Ilya Kovalchuk Still Has “Dreams Left” To Accomplish In NHL
If you’re sick and tired of hearing about Ilya Kovalchuk this summer, know that it isn’t over just yet. After a long back and forth that ended in the Russian sniper signing back with SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL for another season, he’s not finished with his desire to return to the NHL. According to Igor Eronko of Sport-Express, Kovalchuk today said that this would be his last year in the KHL, and that “there are some dreams left” in North America. 
Kovalchuk of course left for the KHL in the middle of a 15-year contract from the New Jersey Devils, spurning many fans along the way. His return this year would have been predicated on the Devils completing a sign-and-trade, something that he won’t have to worry about next year. His rights are relinquished by the team when he turns 35, and he’ll be granted unrestricted free agency on July 1st.
It’s unclear how many teams would have interest in the then 35-year old, as there are some restrictions on contracts signed at that age. It would however allow him to sign a one-year incentive laden contract, built with a low salary and performance bonuses for games played, points scored and other things. That’s if he doesn’t get multi-year options, as many believed he was after this year.
Coming off a 78 point season in the KHL last year, it’s clear that Kovalchuk can still play at a high level, but whether that game translates back to the NHL is unclear. Remember this is a player who twice scored 52 goals in a season, and was one of the most dynamic mixes of speed and power in the entire league.
This seems like the end of the Kovalchuk rumors for now, but as the 2017-18 season comes to a close expect it to ramp back up. For now, Russia will look forward to having him on their Olympic roster and SKA will try to win another Gagarin Cup.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Tatar, McNeil, Umberger, Tuulola
Tomas Tatar‘s arbitration hearing took place this morning, at the conclusion of which the arbitrator was given 48 hours to reach a decision on his salary for next season. Tatar cannot be awarded a two-year contract through arbitration since he will reach unrestricted free agency next year, but as Craig Custance of The Athletic points out could still work out a long-term deal with the Red Wings before the decision come in. We saw a similar situation play out in 2014 with P.K. Subban, who had his hearing with the Montreal Canadiens before signing an eight-year contract a day later.
Last week it was reported the two sides were still quite a bit away in terms of an agreement, with Tatar turning down a five-year $25MM contract. While they may have worked closer to a deal, a one-year decision through arbitration would likely spell the forward’s end in Detroit. Tatar would immediately hit the trade block if he hadn’t already, with many teams likely after him as a rental piece as the season went on. If Ken Holland and the Red Wings didn’t think they could get a deal done, they would have to look long and hard at any proposals for Tatar that would improve the club long-term.
- The Syracuse Crunch have signed Reid McNeill to an AHL contract, taking him away from the St. Louis organization where he spent 2016-17 and adding him to the Tampa Bay Lightning affiliate. McNeill was a sixth-round pick of the Penguins in 2010, but has never been able to turn his size and defensive ability into a tryout at the NHL level. In 61 games last year split between the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and Chicago Wolves, he registered ten points.
- Dallas Stars beat writer Mike Heika of SportsDay held a Q&A with readers and answered all sorts of questions regarding the Stars and their big offseason moves. One of them revolved around R.J. Umberger, who has signed a professional tryout with the team after a full year away from the game. Heika believes the invitation to camp is more of a friendly opportunity handed out by Umberger’s former coach in Ken Hitchcock than a real tryout for the Stars this season. If Umberger can show he’s healthy and rejuvenated, a successful camp under a familiar system could look good around the league. Now 35, Umberger could potentially sign a one-year contract with performance bonuses, though those kinds of deals come with risks as well.
- The Montreal Canadiens have re-signed Yannick Veilleux on a two-way minor league deal. The contract will pay different amounts depending on whether Veilleux plays in the AHL or ECHL this season. Veilleux spent last year in the Montreal system bouncing between the two leagues, finding some success with St. John’s. Selected in the fourth round by the St. Louis Blues once upon a time, he’s still waiting for his first chance at the NHL level.
