Patrik Laine

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

September 9, 2017 at 8:42 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $67,661,666 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Patrik Laine (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Kyle Connor (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Nikolaj Ehlers (One year remaining, $894K)
D Josh Morrissey (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Laine: $2.65MM
Ehlers: $850K
Connor: $850K
Morrissey: $500K

Total: $4.85MM

The future looks bright for the Jets, especially with Laine, who is constantly overshadowed by Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews. Laine, who was taken second-overall in last year’s draft, put up phenomenal numbers that make Jets fans believe again in their team. He put up 36 goals in his rookie campaign and added 28 assists for a 64-point season. He should only get better and become the cornerstone of the franchise in the future. He should be joined by Ehlers, who also had a breakout year last year. The 2014 first-round pick had 15 goals in his rookie year, but added to that this past year, putting up 25 goals and 39 assists for 64 points.

The team also has high hopes for Connor to make the team and find himself a full-time role this year. The team’s 2015 first-round pick, put up big numbers a couple years ago at the University of Michigan two years ago, then scored 25 goals with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose and still managed to get 20 games in with the Jets, where he scored two goals and three assists. The team believes he has a good shot to end up on one of the back two lines. Morrissey, the team’s first-round pick back in 2013, found a full-time role with the Jets last year as he put up six goals and 14 assists. He is currently slated to start on the Jets’ third-line defense.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Toby Enstrom ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Bryan Little ($4.7MM, UFA)
D Jacob Trouba ($2.81MM, RFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($2.25MM, RFA)
F Shawn Matthias ($2.13MM, UFA)
G Michael Hutchinson ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Adam Lowry ($1.13MM, RFA)
F Joel Armia ($925K, RFA)
F Marko Dano ($850K, RFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($700K, RFA)
F Matt Hendricks ($700K, UFA)
F Michael Sgarbossa ($650K, RFA)

That’s a long list, but most of the players are restricted free agents and should easily be retained. However, the team will have to make some decisions on some key veterans, including Little, who many feel is an underrated forward. The 29-year-old has been with the franchise from the start of his career when they were the Atlanta Thrashers and has scored 184 goals for the franchise. With the team’s large number of young forwards, might they move on from Little in a year? Injuries have plagued little over the past two years as he’s missed 48 games. His 21 goals last year were solid, but he will need to prove his value this year if he wants another long-term deal. Another potential unrestricted free agent would be Enstrom, who will be 33 next year and the team will have to decide whether to keep the veteran blueliner. His offensive numbers dropped into the teens in the last couple of years. Mattias and Hendricks are expendable fill-ins, but valuable veterans to hold that roster together.

The team will be looking to several of their restricted free agent as key players in the future. The team will be looking at Trouba to have a big season this year. The 23-year-old defenseman had a career-high 33 points a year ago and he did that in only 60 games, so many feel he may take his game up a notch this year if he can avoid injuries. Despite Hellebuyck’s down year as they attempted to hand him the starting goaltender job, the team still looks at him as a potential starter that just wasn’t ready to take their reigns last year. His 2.89 GAA in 56 games didn’t get the job done. With Mason coming in, Hellebuyck will have more time to develop as a backup.

The team will be looking for Lowry to continue to develop as well. Lowry had 15 goals last year and the 24-year-old is expected to center the team’s third line. Armia also has bigger expectations this year after putting up 10 goals a year ago. He could also end up as a wing next to Lowry on that third line. Dano could also pick up a full-time role with the Jets this year. The former 2013 first-rounder played 38 games for Winnipeg last year, putting up four goals and seven assists.

Two Years Remaining

F Blake Wheeler ($5.6MM, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Steve Mason ($4.1MM, UFA)
D Ben Chiarot ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Andrew Copp ($1MM, RFA)

The team’s main focus will be determining which of these veteran players will they want to bring back. Wheeler, who is 31 years of age, will be 33 years old, but he’s been amazingly consistent for Winnipeg over the last four years, scoring no less than 26 goals in that span. His success over the next two years will be the determining factor if they keep him. Granted, Mason hasn’t played a game for the Jets yet, but it’s more than likely that the Jets will move on from the veteran goaltender. He was signed to provide a stop-gap for Hellebuyck or other young goaltenders to move up in the system. As for Myers, again, the team will look to see how he plays. Considered to be one of their top defenders, he went down with a lower body injury after playing in just 11 games and now is expected to man the team’s second defensive line. At 27, he still has time to prove his value to the franchise.

