Minor Moves: Gravel, Gibson, Gustafsson
The Los Angeles Kings have come to an agreement with another one of their restricted free agents, signing Kevin Gravel to a one-year two-way contract worth $650K. Interestingly, Gravel had elected arbitration and was scheduled for a hearing on August 2nd, but instead took the league minimum on a one-year deal. The team did not release the guaranteed or AHL salary, likely part of why he settled.
Gravel played 49 games for the Kings last season in his first extended look with the team, registering seven points in just over 14 minutes a night. With the departure of Brayden McNabb to the Vegas Golden Knights, Gravel will likely be asked to play a bigger role and could even find himself in a full-time gig. He is still waivers exempt however, giving the team options if they think someone else is a better option on the bottom pairing.
- The New York Islanders have signed goaltender Christopher Gibson to a one-year two-way deal, bringing him back to battle with new acquisition Kristers Gudlevskis for an AHL role. In just seven games last season Gibson recorded a .912 save percentage but hasn’t been able to show the potential that made him a second-round pick in 2011. Just 24 he’s still developing as a netminder, but will have to make big strides soon if he wants to make an impact at the NHL level.
- The Chicago Blackhawks have re-signed Erik Gustafsson to a one-year deal, a contract that will send him to unrestricted free agency next summer should he not get into 39 games in the NHL this year. After playing 41 contests in 2015-16 with the Blackhawks and recording a solid 14 points, Gustafsson spent the entire season in the AHL in 2016-17. While he again showed off his offensive upside while there, scoring 30 points in 68 games, it was a disappointing year for him to not make it back to the NHL. Now with Niklas Hjalmarsson in Arizona and Brian Campbell still unsigned, there could be an opportunity for him to step up and fill a full-time role. With depth options like Michal Rozsival not being an ideal option on a full-time basis, the Blackhawks could look to newcomer Jan Rutta along with Gustafsson and Ville Pokka as potential options.
Free Agent Profile: Andrei Markov
Generally speaking, there isn’t much of a market for 38-year-old defensemen with plenty of mileage on them. However, Andrei Markov is looking to buck that trend and is currently the most prominent blueliner remaining on the open market.
Markov has been with the Canadiens since they drafted him in the sixth round (162nd overall) back in 1998. Montreal went into last season looking to reduce his role and ice time after he logged nearly 24 minutes per game the previous year. They did just that for the majority of the campaign but by the end, he was back on the top pairing, something that carried through into the postseason.
Despite missing 19 games due to a groin muscle injury, Markov still had a fairly productive season, collecting 36 points (6-30-36) in 62 contests, ranking his 16th league-wide in points per game. He followed that up by logging over 26 minutes per night in the playoffs, showing he can still handle a big role when he needs to.
It’s a combination of those two factors that have Markov continuing to push for a two-year deal, something that would have seemed highly unlikely just a few months ago. At this point, there have been no takers which is why he’s still a free agent.
Potential Suitors
The Canadiens are the obvious one here. GM Marc Bergevin has publicly stated that they would like to bring him back and Markov said after the season that he would like to return. While they added Karl Alzner in free agency, he doesn’t exactly replace the offensive production that Markov brings to the table. However, Montreal is only willing to offer him a one-year deal and last week, Bergevin voiced some frustration over the asking price.
Assuming that Markov isn’t likely to sign with a rebuilding team at this stage of his career, his market is limited to teams with postseason aspirations and a fair amount of cap or budget space available. That’s a fairly small list overall.
Among the teams on that list would be the Oilers, who have the money for one year before Connor McDavid’s contract kicks in and they’ll be without a key cog in Andrej Sekera to start the season so there’s an important role that Markov could fill. Florida is looking to rebound after a tough 2016-17 season and have the cap space to work with although signing him would push their defensive payroll close to $29MM. The Devils have plenty of cap space and could up the ante financially but given where they are in their rebuilding process, Markov isn’t going to be the player that pushes them over the top.
Projected Contract
Last month, we projected a one-year, $5MM deal for Markov with Montreal, who ranked 14th on our top-50 list. Given the last of options and the unwillingness of teams to give him his two-year, $12MM asking price, there’s a good chance that his new contract will still come in at or around that dollar value. The bigger question at this point is whether he’ll return to the only NHL team he has ever played for or if he’ll look to finish his career elsewhere.