- The Calgary Flames will watch Eetu Tuulola return to Finland for the upcoming season, leaving the Everett Silvertips where he had played in 2016-17. Tuulola was a sixth-round pick of the Flames in 2016 and tried his hand in the Canadian junior ranks with 31 points in 62 games. He’ll play for HPK in Finland’s Liiga next year, a professional team that can offer a bit more development opportunity than Everett.
Making Your Case At An Arbitration Hearing
With the salary arbitration figures for Tomas Tatar and Colton Parayko leaking today, it is worthwhile to take a look at what actually goes on at an arbitration hearing. Salary arbitration determines a player’s salary through a hearing governed by a third-party arbitrator. The arbitrator takes all the permissible evidence into account in deciding how much a player should be paid per year. This section outlines three key elements of that process: term, permissible evidence, and the decision.
Term
The party being brought to salary arbitration chooses whether the decision is for one or two years. If a team chooses, however, they are restricted to one year if the player is eligible for unrestricted free agent the following year.
Evidence
Parties can present witnesses, affidavits (sworn written testimony), documents, statistics, and any other relevant evidence during the hearing, subject to certain restrictions (see more below). The CBA suggests the following preferred evidence:
- the player’s overall performance in previous seasons;
- number of games played in context of injuries or illnesses (or lack thereof);
- length of service in the league or with the team;
- how much a player contributed to the success/failure of his team last season;
- special qualities of leadership or public appeal relevant to his team responsibilities (i.e. the intangibles).
- performance of players considered comparable to the player in question by either party; or
- compensation of players considered comparable to the player in question by either party.
As stated above, this list is subject to certain restrictions. The CBA prohibits parties from introducing or using the following:
- any contract signed outside restricted free agency, including one signed after a team exercises a walk-away right;
- any contract of a player not considered a comparable by either party;
- any contract otherwise permissible that is signed less than three hours before the hearing starts.
- qualifying offers;
- the negotiation history between the parties, including any offers made;
- testimonials, videotapes, newspaper columns, press game reports, or similar materials;
- references to walk-away rights;
- any award issued by an arbitrator that preceded a team exercising its walk-away rights;
- a team or NHL’s financial condition;
- a team’s salary cap (or floor) situation;
- any salary arbitration award issued in ’05-’06; or
- compensation information for salary arbitration awards issued before July 22nd 2005.
There are three main takeaways from the evidentiary rules. One, the arbitrator’s decision is based largely on a player’s stats and intangibles, and the compensation received by players with similar stats and intangibles. Two, visual evidence such as highlight reels and game tape do not factor in to the arbitrator’s decision. This makes any determination strictly fact-based. Finally, if, during a players hearing, a comparable player signs an otherwise admissible contract, that contract cannot be used as evidence by either party.
Decision
The arbitrator’s decision comes within 48 hours after the hearing closes. The decision states:
- the contract term (one or two years as mentioned above);
- NHL salary to be paid by the team for that term;
- whether it is a two-way contract, and how much the player is paid in the AHL; and
- a statement explaining the decision.
Walk Away Rights
A team may reject an arbitration decision in a player-elected salary arbitration if the award is $3.9MM or more per year. That threshold increases by the same percentage rate that the average league salary increases.
A team does not have unlimited walk away rights. Rather, the number of times a team can reject a decision is tied to the number of decisions issued. A team facing up to two decisions has one walk away right. A team facing three of four decisions has two walk away rights. Finally, a team facing five decisions has three walk away rights.
The consequences of rejecting a decision depends on whether the club elected a one or two year term. If the decision is for a one year term, the player immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent. If the decision is for a two year term, the player and team enter into a one year contract for the salary awarded. The player becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of that year.
Snapshots: Yakupov, Olympics, Meier
When Nail Yakupov didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the St. Louis Blues this spring, many people around the league believed it may take a move overseas to find new life in his career. We even wrote on the subject here on PHR, saying that a move back to the KHL seemed like his best option. Yakupov was clear that wasn’t his goal, and instead he secured a one-year, $875K contract from the Colorado Avalanche who may prove to be an even better fit.