Three Years Remaining

D Dmitry Kulikov ($4.33MM, UFA)

One of the most criticized signings was this summer when the Jets went out and inked Kulikov to a three-year, $13MM deal. Once considered to be a top defensive prospect, Kulikov has failed to have a big season and really collapsed a year ago when he only was able to put up five points in 47 games. Yet, the Jets brought him in with the hope he could help fix the team’s defensive woes. He suffered a back injury in the preseason with Buffalo a year ago and could never get it going, missing chunks of games due to that injury all year. Now healthy, the Jets hope this gamble will pay off.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Dustin Byfuglien ($7.6MM through 2020-21)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM through 2023-24)
F Mathieu Perreault ($4.125MM through 2020-21)

The team has only three large, long-term contracts on the books and the team is thrilled they have Scheifele locked up for another seven years. Signed to an eight-year extension in July of 2016, Scheifele is a centerpiece for the Jets. The 24-year-old had a breakout season that year, scoring 29 goals in the 2015-16 season. He topped that number with 32 goals this past year and is poised for greater things and at his age, they can count on him for a long time.

Byfuglien is locked up for another four years. The bruising 6-foot-5 defender has put up big numbers over his career, including a 13 goal, 39 assists season a year ago. He will be 36 when his contract ends, but with him still performing at his prime, this also looks like it was a good signing. Perreault, on the other hand, has not worked out as well. Signed from Anaheim after an 18-goal season in 2014, he agreed to a three-year deal, putting up another 18 goals, but since then, has combined for 22 goals in the past two seasons. Nevertheless, the team locked him up to a new four-year, $16.5MM deal which starts this year despite his offensive struggles.

Buyouts

D Mark Stuart ($1.46MM in 2017-18; $583K in 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Scheifele
Worst Value: Perreault

Looking Ahead

The Jets have done a fantastic job putting together a powerful offense. When you combine players like Scheifele, Laine, Wheeler and Little to go with their young players, offense isn’t the problem. The team finished seventh in the NHL in goals scored, averaging 3.0 goals per game. Yet, despite all that scoring, the team still did not reach the playoffs, placing ninth in the Western Conference, seven points short of that final playoff berth. What kept them from advancing? The team’s lack of defense and their goaltending situation held them back. The team was fourth in the NHL in goals allowed as they allowed 3.11 goals per game. The team hopes with the improvement of their offense, the return of Myers from injury and the additions of Kulikov and Mason, the team should be able to push their way into the playoffs this year.

Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL

August 6, 2017 at 10:00 am CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.

However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.

So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.

With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra’s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

April 29, 2017 at 4:35 pm CDT | by natebrown 1 Comment

For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017? From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics:

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

How Did The Top Five Picks In The 2016 Draft Class Fare?

April 22, 2017 at 2:52 pm CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

As the importance of drafting and developing talent takes precedence in a hard cap league, PHR takes a look at how the first five picks from the 2016 NHL Draft fared nearly a calendar year after their selection.

#1: Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs

It almost seems silly writing about him since the Calder Trophy nominated center has been one of the major reasons the Leafs made the playoffs and have given the Capitals fits. Matthews had 69 points in 82 games (40-29) and was everything the Leafs could have hoped he would be. Matthews scored four goals in his debut, and though he had his share of rookie struggles, looked wise beyond his very young age on the ice. Already in the playoffs, Matthews has four points in five games in the playoffs (3-1) and will certainly lead this team to a contender status in the years to come.

#2: Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets

Hardly a consolation prize, Laine is also a Calder Trophy finalist and finished the season with 64 points (36-28) but it was individual performances that garnered attention. Laine registered three hat tricks this season, and in a strictly point-per-game glance, Laine led Matthews and every other rookie this season. Should Winnipeg improve their fortunes, Laine has the game breaking ability to take a talented team deep into the playoffs.

