Snapshots: Yakupov, Olympics, Meier
When Nail Yakupov didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the St. Louis Blues this spring, many people around the league believed it may take a move overseas to find new life in his career. We even wrote on the subject here on PHR, saying that a move back to the KHL seemed like his best option. Yakupov was clear that wasn’t his goal, and instead he secured a one-year, $875K contract from the Colorado Avalanche who may prove to be an even better fit.
Andi Duroux of BSN Denver takes an incredibly thorough—and extremely insightful—look into the career of the 2012 first-overall pick, and how that career can get back on track with last year’s last place team. Yakupov should have every opportunity in Colorado to show he can still produce offensively, but will need to show he can play in both ends of the rink to take advantage of his immense potential. If he does, he could be in for a big raise next summer.
- While rumors of the NHL having a backup plan to still possibly go to the 2018 Olympics seem far-fetched, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet does bring us some news on that front. It looks like players that are on AHL-only contracts will be allowed to represent their country in the games, but not those on two-way deals currently playing in the AHL. It will be interesting to see if a player who has signed his entry-level contract but is playing in the junior ranks would be included in this, but either way that leaves some interesting names for the potential squad. While Team USA may be made up of many collegiate players, other more veteran options with international experience like Peter Mueller, who was playing on an AHL deal with the Providence Bruins last year could be considered. For Team Canada, recent CHL free agents like Darren Raddysh and Stefan LeBlanc could join the veterans playing internationally.
- A question that has come up several times in our Live Chats is that of a potential replacement for Patrick Marleau in San Jose. After the long-time Shark signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency, fans of the team were looking around hoping someone would be brought in to replace his spot in the top six. Kevin Kurz of CSN was asked a similar question about how the lines will shake out, and he projected Timo Meier to take the left wing spot beside Logan Couture on the second line. That would be a big responsibility for the 20-year old Meier, after making his NHL debut this season with just six points in 34 games. The ninth-overall selection in 2015, he has all the makings of a top-line power forward but has yet to put it all together and find any consistency in his game.
Vegas Golden Knights & Trade Deadline Capital
As we look back at the recent NHL Expansion Draft, it seems as though the Vegas Golden Knights had a very clear plan. Three tenets seem to influence most if not all of their selections. 
- Leverage your opportunity to gain draft picks and young players in exchange for taking a bad contract.
- If unwilling to deal, take players with some value and only one or two years remaining on their contract.
- If no players like that exist, take a pending free agent to avoid burdening your cap.
Though some may look at this and see an obvious strategy, it is amazing how closely the Golden Knights followed it. A quick look at their CapFriendly page and you can immediately see that they avoided players who were under contract long-term in the draft, as they currently have 16 players that will be unrestricted free agents either next summer or the year after that. Their only long-term contracts are Reilly Smith, David Clarkson and Erik Haula—players they acquired in trade (the Wild gave them the chance to sign Haula)—and Cody Eakin, who is under contract for a third season.
That cap flexibility is paramount to the Golden Knights, as it was never about building through the expansion draft. Almost none of the assets gained through a direct selection should play much of an impact on the team long term, and because of it GM George McPhee will be holding court on another transaction season next year. The trade deadline should be hugely influenced by the Golden Knights, with a large number of assets on the market.
James Neal, David Perron and Jon Marchessault, arguably the three most prolific offensive weapons the Golden Knights selected in the draft are all UFAs next summer, and would each command a hefty price on the open market. Established goal scorers are moved each spring for big packages, and each of these three are no different.
Brayden McNabb and Luca Sbisa headline the pending UFAs on defense and could each fetch a solid return at the deadline, especially if given increased roles for Vegas. Even Jason Garrison could be of some interest if the team is willing to retain a portion of his already (at that point) prorated salary. Garrison will probably get some powerplay time with the Golden Knights to boost his value come the deadline.
Past the UFAs, the team also has several pending RFAs already in their mid-twenties. Colin Miller for example will turn 25 just after the season begins, and is three years away from unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely that the team competes for a Stanley Cup while Miller remains a cheap option, meaning moving him in the next year could fetch the biggest return. As a puck-moving defensemen he should get plenty of opportunity to show off his offensive upside.
Though some players will be moved out before the season starts because of the simple fact they currently have too many, it’s not unlikely that the Golden Knights will be holding all the cards come February once again. They could easily have half a dozen players on any trade bait list, and add to the impressive number of draft picks they already own.
