Lars Eller

Capitals Sign Lars Eller To A Five-Year Contract Extension

February 10, 2018 at 9:54 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

The Capitals have locked up Lars Eller for the long haul as the team announced that they have signed the center to a five-year, $17.5MM contract extension. The $3.5MM cap hit on this new deal matches his AAV on his current contract.

The contract breaks down as follows, courtesy of team writer Mike Vogel:

2018-19: $4MM salary, $1MM signing bonus
2019-20: $3MM salary, $1MM signing bonus
2020-21: $2.5MM salary
2021-22: $3MM salary
2022-23: $3MM salary

Eller is in his second season with Washington after being acquired from Montreal back at the 2016 NHL Entry Draft for a pair of second-round draft picks. He has been a mainstay as their third line pivot since then and is currently is on pace for a career year. He has 11 goals and 17 assists through 53 games; his career high in points was 30 (set with Montreal in 2012-13).

In his career, the 28-year-old has played in 576 games between St. Louis (who drafted him 13th overall in 2007), Montreal, and Washington, tallying 96 goals and 113 assists. He has been quite consistent over that span, notching at least 25 points in each of the last seven seasons.

As was the case last offseason, Washington appears to be heading towards a summer where they will very little flexibility to work with. This signing now gives them more than $62MM committed to just 14 players for 2017-18, per CapFriendly. Even with the salary cap expected to increase for next season, that won’t give them a lot of room to work with to try to add to their roster.

However, Eller’s extension ensures that the Caps will have their center situation under control for at least the next two seasons as Nicklas Backstrom is signed through 2019-20 while Evgeny Kuznetsov is under contract through 2024-25. It also takes one of the more prominent middle men off the open market for free agency this summer. While Eller didn’t make the top-20 in our midseason Free Agent Power Rankings series, he did receive an honorable mention.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: Best Of The Rest

January 19, 2018 at 4:38 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. We ranked the top 20 pending unrestricted free agents based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. You can find numbers 1-10 right here, and 11-20 here.

Today, we’ll look at those names that just missed the cut but will still be interesting options this summer. All of these players were included on at least one ballot, but did not accumulate enough points to crack the top 20.

Michael Grabner, F, New York Rangers — Included on three of five ballots, Grabner is a useful player that nevertheless doesn’t grab many headlines. Despite scoring 20 goals already this season and having a career-high of 34, there aren’t many teams who would slot Grabner into their top-six without hesitation. That’s because he’s best used as a straight speed threat and penalty killer, who counter-punches extremely well but has trouble creating opportunities for his linemates. In fact, Grabner has just 86 assists in 519 career games and has only once registered more helpers than goals in a full season. There’s no doubt he’ll be gobbled up quickly in free agency, but it’s hard to claim he’s one of the absolute top options.

Ian Cole, D, Pittsburgh Penguins — Included on two ballots, Cole is an interesting free agent case that may be clouded by his relationship with his coach this season. Despite being one of Pittsburgh’s more reliable defenders over the past few years, he’s clashed with head coach Mike Sullivan and spent time in the press box as a healthy scratch this season. Whether that plays a role in determining how much he can get on the open market is still to be seen, but there is certainly value in a two-time Stanley Cup defenseman that will be just 29 when he hits free agency.

Henrik Sedin, C, Vancouver Canucks — Amazingly, Sedin was included on just one ballot and was left out of the top 20 despite his twin brother Daniel making it in. He’ll be going wherever Daniel ends up, and you have to wonder whether it will be Vancouver or nothing. Today, agent J.P. Barry told Rick Dhaliwal of NEWS 1130 that he’ll have discussions with the Canucks on the future of the twins before the trade deadline, but there’s a real chance the club will decide to go in a different direction.

Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals — Included on just one ballot, Eller is an example of how valuable centers are in the NHL. Though he’s never scored more than 30 points in a single season, his consistent effort at both ends of the rink will surely land him a multi-year contract around the league. Whether the Capitals are able to keep him around might be dependent on what happens with John Carlson, as the team doesn’t have a lot of money to give out on July 1st. If he’s able to convince people that he’s closer to Nick Bonino than Jay Beagle and not the other way around, he might be able to land himself a nice chunk of money for the next few years.

Erik Gudbranson, D, Vancouver Canucks — The fact that Gudbranson, the third-overall pick form 2010 was included on just one ballot shows how far he’s fallen. The rough defenseman doesn’t give you any offensive upside, but still could be sought after for his youth and physical play. He’s still logging lots of time in Vancouver, and has a really impressive pedigree to ride into at least one contract. What he does with it will determine his future in the league.

