once there, could do some damage. In fact, the potential on paper of this team is yet another reason why a fire sale is unlikely. There is no excuse for their first half failures, but many, including their own GM Doug Armstrong, have expressed optimism about what this core can do next season. They may have considered tearing it all down at one point, but that’s no longer a realistic possibility.

With that said, the Blues have fallen short of expectations all year long and no one would be surprised if they do in fact miss the playoffs this year. As such, they need to hedge their bets and continue to take offers as a seller. The team has a handful of impending unrestricted free agents they can trade, as well as others that they may entertain moving. The bulk of the St. Louis lineup isn’t going anywhere and will continue their playoff push, but Armstrong and company are likely to move out some extraneous pieces and play both sides of the market as the trade deadline approaches.

Record

22-22-5, sixth in the Central Division

Deadline Status

Moderate Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$7.2MM of full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 46/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th
2020: STL 1st*, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 7th
* – Blues owe their 2019 first-round pick to the Buffalo Sabres as part of the Ryan O’Reilly trade, but have option to keep that pick if it is top-ten and send 2020 first-round pick instead

Trade Chips

Brayden Schenn is a name that just won’t go away. Even as the Blues’ play has improved of late, Schenn’s name continues to bounce around the rumor mill. The 27-year-old center broke out for 70 points last season, but is back to his regular 50-point pace, if that, this year and has been an underwhelming presence this season for an underachieving team. Logic would dictate that if the Blues want to keep their core intact for another try next season, they’ll refrain from moving Schenn. However, if the market interest forces his hand, Armstrong will move the talented forward, who has one year remaining on his contract, for the right price.

The same goes for winger Jaden Schwartz. Once the epitome of consistency and clutch in the Blues’ lineup, Schwartz, 27, has been streaky and largely ineffective on offense this season. His 21 points thus far is one of the biggest disappointments of St. Louis’ season. Schwartz has quietly continued to be a solid two-way force for the Blues though, even if it doesn’t show up on the score sheet. Schwartz has shown immense talent previously and his trade value is at an all-time low. Maybe he does just need a change of scenery, but Armstrong is unlikely to sell low on the two-way forward this season.

Not every trade decision will be as difficult as Schenn and Schwartz. For example, veteran forward Patrick Maroon has been an utter failure this year for St. Louis and is all but gone before the deadline. Earlier this month, it was rumored that Maroon was likely to be dealt when his full no-trade clause expired at the end of January. In the nine games since the report, Maroon has one lone goal. Hometown product or not, the Blues are likely to move Maroon – who has proven before to be a deadline commodity – for the best offer. Veteran grinders Jordan Nolan and, to a lesser extent, Chris Thorburn could also have value on the market and their absences would mean little to the Blues.

Defensemen Jay Bouwmeester and Carl Gunnarsson have not struggled like Maroon, but are also likely goners as impending UFA’s. Bouwmeester, 35, is a respected veteran around the league but has undoubtedly slowed down over the past couple of seasons. He’s currently fourth among St. Louis defenders in time on ice and has the worst plus/minus of the group. Bouwmeester isn’t going to be extended by the Blues, but he’s also still a serviceable and experienced blue liner who could help a true contender. He’s worth more elsewhere than he is for this fringe St. Louis team. The same goes for depth defender Gunnarsson, who has actually been a quite effective possession defenseman in limited opportunity this year, but has a higher value as an added option to a contender than to a team that may not make the playoffs. Jakub Jerabek and Chris Butler are also impending UFA defensemen who may have some slight value on the market. Don’t be surprised if 25-year-old Jordan Schmaltz has his name thrown around too; the Blues have made no effort to get him NHL minutes and he could use a new opportunity.

One of the major issues of this St. Louis team is underachieving forwards and it’s not just the veterans. Sure, the Blues might like to move Alex Steen or Tyler Bozak, but no-trade clauses alone will limit that possibility. The team would be far more likely to find takers for some of their disappointing young forwards, of which there are many. Robby Fabbri, Zach Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Nikita Soshnikov, and Sammy Blais are all getting too old to be called prospects, but have yet to prove themselves as difference-makers in the NHL. Each one is an impending restricted free agent this summer and the Blues likely don’t plan to bring the whole group back. St. Louis could benefit from swapping out a young forward or two of their own for other teams’ disappointing forwards in hopes that a new system can turn their game around.