Matt Martin Speaks Out On John Tavares Free Agency
Since John Tavares didn’t sign a contract extension with the New York Islanders when he became eligible on July 1st, most of the hockey world has started to speculate on what it means for his future. Tavares will be a free agent in the summer of 2018, and will have contract discussion follow him all year like Steven Stamkos a year ago. Though Tavares has never said anything that would make you think he wants to leave New York, many believe the uncertainty regarding their future arena plans and the relative disappointments on the ice throughout Tavares’ career could push him to greener pastures. 
For what it’s worth, former teammate and friend Matt Martin of the Toronto Maple Leafs—a long speculated destination for the Toronto-born Tavares—doesn’t think so. Martin spoke to Brian Compton of NHL.com about several things including Tavares’ pending free agency, and made it clear that he supports any decision his friend will make.
As a friend of mine would it be great to have him? Absolutely. But I want him to do whatever will make him happy and wherever he feels where he can win and be successful is what you hope for.
Like Stamkos, Tavares would enter free agency as a young superstar capable of starting a bidding war between a dozen teams if not more. Top line centers in their prime don’t hit the market very often (see: never), and Tavares could easily challenge Connor McDavid for the title of highest paid player in the league should he make it that far. McDavid earned $12.5MM per season but was giving up just four UFA seasons and left money on the table to help the Oilers. Tavares will be just 27 next summer, and would basically have no comparables in free agency since the salary cap was introduced.
The speculation is only going to continue until a contract is signed, even though that may last until after next season like Stamkos last year. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward even met with other teams in the pre-July 1 window, but eventually settled at home for an eight-year deal. A similar script would be a distraction all year for the Islanders, but is a real possibility.
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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Canadiens Likely To Part Ways With Markov
Andrei Markov is, without a doubt, the best defensive free agent still on the market. Just recently, PHR’s Brian La Rose profiled the veteran free agent. He is coming off another productive season with the Montreal Canadiens, putting up six goals and 36 assists in 62 games this past season, but has been at an impasse with the Canadiens after the 38-year-old blueliner has demanded a two-year deal. Two weeks ago, the Canadiens made it quite clear that they had made their final offers to both Markov and Alexander Radulov, who not long after opted to sign with Dallas. That just leaves Markov.
According to Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette, the longer the process takes, the less likely that Markov will return to Montreal. In fact, the scribe says that would be the norm for long-time Canadiens as very few of them have finished their careers in Montreal. The last Canadiens’ captain to finish their career in Montreal was Bob Gainey in 1989. He cites that Markov is currently tied for second on the Canadiens’ list for all-time points as a defenseman with Guy Lapointe with 572 career points. Only Larry Robinson is ahead of him with an unreachable 833 points. However, in both their cases, neither finished their careers in Montreal. LaPointe played for both St. Louis and Boston, while Robinson ended his career in Los Angeles.
Cowan spoke to former NHL player Sergei Berezin, who is Markov’s offseason trainer, who says that even though Markov got married recently, he only took four days off and went back to work training. The veteran hopes to play longer than two years, but his asking price is too much and while his numbers remain good, his numbers have been in decline over the last few years. Only two years ago, he put up 50 points, only to see those numbers decline each year.
Markov who is representing himself in negotiations, is asking for $6MM per year for two more seasons. According to CapFriendly, the Canadiens have more than $9MM in cap space remaining and could use some defensive depth after losing Alexei Emelin and Nathan Beaulieu this offseason and Markov says he would like to remain in Montreal. But, Cowan says that Markov’s time may be up unless Markov drops some of his demands.
Aging Stars Left Behind
Probably the most intriguing subplot of the NHL off-season this summer has been the total unwillingness of many teams to sign older players. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton are two notable examples, but even in their cases there was a lot of unnecessary complication. Marleau had to leave the only franchise he’d ever played for to get an additional contract year, while Thornton had to settle for a single year in San Jose. While hockey fans are enamored by the seemingly ageless Jaromir Jagr, GMs aren’t so impressed. What gives?
The league is heading in a particular direction, and that direction is speed and puck possession. Analytics are absolutely dominating every conversation with NHL executives, agents, coaches, and scouts. For the first year however, we’re seeing this level of scrutiny drastically and obviously affecting player signings and market value. If you had said even three years ago that 46-point hall-of-fame winger would have difficulty finding a home on a cheap NHL contract, you’d have been laughed out of the room.