Andi Duroux of BSN Denver takes an incredibly thorough—and extremely insightful—look into the career of the 2012 first-overall pick, and how that career can get back on track with last year’s last place team. Yakupov should have every opportunity in Colorado to show he can still produce offensively, but will need to show he can play in both ends of the rink to take advantage of his immense potential. If he does, he could be in for a big raise next summer.
- While rumors of the NHL having a backup plan to still possibly go to the 2018 Olympics seem far-fetched, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet does bring us some news on that front. It looks like players that are on AHL-only contracts will be allowed to represent their country in the games, but not those on two-way deals currently playing in the AHL. It will be interesting to see if a player who has signed his entry-level contract but is playing in the junior ranks would be included in this, but either way that leaves some interesting names for the potential squad. While Team USA may be made up of many collegiate players, other more veteran options with international experience like Peter Mueller, who was playing on an AHL deal with the Providence Bruins last year could be considered. For Team Canada, recent CHL free agents like Darren Raddysh and Stefan LeBlanc could join the veterans playing internationally.
- A question that has come up several times in our Live Chats is that of a potential replacement for Patrick Marleau in San Jose. After the long-time Shark signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency, fans of the team were looking around hoping someone would be brought in to replace his spot in the top six. Kevin Kurz of CSN was asked a similar question about how the lines will shake out, and he projected Timo Meier to take the left wing spot beside Logan Couture on the second line. That would be a big responsibility for the 20-year old Meier, after making his NHL debut this season with just six points in 34 games. The ninth-overall selection in 2015, he has all the makings of a top-line power forward but has yet to put it all together and find any consistency in his game.
Vegas Golden Knights & Trade Deadline Capital
As we look back at the recent NHL Expansion Draft, it seems as though the Vegas Golden Knights had a very clear plan. Three tenets seem to influence most if not all of their selections. 
- Leverage your opportunity to gain draft picks and young players in exchange for taking a bad contract.
- If unwilling to deal, take players with some value and only one or two years remaining on their contract.
- If no players like that exist, take a pending free agent to avoid burdening your cap.
Though some may look at this and see an obvious strategy, it is amazing how closely the Golden Knights followed it. A quick look at their CapFriendly page and you can immediately see that they avoided players who were under contract long-term in the draft, as they currently have 16 players that will be unrestricted free agents either next summer or the year after that. Their only long-term contracts are Reilly Smith, David Clarkson and Erik Haula—players they acquired in trade (the Wild gave them the chance to sign Haula)—and Cody Eakin, who is under contract for a third season.
That cap flexibility is paramount to the Golden Knights, as it was never about building through the expansion draft. Almost none of the assets gained through a direct selection should play much of an impact on the team long term, and because of it GM George McPhee will be holding court on another transaction season next year. The trade deadline should be hugely influenced by the Golden Knights, with a large number of assets on the market.
James Neal, David Perron and Jon Marchessault, arguably the three most prolific offensive weapons the Golden Knights selected in the draft are all UFAs next summer, and would each command a hefty price on the open market. Established goal scorers are moved each spring for big packages, and each of these three are no different.
Brayden McNabb and Luca Sbisa headline the pending UFAs on defense and could each fetch a solid return at the deadline, especially if given increased roles for Vegas. Even Jason Garrison could be of some interest if the team is willing to retain a portion of his already (at that point) prorated salary. Garrison will probably get some powerplay time with the Golden Knights to boost his value come the deadline.
Past the UFAs, the team also has several pending RFAs already in their mid-twenties. Colin Miller for example will turn 25 just after the season begins, and is three years away from unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely that the team competes for a Stanley Cup while Miller remains a cheap option, meaning moving him in the next year could fetch the biggest return. As a puck-moving defensemen he should get plenty of opportunity to show off his offensive upside.
Though some players will be moved out before the season starts because of the simple fact they currently have too many, it’s not unlikely that the Golden Knights will be holding all the cards come February once again. They could easily have half a dozen players on any trade bait list, and add to the impressive number of draft picks they already own.