Luca Sbisa, D, Vegas Golden Knights — If Sbisa had been healthy all year and part of the Golden Knights run he may have been ranked higher, but his time on injured reserve has hurt his upside going into the summer. If he comes back and proves that he can still use his skating ability to help the team in the playoffs, teams will certainly add him as a depth defender with upside.

Leo Komarov, F, Toronto Maple Leafs — Komarov is still one of Mike Babcock’s favorites in Toronto, but the media and fans alike have started wondering why exactly that is. Though he’s physical, works hard and is one of the best penalty killers in the league, Komarov’s offensive game has fallen off a cliff with just 11 point on the season despite playing regularly with Patrick Marleau and Nazem Kadri. If those numbers don’t improve, he may find it hard to secure anything but fourth-line minutes (and money) on his next team, especially as he heads into free agency at 31.

Metropolitan Notes: Bailey, Hagelin, Stephenson

November 4, 2017 at 5:36 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 2 Comments

The New York Islanders may have come out of last night’s performance with a loss, but it definitely didn’t feel like one. For one, the team’s offense, particularly the power play, seems to have hit its stride and the team finds itself putting up solid numbers. A lot of that credit goes to their top line of John Tavares and Anders Lee. However, it’s the third man on that line that deserves quite a bit of credit, according to Newsday’s Arthur Staple, who gives much of the line’s success to Josh Bailey.

Bailey has been the key to the team’s offensive firepower, especially on the power play and has helped fix that power play which started the NHL season at a 0-for-20. The scribe points out that while Tavares and Lee have combined for five of the team’s nine goals, all coming since their Oct. 19th game against the New York Rangers, it is Bailey’s passing work that has made the difference. The 28-year-old winger is among NHL leaders with six power play assists since then and has had nine assists in the last four games, giving him 13 assists this season. In fact, since the start of last year (the 2016-17 season), Bailey has racked up 56 assists and only 10 players in the NHL have more than him, including names like Connor McDavid, Erik Karlsson, Patrick Kane and Niklas Backstrom.

Unfortunately, for the Islanders while that’s great to see him taking that next step, its also another cause for concern as he is in the last year of a five-year, $16.5MM deal. He undoubtedly will expect a raise, likely a significant one and suddenly along with Tavares, the team will have their work cut out for them this offseason.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette writes that Pittsburgh Penguins’ fourth-line wing Carl Hagelin is well aware that his offense needs to step up. The recently scratched wing has struggled this year offensively. While he’s never been an offensive juggernaut, the 29-year-old has struggled with just a goal and an assist in 14 games. Add that to the $4MM the team owes his this year and next year, his struggles even stand out more. Mackey writes that it’s his shooting percentage that has fallen off a cliff since last year. His 4.4 percent shooting percentage is way down from his earlier career averages of 9.4 percent.
Mike Vogel of NHL.com writes that the Washington Capitals’ line of Lars Eller, Tom Wilson and Chandler Stephenson is thriving in the three games that they’ve been paired together. Eller and Wilson have played together quite a while, but it has been the addition of Stephenson, who replaced the injured Brett Connolly that has made the difference in the line. The 23-year-old might finally be breaking into Washington’s lineup after only playing in 13 games combined in the last two years. So far, his one goal and two assists in four games looks solid. In the three games, the Eller-Wilson-Stephenson line has posted three goals and eight points, the most of all the Capitals lines. The success of the back-end line is welcome since the top six lines have struggled recently.

Capitals Not Discussing Extensions With John Carlson And Lars Eller

October 13, 2017 at 5:38 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

The Capitals have not discussed possible contract extensions with pending unrestricted free agents John Carlson and Lars Eller, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports (video link). Carlson is poised to collect a big raise as he’s on a team-friendly deal with a cap hit just shy of $4MM and was voted the top potential blueliner to hit the market in a poll on PHR earlier this week (and the vote wasn’t particularly close). He has collected at least 37 points in each of the last four seasons while averaging 23:31 per night and point-producing blueliners that can play top pairing minutes are always in high demand and short supply in free agency.

As for Eller, he is carrying a $3.5MM cap charge this season although it’s worth noting he’s collecting $4.75MM in salary. While he has yet to progress into the top-six center that he was projected to become, he is still more than a serviceable third line pivot for Washington and should command a fair amount of interest in free agency if he makes it there. While his game-to-game performance can be inconsistent at times, his production has been the opposite as he has ranged between 25 and 30 points in each of the last six years.

After coming off of a disappointing postseason last year, it’s not too surprising that extension talks with these two haven’t started. If this season doesn’t go well, it’s possible that GM Brian MacLellan could look to take the team in a different direction, something that would be harder to do if these two were already under contract by then.

