Early Notes: Butcher, Neil, CHL
Will Butcher won’t be signing with the Colorado Avalanche before the August 15th deadline, and his impending free agency has the rest of the league looking back through their notes on the former Denver Pioneer. The two-way defender has some solid upside despite being a fifth-round selection, and should cause a bidding war not unlike the one Jimmy Vesey sparked last summer. Several teams will be interested in bringing the Hobey Baker award winner in, and he should have his pick of destination.
Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette caught up with Butcher’s agent Brian Bartlett, who told him that if the Penguins called “I’m sure we’d answer the phone.” Bartlett was clear in what he was looking for in Butcher’s first team, noting the Penguins solid track record developing college players and the fact that they’ve had (a bit of) recent success in the NHL. Butcher isn’t looking for a chance to compete in the NHL right away, but a spot to grow his young career.
- Chris Neil won’t be back in Ottawa next season, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be in the NHL. The 38-year old tough guy told Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun that he’s already received one-way offers from a few teams, but is waiting on the right fit for him and his family. Growing up and playing in Ontario for almost his entire life, any departure would be a new adventure for Neil and his young family.
- Craig Button of TSN is at Canada’s Under-17 development camp, and breaks down the three top bantam picks of the CHL. Peyton Krebs (WHL first-overall in 2016) Ryan Suzuki (OHL first-overall in 2017) and Alexis Lafreniere (QMJHL first-overall in 2017) all have incredible talent, and have a good shot to go high in their respective NHL drafts in a few years. Suzuki is on to particularly watch over the next few years, as the younger brother of Vegas first-round pick Nick Suzuki will be playing for the Barrie Colts alongside possible 2018 first-overall pick Andrei Svechnikov. Barrie was the worst team in the OHL this season, but with Suzuki and Svechnikov coming in they could be much improved right away.
- Speaking of prospects the NHL is set to hold a press conference with the Dallas Stars on Saturday, and Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News is expecting it to announce the location of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. The draft, which was held in Chicago this season, is a huge event that brings people from all corners of the hockey world together for more than a week. The top names like Svechnikov, Joe Veleno and Rasmus Dahlin are all extremely enticing prospects in what should be a very deep draft.
The Summer Of Cody Franson: Part II
It’s late in NHL free agency, midway through the summer months, and defenseman Cody Franson remains unsigned. Sound familiar? Just two years ago, the summer of 2015, the same exact thing happened and, if history is any indication, the waiting game is just beginning.
Fresh off the best season of his career in 2014-15, in which he posted a career-high 36 points with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators, who had acquired the highly sought-after commodity at the NHL Trade Deadline, Franson was expected to be a major player in free agency. Franson entered the market on July 1st at just 27 years old and ready to cash in on his recent success. Only, that isn’t what happened. Even in a relatively weak market for defenseman, highlighted by the likes of Mike Green, Andrej Sekera and Johnny Oduya, Franson could not find a deal to his liking. Perhaps he priced himself out of the range that many teams were willing to pay for him or maybe he just didn’t get the fair market value offer he was expecting. Either way, the rumors surrounding Franson dragged on all summer. Franson stood alone as the major unsigned free agent through July, through August, and into September. It took Franson until September 10th, 72 days into free agency, to finally sign a deal. He agreed to terms with the Buffalo Sabres on a two-year, $6.65MM contract. The deal came in at an annual average value of $3.325MM, less than the aging Kevin Bieksa and streaky Michael Del Zotto got and most comparable to Zbynek Michalek, whom Franson had played far superior than in 2014-15. Many has speculated that his negotiation wore on as he decided between a short-term deal with a contender or more money and more term from a team in a rebuild; in the end he got less money and short term from the rebuilding Sabres.
After all the attention that Franson got two years ago, he could not have more invisible during his time in Buffalo. The poor fit with the Sabres was immediately evident, as Franson was denied a major role on the power play, where he had become a big-time weapon in Toronto, and was given nearly five minutes less ice time than he had with the Maple Leafs. Frason also never seemed to settle into a consistent role or on a specific pairing. Between a lesser role and ongoing injury issues, 2015-16 was the worst season of Franson’s career. Although limited to just 59 games, Franson nonetheless scored less than half of the 36 points he had registered in 78 games with the Leafs and Predators the year before. He also saw a massive drop-off in his defensive stats like hits and blocks. Buffalo fans were hoping for a rebound year when Franson returned to full health in 2016-17, but it did not come. Despite being given more ice time, the 6’5″, 224-lb. defenseman often looked sluggish on the ice, as if he had resigned to the fact that joining the Sabres was a bad choice and was simply playing to get through the season and get back on the market. Despite playing in nine more games this season than last and seeing the ice more often in each contest, Franson finished with only two more points than in 2015-16. Overall, the past two seasons in Buffalo were the worst of his career.