Matt Martin Speaks Out On John Tavares Free Agency
Since John Tavares didn’t sign a contract extension with the New York Islanders when he became eligible on July 1st, most of the hockey world has started to speculate on what it means for his future. Tavares will be a free agent in the summer of 2018, and will have contract discussion follow him all year like Steven Stamkos a year ago. Though Tavares has never said anything that would make you think he wants to leave New York, many believe the uncertainty regarding their future arena plans and the relative disappointments on the ice throughout Tavares’ career could push him to greener pastures. 
For what it’s worth, former teammate and friend Matt Martin of the Toronto Maple Leafs—a long speculated destination for the Toronto-born Tavares—doesn’t think so. Martin spoke to Brian Compton of NHL.com about several things including Tavares’ pending free agency, and made it clear that he supports any decision his friend will make.
As a friend of mine would it be great to have him? Absolutely. But I want him to do whatever will make him happy and wherever he feels where he can win and be successful is what you hope for.
Like Stamkos, Tavares would enter free agency as a young superstar capable of starting a bidding war between a dozen teams if not more. Top line centers in their prime don’t hit the market very often (see: never), and Tavares could easily challenge Connor McDavid for the title of highest paid player in the league should he make it that far. McDavid earned $12.5MM per season but was giving up just four UFA seasons and left money on the table to help the Oilers. Tavares will be just 27 next summer, and would basically have no comparables in free agency since the salary cap was introduced.
The speculation is only going to continue until a contract is signed, even though that may last until after next season like Stamkos last year. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward even met with other teams in the pre-July 1 window, but eventually settled at home for an eight-year deal. A similar script would be a distraction all year for the Islanders, but is a real possibility.
Will John Tavares eventually re-sign with the Islanders?
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No 60% (742)
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Yes 40% (493)
Total votes: 1,235
[Mobile users click here to vote in the poll!]
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Canadiens Likely To Part Ways With Markov
Andrei Markov is, without a doubt, the best defensive free agent still on the market. Just recently, PHR’s Brian La Rose profiled the veteran free agent. He is coming off another productive season with the Montreal Canadiens, putting up six goals and 36 assists in 62 games this past season, but has been at an impasse with the Canadiens after the 38-year-old blueliner has demanded a two-year deal. Two weeks ago, the Canadiens made it quite clear that they had made their final offers to both Markov and Alexander Radulov, who not long after opted to sign with Dallas. That just leaves Markov.
According to Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette, the longer the process takes, the less likely that Markov will return to Montreal. In fact, the scribe says that would be the norm for long-time Canadiens as very few of them have finished their careers in Montreal. The last Canadiens’ captain to finish their career in Montreal was Bob Gainey in 1989. He cites that Markov is currently tied for second on the Canadiens’ list for all-time points as a defenseman with Guy Lapointe with 572 career points. Only Larry Robinson is ahead of him with an unreachable 833 points. However, in both their cases, neither finished their careers in Montreal. LaPointe played for both St. Louis and Boston, while Robinson ended his career in Los Angeles.
Cowan spoke to former NHL player Sergei Berezin, who is Markov’s offseason trainer, who says that even though Markov got married recently, he only took four days off and went back to work training. The veteran hopes to play longer than two years, but his asking price is too much and while his numbers remain good, his numbers have been in decline over the last few years. Only two years ago, he put up 50 points, only to see those numbers decline each year.
Markov who is representing himself in negotiations, is asking for $6MM per year for two more seasons. According to CapFriendly, the Canadiens have more than $9MM in cap space remaining and could use some defensive depth after losing Alexei Emelin and Nathan Beaulieu this offseason and Markov says he would like to remain in Montreal. But, Cowan says that Markov’s time may be up unless Markov drops some of his demands.
Aging Stars Left Behind
Probably the most intriguing subplot of the NHL off-season this summer has been the total unwillingness of many teams to sign older players. Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton are two notable examples, but even in their cases there was a lot of unnecessary complication. Marleau had to leave the only franchise he’d ever played for to get an additional contract year, while Thornton had to settle for a single year in San Jose. While hockey fans are enamored by the seemingly ageless Jaromir Jagr, GMs aren’t so impressed. What gives?