#3: Pierre-Luc Dubois – Columbus Blue Jackets

One of only two players in the top ten to not spend time with the big club, Dubois split time with Cape Breton and Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He didn’t disappoint. Combined, the left winger had 55 points in 48 games (21-34) and has been dynamic in the President’s Cup playoffs, posting 14 points (5-9) in 11 games. The Armada are currently in the semi-finals against Charlottetown (trailing 1-0), and if his current performance is any indication, Dubois could find himself breaking camp with the Blue Jackets next fall.

#4: Jesse Puljujarvi – Edmonton Oilers

Puljujarvi was sent down in early January after making the team out of camp, and his numbers in Bakersfield were respectable: 28 points (12-16) in 39 games and the opportunity to play real minutes instead of playing limited time in Edmonton. Puljujarvi appears to be a rising star, and the extra seasoning should help. His play will continue as he was loaned to Finland’s national team to play in the World Championships.

#5: Olli Juolevi – Vancouver Canucks

Juolevi spent the season with the London Knights, racking up 42 points (10-32) in 58 games. His point total matched his 2015-16 results, with the exception of adding a goal. Juolevi scored the game winning goal in the first round of the OHL playoffs against Windsor that sent the Knights onto the second round, where they ultimately lost to Erie in seven games. During their 14 game run, Juolevi had eight points (3-5). The smooth puck moving defenseman was the first blueliner taken in the draft, and could be a candidate to make the team next year as the Canucks will be retooling their roster with more youth.

NHL Names Calder Trophy Finalists

April 20, 2017 at 6:20 pm CDT | by Mike Furlano Leave a Comment

The NHL released the Calder Trophy finalists for the 2016-17 season, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. The finalists for the NHL’s rookie of the year award are: Winnipeg Jets forward Patrik Laine, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews, and Columbus Blue Jackets defensman Zach Werenski.

Most hockey minds agreed that the Calder race was between Laine and Matthews, with outside runs by Werenski, Toronto Maple Leafs forwards William Nylander and Mitch Marner, and Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Matt Murray. It was a tough year to be a skilled rookie as many impressive performances were overshadowed by Laine’s and Matthews’ excellent season.

Matthews finished the season with 40G and 29A in 82 games, breaking the Maple Leafs record for most goals by a rookie. 32 of those goals came on 5-vs-5, usually centering a line with rookies Zach Hyman and Connor Brown. Matthews averaged .84 points per game

Finnish rookie Laine scored 36G and 28A in 73 games while suffering a concussion midway through the season, and 27 of those goals were even-strength. Laine finished with .88 points per game.

Rounding up the trio is Blue Jackets defenseman Werenski. The American-native scored 11G and 36A in 78 games for the Blue Jackets while averaging just under 21 minutes a night. Werenski manned the second-pairing for Columbus, and quarterbacked the first-line powerplay.

Any of the above three would be well-suited to win the award. Matthews lived up to the expectations of a first overall pick, Laine excited Winnipeg crowds with his laser shot, and Werenski provided maturity beyond his years as a rookie defenseman on the NHL’s most surprising team. Fans will find out who won on June 21, 2017 when the NHL hosts its annual award show in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Golden Knights Expansion Roster Will Be Revealed At NHL Awards

April 18, 2017 at 7:33 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 2 Comments

The NHL announced today that the 2017 NHL Awards will return to Las Vegas for an eighth straight year on Wednesday, June 21 at the T-Mobile Arena and this year will include Las Vegas like it never has before. The NHL plans to incorporate the NHL Expansion Draft into the festivities as it will announce the 30-player roster that the Las Vegas Golden Knights select in a two-hour broadcast.

The show, which will air at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN in America and in Canada on Sportsnet, is expected to put quite a bit of emphasis on the new expansion franchise, highlighting majority owner Bill Foley, general manager George McPhee, new head coach Gerard Gallant and even highlight some of the players the Golden Knights will select.

NHL Awards and nominations for the awards will begin being revealed day-by-day, starting tomorrow with the Selke Award. Here are a list of some of the top awards and potential nominees:

Selke Trophy (nominations will be out tomorrow) — It should be a tight race, but the leading candidates for the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game come down to a handful, including Anaheim’s Ryan Kesler, Washington’s Niklas Backstrom, Boston’s Patrice Bergeron and possibly even Calgary’s Mikael Backlund.

Calder Trophy (nominations to be released Thursday, April 20) — The trophy that goes to the top rookie is almost guaranteed to go to Toronto’s Auston Matthews, but other possible candidates include Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine, Pittsburgh’s goaltender Matt Murray and Columbus’ Zach Werenski.