However, the salary cap is also likely playing a role into this decision. The Caps currently have just shy of $59MM committed to just 13 players for next season per CapFriendly and signing Carlson and Eller to long-term extensions would eat up a significant chunk of the flexibility that they could potentially have next summer.

The two pending UFAs aren’t the only free agents of note that Washington will have to deal with either. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer and winger Tom Wilson highlight their list of restricted free agents while Jay Beagle headlines several other unrestricted free agents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

August 20, 2017 at 4:16 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 2 Comments

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $70,910,107 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jakub Vrana ($863K, two years remaining)

This is where the Capitals have gotten themselves into trouble. Playing to win it all for the last couple of years has taken a toll on the depth of the team’s roster as they have chosen to go with veterans rather than allow youngsters to work their way into the lineup. Now that those contracts have become too much and the team has had to purge a number of free agents to stay under the cap, suddenly there is no depth to look to when they really need it.

Vrana, a former 2014 first-rounder returned to his team in Sweden after being drafted, but signed at the end of the 2015 season and joined the AHL Hershey Bears for three games, tallying five assists. He then added six points in 10 playoff games to establish himself as a top prospect. He scored 35 goals over the next two seasons in Hershey before being promoted to Washington last year. In 21 games, he tallied three goals and three assists and appears ready to step in to a bottom line role this year.

There are a number of minor leaguers that may be ready to step into the lineup such as defenders Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos, but none have seen any NHL action so far in their careers and there is no guarantee they will make the team out of training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D John Carlson ($3.96MM, UFA)
F Lars Eller ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Tom Wilson ($2.0MM, RFA)
F Jay Beagle ($1.75MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Taylor Chorney ($800K, UFA)
F Devante Smith-Pelly ($650K, RFA)

The team has already lost several key defenseman in the past few months, including Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt and Karl Alzner. Could Carlson be next? While the team still has several veteran remaining on their roster, the team might be hard-pressed to avoid losing another veteran defenseman. Currently penciled in to play next to Orlov, at 27 years old, he would be a big loss if the team is unable to bring him back. However, the team will be paying Orpik, Niskanen and Orlov, more than $16MM combined next year. Will Washington find the money for Carlson?

Wilson is a player who the Capitals have high hopes for. The 23-year-old wing is a former 2012 first-rounder and has played four years with the team already, usually among the bottom-tier lines. However, with smoe of the team’s losses on offense, including Marcus Johanson and Justin Williams, this might be the year that Wilson breaks out. He is currently penciled in on the team’s second line and while he managed just seven goals a year ago, he did put up three playoff goals, showing he might be ready for an enhanced role. As a restricted free agent in 2018, the team will have some control on managing his salary.

Perhaps one of the more interesting decisions the team must make is what they plan to do with their backup goalie. Grubauer is considered to be one of the top-young goaltending prospects and while he was not chosen by the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft, many feel that he could be a solid starting goaltender. However, with Holtby in front of him and locked up for three more years, that role would not likely be given to Grubauer in Washington. With minor leaguer Pheonix Copley looking ready to become the team’s backup and the presence of 2014 second-round prospect Vitek Vanacek and 2015 first-round prospect Ilya Samsonov, the team is loaded with goaltending talent. It seems far more likely the team will move Grubauer at some point, maybe at the trade deadline next season to add much needed depth.

Eller is at best a third line center, who averages between 10 and 15 goals per season. Barring a breakout year and he’s already 28 years old so that seems unlikely, Eller at $3.5MM might be too expensive to bring back in a year, but it’s too early to tell. Beagle did have a career year last year and should challenge Eller for that third-line center job with the loser likely to man the fourth line. Beagle, a faceoff specialist, scored 13 goals last year. If the team can bring them back on relatively cheap deals, they might be able to retain them.

Chorney was used primarily as an extra defenseman last year and only managed 18 games last season. With the team’s lack of depth after their top four, Washington may have no choice but to give Chorney a chance to win one of the last spots. The 30-year-old did manage to get into 55 games a year ago. Smith-Pelly, a quiet free agent acquisition this offseason, scored four goals in 55 games for New Jersey last year. Their futures will be decided by whether they make the team and how they perform.

Two Years Remaining

D Brooks Orpik ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Andre Burakovsky ($3MM, RFA)
F Brett Connolly ($1.5MM, UFA)

At 36 now and 38 years old when his contract expires, Orpik’s days could be numbered. While he’s never been a major offensive presence, his defense has helped anchor a Capitals team for several years since coming over from Pittsburgh, but his skills are already beginning to diminish and this deal is considered by many to be one of the worst deals the Caps have made over the last few years.