Sabres To Wait On Sam Reinhart Extension
While new GM Jason Botterill and the Sabres front office are reportedly working diligently on an extension for star center Jack Eichel in hopes of having a deal done this summer, they aren’t placing the same emphasis on a new contract for a fellow young forward. With one year remaining on his entry-level contract, it seems that the Sabres are content to let Sam Reinhart reach restricted free agency next off-season before working out a new deal.
Reinhart, the #2 overall pick in 2014, has not yet performed to the same level as Eichel, the #2 overall pick in 2015, or even the Winnipeg Jets’ Patrik Laine, the #2 overall pick in 2016. While Reinhart has certainly been an important part of the Buffalo offense the past two years, it seems that the jury is still out on his long-term value. Reinhart has played in 79 games in each of the past two seasons, racking up 42 and 47 points respectively. While that is a nice contribution, a near-number one pick is expected, at the very least, to register 20 goals and 20 assists in a season, which Reinhart has yet to do. While Reinhart’s two-way game is coming along nicely, he has also been abysmal at the face-off dot. Reinhart simply has a ways to go to reach his potential and is thus not a priority to re-sign with a year remaining.
None of this is to say that Reinhart is not a valued member of the current and future Sabres, only that he has not reached the level of some of his teammates. A new deal for RFA goalie Robin Lehner and an extension for Eichel, two players that simply play larger roles in Buffalo, are taking precedence. However, when next summer roles around, Reinhart will get his fair share of attention. Still just 21 years old, Reinhart is a power play weapon and an expert sniper. Botterill acknowledged that he’s “excited with Sam”, but added “I don’t think something from a contract standpoint will be happening this summer”. Reinhart has another year to show that he’s still growing as a player and is worth perhaps more than what he’s accomplished so far, and that opportunity may just work out in his favor.
Islanders Sign Goalie Kristers Gudlevskis
A move that fell way under the radar during the July 1st free agent frenzy was the New York Islanders acquisition of young goaltender Kristers Gudlevskis from the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Isles traded a young player of their own, forward Carter Verhaeghe, to secure the restricted free agent rights to the Latvian keeper. Now, New York has taken the next step toward bringing Gudlevskis in, by coming to terms on a new contract. The team announced a one-year, two-way deal with their new goalie, which is expected to be worth the $650K minimum at the NHL level.
While Gudlevskis has NHL upside, the contract does make sense for both sides. The Islanders still have both Thomas Greiss and Jaroslav Halak under contract for next season and the last thing they want is to have to juggle three goalie like they did in the past with J-F Berube. Gudlevskis is still only 24 as well, and they want him facing shots regularly with the AHL’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers, where he will likely get the majority of starts over Christopher Gibson, Stephon Williams, or Eamon McAdam.
However, Gudlevskis could have a much greater role than AHL depth as soon as this season. The Islanders have not been shy about the fact that Halak is available in a trade and, should another team lose their starter and be on the lookout for a stopgap, Halak would be a popular choice. This could vault Gudlevskis into the backup role in 2017-18. Even if that doesn’t happen, Halak is in the final year of his deal and will almost surely walk in free agency. Unless the Isles are unhappy with Greiss and are looking to replace him as starter or bring in a “1B”-type backup, Gudlevskis could move into the backup role next year. No one knows exactly when top goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin will cross the Atlantic, so Gudlevskis could be in line for a long-term NHL job. In his three NHL regular season appearances, the young keeper has been phenomenal, posting a .959 save percentage and 1.37 GAA. It’s a small sample size, but Islanders fans hope to see more of the same when Gudlevskis is called upon in the near future.
PHR Originals: 7/3/17 – 7/9/17
Here’s a look back at some of the original content from PHR last week.
- Holger writes about how the Rangers may want to figure out how to pay Ryan McDonagh as he’s only a couple years away from free agency. Currently playing for the Rangers at a bargain, McDonagh may be off to another spot should the Blueshirts not have the cap room to pay him.
- What else could a back-to-back champion need in order to three-peat? Brian offers the Penguins scouts the Pens as to what they should be looking for to keep their dynasty running into a third consecutive season.
- Zach wonders if the San Jose Sharks need to make another move to bolster a roster now missing mainstay Patrick Marleau.
- Seth profiled Jaromir Jagr to see what a team would be getting with the 45-year-old who still appears to have a little bit left in the tank.
- Mike showed how many players are still being compensated by their former team who paid them to go away.
- In addition to hosting his weekly chat, Gavin asked our readers which available free agent was the best choice for teams seeking help.