The league is heading in a particular direction, and that direction is speed and puck possession. Analytics are absolutely dominating every conversation with NHL executives, agents, coaches, and scouts. For the first year however, we’re seeing this level of scrutiny drastically and obviously affecting player signings and market value. If you had said even three years ago that 46-point hall-of-fame winger would have difficulty finding a home on a cheap NHL contract, you’d have been laughed out of the room.
Shane Doan and Jarome Iginla are interesting cases, each for different reasons. Doan was the ultimate team player in Arizona, dealing with nearly two decades of ownership drama and poor-performing teams. He’s also fiercely disliked within his division for his skills in the art of aggravating. He hits, he plays defense, and he still has the offensive acumen to contribute to a third or fourth line. No takers. Iginla has certainly slowed down, but he looked like he belonged in Los Angeles. He has undeniable scoring ability, and 20 goals wouldn’t be out of the question. His leadership skills were lauded endlessly as the gritty, take-no-prisoners captain in Calgary. At the historically underappreciated left-wing position, he stands out in the new millennium as truly elite. Not to mention, he’s still desperate for that first Cup ring. No takers. Andrei Markov will be 39 years old, but he’s one of the most consistent powerplay quarterbacks in the post-lockout age. He can still skate relatively well and would even be able to handle second-pairing minutes. His shot is a bomb and it seems he never misses a pass when he has a lane. He can’t find a team willing to offer him a second year on his contract. No takers.
Then there’s Jagr. Jagr is easily within the top 50 players of all time. He’s flirting with 2000 points and he controls the puck better than almost anyone in the league, even at the ripe age of 45. He hasn’t posted a negative Corsi since the stat was tracked, and is only a season removed from 66 points, which helped propel Florida into the playoff for the first time in an eon. His foot speed is really his only drawback, and yet, he sits and waits. It’s questionable as to how much of the holdup is based on his desire for adequate compensation, but the fact remains that he is still unclaimed.
Ultimately, the issue for these players comes down to a combination of issues. Firstly, analytics. For those of us who aren’t particularly adept, this overwhelming trend may seem tiresome. There are certainly players in the league who agree that it leaves a lot to be desired. Still in its infancy, Fenwick and Corsi percentiles are really all that has been accepted by the mainstream of hockey fandom, while most front offices have entire positions dedicated to this developing field. A huge part of the disconnect between onlookers and organizations lies in that difference in emphasis of these advanced stats.
Secondly, many teams in the league simply don’t feel they are truly ready to compete for a Stanley Cup. At the moment, under 10 teams probably believe they can contend in the upcoming season, barring a Cinderella run. The league’s parity is arguably at an all-time low since 2004. Consequently, many teams are looking to rebuild or retool their teams, to gain young talent and speedy, dynamic players who will be a part of the future for multiple years. The aforementioned players are all seeking one or two year deals, and many teams simply aren’t thinking in that timeframe. Additionally, the few teams who do feel set to contend right now (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc.) are tight up against the cap and don’t want to allocate valuable dollars to a “declining” asset.
Whether this scenario is fair or not to aging players, it seems a dynamic that is here to stay. It would be wholly unsurprising to see this avoidance of over-35 contracts become a trend in the coming years. They’ve certainly bitten teams hard in the past, and perhaps general managers are backing away for good reason. Most of these players should still find a fit, but the prices could be exceptionally low.