The player to keep an eye on is Burakovsky, who many believe might have a breakout season now that the team has lightened their forward depth. Burakovsky, a first-round pick in 2013, has 38 goals and 95 points in three seasons and is currently expected to move onto the team’s second line. In two years, he should be a restricted free agent and could ask for quite a contract if he can put together a couple of big seasons for the Capitals. Connolly is another player for the team to keep their eyes on. While the 25-year-old wing had a career year with Washington this year (15 goals, 23 assists), but the team will need to see what he does over the next two before awarding him another deal.

Three Years Remaining

F Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($6.1MM, UFA)

Both players would seem like obvious candidates to be brought back in three years, but there are a lot of factors that determine that. Backstrom will be 33, while Holtby will be 30, so both should still be in their prime. Backstrom’s 23 goals and more importantly, 63 assists were critical to the Capitals success this last year, while Holtby is the cornerstone in goal. There is no guarantee that any youth will step in and supplant them although the Capitals are strong in goaltending depth.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Alex Ovechkin ($9.54MM through 2020-21)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)
D Matt Niskanen ($5.75MM through 2020-21)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM through 2022-23)

The Capitals have a great core and the team has obviously planned to put most of their money and years towards Kuznetsov, Oshie and Orlov as well as Ovechkin and Niskanen.

The team’s success has revolved around Ovechkin since the day he was drafted and little will change. He is locked up for another four seasons and no one would be surprised if they brought him back after that at age 35. Even though there was some trade chatter about moving on from their star, Washington will likely do everything it can over the next four years to compete for a championship. However, Ovechkin didn’t fare as well this year. After three 50-goal seasons, the 31-year-old wing dropped to a 33-goal season. Still great, but not his usual standard. Can he take his game back to that previous level?

The team then inked three of their stars to long-term deals this offseason. Kuznetsov is just 25 and should be solid for years, but was he worth $7.8MM per season? That’s a lot of money for good, but not great production. He suffered a down year compared to his 2015-16 season, but he’s coming off a 19 goal, 40 assist season, the Capitals have to hope he can take his game to the next level and fill in the offense they will lose this year. Otherwise that’s a lot of money spent on an average center.

Orlov also was extended this offseason. The 26-year-old defenseman signed a six-year, $30.6MM deal to remain with Washington. He finished the season with six goals and 33 points and may be ready to take over the defensive reigns. Many people thought Oshie would leave during free agency due to the Capitals’ cap issues, but the team found a way to keep the 30-year-old forward, signing him to an eight-year extension at $5.75MM. Whether he will be worth that much in his late 30s is unknown, but his 33 goals last year was a career high.

Niskanen remains solid on defense and will be needed even more with some of the offensive losses. The 30-year-old defenseman put up another solid season, scoring five goals and 34 assists for 39 points.

Buyouts

None

Best Value: Backstrom
Worst Value: Kuznetsov

Looking Ahead

The Capitals are a well-run franchise that has done an excellent job of spending money on their core of stars, while drafting well enough to have talent ready to go. They may have overreached themselves this past year as they lost quite a bit of talent and have several gaping holes on defense, but the team seems to have put together a great team that just has not been able to get themselves to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Ovechkin still has a number of years left, so expect the Capitals to be aggressive and make moves to add more scoring and more defense over the next year or two. Don’t be shocked to see a goaltender get moved to make room for their prospects, but also to find new talent they can plug into their lineup.

Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More

June 17, 2017 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:

Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post was the first reputable source to release her team’s protection list, as she confirmed the Washington Capitals’ names not long after the 5:00 PM ET deadline. The lists includes the expected names: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller, Tom Wilson, Matt Niskanen, John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov, and Braden Holtby. While not surprising, the list does not include long-time Jay Beagle, promising young players Nate Schmidt and Brett Connolly, and a oft-rumored target of the Golden Knights, backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer.

L.A.-based hockey writer John Hoven got the list of protected players for the Los Angeles Kings, which confirms that they will indeed protect eight-skaters, including four defenseman, rather than the 7/3 protection scheme. Among the safe are Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez, and the key decision, Derek Forbort. Star goalie Jonathan Quick was also obviously protected. While the Kings succeeded in protecting the most valuable players on the roster, they still have left defenseman Brayden McNabb and a large assortment of forwards including Trevor Lewis, Nic Dowd, and Nick Shore open to selection.