- Finally, I looked to see if both the qualitative and quantitative data really show that the Chicago Blackhawks’ window is closing. Though some of the numbers are harsh, I think that things are not as grim as many want to believe.
PHR Mailbag: Duchene, Kessel, Hurricanes, Bruins
We’ve been taking your off-season inquiries over the weekend in the comments and using #PHRMailbag on Twitter. Here are some questions and answers to ponder:
Conorsoxfan: Is Matt Duchene still going to be moved? What about Landeskog? Are the Avs waiting for the right offer or are they holding on to all their assets for now?
We received several questions about Matt Duchene and for good reason. The Avalanche have been speaking with teams since the Trade Deadline about moving the talented forward and Duchene himself is on record as saying that he is open to a move, but months later he is still in Colorado. It seems that GM Joe Sakic has a very specific (and lofty) return in mind and is hesitant to move Duchene without getting exactly what he wants. That return certainly includes a young, proven defenseman, which is not exactly a commodity that most teams are eager to move. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Carolina Hurricanes seem like they have the best chance of meeting Sakic’s demands, as both teams are loaded with young, NHL-ready defenseman. However, the rumor that Colorado rejected a deal for Travis Hamonic that included Duchene makes you wonder if Sakic is searching for a caliber of player that is simply unavailable. It would be best for Duchene, the Avs, and the rest of the NHL trade market if a deal would get done sooner rather than later, but don’t be surprised if Duchene is still a talking point at the next Trade Deadline.
As for Gabriel Landeskog, rumors of his deaparture have definitely been on the back burner this summer after he too was hot topic at the Trade Deadline. Although the Avalanche are coming off a historically bad season, they seem to be playing it safe with their rebuild. They have not sold off all of their veteran pieces, nor have they operated like a team that’s pushing for a playoff spot. Their only major additions this season are a backup goaltender, Jonathan Bernier, and a low risk-high reward gamble, Nail Yakupov. They got potentially the best player in the draft at #4 overall in defenseman Cale Makar, but he is at least two seasons away from seeing NHL ice time. It seems that Sakic is content with keeping his roster intact and slowly adding in younger players and moving out older pieces. That type of status quo strategy would seem to indicate that Colorado isn’t keen on losing its captain unless the return could truly change the course of the franchise. Especially if Duchene does end up traded, don’t expect Landeskog to follow. He’s likely to remain in Colorado for the time being.
@Wings16Canes13: When and will Pittsburgh trade Kessel? Or does another coach have to go first?
It always seems like there’s some controversy surrounding Phil Kessel. This question alludes to rumors coming out of Pittsburgh that the uber-talented winger and head coach Mike Sullivan don’t see eye-to-eye on many things. Moreover, it’s been said that assistant Rick Tocchet acted as go-between for the two these past two seasons, and with Tocchet likely headed to Arizona as the head coach of the Coyotes, the relationship between Kessel and Sullivan could get worse. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins are also back-to-back Stanley Cup champs, with both Kessel and Sullivan playing major roles in each title. Neither is likely to be on the move any time soon, especially not because they dislike each other. It may not be the most comfortable locker room, but the two will learn to live with each other and any struggles for the Penguins in 2017-18 will be attributed to Stanley Cup hangover, not a feuding coach and player. With that said, Kessel has a $6.8MM cap hit for five more years, which could cause cap trouble down the road for the Penguins, while the team has also shown a willingness to move on from head coaches after just a down season or two. Both Kessel and Sullivan could be gone in a few years, but it’s impossible to know which first and when, only that it’s highly unlikely to be this year.
mikedickinson: Hurricanes are loaded on defense and have three kids who can play in the AHL as well. They aren’t trading any of their top 4. Can they trade from their strength to address a weakness (center)? Also, JVR to Raleigh to play with his brother?