Shane Doan and Jarome Iginla are interesting cases, each for different reasons. Doan was the ultimate team player in Arizona, dealing with nearly two decades of ownership drama and poor-performing teams. He’s also fiercely disliked within his division for his skills in the art of aggravating. He hits, he plays defense, and he still has the offensive acumen to contribute to a third or fourth line. No takers. Iginla has certainly slowed down, but he looked like he belonged in Los Angeles. He has undeniable scoring ability, and 20 goals wouldn’t be out of the question. His leadership skills were lauded endlessly as the gritty, take-no-prisoners captain in Calgary. At the historically underappreciated left-wing position, he stands out in the new millennium as truly elite. Not to mention, he’s still desperate for that first Cup ring. No takers. Andrei Markov will be 39 years old, but he’s one of the most consistent powerplay quarterbacks in the post-lockout age. He can still skate relatively well and would even be able to handle second-pairing minutes. His shot is a bomb and it seems he never misses a pass when he has a lane. He can’t find a team willing to offer him a second year on his contract. No takers.
Then there’s Jagr. Jagr is easily within the top 50 players of all time. He’s flirting with 2000 points and he controls the puck better than almost anyone in the league, even at the ripe age of 45. He hasn’t posted a negative Corsi since the stat was tracked, and is only a season removed from 66 points, which helped propel Florida into the playoff for the first time in an eon. His foot speed is really his only drawback, and yet, he sits and waits. It’s questionable as to how much of the holdup is based on his desire for adequate compensation, but the fact remains that he is still unclaimed.
Ultimately, the issue for these players comes down to a combination of issues. Firstly, analytics. For those of us who aren’t particularly adept, this overwhelming trend may seem tiresome. There are certainly players in the league who agree that it leaves a lot to be desired. Still in its infancy, Fenwick and Corsi percentiles are really all that has been accepted by the mainstream of hockey fandom, while most front offices have entire positions dedicated to this developing field. A huge part of the disconnect between onlookers and organizations lies in that difference in emphasis of these advanced stats.
Secondly, many teams in the league simply don’t feel they are truly ready to compete for a Stanley Cup. At the moment, under 10 teams probably believe they can contend in the upcoming season, barring a Cinderella run. The league’s parity is arguably at an all-time low since 2004. Consequently, many teams are looking to rebuild or retool their teams, to gain young talent and speedy, dynamic players who will be a part of the future for multiple years. The aforementioned players are all seeking one or two year deals, and many teams simply aren’t thinking in that timeframe. Additionally, the few teams who do feel set to contend right now (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc.) are tight up against the cap and don’t want to allocate valuable dollars to a “declining” asset.
Whether this scenario is fair or not to aging players, it seems a dynamic that is here to stay. It would be wholly unsurprising to see this avoidance of over-35 contracts become a trend in the coming years. They’ve certainly bitten teams hard in the past, and perhaps general managers are backing away for good reason. Most of these players should still find a fit, but the prices could be exceptionally low.
Penguins’ 3rd-Line Center Options
With the loss of Nick Bonino to Nashville via free agency, the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a gaping hole down the middle. For the first time in over a decade, the center position is now one of relative weakness. It’s always a possibility that Matt Cullen decides to re-sign for one more year, but he will not be able to carry the load of a typical 3rd-line center. Cullen showed signs of slowing down toward the tail-end of the team’s playoff run, and he was only averaging 13:55 a game through the regular season. At 41 years old, he simply won’t be a viable long-term option. The Penguins likely have high hopes for Zach Aston-Reese to make a push in training camp, but he is an unknown quantity at the NHL level. GM Jim Rutherford had 5 potential trade options in the works prior to July 1st, according to the very reliable Josh Yohe of DKPittsburghSports. Talks either fizzled or were put on the back-burner, but one might imagine the number of available targets is far fewer now. With Dallas’ three-year signing of Radek Faksa, there is one fewer name left for consideration. Vegas seems to be content with merely flipping defensemen from here on in, although names such as Cody Eakin and William Karlsson shouldn’t be thrown out entirely. Erik Haula is likely a pipe-dream, but he’s another possible target. Matt Duchene was linked for a time, but between the high cost and the stubbornness of Colorado GM Joe Sakic to make a move, he seems incredibly unlikely.
Who are the safest bets for an off-season move? Or will Pittsburgh enter the season with someone unproven slotting behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?