Sportsnet’s Eric Francis, who covers the Calgary Flames, has some key names for his team as well. Francis confirmed that the Flames did not protect 2016 free agent acquisition Troy Brouwer, but did opt to save younger assets like Sam Bennett, Micheal Ferland, and Curtis Lazar. Although Francis stops there, the rest of Calgary’s list is somewhat self explanatory with newly-acquired goalie Mike Smith, defensive core of Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton, and cornerstone forwards Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Michael Frolik, and Mikael Backlund as obvious choices.

One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.

Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.

Expected Extensions Prior To Expansion

June 1, 2017 at 6:46 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

Over the next few weeks, leading up to June 17th, when each team must submit their list of protected players from the Expansion Draft, there is going to be a flurry of activity. The Vegas Golden Knights are expected to make several side deals regarding the selection process, while the other 30 teams will be working through trade proposals with one another as well. Many teams will also make smaller moves, such as extensions and buyouts, to make the expansion process easier on themselves. Examples could include potential extensions by Carolina or San Jose if they decide they would like to protect Lee Stempniak or Mikkel Boedker respectively. However, there remain several teams that must re-sign a current player, following logic anyway, prior to Saturday the 17th, or else risk having to expose and possibly losing a major piece instead. Each team must expose two forwards and one defenseman that played in at least 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons and also have term remaining on their contract. While meeting these quotas is not a problem for some teams, others lack the roster depth in long-term contracts to do so. No team wants to be pressured into exposing a valued player just to fill that quota, so instead they will sign another current player with the caveat that he will be left unprotected in the Expansion Draft. Such situations played out all year long, with Blackhawks’ forward Jordin Tootoo, Hurricanes’ defenseman Klas Dahlbeck, and, the most publicized of all, Flames’ defenseman Matt Bartkowksi. Yet, unsolved situations still exist. Below are some of the most dire situations and who could benefit from an extension in the near future in order for their team to comply with Expansion Draft rules:

Team: New Jersey Devils

Situation: The re-building Devils nonetheless have a solid core of forwards that they would like to keep together: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac, and Mike Cammalleri. New Jersey should be within their means to protect this group, expect that it leaves only Devante Smith-Pelly as a forward meeting the 40/70 qualification. Even for those who doubt the effectiveness going forward of the oft-injured 34-year-old Cammalleri, surely the Devils could find a better player to sacrifice than he or Smith-Pelly if they so choose.

Expected Extension: As a young team, the devils are chock full of impending restricted free agents. However, not all RFAs are created equal. Beau Bennett, Jacob Josefson, and Stefan Noesen are all candidates for extension and exposure, but Bennett played a bigger role for New Jersey than even Smith-Pelly in 2016-17 and Noesen played the best hockey of his young career after a mid-season trade from the Anaheim Ducks. Josefson has shown next to no progress in six years in New Jersey. Look for the Devils to try to work out an extension with the 25-year-old center to fill the hole in their expansion plan.

Team: New York Rangers

Situation: The Devils’ cross-town rivals are in a similar situation. The Rangers have put together a core of forwards that is the envy of most teams in the league, but it could soon be torn apart. Many feel that backup goalie Antti Raanta will be Vegas’ choice, but New York doesn’t want to give them any reason not to go that route and instead steal a good young forward. The team is already reserved to the fact that 2016-17 breakout star Michael Grabner has to be exposed, but they would rather protect all five of Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes, in addition to Rick Nash, whose No-Movement Clause prevents exposure, and impending RFA Mika Zibanejad. The only problem is that this protection scheme leaves only Grabner as a 40/7o forward.

Expected Extension: The Rangers are not without options for a forward to extend and expose. RFA’s Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg, Brandon Pirri, and Matt Puempel would all meet the quota criteria if handed a new deal, as would UFA Tanner Glass. While New York may not be eager to lose any of the four, none significantly outshine Raanta or Grabner in terms of selection value anyway, giving the team every reason to get an extension done with one or more. Fast seems certain to get a new contract from the Rangers anyway, so don’t be surprised if such a deal lands in the next week or two.

Team: Washington Capitals

Situation: The reigning President’s Trophy winners may have a handshake agreement in place with pending UFA T.J. Oshie, but there is a reason that they’ll wait to make it official: the Capitals face expansion problems as is and can’t afford to add another contract to the mix. Most of Washington’s protection lineup is straightforward: Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and impending RFA’s Evgeny Kuztensov and Andre Burakovsky. This leaves two forward slots open to choose between Lars Eller, Jay Beagle, and Tom Wilson. This is a difficult decision in itself, but unless a move is made, the Capitals would actually have to choose just one, leaving the other two to meet the 40/70 quota. That is a real tough situation for the Capitals.