The Carolina Hurricanes boast one of the youngest, deepest, and most talented defensive corps in the entire league. All-Star Justin Faulk leads a group that includes 2015 #5 pick Noah Hanifin, 2012 fourth-rounder Jaccob Slavin, 2013 third-rounder Brett Pesce, 2014 #7 pick Haydn Fleury, 2014 second-rounder Roland McKeown, and now the recently-acquired Trevor van Riemsdyk, not to mention dependable depth defender Klas Dahlbeck and 2016-17 AHL surprise Jake Chelios. There’s also 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean to consider as well, though he remains in juniors. That group has one thing in common: none of them are more than 26 years old. When the Hurricanes acquired van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights last month, many felt that the move indicated that Faulk, the team’s top right-shot defenseman, would be on the move. After all, the team has been linked to Matt Duchene as well as others as they try to bring their forward depth up to the same level as their defense. However, GM Ron Francis has stated since that he wants to keep his starters together. It also seems unlikely that he’s keen to move talented teenager Bean, leaving promising, but slowly developing players like Fleury, McKeown, and Chelios as his top trade chips from the blue line. None of those players will get a Duchene or similar-caliber player, but don’t be surprised if the ‘Canes use them to add some depth forwards this off-season or along the way next season. If Francis is posturing, then yes any of Faulk, Hanafin, Slavin, or Pesce could be used to bring in a big fish.
As for James van Riemsdyk, it is an interesting development to have his brother in Carolina, an up-and-coming team (like the Maple Leafs) that’s in need of an impact forward. JVR is entering the final year of his contract and it seems unlikely that Toronto will re-sign him, considering the expensive extensions coming down the line for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The question then becomes whether or not the Leafs are interested in moving him this off-season and whether the Hurricanes are willing to pay the price for his services this year when they can sign him next summer for free. If the Leafs look to deal him, Fleury or McKeown as the centerpieces likely won’t cut it. The Leafs are on the hunt for a top-pair right-shot to pair with Morgan Rielly and Faulk certainly fits the bill, but that’s a high price to pay for an impending free agent. I think you’re on to something with JVR and TVR teaming up in Carolina, but I think it could come at a lower price toward the Trade Deadline or via free agency next off-season.
mpfallon: Will the bruins make some big offseason moves?
This depends on your definition of “big”. Despite rumors that the Bruins have been looking into acquiring a top-four left-handed defenseman and a top-six winger, GM Don Sweeney has also made it clear that he doesn’t want to acquire players that will block Boston’s talented young prospects. College star Anders Bjork, 2015 first-rounder Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, who got a taste of the NHL last year, and possibly even Danton Heinen and Jesse Gabrielle will all compete with Frank Vatrano, Matt Beleskey, and recent signing Kenny Agostino for a top-nine spot on the left side, and Ryan Spooner could join the mix if the B’s prefer rookie Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson at third line center. The left wing battle could spill over to the right side as well, where top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will also look to make the team. On the blue line, Rob O’Gara, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon will all fight for the final spot on the left side, and the recent signing of Paul Postma could indicate that the team is okay with moving Kevan Miller to the left side to free up a spot for Adam McQuaid to continue to be a starter with Postma as the seventh man.
There is more than enough depth in Boston that the Bruins may make no moves for the rest of the off-season. Odds are that they do something, but likely not anything “big”. A trade for a left-shot defenseman, possibly a Nick Holden or Jonathan Ericsson, or the signing of a stopgap winger, like Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, or Alex Chiasson seems possible, but anything bigger could be a long shot. So the short answer to your question is no, they won’t make “big off-season moves”. They could make a small, but significant move or two, but chances are a big trade would come closer to the Trade Deadline after they give the kids a shot first.
Oilers Sign Defenseman Yohann Auvitu
The Edmonton Oilers have agreed to terms with former New Jersey Devils defenseman Yohann Auvitu. The team announced that it will be a one-year deal, but all other details are unknown as of now. The Frenchman made his North American debut in 2016-17, scoring four points in 25 games with New Jersey, and adding another 13 points in 29 games with AHL Albany.
Regardless of the value of the contract or the one-way/two-way nature, this could be a shrewd signing by GM Peter Chiarelli. The 27-year-old Auvituu had years of success as a two-way defenseman in his native France and in the Finnish Liiga before making the jump last year. A smooth skater with excellent puck possession ability and great hockey intelligence, Auvituu played competently for the Devils right off the bat.
However, the Oilers have quite a few defenseman under contract already and Auvitu has his work cut out for him to make the Opening Night roster. Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, and Darnell Nurse are locks to begin the year as starters, with Eric Gryba and Matt Benning likely to join them, and Andrej Sekera coming back from injury at some point early in the season to take back his top-four spot. Thus, Auvitu will have to battle with Mark Fayne, Ryan Stanton, and well-regarded prospect William Lagesson for the number seven spot to begin the season and then hope to hold on to it after Sekera’s return. However, worst case scenario, Auvitu will provide solid depth for the Oilers in the AHL and make several spot starts throughout the 2017-18 season.