Five Players To Watch For: F Brayden Schenn, F Patrick Maroon, D Jay Bouwmeester, D Carl Gunnarsson, F Sammy Blais

Team Needs

1) Scoring Depth: Obviously, goaltending is the biggest long-term concern of the Blues, but that isn’t going to be addressed at the deadline this year. Next in line then is scoring. As previously mentioned multiple times, one of the fatal flaws of the Blues this season has been a lack of scoring and disappointing efforts from too many regular forwards. St. Louis is 22nd in goals for this season and, even if the veteran core returns to form this season, the fringe pieces lack some upside in the production department. As the team moves out forwards from the roster, old or young, the Blues could benefit from taking a waiver on other teams’ frustrated young forwards to test this season for whether there is a there is a fit moving forward. The Washington Capitals’ Andre Burakovsky, the Vancouver Canucks’ Nikolay Goldobin, or the Montreal Canadiens’ Charles Hudon could all be intriguing options. Finding another name to add to the blossoming next wave of Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Klim Kostin, and Dominik Bokk should be a priority.

2) Top Prospect Defenseman: In the course of making possible trades of Schenn or Bouwmeester or a young forward, Armstrong would be smart to target a top young defender in the return. The Blues have some nice 25-and-under pieces on the NHL blue line right now, but the AHL unit lacks much upside and the organization does not really have a blue chip defenseman in the pipeline other than collegiate rearguard Scott Perunovich, who will already be 21 next season when he begins his junior year at the University of Minnesota-Duluth. St. Louis has many exciting, talented forwards waiting to take over a role in the NHL; the team desperately needs to add a defenseman into that group. If they can’t find one via trade, they should focus on the draft and adding picks to make up for their first- and fourth-rounders this year.

Eight-Year Extension Unlikely For Auston Matthews

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Every year as the trade deadline approaches, teams have more than just swaps on their mind. In order to know exactly what you can go after to push yourself to the playoffs, you need to know how much available cap space you have going forward and what core pieces are locked up long-term. Even teams out of the playoff race have to push to get deals done, or else might end up having to trade an expiring asset. Long-term extensions often happen in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and last season was no different. Consider these deals that were all signed in February 2018:

Lars Eller, Washington Capitals – Five years, $17.5MM

Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames – Six years, $32.1MM

Erik Gudbranson, Vancouver Canucks – Three years, $12MM

Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Six years, $30MM

Patric Hornqvist, Pittsburgh Penguins – Five years, $26.5MM

It comes as no surprise then that nearly as many headlines are currently dominated by extension talk as by trade talk. In Ottawa, the Senators are desperately trying to get some indication of whether they can keep Matt Duchene and Mark Stone around long-term, or else will be forced to trade both of them. The Columbus Blue Jackets don’t seem to be getting any such indication from Artemi Panarin, but will likely hold on to him anyway given their intention to compete for the Stanley Cup. The San Jose Sharks are in a similar boat with Erik Karlsson, but also can’t even sign him to an eight-year extension until after the deadline passes.

Perhaps the biggest headline generator recently (as they often are) were the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose GM Kyle Dubas told media that the team had made progress on an Auston Matthews extension. While insiders quickly noted that progress in this case did not mean a deal was imminent, there is some reason to believe that Matthews could be one of these February signings.

First of all, the Maple Leafs are another team within striking distance of the Stanley Cup or at least a high playoff seed. Dubas knows that they could compete this season, and getting Matthews under contract gives him more information to make any other trade deadline decisions. Second it would make the summer a lot less stressful, given that the front office also has to deal with new contracts for Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, while also filling the hole left by pending UFA Jake Gardiner. Each of those contracts will take some work, and the Maple Leafs certainly don’t want them to extend into the season again like William Nylander’s negotiation did.

It might be easy to say hand over a blank check to Matthews and let him join the league’s elite with an eight-year extension that pays him more than $10MM per season. Not so fast, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, who writes that both the team and Matthews’ agent Judd Moldaver “see an eight-year deal as extremely unlikely.” The reasoning would be that the Maple Leafs can’t afford to buy out that many UFA seasons given how tight their cap will be going forward. Instead, suggests Friedman, the deal will be for five or six years, buying out just one or two free agent seasons in order to keep the cap hit relatively low.

In reality it actually might be the better move for Matthews too. Though an eight-year deal would certainly put him into the upper echelon of NHL earners immediately, it likely wouldn’t stay that way throughout the entire deal. With the salary cap set to increase again next season and CBA talks potentially changing the salary cap rules at some point down the line, Matthews could be overtaken by less talented peers in the years to come. If he truly believes in his talent—and nothing in his career path to this point suggests he does not—signing his next massive contract after five more seasons makes total sense. Remember that the Maple Leafs center won’t turn 22 until September, meaning he would exit a five or six year deal still in his prime.

While this kind of a deal might make sense for both the Maple Leafs and Matthews, it will be interesting to see whether other teams follow the same path. The Tampa Bay Lightning for instance have a brilliant young center of their own scheduled to hit restricted free agency in Brayden Point, and face similar cap crunch issues moving forward. If Point would be interested in a five-year deal of his own there could be benefits for both sides, though like Matthews it would put him at risk of leaving as a free agent a few years earlier.