Expected Extension: Adding to the confusion of the situation is upcoming RFA Brett Connolly, who by all accounts outplayed all three of the players he is competing for protection with. Other than re-signing UFA Daniel Winnik, Connolly presents the only real extend-and-expose option for Washington. The Capitals would definitely like to retain Connolly, but if they choose to re-sign and sacrifice him to save one of the others, Vegas might just take the bait. Like the Rangers, Caps backup goalie Philipp Grubauer is expected to be a target of the Knights and who Washington chooses to expose at forward may be inconsequential. However, there is risk there. Washington could overpay Connolly in salary or term in an attempt to ward off a selection, but that could come back to bite an often cap-strapped squad. A lot remains unknown in the Capitals’ expansion strategy.

Team: Winnipeg Jets

Situation: Unlike many teams whose youth has benefited them in the expansion process, as their core is mostly ineligible as first or second-year players, the Jets have many players who are just over that hump and in need of protection. Unfortunately, to protect all of those players, the Jets also fall short of the two-forward quota. Locks for protection are captain Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, and Mathieu Perreault, but Winnipeg would clearly like to make youngsters Adam Lowry, Joel Armia, and Andrew Copp part of that mix too. Veteran center Shawn Matthias was underwhelming in his first year and Winnipeg and is up for exposure, but he is the last man left who meets the 40/70 qualification. In order to protect all seven of these key forwards, the Jets must extend another player currently on the roster who fits the bill

Expected Extension: The situation seems obvious – long-time winger Chris Thorburn, whose days with the organization date back to Atlanta, is an impending unrestricted free agent who has remained loyal to the franchise throughout his career as they have in turn. Extending Thorburn would be completely harmless, as he stands almost no chance to be selected and can then continue to anchor the Jets checking line for another year or two. The only other 40/70 player is Marko Dano, who has incredible upside, but has yet to put it together at the NHL level. Vegas may have interest in Dano, but Winnipeg should stick to protecting their established young players and let the Golden Knights take the risk of selecting and trying to negotiate a new deal with the under-performing RFA.

Finding Room For Oshie And Alzner

May 14, 2017 at 9:12 am CDT | by Seth Lawrence 3 Comments

T.J. Oshie has pretty clearly expressed his desire to remain in Washington, culminating in his most recent statement this Friday where he stated “I’m a Capital, and I feel that’s where I’ll be.” The difficulty for GM Brian McClellan obviously lies in fitting him under the team’s cap ceiling while affording other free agents, notably including RFA Evgeny Kuznetsov. Looking forward to next season, and barring any major trades, the Capitals will likely need to let go of the clutch Justin Williams in light of his impressive outing these playoffs. He will easily command $3 MM or more, and things are tight enough as is. Assuming the Capitals lose a defenseman in expansion, perhaps Dmitry Orlov, and the seemingly inevitable departure of Kevin Shattenkirk, their D-corps will look very different. Because of these losses, they will be pressed to find room for their shutdown defender Karl Alzner, also impending UFA.

If Oshie prices himself out, Alzner is a fantastic consolation prize. The ideal scenario for the team would be re-signing both, but contracts would absolutely need to be moved out. A realistic possibility the Capitals could consider is moving one of Brooks Orpik or Matt Niskanen. Both were signed in the summer of 2014, and both contracts would be difficult to move. Niskanen is undoubtedly the better hockey player at this juncture, but he also is under contract for another 4 seasons. At 30 years old, this is not too great of a risk, but his pricetag of $5.75 MM may prove too steep for a multitude of teams. He also has a limited No-Trade Clause, which would complicate any possible transaction.

The more preferable scenario would be to unload Orpik, but the 36 year old does not look long for the league, especially in this post-season. Although he is only under contract for 2 more seasons, his $5.5 MM would be quite the expense for many teams. Perhaps Vegas or a relatively young bottom dwelling team (Colorado, Buffalo) would be interested in his veteran savvy, but it would be a difficult sell. Orpik should not be considered a core piece, of the defense moving forward, especially with youngsters Dimitri Orlov and Nate Schmidt proving so valuable. His starts in the defensive zone have steadily declined over the past 6 seasons, and for a supposedly shutdown player, his quality of competition has also taken a nosedive. He contributes nearly nothing offensively for a team that thrives off of its offensive creativity, potting only 18 goals in over 1000 games played, including 0 this past season to go with 14 assists. His hitting ability is well-documented, but for a team that employs Tom Wilson, physicality will not be a problem. Finding a way before expansion to unload his contract would be a godsend, but it will take some maneuvering on the part of management.