Norris Trophy (nominations to be released Friday, April 21) — The top defenseman award will come down to a few including the Senators’ top blueliner Erik Karlsson, Lightning’s Victor Hedman and Sharks’ veteran Brent Burns.

Vezina Trophy (nominations to be released Saturday, April 22) — The top netminder award falls to a few including Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky, Washington’s Braden Holtby and Minnesota’s Devan Dubnyk.

Other nominees that will be announced before the June 21 awards include Lady Byng Trophy on Sunday, April 23; Masterton Trophy on April 24; NHL Foundation Player Award on April 25; Jack Adams Award on April 26; Mark Messier Leadership Awards on April 27; Hart Trophy on May 1 and the Ted Lindsay Award on May 2.

Byfuglien Out; Laine Questionable For Jets

March 26, 2017 at 12:54 pm CDT | by Brett Barrett Leave a Comment

The Winnipeg Jets will be without at least one star player when they host the Vancouver Canucks on Sunday night.

Head coach Paul Maurice announced that defenseman Dustin Byfuglien is out with a lower-body injury (LBI) sustained on Thursday, while rookie sniper Patrik Laine is “feeling under the weather” and is a game-time decision.

Byfuglien left Thursday’s loss to the Kings with an LBI and subsequently missed Friday’s loss to the Ducks. He’s been solid for the Jets this season, with 48 points in 74 games while averaging over 27-minutes per night. It’s not known exactly what the injury is or how long he’ll be out of the lineup.

Missing Laine for any extended period of time would be a big loss for the Jets; he has 34 goals and 61 points in 67 games as a rookie. While he’s been quiet lately (2-1-3 in his last nine games), he’s still been one of the best rookies in the NHL. Both Laine and Auston Matthews have 34 goals and 61 points, but Laine has played in seven fewer games. He’ll need a strong finish to earn the Calder Trophy for top rookie season. The team will make the call around 4pm ahead of the 7pm puck drop.

While the Jets have not been mathematically eliminated from the playoff race just yet, it would take an absolute miracle for them to make up the 13-point gap in their seven remaining games. They need to run the table while St. Louis loses out. Barring that unlikely situation, the Jets will miss the playoffs for the third straight season.

Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?

March 4, 2017 at 8:13 pm CDT | by natebrown 8 Comments

FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?

Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.

Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.

It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.

2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.

Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.

A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.

Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.

Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5

March 3, 2017 at 4:42 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.

There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.

5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)

The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.

With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.

It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.

4th Overall Pick – Jesse Puljujarvi (EDM)

One of those missing Finnish forwards was none other than Jesse Puljujarvi, who missed the tournament because he was in the NHL at the time. The Oilers couldn’t believe it when the second-best Finnish draftee fell into their laps at fourth overall, as he was expected to go one spot higher. The big (big) winger is expected to turn into a dominant power forward in the NHL capable of playing an elite two-way game and helping the Oilers round out their top-six.

When Edmonton broke camp with Puljujarvi in tow, it was an interesting decision to keep him and not give him the icetime that Laine and Matthews immediately received. While not as polished as those two, putting him on the ice for 10-12 minutes a game seemed like a waste of his talent and something that couldn’t last. Well it did, until just after the World Juniors completed, amazingly playing Puljujarvi in his final game in Edmonton the same day as the gold medal match. In that final contest, he saw just over three minutes of ice time.

Since then, Puljujarvi has adapted to the AHL quite well scoring 16 points in 20 games and starting to get his confidence back. The winger is the youngest player on the team, only able to play in the professional ranks before the age of 20 because he was drafted out of a European league. Puljujarvi may even return to the NHL this season should the Oilers feel he’s ready, but it looks like next year (or later) will be the time when he makes his mark at this level.

3rd Overall Pick – Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ)

Oh Pierre-Luc Dubois, the player who will always have more pressure on him because the Columbus Blue Jackets shocked everyone by picking him ahead of Puljujarvi. When Jarmo Kekalainen read out Dubois’ name, it was a surprise to much of the draft room—but maybe it shouldn’t have been.