Penguins’ 3rd-Line Center Options
With the loss of Nick Bonino to Nashville via free agency, the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a gaping hole down the middle. For the first time in over a decade, the center position is now one of relative weakness. It’s always a possibility that Matt Cullen decides to re-sign for one more year, but he will not be able to carry the load of a typical 3rd-line center. Cullen showed signs of slowing down toward the tail-end of the team’s playoff run, and he was only averaging 13:55 a game through the regular season. At 41 years old, he simply won’t be a viable long-term option. The Penguins likely have high hopes for Zach Aston-Reese to make a push in training camp, but he is an unknown quantity at the NHL level. GM Jim Rutherford had 5 potential trade options in the works prior to July 1st, according to the very reliable Josh Yohe of DKPittsburghSports. Talks either fizzled or were put on the back-burner, but one might imagine the number of available targets is far fewer now. With Dallas’ three-year signing of Radek Faksa, there is one fewer name left for consideration. Vegas seems to be content with merely flipping defensemen from here on in, although names such as Cody Eakin and William Karlsson shouldn’t be thrown out entirely. Erik Haula is likely a pipe-dream, but he’s another possible target. Matt Duchene was linked for a time, but between the high cost and the stubbornness of Colorado GM Joe Sakic to make a move, he seems incredibly unlikely.
Who are the safest bets for an off-season move? Or will Pittsburgh enter the season with someone unproven slotting behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?
Bozak has made tons of sense since his name was first mentioned. A lot has been made of his relationship with Phil Kessel. When they played on a line together in Toronto, Kessel saw some of his best career production. More than that however – the Leafs are in a bit of cap pinch as they will look to free up dollars for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the next two seasons. They certainly aren’t in any hurry to drop underneath the ceiling due to LTIR intricacies, but moving out Bozak’s $4.2 MM for this next season would be a forward looking move. If he’s due a raise, it’s likely they’ll lose him for far less, as his contract expires at the end of 2017-18. The move makes sense for Pittsburgh because of the Kessel relationship, but also because he fits the mold of the Pittsburgh squad. He’s a solid skater, sees the ice well, and hustles back into his own zone. His playmaking abilities would be a wonderful fit on the cheap to aid the high-powered offense, and the player would be a positive possession asset to remove the stress from the bigger guns. Bozak does have a modified no-trade clause, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being included on his list of non-tradeable teams.
Staal saw a lot of success in Pittsburgh before he was traded away to Carolina at the 2012 draft. Jordan was traded to that team in particular due to his desire to player with his older brother Eric Staal. Seeing as Eric is no longer in the picture, it would make sense that Staal might be open to a Pittsburgh reunion. Staal is one of the better defensive centers in the league, and has been forced to take a more uncomfortably offensive role in Carolina. Staal’s biggest downside is that he isn’t the most agile skater, but he’s not any slower than Nick Bonino was. That said, he can play the shutdown role and be a total nuisance for top opponents. Rutherford loves the player, as he was the GM of Carolina when they initially acquired the player, for a hefty sum of Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and a 1st-round pick (which became Derrick Pouilot). According to Yohe, Staal is apparently open to a return, and the nostalgic element of the team’s fanbase is clamoring for this to happen. Rutherford stated on a local radio segment with Ron Cook that “to his knowledge he (Staal) isn’t available”, but he’s played coy with the media in the past.
Out Of Left-Field
Rutherford has been known to throw the hockey world for a loop with some of his trades. The James Neal–Patric Hornqvist trade shocked just about everyone, and the Phil Kessel trade is still being discussed to this day. If there’s one thing we should expect from him, it’s the unexpected. There are a few lesser options out there for Rutherford to explore, and management may want to have the Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin contracts put to paper before making any sort of transaction. It seems unlikely that anything will happen until those deals get done. Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette that there are “hundreds of names on (his list)”, and that it’s “a patient process”. Could Detroit be willing to move Andreas Athanasiou? Could Bryan Little be pried from Winnipeg for a young defenseman? It’s hard to speculate as to where exactly management have set their sights, but Rutherford is generally willing to overpay to “get his man”. There is the slight likelihood that they enter the season with that hole left unfilled, but it’s hard to imagine. Until more dominoes fall, Rutherford is likely to bide his team and search for the correct deal.
Top Ten Remaining UFAs
Before NHL free agency opened up this summer, PHR published a list of the top-50 NHL UFAs. Two weeks into the offseason and the majority have signed deals—leaving 18 out of 50 still looking for a new NHL contract. Below are the top ten players still on the market:
[initial writeups credited to PHR’s Gavin Lee]