Assuming the Capitals don’t move a contract out, they still will be left exposing one or both of Orlov and Schmidt. Up front, it’s obvious that Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, Kuznetsov, Wilson, and two of the Oshie (if re-signed), Andre Burakovsky(RFA), Lars Eller trio will be protected. (Eller himself could be an option in a move for cap relief) On the backend, Niskanen and John Carlson look like locks, and a decision will need to be made regarding the third protected player. The wildcard for Washington is that, considering his strong play in very limited action, backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer could instead be claimed by Vegas.

It’s difficult to foresee where the Capitals go from here, realizing there will be bidding wars for the two players they are likely to want to retain in Oshie and Alzner. Even in a best case scenario, this Capitals team will not have the strength it did in 2016-17.

Metro Division Notes: Capitals, Smith, Flyers, Shero

May 13, 2017 at 10:05 am CDT | by Glen Miller Leave a Comment

With perhaps the most complete team top-to-bottom in franchise history, the Washington Capitals believed they had all the pieces to finally propel themselves past the arch-rival Pittsburgh Penguins and into the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in Alex Ovechkin’s 12-year NHL career. However, after yet another disappointing defeat at the hands of the Penguins, Washington must now once again go back to the drawing board in search of the right formula. Unlike in years past when the roster’s shortcomings were easy to identify, Capitals GM Brian McLellan will have a much tougher time this summer identifying an obvious solution to the team’s deficiencies, as Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post writes.

As Khurshudyan notes, since assuming the top job with the Caps, MacLellan has strategically set about filling holes on the roster as he attempted to construct a championship team. First he went to work to address the team’s defense corps, inking veteran blue liners Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik as free agents in the summer of 2014. The next year, the GM brought in Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie via free agency and trade respectively, to “bolster the top-six.” Last summer, MacLellan dealt two draft picks to Montreal for Lars Eller and signed Brett Connolly to add more speed and skill to the team’s third line. The cherry on top was acquiring prized, puck-moving defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, adding an impact player to an already stacked lineup while at the same time keeping him from going to a conference rival (it was believed Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Rangers were also in the Shattenkirk sweepstakes). While it all added up to perhaps the best team in the league on paper, in the end Washington couldn’t exorcise their postseason demons and once again are left wondering what could have been.

Clearly MacLellan will again try to construct a Stanley Cup-caliber club but with Oshie, Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Williams all scheduled to be UFA’s, and with less than $22MM available in projected cap space, it’s likely the team will lose at least two key contributors from that group. Complicating matters is the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov will be RFA’s and in line for significant raises over their 2017 salaries. Barring some savvy salary cap maneuverings this summer, it’s quite possible the Capitals best chance to win a Stanley Cup with Ovechkin on the roster just passed them by.

Expansion Draft Issues: Post-Trade Deadline

March 5, 2017 at 6:51 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

Last month, we looked at several teams facing some tough situations in regards to the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft and offered potential solutions to how they could address their needs for forwards, defensemen and goalies at the NHL Trade Deadline. With March 1st over and done with, many of those squads have solved their problems with signings or acquisitions.

Calgary Flames

Problem: Defense

Status: Solved

The Flames solved their problem of otherwise having to expose Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, or Dougie Hamilton with the ingenious signing of Matt Bartkowski, the only defenseman on the planet who was both free to acquire and automatically eligible for exposure in the draft. It’s a good thing they signed him too, since they ended up trading away their best fall-back option, young defenseman Jyrki Jokipakka.

Carolina Hurricanes

Problem: Defense

Status: Unsolved

It was a pretty quiet deadline in Raleigh, as the ’Canes shipped out Ron Hainsey and Viktor Stalberg and then called it a day. What they didn’t do was acquire another body on the blue line to help solve their lack of a defenseman to expose. Carolina is still facing the problem of All-Star Justin Faulk being the only defenseman on the roster currently meeting the criteria for mandated exposure, due to the majority of their defensemen being too young to be eligible altogether. There is no way that Faulk is there for the taking by Vegas, but GM Ron Francis is left with only two choices: extend impending RFA Klas Dahlbeck or extend impending UFA Matt Tennyson and make sure he plays in seven more games this season, as he’s currently short of the 40-game mark.

Chicago Blackhawks

Problem: Forwards

Status: Solved

While the Blackhawks are always a threat to make a surprising change, GM Stan Bowman went a more traditional route in solving his expansion draft. Faced with the possibility of losing young Ryan Hartman, one of just two players who, at the time, met the criteria for exposure, Bowman simply decided to extend grinder Jordin Tootoo for another year. Tootoo qualifies for the two-forward quota, so regardless of his lack of production, he was a cheap solution to Chicago’s problem.