Bozak has made tons of sense since his name was first mentioned. A lot has been made of his relationship with Phil Kessel. When they played on a line together in Toronto, Kessel saw some of his best career production. More than that however – the Leafs are in a bit of cap pinch as they will look to free up dollars for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the next two seasons. They certainly aren’t in any hurry to drop underneath the ceiling due to LTIR intricacies, but moving out Bozak’s $4.2 MM for this next season would be a forward looking move. If he’s due a raise, it’s likely they’ll lose him for far less, as his contract expires at the end of 2017-18. The move makes sense for Pittsburgh because of the Kessel relationship, but also because he fits the mold of the Pittsburgh squad. He’s a solid skater, sees the ice well, and hustles back into his own zone. His playmaking abilities would be a wonderful fit on the cheap to aid the high-powered offense, and the player would be a positive possession asset to remove the stress from the bigger guns. Bozak does have a modified no-trade clause, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being included on his list of non-tradeable teams.
Staal saw a lot of success in Pittsburgh before he was traded away to Carolina at the 2012 draft. Jordan was traded to that team in particular due to his desire to player with his older brother Eric Staal. Seeing as Eric is no longer in the picture, it would make sense that Staal might be open to a Pittsburgh reunion. Staal is one of the better defensive centers in the league, and has been forced to take a more uncomfortably offensive role in Carolina. Staal’s biggest downside is that he isn’t the most agile skater, but he’s not any slower than Nick Bonino was. That said, he can play the shutdown role and be a total nuisance for top opponents. Rutherford loves the player, as he was the GM of Carolina when they initially acquired the player, for a hefty sum of Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and a 1st-round pick (which became Derrick Pouilot). According to Yohe, Staal is apparently open to a return, and the nostalgic element of the team’s fanbase is clamoring for this to happen. Rutherford stated on a local radio segment with Ron Cook that “to his knowledge he (Staal) isn’t available”, but he’s played coy with the media in the past.
Out Of Left-Field
Rutherford has been known to throw the hockey world for a loop with some of his trades. The James Neal–Patric Hornqvist trade shocked just about everyone, and the Phil Kessel trade is still being discussed to this day. If there’s one thing we should expect from him, it’s the unexpected. There are a few lesser options out there for Rutherford to explore, and management may want to have the Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin contracts put to paper before making any sort of transaction. It seems unlikely that anything will happen until those deals get done. Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette that there are “hundreds of names on (his list)”, and that it’s “a patient process”. Could Detroit be willing to move Andreas Athanasiou? Could Bryan Little be pried from Winnipeg for a young defenseman? It’s hard to speculate as to where exactly management have set their sights, but Rutherford is generally willing to overpay to “get his man”. There is the slight likelihood that they enter the season with that hole left unfilled, but it’s hard to imagine. Until more dominoes fall, Rutherford is likely to bide his team and search for the correct deal.
Top Ten Remaining UFAs
Before NHL free agency opened up this summer, PHR published a list of the top-50 NHL UFAs. Two weeks into the offseason and the majority have signed deals—leaving 18 out of 50 still looking for a new NHL contract. Below are the top ten players still on the market:
[initial writeups credited to PHR’s Gavin Lee]
Minor Moves: Gravel, Gibson, Gustafsson
The Los Angeles Kings have come to an agreement with another one of their restricted free agents, signing Kevin Gravel to a one-year two-way contract worth $650K. Interestingly, Gravel had elected arbitration and was scheduled for a hearing on August 2nd, but instead took the league minimum on a one-year deal. The team did not release the guaranteed or AHL salary, likely part of why he settled.
Gravel played 49 games for the Kings last season in his first extended look with the team, registering seven points in just over 14 minutes a night. With the departure of Brayden McNabb to the Vegas Golden Knights, Gravel will likely be asked to play a bigger role and could even find himself in a full-time gig. He is still waivers exempt however, giving the team options if they think someone else is a better option on the bottom pairing.
- The New York Islanders have signed goaltender Christopher Gibson to a one-year two-way deal, bringing him back to battle with new acquisition Kristers Gudlevskis for an AHL role. In just seven games last season Gibson recorded a .912 save percentage but hasn’t been able to show the potential that made him a second-round pick in 2011. Just 24 he’s still developing as a netminder, but will have to make big strides soon if he wants to make an impact at the NHL level.
- The Chicago Blackhawks have re-signed Erik Gustafsson to a one-year deal, a contract that will send him to unrestricted free agency next summer should he not get into 39 games in the NHL this year. After playing 41 contests in 2015-16 with the Blackhawks and recording a solid 14 points, Gustafsson spent the entire season in the AHL in 2016-17. While he again showed off his offensive upside while there, scoring 30 points in 68 games, it was a disappointing year for him to not make it back to the NHL. Now with Niklas Hjalmarsson in Arizona and Brian Campbell still unsigned, there could be an opportunity for him to step up and fill a full-time role. With depth options like Michal Rozsival not being an ideal option on a full-time basis, the Blackhawks could look to newcomer Jan Rutta along with Gustafsson and Ville Pokka as potential options.
