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Alexei Yashin

Zdeno Chara Signs With New York Islanders

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October 10: Per CapFriendly, Chara’s one-year deal carries the league-minimum cap hit of $750,000. The deal contains an additional $750,000 in performance bonuses.

September 18: A future Hall of Famer is heading back to where it all began. As first reported by ESPN’s Kevin Weekes and then confirmed by the team, the New York Islanders have signed veteran defenseman Zdeno Chara to a one-year contract. Financial terms have not been disclosed.

Chara was of course drafted by the Islanders all the way back in 1996. He played his first four pro seasons with the club before being dealt to the Ottawa Senators in 2001 in the infamous Alexei Yashin trade. Since then, Chara has established himself as one of the best defensemen of his generation. A Stanley Cup champion, Norris Trophy winner, seven-time all-league defenseman, the NHL’s active leader in career plus/minus and penalty minutes, and an all-time captain, Chara has accomplished more than anyone could have expected when he last with the Islanders. However, he still wants to add another title to his trophy shelf and feels a return to New York could be the best fit.

The long-time Bruins captain, Chara left Boston after the 2019-20 season as the team was looking to move on with a younger core of defensemen and only offered Chara a depth role. The Washington Capitals took him on as an affordable, one-year rental and he provided solid stay-at-home defense all year. Yes, it was a career-low in ice time and a drop-off in most statistical categories, but at 44 years old that is to be expected. The skating and skill are largely gone from his game, but Chara was still a plus player who contributed physically and was not a liability on the back end. Having see up-close what Chara can do, the Islanders have signed him away from the division rival Capitals and will likely use him in a similar fashion. However, given their far more conservative system than Washington’s and the presence of several other dependable defensive blue liners such as Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield, and fellow veteran Andy Greene, Chara will be under less pressure. This could serve to keep him well-rested and even more effective defensively late in the season and into the playoffs of his 24th NHL campaign.

Chara wanted to stay on the east coast near his family in Boston while still landing with a team that could give him one last shot at the Stanley Cup. It is safe to say that the reigning “East Division” champs have as good a shot as anyone who fits that description. Add in a homecoming to the team who started his illustrious career and the pairing of the Chara and the Islanders seems to be an excellent fit.

One Trade The Islanders Would Like To Have Back

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While we await the return of the NHL, it’s a great time to look back at some of the influential transactions in NHL history. Yesterday we looked at the Capitals ill-fated midseason acquisition of winger Martin Erat. The deal cost them Filip Forsberg, who has developed the way Nashville hoped he would, while Erat provided little value at all during his short stay in Washington. But if we’re going to look at trades that helped shape our current era of NHL hockey – for better or worse – we should start at the top (or the bottom).

For trades worth second-guessing, there are very few as satisfying as the deal made between the Islanders and Senators way back in 2001. The deal sent Zdeno Chara to Ottawa along with Bill Muckalt and a 1st-round pick in exchange for Alexei Yashin. It’s frankly amazing that a deal from 2001 would include players still contributing in the NHL today, some nineteen years later, but that speaks to the impact of this transaction.

To find where the Islanders went wrong, there’s no better place to start than with Chara. Lots must go right for a player to reach his full potential, but that’s exactly what happened after Chara went to Ottawa. The deal came after Chara spent parts of four seasons in Long Island, and the then-23-year-old hadn’t really taken off. He was coming off a season in which he played in 82 games, but managed only 9 points and a plus/minus of -27. The Islanders weren’t a playoff team, finishing the 2000-2001 season in fifth place with 52 points.

Of course, things went much better for Chara from that point forth, as the hulking blueliner earned six Norris nominations (one win), seven All-Star honors, and he won a Stanley Cup with the Bruins in 2011. He’s also the NHL’s active leader in Plus/Minus (288) and Defensive Win Shares (99). The Senators only got four seasons from Chara, but they were among the best regular-season teams in the NHL during those years, making the playoffs each of those four seasons, and even managed to beat the Islanders in the first round of the 2002-2003 playoffs.

To make matters worse, Chara wasn’t the only piece the Islanders sent out on that ill-fated day in 2001. Bill Muckalt also went north in that deal, though the right-winger is at least one piece Islanders’ fans don’t have to lose sleep over. He played just one season in Ottawa, and he would be out of the league not two years later.

There’s one final piece. The Islanders sent the 2nd overall selection in the draft to the Senators, a pick that turned into center Jason Spezza. Spezza starred in the middle for eleven years in Ottawa, making two All-Star teams as one of the game’s stellar goal creators. He’s 91st all-time in the NHL now in Adjusted Points (1015) and 92nd all-time in Assists (599). At age-37, he’s a veteran presence on a Toronto Maple Leafs team that will look to enter the playoff field with a win against Columbus whenever play resumes.