Free Agent Profile: Jaromir Jagr
Not many believed that Jagr would be left without a contract over a full week into July. While many Florida fans believed GM Dale Tallon was looking to impress his vision on the franchise in an aggressive way, a return at a reduced cost seemed possible. Barring that, Jagr was sure to draw interest from offense-starved squads. He was listed as our 13th best available UFA for a reason, and yet, there’s been little to no chatter on the Czech star.
Jagr has seen a dip in his value, undeniably. He scored 11 less goals than the previous season; that said, he’s still a lock for 40 points. He’s slowed down quite noticeably, and one can only imagine that is the crux of his issue in attracting suitors. His vision and hands are still world-class, but his speed is an encumbrance to whichever line he’s on. That said, he’s a positive impact player in terms of analytics and fancy possession stats. If you look at his HERO chart (a handy bar-graph representation of advanced stats such as shots suppressed and generated), he performs well above the “prototypical” second-liner. No one in the analytics community seems to understand how such a consistent performer can be left unclaimed at this date. People constantly criticize players like Jagr for poor defensive qualities. There is an element of truth to these claims, as he is certainly hustling harder going north than south. But results, and actual goals against for his lines over the years, show that perhaps he knows something we don’t.
The game is changing, and with faster teams heading deeper into the playoffs, Jagr’s ability to fend off attackers and maintain a cycle is less valuable than it was previously. More rush play, more dump and chase, and less east-west movement through the neutral zone is the way many teams are hoping to push the pac and tilt the ice in their favor. Signing Jagr doesn’t fit that trendy ideology, and that’s the main holdup at this juncture. The amount of teams who are willing to slow the game down, even just on special teams, are becoming fewer and fewer. Ultimately, he will find a home, but it could be a drastic reduction in pay and icetime. Jagr was already getting acclimated to a sheltered role with short shifts, but he may be even more of a utility skater in his new home.
If for nothing else, Jagr is a magician on the powerplay and can pass the puck with ease. He would be a wonderful asset merely as a leader, whose experience and off-ice attributes would benefit the growth of younger players.
Potential Suitors
We originally projected that Jagr would return to the Florida Panthers, as we also believed would be the case for Thomas Vanek. We were wrong on both fronts, as Dale Tallon has opted instead for a massive roster shakeup. Jagr quipped on Twitter that he had no calls this July 1st, although that claim may merely be an attempt to garner greater interest.
A New Jersey reunion might be in the cards. They finished 29th in goals for and Jagr could be relegated to 3rd-line duty with a healthy roster after all of GM Ray Shero’s shuffling. He’s certainly not going to lead the team in scoring, but in the tough Metro division it’s difficult to see them making the playoffs anyway. In what should be a year to build upon, and with multiple youngsters (Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha) looking to cement themselves in the league, what better role model than Jagr to provide leadership and calm? The team could also do to add NHL proven forwards – they have the second fewest organizational contracts at 33, and many are not ready for prime-time.
Although they’re not the ideal landing spot, the New York Islanders seemingly always need a little extra fire power. They too have the disadvantage of trying to survive in the high-flying Metro, and Tavares could use another piece on the powerplay to bring it back to respectability (they finished with a 15% conversion rate in 2016-17). Again, his leadership abilities on a relatively young squad would provide a good example. He can also still manufacture chances on his own, and outside of Tavares, the team still struggles with that for long stretches. Pair him with one of their many two-way forwards, such as Josh Bailey, and his minimal defensive shortcomings won’t be as impactful. Cap room on an internal basis is an issue, but Jagr is getting cheaper by the day.
Many teams could take a flier on a one year deal. At 45 years-old, it would be highly unlikely to make a significant commitment to him. Arizona and Colorado could both certainly use the offensive help, but they both moved on from their own free agent old-timers in Shane Doan in Jarome Iginla, so both seem unlikely. Carolina already added a greybeard in Justin Williams, but scoring depth couldn’t hurt there. Vancouver is already incredibly old, so why not double down at this point and help out your special teams? And there’s always the possibility that Jagr finally decides to take a paycut to chase after a final championship. It has been since 1992 for him.