Free Agent Profile: Andrei Markov
Generally speaking, there isn’t much of a market for 38-year-old defensemen with plenty of mileage on them. However, Andrei Markov is looking to buck that trend and is currently the most prominent blueliner remaining on the open market.
Markov has been with the Canadiens since they drafted him in the sixth round (162nd overall) back in 1998. Montreal went into last season looking to reduce his role and ice time after he logged nearly 24 minutes per game the previous year. They did just that for the majority of the campaign but by the end, he was back on the top pairing, something that carried through into the postseason.
Despite missing 19 games due to a groin muscle injury, Markov still had a fairly productive season, collecting 36 points (6-30-36) in 62 contests, ranking his 16th league-wide in points per game. He followed that up by logging over 26 minutes per night in the playoffs, showing he can still handle a big role when he needs to.
It’s a combination of those two factors that have Markov continuing to push for a two-year deal, something that would have seemed highly unlikely just a few months ago. At this point, there have been no takers which is why he’s still a free agent.
Potential Suitors
The Canadiens are the obvious one here. GM Marc Bergevin has publicly stated that they would like to bring him back and Markov said after the season that he would like to return. While they added Karl Alzner in free agency, he doesn’t exactly replace the offensive production that Markov brings to the table. However, Montreal is only willing to offer him a one-year deal and last week, Bergevin voiced some frustration over the asking price.
Assuming that Markov isn’t likely to sign with a rebuilding team at this stage of his career, his market is limited to teams with postseason aspirations and a fair amount of cap or budget space available. That’s a fairly small list overall.
Among the teams on that list would be the Oilers, who have the money for one year before Connor McDavid’s contract kicks in and they’ll be without a key cog in Andrej Sekera to start the season so there’s an important role that Markov could fill. Florida is looking to rebound after a tough 2016-17 season and have the cap space to work with although signing him would push their defensive payroll close to $29MM. The Devils have plenty of cap space and could up the ante financially but given where they are in their rebuilding process, Markov isn’t going to be the player that pushes them over the top.
Projected Contract
Last month, we projected a one-year, $5MM deal for Markov with Montreal, who ranked 14th on our top-50 list. Given the last of options and the unwillingness of teams to give him his two-year, $12MM asking price, there’s a good chance that his new contract will still come in at or around that dollar value. The bigger question at this point is whether he’ll return to the only NHL team he has ever played for or if he’ll look to finish his career elsewhere.
Sabres To Wait On Sam Reinhart Extension
While new GM Jason Botterill and the Sabres front office are reportedly working diligently on an extension for star center Jack Eichel in hopes of having a deal done this summer, they aren’t placing the same emphasis on a new contract for a fellow young forward. With one year remaining on his entry-level contract, it seems that the Sabres are content to let Sam Reinhart reach restricted free agency next off-season before working out a new deal.
Reinhart, the #2 overall pick in 2014, has not yet performed to the same level as Eichel, the #2 overall pick in 2015, or even the Winnipeg Jets’ Patrik Laine, the #2 overall pick in 2016. While Reinhart has certainly been an important part of the Buffalo offense the past two years, it seems that the jury is still out on his long-term value. Reinhart has played in 79 games in each of the past two seasons, racking up 42 and 47 points respectively. While that is a nice contribution, a near-number one pick is expected, at the very least, to register 20 goals and 20 assists in a season, which Reinhart has yet to do. While Reinhart’s two-way game is coming along nicely, he has also been abysmal at the face-off dot. Reinhart simply has a ways to go to reach his potential and is thus not a priority to re-sign with a year remaining.
None of this is to say that Reinhart is not a valued member of the current and future Sabres, only that he has not reached the level of some of his teammates. A new deal for RFA goalie Robin Lehner and an extension for Eichel, two players that simply play larger roles in Buffalo, are taking precedence. However, when next summer roles around, Reinhart will get his fair share of attention. Still just 21 years old, Reinhart is a power play weapon and an expert sniper. Botterill acknowledged that he’s “excited with Sam”, but added “I don’t think something from a contract standpoint will be happening this summer”. Reinhart has another year to show that he’s still growing as a player and is worth perhaps more than what he’s accomplished so far, and that opportunity may just work out in his favor.