If the Maple Leafs are to go after any player with term left on his contract, they need to get some certainty over what kind of cap hit Matthews will bring moving forward. That means Dubas might not be watching his phone waiting for another GM’s number to pop up over the next few weeks, but rather that of Moldaver.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Central Division, here is a look at the Minnesota Wild.

First-year GM Paul Fenton said it himself today that the Wild “can’t trade draft picks” this year due to their lack of depth in the pipeline. Yet, did they not just trade a fifth-round pick for defenseman Brad Hunt a few days ago? Fenton’s message is clear that the team is worried about their lack of youth on the NHL roster and few elite prospects in the system. He surely does not intend for Minnesota to be a “buyer” in the traditional sense this year. However, there is no reason to think that all of the Wild’s draft picks and prospects are off the table.

Minnesota has quietly won eight of their past twelve games and, while the myriad other teams competing for the final spot in the Central Division or a wild card berth continue to struggle to make up ground, the Wild have pulled away with a three-point lead over the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche. There are still many games left, but Minnesota is starting to differentiate themselves as a legitimate playoff team. With that status comes a need to strengthen the roster and address problem areas – especially the 24th-ranked offense – to make the most of a postseason opportunity. Perhaps Fenton and company can succeed in those goals with pure hockey trades, but odds are the team will warm up to moving more late picks or middling prospects if that’s what it takes.

Record

26-21-3, third in the Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$11.87MM of full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN or WAS 5th*, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2020: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
* – Wild owe the Vegas Golden Knights the better of their two 2019 fifth-round picks in return for Brad Hunt

Trade Chips

If you believe what Fenton says, then the Wild will be unwilling to move their best trade capital this deadline season. While he namely is talking about high draft picks, that likely also includes top prospects like forwards Kirill Kaprizov, Luke Kunin, and Ivan Lodnia, defenseman Filip Johansson, and goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen. The recent emergence of Jordan Greenway at the NHL level also makes him untouchable. If a team is looking to land a top young player for their rental at the deadline, they likely won’t find one from Minnesota.

However, Fenton’s willingness to make hockey trades – one-for-one player swaps – opens up many other possibilities. 26-year-old forward Charlie Coyle has long been a fixture on the trade block and this could be the year that the Wild finally move the two-way contributor and his team-friendly contract. The other roster forward that could garner considerable attention is 22-year-old Joel Eriksson Ek, who just can’t seem to find his way at the NHL level and could use a change of scenery. With defenseman Mathew Dumba potentially sidelined for the season, Minnesota would be hard-pressed to remain a factor in the Western Conference playoff race while also trading away any of their blue line regulars. However, AHLers Louie Belpedio and Carson Soucy could be intriguing options for rebuilding teams.

Outside of the pro ranks, some other prospects who could be on the move include Providence College forward Brandon Duhaime or London Knights defenseman Jacob Golden, but the Wild will likely be hesitant to move younger prospects if they don’t have to.

With every win, the Wild become less and less likely to entertain any offers for their own impending free agents. In what is already a buyer’s market, Minnesota is unlikely to get great value for their UFA’s and would be better served to hold on to them, whether that’s star veteran Eric Staal or valued depth like forward Eric Fehr, defenseman Nate Prosser, and goaltender Alex Stalock. One piece that could move is current third-string goaltender Andrew Hammond, if a contending team is willing to pay for depth in net.

Five Players To Watch For: F Charlie Coyle, F Joel Eriksson Ek, D Carson Soucy, F Mason Shaw, G Andrew Hammond

Team Needs

1) Scoring Winger: To Fenton’s credit, he has addressed many of Minnesota’s needs already, adding Hunt to improve defensive depth, trading for Victor Rask to add another capable center, and even grabbing Pontus Aberg to help improve scoring. However, the slumping Rask and unproven Aberg alone are not going to turn around one the league’s least impressive offenses, especially with Nino Niederreiter now gone. Outside of Zach Parise and Mikael Granlund, no Wild forward has wowed offensively this season. The team needs to add another goal-scoring forward, preferably a winger, and they need to do it this year if they want to compete with other contenders in the postseason. If Fenton wants to make long-term hockey trades, he could look at adding someone like the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli or the New York Rangers’ Chris Kreider in a deal for a player like Eriksson Ek. If he comes around to the idea of an affordable rental, the Rangers’ Mats Zuccarello may be a better option, while the Ottawa Senators’ Ryan Dzingel or the Detroit Red Wings’ Gustav Nyquist could also be fits. It will all depend on the asking price. If they can add two scoring wingers, even better.

2) Draft Picks: One thing is certain – Fenton’s assessment of the team’s pipeline is not wrong. The Wild lack almost any prospects who realistically project to be top NHL players and desperately need to reload the system with some talent. When it comes to moving pieces around, especially if they do opt to trade away impending free agents, Minnesota would be wise to continue to protect their own high draft picks while trying to add more valuable picks along the way.

Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Central Division, here is a look at the Nashville Predators.