Perhaps teams took notice of Franson’s lack of involvement and apparent frustration in Buffalo, because there has not been much noise surrounding his availability this summer. The major difference between this off-season and the 2015 off-season in terms of Franson’s availability is that the rumor mill has not exactly been churning these last few weeks. In 2015, it was clear that the Sabres were just one of several teams courting Franson, with others like the Boston Bruins, New Jersey Devils, Edmonton Oilers, and Vancouver Canucks hot on the trail all the way until the bitter end. This year, there has hardly been a whisper about Franson. This comes after he surprisingly stayed in Buffalo beyond the Trade Deadline as well, even though there was no doubt that he planned to leave this summer. Considering the size and strength that Franson brings, his track record as a legitimate top-four two-way defenseman during his years with Nashville and Toronto, and his impressive possession numbers (even in Buffalo), there has to be some other reason that Franson remains unsigned with little indication of that status changing soon.
Even coming off back-to-back down seasons, Franson’s availabilty this late in the off-season is shocking, just as it was two years ago. The defensive market this off-season wasn’t impressive to begin with, especially on the right side, yet Franson still sits waiting for the right deal. Ranked #22 in PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, we expected that Franson would sign a two-year deal worth $5MM, down from his last deal with the Sabres but substantially more than what we felt many other blue liners on the market would demand. Last time around, Franson held out and got a multi-year deal, so it could still happen again. It was a toss-up between Franson and Michael Stone as the best right-handed defenseman behind Kevin Shattenkirk when it came to the 2017 free agent class, but with Stone re-signing in Calgary before July 1st and Shattenkirk going to the New York Rangers not long after, Franson has been the best righty on the market for some time. With Andrei Markov announcing that he will leave the NHL for the KHL next season, Franson is now the best of any defenseman available. So when will the action heat up? With almost no rumors to go off of, it very well could be another September signing for Franson, who may end up as an excellent value addition for some team. The Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils are desperate for some depth on the blue line, while the Los Angeles Kings were one of the few teams eyeing Franson at the deadline and have considerable depth issue of their own. There is always the Toronto Maple Leafs too; always on the lookout for that righty to pair with Morgan Rielly, Franson has always played his best in Toronto and could be a stopgap option in the top four.
There really is no clear answer to the enigma that is Cody Frason’s free agency. For the second time in a row, a seemingly solid defenseman has been unable to find a suitable contract and no one knows exactly why. He may end up signing a long-term deal to play a major role for an NHL team, or he could take a one-year “show me” deal as depth for a contender, or maybe he really has no takers and goes overseas. Who knows? One thing is for certain, no one will ever consider Franson to be priority free agent to watch for on July 1st ever again.
Cap Space: The Washington Salary Situation
The Washington Capitals have had a very interesting offseason. After being knocked out of the playoffs once again by the Pittsburgh Penguins, they’ve seen wholesale changes to their team structure and will head into 2017-18 with a much different look. Out went Justin Williams, Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner, Nate Schmidt, Daniel Winnik, Marcus Johansson and in came, well, almost nothing. The team did bring in Devante Smith-Pelly as a bottom-six option, but spent most of their time re-signing players like T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Dmitry Orlov to long-term deals that will keep them in town until at least 2023. Those extensions came with a price—not only were they forced to move Johansson in a salary dump to division rival New Jersey, but they’re in cap trouble heading into the season already.
When taking a look at the CapFriendly page for the Capitals, you will notice that they currently have about $4.1MM in space for the upcoming season. With that knowledge, you might surmise that they’ll be able to add at least a couple of veteran options to help them, or a bounce-back candidate or two. What you have to remember though, is that the Capitals are at their $70.9MM projected cap hit for just 17 players. A regular NHL roster holds 23, meaning there are several names coming up from the minors to fill the ranks.
Yes, the Capitals do have several players in the minor leagues who should be able to contribute positively this year like Christian Djoos, Nathan Walker and Chandler Stephenson, but each one comes with a cost of their own. Just because they’re on entry-level or two-way contracts doesn’t mean they’re free, and with each call up a minimum of $650K is added to that cap number. For some, like Jakub Vrana a top option to make the team after a solid season split between the AHL and NHL last year that number creeps even higher.