Expected Contract
Jagr will continue to wait away in free agency limbo for some time. This may be his final contract, but it’s difficult to determine how important competitiveness of the team will be to him. I think he stays in the East, namely New Jersey, for one year at a measly $1.75 MM. It won’t delay the rebuild, which is necessary in Newark, but it will keep the team just above water in the division. I’m not certain Shero wants to gamble on a total tank, as we saw how well that worked for Colorado in the recent draft. They ultimately need proven forwards to round out the roster, and the price is right to buy low.
Will The San Jose Sharks Make A Move?
It’s hard to make an argument for any other team in the NHL as having a less exciting start to the 2017 off-season than the San Jose Sharks. Yes, the Sharks are just a year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance and have re-signed Norris Trophy-winner Brent Burns as well as Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton, and Martin Jones since then. You can get excited about new deals for Ryan Carpenter and Tim Heed last month too if you like. Yet, other than re-signing their own players, what have the Sharks added to their 2017-18 squad?
We know what they’ve lost. Patrick Marleau, a career-Shark and the franchise leader in goals (power play, short-handed, and even strength), points, and games played, is now a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. David Schlemko, a 2016 free agency addition, was selected by the Vegas Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft and then flipped to the Montreal Canadiens. Micheal Haley (Florida Panthers) and Buddy Robinson (Winnipeg Jets) are also gone.
The only additions for San Jose thus far, as they look to plug the holes formed by lost free agents as well as improve upon their 2016-17 performance: left wing Brandon Bollig and goaltender Antoine Bibeau. Bollig, 30, is a physical, fourth-line caliber forward, but doesn’t produce enough on a consistent basis to be a regular player. Bollig hit his career-high in points in 2013-14 with the Chicago Blackhawks when he scored 14 points in 82 games. Soon after, he was traded to the Calgary Flames, where he scored just nine points in 116 games over two seasons before being buried in the AHL for the entirety of the 2016-17 season. The big winger posted 11 goals and 11 assists in 60 games for the AHL’s Stockton Heat, but still brings little to the the table for the Sharks other than grit and experience. As for Bibeau, the 23-year-old keeper was not tendered a qualifying offer by the Toronto Maple Leafs after a disappointing season. Bibeau had an .894 save percentage and 3.08 GAA in 32 regular season appearances for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies and performed even worse in his one playoff game. Bibeau had clearly fallen behind Garret Sparks and Kasimir Kaskisuo to fifth in the Leafs’ organizational depth chart, and so he was not retained. In San Jose, Bibeau will be no greater than fourth behind Jones, Aaron Dell, and Troy Grosenick and may never get another NHL start.
Bollig and Bibeau, two players destined for the AHL, are not exactly an inspiring pair, which begs the question: will the Sharks make another move? The team is far from perfect and could use some help. Jones and Dell proved to be a solid duo last season and the blue line is as deep as any in the NHL, but San Jose is not without needs up front. The Sharks ranked just 19th in scoring last season, and also boasted on of the worst power play’s in the NHL, below average face-off numbers, and poor possession stats. Burns (a defenseman) was the team’s leading scorer last year and tied for the team lead in goals, while the since-departed Marleau was fifth in scoring and third in goals. The rest of the top five scorers – Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, and Joe Thornton – will return, but the 38-year-old Thornton is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, an injury that occurred after he scored all *seven* of his goals. Beyond those three forwards, the production dropped way off in 2016-17 to the likes of disappointments such as Mikkel Boedker and Joel Ward and young, developing players like Chris Tierney and Tomas Hertl. The Sharks have a clear need for secondary scoring, especially with Marleau gone, and could use a power play catalyst as well. Brandon Bollig is not going to cut it and a full season of Jannik Hansen, acquired at the Trade Deadline, likely won’t either.
Top options for the Sharks include Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Jiri Hudler, while taking a waiver on a veteran like Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, P.A. Parenteau, or Mike Ribeiro or on a younger player like Alex Chiasson or Brandon Pirri could work as well. Given the Sharks’ scoring needs, their sufficient cap space, and the complete dullness of their off-season to this point, perhaps maybe two of those players could find their way to San Jose. If not, the Sharks do have pieces to make a move to acquire a scorer, potentially a Matt Duchene or Evander Kane, if they so choose. One way or another, GM Doug Wilson needs to do something, and quick, or not only will he have a team that has surely gotten worse since the end of the season, but he will have a disappointed fan base on his hands as well.