The core of the Nashville Predators remains unchanged since the team was a Stanley Cup finalist two years ago and are all signed long-term, likely keeping the Predators a contender for years to come. However, the team has shown a willingness to make moves at the deadline each year to maximize their odds of taking home the title during this stretch. Last season, GM David Poile made a whopping seven trades total, six of which came in the month of February, and notably added Kyle Turris and Ryan Hartman to the roster. While it’s doubtful that the team makes a similar number or caliber of deal this time around, expect the Predators to again be busy.

Record

29-18-4, second in the Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$29.88MM in a full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 44/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, FLA 3rd, COL 4th, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th
2020: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

More and more often, and specifically this season, it has become easier to identify the likely pieces that a trade deadline buyer is willing to give up to land a veteran player. Trade boards now include just as many young roster players and prospects from contenders as they do the typical rentals from sellers.

This is not the case for the Predators. There are no clear trade chips that Poile and company are actively using to bait teams into making a deal. However, there are plenty of players one could speculate that they will dangle.

Prospect defenseman Dante Fabbro definitely heads up that list. Fabbro, 20, is the junior captain of the Boston University Terriers and is developing into quite the two-way defenseman. Fabbro is on pace for the best offensive season of his collegiate career and looks likely to turn pro this off-season. However, three of the Predators’ famous top-four are all signed long-term, with Roman Josi likely to be extended, and the team has seven defensemen overall under contract for next season already. Fabbro does not have much opportunity to play in the NHL next season in Nashville, but many other teams would be happy to give the recent first-rounder guaranteed minutes as a rookie. Fabbro would undoubtedly be a valued piece on the market. To a lesser extent, so could BU teammate David Farrance and leading AHL defender Frederic Allard, who also lack a clear route to play time in Nashville and thus become expendable.

The Predators also have some intriguing young forwards, including several with NHL experience. The Predators are looking to add a forward or two at the deadline, making some current contributors superfluous. 25-year-olds Miikka Salomaki and Frederick Gaudreau have failed to make the most of ample opportunity this season and are part of why the need up front exists. The pair have combined for just ten points despite playing in the majority of Nashville’s games, but have shown great ability before. Both have another year left at a minimal cap hit, which would make them an even more attractive get for interested teams. Anthony Richard, the Milwaukee Admirals leading scorer, is another young forward who could garner some attention, as could University of Minnesota standout Rem Pitlick.

Five Players To Watch For: D Dante Fabbro, F Miikka Salomaki, D Frederic Allard, F Anthony Richard, F Rem Pitlick

Team Needs

1) Top-six Winger: Injuries to top-six forwards Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, and Kyle Turris this season have made it difficult to truly evaluate the Nashville offense. The team is still more than capable of scoring, currently 12th in goals per game, but there’s room for improvement. That includes on paper, as well.  Even once everyone is healthy, there still seems to be a gap in talent between Forsberg, Arvidsson, Turris, Ryan Johansen, and the rest of the roster. One of Kevin Fiala, Craig Smith, or the disappointing Ryan Hartman can surely continue to fill a second-line role, but the Predators could use an upgrade to round out the group. More specifically, the team is lacking size and grit up front and could use a power forward if possible. The Philadelphia Flyers’ Wayne Simmonds seems like a perfect fit and has already been linked to the team, while the Carolina Hurricanes’ Micheal Ferland and, if made available, the New York Rangers’ Chris Kreider would also be ideal. Outside of bigger wingers, the New York Rangers’ Mats Zuccarello and the Detroit Red Wings’ Gustav Nyquist also make sense.

2) Depth Winger: Compared to their stellar defense and goaltending and even compared to their depth down the middle – Johansen, Turris, Colton Sissons, and Nick Bonino – winger is definitely the position of weakness for Nashville. Even if they do acquire a top target to fill a scoring line role, don’t be surprised to see Poile add another piece as well. The veteran GM showed a willingness to use the deadline to land a young forward last season in Hartman and could do the same this year. The last time the Predators bought low on a Washington Capitals forward, it worked out pretty well, making Andre Burakovsky an interesting target. The Vancouver Canucks’ Nikolay Goldobin is another intriguing possibility.

Toronto Maple Leafs Making Progress On Auston Matthews Extension

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A topic of speculation for years around the hockey world has been offer sheets and how teams could use them as predatory strikes against rivals, driving up cap hits or attempting to steal their best players. One team in particular that is targeted with hypothetical situations is the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have heard that just about every team in the league is preparing to sign both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to offer sheets this summer. The Maple Leafs are in a tricky financial situation after signing William Nylander and John Tavares to expensive long-term deals, meaning it would be tough for them to match the lucrative offers some other franchises could wave in front of their other young stars.