Even if you take that minimum $650K number for the six players to be added, it ends up putting the Capitals less than $200K under the cap to start the season meaning even a $1MM contract for a veteran option like Thomas Vanek would be out of their price range. Sure, there are ways they could work around the cap like any team but the clear picture here is that they’ve put themselves in quite a precarious position. Even if they work some magic to be right up against the cap with some help, any performance bonuses earned by those on entry-level deals will carry over to next season and put them in a tough position again when faced with the free agency of John Carlson. Washington relies on Carlson as a huge part of their defense corps, and seeing him walk because they didn’t have the money to pay him would set them back even further.
So when wondering if the Capitals can afford to make any more moves in free agency, or a trade that takes on a bit of salary don’t look at the $4.1MM cap space figure. They’re much closer than that in reality, and could be forced into relying on quite a young roster this season.
Will Butcher Will Not Sign With Colorado Before Deadline
According to Adrian Dater of BSNDenver, reigning Hobey Baker award winner Will Butcher will not sign with the Colorado Avalanche before the August 15th deadline, and instead will become a free agent. Dater quotes Butcher’s agent Brian Bartlett as saying they will head to free agency but are “not ruling out the Avalanche as a potential destination.” Like Jimmy Vesey last summer, Butcher will be granted free agency this summer after completing his four seasons in the NCAA.
A fifth-round pick by the Avalanche in 2013, the 22-year old Butcher has developed into a complete two-way defender in the college ranks capable of putting up big point totals and logging huge amounts of ice time. For the University of Denver this year, Butcher put up 37 points in 43 games as a key piece on the nation’s best team. The Pioneers would end up winning the NCAA Championship over UMD on the back of an incredible performance from Jarid Lukosevicius—who scored three goals in a single period to put his team ahead for good—but rode Butcher all year as the best player in the country.
Given the captain’s “C” in his senior season, Butcher was awarded nearly every accolade available for a defenseman including First Team All-American, Conference Player of the Year and Frozen Four Tournament All-Star. His collegiate career ends with 28 goals, 75 assists and 103 points, all three of which will put him in the top-10 all-time among Denver defensemen.
There is no guarantee that Butcher will make an impact at the next level, but he will certainly be pursued by teams around the league hoping his up-tempo style will translate to NHL success right away. He’ll have to sign a two-year entry-level contract, but the bonus structures will be part of what can woo him to a certain market. Teammates Troy Terry, Henrik Borgstrom and Dylan Gambrell are draft picks of Anaheim, Florida and San Jose respectively, though their may not be any leverage gained there since each one could also go this route and become a free agent when their college time is up. For what it’s worth, Butcher is a Wisconsin native who played in Madison growing up before joining the US Development Program and then the collegiate ranks.
Poll: Who Will Be The Most Cost-Effective Free Agent Forward Signed This Year?
Free agency is often a place where teams around the league overpay for depth additions that have little impact on their team. Even the top free agents available are often given too many years and too much money, especially heading into their declining years. Arguments can be made against several big earners from last year, with Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo, David Backes and Loui Eriksson all struggling at times throughout the 2016-17 season. Each one is owed $6MM for at least four more seasons, carrying them into their mid-30s. While there were some good things to point out in each of their seasons, the contracts seem like they’ll be dragging their team down in just a few years.
On the other side though, there is the chance to get an incredible amount of production for extremely low prices if you’re willing to take a chance on another team’s castoff. Jon Marchessault signed with Florida for two years and just $1.5MM total, and proceded to put up a 30-goal season for the Panthers. Sam Gagner turned $650K into 50 points for the Columbus Blue Jackets, and a shiny new three-year deal with Vancouver this summer. There are bargains to be had every year, as long as you’re willing to take a chance.
This year, we’ve seen several aging veterans take extremely low-priced contracts after a buyout, and some restricted free agents hit the open market after not receiving a qualifying offer. Last year, Gagner and Marchessault easily paced the UFAs in terms of cost per point, but a 35-year old Radim Vrbata was great value even after factoring in the performance bonuses he earned.
So who will that title go to this year? Mike Cammalleri and Scott Hartnell are both getting just $1MM and can still play, while a player like Kenny Agostino could jump to the NHL and impress. There are also the remaining names like Jaromir Jagr and Thomas Vanek, who still don’t have a contract weeks into free agency. Vote below, and make sure you leave other options in the comments for people to discuss.