Free Agent Profile: Thomas Vanek
We are a week into free agency and a top ten member of the class is still available. Thomas Vanek, ranked eighth among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, still remains unsigned to the surprise of many. Vanek was a free agent last summer as well, after having the final season of a three-year $19.5MM contract with the Minnesota Wild bought out. While there were questions about his game then as well, and an apparent lack of interest that led to a one-year, $2.6MM deal with the Red Wings (a 60% drop in value from his $6.5MM AAV with the Wild), there was still sufficient enough demand that Detroit felt they had to lock him up right away on July 1st. This year? Not so much.
The strange thing about Vanek’s 2017 scenario is that he is coming off a strong, redeeming campaign. Rather than last summer, when he was fresh off the worst season of his career and a buyout, Vanek instead entered the free agent market this year with a 38-point season under his belt, seven more points in six less games than 2015-16. Vanek played extremely well in Detroit, posting 15 goals and 23 assists in 48 games, creating plenty of buzz around his trade deadline status. Although rumors swirled that Vanek would like to re-sign with the Red Wings, the team nevertheless got what they could for him, sending Vanek to the Florida Panthers for Dylan McIlrath and a third-round draft pick. In Florida, Vanek added two goals and eight assists in 20 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs and Vanek was out of time to show off for teams in need of scoring this summer.
Apparently, he needed to do more in 2016-17. With 697 points in 885 NHL games, Vanek’s history as an elite scorer is well established. A two-time 40-goal scorer and power play wizard, who has twice in his career topped a point-per-game pace for a whole season, there is little doubt about Vanek’s track record of creating offense. However, there are questions as to just how fast that offensive ability is slowing down. Vanek is certainly no longer a threat for 40 or even 30 goals, nor does he sit atop the league in man-up production any more. While he seemingly proved in Detroit that he can still deliver 40 or 50 points, he also looked slower up and down the ice and lacked the same quickness and creativity in the offensive zone that he used to have. The lack of interest could also be due to a noticeable drop-off in defensive ability. Vanek was never a Selke candidate, but he has always played a sound two-way game. As he has slowed down the past two years, his defensive stats have dropped off and he often looked solely focused with keeping up on offense, rather than playing a complete game. Endurance, and all that it entails in the back-and-forth game of hockey, simply seems to be an issue for Vanek and is unlikely to improve.
Nonetheless, 48 points is 48 points and there is a reason why Vanek was ranked #8 out of all free agents. The shooting ability and offensive instincts are still there for the 33-year-old, and 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr is still making that skill set work in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time before Vanek signs somewhere, but just like last summer, it appears as if it could be another bargain for a player whose age and pace of play seemed to be blown out of proportion while his experience and offensive contribution are under-rated.
Potential Suitors
We originally projected that Vanek would return to the Florida Panthers, who were in need of scoring help, especially with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith now in Las Vegas. However, Dale Tallon and the Panthers went in a different direction, bringing back Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL and inking a different veteran scorer, Radim Vrbata. Like Vrbata and Jagr, Vanek seems best-suited for one-year or short-term deals the rest of the way, especially if he’s struggling to establish his value. Who could use a short-term scorer? A return to Detroit could make sense. The fit worked out great and there were talks of an extension prior to the deadline trade, so the two sides might see if Lightning can strike twice. The Red Wings lack much cap space and should be rebuilding, but GM Ken Holland might have missed that memo. Another possibility could be the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are still a contender out West, just one year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance, but have had a very quiet off-season and just lost a high-scoring veteran winger in Patrick Marleau. This year’s Western Conference Cup qualifier, the Nashville Predators, traded away a key forward in Colin Wilson and have more than enough cap space to squeeze Vanek in if they so choose. The Boston Bruins could use another scoring threat in the top nine and they might not mind having Vanek, notorious for his strong play against Boston during his years with the Sabres and Canadiens, on their side for once. Finally, don’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, who certainly don’t need to get slower, but who surely need more scoring with few dependable options left on the market.
Expected Contract
We predicted that Vanek would sign a one-year, $3MM deal this off-season, a logical next step after a bounce back season on a one-year, $2.6MM contract. That range still seems reasonable, unless the market really is as quiet as it seems and no one is willing to pony up that kind of money. The affordable contracts signed by aging scorers like Kris Versteeg (#26) and Ales Hemsky (#44) combined with the availability of Jagr (#13), Drew Stafford (#21), and Jiri Hudler (#40), doesn’t help Vanek’s cause. He’s not ready to retire and he won’t move overseas, but don’t be surprised if Vanek remains unsigned, holding out for market value, before finally signing for less than he did last summer.