There are so many barriers before anything like that actually happens though, and one of them is simply the Maple Leafs signing Matthews or Marner to a long-term extension before they even reach restricted free agency in the first place. Though that won’t take place with Marner, whose representatives have made it clear they will wait until after the season to start negotiating, it very well may happen with Matthews. Today, when speaking with reporters in Toronto including Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, GM Kyle Dubas explained that the team has “made progress” on an extension for their explosive sniper. Dubas would like the deal done before the trade deadline if possible.

Matthews, 21, is having another fantastic season for the Maple Leafs with 20 goals and 42 points in 34 games. Though he missed a fair chunk of time earlier in the year—and is in something of a slump at the moment—he’s still poised to have quite the resume when discussing any long-term extension.

When Connor McDavid signed his record-setting eight-year $100MM extension in 2017, he had just 148 points in 127 games. McDavid had missed nearly half of his rookie season with injury, but was fresh off an 100-point year and a pile of individual awards. Jack Eichel meanwhile had just 113 points in 142 games when he signed his eight-year $80MM extension with the Buffalo Sabres, who were betting on his potential more than his production in the early part of his career. He too missed games as a sophomore, and didn’t have quite the lofty statistics that McDavid had recorded.

Matthews then may fall somewhere in the middle given what he’s done so far. The Toronto center has 174 points in 178 games including a 40-goal campaign and Calder Trophy as a rookie in 2016-17. He ranks seventh in goals since the start of that season with 94, despite averaging fewer than 18 minutes a night over that span.

The salary cap has gone up since McDavid and Eichel signed their contracts though, meaning the same percentage would be worth more if Matthews were to sign today. For instance, if he matched the same 13.33% that the Sabres gave to Eichel, Matthews’ deal would come in around $10.6MM per season going with this year’s $79.5MM cap. That would seem to be his floor, though the Maple Leafs will surely try to get him in at the lowest possible number.

Toronto already has an $11MM player in Tavares, and very well could have two more eight-digit earners in Matthews and Marner next season depending on how negotiations go. That kind of commitment to a handful of forwards will put a strain on the rest of their roster, especially given that young players like Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson are also set to hit restricted free agency. Getting Matthews under contract as soon as possible will give the front office more time to figure out how everything is going to work, and decide whether or not they can actually acquire a player with any kind of term at the upcoming trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Anaheim Ducks And The Issue Of “Tagging”

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Anaheim Ducks GM Bob Murray has been a busy man this season, orchestrating four of the past seven trades in the NHL and nine deals overall since the regular season began. Yet, as his team continues to dwell on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff picture, Murray is left to ponder other moves to either improve his roster or sell off what few valuable rental pieces he has. Outside of recent additions Michael Del Zotto and Derek Grant, who are unlikely to be flipped, the Ducks have only three other notable impending unrestricted free agents: forwards Jakob Silfverberg and Brian Gibbons and currently injured goaltender Ryan Miller. Many have speculated that Silfverberg could be the next player shipped out of town, but Murray was quick to state recently that he will continue to work toward an extension with the top-six winger instead.

However, when it comes to either re-signing Silfverberg or adding another piece before the trade deadline, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman cautions that it may be easier said than done due to an obscure salary cap rule. “Tagging” is a rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement that limits teams from surpassing the current season’s salary cap in terms of future salaries. The wording of the CBA is as follows:

Until such time as the Club has or makes Payroll Room in the current year in excess of such Tagged Payroll Room, the Club may not engage in any Player transactions requiring Payroll Room, including but not limited to, acquiring an SPC or “extending” or entering into a new SPC.

In layman’s terms, this simply means that teams are not permitted to acquire players with non-expiring contracts or agree to new contracts with current players that would put a future season’s payroll above the existing salary cap. Although the current salary cap ceiling of $79.5MM is almost guaranteed to increase next season, perhaps even substantially, and even though cap hits toll as the season progresses, allowing teams to acquire players they otherwise could not have afforded earlier in the year, they still may not surpass the current cap limit when it comes to the future.

For the Ducks, this rule is especially topical. Anaheim has 16 non-waiver exempt players under contract next season at a total of $70.4MM, the most committed salary of any team in the league. Projecting their 23-man roster payroll for next season easily exceeds $74MM. Even after cutting future salary in the Andrew Cogliano–Drew Shore swap, the Ducks have little room to maneuver while avoiding a “tagging” problem. Without moving out another long-term player, Anaheim would likely struggle to extend Silfverberg in the current league year to a salary exceeding $5-6MM. Given that Silfverberg is currently underpaid at just a $3.75MM AAV, the proven two-way forward is very likely to land in that range. Similarly, the Ducks would be hard-pressed to add a player with term remaining at a cap hit in or above that range. Even if they did find a way to make one of those moves or the other, it would severely limit their roster flexibility the rest of the way this season.