Who will be the most cost-effective UFA forward signed this year?
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Patrick Sharp 21% (129)
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Scott Hartnell 12% (74)
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Mike Cammalleri 11% (69)
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Jaromir Jagr 10% (62)
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Nail Yakupov 9% (56)
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Thomas Vanek 7% (44)
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Other 6% (35)
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Kenny Agostino 6% (34)
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Dominic Moore 5% (28)
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Alex Burmistrov 5% (28)
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Ales Hemsky 4% (27)
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David Desharnais 4% (27)
Total votes: 613
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Free Agent Profile: The Goalie Market
More than three weeks into free agency, there are still several big names available on the market. Among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, you can still find Thomas Vanek (#8), Jaromir Jagr (#13), Andrei Markov (#14), Drew Stafford (#21), Cody Franson (#22), and many more without NHL homes. What you can’t find is a single goalie on that list left unsigned. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find a single free agent goaltender that the casual hockey fan would recognize.
The following is list of available keepers who were on NHL contracts in 2016-17: Daniel Altshuller, Mantas Armalis, Sam Brittain, Mac Carruth, Ryan Faragher, Michael Garteig, Jonas Gunnarsson, Matt Hackett, Jake Paterson, Mackenzie Skapski, Colin Stevens, and Stephon Williams. Are none of those names standing out? They shouldn’t. Not one of those 13 players made a single NHL appearance last season and only Altshuller, Brittain, and Garteig even sat on an NHL bench. Of the group, only Hackett and Skapski have ever played in the NHL and neither one has suited up since 2014-15. The group leaves little to be desired.
This could explain why many other teams have decided to reach overseas for goalie depth this off-season, with the Nashville Predators bringing back Anders Lindback, the Minnesota Wild signing Niklas Svedberg, the Vegas Golden Knights signing Oscar Dansk, the Florida Panthers signing Harri Sateri and, most recently, the New York Rangers bringing in young Alexander Georgiev. Yet, even the foreign market is drying up. The top leagues in Sweden and Switzerland have nothing to offer net-needy NHL team, while the best remaining free agent goalies in the KHL and Finnish Liiga are 37-year-old Alexander Yeryomenko and 34-year-old Pekka Tuokkola respectively. Other KHL free agents like Riku Helenius, Drew MacIntyre, Justin Pogge, and Kevin Poulin are all former NHL wash-outs themselves who have done little to improve their stock overseas and don’t present much of an upgrade over many of the North American options.
So which keepers are the best of this rag-tag bunch? The short answer is that none are ready to make NHL starts any time soon. Every NHL free agent either spent time in the ECHL in 2016-17 or should have because of unsightly AHL numbers, whereas none of the KHL free agents were particularly impressive this past season either.
Poulin is the most likely of any to earn an NHL contract for next season, as he has more NHL experience than everyone else on this list put together – with just 50 appearances. The 27-year-old went back and forth between the New York Islanders, who drafted him in 2008, and their AHL affiliate, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, from 2010 to 2015. In that time, Poulin had an 18-25-3 record with an .899 save percentage and 3.07 GAA. While it isn’t the best NHL stat line, it isn’t the worst either. Outside of the NHL, Poulin has always posted a save percentage of .909 or better, including a .909 exact and 2.66 GAA with Barys Astana of the KHL last year. For a team in need of a goalie, even just for AHL depth, Poulin isn’t a terrible option.
Hackett would be next on the list and also has the second-most NHL games played. Once considered the “goalie of the future” for the Minnesota Wild after a spectacular rookie season in 2011-12, the now 27-year-old’s career has gone in the opposite direction. Pedestrian play in the AHL and inconsistency in his NHL efforts took Hackett out of the running as an NHL starter, but he’s still been able to find work as a third-string backup after Minnesota with the Buffalo Sabres and Anaheim Ducks. Even after an AHL season where he was passed up on the depth chart, saw only seven games of action, and posted poor numbers, Hackett still seems like a safe bet to find a new deal somewhere.