Considering the Senators nabbed two all-timers from New York, this has to qualify as a pretty good deal for them. But there’s a give-and-take to every good deal right? Perhaps not so much. The Senators sent Alexei Yashin to the Islanders. Yashin was a fine player, just a year removed from a second-place finish for the Hart Trophy, but they gave up a lot to get him. To make matters worse, the Islanders doubled down and gave him a 10-year, $84MM contract less than three months after the trade, a contract that would have paid Yashin through his age-37 season. For examples of players remaining viable that deep into their careers, we need not look any further than Chara and Spezza. Unfortunately, the Islanders bet on the wrong horse. Yashin wouldn’t come close to recouping the value the Islanders poured into him. They bought him out after the sixth year.

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

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Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

  • First pick: 90 percent,
  • Second pick: 60 percent
  • Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
  • Picks 5-20: 5 percent
  • Picks 21-30: 2 percent
  • Picks 31-60: 1 percent
  • Picks 61+:  .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

The Richest Contracts In NHL History

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Friday was a very busy day for Jamie Benn.  First, he underwent surgery to repair an injured core muscle that leaves his availability for Team Canada at the World Cup in question.  Then the good news for him came in the form of an eight year, $76MM extension that makes him the highest paid player in team history.  It’s one of the richest deals in league history but falls just short of the top-10 of all time, at least in part.  Here’s a closer look at the priciest NHL deals ever.

1) Alex Ovechkin (13 years, $124MM) – Following his entry-level deal, Ovechkin essentially signed a two-pronged extension, one for six years at $9MM per season and then another at seven years and $10MM per year.  While you can’t call his contract a bargain, he has been one of the NHL’s top players for many years and is expected to continue to do so for a long time to come.

2) Shea Weber (14 years, $110MM) – Offer sheets have been few and far between in recent years but Weber was the most prominent to receive one as the Flyers inked him to a heavily frontloaded one in the summer of 2012.  Interestingly enough, offer sheets cannot contain any trade restrictions which likely played a role in Weber’s trade to the Canadiens last month.

3) Sidney Crosby (12 years, $104.4MM) – Prior to the current CBA which set a term limit of eight years on any contract, Crosby inked a highly frontloaded deal to stay with the Penguins until he’s 38.  The extra money up front was enough to keep Crosby at an $8.7MM cap hit, matching his sweater number.

4) Ilya Kovalchuk (15 years, $100MM) – New Jersey’s second attempt at a Kovalchuk deal in the summer in 2010 was enough to avoid another cap circumvention penalty.  That’s really the only good news that came from it as just three years later, Kovalchuk ‘retired’ to return to play in the KHL.  The Devils are dealing with a salary cap recapture penalty of $250K until 2024-25.

5) Alexei Yashin (10 years, $87.5MM) – This was an outright disaster for the Islanders, who inked Yashin to this deal back in 2001. He failed to come close to expectations and wound up being bought out with four years left on the deal at a cost of over $17.6MM.  On top of that, the Isles traded Zdeno Chara and the draft pick that yielded Jason Spezza as part of the package to land Yashin.

6) Vincent Lecavalier (11 years, $85MM) – Tampa Bay was hoping they had a fair deal with their franchise player at the time when they signed him to this deal back in 2009.  However, like Yashin, he struggled under the weight of the new deal while injuries took a toll as well.  The Lightning bought him out in 2013 and are in the midst of paying him over $32.6MM not to play for them through 2026-27.  Lecavalier retired earlier this offseason.

7/8) Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews (8 years, $84MM) – Chicago inked their two superstars to identical contracts two years ago, a year before each were eligible for unrestricted free agency.  The Blackhawks continue to find ways to stay under the cap for now but that could become more of a challenge if the salary cap continues to stay close to where it is now as the years progress.

9) Anze Kopitar (8 years, $80MM) – Back in January, the Kings reached this deal with their new captain to avoid the risk of losing him to free agency this summer.  Kopitar has been Los Angeles’ most consistent forward for many years now and should remain their franchise forward for many years to come.

10) Jaromir Jagr (7 years, $77MM) – Washington signed Jagr back in 2001 to what was the richest deal in league history at that time.  However, the lockout in 2004-05 introduced a 24% rollback just two years into the contract which cost Jagr over $21.5MM in salary.  Jagr, now 44, is still going strong in the NHL and signed a one year, $4MM guaranteed deal with Florida in May.  He could also earn another $1.515M in games played and award bonuses.

If you take Jagr’s deal off because of the subsequent rollback, Benn’s new $76MM contract as well as Evgeni Malkin’s current identical pact with the Penguins become tenth on the all-time list.

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