The question thus becomes, if extending Silfverberg in the current season is not a viable option, should the team consider moving him? Even if they have an oral agreement with Silfverberg to sign a new contract this off-season, they cannot truly know that he is committed to staying in Anaheim until pen meets paper. The Ducks could easily fall out of the playoff race following the trade deadline and Silfverberg could decide he would rather test the market. Meanwhile, the team should be able to recoup some nice trade capital if they did decide to trade Silfverberg and could always re-sign him this summer. Even though Murray seems intent on keeping Silfverberg around, the looming shadow of the “tagging” rule makes it a much tougher situation.

Senators Make Long-Term Offer To Matt Duchene

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The word out of Ottawa in recent years was that owner Eugene Melnyk was hesitant to pay the market price for top talent and did not want his team approaching the salary cap ceiling. Unfortunately, if the Senators have any chance of improving next season after back-to-back bottom-dwelling campaigns, they need to re-sign Mark Stone and Matt Duchene and doing so will certainly not be cheap. While serious extension talks with the former began weeks ago, there is now a promising update on the latter as well. Several sources report that Senators GM Pierre Dorion recently met with Duchene’s agent, Pat Brisson, and began negotiations on an eight-year contract extension.

The first report on this topic came from Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos late last night, who stated that the initial offer is eight years and $64MM for an AAV of $8MM. While Kypreos feels this is a fair valuation for the the 28-year-old forward, it presents only a $2MM boost from Duchene’s current $6MM cap hit from a contract he signed six years ago with a substantially smaller salary cap limit in place. Duchene is also scoring at a career-high clip of 1.18 points per game and, if he stays healthy, is on pace for 85 points in 73 games this season, also a career best. That could be enough to make Duchene the top-scoring forward on the free agent market or at least among the top three with Stone and Artemi Panarin. Regardless, he will be the most highly sought-after center this summer if he does reach free agency and that knowledge will add a premium to extension talks. Thus, it comes as little surprise that TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the “ballpark” numbers on an eight-year deal for Duchene are actually $65-75MM total, for an AAV above $8MM and ranging to nearly $9.4MM.

Regardless of the exact numbers, Senators fans will be happy to hear that the team is at least laying the ground work for an extension with Duchene, as well as Stone. With that said, with the NHL Trade Deadline coming up next month, Ottawa will need to work quickly to get the pair re-signed or otherwise need to begin shopping them for the best offer. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman expects that there will be deadlines attached to any extension offers so as to allow the team the time needed to have trade talks if contract talks aren’t going as well. The next few weeks will decide which option comes out on top, but for the sake of the Senators franchise, one would hope that at least one of Duchene or Stone re-up with the club. It is a promising step to hear that they are actually discussing reasonable figures in these initial extension talks and maybe Ottawa fans will have the stroke of good luck they so desperately need with new deals for both players.

Trade Rumors: Hurricanes, Oilers, Nylander

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The Carolina Hurricanes struck arguably the biggest trade of the regular season so far when they acquired Nino Niederreiter from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Victor Rask earlier today. However, GM Don Waddell is likely far from done. Not long after the deal was announced this afternoon, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun stated that the Hurricanes are still looking to add to their roster. LeBrun speculates that the team will add another top-six forward and will try to tap into their surplus of defensemen and defensive prospects to do so. The Hurricanes have the NHL’s longest playoff drought at nine seasons and would very much like to get back to the postseason this year and are well within striking distance of that goal past the midpoint of the season. While the team has succeeded in many areas this season, they continue to have struggles with scoring and, as LeBrun points out, could desperately use another talented forward. Yet, at the same time, the Hurricanes are also reportedly open to moving one of their most successful scoring forwards this season, Micheal Ferland. Ferland is on pace for a career season in his first year in Carolina, but the two sides had been unable to come to terms on an extension. Following the addition of a very similar player in Niederreiter, Ferland’s time in Carolina could soon be coming to an end. Between listening to offers on one highly-sought after rental forward and actively in pursuit of another top name on the market, the Hurricanes promise to remain in the rumor mill through the trade deadline next month and should have some more fireworks in store.

  • Another team desperate to make the playoffs this season are the Edmonton Oilers. While the Oilers are reportedly willing to move a number of assets for long-term forward help, the hype surrounding a possible Jesse Puljujarvi trade appears to be cooling off and GM Peter Chiarelli may opt for adding an affordable rental rather than making another high-risk trade. In his latest “31 Thoughts” column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman names the Oilers as a suitor for the New York Rangers’ Mats Zuccarello. The veteran winger has been hot lately and could certainly help with Edmonton’s scoring woes down the stretch. As Friedman points out, and the Oilers surely know as well, Zuccarello also should not be too expensive to acquire. The Rangers received a second-round pick and middling prospect from the New Jersey Devils at the trade deadline last season for Michael Grabner, who was in the midst of a season not dissimilar from Zuccarello’s this year and was also an impending free agent. Chiarelli and company would likely be happy to give up a package such as that to add much-needed help up front.
  • William Nylander is finally under contract and playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but it’s been a slow start for the young forward in his return to action and an equally disappointing result for his team since his return. Making too much of that could be a mistake, but facing an impending salary cap crunch and mounting Stanley Cup expectations, GM Kyle Dubas and the Leafs brass have little room for error. Count former Toronto GM Brian Burke among those who would jettison Nylander as soon as possible if they were in Dubas’ shoes. Burke said on Sportsnet today that the front-loaded nature of Nylander’s contract should allow the team to move him and he expects that trade to occur this off-season. Burke acknowledges that Nylander is a talented player, but doesn’t agree with his nearly $7MM yearly cap hit and feels he is too similar to other players on the Leafs’ roster and considers him to be a costly “surplus player”. Whether Dubas and company agree with that assessment remains to be seen, but a Nylander trade this summer is certainly not out of the question.