Beyond Poulin and Hackett, a contract for any of the other free agent goalies would come as a surprise. At 23 years old, Paterson is the youngest of the free agents and has put up strong numbers in each of his first two pro seasons. However, those numbers have come in the ECHL rather than the AHL. Paterson’s junior numbers in the OHL aren’t spectacular, so the competition level of the ECHL may simply be where he’s best suited. Nevertheless, he has the most room to grow of anyone available. On the flip side, the 37-year-old Russian keeper Yeryomenko is by far the most talented goalie available statistically. The KHL veteran was arguably the best goalie in the league last year, posting a .950 save percentage and 1.29 GAA in 37 starts. There is no reason to think that Yeryomenko is eyeing a move overseas at this point in his career nor that he could adjust to the NHL’s pace of play at his age, but if he is open to it, he could be a low-risk gamble as a stop-gap veteran backup in the AHL for some team.
Potential Suitors
Luckily, most NHL teams are not in dire straits in net that they should have to be taking a long look at the current free agent market. Nearly every viable name has already been scooped up and few teams have a pressing need. However, it never hurts to have several fallback options in net, and even teams with three or four solid players can end up scooping up that one extra keeper as the off-season goes on.
The one team that really must make a move is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yes, they have the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Sergei Bobrovsky, and promising young backup Joonas Korpisalo, but after trading Anton Forsberg away this summer, the Blue Jackets are lacking in depth. The only other goalie under contract is Matiss Kivlenieks, who is entering his first pro season out of the USHL. Kivlenieks is probably not suited to even start at the AHL level yet, nevertheless be the next man up for Columbus. The Blue Jackets could stand to add two goalie even, though their need is great enough that they could be scouring the trade market instead for their third-stringer.
Even after replacing Ryan Miller with Anders Nilsson in free agency, the Vancouver Canucks could still use another goalie. Thatcher Demko is a stud prospect and ready to carry the bulk of AHL starts, and Richard Bachman is a good veteran AHL option capable of making an NHL spot start too. However, should Jacob Markstrom or Nilsson, both injury-prone and relatively new to their 2017-18 roles, struggle or be sidelined, Demko or possibly Bachman will be ready to go, but without much reliable backup depth in Utica. Vancouver could simply re-sign Garteig, who was in the system last year, but may want to go with a superior talent given the unproven nature of their top three goalies at the NHL level.
Expected Contract
It might be a stretch to assume that any of the goalies remaining on the free agent market, NHL or international, will sign an NHL deal this summer. If they do, it will surely be a one-year, two-way deal worth the minimum $650K or simply a minor league AHL deal. There’s not much left to offer on the market, but with some holes still in need of filling across the league, understanding the strengths and many, many weaknesses of the goalie market could help to make sense of any upcoming deals.
Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin
With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.
The Numbers
Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.
Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.
Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ‘decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.
Potential Comparables
Here are some comparable players and their contracts.
Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.
Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.
Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.
Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.
Projection
Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?
Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.
Free Agent Profile: Drew Stafford
It wasn’t that long ago that Drew Stafford was viewed as a quality second line winger. However, a subpar 2016-17 campaign still has him on the market as we hit the three-week mark of free agency.
Stafford entered the season coming off a 21 goal campaign, his best since 2010-11, the year he set career highs in goals and points with Buffalo. If he could have repeated those results, he’d have entered the open market as one of the higher scoring wingers available. However, some extra depth on the wing in Winnipeg, as well as a tough start to the season, set the stage for a year to forget.
The 31-year-old made it through just five full games to start before suffering an upper body injury that kept him out of the lineup until mid-November. He was reinserted into a top six role upon his return but the leash was short. Accordingly, by the time January hit, he was on the fourth line with some regularity.
Stafford wound up being close to an afterthought at the trade deadline although Boston took a flyer on him for a sixth round pick. That wound up being a very beneficial pickup as he rediscovered his scoring touch, picking up eight points in 18 games the rest of the way while adding a pair of goals in six postseason contests. Despite the stronger finish, his overall numbers still left a lot to be desired as he had just 21 points overall, the lowest full-season output of his career.
As a result, instead of landing another contract early on, Stafford now finds himself still on the open market and in somewhat of a waiting game. Many teams are now focused on dealing with their core restricted free agents or assessing whether they want to make any more depth moves which has him on the outside looking in for the time being. Once some of those decisions are made though, his market should start to pick up somewhat.
Potential Suitors
The Bruins are known to still have some interest in him although they want to get through David Pastrnak’s new contract before getting something done here. While they have several intriguing youngsters who they expect to contend for a roster spot, GM Don Sweeney may be wise to add some form of veteran insurance in case not all are ready to contribute right away and Stafford would make some sense in that role.