Dallas Stars

Problem: Forwards

Status: Unsolved

The Stars’s problem wasn’t as simple as trading for or acquiring just one player. They likely will have to decide between exposing Antoine Roussel and Cody Eakin when push comes to shove, but they shouldn’t have to expose both. That is the current state of the Stars after they shipped away several impending free agents at the deadline, but failed to bring in anyone that meets the Expansion Draft criteria. Luckily, they have quite a few options in-house that they could extend and expose such as Ales Hemsky, Jiri Hudler, Adam Cracknell, and Curtis McKenzie.

New Jersey Devils

Problem: Forwards

Status: Unsolved

The Devils got what they could for their free agent pieces at the deadline, trading away P.A. Parenteau for a draft pick and Kyle Quincey for Dalton Prout. However, they missed out on the chance to fix their forward problem in the Expansion Draft in the process. The Devils want to protect their core five of Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Mike Cammalleri, and Travis Zajac, but that leaves Devante Smith-Pelly as the lone forward who qualifies for the quota. Now, New Jersey and GM Ray Shero are in a position where they must re-sign a young forward like Jacob Josefson, Beau Bennett, or Stefan Noesen (if he plays in 13 more games) and subsequently make them available, which they likely would have preferred not to.

New York Rangers

Problem: Forwards

Status: Unsolved

The Rangers also passed up a chance at solving their draft conundrum on deadline day. New York acquired two forward, Daniel Catenacci and Taylor Beck, but neither one qualifies for exposure. In order for the Rangers to protect all of their impressive, young core forwards, they’ll now need to extend one of Brandon Pirri, Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg or potentially Matt Puempel or Tanner Glass if either one plays another handful of games this season. Regardless, the Rangers don’t need to be overly worried about who they expose as their second forward, as they’ve likely come to grips with the strong possibility that their first forward, Michael Grabner, will be targeted by Vegas GM George McPhee.

Ottawa Senators

Problem: Forwards

Status: Unsolved

The Senators were busy at the deadline and their biggest move was also the move that impacts their expansion plans the most, the acquisition and extension of Alexandre Burrows. Although the Senators gave up a potential future star in Jonathan Dahlen to get Burrows, an extension prior to playing a single minute with the team means that GM Pierre Dorian had expansion on his mind. Yet, Burrows only solves one issue, as the Senators needed two eligible forwards – assuming they plan on protecting Bobby Ryan – if they also want to keep Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Derick Brassard, Kyle Turris, and Zack Smith out of the Golden Knights’ grasp. Luckily, they have a veritable laundry list of extension options on the roster now, ranging from recent additions Tommy Wingels and Viktor Stalberg to veterans Chris Neil, Chris Kelly, and Tom Pyatt.

Philadelphia Flyers

Problem: Goaltending

Status: Solved

Not too many people were excited about this move, but the Flyers announced on deadline day that they had extended struggling goalie Michal Neuvirth for two more years at $2.5MM per year. This means that they can expose Neuvirth to meet the one-goalie quota and protect promising prospect Anthony Stolarz. However, Philly overpaid to make this happen and it seems very unlikely that the Knights would bite on Neuvirth’s new contract. They’re likely saddled with his .887 save percentage and 2.90 goals against average for another two seasons. So really one problem solved, another created.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Problem: Forwards

Status: Solved

The Leaf’s expansion problem was never a big one, it was just that they would have to expose and potentially lose Leo Komarov when they really didn’t have to. They understood the scenario was though and did what was expected of many teams but actually done by no one else: threw in a qualifying forward to an existing deal. Toronto’s trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins was centered around Frank Corrado and a fourth-round pick, but by tossing Eric Fehr into the mix, especially after he cleared waiver, the Leafs now have a body that can occupy the other forward spot in the Expansion Draft and can then be forgotten in the AHL if he isn’t selected. A smart move by the legend, Lou Lamoriello.

Washington Capitals

Problem: Forwards

Status: Unsolved

Finally, the Caps may have made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, but did nothing to help their Expansion Draft situation with two important forwards. Because they can only protect seven forwards, Washington will have to expose one of Lars Eller and Jay Beagle. While it’s a toss up between the two – Eller has had a disappointing season but was acquired just this summer for two second-rounders, Beagle is a career Cap who is a face-off wizard and always good for moderate production – they certainly don’t want to expose both, as they currently would have to. The easiest solution is to extend and expose either Daniel Winnik or Brett Connolly. The again, if the Capitals are confident that Philipp Grubauer is going to be Vegas’ pick, as many are speculating, maybe they just bite the bullet and leave both Eller and Beagle unprotected after all.

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