In the inevitable arguments about who is better between Laine and Matthews, many defenders of the Toronto center point to his position as the determining factor. That’s the same argument that Columbus used on Dubois, though Blue Jackets fans might need to scream it to make it count. He’s had a fine season, scoring 49 points in 41 games split between the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles and Blainville-Boisbriand Armada of the QMJHL but it hasn’t quite lived up to the hype he created last year when he scored 99 in 62.

Add in the fact that he didn’t impress during the World Juniors (though his team still won a silver medal) and it’s been a rough year for Blue Jackets fans hoping to have another top center as soon as 2018. Dubois is a dominant physical presence in the Q, a league known for skill and offense more than two-way strength. A down year doesn’t mean he still won’t develop into that Anze Kopitar-like presence, but it doesn’t help fans who expected him to lead the junior league in scoring after coming in third last season.

Deadline Primer: Detroit Red Wings

February 13, 2017 at 9:12 pm CDT | by natebrown 2 Comments

With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re taking a closer look at each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

It’s been quite the purgatory for the Detroit Red Wings. Mike Ilitch, who transformed the Dead Wings into a four time Stanley Cup Champion, passed away on Friday. As if losing the owner who many current and former players considered to be a father figure wasn’t enough, the Wings 25-year playoff streak may end at a quarter century. Struggling to piece wins together, Detroit has a historically bad power play, a team besieged by injury, and a horrible return on investment from several players inked to expensive, long term deals.

For the first time since the early 90’s, the Red Wings are sellers. And yet, while it looks that the playoffs are slipping away, general manager Ken Holland may “stand pat” instead of selling off assets.

Record

22-24-10; 54 points. Last in the Atlantic; Last in the Eastern Conference.

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

Current Cap Space: $0 ($8.3MM with LTIR relief)

Deadline Cap Space: $0 ($8.3MM with LTIR relief)

46/50 contracts, via CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2017: ( 9 Total) DET 1st, DET 2nd, DET 3rd, TOR 3rd, DET 4th, DET 5th, DET 6th, FLA 6th, DET 7th
2018: 7 Total) DET 1st, DET 2nd, DET 3rd, DET 4th, DET 5th, DET 6th, DET 7th.

Trade Chips

There are a number of players to choose from but topping the list is Thomas Vanek, who has been linked to the Chicago Blackhawks among other teams. Should he stay healthy (he’s currently battling an ankle injury), he could fetch some prospects or a draft pick. Mike Green has been another name, though he seems less likely to be moved as the Wings are trying to upgrade on the blue line–and he has been good for them this season. Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar were also mentioned, targets by the Chicago Blackhawks. Petr Mrazek, though it seems odd since he has struggled and was just signed to a deal in the offseason, could also be shopped. Finally, Brendan Smith, in the final year of a contract, could be moved as well.

Team Needs

1) #1 defenseman. Good luck. Almost every team in the NHL seeks that top pair defenseman, the Red Wings truly haven’t had one since Nick Lidstrom retired. Worse, their young defensemen have regressed while the veterans are broken down versions of their once steady selves (Niklas Kronwall comes to mind). The problem in getting the top pairing defenseman they seek is two fold. First, only a young player with team control could garner the top d-man, be it Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin, or Andreas Athanasiou. But those are players the Red Wings aren’t willing to give up. Second, the salary cap situation is a mess being that Holland has handed out expensive, long-term contracts to players like Justin Abdelkader, who hasn’t scored a goal since November. To add and retain a top pair defenseman, a team needs salary cap space. The Wings are in trouble for years to come unless they can shed those contracts. Until the Red Wings fix the blue line, their slide will continue and only get worse.

2) An elite, generational player. In all of the seasons for the Red Wings to fall off, it would be the season where there isn’t a clear cut one and two option. Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine were all clear cut options in the last two drafts. Now? While Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier, and Tim Liljegren are all great options, scouts are having a hard time agreeing on a clear cut favorite. Holland could trade draft picks and players to go after former top picks, like Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon or Gabriel Landeskog, but that seems pretty far fetched. Plus, Holland has been gun shy during the Cap era when it comes to trades. But this year’s draft is not as certain as in previous seasons, and that doesn’t bode well for a team who desperately needs a top tier talent to get back on the right track. Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou are great starts as building blocks, but they are at least one, if not two, generational players away from getting back to the top of the hockey world again.

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