Panarin Does Not Want To Be Traded, Will Discuss Future With Columbus

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Beginning this off-season, the rumblings that star forward Artemi Panarin did not want to resign with the Columbus Blue Jackets created the impression that a blockbuster trade was inevitable prior to the end of this season, when Panarin becomes an unrestricted free agent. That no longer appears to be the case. In the midst of another strong season for both Panarin and his team, the high scoring winger is hoping to stay in Columbus through the end of the season, his agent, Dan Milstein, told TSN’s “Leafs Lunch” on Friday. Panarin is also reportedly opening up to the idea of an extension with the Blue Jackets.

Milstein stated that he and Panarin plan to meet over the All-Star break in late January to discuss the future. Part of that conversation will be about a potential long-term fit with the Blue Jackets. “He likes it in Columbus. They have a very good, young team… Management has been nothing but great to him…. He wants to help the team to win the Stanley Cup”, Milstein said. Panarin is a very competitive player and Milstein made it clear that last season’s early playoff exit bothered the all-world winger and he hopes to lead the team deeper into the postseason this year. There is also the potential for a long-term fit in Columbus, as Milstein applauded the efforts of young center Pierre-Luc Dubois and said that Panarin has enjoyed playing alongside him this season. While Panarin leads the Jackets with 41 points, the sophomore centerman is not far behind with 32. The promise of that pairing moving forward could be a vital factor in Panarin’s decision.

However, other teams and their rosters will certainly be considered. Milstein was honest that he and Panarin will likely begin discussing his potential fits with other teams when they meet next month. Panarin, still just 27, will likely be the most sought-after forward on the free agent market if he opts to leave Columbus and could pick almost any team to play for given his unique skill set. It has previously been reported that Panarin prefers to play in a coastal metropolitan area, with many speculating that the three New York-area teams, all of whom are in comfortable salary cap situations, are possible fits, while Boston, Florida, Carolina, or one of the three California teams would also be logical landing spots. The competitive Panarin also wants a chance to win the Stanley Cup. Even though he will almost certainly sign a seven-year contract at a minimum and a lot can change in that time, teams’ recent success and talent pool moving forward will also weigh heavily on his decision. As Milstein stated, they believe that the Blue Jackets are one of those talented, young teams that will be a contender moving forward.

One thing that will not affect Panarin’s decision is the future of Blue Jackets goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, at least not in a personal sense. Although the two are good friends, Milstein said that “they are in no way going to be going as a package”. Bobrovsky appears to be headed for the free agent market, but his likely departure does not necessarily mean that Panarin will leave Columbus simply because his friend is gone. However, how the Jackets plan to handle the massive hole that Bobrovksy would leave in net will definitely be a part of Panarin’s calculations.

Whatever conclusions that Panarin and Milstein come to when the meet in January, if any, the fact remains that in the short-term Panarin is focused on winning with Columbus and that is likely enough to convince Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen to hold on to his top scorer in hopes of making a title run. “Hopefully he’ll play through the end of the season, will help them get deep into the playoffs and perhaps help them win the Stanley Cup”, Milstein said, “That’s the immediate goal.” This should come as good news for Jackets fans, who can rest easy about their best player, at least until July 1st.