Stafford’s best fit at this point would be with teams that employ an offensive-minded third line or are simply looking for veteran depth. Washington fits both of those categories but their lack of cap space would make adding him a challenge unless he’s willing to take a contract close to the league minimum, something that doesn’t seem too likely at this time. Other teams that could have a spot in their top nine include the Kings, Flames, Panthers, and the Islanders.
Projected Contract
Stafford was ranked 21st in our Top 50 Free Agent List with a projected contract of two years and $4.5MM in total. While that would still represent a substantial drop-off from the $4.35MM cap hit on his last contract, it doesn’t seem likely at this point that he’ll come close to that on his next deal. A one year deal at $1.5MM is probably close to all he can get at this point but if he’s still on the market a month from now, even that might be a stretch as the calendar gets closer to training camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Mike Fisher
Mike Fisher is coming off a rebound season and has a proven track record of being a strong middle six center. Despite that, he remains unsigned so far in free agency although his case is a fair bit different than many of the others still on the open market.
The long-time Nashville forward struggled considerably in 2015-16 which, coupled with his age, led to some speculation that 2016-17 could be his final year. Instead, he slotted in nicely on their second line for most of the year, picking up his highest point total in three seasons along the way. That production did change in the playoffs though as he was unable to score in 20 games although he was dealing with an undisclosed injury for at least part of the postseason.
Even if his offensive numbers were to decline from the 42 points he put up, Fisher easily still has another couple of years in him as a third line pivot who is consistently above average at the faceoff dot. However, at 37 years of age, he hasn’t decided whether or not to play yet in 2017-18 and if he’d be willing to change teams if need be. At this point, that’s the hold up instead of there simply being less of a market than anticipated.
Potential Suitors
The obvious one here is Nashville. He has significant ties to the market and while the team hedged against him leaving by signing Nick Bonino from Pittsburgh, he’d still safely slide in on their third line while continuing to fill a big leadership role as well. Cap space shouldn’t really come into play here as the Preds have nearly $19MM in room with only Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson, and Austin Watson still to re-sign.
If he were to hit the open market and consider going elsewhere, he would be a strong fit for Pittsburgh’s present third line vacancy. Fisher would capable of moving up in a pinch if injuries strike but would provide some strong two-way play in their bottom six. The Canadiens are in dire need of help down the middle and currently have the cap room to make a significant offer if money would play a big factor. The Rangers haven’t exactly replaced Derek Stepan (traded to Arizona) yet either and while Fisher wouldn’t be expected to take on that top line role, he would still represent an upgrade over some of the other centers they have in the organization.
Projected Contract
Fisher ranked 18th in our Top 50 Free Agent Rankings and we projected a one-year, $3MM contract for him. Assuming he decides to return for 2017-18 instead of hanging up his skates, a deal around that amount is still fairly likely at this point.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Who Will Be The Top UFA In 2018?
The 2017 offseason is already at the point where people have started looking ahead. Despite big contracts still coming for Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Johansen and other restricted free agents, October can’t seem to come quick enough. Instead of ranking the top remaining free agents for this year (a poll that Jaromir Jagr won a few weeks ago) let’s look even further and start to project the summer of 2018.
Obviously, this is an extremely early version of this question as players will be re-signed, traded, and bought out within the next twelve months to make the hockey landscape completely different. Carey Price, once considered one of the top free agents for 2018 has already signed his huge extension, and most of the players on this list will join him.
That uncertainty should play a big role in your decision. Instead of just picking the top player on the list (which would make for a very boring poll in this case), decide who you think will actually get to free agency and be the top name on the market. Explain in the comments why you chose a certain player, or who else we needed to include in the poll.
Who will be the top UFA in 2018?
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John Tavares 66% (715)
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Evander Kane 5% (52)
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James van Riemsdyk 5% (50)
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John Carlson 4% (48)
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Cam Atkinson 4% (38)
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James Neal 3% (36)
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Rick Nash 3% (28)
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Patric Hornqvist 2% (21)
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Kyle Turris 1% (16)
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Mikko Koivu 1% (14)
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Tomas Tatar 1% (11)
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Brian Little 1% (10)
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Other 1% (10)
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Joe Thornton 1% (7)
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Josh Bailey 1% (7)
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Mikael Backlund 1% (6)
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Jonathan Marchessault 0% (5)
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Daniel Sedin 0% (4)
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Mike Green 0% (3)
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Henrik Sedin 0% (2)
Total votes: 1,083
[Mobile users click here to vote!]