Trade Rumors: Senators, Blackhawks, Avalanche

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With leading scorer Matt Duchene on injured reserve and expected out for “weeks”, what little chances the Ottawa Senators had of making the playoffs this season are likely to slip away. This was always the expected result of the 2018-19 season for Ottawa, but their efforts thus far to stay out of the basement of the NHL have surprised many and inspired some. However, as reality now begins to finally set in, the team must decide what they want to do with Duchene and fellow impending free agents Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. As Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun writes, Duchene – currently tied for ninth in the league in scoring – will likely ask for an eight-year deal in the ballpark of $60-70MM to remain in Ottawa, reflective of the salary he will likely command on the open market. Stone will be in the same neighborhood, with Dzingel significantly lower albeit not cheap by any means, but the Senators cannot even begin negotiations with the pair until the new year, per the rules pertaining to their recent salary arbitration decisions. As such, the team is dealing with three high-quality expiring assets without any guarantee that they will be re-sign or if the team will be willing to meet their salary demands. In a season in which Ottawa could finish with one of the worst records in the league but lacks their first-round pick – given to the Colorado  Avalanche in the deal that landed Duchene – it stands to reason that GM Pierre Dorion will strongly consider recouping as much trade capital as possible if extensions are not in place by the trade deadline. Given the uncertainly surrounding the ownership status of Eugene Melnyk, whose tactics thus far leave much to be desired anyway, Warren believes that Duchene, Stone, and Dzingel, as well as any other free agent in the coming off-season, will think twice about a future in Ottawa. All things considered, it’s beginning to look like the trio stand a better chance to all be traded away in the coming months than any of them do of signing a long-term extension.

  • The Athletic’s Graeme Nichols wonders if yet another Senator is prime trade bait right now as well. With veteran goaltender Craig Anderson playing his best hockey of the season so far, Nichols opines that Ottawa would be best-served to try moving their starter while his stock is high. While the recent home-and-home series with the Montreal Canadiens did not go so well, Anderson did look very good in wins over the New York Rangers and San Jose Sharks prior, recording 63 saves on 65 shots over the two contests. Anderson also made 48 saves against the Dallas Stars last month and notched wins over the Tampa Bay Lighting and Pittsburgh Penguins. Admittedly, even as this best, Anderson is still a 37-year-old replacement-level goaltender at this point in his career and won’t command much of a return. However, the Senators’ season is sinking and they should get what they can while his value is potentially at its peak. The knock on moving Anderson this season has been that Ottawa has no suitable replacement – backups Mike Condon and Mike McKenna have performed very poorly in limited appearances – and thus trading Anderson means giving up on the season. Yet, with Duchene out long-term, any postseason hopes will fade and moving Anderson will begin to make more sense. As Nichols recalls, Anderson himself also alluded to a desire to move on from Ottawa this summer, so making a deal seems to be in the best interest of all parties. There are plenty of teams out there who would be intrigued by adding an established veteran in net this year and Anderson could soon fill that role.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks made it known yesterday that they are looking to move out some of their defensive depth, but NBC Sports’ James O’Brien asks if they are focused on the wrong players. Rather than try to flip the likes of Brandon Manning or Jan Rutta, for which they would receive relatively little, O’Brien believes that the team’s long-term needs would be better served by trading away a mainstay like Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook. This is not so cut-and-dry, as O’Brien admits, but would be worth looking into. Both players carry no-trade clauses that Chicago GM Stan Bowman would first need to ask them to waive. Even if Seabrook was to agree, it seems very unlikely that Bowman would find a taker for the depreciating defenseman and his albatross of a contract. If by some chance he does, it would be a small return similar to Manning or Rutta, but with a far greater salary cap relief. Keith is another matter; while not what he once was, the 35-year-old is still a very capable defenseman who would play in the top four for nearly every team in the NHL, at least for now. The worry is that Keith will continue to age and his ability will fall off, while the Blackhawks continue to pay him more than $5.5MM per year and rely on him for top minutes. Removing that crutch (and cap hit) now, in what appears to be another lost season for the team, would give Chicago a strong return that they could use to begin rebuilding the team. The alternative, which also appears to be the current plan, of waiting for the current roster to turn things around, will only increase the risk of injury or drop-off from Keith while damaging his market value as he ages. A move now would be painful to the fan base in the short term, but the right move looking toward the future.
  • One team who could be a dangerous player at the trade deadline this season are the Colorado Avalanche. Per CapFriendly, the Avs are currently projected to have more than $56MM in cap space available at the deadline, or in other words have no limit to the amount of talent they can bring in if they so choose. Colorado is currently tied for the lead in the Central Division with the Nashville Predators and could even emerge as President’s Trophy threats this season. Armed with the best line in the NHL, including the top two scorers in the league, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, and the best power play as well, the Avalanche are second in goals for per game among all teams. They also play well in their own end, seventh in goals against per game behind the efforts of Semyon Varlamov. Yet, the Avalanche are not without fault and could stand to add a contributor or two both on defense and up front. The team was expected to add top prospect Cale Makar to their blue line by the end of the regular season, but with his college squad, the UMass Minutemen, ranked No. 1 in the nation, Makar could be occupied through the Frozen Four tournament in mid-April. A capable puck-moving defenseman should thus be at the top of the list for Colorado, followed by an injection of offensive ability and two-way accountability among the forward corps, where their secondary scoring and penalty kill could both use work. While the matter of cost in trade capital is another question entirely, the Avalanche will have the cap space to hypothetically address their needs by adding the likes of Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, and Jay Bouwmeester for example. That’s a dangerous premise for other contenders to consider as Colorado continues to excel this season.

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